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Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis For April 1, 2022Technical Analysis and Outlook: Since Friday, March 25, Bitcoin's Inner Coin Rally $48,000 and Key Res $47,900 were completed, as shown on Daily Chart Analysis For March 25. The retest of the obsoleted Key Res $44,400 is a very low probability however is alive and well. The push to retest the completed Inner Coin Rally at $48,000 and Key Res at $47,900 and move substantially higher to the next Inner Coin Rally at $54,000 is in the cards.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradeSelecter
4
Cup and handle forming on GLD! Time again to keep an eye on the price of GLD! There are many factors that come into play with the price of gold. Our outlook remains bullish here technically and fundamentally. With the Fed having printed TRILLIONS over the last couple of years due to the pandemic they have drastically increased the supply of the dollar. This act has of course contributed to the inflation numbers we have been seeing over the last couple of months. With the value of the dollar decreasing, we've seen drastic increases of value in multiple commodities such as lumber, nickel, copper, oil, natural gas...etc. As we see the dollar decrease further an inflation to continue higher it is only a matter of time before real money (Gold) starts to become the center of attention. The headwinds against this in the short term is the Fed's decision to taper the purchase of bond assets so they can increase interest rates to "fight" inflation. The only problem with this is that we don't believe the Federal Reserve will really commit to fighting inflation via rising rates. Consensus for 2022 rate hikes at the moment is sitting around 4. This would likely put rates at around 1% by the end of 2022. If we include 2023 projections, we'll be looking at rates around 2% in 2 years (maybe 3% with more aggressive estimates). This flat out won't be enough to fight the inflation numbers that we're seeing. Now if the Fed DOES decide to actively fight inflation and increase rates to upwards of 7% to fight this inflation, they will stunt economic growth and send markets spiraling downwards. We simply don't see the current regime at the Fed willing to do this. The only choice we have is to live with the current inflation for years and years to come.
AMEX:GLDLong
by ThirtyninethParallelInvestment
Russell 2000 Futures -20% More$RTY1! lost 50 EMA support and racing to 100 EMA quickly on weekly, looks even uglier on daily as the pullback looks to be gaining momentum. Next level of interest would be another -20% decline. Last time this severe of a retreat was realized was March to May of 2020. The recovery was rapid given unprecedented amount of federal stimulus to prop the economy up. Stimulus is not an option in the face of sharply rising prices with persistent inflation starting to rip across all sectors. Markets shrugged off initial Fed communications and FOMC 25 bps rate hike, clearly reflecting lack of belief in Central Banks' conviction. More volatility ahead as recession lurks in the wings and stagflation appears likely without regime change.
CME_MINI:RTY1!Short
by R0MM3LL
Will sanctions on Russia backfire on the U.S.? What about crypto- Sanctions, led by the U.S. in hopes of punishing Russian aggression may NOT have the impact the U.S. is hoping for? Could they actually backfire? - Saudi Arabia rejects Biden's request for talks on increasing oil production and instead announces that they are considering accepting Yuan instead of dollars for Chinese Oil sales (per house rules, links to sources are not allowed) - India's move to "explore" alternative payment channels with Russia to avoid sanctions (per house rules, links to sources are not allowed) - With official inflation numbers running at 8% and climbing the Federal Reserve is being forced to raise interest rates for the first time since 2018 (per house rules, links to sources are not allowed). Multiple rate hikes are projected. The last time rates were raised markets crashed and the Fed quickly reversed course. This leads many to say that the Fed won't really raise rates as much as projected, because the market won't let them, but what these people don't seem to get is that in order to finance the U.S. national debt, new debt has to be sold every year. As inflation rises countries like Saudi Arabia become more and more inclined to invest in assets that show a return or at least hold their value. This means that unless you raise the rates to a level that offsets inflation many investors will move elsewhere and you won't be able to take on new debt. Central banks are cornered. Once they start raising rates government budgets will quickly hit a wall as interest payments on existing debt become unmanageable. - This may devastate the dollar along with the U.S. economy, but it may be great for crypto
INDEX:BTCUSD
by stewdamus
Bitcoin Bullish Reversal Post FOMCTraditional markets responded with rallies following the Federal Reserve's tame communication following the FOMC meeting this week. The 25 bps hike is nothing more than a symbolic statement, with the midterm elections looming and the Fed finally acknowledging that inflation is more persistent than what they had hoped. The lack of serious action is likely to result in a reversal to near-term bullish action while inflation continues unchecked. The next few months of "business as usual" are likely to support more upward prices, with CPI & PPI continuing to climb. With the Fed's dovish stance and inflation soaring, there will be a significant amount of attention on what steps to take. The real question is: can the economy support rampant inflation until midterm elections in November?
INDEX:BTCUSD
by R0MM3LL
Rampant Inflation Impacting Producer Price IndexWall Street over the past few weeks appeared to be preparing for a more hawkish Federal Reserve approach to tamp down on sharply rising prices. The FOMC did raise rates by 25 bps, and the markets promptly responded by going higher. The markets' responses indicate the Fed completely lacks credibility in doing anything to get prices under control... instead the Central Banks have committed to stability and adopting a status quo approach in the near term. Rationale appears to be mid-term elections and a desire to not "upset" the markets given tremendous uncertainty. Instead of taking responsible action, it appears that inflation will continue drive higher, and a simple trend reflects PPI raising at least 4% as midterm elections draw closer. Short-term, markets will continue to behave bullish, inflation will continue to rise, and the depth of a total market correction will be deeper the longer this continues. Unfortunately, it's apparent that a regime change will be necessary at the Fed... likely resulting from rampant inflation and a landslide Republican win at the polls. High probability the GOP will have control of both chambers of Congress going into 2023.
FRED:PPIACOLong
by R0MM3LL
Stocks Blast Off After FOMC!!Stocks have rallied after the first rate hike in three years by the Federal Reserve. Novice traders might surmise that stocks would collapse off this news, however dedicated readers here should have been prepared. We called this rally days ago. Why? The rate hikes have been priced in months ago and we are seeing a 'relief rally' which follows with more clarity on monetary policy.We pivoted from 4144 and shot up through multiple levels to break highs at 4327. When the decision came we saw a brief pullback then a subsequent rip to even higher leves (A friend bought at 4261 and crushed it, cheers MJ!!). From here we can expect either ranging or higher prices, but will likely see resistance at 4421. We must break this level to see anything higher. Currently, we are seeing a brief pullback to 4327, where we should find support. If we retrace further 4293 should provide further support.
FX:SPX500Long
by quantguy
NZD extends gains ahead of GDP, Fed raises ratesThe New Zealand dollar has extended its gains for a second straight day. NZD/USD is trading just above the 0.68 line in the North American session. As expected, the Federal Reserve raised rates for the first time since 2018. Fed Chair Powell said he expects inflation to start to ease and that the Fed had a plan to raise rates during the course of the year. Today's lift-off is just the start of a rate-tightening cycle, but it remains unclear just how fast a pace the Fed will take towards normalization. The markets have priced in six rate hikes during the year, but this projection may have to be scaled back due to the tremendous turbulence in the financial markets. The war in Ukraine has injected plenty of volatility into the financial markets. We've seen risk apprehension subside when there has been talk of a ceasefire, only to rise back up when the fighting continued. Today's reports are more encouraging, with the warring sides apparently working on a detailed plan to end the fighting, which would include Ukraine declaring neutrality. An announcement of a ceasefire would raise risk appetite and likely give a boost to the New Zealand dollar. New Zealand releases GDP for Q1 later today, with a gain of 3.2% YoY expected. This follows a dismal third quarter, which saw the economy, which was hampered by Covid restrictions contract by 3.2%. A strong gain could extend the New Zealand dollar's current upswing. NZD/USD has support at 0.6763 and 6716 There is resistance at 0.6893 and 0.6974
by OANDA
2
sp500 looking for a path back to 4300Potential bounce from D leg, could carry over to a bigger bounce to the Bigger B leg at 4300. Sp500 will look to regain levels before Fridays sell off. I expect side way action and a slow and steady rise into Wed Meeting. Any rate hike less than .50 the market sells off to 3800 level. We also could get more bad news from the emerging markets in which im short. 4150 was my target for D leg and bounce. (not trading or financial advice)
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by moneyflow_trader
Is the US Federal Reserve hiking 25 basis points tomorrow?The US Federal Reserve kicked off its Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on Tuesday, with the markets widely anticipating a 25 basis-point hike in what would be the first interest rate increase since 2018. Fed Chair Jerome Powell had earlier raised the prospect of a 25bp hike, telling a House financial services committee hearing two weeks ago that he is "inclined to propose and support” the increase as inflation has sat above 2% and as the United States’ labor market continued to recover. High inflation underscores need for tightening With the US consumer inflation soaring to a 40-year high of 7.9% in February, a rate hike this week is highly anticipated, although uncertainty lies in how much the Fed will have to tighten to tame inflation. Markets are also pricing in up to six or seven hikes this year, one for each of the upcoming FOMC meetings. Higher inflation expectations among US consumers, according to surveys by the New York Fed and Cleveland Fed, also ramp up the likelihood of a more hawkish Fed. 50bp hike also on the table Although many market watchers anticipate a 25bp hike when the Fed caps off its meeting on Thursday, some economists say a 50bp is also likely. Last month, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard called for a full percentage-point hike by July 1. ING Bank’s Chief International Economist James Knightley in a note last week said it wouldn’t be surprising “to see maybe two FOMC members vote for 50bp.” Knightley and other economists from the Dutch bank most recently said markets are back to pricing 160bp hikes in six meetings in total for 2022, although the Fed may have five rate hikes planned for the year. Russia-Ukraine war places Fed in a precarious spot However, the worsening conflict between Russia and Ukraine, which has reached its third week, puts the Fed on alert due to expectations that the war could worsen inflation and result in a potential global economic recession that could derail the United States’ recovery momentum. Still, the Fed appeared to be undeterred by the crisis, with Powell saying in a recent speech to Congress that the near-term effects of the war and Western sanctions on Russia remain highly uncertain. "Making appropriate monetary policy in this environment requires a recognition that the economy evolves in unexpected ways. We will need to be nimble in responding to incoming data and the evolving outlook,” Powell said. Squeezing household income A rate hike in the US — the first since the COVID-19 pandemic emerged — could further squeeze household income at a time when gas prices hover around record highs. Gasoline prices in the US surged to an all-time high of $4.33 on Friday, before retreating over the weekend, according to data from the American Automobile Association. Higher interest rates will raise borrowing costs in banks, lifting variable rates on credit card debt and affecting interests on auto loans and mortgages. This could further weigh on consumer’s spending habits.
by BlackBull_Markets
Bitcoin Assumptions Gone WildToday's Presidential Executive Order did not mention Bitcoin by name once. Instead it focused on "digital asset technologies" and CBDC's. The White House Talking Points also failed to reference cryptocurrency as as the focus of the order, instead including crypto in the discussion as being outside of regulatory framework and as part of illicit activities. Bitcoin maxis and crypto evangelists make extreme projections, relying on assumptions as fact. When discussion or critical thought is entertained, an abundance of fallacies (straw man, red herring, slippery slope) and biases (experiential, confirmation, reinforced through echo chambers) get piled on. Since Bitcoin's inception, the economic environment has been supported by a dovish Federal Reserve and Central Banks, with unfettered money supply driving risk-on speculative investing. This unsustainable monetary policy has resulted in extreme price spikes and inflation not realized in over 40 years. Nascent markets lack regulatory frameworks and are more volatile given low market capitalization. Assumptions including replacing gold as a safe haven store of value as well as a belief that decentralization will succeed in the face of traditional finance and government driven efforts to maintain status quo are rampant. Financial controls are now being weaponized against Russia for invading Ukraine in a way that has never been seen before. The second and third order effects of Nation States and entities realizing the vulnerability are unfathomable at this point in time. Power exists not only in the centralized environment, but also in controlling access to decentralized platforms via Internet Service Providers and fiat on/off ramps. Governments have the ability to declare threats to national security as illegal and have ways to attack these threats directly and more importantly indirectly. When all is said and done, we have gravitated from critical thought and open dialogue to communication via headlines and memes. At the end of the day, Bitcoin and the broader crypto community will either find a way to coexist and complement existing order or be relegated to a niche that doesn't gain widespread support or use because of difficulties imposed by those seeking to retain centralized control.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by R0MM3LL
👀 S&P500 - Inflation vs Fed.Reserve. 1D chart. ObservationsHello everyone! Today is a big day. Fed Reserve is going to make decision about rate hike. And whats todays structure on SP500? 1. We saw how we lose demand line of the big channel in January. We stopped at 4200. 2. Tried to rally. Result - inability to return into channel. That is bearish 3. Then we rallied down, made LL. 4. After that all bulls tryouts have been declined despite of good demand came in, Result is bad. 5. Moreover, We want to admit that we havent seen good result (price action: momentum, big spreads) from bears yet too. At the moment we try to go lower and it seems like all demand that came in during that 2 month in this trading range have been absorbed... Thank you for reading. What are your thoughts? Write it down in comment section.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by JustCharts