GOLD and other metals now is a safe heavenHi
I am glad I put some of my money from crypto to silver few months ago for days like these.
Now situation is not how to make money but how to safe current wealth. In the chart we can see that DXY is rising and Gold is rising, when usualy
DXY up, gold is down, but this time is different because of inflation, not because of healthy economic factors. GOLD is not falling because of inflation
and DXY is rising because of trust of dollar, trust dollar only because interest rate up, that means more valuable dollar, because interest rate compensates inflation
It says alot about dollar.
FED does not have any choices than rise rates, which means stronger dollar and bancrupting companies.
Please remember that Buffet holding a lot of cash, guess for what? Yes inflation is destroing him billions in cash, but
we and businesses pay for the inflation in advance and this is how he will recover and will make more by investing in stocks maybe crypto and other assets.
Many people whould love to be in Buffet situation at the moment when having much of they wealth in dollars (I mean not having billions, but having most of your wealth in dollars),
because FED is your friend today.
Dollar will colapse for sure, but it does not say anything, everything would say if we know when it will happen. I guess the key moment will be US election in 2022 autumn ...
Thanks
Federalreserve
Pound rises on US inflation, GDP loomsThe British pound is in positive territory, as the currency tries to break a four-day losing streak. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2355, up 0.36% on the day.
US inflation dipped in April, but still came in above the forecast. Headline CPI dropped from 8.5% to 8.3%, above the estimate of 8.1%. Core CPI came in at 6.2%, down from 6.5% but above the estimate of 6.0%. The US dollar is broadly lower as a result, although the decline would have been sharper had the estimates been right on.
Today's inflation data will no doubt result in some headlines proclaiming an "inflation peak", but I would caution that it seems premature to declare that inflation is on its way down after just one release. Higher interest rates will do the job and curtail inflation, but it will take time. In the meantime, today's inflation report will not change the Fed's stance, and the CME's FedWatch has pegged the likelihood of a 50-bps rate hike in June at 89%.
Looking forward, inflation gazing has become even trickier in the current environment. There are huge unknowns around price pressures due to the Ukraine war, as well as the extent of China's slowdown and the impact on supply chains due to China's uncompromising zero-Covid policy. With energy prices at very high levels, it will be difficult for headline CPI to come down.
Over in the UK, we'll get a load of data on Tuesday. The key release, Preliminary GDP for Q1, is expected to slow to 1.0%, down from 1.3% in the fourth quarter. The UK economy is showing an unhealthy mix of slower growth together with soaring inflation, which has raised concerns about stagflation. The BoE has been raising rates to curb inflation, but investors have not been impressed, as the pound has hit hard times and hit a 23-month low earlier this week.
There is support at 1.2199 and 1.2056
GBP/USD faces resistance at 1.2272 and 1.2418
Interest Rates vs Everyone - How Crypto Can Bounce BackA pretty rough week for the markets - especially crypto. The recent dips are a result of mainstream money (crypto curious, but not necessarily dedicated) leaving the space as a response to inflation woes and the Federal Reserve planning to increase interest rates over 2022. The US housing markets are also set to slow down as well, possibly leading to a recession in the US markets and the global economy as a whole.
What's the silver lining? Well, the last time the housing market dipped was in 2008-2012, which coincides directly when Bitcoin itself was invented by Satoshi Nakamoto. Will the same sort of sentiment emerge as a result of fiat money crashing this time around? Time will tell.
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For May 6, 2022Technical Analysis and Outlook
The downtrend as specified in Daily Chart Analysis For April 29, 2022
to Major Mean Sup 4070 is firm and concrete. Down movement continuation to Next Outer Index Dip, 3990 must obsolete the Major Key Sup to continue - we will observe and track this the following week's session. Interim bullish moves are possible within the current downtrend.
NZDUSD; Forex recap and the week aheadWhile NZDUSD continued its bearishness last week, it showed a strong move up on Wednesday to produce a Thursday high. However, it sold off very quickly as it continued its drop during Thursday's London and New York sessions.
The pair mostly consolidated on Monday and Tuesday. NZ Unemployment Rate report was the only high impact news coming from New Zealand last week but failed to affect a substantial move, and the NZDUSD kept inside of Monday’s range.
Last week, the big fundamental impact came from the US, which had FOMC on Wednesday and Non-Farm Payroll on Friday. The former event is what finally broke the pair out of its range, pushing up over 130 pips in just a couple of hours. As noted above, the pair quickly reversed this climb and eventually ended the week lower by 0.77%. The NZDUSD has now racked up a monthly loss of just over 7.00%. The next two worst performing pairs on the monthly time scale are the GBPUSD and the AUDUSD, down by 5.63% and 5.48%, respectively.
In the chart, we see the weekly opening price, and last Thursday’s high noted. In the bottom window, we see the Stochastic indicator from TradingView.
Traders who use this indicator will try to look for overbought or oversold areas in price - gauging whether a sell or buy is unfolding when the indicator is showing extremes on either end of the window. It could also be used for divergence as we see a few hours before FOMC news. The indicator did not make a lower low, while the NZD/USD moved slightly lower than the low made in the previous session.
Next week’s high impact events
Events relating to the NZDUSD this week are the numerous speeches by US Federal Reserve officials. President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Raphael Bostic, speaks on Monday and Tuesday, likely to further dampen hopes for a 75 basis points hike from the Fed in June. The more hawkish officials such as John C. Williams (Federal Reserve Bank of New York) and Christopher Waller (Board of Governors) take the mic after Bostic, potential building a case against Bostic’s and Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s dovishness.
Thrown in the mix this week is the US Inflation Rate YoY for April. This report is due on Wednesday (UTC+4) and is expected to fall closer to 8.0% from 8.5% in March.
Sterling falls below 1.23The British pound has stabilized on Friday, after sustaining huge losses a day earlier. GBP/USD is trading at 1.2342 in the European session, down 0.11%. Earlier, the currency fell to 1.2276, its lowest level since June 2020.
The BoE dutifully raised interest rates at its meeting on Thursday, but the market reception was a chilly one. GBP/USD plummeted a staggering 2.21% on the day. Investors gave a thumbs-down to the grim message from the central bank, as a fourth straight rate hike in as many meetings became an afterthought.
The BoE's growth forecast for 2022 remained at 3.75%, but it slashed the 2023 projection from 1.25% to -0.25%. At the same time, the central revised upwards its inflation forecast for Q4 to above 10%, up from 8% in an April forecast. The 'double-whammy' of higher rates and a deteriorating economic outlook sent the British pound reeling after the BoE meeting.
The rate decision was a 6-3 vote, with all three dissenters voting in favor of a 0.50% rate hike. This surprised the markets, which had expected an 8-1 vote. There is a deep split in the MPC, with Governor Bailey acknowledging after the meeting that an uncertain economic outlook had led to a range of views in the MPC. Such a statement can hardly be expected to instill confidence in the British pound on the part of investors.
In its policy summary, the BoE signalled that more rate hikes are coming, and also dropped the word "modest" to describe upcoming rate hikes. Yet the markets were not impressed - the 0.25% increase was modest, and with the BoE warning about 10% inflation, it's clear that it will take quite some time before rate hikes do the job and wrestle down sizzling inflation.
The US dollar initially lost ground after the Fed rate decision on Wednesday, as investors seized on Fed Chair Powell's statement that the Fed was not considering a 0.75% rate hike. The greenback has since bounced back, as the markets digest that the Fed plans to be aggressive with further 0.50% hikes in its battle to bring down inflation.
There is resistance at 1.2612 and 1.2719
GBP/USD tested support at 1.2272 in the Asian session. Below there is support at 1.2179
Microsoft - End of an era / back to the 80sPRIOR BEAR MARKET
After such a disappointing day across all markets, Microsoft of all names is now showing signs of topping out. The first time since 2000. Back then, Microsoft corrected over time rather than just in price. Taking 9 years before finally capitulating for a 62% total decline. Given it’s gradual ascent in recent years, something similar may now lie ahead.
CURRENT PRICE ACTION
A close below $262 and Microsoft will paint a sell / short signal. RSI has already crossed into a bearish zone (below 40) on the weekly timeframe, suggesting an almost inevitability to downside price action.
Like AMD, MSFT is showing signs of topping in the exponential channel (shown in the main chart above) and has closed below the top of it twice in the past 6 months. Next step for confirming the bearish case, would be to fall below the 50 week MA of $262.
BEARISH TARGETS
Assuming this happens in the coming days, we can start talking about targets. The top of the purple consolidation area, became a firm bottom last time around. If this were to play-out again this would represent a 70% decline, at a price of $78. The 0.618 fib retracement sits at $105 if you find comfort in a more reasonable and less aggressive target.
BULLISH TARGETS
If this one doesn't go as anticipated, a close above $310 would prolong and delay the bearish thesis. Regardless, MSFT is looking awfully toppy here, with a price to earnings ratio of still 31.9. Take profits and stay clear on buys at the very least. Any further upside is limited. Let's keep an eye on this one for the next 5-10 years…
SIDE NOTE
This chart has traded so textbook perfectly since 1986, that it has made for such simple investing and a near-perfect case study for this exponential indicator. If you'd acquired a position for $2,000 back then, you would be sitting on $10,634,879, with still an open position of $101k. Astronomical gains.
Officer Omicron and Insurgent Inflation Team Up To Fight the FedScene 1
Darth Powell summons the legends of the past to formulate the plan to fight the Omicron and Inflation insurgence.
Brigadier Bernanke, General Greenspan and Veteran Volcker report for duty.
“We are at an event horizon, what should we do?” declares Powell.
“Pretend it isn’t happening”, says Greenspan
“Bailout everything, print more money,” says Bernanke
“I killed inflation forever, this cannot be happening,” says Volcker
Powell rises from his throne and addresses the senate.
"There is nothing to see here. We will continue as normal, and start to cool off our insurgent inflation with the ice bath of interest rates, and the tepid taste of tapering."
In the background the sound of screaming.
Cut Scene 1.
Scene 2.
The morning after a sweet night of passion, Omicron and Inflation wake up with a hangover and get to work on terrorizing the economy. Officer Omicron has already infected 30% of the planet and inflation is rampant.
Cut Scene 2.
Well, that was exciting, but if the global economy was a star wars movie, it would be something like this.
A big gap down today, and the short-term outlook is definitely to the downside, with limited room for stimulus, and unlimited room for inflation, virus infections, and lockdowns.
Short-term RSI – Nasty
KST – Nasty
AD Ratio - ouch
Choose Your Ending
Scene 3.
After two hard years the people of Naboo (earth) are battered yet determined to summon the force to fight whatever stands in their way. It will be tough, but we will beat nature and fight to live another day. 15% to 20% drop in equities, a collapse in crypto, followed by a green revolution where we live in ESG harmony.
Scene 4.
Mother natures death star finally scourges us to hell causing the next great depression, which takes an entire generation to recover from. (Like the 2000 dotcom bust 8-year recovery)
Scene 5.
Darth Powell farts, and the world goes on as normal 😊
Cast your vote now.
Scene 3, 4, or 5.
If you like, then hit like.
Barry
This is A Bear Market Rally, Be CarefulWe saw a strong move to the upside after the Fed hiked interest rates by 50 basis points yesterday but does that mean that the trend has reversed? Most definitely not! Watch this video to see my forecast and what we need to see before we can assume a trend change.
Happy trading!
Linton
Today's Closing on a local Triple Top - Where to Now?Given the somewhat bullish news from the Fed today, a rate hike of only 50 basis points and no larger hikes in the near future, things seem to be looking up.
The news gave way to a major rally midday, erasing losses since- well, last Monday.
However, it should be noted that the fed slipped in a dirty curveball: in June it will start a multi-trillion dollar balance sheet runoff starting June 1st.
In the month ahead, it should be expected that the market will be trying to gauge what this will mean for them.
As a hint, the last time the Fed dumped its balance sheet in response to extreme economic conditions was in December of 2008. October's decline caused a run-up in the fed's balance sheet as the housing market began to tilt sideways. When things seemed stable, the Fed ran off nearly 20% of its holdings in the 2 months following- before the stock market reached its lows that following March. This coming runoff isn't nearly as drastic, as the fed maintains a $8.9 trillion fund and is only giving up $47.5 billion a month for the first three months, and $90 billion for the next three. This equates to only a 4.6% drop, over a much longer period of time.
Will the balance sheet runoff be enough to curb inflation? Only time will tell.
However, I take it as a sign that we've not yet hit the bottom in this market.
Continuing this thought, let's look at the hourly chart for the S&P 500.
We're seeing some resistance at the 4300 mark. We seem to have closed on a Triple Top, and today's rally wasn't enough to blow past this target ( again! ). The previous two times we've hit this figure, it looks like we've declined by 3% & 5%. My best guess is that if tomorrow does not carry this rally's momentum higher, we'll be seeing a 8% decline from here by Monday. If after fully digesting today's news the market decides to continue its rally into tomorrow, we could even reach the top of this bearish channel. However, the RSI on this chart seems to have topped out and the MACD seems ready for a reversal.
Basic technicals seem to point downward from here. If we break out of the bottom of this channel, as outlined in the chart, it could spell gloomy days for the market overall. This resonates with the nervous "big crash" bears, I'm sure. But what do you think? Are we to continue the rally this week, or bounce off of this triple top?
Surely going to Fly after FED rate HikeLooking Bullish on H1,Many economic indicators pointing to slowing economic conditions and everyone’s convinced the #FED is the #inflation slayer ready to hike overnight rates to 3%…while they may raise 25-50bps to save face they may also reverse course by the next meeting, caveat emptor
Bitcoin Price Projections Based on Fed Rate IncreasesTraders,
We all know that the USD is still the global reserve currency. And who governs the strength or weakness of the dollar? Yours truly, JPOW and co. Crypto currency prices are absolutely without question tied to the broader markets and the U.S. dollar. Therefore, we MUST consider how our crypto lead dawg will respond to JPOW's rate decision. With that said, here's what I see in the cards for ole' BTC. Let's start with the worst-case scenario:
JPOW rug pulls the market with an enormous 75 pt hike or more - we drop below our strong and very critical 37550 support, somewhere in the purple
JPOW does the expected 50 point hike & either speaks to another 50 pts hike soon or insinuates such action - we remain below our multi-year resistance level and move sideways-ish, somewhere in the red
JPOW does the expected 50 point hike & either speaks to another 25 pt hike soon or insinuates softer action going forward - we either remain red or it is possible we go yellow again
JPOW only bumps it 25! - Rocket fuel! It's moon time again! Green area. 🚀🚀🚀
Watch closely, everything (and I mean EVERYTHING) hinges upon the FED today!
Press release 2:30 EST (I believe).
Best to you all,
-Stewdam.us
Prediction of 4 Scenarios from Fed's decision on BTC From what I've managed to gather, 7 out of 9 governors vote for a +50bp hike; 8 out of 9 are in favor of reducing B/S.
If the news to be released in 3.5 hours comes out with reducing balance sheet, which is likely to take effect in June, then highly likely we’ll see a black swan.
+50bp is within expectation, but it’s still negative to the market. We can expect a pull back in 1-3 days but it’s not strong enough to reverse as liquidity is under the pressure of flowing out…
Welcome your comment and ideas.
Viva la Bitcoin.
Safe trading, frens.
India VIXWith FOMC outcome due tonight, volatility is increasing sharply (pre-event uncertainty)
We are in the dark as to what FED will do tonight - so many possibilities, add to that statement - hawkish or dovish
25 bps market will rally
50 bps appears discounted
75 bps market will panic
Hence better to stay light
Above 21.75 the crucial resistance is at 2.80 if that breaches then be prepared for extreme moves (we have just seen the trailer in that case) all the way till 28
This would be mean large intra-day candles & gap openings. Avoid writing PE during such time unless well hedged. Also reduce derivative exposure its not worth it during such times.
Post event wait for VIX to start cooling down, trend direction will become clear by then
EURUSD Outlook for May 2022...My analysis for EURUSD on the monthly timeframe. Includes some simple fundamental perspective but if you want to discuss fundamentals in depth feel free to comment below. Aside from that, there's not much the dollar can do to beat anticipations unless liquidity of the dollar really tightens. In that scenario, the dollar will really strengthen and we could see parity, but I don't think the Fed will tolerate that or even risk the possibility. It's more of a possibility that something breaks in the U.S. economy, which is the case when every recession has happened in the U.S., so it would be sudden. Aside from that the Euro is moving well economically too, maybe a little less enthusiasm towards it than the dollar and more of a risk to it's bullish scenario comes from Russia, energy and slowdown in the EU as a result of sanctions and high prices.
Either way, technicals on the lower timeframes to follow...
The Euro Is Heading for Parity Against the DollarThe US dollar and the euro are the world’s reserve currencies. Political and economic stability and free convertibility are the requirements for reserve currency status. Central banks and governments worldwide gold the US and European currencies as reserve assets.
The exchange rate between the US dollar and the euro is multifactorial. Interest rate differentials, political trends, and other issues determine the value of each foreign exchange instrument versus the other. The euro has been around since January 1, 1999, and euro notes and coins were only available two decades ago, in 2002. The euro currency opened for trading in the futures market in April 2001 at an exchange rate of $0.8760 versus the US dollar.
The euro first rose above parity with the US currency in July 2002. The last time it was below was in December 2002, but the recent exchange rate price action and the factors determining currency values could send the euro back to levels not seen in two decades.
New highs in the dollar index- Approaching the test of the 2020 high
The US dollar index has a 57.6% exposure to the euro currency. Since January 2021, the dollar index has been on a bullish path, making higher lows and higher highs.
As the chart highlights, the dollar index futures contract moved from a low of 89.165 in early January 2021 to the most recent high of 103.950 on April 28, 2022, a 16.6% rise. The index is approaching a critical technical resistance level.
The long-term chart shows the upside target stands at the March 2020 103.960 high, the highest level for the index since 2022. A break above that level will make the next upside target the July 2001 121.290 high. A move towards that level would push the euro below parity against the US dollar for the first time in two decades.
Lower lows in the euro versus the US dollar foreign exchange relationship
A bearish trend in the euro versus the US dollar currency relationship is nothing new.
The chart shows the euro reached an all-time high against the dollar in July 2008 at $1.6038. Since then, it has been all downhill for the European currency. The euro reached a low of $1.03405 in January 2017. After a recovery took the euro to above the $1.25 level in February 2018, the downtrend resumed, and it was approaching the early 2017 low on April 29 at below the $1.075272 level. A move below the $1.03405 level makes the target the critical psychological parity level.
Herding cats- The European economic challenge
The European Union is a collection of countries with diverse cultures. Moreover, economic policy is a blend of different orientations to monetary and fiscal policies.
Southern Europe has depended on tourism and has had a far looser approach to economic management than the austerity of the north. The north has been the industrial powerhouse, providing financial stability for the Union.
Greece, Italy, Spain, and Portugal are far different economies than Germany, France, the Netherlands, and Belgium. Policy agreement between the Union members has been like herding feral cats over the past two decades. The north has bailed out the south routinely, causing stress on relationships within the Union and pressure on the euro currency.
Cultural differences have been the borders since the establishment of the European Union and continue to be a factor that impacts the euro’s value.
War on the border- An aggressive Russia is bad news for the euro
In early 2022, the European Union is facing its most challenging test since its birth. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine launched the first major war in Europe since WW II. Russian aggression is a challenge to NATO countries, particularly those bordering the former Soviet Empire. Over the coming years, European military budgets will need to dramatically increase to provide safety and deterrence against the Russian aggressor. As military spending rises, it is likely to pressure the euro currency as the Union faces new threats that transcend the costs of the cultural divide between the northern and southern countries. The threat will likely unify the north and south, but the price tag for unification will be staggering.
Rising US rates are another nail in the euro’s coffin- Parity is only the first stop – The trend is your friend
In currencies, exchange rates are highly sensitive to interest rate differentials. The US dollar and euro are the world’s reserve currencies. The US central bank has shifted its monetary policy path to a more hawkish approach with inflation. raging.
The March consumer and producer price indices rose by 8.5% and 11.2%, respectively. The US Fed ended its quantitative easing in March 2022 and will quickly shift to quantitative tightening, allowing debt securities to roll off its swollen balance sheet at maturities. The FOMC will increase the short-term Fed Funds rate by at least 50 basis points at this week’s May 4 meeting. US short-term interest rates are going nowhere but higher.
Meanwhile, the US 30-Year Treasury bond futures have been a falling knife, pushing interest rates higher further out along the yield curve.
The chart shows the decline in the long bond futures since the March 2020 high. The most recent 138-14 low on April 20, 2021, took the bellwether government bond futures to the lowest level since November 2018. Critical technical support stands at the October 2018 136-16 low. Below there, the next target is the 2013 127-23 low.
A falling bond market and higher interest rates make the dollar more attractive than the euro. Europe cannot afford to increase interest rates and keep pace with the US dollar interest hikes because of its economic and geopolitical landscapes. Therefore, the dollar’s bullish trend will likely continue over the coming weeks and months.
Bull and bear markets rarely move in straight lines. Currency markets tend to experience far lower volatility than stocks, bonds, commodities, and other asset classes as governments manage price moves with intervention to provide stability. However, technical and fundamental factors support the path to parity for the dollar and euro currencies. In 2000, the euro reached $0.8901 against the dollar, the long-term technical target.
A stronger dollar and weak euro will have significant ramifications for markets across all asset classes, but the currency markets are a mirage as they trade in a vacuum. A trip to the supermarket, gas pump, or purchasing any goods or services in dollars reveals that the US currency has lost substantial purchasing power over the past year. The dollar may be strong against the euro, and it looks set to continue the current path, but all fiat currencies are losing power. As one strategist said the dollar is “the cleanest shirt in the dirty laundry.”
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Trading advice given in this communication, if any, is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that we believe are reliable. The author does not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects the author’s good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice the author provides will result in profitable trades. There is risk of loss in all futures and options trading. Any investment involves substantial risks, including, but not limited to, pricing volatility , inadequate liquidity, and the potential complete loss of principal. This article does not in any way constitute an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any investment, security, or commodity discussed herein, or any security in any jurisdiction in which such an offer would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction.
Potential Bearish Flag in Homebuilder ETFHomebuilders are among the worst-performing groups this year as interest rates increase. Now there could be a bearish continuation pattern in the iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF .
ITB sank to a 52-week low around $57 one month ago, followed by a period of consolidation. The lows have inched higher during this time, creating a potential bearish flag.
Second, notice the lower highs starting on April 21. These occurred near a falling trendline along the highs of January and March.
Third, the eight-day exponential moving average (EMA) has remained below the 21-day EMA. That suggests the intermediate-term downtrend remains in effect.
Finally, ITB has yet to reach potentially important support. The main level buyers may target could be closer to $51.50, the lows in September and October of 2020.
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Bitcoin Pivotal Week AheadBTC has followed a descending parallel channel since Nov 2021 ATH shedding >52% in late Jan to.$32.9k. Since the low, BTC rallied to a local high of $48k in late March before resuming the gradual mark-down. Currently sitting >40% from ATH @ $38.8k.
Bitcoin Weekly Chart currently above 100 EMA while the 20 EMA has crossed below the 50.
Previous FOMC in early March following 25 bps hike, the market rallies in the face of a "hawkish sounding" Federal Reserve... casting doubt on the seriousness of reining in rampant inflation that's achieved highest levels in >40 years w/ no sign of slowing.
Critical juncture in price action, as BTC will likely put in a red daily candle Monday 5/2 and look for direction from the broader markets over May 3rd & 4th.
Potential for market upswing following the Fed's decisions is possible and would fall in line with March market response to Fed's seemingly hollow words.
The more like scenario is market realization that inflation is problematic and Fed's efforts to reduce central bank balance sheets via quantitative tightening has teeth and will continue the gradual market corrections we've seen in Q1.
Macro factors are indicating headwinds continue as GDP in Q1 was down, labor remains incredibly tight, prices remain unsustainably high.
Bitcoin likely to creep down to $35k range as the market considers Fed actions and decides on a direction.