Get started

Federalreserve

sp500 looking for a path back to 4300Potential bounce from D leg, could carry over to a bigger bounce to the Bigger B leg at 4300. Sp500 will look to regain levels before Fridays sell off. I expect side way action and a slow and steady rise into Wed Meeting. Any rate hike less than .50 the market sells off to 3800 level. We also could get more bad news from the emerging markets in which im short. 4150 was my target for D leg and bounce. (not trading or financial advice)
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by moneyflow_trader
Is the US Federal Reserve hiking 25 basis points tomorrow?The US Federal Reserve kicked off its Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on Tuesday, with the markets widely anticipating a 25 basis-point hike in what would be the first interest rate increase since 2018. Fed Chair Jerome Powell had earlier raised the prospect of a 25bp hike, telling a House financial services committee hearing two weeks ago that he is "inclined to propose and support” the increase as inflation has sat above 2% and as the United States’ labor market continued to recover. High inflation underscores need for tightening With the US consumer inflation soaring to a 40-year high of 7.9% in February, a rate hike this week is highly anticipated, although uncertainty lies in how much the Fed will have to tighten to tame inflation. Markets are also pricing in up to six or seven hikes this year, one for each of the upcoming FOMC meetings. Higher inflation expectations among US consumers, according to surveys by the New York Fed and Cleveland Fed, also ramp up the likelihood of a more hawkish Fed. 50bp hike also on the table Although many market watchers anticipate a 25bp hike when the Fed caps off its meeting on Thursday, some economists say a 50bp is also likely. Last month, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard called for a full percentage-point hike by July 1. ING Bank’s Chief International Economist James Knightley in a note last week said it wouldn’t be surprising “to see maybe two FOMC members vote for 50bp.” Knightley and other economists from the Dutch bank most recently said markets are back to pricing 160bp hikes in six meetings in total for 2022, although the Fed may have five rate hikes planned for the year. Russia-Ukraine war places Fed in a precarious spot However, the worsening conflict between Russia and Ukraine, which has reached its third week, puts the Fed on alert due to expectations that the war could worsen inflation and result in a potential global economic recession that could derail the United States’ recovery momentum. Still, the Fed appeared to be undeterred by the crisis, with Powell saying in a recent speech to Congress that the near-term effects of the war and Western sanctions on Russia remain highly uncertain. "Making appropriate monetary policy in this environment requires a recognition that the economy evolves in unexpected ways. We will need to be nimble in responding to incoming data and the evolving outlook,” Powell said. Squeezing household income A rate hike in the US — the first since the COVID-19 pandemic emerged — could further squeeze household income at a time when gas prices hover around record highs. Gasoline prices in the US surged to an all-time high of $4.33 on Friday, before retreating over the weekend, according to data from the American Automobile Association. Higher interest rates will raise borrowing costs in banks, lifting variable rates on credit card debt and affecting interests on auto loans and mortgages. This could further weigh on consumer’s spending habits.
by BlackBull_Markets
Bitcoin Assumptions Gone WildToday's Presidential Executive Order did not mention Bitcoin by name once. Instead it focused on "digital asset technologies" and CBDC's. The White House Talking Points also failed to reference cryptocurrency as as the focus of the order, instead including crypto in the discussion as being outside of regulatory framework and as part of illicit activities. Bitcoin maxis and crypto evangelists make extreme projections, relying on assumptions as fact. When discussion or critical thought is entertained, an abundance of fallacies (straw man, red herring, slippery slope) and biases (experiential, confirmation, reinforced through echo chambers) get piled on. Since Bitcoin's inception, the economic environment has been supported by a dovish Federal Reserve and Central Banks, with unfettered money supply driving risk-on speculative investing. This unsustainable monetary policy has resulted in extreme price spikes and inflation not realized in over 40 years. Nascent markets lack regulatory frameworks and are more volatile given low market capitalization. Assumptions including replacing gold as a safe haven store of value as well as a belief that decentralization will succeed in the face of traditional finance and government driven efforts to maintain status quo are rampant. Financial controls are now being weaponized against Russia for invading Ukraine in a way that has never been seen before. The second and third order effects of Nation States and entities realizing the vulnerability are unfathomable at this point in time. Power exists not only in the centralized environment, but also in controlling access to decentralized platforms via Internet Service Providers and fiat on/off ramps. Governments have the ability to declare threats to national security as illegal and have ways to attack these threats directly and more importantly indirectly. When all is said and done, we have gravitated from critical thought and open dialogue to communication via headlines and memes. At the end of the day, Bitcoin and the broader crypto community will either find a way to coexist and complement existing order or be relegated to a niche that doesn't gain widespread support or use because of difficulties imposed by those seeking to retain centralized control.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by R0MM3LL
👀 S&P500 - Inflation vs Fed.Reserve. 1D chart. ObservationsHello everyone! Today is a big day. Fed Reserve is going to make decision about rate hike. And whats todays structure on SP500? 1. We saw how we lose demand line of the big channel in January. We stopped at 4200. 2. Tried to rally. Result - inability to return into channel. That is bearish 3. Then we rallied down, made LL. 4. After that all bulls tryouts have been declined despite of good demand came in, Result is bad. 5. Moreover, We want to admit that we havent seen good result (price action: momentum, big spreads) from bears yet too. At the moment we try to go lower and it seems like all demand that came in during that 2 month in this trading range have been absorbed... Thank you for reading. What are your thoughts? Write it down in comment section.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by JustCharts
$US10Y Breaking Out OF 40 Year TrendHistorically, in the absence of QE (Quantitative Easing), the US10Y (US 10 Year Treasury Bon) exceeds inflation. This means that bond yields must rise to exceed inflation for non-Federal Reserve buyers to enter the market place. Non-Government buyers will not buy a bond below inflation as their real returns would be negative. A SIGNIFICANT CONCERNS/CONSIDERATIONS: How The Fed May Reduce The Balance Sheet: - If they flood the market, we could see a squeeze on the bond market as the FED represented 2/3 of the bond market prior to ending their aggressive purchasing of bonds last week. How The New "Standing Repo Facility (S.R.F)" Will Effect The Bond Market: - Unclear, as it is untested in this Quantitative Tightening (QT) climate. - The premise is that the S.R.F is a tool that FED now has to avoid what happened in 2019. The goal is to help prevent a spike in bond yields. Explanation from Federal reserve website: www.federalreserve.gov "When the Federal Reserve conducts an overnight repo, it buys a security from an eligible counterparty and simultaneously agrees to sell the security back the next day. The difference between the purchase price and the sale price of the securities implies a rate of interest earned by the Federal Reserve on the transaction. The FOMC sets the S.R.F minimum bid rate, which is the minimum interest rate the Federal Reserve is willing to receive in an S.R.F operation; if the amount of bids exceeds the operation limit, the actual interest rate that a counterparty pays is determined through an auction process. The securities accepted in S.R.F operations include Treasury securities, agency debt securities, and agency mortgage backed securities."
TVC:US10YLong
by VakninAnalytics
3
Japanese yen falls to five-year highThe US dollar continues to pummel the Japanese yen. USD/JPY pushed above the 117 line earlier today for the first time since January 2017. USD/JPY is up 0.61% on the day and has recorded a massive gain of 1.76% this week. We continue to see sharp volatility in the currency markets and the Japanese yen has not been immune to the turbulence. Risk apprehension has been fluctuating, depending on developments in the Ukraine crisis. Like the US dollar, the yen is also considered a safe-haven currency, but with the US economy in much better shape than that of Japan, the US dollar has been the big winner from the recent turbulence we're seeing in the markets. As well, commodities are priced in US dollars, so the recent surge in commodity prices has boosted the US dollar. If the Ukraine crisis worsens and commodity prices continue to soar, it is entirely feasible that the USD/JPY will continue its upswing and break above the 120 line. In the US, headline CPI continued to accelerate, with a gain of 7.9% for February YoY. This matched the forecast and was up from 7.5% beforehand. With inflation running at 40-year high, there's little doubt that the Fed will raise rates at next week's meeting, most likely by 25 basis points. Japan ended the week with mixed numbers. Household Spending for January showed a sharp rebound of 6.9% YoY, up from -0.2% in December and above the consensus of 3.3%. However, the BSI Manufacturing Index for Q1 came in at -7.6, down from +7.2 in Q3 and way off the consensus estimate of +8.2. The BoJ is expected to maintain a dovish stance, despite rising inflation. On Friday, a senior BoJ official stated Japan's current and economic price conditions would make it inappropriate to respond with monetary tightening. USD/JPY continues to climb and break above resistance lines. Earlier in the day, the pair broke above resistance at 116.27 and 116.72. The next resistance is at 117.33. There is support at 115.56 and 115.11
by OANDA
2
How the Fed's Rate Hikes Affect the Market (or Not)In this post, I'll be demonstrating how the Fed's rate hikes affect the equity market (or how they don't), through historical examples and analyses of market psychology. This is an issue that has been going on for a while, and one that has caught the attention of all market participants. Yes, tapering and rate hikes aren’t necessarily good news, but I don’t think that 1) they necessarily indicate the beginning of a bear market/recession, and 2) the Fed is as powerful and influential as we think they are. This is not financial advice. This is for educational purposes only. Introduction - There’s a myth, a misconception in the market that the Fed allegedly rescues falling markets with rate cuts and easing measures, and vice versa for when the market is overheated. - This myth began in 1987 during Black Monday, when Alan Greenspan’s Fed cut rates after the crash, creating an impression that the Fed was directly responding to the stock market. - This is when the (mis)belief that the Fed would put a floor under a a falling market stuck. - Nevertheless, if we analyze the data, it actually demonstrates that the Fed stood pat for most corrections, and cutting cycles typically arrive during bear markets, just as coincidence. Historical Cases - There are only two occasions in history where the Fed’s cutting cycles corresponded with market lowpoints. - The first is the aforementioned Black Monday of 1987, and even for this case. - If we take a look at the situation back then, it’s not so much that the Fed made international moves that contributed to history, but rather that the bear market started amid a global liquidity crisis. - With excess liquidity, the rates should have been flat, or down, but that wasn’t the case. - Thus, the Fed’s rate cuts were vital to unfreezing credit and ensuring banks and clearing houses would have access to liquidity they needed, while the market was under severe stress. - The second occasion was the rate cut in 1998, when stocks were reacting to the collapse of Long-Term Capital Management (LTCM). - There was fear in the market that this collapse would lead to a domino effect, ending in a banking meltdown. - Generally, when people fear a banking contagion, liquidity in interbank funding markets dry up. - The Fed’s action to cut rates during this time helped keep money moving, and ensured that banks met their regulatory obligations. Market Psychology - In order to understand the recent discussion revolving around the importance of the Fed’s actions, we need to understand human nature. - People love finding narrative threads and grand explanations because we’re biologically wired to make sense of the world that way. - They confuse correlation and causation, and zero in on evidence that supports their view and shuns whatever suggests otherwise. - But it’s important to remember that in most cases, a fact that everyone knows, tends to be closer to myth than reality, and even if it weren’t a myth, the fact that everyone knows it does not give us an edge in the market. Summary Market shocks are caused by surprises. News about a pandemic or cyber attack that catches investors off guard is much riskier than macro events that are predictable and can be anticipated. Given that the markets are efficient (which I believe they are), it's rational to assume that news about the Fed's rate hikes, and people reaction to it are already priced in. While short term volatility is definitely expected, I believe that the likelihood of this event becoming a trigger for a multi-year recession is extremely unlikely. If you like this educational post, please make sure to like, and follow for more quality content! If you have any questions or comments, feel free to comment below! :)
TVC:IXICEducation
by Michael_Wang_Official
61
Pound falls, US inflation jumpsGBP/USD has reversed directions on Thursday, giving up most of the gains from a day earlier. In the North American, session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.3132, down 0.41% on the day. In the US, headline CPI continued to accelerate, with a gain of 7.9% for February YoY. This matched the forecast and was up from 7.5% beforehand. With inflation running close to 8%, a rate hike is a virtual given at next week's Federal Reserve meeting. What happens after that is less clear, as the Fed has to worry about stagflation, given the massive upswing in oil prices. The markets had priced in six rate hikes this year, but the turbulence due to the Ukraine crisis and the staggering rise in oil prices will translate into the Fed being more cautious about future rate hikes. Earlier today, a meeting between the foreign ministers of Russia and Ukraine earlier today did not result in any breakthroughs, although the sides agreed to continue to meet. The fighting continues, and with the Russian invasion force appearing to have stalled, there are fears that Russian President Putin could double down in frustration and hit more civilian targets. This would exacerbate the massive humanitarian crisis due to the Russian invasion, which has already affected millions of Ukrainians. The markets will be treated to a data dump from the UK on Friday. The highlights include the January reports for GDP and Manufacturing Production. GDP is expected to jump 9.3% YoY, following a 6.5% gain in December. Manufacturing Production is forecast to accelerate to 3.1%, compared to 1.3% beforehand. Strong readings would be further indication that the UK economy continues to improve, with the next BoE rate meeting just a week away. GBP/USD has broken through support at 1.3146. Below, there is support at 1.3057 There is resistance at 1.3249 and 1.3380
by OANDA
1
Sterling moves higher as dollar dipsThe British pound is in positive territory, as the US dollar has retreated against the major currencies for the first time in five days. GBP/USD is trading at 1.3169 in the North American session, up 0.52% on the day. The US dollar has had its way with the pound in recent sessions, but GBP/USD has reversed directions today. We are seeing a buy-the-dip move, which has boosted equities and led to a US bond selloff, with yields falling. The dollar index has fallen sharply to 98.02, down 1.02% and the US dollar outlook is suddenly not looking so bullish. Market direction has been shaped to a great extent by the crisis in Ukraine and the markets continue to react as developments unfold. On Thursday, the foreign ministers of Russia and Ukraine are scheduled to meet in Turkey, and if progress is made towards a ceasefire in the fighting, risk appetite would find some traction and we could see a rotation out of US dollars. Conversely, if the talks collapse and Russia intensifies its attacks, the safe-haven dollar would become more attractive to investors. The Fed is poised to commence its rate lift-off at next week's meeting, likely by a quarter-point. What happens after that has become very unclear, with the extreme turbulence we are seeing. There is a full-blown war in Europe, commodity prices are soaring, and oil has rocketed above 120 dollars a barrel. This nasty recipe could lead to stagflation, which means that Fed policymakers will have to show an abundance of caution moving forward - we can expect a slower pace of rate hikes this year than had been anticipated just a few weeks ago. GBP/USD has broken through resistance at 1.3146. Above, there is resistance at 1.3291 There is support at 1.3057 and 1.2912
by yesfish
Can technical analysis infer the result of Fed Tightening?This chart uses a simple downtrend in order to predict the terminal fed funds rate, which I believe will be 150-175 basis points by March 2023. As we can see, the previous fed funds rate hikes under the current downtrend have resulted in periods of lower GDP growth as well as yield-curve inversions and very regularly precede lows in total US jobless claims (the two criteria for a slowdown to be considered a recession are two consecutive quarters of lower GDP growth as well as a trough in unemployment). Historically, sharp increases in oil prices have been consistent indicators of economic slowdowns and very rarely move to the upside with a significant degree of magnitude without preceding a recession or at least a period of stock-market volatility.
FRED:FEDFUNDS
by citrinityx
NZ dollar slips, mfg. sales nextThe New Zealand dollar has started the week in negative territory. NZD/USD is down 0.50%, and is trading at 0.6825 in the North American session. The currency enjoyed its best week since August 2021, with gains of 1.75%. The war in Europe has drained risk appetite, but the kiwi, although sensitive to risk, is also a commodity-based currency, and has moved higher on the wings of soaring commodity prices. New Zealand releases Manufacturing Sales for Q4 on Tuesday. After a weak Q3 release of -2.2%, a positive reading could give NZD/USD a boost. The war in Ukraine has understandably taken over the news, overshadowing the economic calendar. Still, investors are also keeping an eye on key releases, and among the most important are US nonfarm payrolls. The news was good on Friday, as February NFP outperformed with a strong showing. The economy created 678 thousand jobs in February, crushing the consensus of 400 thousand and above the January reading of 481 thousand. The unemployment rate fell to 3.8%, down from 4.0%. With workers in short supply, pressure on wages will continue, and the Fed is likely to respond with a cycle of rate hikes, starting in March. Inflation continues to accelerate, and there had been talk of the Fed taking a drastic measure and imposing a half-point rate hike. However, the war in Ukraine and the stunning rise in oil prices has led to central banks showing an abundance of caution in this turbulent economic landscape. The CME's FedWatch is projecting a 94% likelihood of a 25-basis point rise at the March meeting. This will mark the liftoff of a rate-tightening cycle, as the Fed moves toward normalization. The US releases CPI on Thursday, which is projected to hit 8%. A release within expectations will raise pressure on the Fed to align their timeline more closely with market expectations of six rate hikes this year. The Fed was slow to react to high inflation, and faces a real challenge in raising rates enough to bring inflation down to manageable levels without choking off the recovery. 0.6803 is a weak support line and could be tested during the day. Below, there is support at 0.6733 There is resistance at 0.6931 and 0.7000
by OANDA
$VIX - Consolidating Toward an Obvious CatalystLong before Putin rolled his tanks and 180k troops into the independent and democratic nation of Ukraine, there were rightful concerns about inflation and its effect on the US economy. The war in Eastern Europe has served as a convenient distraction for us while we laugh off Jerome Powell's 'transitory' inflation comments. There have been some indications that inflation was beginning to ease. Economists have largely argued that the economy is healthy- but the Fed was behind on hiking rates. This was put on the back burner as Putin makes grave errors in Ukraine. Now we are already sneaking up on CPI data release again. The fed chairs have been arguing back and forth between a .25 and .50 hike for over a month. Powell said just yesterday he is leaning toward .25 but left the door open to .50 if the data supports it. The last CPI was higher in the wrong direction - and the market didn't like it. Over the 12 months from January 2021 to January 2022, the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose 7.5 percent. This was the largest 12-month increase since the 12-month period ending February 1982. Food prices increased 7.0 percent over the past year, while energy prices rose 27.0 percent. Prices for food at home rose 7.4 percent over the last 12 months. All of the six major grocery store food groups increased over the period. By far the largest increase was that of meats, poultry, fish, and eggs, which rose 12.2 percent over the year. Prices for dairy and related products increased 3.1 percent, the smallest 12-month increase among in the food at home category. Prices for food away from home rose 6.4 percent over the last year, the largest 12-month increase since January 1982. Within the energy category, gasoline prices rose 40.0 percent over the last year, despite declining in January. Prices for natural gas rose 23.9 percent over the last 12 months, and prices for electricity rose 10.7 percent. Prices for all items less food and energy index rose 6.0 percent, the largest 12-month change since the period ending August 1982. Within this grouping, prices for shelter increased 4.4 percent over the past year, prices for medical care services were up 2.7 percent, and prices for transportation services increased 5.6 percent. So where does this leave us now? With a lot of questions and uncertainty. Which is what the market likes the least out of all things. The VIX has been making lower highs and higher lows for several days and the triangle above suggests a collision path right smack dab on March 10th. How will the war affect the consumer price index? This remains to be seen. One can assume only more supply chain disruptions and some added inflation in certain parts of the economy. A short reminder on what CPI is from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics: The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in prices paid by consumers for goods and services. The CPI reflects spending patterns for each of two population groups: all urban consumers and urban wage earners and clerical workers. The all urban consumer group represents about 93 percent of the total U.S. population. It is based on the expenditures of almost all residents of urban or metropolitan areas, including professionals, the self-employed, the poor, the unemployed, and retired people, as well as urban wage earners and clerical workers. Not included in the CPI are the spending patterns of people living in rural nonmetropolitan areas, farming families, people in the Armed Forces, and those in institutions, such as prisons and mental hospitals. Consumer inflation for all urban consumers is measured by two indexes, namely, the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) and the Chained Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (C-CPI-U)
TVC:VIX
by jaykenneyTRT
2
New Zealand dollar edges higherThe New Zealand dollar has posted small gains on Thursday, as NZD/USD has pushed above the 0.68 line in the North American session. New Zealand is hugely dependent on its export industry, and the Covid pandemic has taken its toll on exports, as global demand has fallen. However, with the worst of Covid hopefully behind us, global demand has picked up, which bodes well for New Zealand's economy. The ANZ Commodity Price Index climbed 3.9% in February, its strongest gain since March 2021. The war in Ukraine has intensified, with fierce fighting reported near Ukraine's major cities as the number of refugees fleeing from Ukraine has hit one million. Western countries has imposed severe sanctions on Moscow as relations between East and West have plummeted. Russian and Ukrainian officials will hold talks later today, which has raised risk sentiment and kept the New Zealand dollar in positive territory. NZD/USD has been on an impressive roll, posting four straight winning weeks and has gained close to 1 per cent this week. So far at least, the panic in the financial markets has not weighed on the New Zealand dollar, which is sensitive to risk. The Fed is again on center stage, as Chair Jerome Powell testified on the Hill on Wednesday and will appear before lawmakers today as well. There had been some speculation that the war in Ukraine might force the Fed to delay a rate hike, but Powell removed any such doubts in his testimony, stating that the hike would go ahead as planned. Powell's comments suggested that the Fed will stick with the traditional 25-bps move rather than a massive half-point hike. The confirmation of a rate hike by Powell boosted US Treasury yields, and currently the 10-year yield is at 1.85%. There is resistance at 0.6826 and 0.6908 NZD/USD has support at 0.6647 and 0.6550
by OANDA
Euro yawns after soft German confidence dataThe standoff in Ukraine continues to escalate, but the financial markets remain calm for now. The US and other western nations have slapped further sanctions on Russia after Moscow sent troops to two breakaway regions in eastern Ukraine. Despite this, investor risk appetite recovered on Tuesday, and the euro, which is extremely sensitive to the conflict in its backyard, is trading sideways. The US has canceled a meeting between the US Secretary of State and the Russian Foreign Minister, and a Biden-Putin summit will not take place, given the volatile situation in Ukraine. Nonetheless, there is a sliver of hope that the diplomatic door has not been shut completely, although the prevailing mood is still that Russia will invade and perhaps conquer the capital Kyiv. German GfK consumer sentiment expects confidence to weaken in March, with a reading of -8.1, down from -6.7 in February. This was lower than the consensus of -6.3 and marked a third straight month of negative readings, as consumers continue to feel pessimistic about economic conditions. The survey was conducted in mid-February, and the Omicron wave and high inflation were the primary factors which impacted on the mood of consumers. The Federal Reserve is widely expected to raise rates at its March meeting. The most likely scenario is a traditional hike of 25 basis points, but just a week ago there was a reasonable likelihood of a 50-basis point move. However, the Ukraine crisis and the surge in oil prices could trigger stagflation, which could prod central bankers to hold off on any rate increases. Even if the Fed pushes ahead with a rate hike in March, the Ukraine standoff could well slow down the Fed's plans to raise rates, especially if there is a Russian invasion and oil prices rise to USD 120 a barrel or higher. EUR/USD faces resistance at the 100-MA at 1.1391. Above, there is resistance at 1.1449 There is support at the 61.8 fibo at 1.1264, followed by 1.1217
by OANDA
Bitcoin: the big short squeeze & continuation of the trend (25K)Interesting play by the market makers on Friday where we saw a stop hunt drop in the brink's box (pre market New York) in order to send it during the session. Most of retail was fearful at 40K just over a week ago and euphoric a week later at the same price; "the bottom is in" and I've seen the "100K" posts again. Too funny. But this exactly how market makers work their price action; simply inducing people to step in and provide liquidity. Once you have committed, the market maker is in control and has options to source your liquidity - up or down. The 10% pump in the New York session was based on positive news on the non-farm payroll which smashed its projections as well as strong results from AMZN and SNAP. The first can not be seen as good news as it will give the fed even more reason for aggressive rate hikes. The fed futures market represented this sentiment and ripped lower. The latter (SNAP & AMZN) supported the American indexes during a turbulent week. Now, let's talk crypto. Is this the market reversal the bulls have been waiting for? In my opinion: no. What I see is a weekly mean reversion and a short squeeze. With the next FOMC coming up in March and definitely announcing a rate hike, what I see here is position building of the market maker in anticipation for March. In crypto, building shorts is easy for market makers, print a fat green candle and the whole market is long and thus the market maker builds his shorts. In just one day, only the Bitcoin bulls have dropped 22BN(!) of long liquidations between 30 and 40K, an area for a future visit. As I mentioned in one of my previous ideas I did anticipate a green February in order to release liquidity to the downside in March / April. On the chart we can see we are in wave 4 which I expect to mature during February in order to start wave 5 and capitulation in March or April. At this very moment we are still below the daily and weekly 50 EMA as well as the bull market support band - so definitely not a time for extreme bullishness. Resistance for wave 4 will likely be found between 45 and 50K with special interest for the 46K and the 50K mark which represent sigma levels to the upside. Another point of interest is the 365 day EMA which represents our yearly mean and acts as a resistance area to create a new impulse to the downside. For a revamped bull market, the only way out would be a less hawkish fed with no interest rate hike in March. An unlikely scenario, yet a scenario to take into account. Given we are well into the mark down phase, potential bottom targets come to light with special interest for the target out of the bigger M formation (wave 3 & 5, neckline at 4) which would be around the 25,6K level. This could be a potential Bitcoin macro bottom depending on some further developments on regulation around the world's biggest crypto currency. However, my concern lies with the fact we have not consolidated between 19K (2017 ATH) and 30K (bottom July 2021). Thus, a spring towards 19/20K can not be excluded and a tap of the 1095 day (4 years) EMA would suffice to call this area the "real bottom". Conclusion, in my opinion we will see more green in February, sourcing as much liquidity to the upside while building positions (market maker shorts) to the downside. We could realistically expect market makers to start a new impulse to the downside a week (or two?) before the FOMC in March. Targets for the end of February will rely on the action in the options market with a big expiration of Feb 28th. Likely zone of interest for February's expiration would be between 42 - 46K, a scenario that would induce more bullish calls for the March expiration (which currently inhibits the most open interest) and thus a lower max pain price. Expect rain on the sunniest of days. I MPORTANT: this is not financial advice, trade or invest based on your own risk and research.
by cryptobullethbtcxlm
33
Canadian dollar flat, CPI nextIt has been a quiet week for the Canadian dollar, despite the crisis between Ukraine and Russia, which has captivated the world's attention. The lack of movement could change on Wednesday, as Canada releases the inflation report for February. Canada's CPI looked weak in December, with a reading of -0.1% m/m. However, inflation is expected to have jumped in January, with a consensus of a strong gain of 0.6%. A reading within expectations would indicate that high inflation remains alive and well and will put pressure on the Bank of Canada to take aggressive action in order to curb inflation. BoC Governor Tiff Macklem has said that more rate hikes are coming in order to lower inflation to the central bank's 2% target, but other than that hasn't provided any guidance. Macklem has maintained that inflation is transitory and will ease in the second half of the year but he may have to adjust his stance, as we saw with Fed Chair Powell, if inflation continues to accelerate. The crisis on the Ukraine/Russia border remains a powder keg that could explode at any time. Somewhat surprisingly, this major geopolitical development has not affected the Canadian dollar, which is a minor currency that is sensitive to risk sentiment. That could change if there are dramatic moves in the next few days, such as a Russian invasion, which could see the currency tumble, or a Russian troop withdrawal from the border, which would be bullish for the Canadian dollar. There are still hopes that a diplomatic solution can be reached and there have been reports of some Russian troops withdrawing from the border. The solution to the crisis is firmly in the hands of Russian President Vladimir Putin. The West has no intention of supporting Ukraine militarily, so the key question is whether the threat of sanctions is enough to dissuade Putin from starting a war in central Europe. USD/CAD faces resistance at 1.2818 and 1.2873  1.2679 is being tested in support for a second straight day. Below, there is support at 1.2595
by OANDA