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BTC negating breakout could mean impending correctionINVESTMENT CONTEXT The epicenter of the Ukraine conflict is now Severodonetsk, where 70% of the strategically important eastern city had been captured by Russia, until a Ukrainian counterattack claimed it back The World Health Organisation (WHO) reported that there have been 780 confirmed monkeypox cases over the past three weeks in countries where the disease is not endemic The WTO dubbed the global risk for monkeypox as "moderate" U.K. sales in May fell 1.1% on a yearly basis, as consumers cut down on big-ticket items like furniture and electronics A global rush to secure lithium, nickel, cobalt and other key battery minerals from a handful of nations is sending commodity and battery prices to all-time highs Goldman Sachs senior chairman Lloyd Blankfein urged investors to "dial back" on negativity, seeing a rather possible "soft landing" for the economy PROFZERO'S TAKE ECB policy makers are clashing about when to stop reinvesting into the continent's government bonds, with some positing to act as early as this week. ProfZero keeps ECB - and now also Bank of England, BoE - policy making high on its radar, as but parts of the impending quantitative tightening have been priced by market In a rather choppy session, equities gave up much of the earlier gains on June 6 as bear momentum persisted. ProfZero concurs with The Economist on a recession in the making for 2023 or even 2024, as higher interest rates trickle down into costlier mortgages and liquidity dry-up for "zombie" corporates (i.e. firms that can't generate sufficient cash flow to make up for interest payments). Yet near-term breathers like China's reopening and the resilience of U.S. economy point to a rather mild crash. Will that be enough to absorb also the surge in commodity prices? Much of the answer lies in China, where Goldman Sachs just boosted forecasts May 20, June 1 and June 6: ProfZero called all BTC sell-offs indicating insufficient buy-side pressure. Now that the triangle trade is restored, a potential correction is brewing - a new call on leg (C) of short-term Elliott wave PROFONE'S TAKE ProfOne’s sees it about time to dig into container shipments, given that 90% of the world's goods are seaborne. Port bottlenecks, shortage of empty containers and land transport delays, worsened by Ukraine-Russia war and Chinese lockdowns, caused the well-known supply chains disruptions of 2021. Freight rates are in average five time higher now compared to pre-pandemic levels. While global carriers are enjoying the sixth straight quarter of record-high profits, prices do not see signs of abating. ProfOne agrees that China reopening and decline of consumer demand like in the U.K. could ease the situation, but there is no optimism about steep freight rates reduction just ahead of peak delivery season and ports congestion still at historically high levels PROFTHREE'S TAKE Building on China's Premier Li Keqiang warning in May that the economy is now facing bigger difficulties than those in 2020, ProfThree points out a contraction of China’s services activity for the third month in a row. In May, the Caixin gauge rose to 41.1 points after plunging to 36.2 in April, yet remained well below the 50.0 points level which separates growth from contraction. Referring to ProfZero’s recent reflection on the deflationary nature of services consumption, ProfThree is worried about the growing unemployment the sector is facing due to COVID-induced restrictions, and its effect on the economy. Profs are awaiting Chinese data on inflation due June 10, both PPI and CPI (Producers’ and Consumers’ Price Index, respectively). The print is considered one of the key factors in the People's Bank of China's decision on interest rates expected by the third week of June
CME:BTC1!
by ProfZero
Trading Index Futures?Entry: 4165, Stop loss: 4185, Take Profit: 4105 ( conservative ) 4080 ( radical ) If you're trading index futures I would be cautious of where to put your monies. I'm bearish for many reasons: - Increasing inflation, continued economic growth while feds are trying to put the flames out of the overheated economy, increasing interest rates to lower consumer and producer spending (businesses will eventually have lower earnings growth -- affecting investors sentiment in regards to EPS and dividends), and many many more.
BLACKBULL:SPX500Short
by charrison4300
$SPY's Approach to the DownsideWe are in a pennant right and the bottom of the pennant is part of the wedge from my previous analysis. As you see in the pennant, it'll likely test the sides and eventually break out. From here we have a couple scenarios: (1) we either break above the top line of the pennant and visit the downside from there or (2) it could go straight down. The scenario where it does break above the pennant would allow $SPY to test the supply & demand zone and consolidate within as I noted in my previous analysis. That consolidation essentially means we see SPY chop, before breaking down. That break into the purple supply & demand zone could have us likely topping out at 420-422 (see gold arrows). Remember, anything can happen here and as I'm showing you the graph on the 15m chart, but nevertheless, I believe we will sell off with respect to this zone after consolidation. Keep in mind, we also have strong put flow coming in with SPY for next month which is pretty bearish on the market too. The more we consolidate and the more we can't get above the zone just strengthens the bearish thesis that we'll be breaking downwards. On a side note, we have economic data this week like manufacturing numbers, jobless claims, services PMI, and Fed speeches which continues to create volatility in the price action.
AMEX:SPYShort
by theapearmy
2
Dollar pushes wobbly yen to 130The Japanese yen continues to lose ground, as USD/JPY has punched above the symbolic 130 line. In the North American session, USD/JPY is trading at 130.01 up 1.02% on the day. The US dollar is having its way with the yen this week as USD/JPY has surged 2.23%. The driver behind the yen's plunge is an upswing in US Treasury yields. The 10-year yield rose from 2.84% to 2.93% today, and as we have often seen, the yen finds itself at the mercy of the US/Japan rate differential and is sharply lower today. Most of the major central banks have embarked on rate-hike cycles in order to contain spiralling inflation, with the noticeable exception of the Bank of Japan. The BoJ has continued its ultra-accommodative policy, which it insists is needed to boost the fragile economy. BoJ Governor Kuroda has defended keeping interest rates low, saying that wages and service price inflation have remained modest. The BoJ continues to view cost-push inflation as transient and is not all that concerned with inflationary pressures, which are much lower than we are seeing in the other major economies. In the US, the Fed commenced quantitative tightening this week and the Fed continues to send out hawkish messages. Fed Governor Christopher Waller fired the latest hawkish salvo from the US central bank, saying he supported more rate hikes, even above the "neutral level", which is not supportive or restrictive for growth. The Fed estimates the neutral level to be around 2.5%, which leaves plenty of room for further hikes until the neutral level is approached. Fed Chair Powell has signalled that the Fed will deliver 50-bps hikes in June and July, followed by a pause in September. USD/JPY has broken past resistance at 1.2890 and 1.2973. The next resistance line is at 131.24 There is support at 128.01
by OANDA
Gold Is Staggering Near Key SupportGold surged earlier in the year as inflation raged and geopolitical worries grew. However bearish things seem to be happening since then. The first pattern on today’s chart is the March 8 high at $2,070. It was slightly below the August 2020 high of $2,075.28, resulting in a double-top pattern. The long period of time between the two peaks could mean that significant resistance is now in place. Second, consider how this year’s peak came shortly after gold escaped a triangle in late February . XAUUSD’s inability to follow through on that breakout suggests limited buying interest in the yellow metal. Third is the lower high in mid-April. So you have: a breakout one month, a rejection the subsequent month and a lower high the following month. If that wasn’t enough to dispirit the bulls, next came a sharp selloff that brought prices back to the 200-day simple moving average (SMA). The slide also landed gold near $1,800, an old high from 2011 and 2012. A slide back under this level could potentially trigger further selling -- especially if the 8-day exponential moving average (EMA) remains below the 21-day EMA. These patterns could be relevant with non-farm payrolls due on Friday and the next Federal Reserve meeting on June 15. TradeStation has, for decades, advanced the trading industry, providing access to stocks, options, futures and cryptocurrencies. See our Overview for more. Important Information TradeStation Securities, Inc., TradeStation Crypto, Inc., and TradeStation Technologies, Inc. are each wholly owned subsidiaries of TradeStation Group, Inc., all operating, and providing products and services, under the TradeStation brand and trademark. You Can Trade, Inc. is also a wholly owned subsidiary of TradeStation Group, Inc., operating under its own brand and trademarks. TradeStation Crypto, Inc. offers to self-directed investors and traders cryptocurrency brokerage services. It is neither licensed with the SEC or the CFTC nor is it a Member of NFA. When applying for, or purchasing, accounts, subscriptions, products, and services, it is important that you know which company you will be dealing with. Please click here for further important information explaining what this means. This content is for informational and educational purposes only. This is not a recommendation regarding any investment or investment strategy. Any opinions expressed herein are those of the author and do not represent the views or opinions of TradeStation or any of its affiliates. Investing involves risks. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is no guarantee of future performance or success. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss equal to or greater than your entire investment regardless of which asset class you trade (equities, options, futures, or digital assets); therefore, you should not invest or risk money that you cannot afford to lose. Before trading any asset class, first read the relevant risk disclosure statements on the Important Documents page, found here: www.tradestation.com .
OANDA:XAUUSD
by TradeStation
EURUSD : Fed interest, oversold, historic, simple 4.5Aggressive interest rate hikes HINTS from FED is causing USD to skyrocket. In contrast, ECB is hinting on stimulus end and interest hikes only after Q3 bond purchasing ends. But let's be practical. *RSI 14 on daily is extremely low *Connecting lows of drop shows support around 1.105 *Horizontal support stretching all the way back to 2003 shows strong support between 1.035 to 1.05, with multiple tests around 2015, 2016, 2020 most recently. Today's FED interest rate decision may cause volatility to retest ~1.08 as the EUR is extremely oversold. Consider the hikes from FED are already implemented in the price of the very high USD. On the other end we have really strong support around 1.035 which may be tested. Trade safe at time of volatility and always consider the worst case scenario. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Thank you so much for reading, it's highly appreciated. If you found my idea useful, please like and follow! It would mean the world to me. Always seek independent advise, research when trading and act with caution. -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Long
by Exactus
3
UK inflation soars to 9 per centThe British pound has taken a tumble after April CPI jumped to 9.0% YoY, up sharply from 7.0% in March. GBP/USD has fallen 100 points today and is trading at 1.2390 in North American trade. UK inflation continues to run at a 40- year high, and the cost of living crisis is undoubtedly keeping Finance Minister Sunak and BoE Governor Bailey awake at night. Core CPI didn't provide any relief, as it rose to 6.2%, up from 5.7% prior. This indicates that inflationary pressures are broad-based and aren't about to ease anytime soon. The only positive in the CPI release was that it was a bit lower than the forecast of 9.1%, but I'm sure few in the City of London are taking any solace from that tidbit. The BoE has essentially raised the white flag on the inflation front, saying that many of the factors at play, such as the Ukraine war and soaring energy costs are beyond the Bank's control. The BoE has warned that things could get worse, projecting that inflation will top 10% later this year and warning of a likely recession. Bailey & Co. are doing their best to catch up with the inflation curve as they aggressively hike rates while trying not to choke off economic growth. With the spectre of 10% inflation looming, confidence in the BoE may be ebbing. Like the Fed, the BoE has come under heavy criticism for not reacting to spiralling inflation quickly enough, and the 25-bps incremental hikes may not prove to be sufficient. The Fed has gone full throttle with a 50-bps hike and more to follow, and pressure is mounting on the BoE to follow suit. The US is also facing spiralling inflation, and Fed Chair Powell has signalled that the Fed will deliver 0.50% hikes in June and July. Former Fed Chair Bernard Bernanke weighed in on Fed policy, saying that it was a mistake for the Fed not to react earlier to rising inflation. Bernanke also warned that the US economy could face stagflation in the next year or two. GBP/USD has broken below support at 1.2436. Below, 1.2374 is under pressure There is resistance at 1.2557 and 1.2619
by OANDA
Pound yawns after Bailey warningsThe British pound is trading quietly on Monday, as the currency markets have started the week with a whimper. BoE Governor Bailey testified before lawmakers earlier today, and his message was a grim one. The BoE has predicted that soaring inflation could top 10%, and Bailey today admitted that "this is a bad situation to be in".  Bailey said that the Ukraine war could cause a further energy shock and that his concern about the surge in food prices was "apocalyptic". Bailey gets full credit for not sugar-coating what is a difficult economic situation, but his candidness will not help support the struggling pound, which hasn't posted a winning week since mid-April. I appreciate Bailey's honesty, but the BoE has run into a credibility problem with its rate policy in recent months, and it's questionable whether his message that dark times lie ahead is the way to restore confidence in the central bank. The economic picture in the US is brighter, but the Fed's aggressive policy will lead to a slowdown in growth. The big question is can Fed Chair Powell guide the economy to a soft landing and avoid a recession. On Sunday, Goldman Sachs lowered its forecast for US growth to 2.4% in 2022 and 1.6% in 2023, down from 2.6% and 2.2%, respectively. Federal Reserve officials last week reiterated their intention to deliver 0.50% rate increases at the June and July meetings, which will help limit US dollar gains. At the same time, any US data that is worse than expected could lead to calls for a hike of 0.75%, which would be bullish for the US dollar. 1.2199 remains under pressure in support. Below, there is support at 1.2056 GBP/USD faces resistance at 1.2272 and 1.2418
by OANDA
USDJPY (Hedge Idea) With all financial markets preparing for the upcoming summer rate hikes, I predict markets will consolidate within a larger than usual range presenting great opportunities for investments. Next Hike: June 15-16, 2022. Hedge Idea (Scale / Intraday): Short: Scale into positions when price breaches 130.000 handle up to the top third end of the range (131.500) Long: Scale into positions when price breaches 128.250 handle & below to the bottom end of the range (127.000) POST FOMC HIKES (Mid-Term Forecast): LONG Target Price: 140.000 Target Date: End of July / Beginning of August
by brandonmattis
Correlation between Fed balance sheet changes and SPXThe United States Federal reserve publishes their balance sheet weekly, every Thursday at 4:30 ET. Basically, when they add to their balance sheet, this is injecting money into the economy. When they remove from their balance sheet, they are removing money from the economy. This chart shows the recent adds and removes on the SP:SPX chart. There appears to be a rough correlation. Also shown are the FOMC meetings. Often, there has been upward pressure following a meeting and downward pressure following the minutes. Here's a link to the Federal Reserve site where the changes are shown in a graph: fred.stlouisfed.org
SP:SPX
by dharmatech
Euro under pressure, falls below 1.04The euro has stabilized on Friday, after a dreadful Thursday in which EUR/USD fell 1.26%. The euro continues to struggle and is trading at lows last seen in January 2017. The Ukraine war has taken a bite out of the eurozone economy and sent the euro tumbling. The latest development weighing on the euro was Russia's announcement of sanctions on some European gas importers, at a time when the EU is trying to garner support for a ban on Russian oil. Germany has said that it could manage without Russian oil, but the main stumbling block to the ban appears to be Hungary, which is very dependent on Russian energy supplies. The euro has broken through major support lines at 1.08 and 1.05, and if it breaches the 1.03 line, we could see move towards parity with the dollar. The wobbly euro hasn't received any support from the ECB, which has been slow to shed its dovish policy. After years of monetary easing, ECB members are becoming more vocal about the need for tighter policy, and ECB President Christine Lagarde said earlier this week that QE would end in the third quarter, and a rate hike would follow "some time" after that. We could see a rate increase as early as July, although it's unclear if the ECB will launch a rate cycle with a hike of 25 or 50 basis points. The US dollar has shined against the majors, buoyed by an aggressive Federal Reserve. The April US inflation report indicated that expectations of an inflation peak were premature, as CPI fell only slightly, from 8.5% to 8.3%. Fed Chair Powell has signalled that the Fed will deliver 0.50% rate increases in June and July, as the Fed is focused on lowering inflation, which has hit a 40-year high. There has been some talk of a 0.75% hike, but it is far more likely that the Fed will stick with 0.50% moves, hoping that they can do the trick and wrestle down inflation. 1.0398 has switched to resistance. It is a weak line and could see further action during the day. Above, there is resistance at 1.0473 There is support at 1.0321 and 1.0246
by OANDA
New Zealand dollar sinks after US CPIThis week has gone from bad to worse for the New Zealand dollar, as NZD/USD has taken a tumble on Thursday. In the North American session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.6248, down 0.74% on the day. The currency has dropped 2.66% this week and is trading at lows not seen since June 2020. The US inflation report for April showed that CPI eased, but the decline was much smaller than expected. US CPI dropped from 8.5% to 8.3%, above the estimate of 8.1%. This chilled any speculation of an '"inflation peak", as the markets digested the fact that even if inflation is moving lower, it could do so at a very slow pace. For the Fed, the high inflation reading confirms that its hawkish stance is justified, but now there are calls for policy makers to be even more aggressive in tightening the monetary screws. The Fed has signalled that it plans to deliver 50-bps increases in June and July, but the markets aren't dismissing the possibility of a massive 75-bps hike. Fed member James Bullard said on Wednesday that 50-bps moves were his base case and this appears to be the majority view. Still, inflation was higher than investors or the Fed had expected, and the May inflation report, which will be released just a few days prior to the Fed's next meeting on June 14-15th, will be critical in determining the size of the next rate hike. The Fed has embarked on a rate-hike cycle primarily because of soaring inflation, so it stands to reason that inflation will be a key factor in rate policy. Fed member Mester said on Tuesday that she supports raising rates by 50-bps at the next two meetings and then speeding up or slowing down the pace of increases based on inflation levels. The RBNZ is also under pressure to tighten more aggressively after Inflation Expectations for Q2 crept upwards to 3.29% (3.27% prior). Inflation Expectations have now risen for an eighth successive month, and the RBNZ is looking to reverse this trend. At the April meeting, the RBNZ said it would act to ensure that "current high consumer price inflation does not become embedded into longer-term inflation expectations.”  With Inflation Expectations not showing any signs of easing, the RBNZ is widely expected to raise rates by 50-bps at the May 25th meeting. NZD/USD is down sharply and has broken below support at 0.6281. Below, there is support at 0.6169 There is resistance at 0.6344 and 0.6456
by OANDA
GOLD and other metals now is a safe heavenHi I am glad I put some of my money from crypto to silver few months ago for days like these. Now situation is not how to make money but how to safe current wealth. In the chart we can see that DXY is rising and Gold is rising, when usualy DXY up, gold is down, but this time is different because of inflation, not because of healthy economic factors. GOLD is not falling because of inflation and DXY is rising because of trust of dollar, trust dollar only because interest rate up, that means more valuable dollar, because interest rate compensates inflation It says alot about dollar. FED does not have any choices than rise rates, which means stronger dollar and bancrupting companies. Please remember that Buffet holding a lot of cash, guess for what? Yes inflation is destroing him billions in cash, but we and businesses pay for the inflation in advance and this is how he will recover and will make more by investing in stocks maybe crypto and other assets. Many people whould love to be in Buffet situation at the moment when having much of they wealth in dollars (I mean not having billions, but having most of your wealth in dollars), because FED is your friend today. Dollar will colapse for sure, but it does not say anything, everything would say if we know when it will happen. I guess the key moment will be US election in 2022 autumn ... Thanks
OANDA:XAUEURShort
by Tadf
Pound rises on US inflation, GDP loomsThe British pound is in positive territory, as the currency tries to break a four-day losing streak. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2355, up 0.36% on the day. US inflation dipped in April, but still came in above the forecast. Headline CPI dropped from 8.5% to 8.3%, above the estimate of 8.1%. Core CPI came in at 6.2%, down from 6.5% but above the estimate of 6.0%. The US dollar is broadly lower as a result, although the decline would have been sharper had the estimates been right on. Today's inflation data will no doubt result in some headlines proclaiming an "inflation peak", but I would caution that it seems premature to declare that inflation is on its way down after just one release. Higher interest rates will do the job and curtail inflation, but it will take time. In the meantime, today's inflation report will not change the Fed's stance, and the CME's FedWatch has pegged the likelihood of a 50-bps rate hike in June at 89%. Looking forward, inflation gazing has become even trickier in the current environment. There are huge unknowns around price pressures due to the Ukraine war, as well as the extent of China's slowdown and the impact on supply chains due to China's uncompromising zero-Covid policy. With energy prices at very high levels, it will be difficult for headline CPI to come down. Over in the UK, we'll get a load of data on Tuesday. The key release, Preliminary GDP for Q1, is expected to slow to 1.0%, down from 1.3% in the fourth quarter. The UK economy is showing an unhealthy mix of slower growth together with soaring inflation, which has raised concerns about stagflation. The BoE has been raising rates to curb inflation, but investors have not been impressed, as the pound has hit hard times and hit a 23-month low earlier this week. There is support at 1.2199 and 1.2056 GBP/USD faces resistance at 1.2272 and 1.2418
by OANDA
Interest Rates vs Everyone - How Crypto Can Bounce BackA pretty rough week for the markets - especially crypto. The recent dips are a result of mainstream money (crypto curious, but not necessarily dedicated) leaving the space as a response to inflation woes and the Federal Reserve planning to increase interest rates over 2022. The US housing markets are also set to slow down as well, possibly leading to a recession in the US markets and the global economy as a whole. What's the silver lining? Well, the last time the housing market dipped was in 2008-2012, which coincides directly when Bitcoin itself was invented by Satoshi Nakamoto. Will the same sort of sentiment emerge as a result of fiat money crashing this time around? Time will tell.
ECONOMICS:USINTRLong
by RyanTanaka
2