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Federalreserve

10 yr My W4 on weekly HTF chart is looking likely. If the Fed & ECB are in the debt market trying to stabilize the system via repo swaps then this dump is going to be a normalization process and the markets will chop around in some f**ked up range until W4 is complete around 1.9%-2.2% during this normalization period bullish momo will fizzle out and bears will short all pumps and win , but the greedy bears will get squeezed as all big dumps in markets will get bought up quick and change the direction b4 most traders know what even happened. I suggest only buying your core positions until w4 is finally done projected to finish July-Sept 2022. This would be a good move for the patient investors here to hold and add because once the W4 finishes and markets stabilize (if the fed pivots like I am saying above) W5 will line up on the 10 yr with W5 for stocks & crypto. Conversely If W4 becomes a fear trade (inflation narrative grows momo, war in Ukraine gets worst possibly nuclear war, china invades Taiwan or anything else unforeseeable) then W4 will decimate markets and 3200 SP500 is possible and $12K BTC.
TVC:US10Y
by Big_Mike716
US Inflation is Nearing a Harmonic PeakIf we are to base our views of this chart like we would any other price chart, the harmonics we see forming here would imply that US Inflation is reaching a peak and that we will see Inflation come down signfiicantly over the the coming years. If i were to give a target i'd say we'd wanna see it come down to atlest 3% as a first target but it could go down even more depending on how tight things get. The smaller harmonic is a Bearish Butterfly with a reversal zone between the 1.272 and 1.618 and the bigger one if we get that high is a Bearish Shark. Ideally we'd like to see the Butterfly playout and us not to have to go as high as the Shark.
ECONOMICS:USIRYYLong
by RizeSenpai
BOJ reaffirms policy, yen at 136The Japanese yen is one of those currencies that keeps investors on its toes, and it has certainly lived up to its billing in recent weeks. USD/JPY has shot up 5.79% in the month of June and is back above the 136.00 line. BoJ Core CPI, the central bank's preferred inflation gauge, ticked upwards to 1.5% in May, up from 1.4% prior and matching the forecast. There is no mystery behind the yen's sharp depreciation of some 17% in 2022. The currency has been at the mercy of the US/Japan rate differential, which has continued to widen. The Federal Reserve is in the midst of an aggressive rate-tightening cycle, with the Fed delivering a massive 0.75% increase at its last meeting. The Bank of Japan continues to take an opposite approach, that of an ultra-accommodative policy. The BoJ has maintained this stance at a time when other central banks are tightening, in order to boost the fragile Japanese economy. While other major economies are struggling with surging inflation, Japan's inflation is around 2% - quite low but nonetheless on the rise after some 15 years of deflation. Governor Kuroda reiterated on Wednesday that the BoJ would maintain an accommodative policy, insisting that the increase was mostly a result of higher energy prices. Kuroda has said in the past that the present bout of inflation is temporary and that the BoJ would not change policy until inflation was anchored by higher domestic demand and an acceleration in wage growth. With neither of those criteria likely to occur anytime soon, we can expect the BoJ to continue to tenaciously defend its yield curve control and do little more than jawbone about the exchange rate. This does not bode well for the yen, which could continue its sharp slide and fall below the 140.00 line. USD/JPY faces resistance at 1.3654 and 1.3785 There is support at 1.3540 and 1.3409
by OANDA
My plan for deploying cash over the next six monthsNTSX is an ETF that holds 60% S&P 500, 40% leveraged bonds. This is a highly efficient portfolio composition known as "return stacking" (recently popularized on Twitter by Corey M. Hoffstein). You get the best of several worlds: the lower volatility of the 60-40 portfolio, and the higher returns offered by leverage. Since leverage is used on the relatively safer part of the portfolio (bonds rather than stocks), it doesn't add too much extra risk. Stocks and bonds have sold off together over the last several months, creating a rare situation where there's been a large drawdown in 60-40 portfolios and in NTSX. I think there's an opportunity shaping up, but the hard part is going to be timing it. I've been sitting on a fair bit of cash for several months (you may have noticed I haven't posted much!) and am debating when to deploy it. It's likely still too early, but I think we're nearing good levels at which to deploy anywhere from a quarter to a third of it, and NTSX is a good vehicle for that. I'll likely hang onto the remainder of my cash till October. Macroeconomic Considerations Rates are soaring, and there's no question that will be a bit of a drag on growth. But it's offset by a strengthening dollar. The US is hiking rates faster than other developed markets, which has the dollar index soaring. A strong dollar is generally very good for US stocks. In fact, stocks usually rise as interest rates do, and it's only at the end of a rate hike cycle that we tend to see a recession. There's probably a recession coming in the next couple years, but we're not there yet. Several parts of the yield curve recently inverted, which usually signals a recession in the next 18 months. You might think that means it's time to get defensive, but stocks often go up quite a bit after yield curve inversion and before the recession hits. (Plus, this yield curve signal has been a bit wonky, because parts of the curve are steepening while others flatten. So it's hard to know how to interpret this recent inversion.) For the last several weeks, the Leading Economic Indicators index and the ECRI Weekly Leading Index have been steadily improving, a good sign for near-term growth. Meanwhile, commodities prices have weakened somewhat, with the GSG broad commodities ETF breaking its uptrend: It's possible we could even see some disinflation, which would obviate the need for the Fed to get so aggressive. There are certainly headwinds: China lockdowns, war in Ukraine, and rising US Covid cases. These headwinds need to be taken seriously. But there's also the possibility that any of these situations could suddenly improve at any time, especially if certain policymakers in Asia come to their senses. So I think it's worth having some exposure here. Policy Considerations So with the macro picture looking not too bad, why would I hold onto 2/3 of my cash? Because the Fed is about to start selling assets in May, including treasury and mortgage bonds. And when one of the biggest holders of assets starts selling, you probably don't want to be exposed. Now, the market has been front-running this move for the last several months, and bonds have already have gotten a lot cheaper. It's quite possible that a lot of it is already priced in, and that we could see some counter-trend asset buying that will offset selling by the Fed. The market is also pricing in really aggressive Fed rate hikes, with a 50 basis point hike at the May meeting and 75 basis points in June. That expectation may prove to be too hawkish. The Fed's own dot-plot projections imply a somewhat slower hiking cycle than the market rate does: www.cmegroup.com Any dovish surprise from the Fed might cause bond prices to pop. But I still think you want to play it somewhat conservatively here. The ten-year yield is still much too low for this level of inflation, so on balance, there's probably more downside than upside ahead for bonds. Seasonality Considerations Usually, May inaugurates the bullish season for stocks. But this is a mid-term election year, and mid-term election years are usually bearish from May to October. This may be an especially bearish year, because we're likely to hear a lot of talk tough from candidates about how they're going to stop inflation. The chart shows one possible scenario for how NTSX might move between now and October. I'm envisioning mostly sideways price action through July-August, followed by a summer selloff as we approach the election. If I'm right, then NTSX might even complete a full round-trip to pre-pandemic February 2020 levels by the end of the year. If this scenario does play out, then I'd probably deploy the rest of my cash around October. That might be the bottom, with the rate hike cycle mostly complete. Or it might be the beginning of a recession, as rate hikes cause the economy to blow up. But if it does turn out to be the start of a recession, NTSX won't be too bad a place to hide out. Stocks will go down in a recession, but bonds will likely go up as the Fed lowers rates to stabilize the market. That's part of what makes NTSX such an attractive vehicle.
AMEX:NTSX
by ChristopherCarrollSmith
6
GOLD Daily TA Cautiously BearishGOLD Daily cautiously bearish. Recommended ratio: 10% Gold, 90% Cash. **H&S WATCH. DEATH CROSS WATCH.** *USD is down a bit while energy, commodities, equities, cryptos are up and gold is relatively flat. The relief rally is primarily benefiting risk on markets as money begins to enter it from risk off markets (like gold and bonds); this is still just a technical relief rally that was precipitated by very oversold daily and weekly conditions, the Core PCE report due next Thursday (06/30) should give a clearer picture of what the Fed will do on 07/27/22 and therefore guide the markets in the near term.* Price is currently completing a H&S pattern and trending down at $1827 as it prepares to formally retest the uptrend line from April 2020 (~$1815) as support for the second time since 06/15/22. The 50 MA is currently trending down at $1860 as it quickly approaches the 200 MA at $1845 where it would technically form a Death Cross. Volume remains Moderate (high) and fairly balanced between buyers and sellers (which is indicative of consolidation before a next move). Parabolic SAR flips bullish at the 50 MA ($1860), this margin is neutral at the moment. RSI is currently trending up at 45 after bouncing off of 42 support for the third time in a month, the next resistance is at 67.24. Stochastic remains bearish and is currently beginning to form a trough at 43 as it is still technically testing 53.13 support. MACD is currently crossing over bearish at -8 as it hovers above -10.84 support. ADX is currently trending down at 10 (with little sign of trough formation) as Price is trending down as well, this is neutral at the moment; if ADX was to bottom and begin trending up as Price continued down this would be bearish. If Price is able to bounce here and resist a H&S AND Death Cross then it will likely retest the 200 MA at ~$1840 before potentially retesting $1867 minor resistance. However, if Price continues down here, it will likely formally retest the uptrend line from April 2020 at $1815 as support before potentially falling to retest the largest supply/demand zone on the chart at $1783 support. Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes above) $1844.
G
by dailytaguy
GOLD Daily TA Cautiously BearishGOLD Daily cautiously bearish. Recommended ratio: 30% GOLD, 70% Cash. *H&S Formation Watch. In anticipation of a critical FOMC statement to be released tomorrow at 2pm (deciding on whether or not to raise FFR by 75-100bp to more aggressively combat inflation), the US dollar and treasuries are once again stealing the bullish spotlight as cryptos and equities remain relatively flat and Gold is taking a tumble.* Price is currently retesting the lower trendline of the ascending channel from April 2020 at ~$1810 after testing it back on 05/13/22 and failing to climb even halfway back up the channel; this is bearish. Additionally, Price has completed a second shoulder formation in the H&S and could see a short term bounce here before completing a potential H&S sell off. Volume remains Moderate (high) and is currently on track to favor sellers in a second consecutive session if it can close today's session in the red. Parabolic SAR flips bullish at ~$1880 (which coincides with the 50 MA); this margin is neutral at the moment. RSI is beginning to form a trough at 38 as it fast approaches a test of the uptrend line from April 2013 at ~37; if it breaks below this level, the next support is at 27.07 which hints that Price will have a bit of room to fall in a short amount of time. Stochastic remains bearish and is currently trending down at 33 as it approaches a test of 25.40 support. MACD is currently crossing over bearish at -9.60 which is just above -10.84 resistance (though it crossed above this level it still has not confirmed it as support). ADX is currently trending down slightly at 13 as Price is beginning to develop downward momentum; if ADX can begin trough formation here as Price continues to fall, this would be bearish. If Price is able to defend support at the lower trendline of the ascending channel from April 2020 at ~$1810, it will likely aim to retest the 50 MA at ~$1840 before either a) potentially moving higher or b) completing a H&S formation bull trap before plummeting lower. However, if Price breaks down here then it will likely formally retest $1783 support for the first time since 01/28/22. Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes above) $1840.
G
by dailytaguy
Recession fears rekindle greenback appealEUR/USD 🔽 GBP/USD 🔽 AUD/USD 🔽 USD/CAD 🔼 XAU 🔽 WTI 🔽 Yesterday (23 June), as Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said his team is "acutely aware that high inflation imposes significant hardship". Meanwhile, he also acknowledges "our actions affect communities, families, and businesses across the country" - admitting their monetary decisions could bring the economy to a recession. As a result, investors flocked to the US dollar to get shelter from possible economic turbulences. EUR/USD fell from 1.0575 to 1.0494, then closed at 1.0523. Germany's Manufacturing PMI in June underperformed with a 52.0 reading against a 54.0 forecast. The latest PMI figures for the UK were a mixed bag of results, while the Composite and Services PMI were slightly better than market projections, Manufacturing PMI fell short of expectations at 53.4. GBP/USD recovered from 1.2170 to a closing price of 1.2261. Later tonight, the UK Retail Sales will be available. The AUD/USD pair dropped 28 pips to 0.6899, and USD/CAD closed at 1.2994, while just retreating from 1.3013 today. The results of yesterday's Federal Reserve annual bank stress test show banks continue to have strong capital levels, maintaining their lending capacity. Gold futures briefly went to 1,846.6 a troy ounce then cooled off to close at 1,829.8. Oil prices experienced minor fluctuations, finally closing with a loss at 104.27 a barrel. More information on Mitrade website.
NASDAQ:XAU
by Mitrade_official
MEDIUM TERM OUTLOOK ON THE DOLLARFor the longest time, I have been debating whether or not to begin posting my trading sentiments since the trading community I look after & am a part of is a very private one. That said. we are in unprecedented times, a lot of people do not know what is coming their way. nevermind how to protect themselves/ take advantage of relevant opportunities. So I have decided to help those who are looking to understand financial markets not only from a trading perspective but from an actual investing perspective. So as my first post, let's take a look at a currency that impacts the rest of the global & emerging market currencies & that can help you plan your trading approach over the next 3 - 6 months. But before we do that kindly understand the following: As a former investment bank trading analyst. There is absolutely noway you can incorporate technical analysis without fundamental analysis. When I see retail traders/people just speak about technical analysis and understand nothing about fundamental dynamics & how it affects trading pairs/executions/decisions as a whole, not only do I laugh but it also makes me understand why there is truly only 5-10% of retail traders globally that are consistently profitable. But enough about that, let's get to the charts! DOLLAR INDEX OUTLOOK: Fundamental ( DOWNSIDE ): If another rate hike takes place & MONKEYPOX cases cross the 10K margin in the US &/or employment numbers (NFP) drop. Technical ( DOWNSIDE ): Should the above fundamental case happen, trading opportunities can be taken advantage of through the WXY scenario, where X represents the entry-point. Fundamental ( UPSIDE ): A rate hike & more stimulus money will see the dollar go up. Mid-term elections being favourable would also send the dollar much higher. Technical (UPSIDE ): The above fundamentals taking place would allow scenario ABC to take effect with point B representing the optimal entry-point for relevant trades. Let us see how it plays out, as for exact entry points and iterations to this post as time goes on, that will be given to members only. However, that said, I am willing to do analysis on different pairs/derivatives' on behalf of those who would appreciate an informed opinion on both the technical and fundamental sides. At the end of the day I want to see traders progressing and doing much better but the truth is you need to understand the markets from a technical & fundamental perspective in order to truly be successful as a trader & ultimately become an active investor in financial markets. If all you have been doing at this point in time is trading only incorporating technical analysis then all you are/have been doing is donating money to the market, your broker/s and my former employers in the investment banking/hedge fun world. :) Don't forget to like & comment, I look forward to beginning this new journey with all of you!! :)))
INDEX:DXY
by No-NonsenseFX_
SPX Daily TA Neutral BullishSPX Daily neutral with a bullish bias. Recommended ratio: 51% SPX, 49% Cash. *Fed Chair Jerome Powell testified before the Senate Banking Committee today and to no one's surprise reiterated the Fed's 'reaction function' (comprised of quantitative tightening and a higher federal funds rate (FFR)) working like it's supposed to. He mentioned that the market reacted appropriately by pricing in future rate hikes and repeated that the Fed will continue to move expeditiously (go beyond neutral) to bring Core PCE inflation down from ~5% to their target of 2%; according to Powell beyond neutral is beyond 2.5% FFR, the current FFR target rate is 1.5%-1.75%. With direct endorsement from Powell, the crypto and equity markets are correct in thinking FFR will be at or above 3.5% EOY (75bp July to 2.5%, 50-75bp September to 3%-3.25%, 25-50bp October to 3.25%-3.75%, 25-50bp to 3.5%-4.00%); obviously certain events can expedite or delay this but it seems like markets are beginning to price in the reality of a recession. It is important to remember that by the time the economy recognizes that it is in a recession, financial markets will already be pricing in the road to recovery. In other words, the economy is usually last to feel a recession. That said, it's still to premature to call a bottom (Jim Cramer hasn't told us to sell everything yet) but we could perhaps be in store for a short term rally. PMI report will be released tomorrow at 945am (EST) and Core PCE Inflation report will be released 06/30 at 830am (EST).* Price is currently trending sideways at $3759 after closing above $3706.52 minor support for a second consecutive session. Volume remained Moderate and has favored buyers for three consecutive sessions now. Parabolic SAR flips bullish at $3983, this margin is mildly bullish. RSI is currently trending sideways at 38.06 resistance as it attempts to flip it to support. Stochastic remained bullish for a second consecutive session and is currently testing 18.32 resistance. MACD remains bearish and is currently trending sideways at -105 as it continues to form a trough; it would need to break above -81 in order to cross over bullish. ADX is currently trending sideways at 27 as Price continues to decide whether to bounce here at $3706.52 minor support or go down lower, this is neutral at the moment. If Price is able to continue up from here then it will likely retest the lower trendline of the descending channel from August 2021 at ~$3900 as resistance. However, if Price breaks down below $3706.52 minor support, it will likely retest $3508.14 minor support for the first time since November 2020. Mental Stop Loss: (one close below) $3706.52.
SP:SPX
by dailytaguy
Bear Market is Far from OverCME_MINI:ES1! In the past six months, the S&P 500 has fallen from an all-time high of 4,818.62 to a fresh 52-week low of 3,636.82, down 1,181.8 points, or -24.5%. Following a brutal week, the U.S. stock market rose on Tuesday, as investors weighed the Fed rate hikes amid rising fears of a recession. The Dow rose 2.15%. The S&P popped 2.45%, and the Nasdaq climbed 2.51% at market close. Has the stock market correction ended? Let’s look at a 5-year chart. The previous peak of S&P 500 was 3,383 on February 10, 2020. It hit bottom on March 23 at 2,177, down 35.6%. Since then, the S&P has a great run for nearly two years, up 121%, with very little hiccup along the way. The new high was 40% above the pre-pandemic high. After recent steep fall, the S&P is still 400 points above the pre-COVID peak, which, in my view, is our first support line. If recession fear materializes into a real one, the post-COVID dip will become the second support. I believe that the bear market is far from over. My reasoning bogs down into two essential questions: 1. Will Government policies be effective in controlling the runaway inflation? 2. Will U.S. economic growth be sustainable at current high price level? On March 16, the Fed raised interest rates by 25 basis points (bps). A second hike followed on May 4, for 50 bps. On June 15, a big 75-bps move upped the Fed Fund Rate to 1.50%-1.75%. Meanwhile, U.S. inflation continues to rise. In May, the official Consumer Price Index rose 8.6% year-over-year. The core CPI (all items less food and energy) was also at a record high of 6.0%. While aggressive Fed tightening could reduce the excess money supply, it could not affect the record gas price, nor the supply chain bottleneck from China. President Biden will try to convince the Saudis to increase oil production during his visit. However, we need to understand it is the best interest of OPEC to maximize oil revenue. High oil price is good for them as long as it does not cause demand to decline. Besides, if Biden can’t control his own bike, do you really expect him to get OPEC to fall in line behind us? Removing the Trump era tariff could bring some relief to U.S. consumers. However, the extent of imported goods covered by tariff reductions remains unclear. From policy discussion to actual implementation, it would take months before we see price drops on store shelves. In a nutshell, my answer is NO for the first question. As to the second question, even if the Fed succeeds in bringing down the inflation, will the U.S economy sustain its growth momentum? Take the $5 gas price for instance. For an average family with two cars, the consumption of 100 gallons a month is budgeted at $500, and it is $200 more than when gas was $3/gallon. Record gas price has already resulted in less driving and reduced trips to grocery stores and supermarkets. A major impact of Fed rate hikes is higher mortgage payments for millions of homeowners. For a family with a $400,000 house and $300,000 mortgage, a 6.5%, 30-year-fixed loan will require $1,900 interest payment per month. This is $380 more than when the mortgage rate was 4.5%. High energy and mortgage costs trickle down to every corner of American life. Even if inflation is tamed, at current price level, everything is too costly for the economy to function properly. We need to have deflation, starting with energy and housing, to avoid a recession. With headwinds to the economy and massive overhang over the stock market, I’m not optimistic for the near-term U.S. economic outlook. A short position in CME E-Mini S&P 500 futures is a way to express this bearish view. The December (ESZ2) contract may be a good one, considering both liquidity factor and time to allow major market-moving events to play out. At 3,788.00, each contract has a notional value of $189,400 ($50 times index value). CME requires an initial margin of $10,500. Futures contract is marked to market daily. For a short position, a decline of 1 index point will result in $50 gain in your account balance because of the $50 multiplier. Likewise, an increase of 1 index point means a $50 reduction in your account. If you don’t want to deal with the daily profit and loss accounting, consider a Long Put Option on the same E-Mini S&P futures contract. For example, the out-of-the-money 3685-strike (100 points below market) is currently quoted at $9.00. To buy an option requires $450, again because of the contract multiplier of 50. When is the good time to place the order? The next market rebound. Put premium generally gets cheaper following a price rise in the underlying futures. Happy Trading. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by JimHuangChicago
7
BTC: Don't DCA YetMacro conditions couldn’t be any worse. Starting this month, the Fed unleashed its quantitative tightening (QT) plans, trimming the $9trillion balance sheet at an unprecedented scale (current run-off cap: $47.5bn/month initial; $95bn/month 3 month later; 2017 run-off: max $50bn/month). The last two quantitative tightening led to a sharp rise in yields in 2013 and a repo crisis in 2019 respectively. Unfortunately, this time around, the Fed has to deal with a much larger balance sheet and all-time high inflation rate since 1982. Without the ability to print real world supply of goods and services (factories, natural resources), the Fed has lever on the demand side, but lowering demand means hikes in unemployment (which the Fed is already targeting). With a 7% gap between short-term rate and inflation rate, can the Fed “just rise unemployment a little bit” without causing a recession? Extremely hard unless real world supply of goods and services picks up. For us crypto traders and investors, the question is - isn’t bitcoin an inflation hedge, and if global market enters a recession, wouldn’t bitcoin be the risk-off asset of choice? My take on this is not in this cycle. Bitcoin has not experienced a proper traditional finance bear market yet and has performed poorly during past tapering and quantitative tightening environments. Different phases of quantitative easing, tapering, and quantitative tightening are marked on the chart above. After three rounds of quantitative easing from 2010, the start of tapering in 2014 marked the beginning of bitcoin’s 2-year bear market. In 2017, quantitative tightening started in October, and the 2018 crypto crash soon followed. In other words, bitcoin’s inflation hedge narrative hasn’t been officially tested or widely accepted. With arbitrage opportunities, scams, hack risks, and run-on-bank fear, the crypto market is no doubt in its early stage. While superior security and scarcity give bitcoin the potential to replace gold in a new era of currency, early-stage demand side volatility makes bitcoin subject to wild price swings. The current reality is we see rising correlation between bitcoin and the equity market year after year, and the volatility is further heightened by the derivative market. In the current cycle, bitcoin’s inflation hedge value is overpowered by its volatility, and it is hard for bitcoin to rally under gloomy global macro conditions before the market matures and stabilizes. Do you agree? What’s your take on crypto under the current global macro? Support and comment below!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Phi-Deltalytics
18
US30 Intra-Week Analysis June 21stLast week us30 created another new low coming down to retest 29600 which are pre-pandemic highs and key level for price. We ended the week within the 30200-28800 range and demand zone failing to breakout in either direction. This week we've already began breaking out above 30200 and coming up to test 30400 key level. Our overall bias is still bearish on us30 especially with the potential for a 75 BPS rate hike in July. Until those economic factors are priced in we can expect to see a push to 31k if we break above 30500 or even continued bearish momentum to 32600 if we break above 31k.
U
by Itskaleel
ETHUSD Daily TA Neutral BearishETH Daily neutral with a bearish bias. Recommended ratio: 35% ETH, 65% Cash. *Cryptos are enjoying a technical relief rally that is still ongoing even though Binance didn't buy $2b of Bitcoin this weekend, the bulls are saying bottom but I think it's a bit premature with JPow due to testify before Congress on Wednesday (06/22) and PMI due on Thursday (06/23).* Price is currently defending $1k and beginning to form a U-shaped bottom in attempt to reclaim support of the descending channel from October 2021 at ~$1300; because Price only briefly touched $889 and never formally tested $775 support, it may see a corrective bounce here before heading lower. Additionally, Price hasn't tested the uptrend line from February 2017 (currently at ~$360) since July 2020. Volume is Moderate and on track to favor sellers if it can close today's session in the red (making the spread fairly balanced over the past week, indicative of consolidation). Parabolic SAR flips bullish at $1231. RSI is currently trending sideways at 28 as it attempts to reclaim support of the uptrend line from 01/22/22 at 26.50. Stochastic remains bullish for a second consecutive session and is currently trending up at 30 as it is still technically testing 22.98 resistance. MACD is currently forming a trough and trending up slightly at -252 as it aims to break above -227 to cross over bullish; the next resistance is at -197.34. ADX is currently trending up slightly at 52 and is beginning to form a soft peak as Price is bouncing here; this is neutral at the moment but would be bullish if ADX began to trend down as Price continued up. If Price is able to continue up then it will likely test the lower trendline of the descending channel at ~$1300 as resistance. However, if Price breaks down here, it will likely test $775.83 support for the first time since breaking above it in January 2021. Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes above) $1300.
COINBASE:ETHUSD
by dailytaguy
Hedge for High Interest RatesHere is great high interest rate hedge. While I wanted to use USINTR to compare, it didn't look obvious for easy analysis, so I used USIRYY instead since both are greatly correlated. The Fed keeps talking like a dove but acting like a hawk: like promising soft landings from transitory inflation, yet suddenly choosing rare 75 bps increase, even though they previously implied 50 bps would be the most. So, I expect next few rate raisings will be at least that much, possibly a full point even during this summer. That would be great for this ETF going up, which is currently on sale, thanks to more direct & intense QT from the Federal Reserve.
AMEX:PFIXLong
by UnknownUnicorn39070801
Btc potential moveif btc close below 19k this weekend, i can sey the next week will be historical. there are to supports waiting for the btc fist one is between 18k-16900 , and the second is between 13900 and 11800. Not forgetting what is going on in the global economy, the Federal Reserve continues to raise interest rates, which will cause investors to sell their positions in riskier assets ( crypto , stocks) and lead to a significant drop in these markets. These investors will prefer to put their money into bonds that the federal government will print at higher yields. that is my personal opinion.
Short
by moadsr01
2022 - Not the Recession We Want, but the Recession We NeedIn response to the Federal Reserve increasing interest rates yet again, the markets - both in stocks and crypto (and housing soon to come) - have been dropping pretty hard lately. For crypto investors out there: this is the sound of mainstream money from the general public leaving the space - they came for the party, then left after the party was over. The craze that we saw in 20’-21’ was really the result of NFT projects targeting people - largely cooped up indoors due to the pandemic - with a hype-based marketing strategy that seemingly resonated very strongly. Out of all the NFT projects that could have reached #1, it was the Bored Apes Yacht Club: it doesn’t take an art expert (although I do like to fancy myself as one at times) to see what BAYC’s success “means” - it’s obviously targeted at people who’s primary ethos is boredom…and exclusivity. In a way, BAYC is the perfect sign of the times - people bored of the lockdown, the rise of digital marketing and remote work, our reliance on artificial scarcity to determine “value”, and Web2 marketing/hype and investing practices all rolled into one. There’s a reason why even the Ethereum team (most visible Vitalik) renounced BAYC as something that ETH “wasn’t intended” to do. Adjective-Animal JPGs basically missed the point of why Web3 was created from the very beginning. Now that the Feds are tightening up their money supply (finally, after having printed endless amounts of it during the last few years) the “casino” market is about to come to an end. But just because the market is in a downturn doesn’t automatically mean that everything will be bad…there are lots of opportunities still there; they just look different from what we’re used to seeing up until now. For some of us out there, we’ve been waiting for this moment for a very long time. If you might have been thinking about changing or trying new things out in your life, now is probably the best time to do it because in a few months the world as we know it will probably get flipped on its head and most things will become unrecognizable anyway. During recessions people’s priorities tend to shift away from speculative assets and into savings; short-term investments into long-term; people shopping for interest rates on savings rather than loan accounts; and so on. Those who adapt will do well - but it will require a shift in mindset that may feel strange and unfamiliar. People say that “everyone” suffers during a recession but I tend to disagree - in any given market there are always winners and losers; money is game of how the idea of “value” compares itself to the price of goods around us. It is always relative to each other, in other words - and there are always ways to get ahead if you’re willing to look at the details close enough. - The Market Itself is a Bubble One thing to keep in mind that 80%+ of people don't own any stocks/crypto, so all the panic, hype, and emotional reactions you see in the media/social media is already a bubble of its own. Most people only see the prices of the things that they interact with every day - thing most people are seeing right now is that they see that inflation is cutting into their ability to survive day to day - and that something needs to be done. Until crypto products address these sorts of “bigger issues” of the public directly, it will always follow the general markets rather than setting the tone. The reality is that most people in living in United States were already used to massive inflation - the costs of living was already on the rise since 12’ onward (especially in housing, education, and healthcare - typically the 3 biggest expenses for the average person out there) and people were already getting squeezed out every year anyway. In the upcoming months there will be a lot of people with lots of money complaining about how “hard” things are for them, but I don’t expect there will be any sympathy for them - in fact, they will probably be the target for the next ridicule cycle if anything, really. What that means is that the economy was already hell for most people during the "good times" - inflation was already well out of control but we simply failed to acknowledge it. On a personal level, I lost more friends (especially artists) than I care to talk about: many were forced to move away from the places they loved because the costs of simply existing in certain areas became untenable. A lot of people I knew gave up on having kids, gave up on their dreams, went back living with their parents - worse case, some of them literally ended up on the streets simply because they were unable to pay their rent. People who have known me long enough know that prior to getting into crypto I was heavily involved with housing politics through the YIMBY movement - though this downturn is hurting my portfolio too, it's hard for me to think that a market crash would be a bad thing long-term, because not only would it would lessen the pearl-clutching incentives/behaviors of NIMBYs, it should also bring down costs of everything as a whole. And that is good for everybody, not just the few who happen to be lucky enough to get their hands on a certain type of ERCs. So while it may be unpleasant to see the numbers in your accounts go down, this is the correction that many have been waiting for - the correction that we need. Once the housing market stops going up, there’s less reason (and ability) for NIMBYs to defend their imaginary gains against the tides of supply and demand - and in the long run, the market should equalize itself to where it should be. What Web3 needs more of is people with a mindset of abundance rather than of scarcity - and this will become more important as the crypto ecosystem starts to mature. Web3 is not only a movement of its own, but it’s also a repudiation of the bad habits of the Wall Street/Web2 model - which has, over time, become a ponzi scheme of its own. Low interest loans allowed startups, politicians, and scammers to “fundraise” their way out of trouble: No money to pay for things we need? No problem - just print more! Company not profitable? No problem - just raise your Series Z to keep it going just a little bit longer! Ponzi schemes do actually “work” on some level, after all - as long as the market keeps on going up.As we’ve seen with what happened with LUNA/3AC - which was entirely backed on the fantasy of Bitcoin going up forever and forever - there’s going to be a backlash against the stock market too, so that’s something to keep an eye out for. How did Bernie Madoff get away with what he did for over 20 years? The market was always going up. Now that the tide is pulling, we’ll get to see who was swimming naked underneath this whole time. - It’s Time for the King (Bitcoin) to Serve its People Bitcoin is obviously the first of its kind and currently the market leader in the crypto space as we speak - but for how long? While Ethereum is moving towards proof-of-stake as its primary economic engine (taking most of its tokens along with it), Bitcoin leaned hard into the proof-of-work + scarcity model in the last few years and never looked back. Given that the store-of-value idea is not unique to any coin - and that the only “value” Bitcoin currently provides is potential speculative gains (which are on its way out as staking rewards start to look more appealing during a recession) and a strange retro-nostalgia aesthetic for the pre-08’ eras (which will gradually fade over time), it’s hard to see it surviving for the long term. More broadly speaking, “it was there first” is exactly the type of NIMBY argument that the market will “correct” in the upcoming recession, taking down a multitude of asset classes that have been relying on that mentality up until this point. Ethereum is attempting to escape that fate through their “merge” (we’ll see if they’re successful in doing that this summer), but Bitcoin has basically signed the pact to go down with the ship. In a few months, it could potentially be the only proof-of-work system left on the charts, quite literally. I’ve always found it odd that a lot of Bitcoin fans aren’t too shy about calling their coin of choice “King” - which is actually a fairly new phenomenon that came during the 16’-18’ run, not before. (The dev community was much purer back then.) This phrase clashes directly with their supposed support for decentralization and democratization of money - the cognitive dissonance there is massive, to say the least. (Since there is no on-chain governance in BTC systems a small group of miners usually end up controlling everything on the protocol level behind closed doors, btw.) There’s something very disturbing about the glint you see in their eyes when they claim that Bitcoin holders (not anyone else, obviously) will become the most “powerful” people in the world in a few years - I don’t think anyone outside of that bubble really believes that - especially now. This is the year 2022 and we don’t really have the time to idolize or fantasize the absolute powers of monarchy, even in imaginary forms. Web3 will rely on the transparency of ledgers to establish partnerships of mutual benefit, enforced by precision and reliability of smart contracts - but this requires us to get better at collaboration, rather than moving unilaterally and monopolistically, as Web2 has typically done. As is the case with modern monarchies - the royalty can either choose to step down or be taken down forcibly - one or the other will happen, either way. BTC has largely been left out of the development talks of Web3 systems as a whole, since they refused to fork out their systems to make compatibility improvements - it will eventually get left behind as the world continues to move without them. Luckily this will happen through the simple process of numbers going up and down - rather than having to deal with the fallout of it in the real-world itself. - What’s Coming Next for Web3? The typical pattern that the economy goes through during periods of recession is that they switch from a speculative to a savings mindset - when both the banks and the government spends all their money and have literally nothing left, what do they do? Raise interest rates to incentivize people to put money back in. As far as anyone can tell, the fundamentals of this relationship hasn’t changed and is not likely to have done so during this cycle either. In crypto this means that there will be less demand for NFT lotteries and higher demand for coins that offer staking rewards as a benefit - undoubtedly there will be more and more people searching for the best rates out there as the Fed starts to raise its rates even further in order to keep inflation under control. Interest rates has been at 0% for so long that most people probably forgot that it was a thing - staking was a hard sell even during last year’s run since news of its developments were largely out-blasted by the NFT mania as a whole. But as we start transitioning into a different phase of the economy, people’s priorities are likely to shift. Some coins that are well positioned to take advantage of this shift are Tezos, Algorand, Cardano, NANO, and many of the other coins that have been proof-of-stake from the very beginning. Ethereum and Dogecoin both have plans on switching over to proof-of-stake in the future (ETH supposedly in August, Dogecoin’s date is unknown), but the elephant in the room that nobody is talking about right now is the fact that Bitcoin doesn’t have the means (nor the plans to) transition into anything that is likely to be relevant in the near future. Time will tell, but we’ll see what happens over the course of the next few months, next few years, since what happens is likely to be a crucial turning point for the industry as a whole. Now that mainstream money has left the space, both whales and HODLers are waiting for the right time to reorganize their portfolios and get back in. With fiat money out of the picture, we’re likely to see more independent movement between coins and clear winners and losers emerge within the ecosystem rather than always moving in parallel as it has up until now. What comes out in the aftermath of all of this will be a very different crypto landscape - possibly with the “flippening” happening during the midst of it as well. As one last reminder, your portfolio going down is not necessarily a bad thing, if the goods that you pay for day-to-day gets, on average, cheaper. So I hope people don’t lose sight of the bigger picture and sees the opportunities and benefits that can come out of this transition as a whole. Money is about to get smarter: something that people have been demanding for a very long time. Well, if that’s what you’re looking for it’s coming right for us - hope people can recognize it when it’s here.
GEMINI:XTZUSDLong
by RyanTanaka
AUDUSD:MA to cap gains?!!AUDUSD Intraday - We look to Sell at 0.7075 (stop at 0.7135) We are trading at overbought extremes. The 200 day moving average should provide resistance at 0.7074. This is negative for sentiment and the downtrend has potential to return. We look to sell rallies. Our profit targets will be 0.6900 and 0.6780 Resistance: 0.7130 / 0.7315 / 0.7500 Support: 0.6970 / 0.6780 / 0.6540 Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Signal Centre’) . Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Signal Centre
Short
by VantageMarkets
Treasury yields and greenback retreat after Fed's 75 bps hikeEUR/USD 🔼 GBP/USD 🔼 AUD/USD 🔼 USD/CAD 🔽 XAU 🔼 WTI 🔽 The Federal Reserve has increased interest rates by 75 basis points, the highest since November 1994. As a result, both Treasury yields and the greenback have retreated, with the United States 10-Year Bond Yield closing at 3.395%, and followed by a low of 3.29%. Meanwhile, US retail sales underperformed with a 0.3% decrease against a 0.2% growth forecast, hinting at a recession that may come after the mega rate hike. EUR/USD rose to 1.0443, then spiked from 1.0375 to 1.0475 with minor oscillation, investors expect tomorrow's (17 June) Eurozone CPI reading to maintain at 8.1%. GBP/USD has a closing price of 1.2178, currently trading at 1.2175 level. Also on tomorrow, the latest Bank of England Interest Rate had a prediction of bumping 25 basis points to 1.25%. News on Australian Employment Change in May probably brought optimism among investors, since 60,600 people are joining the workforce, against the original forecast of 25,000. The Aussie greenback pair climbed to 0.7002 and just reached 0.7022. USD/CAD took a dive, went below 1.2900 and closed at 1.289. A weakened dollar drove up gold futures, first closed at 1,819.6, then briefly went above 1,843, now trading flat at 1,834. Amongst fears of recession. US Crude Oil Inventories managed to restock 1.956 million barrels of crude oil, when most believed it would decline by 1.314 million barrels. Oil prices briefly returned to 115 a barrel, but soon recovered to 116.44. More information on Mitrade website.
NASDAQ:XAU
by Mitrade_official
Pound jumps ahead of Fed, BOE meetingsThe British pound is in positive territory on Wednesday. This follows an abysmal 5-day slide which saw the pound fall as much as 600 points. In the North American session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2060, up 0.53% on the day. All eyes are on the Federal Reserve, with the FOMC rate decision later today. The Fed is clearly under pressure as inflation surges with no peak in sight - CPI accelerated to 8.6% in April, up from 8.3% in March. This was the highest inflation rate since 1981. The Fed's aggressive stance may shift into overdrive, with a 75-bp hike priced in by the markets at almost 100%. Just a few days ago, the most likely scenario was a 50-bps increase, but hawkish winds are blowing, and a 75-bp move will likely elicit a sharp response from the financial markets. Investors will also be closely monitoring the rate statement and Fed Chair Powell's press conference. I would not be surprised to see the US dollar cash in with strong gains following today's meeting. The Fed finds itself in a tough spot as it struggles to combat inflationary pressures, which are now more than four times higher than the Fed's inflation target of 2 per cent. The price for the Fed's aggressive rate-hike cycle could well be a recession, but Fed policy makers clearly prefer a (hopefully) short recession rather than inflation expectations becoming unanchored. The big question is will the Fed manage to guide the US economy to a soft landing as it continues to aggressively raise rates. After the Fed is done, attention will shift to the Bank of England, which holds its policy meeting on Thursday. The likely scenario is that the cautious BoE will raise rates by a modest 25 bps, but we could see a larger hike if the Fed is overly hawkish at its meeting. With unemployment in the UK at a low level of 3.7%, the BoE has room to be more aggressive with its monetary policy. As for the British pound, a 0.25% hike won't be of much help. If the BoE surprises with a larger rate increase, the pound would likely respond with gains. GBP/USD faces resistance at 1.2108 and 1.2215 There is support at 1.1916. This is followed by 1.1772, a major support level.
by OANDA
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