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NZ dollar slips, mfg. sales nextThe New Zealand dollar has started the week in negative territory. NZD/USD is down 0.50%, and is trading at 0.6825 in the North American session. The currency enjoyed its best week since August 2021, with gains of 1.75%. The war in Europe has drained risk appetite, but the kiwi, although sensitive to risk, is also a commodity-based currency, and has moved higher on the wings of soaring commodity prices. New Zealand releases Manufacturing Sales for Q4 on Tuesday. After a weak Q3 release of -2.2%, a positive reading could give NZD/USD a boost. The war in Ukraine has understandably taken over the news, overshadowing the economic calendar. Still, investors are also keeping an eye on key releases, and among the most important are US nonfarm payrolls. The news was good on Friday, as February NFP outperformed with a strong showing. The economy created 678 thousand jobs in February, crushing the consensus of 400 thousand and above the January reading of 481 thousand. The unemployment rate fell to 3.8%, down from 4.0%. With workers in short supply, pressure on wages will continue, and the Fed is likely to respond with a cycle of rate hikes, starting in March. Inflation continues to accelerate, and there had been talk of the Fed taking a drastic measure and imposing a half-point rate hike. However, the war in Ukraine and the stunning rise in oil prices has led to central banks showing an abundance of caution in this turbulent economic landscape. The CME's FedWatch is projecting a 94% likelihood of a 25-basis point rise at the March meeting. This will mark the liftoff of a rate-tightening cycle, as the Fed moves toward normalization. The US releases CPI on Thursday, which is projected to hit 8%. A release within expectations will raise pressure on the Fed to align their timeline more closely with market expectations of six rate hikes this year. The Fed was slow to react to high inflation, and faces a real challenge in raising rates enough to bring inflation down to manageable levels without choking off the recovery. 0.6803 is a weak support line and could be tested during the day. Below, there is support at 0.6733 There is resistance at 0.6931 and 0.7000
by OANDA
$VIX - Consolidating Toward an Obvious CatalystLong before Putin rolled his tanks and 180k troops into the independent and democratic nation of Ukraine, there were rightful concerns about inflation and its effect on the US economy. The war in Eastern Europe has served as a convenient distraction for us while we laugh off Jerome Powell's 'transitory' inflation comments. There have been some indications that inflation was beginning to ease. Economists have largely argued that the economy is healthy- but the Fed was behind on hiking rates. This was put on the back burner as Putin makes grave errors in Ukraine. Now we are already sneaking up on CPI data release again. The fed chairs have been arguing back and forth between a .25 and .50 hike for over a month. Powell said just yesterday he is leaning toward .25 but left the door open to .50 if the data supports it. The last CPI was higher in the wrong direction - and the market didn't like it. Over the 12 months from January 2021 to January 2022, the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose 7.5 percent. This was the largest 12-month increase since the 12-month period ending February 1982. Food prices increased 7.0 percent over the past year, while energy prices rose 27.0 percent. Prices for food at home rose 7.4 percent over the last 12 months. All of the six major grocery store food groups increased over the period. By far the largest increase was that of meats, poultry, fish, and eggs, which rose 12.2 percent over the year. Prices for dairy and related products increased 3.1 percent, the smallest 12-month increase among in the food at home category. Prices for food away from home rose 6.4 percent over the last year, the largest 12-month increase since January 1982. Within the energy category, gasoline prices rose 40.0 percent over the last year, despite declining in January. Prices for natural gas rose 23.9 percent over the last 12 months, and prices for electricity rose 10.7 percent. Prices for all items less food and energy index rose 6.0 percent, the largest 12-month change since the period ending August 1982. Within this grouping, prices for shelter increased 4.4 percent over the past year, prices for medical care services were up 2.7 percent, and prices for transportation services increased 5.6 percent. So where does this leave us now? With a lot of questions and uncertainty. Which is what the market likes the least out of all things. The VIX has been making lower highs and higher lows for several days and the triangle above suggests a collision path right smack dab on March 10th. How will the war affect the consumer price index? This remains to be seen. One can assume only more supply chain disruptions and some added inflation in certain parts of the economy. A short reminder on what CPI is from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics: The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in prices paid by consumers for goods and services. The CPI reflects spending patterns for each of two population groups: all urban consumers and urban wage earners and clerical workers. The all urban consumer group represents about 93 percent of the total U.S. population. It is based on the expenditures of almost all residents of urban or metropolitan areas, including professionals, the self-employed, the poor, the unemployed, and retired people, as well as urban wage earners and clerical workers. Not included in the CPI are the spending patterns of people living in rural nonmetropolitan areas, farming families, people in the Armed Forces, and those in institutions, such as prisons and mental hospitals. Consumer inflation for all urban consumers is measured by two indexes, namely, the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) and the Chained Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (C-CPI-U)
TVC:VIX
by jaykenneyTRT
2
New Zealand dollar edges higherThe New Zealand dollar has posted small gains on Thursday, as NZD/USD has pushed above the 0.68 line in the North American session. New Zealand is hugely dependent on its export industry, and the Covid pandemic has taken its toll on exports, as global demand has fallen. However, with the worst of Covid hopefully behind us, global demand has picked up, which bodes well for New Zealand's economy. The ANZ Commodity Price Index climbed 3.9% in February, its strongest gain since March 2021. The war in Ukraine has intensified, with fierce fighting reported near Ukraine's major cities as the number of refugees fleeing from Ukraine has hit one million. Western countries has imposed severe sanctions on Moscow as relations between East and West have plummeted. Russian and Ukrainian officials will hold talks later today, which has raised risk sentiment and kept the New Zealand dollar in positive territory. NZD/USD has been on an impressive roll, posting four straight winning weeks and has gained close to 1 per cent this week. So far at least, the panic in the financial markets has not weighed on the New Zealand dollar, which is sensitive to risk. The Fed is again on center stage, as Chair Jerome Powell testified on the Hill on Wednesday and will appear before lawmakers today as well. There had been some speculation that the war in Ukraine might force the Fed to delay a rate hike, but Powell removed any such doubts in his testimony, stating that the hike would go ahead as planned. Powell's comments suggested that the Fed will stick with the traditional 25-bps move rather than a massive half-point hike. The confirmation of a rate hike by Powell boosted US Treasury yields, and currently the 10-year yield is at 1.85%. There is resistance at 0.6826 and 0.6908 NZD/USD has support at 0.6647 and 0.6550
by OANDA
Euro yawns after soft German confidence dataThe standoff in Ukraine continues to escalate, but the financial markets remain calm for now. The US and other western nations have slapped further sanctions on Russia after Moscow sent troops to two breakaway regions in eastern Ukraine. Despite this, investor risk appetite recovered on Tuesday, and the euro, which is extremely sensitive to the conflict in its backyard, is trading sideways. The US has canceled a meeting between the US Secretary of State and the Russian Foreign Minister, and a Biden-Putin summit will not take place, given the volatile situation in Ukraine. Nonetheless, there is a sliver of hope that the diplomatic door has not been shut completely, although the prevailing mood is still that Russia will invade and perhaps conquer the capital Kyiv. German GfK consumer sentiment expects confidence to weaken in March, with a reading of -8.1, down from -6.7 in February. This was lower than the consensus of -6.3 and marked a third straight month of negative readings, as consumers continue to feel pessimistic about economic conditions. The survey was conducted in mid-February, and the Omicron wave and high inflation were the primary factors which impacted on the mood of consumers. The Federal Reserve is widely expected to raise rates at its March meeting. The most likely scenario is a traditional hike of 25 basis points, but just a week ago there was a reasonable likelihood of a 50-basis point move. However, the Ukraine crisis and the surge in oil prices could trigger stagflation, which could prod central bankers to hold off on any rate increases. Even if the Fed pushes ahead with a rate hike in March, the Ukraine standoff could well slow down the Fed's plans to raise rates, especially if there is a Russian invasion and oil prices rise to USD 120 a barrel or higher. EUR/USD faces resistance at the 100-MA at 1.1391. Above, there is resistance at 1.1449 There is support at the 61.8 fibo at 1.1264, followed by 1.1217
by OANDA
Bitcoin: the big short squeeze & continuation of the trend (25K)Interesting play by the market makers on Friday where we saw a stop hunt drop in the brink's box (pre market New York) in order to send it during the session. Most of retail was fearful at 40K just over a week ago and euphoric a week later at the same price; "the bottom is in" and I've seen the "100K" posts again. Too funny. But this exactly how market makers work their price action; simply inducing people to step in and provide liquidity. Once you have committed, the market maker is in control and has options to source your liquidity - up or down. The 10% pump in the New York session was based on positive news on the non-farm payroll which smashed its projections as well as strong results from AMZN and SNAP. The first can not be seen as good news as it will give the fed even more reason for aggressive rate hikes. The fed futures market represented this sentiment and ripped lower. The latter (SNAP & AMZN) supported the American indexes during a turbulent week. Now, let's talk crypto. Is this the market reversal the bulls have been waiting for? In my opinion: no. What I see is a weekly mean reversion and a short squeeze. With the next FOMC coming up in March and definitely announcing a rate hike, what I see here is position building of the market maker in anticipation for March. In crypto, building shorts is easy for market makers, print a fat green candle and the whole market is long and thus the market maker builds his shorts. In just one day, only the Bitcoin bulls have dropped 22BN(!) of long liquidations between 30 and 40K, an area for a future visit. As I mentioned in one of my previous ideas I did anticipate a green February in order to release liquidity to the downside in March / April. On the chart we can see we are in wave 4 which I expect to mature during February in order to start wave 5 and capitulation in March or April. At this very moment we are still below the daily and weekly 50 EMA as well as the bull market support band - so definitely not a time for extreme bullishness. Resistance for wave 4 will likely be found between 45 and 50K with special interest for the 46K and the 50K mark which represent sigma levels to the upside. Another point of interest is the 365 day EMA which represents our yearly mean and acts as a resistance area to create a new impulse to the downside. For a revamped bull market, the only way out would be a less hawkish fed with no interest rate hike in March. An unlikely scenario, yet a scenario to take into account. Given we are well into the mark down phase, potential bottom targets come to light with special interest for the target out of the bigger M formation (wave 3 & 5, neckline at 4) which would be around the 25,6K level. This could be a potential Bitcoin macro bottom depending on some further developments on regulation around the world's biggest crypto currency. However, my concern lies with the fact we have not consolidated between 19K (2017 ATH) and 30K (bottom July 2021). Thus, a spring towards 19/20K can not be excluded and a tap of the 1095 day (4 years) EMA would suffice to call this area the "real bottom". Conclusion, in my opinion we will see more green in February, sourcing as much liquidity to the upside while building positions (market maker shorts) to the downside. We could realistically expect market makers to start a new impulse to the downside a week (or two?) before the FOMC in March. Targets for the end of February will rely on the action in the options market with a big expiration of Feb 28th. Likely zone of interest for February's expiration would be between 42 - 46K, a scenario that would induce more bullish calls for the March expiration (which currently inhibits the most open interest) and thus a lower max pain price. Expect rain on the sunniest of days. I MPORTANT: this is not financial advice, trade or invest based on your own risk and research.
by cryptobullethbtcxlm
33
Canadian dollar flat, CPI nextIt has been a quiet week for the Canadian dollar, despite the crisis between Ukraine and Russia, which has captivated the world's attention. The lack of movement could change on Wednesday, as Canada releases the inflation report for February. Canada's CPI looked weak in December, with a reading of -0.1% m/m. However, inflation is expected to have jumped in January, with a consensus of a strong gain of 0.6%. A reading within expectations would indicate that high inflation remains alive and well and will put pressure on the Bank of Canada to take aggressive action in order to curb inflation. BoC Governor Tiff Macklem has said that more rate hikes are coming in order to lower inflation to the central bank's 2% target, but other than that hasn't provided any guidance. Macklem has maintained that inflation is transitory and will ease in the second half of the year but he may have to adjust his stance, as we saw with Fed Chair Powell, if inflation continues to accelerate. The crisis on the Ukraine/Russia border remains a powder keg that could explode at any time. Somewhat surprisingly, this major geopolitical development has not affected the Canadian dollar, which is a minor currency that is sensitive to risk sentiment. That could change if there are dramatic moves in the next few days, such as a Russian invasion, which could see the currency tumble, or a Russian troop withdrawal from the border, which would be bullish for the Canadian dollar. There are still hopes that a diplomatic solution can be reached and there have been reports of some Russian troops withdrawing from the border. The solution to the crisis is firmly in the hands of Russian President Vladimir Putin. The West has no intention of supporting Ukraine militarily, so the key question is whether the threat of sanctions is enough to dissuade Putin from starting a war in central Europe. USD/CAD faces resistance at 1.2818 and 1.2873  1.2679 is being tested in support for a second straight day. Below, there is support at 1.2595
by OANDA
Bitcoin and the Stock MarketDisclaimer: This is written for entertainment purposes only. I am not licensed or certified to give financial advice, an no publication may be interpreted as such. I am not responsible for any financial loss or damages. You are responsible for doing your own research and forming your own ideas and theories. Thanks for reading! Bitcoin has been all over the place lately, it is important to understand why and what has been driving its price movement to decide if you are bullish or bearish in the short term. There is a lot of speculation lately regarding whether the bottom is in and the next bull cycle has already started, or if the downtrend will continue. BTC tends move with, and sometimes even lead, the NASDAQ. The correlation certainly isn't perfect, and it wouldn't make sense if it were perfect given the different trading ecosystems of the former and latter. Bitcoin has the opportunity for its price action to react to market news immediately 24/7, whereas the NASDAQ is only active a portion of each day. That being said, according to Bloomberg, Bitcoin's 40-Day correlation coefficients with the NASDAQ are at all time highs: 0.66. One cannot help but wonder if it is a coincidence that the stocks in the NASDAQ trade for about .58 of a full day compared to BTC. The chart below helps us visualize the markets over the last 6 months. The DOW, S&P, abd NASDAQ have all been in a short term downtrend, and currently stand around close to zero net change over the last 6 months approximately. Interestingly, Bitcoin and the NASDAQ topped in November of 2021, followed by the S&P's and DOW's tops in January. There are two major questions we need to ask ourselves regarding Bitcoin in my opinion: 1) If the stock markets continue to decline, will Bitcoin decline also? 2) What could catalyze these markets to turn around all together right now? 1) This does seem likely. Given the recent high correlation between BTC and stocks, and if we assume a catalyst is required to change this, we can speculate on what might trigger this kind of change. We need to form our own opinions on this. In my opinion, there are two potential catalysts that could realistically make this happen in the short term: -Bitcoin SPOT ETF Approval by the SEC -Positive SEC regulation/guidance regarding crypto 2) To answer this question, we need some context first: The FED, led by Jerome Powell, was previously on team transitory for months, and it seemed somewhat logical. There was a major (deprecating) catalyst prompting an enormous pivot from retail to online shopping (COVID-19.) This sudden market pivot spiked the rate of inflation, and as time goes on, prices would theoretically revert to a normal rate of inflation if team transitory were winning. The FED expected inflation to spike by late 2021 in this model, which has not happened, and this is why they no longer use the term transitory. It is speculated by some that this model was correct and dirsupted by the Delta variant. The FED has been punctual recently regarding its plan on fighting inflation. Jerome Powel has said time and time again that the FED does not want to disrupt the jobs market, which has seen increasingly strengthening reports. A bad disruption could lead to a wage-price spiral, hyperinflation, and then ultimately the destruction of the US dollar, if not handled correctly (this would be a worst case scenario and the FED's strongest priority is preventing this.) The FED has been tapering off quantitative easing (injecting massive amounts of newly created money into the economy via the purchase of mortgage-backed securities,) and the taper is almost complete. The time to transition to quantitative tightening is rapidly approaching, and it is widely speculated that the first interest rate increases will result from the upcoming FED meetings. The overall lack of certainty and confidence that the FED has inflation under control is the primary driver of market FUD currently. Fear of a recession is extremely powerful, and if the FED does not respond appropriately, the consequences may be severe. If you believe the FED will raise rates, then you must speculate on whether or not the stock market has already priced this in. It is in the general view of the FED that valuations are very high, which implies that the markets are generally overbought (in their opinion.) The FED uses monthly Consumer Price Index reports, amongst other tools, to track inflation. CPI reports are still indicating increasing rates of inflation. To answer the question, the markets would want see the FED keep rates at zero for the market to bottom. More specifically, we would need inflation to decline without intervention. Ultimately, you need to make up your own mind and do your own research. I write these summaries to provide context on what is going on, it is your responsibility to decide what you think will happen and trade/invest accordingly with your risk tolerance. Technical Analysis Bitcoin is trading at interesting price levels currently. The 500 Day moving average (orange) is just above $41,250. Bitcoin has not traded below this level since March of 2020, and this level may indicate an extended bear market for Crypto if support does not hold. The 12 day moving average(light blue) has also converged to a similar price level, leaving us in a very pivotal time. The descending channel is drawn out in red, and we will discuss what a bull and bear market may look like. The Bull Case Bitcoin needs to find support. If we find support at the 12day/500day moving averages, then we may expect a retest of the upper bound of the descending channel drawn in red. A clean upwards break of this channel is bullish, and then Bitcoin would need to set a new local high over 45,850 to establish an uptrend. The Bear Case Bitcoin does not find lasting support at the 500 day moving average, and tests the yellow trendline. If the yellow trend does not hold up, then we may see a test of the lower bound of the current downtrend around $27,000 Final Remarks It will be wise to closely monitor the actions of the FED over the several weeks and months. They have the power to move markets, their number one concern is inflation, and monthly inflation reports are coming in high. Interest rate hikes are the primary combat to inflation for the FED, and if you think that is what they will do, you need to determine how you think the market will react. We have some decent trendlines to use for guidance, and time will soon tell where the trend will go. Thanks for reading, good luck!
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by CryptoRichCrypto
Bounce on .5 Fibonacci ExtensionThe SPX & VXX both bounced from the .5 Fibonacci extension and retractement on daily time frames. Monday will be interesting with the Ukraine situations + Emergency FED Meeting results. I can see it going both ways unfortunately but the trend says we find a lower low. My gut tells me a no deal no info meeting through the weekend on Ukraine, and more accommodations from the fed because of Ukraine. These conditions could send the vix higher in the short term, we could finally see the sell off breadth we’ve been waiting for to call the bottom. Engulfments everywhere on the weekly’s charts look terrible. And the setup looks bullish to me on the VXX.
CBOE:VXX
by backupthetruck9000
US 10 Yr Treasury: Weekly Chart UpdateQuick Analysis on 10 Year Treasury Yield on a 1W Linear Chart. 1) The US 10 Year Treasury Yield has been respecting a falling channel for multiple decades going back to the 1980s. 2) It is currently headed to the top trendline of the channel with a possibility to break in the coming months. 3) The measured move of the falling channel would bring it back to Pre-2008 ranges. 4) This may fall in line with the US Dollar strengthening (in the idea section below). 5) If US 10 Year Treasury Yield goes lower, there is not much more room for it to get to 0. What are your opinions on this? If you enjoy my ideas, feel free to like it and drop in a comment. I love reading your comments below. Disclosure: This is just my opinion and not any type of financial advice. I enjoy charting and discussing technical analysis . Don't trade based on my advice. Do your own research! #cryptopickk
TVC:TNXLong
by MillionaireEconomics
4
DXY Finds Support Off Inflation Data, FedThe US dollar has been bought up from relative lows at 95.26. The firmness in the dollar stems from inflation data yesterday and increased expectations of a Fed hike. We did see some volatility in the DXY, but support has held strong, and we appear to be making a run for the 96's again. However, 96.00 has provided prohibitive resistance for the moment, with two rejections and a red triangle on the KRI to confirm resistance. If we are able to break this level, then 96.24 and 96.44 are the next levels. Otherwise, we should see continued support from 95.26.
TVC:DXYLong
by quantguy
Gold Falls Short of $1836Gold has found resistance at 1836, exactly as we anticipated in these reports. We have since retraced back to support at 1826, the next level down, after testing 1815 and finding support just above this level. Two green triangles on the KRI suggest strong support at 1821 or so. The Kovach OBV was pretty strong, but has leveled off in tandem with gold's top. From here, we are likely to establish value between 1815 and 1836. Note the vacuum zone below 1815 to 1795, which was a previous value area. If support does not hold at current levels we will surely test this value area once again.
COMEX:GC1!
by quantguy
1
Bonds Smash Lows After Inflation DataBonds took a sharp nose dive off increased Fed rate hike expectations and inflation. We smashed through our lowest levels of support and drove deeper into the 126 handle, before finally bottoming out at 125'17, a support level extrapolated from inverse Fibonacci levels, a tool we are relying on more and more, now that we have exhausted all of our lower technical levels. We are seeing a brief pivot off this level, and appear to be making a run for the 126's again. Currently we are meeting resistance at the psychological level of 126'00, with 126'02 providing resistance as confirmed by a red triangle on the KRI. The Kovach OBV has turned even more bearish with the massive selloff yesterday, but does appear to be leveling off with the support. If we are able to break into the 126's again, then 126'11 is sure to provide resistance. Our next target below is 125'07 if we selloff further.
CBOT:ZN1!Short
by quantguy
Markets price in five Fed rate hikes in 2022, cut by 2025Fed policy bets are evolving, which may explain why gold has managed an upswing alongside the S&P 500 while the US Dollar has fallen so far in February. Policymakers’ increasingly assertive posture on stimulus withdrawal coupled with supportive economic data – most recently, January’s payrolls report – have driven up near-term rate hike expectations. The longer view has softened, however. Fed funds futures imply that the push to price in five 25bps rate hikes for 2022 has likewise seen the 2023 outlook soften, from three such increases to two. A single rise seems to have drifted out to 2024, implying adjustment to a more gradual path after fireworks this year. Strikingly, a cut is now priced in for 2025.
by IlyaSpivak
Canadian dollar edges higherThe Canadian dollar has posted slight gains on Wednesday. There are no Canadian tier-1 events on the calendar this week, so we can expect US releases will have a magnified impact on the movement of the Canadian dollar this week. With the Fed poised to launch a series of rate hikes starting in March and inflation surging in Canada, it's unlikely that the Bank of Canada will simply fold its hands. BoC Governor Tiff Macklem said as much when speaking to a Senate committee in Ottawa last week. Macklem said that additional interest rates are needed to lower inflation to the 2% target, with the number of hikes depending on economic developments. And after that? There hasn't been much guidance from the BoC, leaving the markets in the dark. Although Macklem was clear that additional rate hikes are on the way, his comments indicated that he still views inflation as transitory, saying that he expects inflation to ease in the second half of 2022. Macklem is speaking to the Canadian Chamber of Commerce today and any hints about rate moves could wake up the sleepy Canadian dollar. In the US, the markets have priced in at least five rate hikes this year, but the Fed is still more dovish. Earlier in the day, Fed member Bostic said that he saw inflation easing shortly and said he expects 3-4 rate hikes this year. Bostic's remarks boosted risk appetite, as concerns that the Fed will tighten aggressively have eased. US inflation continues to rise and the markets are bracing for an acceleration in January CPI. The consensus stands at 7.3%, which would be up from 7.0% in December. If inflation is within expectations or higher, the likelihood of a 50-basis point hike in March will increase. According to CME's FedWatch, the markets have priced in a 75% chance of a 25-bps rise and a 25% chance of a 50-bps hike at the March meeting. USD/CAD faces resistance at 1.2818 and 1.2873 1.2679 is being tested in support for a second straight day. Below, there is support at 1.2595
by OANDA