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Fed rate hike fears trigger US stock sell-off EUR/USD ⬇️ GBP/USD ⬇️ AUD/USD ⬇️ USD/CAD ⬆️ XAU ⬇️ WTI ➡️ Since inflation does not seem to have peaked just yet, investors expect a mega rate hike of 75 basis points from the Federal Reserve on Thursday, which could bring the US economy to a recession. As a result, major US indices like S&P 500, Dow Jones and Nasdaq 100 have all declined. Meanwhile, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield kept breaking the record high since 2008, currently at 3.385%. Major currencies remained bearish, the Euro and Aussie dropped to near month-low, EUR/USD closed at 1.0408 and AUD/USD at 0.6923. With its GDP data underperforming in all variations, GBP/USD went further to a near 3-month low at 1.2134. Later today (14 June), the UK Office for National Statistics will provide labor market related data such as claimant count change and unemployment rate. Regarding the interest rate decision in the UK, forecasts have projected a 25 basis point increase from the Bank of England. The USD/CAD pair rose and stabilized at 1.290 level, before closing at 1.2897 - a near month-high. A series of US retail sales data will be released tomorrow, the market anticipated an accelerated growth in core retail goods, and general sales to slow down due to soaring oil prices. Crude oil mostly traded flat yesterday to a closing price of 120.93, but today saw a rebound from below 118 to over 121 a barrel. Gold futures were at 1,831.8, edging towards a near month-low of 1,820. More market information on Mitrade website.
NASDAQ:XAU
by Mitrade_official
Aussie sinks as risk sentiment slidesThe week ended with a disappointing US inflation report. Headline inflation in May rose to 8.6% YoY, up from 8.3% in April. Core inflation eased to 6.0%, down from 6.2%, but that was little comfort for the markets, which are showing signs of panic over entrenched inflation. The result was that risk appetite fell, sending the US dollar surging against the major currencies. With no sign of an inflation peak, it's clear that the Federal Reserve will have to keep its foot pressed to the floor when it comes to upcoming rate hikes. This makes it likely that the Fed will deliver 50-bp hikes in June, July and September. Just a couple of weeks ago the Fed signalled it would take a break in September, but that now seems a luxury it can't afford, given that inflation hasn't eased. There have been calls for the Fed to deliver a massive 75-bps salvo at Wednesday's meeting, but such a shock move seems unlikely, especially in the current turbulent economic environment. If Fed Chair Powell is looking to send a hawkish message to the markets, he could hint at the meeting press conference that a 75-bp increase is on the table if inflation doesn't ease. Such a warning would likely boost the US dollar. There are some key releases out of Australia this week, kicking off with NAB Business Confidence on Tuesday. The indicator slowed to 10 points in May, down from 16 in April. If the downtrend continues, the Australian dollar could continue to lose ground. This will be followed by Westpac Consumer Sentiment on Wednesday and the May employment report on Thursday. AUD/USD is testing support at 0.6973, followed by support at 0.6902 There is resistance at 0.7181 and 0.7110
by OANDA
1
Bitcoin worst crash everWe crashed through support and now we crashed even below the crash. If this is not the bottom we are going into a depression, never have we retested the previous cycle top high as a low in a bear market and we are damn near there. This entire market crash was planned and executed by the fed raising the DXY again after it already topped out twice. If they keep it up they are going to collapse the world economy and I don’t think they want that to happen, but if they short the collapse they get richer so what do they care it’s good for them. My opinion if you didn’t sell over a year ago this is definitley where you hodl and be patient the people that sold last night and today are the idiots who let us fall off support do not be like them and use this as a buying opportunity because like I said if we go lower then this the entire economy is going to be in a depression we literally can’t go any lower without crashing the entire economy they are playing with fire and it’s on purpose don’t be fooled this is mo accident or free market configuring this 18 month straight crash
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by celebratecrypto
1
BTC negating breakout could mean impending correctionINVESTMENT CONTEXT The epicenter of the Ukraine conflict is now Severodonetsk, where 70% of the strategically important eastern city had been captured by Russia, until a Ukrainian counterattack claimed it back The World Health Organisation (WHO) reported that there have been 780 confirmed monkeypox cases over the past three weeks in countries where the disease is not endemic The WTO dubbed the global risk for monkeypox as "moderate" U.K. sales in May fell 1.1% on a yearly basis, as consumers cut down on big-ticket items like furniture and electronics A global rush to secure lithium, nickel, cobalt and other key battery minerals from a handful of nations is sending commodity and battery prices to all-time highs Goldman Sachs senior chairman Lloyd Blankfein urged investors to "dial back" on negativity, seeing a rather possible "soft landing" for the economy PROFZERO'S TAKE ECB policy makers are clashing about when to stop reinvesting into the continent's government bonds, with some positing to act as early as this week. ProfZero keeps ECB - and now also Bank of England, BoE - policy making high on its radar, as but parts of the impending quantitative tightening have been priced by market In a rather choppy session, equities gave up much of the earlier gains on June 6 as bear momentum persisted. ProfZero concurs with The Economist on a recession in the making for 2023 or even 2024, as higher interest rates trickle down into costlier mortgages and liquidity dry-up for "zombie" corporates (i.e. firms that can't generate sufficient cash flow to make up for interest payments). Yet near-term breathers like China's reopening and the resilience of U.S. economy point to a rather mild crash. Will that be enough to absorb also the surge in commodity prices? Much of the answer lies in China, where Goldman Sachs just boosted forecasts May 20, June 1 and June 6: ProfZero called all BTC sell-offs indicating insufficient buy-side pressure. Now that the triangle trade is restored, a potential correction is brewing - a new call on leg (C) of short-term Elliott wave PROFONE'S TAKE ProfOne’s sees it about time to dig into container shipments, given that 90% of the world's goods are seaborne. Port bottlenecks, shortage of empty containers and land transport delays, worsened by Ukraine-Russia war and Chinese lockdowns, caused the well-known supply chains disruptions of 2021. Freight rates are in average five time higher now compared to pre-pandemic levels. While global carriers are enjoying the sixth straight quarter of record-high profits, prices do not see signs of abating. ProfOne agrees that China reopening and decline of consumer demand like in the U.K. could ease the situation, but there is no optimism about steep freight rates reduction just ahead of peak delivery season and ports congestion still at historically high levels PROFTHREE'S TAKE Building on China's Premier Li Keqiang warning in May that the economy is now facing bigger difficulties than those in 2020, ProfThree points out a contraction of China’s services activity for the third month in a row. In May, the Caixin gauge rose to 41.1 points after plunging to 36.2 in April, yet remained well below the 50.0 points level which separates growth from contraction. Referring to ProfZero’s recent reflection on the deflationary nature of services consumption, ProfThree is worried about the growing unemployment the sector is facing due to COVID-induced restrictions, and its effect on the economy. Profs are awaiting Chinese data on inflation due June 10, both PPI and CPI (Producers’ and Consumers’ Price Index, respectively). The print is considered one of the key factors in the People's Bank of China's decision on interest rates expected by the third week of June
CME:BTC1!
by ProfZero
Trading Index Futures?Entry: 4165, Stop loss: 4185, Take Profit: 4105 ( conservative ) 4080 ( radical ) If you're trading index futures I would be cautious of where to put your monies. I'm bearish for many reasons: - Increasing inflation, continued economic growth while feds are trying to put the flames out of the overheated economy, increasing interest rates to lower consumer and producer spending (businesses will eventually have lower earnings growth -- affecting investors sentiment in regards to EPS and dividends), and many many more.
BLACKBULL:SPX500Short
by charrison4300
$SPY's Approach to the DownsideWe are in a pennant right and the bottom of the pennant is part of the wedge from my previous analysis. As you see in the pennant, it'll likely test the sides and eventually break out. From here we have a couple scenarios: (1) we either break above the top line of the pennant and visit the downside from there or (2) it could go straight down. The scenario where it does break above the pennant would allow $SPY to test the supply & demand zone and consolidate within as I noted in my previous analysis. That consolidation essentially means we see SPY chop, before breaking down. That break into the purple supply & demand zone could have us likely topping out at 420-422 (see gold arrows). Remember, anything can happen here and as I'm showing you the graph on the 15m chart, but nevertheless, I believe we will sell off with respect to this zone after consolidation. Keep in mind, we also have strong put flow coming in with SPY for next month which is pretty bearish on the market too. The more we consolidate and the more we can't get above the zone just strengthens the bearish thesis that we'll be breaking downwards. On a side note, we have economic data this week like manufacturing numbers, jobless claims, services PMI, and Fed speeches which continues to create volatility in the price action.
AMEX:SPYShort
by theapearmy
2
Dollar pushes wobbly yen to 130The Japanese yen continues to lose ground, as USD/JPY has punched above the symbolic 130 line. In the North American session, USD/JPY is trading at 130.01 up 1.02% on the day. The US dollar is having its way with the yen this week as USD/JPY has surged 2.23%. The driver behind the yen's plunge is an upswing in US Treasury yields. The 10-year yield rose from 2.84% to 2.93% today, and as we have often seen, the yen finds itself at the mercy of the US/Japan rate differential and is sharply lower today. Most of the major central banks have embarked on rate-hike cycles in order to contain spiralling inflation, with the noticeable exception of the Bank of Japan. The BoJ has continued its ultra-accommodative policy, which it insists is needed to boost the fragile economy. BoJ Governor Kuroda has defended keeping interest rates low, saying that wages and service price inflation have remained modest. The BoJ continues to view cost-push inflation as transient and is not all that concerned with inflationary pressures, which are much lower than we are seeing in the other major economies. In the US, the Fed commenced quantitative tightening this week and the Fed continues to send out hawkish messages. Fed Governor Christopher Waller fired the latest hawkish salvo from the US central bank, saying he supported more rate hikes, even above the "neutral level", which is not supportive or restrictive for growth. The Fed estimates the neutral level to be around 2.5%, which leaves plenty of room for further hikes until the neutral level is approached. Fed Chair Powell has signalled that the Fed will deliver 50-bps hikes in June and July, followed by a pause in September. USD/JPY has broken past resistance at 1.2890 and 1.2973. The next resistance line is at 131.24 There is support at 128.01
by OANDA
Gold Is Staggering Near Key SupportGold surged earlier in the year as inflation raged and geopolitical worries grew. However bearish things seem to be happening since then. The first pattern on today’s chart is the March 8 high at $2,070. It was slightly below the August 2020 high of $2,075.28, resulting in a double-top pattern. The long period of time between the two peaks could mean that significant resistance is now in place. Second, consider how this year’s peak came shortly after gold escaped a triangle in late February . XAUUSD’s inability to follow through on that breakout suggests limited buying interest in the yellow metal. Third is the lower high in mid-April. So you have: a breakout one month, a rejection the subsequent month and a lower high the following month. If that wasn’t enough to dispirit the bulls, next came a sharp selloff that brought prices back to the 200-day simple moving average (SMA). The slide also landed gold near $1,800, an old high from 2011 and 2012. A slide back under this level could potentially trigger further selling -- especially if the 8-day exponential moving average (EMA) remains below the 21-day EMA. These patterns could be relevant with non-farm payrolls due on Friday and the next Federal Reserve meeting on June 15. TradeStation has, for decades, advanced the trading industry, providing access to stocks, options, futures and cryptocurrencies. See our Overview for more. Important Information TradeStation Securities, Inc., TradeStation Crypto, Inc., and TradeStation Technologies, Inc. are each wholly owned subsidiaries of TradeStation Group, Inc., all operating, and providing products and services, under the TradeStation brand and trademark. You Can Trade, Inc. is also a wholly owned subsidiary of TradeStation Group, Inc., operating under its own brand and trademarks. TradeStation Crypto, Inc. offers to self-directed investors and traders cryptocurrency brokerage services. It is neither licensed with the SEC or the CFTC nor is it a Member of NFA. When applying for, or purchasing, accounts, subscriptions, products, and services, it is important that you know which company you will be dealing with. Please click here for further important information explaining what this means. This content is for informational and educational purposes only. This is not a recommendation regarding any investment or investment strategy. Any opinions expressed herein are those of the author and do not represent the views or opinions of TradeStation or any of its affiliates. Investing involves risks. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is no guarantee of future performance or success. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss equal to or greater than your entire investment regardless of which asset class you trade (equities, options, futures, or digital assets); therefore, you should not invest or risk money that you cannot afford to lose. Before trading any asset class, first read the relevant risk disclosure statements on the Important Documents page, found here: www.tradestation.com .
OANDA:XAUUSD
by TradeStation
EURUSD : Fed interest, oversold, historic, simple 4.5Aggressive interest rate hikes HINTS from FED is causing USD to skyrocket. In contrast, ECB is hinting on stimulus end and interest hikes only after Q3 bond purchasing ends. But let's be practical. *RSI 14 on daily is extremely low *Connecting lows of drop shows support around 1.105 *Horizontal support stretching all the way back to 2003 shows strong support between 1.035 to 1.05, with multiple tests around 2015, 2016, 2020 most recently. Today's FED interest rate decision may cause volatility to retest ~1.08 as the EUR is extremely oversold. Consider the hikes from FED are already implemented in the price of the very high USD. On the other end we have really strong support around 1.035 which may be tested. Trade safe at time of volatility and always consider the worst case scenario. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Thank you so much for reading, it's highly appreciated. If you found my idea useful, please like and follow! It would mean the world to me. Always seek independent advise, research when trading and act with caution. -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Long
by Exactus
3
UK inflation soars to 9 per centThe British pound has taken a tumble after April CPI jumped to 9.0% YoY, up sharply from 7.0% in March. GBP/USD has fallen 100 points today and is trading at 1.2390 in North American trade. UK inflation continues to run at a 40- year high, and the cost of living crisis is undoubtedly keeping Finance Minister Sunak and BoE Governor Bailey awake at night. Core CPI didn't provide any relief, as it rose to 6.2%, up from 5.7% prior. This indicates that inflationary pressures are broad-based and aren't about to ease anytime soon. The only positive in the CPI release was that it was a bit lower than the forecast of 9.1%, but I'm sure few in the City of London are taking any solace from that tidbit. The BoE has essentially raised the white flag on the inflation front, saying that many of the factors at play, such as the Ukraine war and soaring energy costs are beyond the Bank's control. The BoE has warned that things could get worse, projecting that inflation will top 10% later this year and warning of a likely recession. Bailey & Co. are doing their best to catch up with the inflation curve as they aggressively hike rates while trying not to choke off economic growth. With the spectre of 10% inflation looming, confidence in the BoE may be ebbing. Like the Fed, the BoE has come under heavy criticism for not reacting to spiralling inflation quickly enough, and the 25-bps incremental hikes may not prove to be sufficient. The Fed has gone full throttle with a 50-bps hike and more to follow, and pressure is mounting on the BoE to follow suit. The US is also facing spiralling inflation, and Fed Chair Powell has signalled that the Fed will deliver 0.50% hikes in June and July. Former Fed Chair Bernard Bernanke weighed in on Fed policy, saying that it was a mistake for the Fed not to react earlier to rising inflation. Bernanke also warned that the US economy could face stagflation in the next year or two. GBP/USD has broken below support at 1.2436. Below, 1.2374 is under pressure There is resistance at 1.2557 and 1.2619
by OANDA
Pound yawns after Bailey warningsThe British pound is trading quietly on Monday, as the currency markets have started the week with a whimper. BoE Governor Bailey testified before lawmakers earlier today, and his message was a grim one. The BoE has predicted that soaring inflation could top 10%, and Bailey today admitted that "this is a bad situation to be in".  Bailey said that the Ukraine war could cause a further energy shock and that his concern about the surge in food prices was "apocalyptic". Bailey gets full credit for not sugar-coating what is a difficult economic situation, but his candidness will not help support the struggling pound, which hasn't posted a winning week since mid-April. I appreciate Bailey's honesty, but the BoE has run into a credibility problem with its rate policy in recent months, and it's questionable whether his message that dark times lie ahead is the way to restore confidence in the central bank. The economic picture in the US is brighter, but the Fed's aggressive policy will lead to a slowdown in growth. The big question is can Fed Chair Powell guide the economy to a soft landing and avoid a recession. On Sunday, Goldman Sachs lowered its forecast for US growth to 2.4% in 2022 and 1.6% in 2023, down from 2.6% and 2.2%, respectively. Federal Reserve officials last week reiterated their intention to deliver 0.50% rate increases at the June and July meetings, which will help limit US dollar gains. At the same time, any US data that is worse than expected could lead to calls for a hike of 0.75%, which would be bullish for the US dollar. 1.2199 remains under pressure in support. Below, there is support at 1.2056 GBP/USD faces resistance at 1.2272 and 1.2418
by OANDA
USDJPY (Hedge Idea) With all financial markets preparing for the upcoming summer rate hikes, I predict markets will consolidate within a larger than usual range presenting great opportunities for investments. Next Hike: June 15-16, 2022. Hedge Idea (Scale / Intraday): Short: Scale into positions when price breaches 130.000 handle up to the top third end of the range (131.500) Long: Scale into positions when price breaches 128.250 handle & below to the bottom end of the range (127.000) POST FOMC HIKES (Mid-Term Forecast): LONG Target Price: 140.000 Target Date: End of July / Beginning of August
by brandonmattis
Correlation between Fed balance sheet changes and SPXThe United States Federal reserve publishes their balance sheet weekly, every Thursday at 4:30 ET. Basically, when they add to their balance sheet, this is injecting money into the economy. When they remove from their balance sheet, they are removing money from the economy. This chart shows the recent adds and removes on the SP:SPX chart. There appears to be a rough correlation. Also shown are the FOMC meetings. Often, there has been upward pressure following a meeting and downward pressure following the minutes. Here's a link to the Federal Reserve site where the changes are shown in a graph: fred.stlouisfed.org
SP:SPX
by dharmatech
Euro under pressure, falls below 1.04The euro has stabilized on Friday, after a dreadful Thursday in which EUR/USD fell 1.26%. The euro continues to struggle and is trading at lows last seen in January 2017. The Ukraine war has taken a bite out of the eurozone economy and sent the euro tumbling. The latest development weighing on the euro was Russia's announcement of sanctions on some European gas importers, at a time when the EU is trying to garner support for a ban on Russian oil. Germany has said that it could manage without Russian oil, but the main stumbling block to the ban appears to be Hungary, which is very dependent on Russian energy supplies. The euro has broken through major support lines at 1.08 and 1.05, and if it breaches the 1.03 line, we could see move towards parity with the dollar. The wobbly euro hasn't received any support from the ECB, which has been slow to shed its dovish policy. After years of monetary easing, ECB members are becoming more vocal about the need for tighter policy, and ECB President Christine Lagarde said earlier this week that QE would end in the third quarter, and a rate hike would follow "some time" after that. We could see a rate increase as early as July, although it's unclear if the ECB will launch a rate cycle with a hike of 25 or 50 basis points. The US dollar has shined against the majors, buoyed by an aggressive Federal Reserve. The April US inflation report indicated that expectations of an inflation peak were premature, as CPI fell only slightly, from 8.5% to 8.3%. Fed Chair Powell has signalled that the Fed will deliver 0.50% rate increases in June and July, as the Fed is focused on lowering inflation, which has hit a 40-year high. There has been some talk of a 0.75% hike, but it is far more likely that the Fed will stick with 0.50% moves, hoping that they can do the trick and wrestle down inflation. 1.0398 has switched to resistance. It is a weak line and could see further action during the day. Above, there is resistance at 1.0473 There is support at 1.0321 and 1.0246
by OANDA