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GBP/USD - Short Sell Fundamental and Technical Set Up UpdateThe Pound has extended its weakness against the U.S Dollar as the UK economy slips closer to a recession. The UK cost of living crisis, which is down to high energy prices, rising taxes, and now higher interest rates is increasing the public mortgage, credit cards, car loans, student debt and other debt payments, causing investors to question the amount of interest rate hikes the Bank of England can deliver without causing a recession. I break this down in more detail in the video.
Short
by KayansMarkets
1 trade, 2 probabilities !Hello all, I was expecting the sell off to continue - It did - but very briefly. ________________________ BTC - S&P 500 correlation : Btc was more bullish than SPX on the openning, the index have achieved Lower lows and BTC is on a bullish trend. Finally when the buying kicked off the index spiked and guess what ? BTC too ! Current situation : Currently we can see that BTC has been pumping all day since the european sesion till the end of the American session. It has continued with Asians too, well at least at the moment I'm writing these words. Speculation : I think that we might see a slightly bearish movement in a form of correction since we have broken a significant resistance/support line before continuing up (this direction is represented by the blue line). Despite this bullish movement. I strongly think that the macro-economic factor is going to heavily impact the markets when the federal reserve starts hiking those rates again ! The first hiking might occur on the debut of May so the rally might continue untill then ! Before that, and after reaching the yellow cercle we can see the first important correction where we will be retesting the bottom grey line (the movement represented by the red arrow) or just continuing up. The green arrow to me is very less probable but not impossible ! Decision making architecture : The thing that made me reverse today before taking my trading is the volume ! Not only BTC is pumping, but it is pumping with enough volume to give the trend credebility ! the S&P divergence and the volume made me go long. Oh yeah I forget and one more thing ! I don't short the bottoms ! If you appreciate the efforts, hit that agree button, thank you.
by Pleased_Owl
Bank of Canada hints at half-point hikeThe Canadian dollar has been on a nasty slide, falling around 2% since Thursday. There are no Canadian releases until GDP on Friday, which means that US releases during the week will have a significant impact on the movement of USD/CAD. Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem can usually be counted on for using clear and understandable language, which I'm always grateful for, as I vividly recall trying to decipher Alan Greenspan's Fedspeak years ago. Unlike Greenspan, Macklem wants the markets to actually understand what he's saying. The BoC delivered a 0.50% hike earlier this month, the largest increase in over 20 years. Macklem remains in hawkish mode and said on Monday that additional 0.50% increases were being considered. The markets expect the BoC to tighten at a fast pace - a 0.50% has been priced in for the June meeting, with a slight possibility of a massive 0.75% hike. The primary driver for the BoC's aggressive stance is, of, course, the surge in inflation. The BoC is committed to wrestling inflation down from its highest level in 30 years, with the challenge of raising rates enough to curb inflation without bringing the economy to a screeching halt. The BoC is also keeping an eye on what's happening down south with the Federal Reserve. With the US also grappling with soaring inflation, the Fed may deliver 0.50% hikes as well, and this will likely propel the US dollar higher. The BoC doesn't want to see the Canadian dollar get pummelled and with rates set to go as high as 3% by year's end, the BoC should be able to keep in sync with the Fed, which will help the Canadian currency keep pace with the US dollar. With the BoC aggressively raising rates and oil prices around the 100-dollar mark, the outlook for the Canadian dollar is positive. USD/CAD has support at 1.2632 and 1.2537 There is resistance at 1.2804 and 1.2899
by OANDA
Timing is everything! While the general direction for the US Fed and the ECB are similar, their timelines differ greatly! On the US Fed (USD) front, we are days away from the next FOMC meeting (4th May 2022) where market participants are expecting a 50 bps hike. On the ECB (EUR) front, the ECB is expected to taper its asset purchase program by early Q3, before it will consider any rate hikes. The difference in timelines of the Fed and ECB could provide some interesting hints on where the EURUSD is heading in the short term. With the Dollar being the first mover here, we expect strength in the dollar to drive the EURUSD lower over the short term before the ECB firms up its hike schedule. The EURUSD pair is also trading just below the 7- year support level. Zooming in on a shorter timeframe, we also spot a breakout and retest at this level, suggesting the move has begun. Entry at 1.08070, stop above 1.12080. Targets are 1.06760 and 1.03835. Disclaimer: The contents in this Idea are intended for information purpose only and do not constitute investment recommendation or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios.
CME:6E1!Short
by inspirante
Range break out ! What you need to know?Hello traders 👋! I already shared an idea 💡that btc will be ranging this week-end from 39,370$ to 39,930$ 💵 (see the chart bellow) but the real question is WHEN RALLY and WHERE ? I think the first movements we that will be seeing is at the Asian trading session 🐉 begining, In this session we will be seeing a fakeout or a stop loss hunt to the opposing side than a rally to the main trend direction. Put simply, if the market makers wants the prices to go down, they will do a fakeout to the top hiting the short SL by making a new high than heading to the bottom. or heading to the bottom Hitting the long SL than going back to the top ! This is known as "LIQUIDITY GRAB" This pattern is exclusive for post week-end trading ! ______________________________________________ So, where are we heading ? DOWN ! WE"RE GOING DOWN ! 📉 Why ? THE FED. The federal reserve declarations latetly has been causing the markets to rush into fear 😱 specially the declarations about selling their risky assets and rising interest rates to fight inflation caused by the distribution chain & the Russian war. Therefore, we will be seeing more downtrend in correlation with the S&P500 index, since lately BTC has been correlated 70% with the NASDAQ & more than that with the S&P. If you found this idea insightfull please hit the like button and share with me your opinion down in the comment.
by Pleased_Owl
1
Disney's Troubled Waters$DIS has been in a slow decline since March 2021 ATH. Recent political winds have shifted and Florida is rescinding the "Reedy Creek" special purpose district that's been in place since 1967 following partisan policymaking. The most recent declines this week are not indicative of the much broader weakening of consumer sentiment, more a doubling down and reinforcement of the economic headwinds corporations are facing in light of rampant inflation and a Federal Reserve that is no longer able to accomodate loose monetary policies. Given the likelihood of central banks taking dramatic steps in the coming months and major economic indicators screaming correction, it's not surprising to see companies like Disney & Netflix show significant weakness as consumers curtail spending. This appears to be more of a leading indicator of corporate valuations coming down... similar to the declines at the outset of 2020 before the pandemic really took hold of the global economy. Expect $DIS to test the 200 EMA around $91 in the next two months. Further bearish price action is expected to the March 2020 $79 level. Depending on the broader market's direction and significant recession risk, as the Fed begins divesting assets from its balance sheets along with rate hikes not seen in over a decade... Disney may see even further retraction given its reliance on retail consumer spending behaviors. Recent relevant market pullbacks: 1. Dot.com bubble w/ ~65% retracement 2. Housing bubble with a near 60% retracement prior to Federal Reserve quantitative easing and near zero interest rates.
NYSE:DISShort
by R0MM3LL
$DXY About to Break Out? I mentioned recently on twitter that I am long USDJPY. Not much to say about the dollar, other than it looks like it wants to break out to the upside. Additionally, the macroeconomic tailwinds support a bullish dollar thesis in a couple of ways: 1. The Federal Reserve has been very transparent about their intention to continue to raise interest rates through 2022. Increasing interest rates make the dollar more attractive via the risk-free rate of return. 2. The war in Ukraine: as an added measure towards defeating Russia's war machine, raising interest rates in the US makes exporting dollars to Russia that much less attractive. When I say "exporting dollars to Russia", I am describing a situation in which other sovereign countries who might otherwise be willing to engage in trade with Russia, can now look to the risk free rate of return in dollar-denominated asset classes... so, why would you trade with Russia when you can buy US bonds that pay interest and allow you to stabilize your currency and rebalance your trade policy? 3. Oil prices continue to rise. Russia may pretend to be in control of the market for crude, but so far - this is empty dictatorial rhetoric. 4. Bitcoin continues to deteriorate ( I identified the top in October 2021 ). A stronger dollar, resulting from real world economic conditions, will continue to put adverse pressure on Bitcoin and cryptos alike. last, I am now a little unsure on stocks overall. I am *guessing* stocks will continue to drift sideways for now. God bless, -Chief
TVC:DXYLong
by ChiefMacro
Japanese yen extends slideIt was another rough week at the office for the Japanese yen, as USD/JPY fell 1.67%. The crumpling yen hasn't eked out a daily gain since March and has extended its losses today. In the North American session, USD/JPY is trading at 126.88, up 0.42% on the day. The yen is essentially at the mercy of the US/Japan rate differential, and with that differential continuing to widen, the yen continues to head south. US 10-year Treasury yields rose to 2.87% earlier today, their highest level since 2019. The outlook for USD/JPY remains bearish and we could see the symbolic 130 line fall in the short term. The US Federal Reserve is in hawkish mode, and has telegraphed its intent to increase rates by 0.50% at the May 4th meeting. CME's Fed Watch has set the likelihood of this scenario at 88%, meaning it's a done deal unless there is some drastic, unexpected development ahead of the meeting. The Fed is scrambling to fend off spiralling inflation, which hit 8.5% in March, a 40-year high. With investors looking for clues about how tight the Fed plans to go, comments from senior Fed officials will be carefully scrutinized and could be market-movers. Later today, Fed President James Bullard, one of the most hawkish FOMC members who favours aggressive action from the central bank, will deliver public remarks later in the day, and the markets will be all ears. USD/JPY pushed above its multi-year high of 125.80 last week and the upswing shows no signs of easing. The Bank of Japan has expressed its uneasiness at the rapid fall in the yen's value, but has refrained from anything more than "jawboning" about the issue. It's unlikely that the BoJ will intervene except as a last resort in order to keep 10-year JGB yields below 0.25%, which the Bank has designated as its line in the sand. USD/JPY continues to climb and break above resistance lines. The pair faces resistance at 1.2740 and 1.2837 There is support at 125.72 and 1.2475
by OANDA
1
EuroDollar Futures CurveThe EuroDollar futures market is pricing in rate hikes as seen by the upward slope on the left, but the peak of the curve (contracts which expire in June and September of 2023) suggests that investors believe rates will reach their high and then go down after that and keep going down well into the foreseeable future. This is an ominous sign that the Federal Reserve, and likely central banks all over the world, will be forced to abandon their current monetary policy tightening cycles and go back to near zero or zero rates once again (and likely quantitative easing of an unprecedented magnitude as well. $200B per month in treasuries?). Bottom line, the downward slope in yield marks the approximate time of the next recession, according to the bets that are currently on the table. As always, anything can happen and opinions can change. Buy the dip < Sell the rip
G
by The_Arena_Trader
9
US Inflation is 8.4% For March. How Does This Affect Crypto?Many are bracing for "ugly" numbers for inflation in the United States in this week's Consumer Price Index report - as high as 8.4%. Inflation was, of course, the result of the US Treasury having printed record amounts of money in recent years - highly accelerated in the last few years due to COVID spending; further made worse by lockdown procedures that caused disruptions in the supply chain that inflated prices even further. White House officials are attempting to peg it to Putin's action against Ukraine but that's only a small part of the picture and may not make a difference as consumers and voters start to feel inflation pressures directly in their day to day lives. As poll numbers and approval ratings continue to turn against the incumbency a tones of desperation can be seen in the way the current administration talks about economic issues at hand. (Massive upsets in political races are already happening and is expected to continue into Nov 22' and beyond.) In the short-term, both crypto and stock markets (including Russia's MOEX) has taken a downturn after the news of high inflation numbers began to hit. Fears of inflation have spooked off part of the investor community - however, being that Bitcoin (and most crypto coins) have branded themselves as being a "hedge" against inflationary woes, the real trend is yet to come. Crypto investors are banking on there being a massive loss of confidence in the USD and have much of that money flow into the crypto ecosystem for outsized gains. Either way, a "moment of truth" seem to be well on its way in 2022 as these trends continue unabated. (As talked about in "Is Dogecoin Crypto's New Stablecoin?" and "The 'People's Coin' - Why Dogecoin is Forever", DOGE has shown relative resilience against today's downturn - the upside to its focus on utility over speculation.)
Long
by RyanTanaka
90
How Aggressive Will The Fed be? 4/11/2022ES Daily. First off, most traders are not economists. In fact, most retail traders are (ironically) financially illiterate. For example, can you answer the difference between monetarist theory and Keynesian Economics theory? Do you know the difference between a 10K or a 10Q? The reason why I'm making these statements is because most traders seem to confident in their predictions. However, once questioned with basic economic or financial questions, that's when you can tell their "prediction" is based on bias and opinion and not actual data. Historically, that type of behavior is dangerous. For example, economists and retail traders were panicking over another recession back in 2011, 2013, 2015, and 2018. The question is the title is also relevant. A lot of talking heads on news media, social media posts, and retail traders were so worried about the first rate hike leading up to March FOMC. In the macro view, the first rate hike rarely causes a large crash. Although, the weeks leading up to the first rate hike usually has a correction of around 11%-ish. What traders should've been asking is how aggressive will the Federal Reserve be with both rate hikes and money vacuuming (reverse money printing)? Will they go slow like the 2010s or fast like in 2004-2007? Historically, whenever the Federal Reserve aggressively raise rates and tighten, a recession follows 1-3 years after. 1979-80, 1990-92, 1999-2002, and 2008-09 all experienced aggressive tightening 1-3 years before. Each recession has different conditions. 2008 had 14 years of bad mortgage debts. When the Fed aggressively raised rates from 1% to over 5% in less than 3 years, that didn't give enough time to prune out the bad debts in an orderly fashion. From that experience, that rocked the Fed's psychology which is why they went slow during the 2010s. After all, would you want to go down in history as the person who caused another 2008 Recession? Not many would. The Fed's story is basically Goldilocks. Their quantitatively tightening should've be too fast or too slow. It's a balancing act. Too slow and inflation might run away. Too fast and a bigger recession might happen. The Fed managed to have low growth and low inflation in 2018. I think they're trying to strike lightning twice like they did in the 2010s and 1994. Remember, it's very easy to say to accept a recession as a price to control inflation. It's much harder if you're not part of the ultra wealthy class. During 2008, the ultra wealthy lost their yacht or larger estate. The working class lost their jobs. The middle class lost their small businesses.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by Itsallsotiresome
Bonds Sell Off on Hawkish Fed MinutesBonds are back to hugging lows, after a brief attempt at higher levels. We found immediate resistance one level above at 121'00. Even the rally to that level encountered serious resistance at every step, confirmed by red triangles on the KRI. We are back to lows again at 120'14. The Kovach OBV is very bearish so we can expect an imminent breakdown to lower levels. Our next target is 119'23, which is significant as we will have given up the 120's all together.
CBOT:ZN1!Short
by quantguy
Risk: On or Off? Gold & BitcoinBitcoin has been touted as "digital gold" and even as an "inflation hedge." When you compare BTC to Gold with long-term channels, the Bitcoin chart does look to mirror Gold at approx 15.6:1 timeframes... at least until recently. Bitcoin's creation coincides with the biggest regime change since the USD was disassociated w/ Gold in the early 1970's, its entire existence has been under a dovish monetary environment that encourages risk-on behavior w/ unfettered government intervention into the markets w/ Quantitative Easing. This loose policy has kept markets propped up since the housing market bubble burst. Unfortunately, the March 2020 pandemic response with global economies being halted resulted in unfettered stimulus and bloated Central Bank balance sheets resulting in the appearance of rampant, widespread, persistent inflation. Central Banks are now at a crossroads, continue QE and a dovish policy regime that will exacerbate inflationary price pressures or reverse course. Course reversal as bond yields increase is achieved by raising rate while central banks reduce $9 Trillion in assets. This regime results in risk-off behaviors, apparently causing Gold:Bitcoin chart correlation to disassociate. Given current market response, expect Gold to realize positive PA while Bitcoin is challenged by sell pressure while monetary policies tighten.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by R0MM3LL
DXY - Longer term! $DXY Longer term view Here's a longer term view technicals of DXY - Very important chart especially as we head into march with expected rate hikes and we do have FOMC today - as we anticipated the action forward ..Never forget the market is forward looking as yields head higher. The bullish momentum has occurred last yr Q4. Most of the % hikes is priced in but we could still have more bullish momentum to continue. Bullish if we stay above 50/21 EMA. Bearish if we go below 50/21 EMA. KEY TIP: Higher time frame is always a good indication for short term time frame movement. Trade Safe Disclaimer: Not Financial Advice
TVC:DXY
by Trade_Journal