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Bitcoin Price Projections Based on Fed Rate IncreasesTraders, We all know that the USD is still the global reserve currency. And who governs the strength or weakness of the dollar? Yours truly, JPOW and co. Crypto currency prices are absolutely without question tied to the broader markets and the U.S. dollar. Therefore, we MUST consider how our crypto lead dawg will respond to JPOW's rate decision. With that said, here's what I see in the cards for ole' BTC. Let's start with the worst-case scenario: JPOW rug pulls the market with an enormous 75 pt hike or more - we drop below our strong and very critical 37550 support, somewhere in the purple JPOW does the expected 50 point hike & either speaks to another 50 pts hike soon or insinuates such action - we remain below our multi-year resistance level and move sideways-ish, somewhere in the red JPOW does the expected 50 point hike & either speaks to another 25 pt hike soon or insinuates softer action going forward - we either remain red or it is possible we go yellow again JPOW only bumps it 25! - Rocket fuel! It's moon time again! Green area. 🚀🚀🚀 Watch closely, everything (and I mean EVERYTHING) hinges upon the FED today! Press release 2:30 EST (I believe). Best to you all, -Stewdam.us
INDEX:BTCUSD
by stewdamus
2
Prediction of 4 Scenarios from Fed's decision on BTC From what I've managed to gather, 7 out of 9 governors vote for a +50bp hike; 8 out of 9 are in favor of reducing B/S. If the news to be released in 3.5 hours comes out with reducing balance sheet, which is likely to take effect in June, then highly likely we’ll see a black swan. +50bp is within expectation, but it’s still negative to the market. We can expect a pull back in 1-3 days but it’s not strong enough to reverse as liquidity is under the pressure of flowing out… Welcome your comment and ideas. Viva la Bitcoin. Safe trading, frens.
by BitMidas
2
India VIXWith FOMC outcome due tonight, volatility is increasing sharply (pre-event uncertainty) We are in the dark as to what FED will do tonight - so many possibilities, add to that statement - hawkish or dovish 25 bps market will rally 50 bps appears discounted 75 bps market will panic Hence better to stay light Above 21.75 the crucial resistance is at 2.80 if that breaches then be prepared for extreme moves (we have just seen the trailer in that case) all the way till 28 This would be mean large intra-day candles & gap openings. Avoid writing PE during such time unless well hedged. Also reduce derivative exposure its not worth it during such times. Post event wait for VIX to start cooling down, trend direction will become clear by then
NSE:INDIAVIX
by Dinesh_C_Nagpal
EURUSD Outlook for May 2022...My analysis for EURUSD on the monthly timeframe. Includes some simple fundamental perspective but if you want to discuss fundamentals in depth feel free to comment below. Aside from that, there's not much the dollar can do to beat anticipations unless liquidity of the dollar really tightens. In that scenario, the dollar will really strengthen and we could see parity, but I don't think the Fed will tolerate that or even risk the possibility. It's more of a possibility that something breaks in the U.S. economy, which is the case when every recession has happened in the U.S., so it would be sudden. Aside from that the Euro is moving well economically too, maybe a little less enthusiasm towards it than the dollar and more of a risk to it's bullish scenario comes from Russia, energy and slowdown in the EU as a result of sanctions and high prices. Either way, technicals on the lower timeframes to follow...
by UnknownUnicorn15362357
The Euro Is Heading for Parity Against the DollarThe US dollar and the euro are the world’s reserve currencies. Political and economic stability and free convertibility are the requirements for reserve currency status. Central banks and governments worldwide gold the US and European currencies as reserve assets. The exchange rate between the US dollar and the euro is multifactorial. Interest rate differentials, political trends, and other issues determine the value of each foreign exchange instrument versus the other. The euro has been around since January 1, 1999, and euro notes and coins were only available two decades ago, in 2002. The euro currency opened for trading in the futures market in April 2001 at an exchange rate of $0.8760 versus the US dollar. The euro first rose above parity with the US currency in July 2002. The last time it was below was in December 2002, but the recent exchange rate price action and the factors determining currency values could send the euro back to levels not seen in two decades. New highs in the dollar index- Approaching the test of the 2020 high The US dollar index has a 57.6% exposure to the euro currency. Since January 2021, the dollar index has been on a bullish path, making higher lows and higher highs. As the chart highlights, the dollar index futures contract moved from a low of 89.165 in early January 2021 to the most recent high of 103.950 on April 28, 2022, a 16.6% rise. The index is approaching a critical technical resistance level. The long-term chart shows the upside target stands at the March 2020 103.960 high, the highest level for the index since 2022. A break above that level will make the next upside target the July 2001 121.290 high. A move towards that level would push the euro below parity against the US dollar for the first time in two decades. Lower lows in the euro versus the US dollar foreign exchange relationship A bearish trend in the euro versus the US dollar currency relationship is nothing new. The chart shows the euro reached an all-time high against the dollar in July 2008 at $1.6038. Since then, it has been all downhill for the European currency. The euro reached a low of $1.03405 in January 2017. After a recovery took the euro to above the $1.25 level in February 2018, the downtrend resumed, and it was approaching the early 2017 low on April 29 at below the $1.075272 level. A move below the $1.03405 level makes the target the critical psychological parity level. Herding cats- The European economic challenge The European Union is a collection of countries with diverse cultures. Moreover, economic policy is a blend of different orientations to monetary and fiscal policies. Southern Europe has depended on tourism and has had a far looser approach to economic management than the austerity of the north. The north has been the industrial powerhouse, providing financial stability for the Union. Greece, Italy, Spain, and Portugal are far different economies than Germany, France, the Netherlands, and Belgium. Policy agreement between the Union members has been like herding feral cats over the past two decades. The north has bailed out the south routinely, causing stress on relationships within the Union and pressure on the euro currency. Cultural differences have been the borders since the establishment of the European Union and continue to be a factor that impacts the euro’s value. War on the border- An aggressive Russia is bad news for the euro In early 2022, the European Union is facing its most challenging test since its birth. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine launched the first major war in Europe since WW II. Russian aggression is a challenge to NATO countries, particularly those bordering the former Soviet Empire. Over the coming years, European military budgets will need to dramatically increase to provide safety and deterrence against the Russian aggressor. As military spending rises, it is likely to pressure the euro currency as the Union faces new threats that transcend the costs of the cultural divide between the northern and southern countries. The threat will likely unify the north and south, but the price tag for unification will be staggering. Rising US rates are another nail in the euro’s coffin- Parity is only the first stop – The trend is your friend In currencies, exchange rates are highly sensitive to interest rate differentials. The US dollar and euro are the world’s reserve currencies. The US central bank has shifted its monetary policy path to a more hawkish approach with inflation. raging. The March consumer and producer price indices rose by 8.5% and 11.2%, respectively. The US Fed ended its quantitative easing in March 2022 and will quickly shift to quantitative tightening, allowing debt securities to roll off its swollen balance sheet at maturities. The FOMC will increase the short-term Fed Funds rate by at least 50 basis points at this week’s May 4 meeting. US short-term interest rates are going nowhere but higher. Meanwhile, the US 30-Year Treasury bond futures have been a falling knife, pushing interest rates higher further out along the yield curve. The chart shows the decline in the long bond futures since the March 2020 high. The most recent 138-14 low on April 20, 2021, took the bellwether government bond futures to the lowest level since November 2018. Critical technical support stands at the October 2018 136-16 low. Below there, the next target is the 2013 127-23 low. A falling bond market and higher interest rates make the dollar more attractive than the euro. Europe cannot afford to increase interest rates and keep pace with the US dollar interest hikes because of its economic and geopolitical landscapes. Therefore, the dollar’s bullish trend will likely continue over the coming weeks and months. Bull and bear markets rarely move in straight lines. Currency markets tend to experience far lower volatility than stocks, bonds, commodities, and other asset classes as governments manage price moves with intervention to provide stability. However, technical and fundamental factors support the path to parity for the dollar and euro currencies. In 2000, the euro reached $0.8901 against the dollar, the long-term technical target. A stronger dollar and weak euro will have significant ramifications for markets across all asset classes, but the currency markets are a mirage as they trade in a vacuum. A trip to the supermarket, gas pump, or purchasing any goods or services in dollars reveals that the US currency has lost substantial purchasing power over the past year. The dollar may be strong against the euro, and it looks set to continue the current path, but all fiat currencies are losing power. As one strategist said the dollar is “the cleanest shirt in the dirty laundry.” -- Trading advice given in this communication, if any, is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that we believe are reliable. The author does not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects the author’s good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice the author provides will result in profitable trades. There is risk of loss in all futures and options trading. Any investment involves substantial risks, including, but not limited to, pricing volatility , inadequate liquidity, and the potential complete loss of principal. This article does not in any way constitute an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any investment, security, or commodity discussed herein, or any security in any jurisdiction in which such an offer would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction.
ICEUS:DX1!
by Andy_Hecht
Potential Bearish Flag in Homebuilder ETFHomebuilders are among the worst-performing groups this year as interest rates increase. Now there could be a bearish continuation pattern in the iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF . ITB sank to a 52-week low around $57 one month ago, followed by a period of consolidation. The lows have inched higher during this time, creating a potential bearish flag. Second, notice the lower highs starting on April 21. These occurred near a falling trendline along the highs of January and March. Third, the eight-day exponential moving average (EMA) has remained below the 21-day EMA. That suggests the intermediate-term downtrend remains in effect. Finally, ITB has yet to reach potentially important support. The main level buyers may target could be closer to $51.50, the lows in September and October of 2020. TradeStation has, for decades, advanced the trading industry, providing access to stocks, options, futures and cryptocurrencies. See our Overview for more. Important Information TradeStation Securities, Inc., TradeStation Crypto, Inc., and TradeStation Technologies, Inc. are each wholly owned subsidiaries of TradeStation Group, Inc., all operating, and providing products and services, under the TradeStation brand and trademark. You Can Trade, Inc. is also a wholly owned subsidiary of TradeStation Group, Inc., operating under its own brand and trademarks. TradeStation Crypto, Inc. offers to self-directed investors and traders cryptocurrency brokerage services. It is neither licensed with the SEC or the CFTC nor is it a Member of NFA. When applying for, or purchasing, accounts, subscriptions, products, and services, it is important that you know which company you will be dealing with. Please click here for further important information explaining what this means. This content is for informational and educational purposes only. This is not a recommendation regarding any investment or investment strategy. Any opinions expressed herein are those of the author and do not represent the views or opinions of TradeStation or any of its affiliates. Investing involves risks. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is no guarantee of future performance or success. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss equal to or greater than your entire investment regardless of which asset class you trade (equities, options, futures, or digital assets); therefore, you should not invest or risk money that you cannot afford to lose. Before trading any asset class, first read the relevant risk disclosure statements on the Important Documents page, found here: www.tradestation.com .
CBOE:ITB
by TradeStation
Bitcoin Pivotal Week AheadBTC has followed a descending parallel channel since Nov 2021 ATH shedding >52% in late Jan to.$32.9k. Since the low, BTC rallied to a local high of $48k in late March before resuming the gradual mark-down. Currently sitting >40% from ATH @ $38.8k. Bitcoin Weekly Chart currently above 100 EMA while the 20 EMA has crossed below the 50. Previous FOMC in early March following 25 bps hike, the market rallies in the face of a "hawkish sounding" Federal Reserve... casting doubt on the seriousness of reining in rampant inflation that's achieved highest levels in >40 years w/ no sign of slowing. Critical juncture in price action, as BTC will likely put in a red daily candle Monday 5/2 and look for direction from the broader markets over May 3rd & 4th. Potential for market upswing following the Fed's decisions is possible and would fall in line with March market response to Fed's seemingly hollow words. The more like scenario is market realization that inflation is problematic and Fed's efforts to reduce central bank balance sheets via quantitative tightening has teeth and will continue the gradual market corrections we've seen in Q1. Macro factors are indicating headwinds continue as GDP in Q1 was down, labor remains incredibly tight, prices remain unsustainably high. Bitcoin likely to creep down to $35k range as the market considers Fed actions and decides on a direction.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by R0MM3LL
US 10Y Yield Nearing 3%I believe that watching the US10Y is a great way to gauge what's happening in the equity markets. As we've been witnessing, stock valuations are being compressed and investors are feeling the pain. I've been watching this chart for a while, and you can see that the 10-year Treasury yield is nearly at 3% and is at 4-year highs. This is something to definitely keep an eye on as we continue to see a hawkish fed. We could see a change in dynamic within the secular trend of the market if this scenario continues in this trajectory.
TVC:US10Y
by ZenitCrypto
Backtesting the FOMC meetings: are the rate hikes priced in?I’m going to profit off of the fact that next Tuesday (May 3rd) the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) main meeting will take place to backtest how this event affects the markets (focusing on Bitcoin but in the end all the markets are connected). Firstly, I’m going to talk about what I expect Jerome Powell to say in the upcoming meeting, and then I’ll explain how they affect price. Lastly, I’ll estimate some technical targets. Meeting expectations So briefly, the results of the last CPI were 7.5% year over year (YoY) inflation, not above nor below the expectations. The jobs report that came out on March 31st showed signs of rising wages and a decrease in unemployment. As these events are already priced in as they happened weeks ago, the approach I want to take on this data is that the Fed wants to keep their position, not too dovish but not too hawkish, as the expectations are being met. The thing that the Fed has looked more at is the current conflict in Ukraine, which affected supply chains but, surprisingly, didn’t reduce consumer demand. And this means that they will have to start being more aggressive on the next rate hikes, announcing 50 basis points (bps) in the next two meetings. Regarding this unpredictable situation, if they keep the same position (which I see likely), they would want to return to 25 bps hikes as soon as they can. The market reaction With all that said, the Fed is likely to maintain their ideas, so I’ll dive into the backtesting part of the article. If we take the distance between every meeting since January 2021 and the next swing high/low (in percentages), and do an average excluding the outliers, we get around 8% move to the upside after every meeting. Note that this is usually driven by momentum, and the market reaction in the long-term may be totally different (as we see in November and December). However, the Fed has changed (and thus the market reactions) since they said inflation is no ‘longer’ transitory. The odds of a recession started to get higher and the fear kicked in. Then, in January, I think the price reacted positively as the Federal Reserve showed that they might not turn hawkish. And the same happened in the last meeting, when everyone feared the consequences of the war. Nothing can change now: we have a catalyst (the Fed announcing they’re going to hike 50 bps instead of 25), markets have trended down before the meeting and technical analysis, though especially on-chain analysis are still showing bullish signs. Targets based on technical analysis Before anything, I’m still confident we have to take the liquidity below $37k, which I expect to see at the start of the week, before the FOMC. Usually liquidity taking action implies that there is going to be a bounce just after the price is reached, so this makes percent sense if we add the volatility that there should be during the meeting. In the next few days after it, I’d expect at least the high Bitcoin has set a few days ago at $40.4k to be taken, which is a 10% upside from $37k (close to the average move since 2021). If we end up going higher I’d expect the fair value gap (or FVG) at $45k to fill, which would represent a 22% move (similar to the last two meetings). Lastly, I’d expect the SPY to move similarly and try to consolidate somewhere around $440 as most earnings haven’t been bad, with the only big exception being Amazon.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by config_json
Euro rebounds on strong GDP, inflation dataThe euro has bounced back on Friday with strong gains, ending a nasty 6-day losing streak. In the European session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0565, up 0.64% on the day. It has been a rough road for the euro, which hit a 5-year low this week as it broke below the 1.05 line. We're seeing a correction today, primarily due to solid GDP data out of Germany and the Eurozone. German GDP rose 4.0% in Q1 YoY, above the estimate of 3.8% and well ahead of the 1.8% gain in the Q4 of 2020. Eurozone GDP rose to 5.0% on an annualized basis, matching the forecast and above the prior release of 4.7%. The euro also received a boost as Eurozone CPI is expected to hit 7.5% YoY in April, up from 7.4%. Despite today's positive data, there are dark clouds on the horizon, which will more than likely send the euro back to its losing ways. France and Italy, the largest economies after Germany in the eurozone, both recorded negative growth of -0.2% QoQ in Q1, while Germany eked out a 0.2% gain. This points to the heavy toll that the Ukraine war has taken on the eurozone economies, and the war could certainly intensify, with Russia making a push in the eastern and southern parts of Ukraine. There is also uncertainty surrounding the sanctions against Russia. On the one hand, there is talk of the EU banning oil imports from Russia, which would badly hurt the Russian economy but also dampen growth in Western Europe. At the same time, there are reports that some major European energy companies have accepted Moscow's demands to pay for gas and oil in roubles. This could lead to a collision between the companies and European governments, which could turn into another headwind for the struggling euro. As if the euro doesn't have enough on its plate, the hawkish pivot by the Fed has widened the US/Europe rate differential and sent the euro tumbling in recent weeks. With the Fed poised to raise rates by 0.50% next week and further super-size rate hikes on the table, the euro appears on track to drop to 1.03, and parity has become a realistic possibility. 1.0553 is a weak support line. Below, there is support at 1.0411 There is resistance at 1.0657 and 1.0728
by OANDA
Graph Protocol Relief RallyNear-term long positions are attractive, with reassessment necessary as inflation reporting in April approaches. Bullish continuation will be more risky in the days leading up to CPI/PPI reporting. Following Bitcoin and the broader markets, GRT will realize near-term bullish support as the markets have shrugged of the Fed's 25 bps rate hike. GRT will flip 20 EMA into support, then push through 100 EMA... ultimately testing 200 EMA until next round of economic reporting. Sharply rising prices are elected to continue as there's been no substantive change to monetary policy, QE continues, corporations continue elevated pace of stock buybacks. Inflation results for March (CPI & PPI) will be published by BLS on 4/12 & 4/13 with high likelihood of further increases from the lagging reporting. April reports will be a pivotal as the FOMC will not meet until early May with the April inflation results published a week after the Fed meeting. Current expectation is shockingly higher inflation with the Fed's hand being forced, either accept persistent inflation and risk a wage-price spiral or adjust approach with more hawkish action and less reliance on hollow words. Maintaining status quo until midterm elections is likely to become untenable, recession risk is increasing.
BINANCE:GRTUSD
by R0MM3LL
NZ dollar drops to 22 month-lowThe misery continues for the New Zealand dollar, which is down almost 1% on Thursday. NZD/USD has fallen below the 0.65 level and has plunged 6.54% in the month of April. ANZ Business Confidence was unchanged in April, with a reading of -42.0. That means close to half of New Zealand businesses are pessimistic about the economic outlook over the next 12 months. The problems identified by businesses are nothing new, with shortages in materials and workers and inflation driving up costs. New Zealand inflation hit 6.9% in Q1, a 30-year high. In addition to the surge in inflation, businesses expect inflation to continue to rise - in April, inflation expectations rose to 5.9%, up from 5.5% in March. The upside risk in inflation expectations is a paramount concern for the RBNZ, which faces a massive battle in wrestling inflation to lower levels. Today's weak Business Confidence report will exacerbate those worries and will support aggressive rate tightening from the RBNZ in order to get a handle on spiralling inflation. A back-to-back hike of 0.50% at the May meeting is a strong possibility. Even with the RBNZ in aggressive mode, the US dollar continues to pummel its New Zealand counterpart. The Federal Reserve is poised to deliver another half-point hike at next week's meeting and has hinted at more oversize rate hikes in order to curb high inflation. US Treasury yields are moving higher, which is supporting the US dollar rally. Yields rose on Thursday, even though US GDP surprised with a contraction in Q1, the first negative growth recorded since the pandemic recession in 2020. NZD/USD has broken below the 0.6504 line. Next, there is support at 0.6381 There is resistance at 0.6569 and 0.6692
by OANDA
GBP/USD - Short Sell Fundamental and Technical Set Up UpdateThe Pound has extended its weakness against the U.S Dollar as the UK economy slips closer to a recession. The UK cost of living crisis, which is down to high energy prices, rising taxes, and now higher interest rates is increasing the public mortgage, credit cards, car loans, student debt and other debt payments, causing investors to question the amount of interest rate hikes the Bank of England can deliver without causing a recession. I break this down in more detail in the video.
Short
by KayansMarkets
1 trade, 2 probabilities !Hello all, I was expecting the sell off to continue - It did - but very briefly. ________________________ BTC - S&P 500 correlation : Btc was more bullish than SPX on the openning, the index have achieved Lower lows and BTC is on a bullish trend. Finally when the buying kicked off the index spiked and guess what ? BTC too ! Current situation : Currently we can see that BTC has been pumping all day since the european sesion till the end of the American session. It has continued with Asians too, well at least at the moment I'm writing these words. Speculation : I think that we might see a slightly bearish movement in a form of correction since we have broken a significant resistance/support line before continuing up (this direction is represented by the blue line). Despite this bullish movement. I strongly think that the macro-economic factor is going to heavily impact the markets when the federal reserve starts hiking those rates again ! The first hiking might occur on the debut of May so the rally might continue untill then ! Before that, and after reaching the yellow cercle we can see the first important correction where we will be retesting the bottom grey line (the movement represented by the red arrow) or just continuing up. The green arrow to me is very less probable but not impossible ! Decision making architecture : The thing that made me reverse today before taking my trading is the volume ! Not only BTC is pumping, but it is pumping with enough volume to give the trend credebility ! the S&P divergence and the volume made me go long. Oh yeah I forget and one more thing ! I don't short the bottoms ! If you appreciate the efforts, hit that agree button, thank you.
by Pleased_Owl
Bank of Canada hints at half-point hikeThe Canadian dollar has been on a nasty slide, falling around 2% since Thursday. There are no Canadian releases until GDP on Friday, which means that US releases during the week will have a significant impact on the movement of USD/CAD. Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem can usually be counted on for using clear and understandable language, which I'm always grateful for, as I vividly recall trying to decipher Alan Greenspan's Fedspeak years ago. Unlike Greenspan, Macklem wants the markets to actually understand what he's saying. The BoC delivered a 0.50% hike earlier this month, the largest increase in over 20 years. Macklem remains in hawkish mode and said on Monday that additional 0.50% increases were being considered. The markets expect the BoC to tighten at a fast pace - a 0.50% has been priced in for the June meeting, with a slight possibility of a massive 0.75% hike. The primary driver for the BoC's aggressive stance is, of, course, the surge in inflation. The BoC is committed to wrestling inflation down from its highest level in 30 years, with the challenge of raising rates enough to curb inflation without bringing the economy to a screeching halt. The BoC is also keeping an eye on what's happening down south with the Federal Reserve. With the US also grappling with soaring inflation, the Fed may deliver 0.50% hikes as well, and this will likely propel the US dollar higher. The BoC doesn't want to see the Canadian dollar get pummelled and with rates set to go as high as 3% by year's end, the BoC should be able to keep in sync with the Fed, which will help the Canadian currency keep pace with the US dollar. With the BoC aggressively raising rates and oil prices around the 100-dollar mark, the outlook for the Canadian dollar is positive. USD/CAD has support at 1.2632 and 1.2537 There is resistance at 1.2804 and 1.2899
by OANDA
Timing is everything! While the general direction for the US Fed and the ECB are similar, their timelines differ greatly! On the US Fed (USD) front, we are days away from the next FOMC meeting (4th May 2022) where market participants are expecting a 50 bps hike. On the ECB (EUR) front, the ECB is expected to taper its asset purchase program by early Q3, before it will consider any rate hikes. The difference in timelines of the Fed and ECB could provide some interesting hints on where the EURUSD is heading in the short term. With the Dollar being the first mover here, we expect strength in the dollar to drive the EURUSD lower over the short term before the ECB firms up its hike schedule. The EURUSD pair is also trading just below the 7- year support level. Zooming in on a shorter timeframe, we also spot a breakout and retest at this level, suggesting the move has begun. Entry at 1.08070, stop above 1.12080. Targets are 1.06760 and 1.03835. Disclaimer: The contents in this Idea are intended for information purpose only and do not constitute investment recommendation or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios.
CME:6E1!Short
by inspirante