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Gold Falls Short of $1836Gold has found resistance at 1836, exactly as we anticipated in these reports. We have since retraced back to support at 1826, the next level down, after testing 1815 and finding support just above this level. Two green triangles on the KRI suggest strong support at 1821 or so. The Kovach OBV was pretty strong, but has leveled off in tandem with gold's top. From here, we are likely to establish value between 1815 and 1836. Note the vacuum zone below 1815 to 1795, which was a previous value area. If support does not hold at current levels we will surely test this value area once again.
COMEX:GC1!
by quantguy
1
Bonds Smash Lows After Inflation DataBonds took a sharp nose dive off increased Fed rate hike expectations and inflation. We smashed through our lowest levels of support and drove deeper into the 126 handle, before finally bottoming out at 125'17, a support level extrapolated from inverse Fibonacci levels, a tool we are relying on more and more, now that we have exhausted all of our lower technical levels. We are seeing a brief pivot off this level, and appear to be making a run for the 126's again. Currently we are meeting resistance at the psychological level of 126'00, with 126'02 providing resistance as confirmed by a red triangle on the KRI. The Kovach OBV has turned even more bearish with the massive selloff yesterday, but does appear to be leveling off with the support. If we are able to break into the 126's again, then 126'11 is sure to provide resistance. Our next target below is 125'07 if we selloff further.
CBOT:ZN1!Short
by quantguy
Markets price in five Fed rate hikes in 2022, cut by 2025Fed policy bets are evolving, which may explain why gold has managed an upswing alongside the S&P 500 while the US Dollar has fallen so far in February. Policymakers’ increasingly assertive posture on stimulus withdrawal coupled with supportive economic data – most recently, January’s payrolls report – have driven up near-term rate hike expectations. The longer view has softened, however. Fed funds futures imply that the push to price in five 25bps rate hikes for 2022 has likewise seen the 2023 outlook soften, from three such increases to two. A single rise seems to have drifted out to 2024, implying adjustment to a more gradual path after fireworks this year. Strikingly, a cut is now priced in for 2025.
by IlyaSpivak
Canadian dollar edges higherThe Canadian dollar has posted slight gains on Wednesday. There are no Canadian tier-1 events on the calendar this week, so we can expect US releases will have a magnified impact on the movement of the Canadian dollar this week. With the Fed poised to launch a series of rate hikes starting in March and inflation surging in Canada, it's unlikely that the Bank of Canada will simply fold its hands. BoC Governor Tiff Macklem said as much when speaking to a Senate committee in Ottawa last week. Macklem said that additional interest rates are needed to lower inflation to the 2% target, with the number of hikes depending on economic developments. And after that? There hasn't been much guidance from the BoC, leaving the markets in the dark. Although Macklem was clear that additional rate hikes are on the way, his comments indicated that he still views inflation as transitory, saying that he expects inflation to ease in the second half of 2022. Macklem is speaking to the Canadian Chamber of Commerce today and any hints about rate moves could wake up the sleepy Canadian dollar. In the US, the markets have priced in at least five rate hikes this year, but the Fed is still more dovish. Earlier in the day, Fed member Bostic said that he saw inflation easing shortly and said he expects 3-4 rate hikes this year. Bostic's remarks boosted risk appetite, as concerns that the Fed will tighten aggressively have eased. US inflation continues to rise and the markets are bracing for an acceleration in January CPI. The consensus stands at 7.3%, which would be up from 7.0% in December. If inflation is within expectations or higher, the likelihood of a 50-basis point hike in March will increase. According to CME's FedWatch, the markets have priced in a 75% chance of a 25-bps rise and a 25% chance of a 50-bps hike at the March meeting. USD/CAD faces resistance at 1.2818 and 1.2873 1.2679 is being tested in support for a second straight day. Below, there is support at 1.2595
by OANDA
EURUSD Short Ahead of U.S. CPIEuro was boosted by a hawkish shift in the ECB's tone, which I believe is very premature since Euro Area core inflation sits around 2.3% contracting, along with headline inflation being less than the U.S. and mostly due to energy costs/supply chain issues which are transitory. Couple that with the Fed not raising rates in the last meeting, we couldn't push through the 1.12000 support. I believe has the month goes on, U.S. core inflation numbers will either hit estimates or overshoot which will bring us lower ahead of a strong hike next meeting.
Short
by UnknownUnicorn15362357
How Will Increased Interest Rates in the USD Affect Crypto? Now that the Federal Reserve seems committed to raising interest rates in response to inflation (something that they denied was a problem during 2021) we're going to see a shift in the way money is talked about in the near future. What does this mean for crypto, and the greater economy, overall? - The US growth and assets markets have been driven strongly by the availability of cheap loans since 2008, an era that is now coming to a close because the only way to avoid a hyper-inflationary economy in the USD right now is to raise interest rates. - The historic rate at which the US Treasury printed money -- largely justified through COVID woes -- is extreme and it's TBD whether or not the proposed rates will be enough to offset its after-effects. (Was initially 2%, now proposed to ~3%.) The government is broke and has no other choice. - Higher interest rates are generally bad for "risk-takers" in the market, but good for people who like to save. The idea of the government and financial sectors actively encouraging people to save, however, has been missing from the mainstream narratives for a while. Whether or not the institutions can adapt fast enough to form a holistic plan in the midst of the turmoil is yet to be seen. The condition has been around long enough that this scenario will be new to even "experienced" financial experts out there. - This presents a new economic landscape/opportunity for entrepreneurs and investors looking to capitalize on the change. But in this environment, the "slow growth" approach is likely to be more successful than the marketing-driven hype markets that has dominated the scene for the last 10-15 years. (Yes, even in crypto. ex. SHIB, NFT-hype.) - Generally speaking, countries with higher inflation rates tend to have higher crypto adoption rates as well. Will the same happen to crypto, NFTs, and metaverse -based assets? Time will tell -- but now crypto at least has the title of an "alternative asset" with the potential for high growth, especially since it's not affected by supply chain issues that traditional assets are tied into right now. - Since 2021 there have been a lot of crypto-based projects that have tied itself into the USD markets through traditional legal arrangements and contracts (as opposed to "pure" crypto investments that aren't concerned with what the traditional markets are doing right now) -- this money is more likely to run in parallel to the outcomes that fiat money will face as the interest rates start to ramp up in 2022.
Long
by RyanTanaka
How Will Increased Interest Rates in the USD Affect Crypto? Now that the Federal Reserve seems committed to raising interest rates in response to inflation (something that they denied was a problem during 2021) we're going to see a shift in the way money is talked about in the near future. What does this mean for crypto, and the greater economy, overall? - The US growth and assets markets have been driven strongly by the availability of cheap loans since 2008, an era that is now coming to a close because the only way to avoid a hyper-inflationary economy in the USD right now is to raise interest rates. - The historic rate at which the US Treasury printed money -- largely justified through COVID woes -- is extreme and it's TBD whether or not the proposed rates will be enough to offset its after-effects. (Was initially 2%, now proposed to ~3%.) The government is broke and has no other choice. - Higher interest rates are generally bad for "risk-takers" in the market, but good for people who like to save. The idea of the government and financial sectors actively encouraging people to save, however, has been missing from the mainstream narratives for a while. Whether or not the institutions can adapt fast enough to form a holistic plan in the midst of the turmoil is yet to be seen. The condition has been around long enough that this scenario will be new to even "experienced" financial experts out there. - This presents a new economic landscape/opportunity for entrepreneurs and investors looking to capitalize on the change. But in this environment, the "slow growth" approach is likely to be more successful than the marketing-driven hype markets that has dominated the scene for the last 10-15 years. (Yes, even in crypto. ex. SHIB, NFT-hype.) - Generally speaking, countries with higher inflation rates tend to have higher crypto adoption rates as well. Will the same happen to crypto, NFTs, and metaverse -based assets? Time will tell -- but now crypto at least has the title of an "alternative asset" with the potential for high growth, especially since it's not affected by supply chain issues that traditional assets are tied into right now. - Since 2021 there have been a lot of crypto-based projects that have tied itself into the USD markets through traditional legal arrangements and contracts (as opposed to "pure" crypto investments that aren't concerned with what the traditional markets are doing right now) -- this money is more likely to run in parallel to the outcomes that fiat money will face as the interest rates start to ramp up in 2022.
Long
by RyanTanaka
The raising of interest rates VS BTC price actionHey everyone, Hope everyone is keeping well and in good health. We've seen our crypto portfolios shrink in monetary (FIAT) value. This sucks, but please refrain yourself from making emotional choices here at all times. Above illustration incorporates the recent FED rate hikes between 2015 and 2019 and what the price-action of Bitcoin was in that time period. I know the bears are trying to spread a lot of fear around J. Powell's plans. but always do your own research. Historically speaking, the FED raising interest does not have a negative effect on BTC. Last time the rates hikes began, BTC did over 40x (from around $450 to the 2018 top of nearly $20K) Everyone take care and keep healthy. Thank you for taking the time and until the next time!
BNC:BLX
by impatientmonk
Canadian dollar starts week higherIt was a week to forget for the Canadian dollar. USD/CAD jumped 1.51%, marking the Canadian dollar's worst weekly performance since mid-August. The currency is in positive territory, as USD/CAD is down 0.31% on the day. Canada releases the Raw Materials Price Index later today. The inflation index is expected to decline -1.3%, following a -1.1% beforehand. This week's highlight is GDP for November, which will be released on Tuesday. In the US, the week wrapped up with mixed numbers. The Fed's preferred inflation gauge, the Core PCE Price Index, rose in December 4.9% y/y, up from 4.7% and above the forecast of 4.8%. This marks the highest gain since 1983 and reinforces expectations that the Fed will act aggressively to curb surging inflation. However, personal income rose 0.3% m/m, less than the 0.4% consensus. Consumer spending declined by -0.6%, less than the forecast of -0.7%. As well, UoM Consumer Sentiment fell from 6.8 to 67.4, its lowest reading since 2011. These numbers point to weakness in consumer spending and confidence, which makes for a confusing picture, given that inflation is running rampant. The markets are having difficulty figuring out how many rate hikes are on the way, and Fed policymakers also have differing views on the subject. How hawkish will the Fed be? It is unclear, with forecasts ranging between 3 and 7 hikes this year. A March liftoff seems assured, with the likelihood of a quarter-point hike at 84%, and a 50-bps rise priced at 15%. Traditionally, the Fed raises rates in 0.25% increments, and that's likely what it will deliver. However, a 0.50% hike cannot be ruled out, even though the Fed hasn't implemented such a large hike in twenty years. Such a dramatic move would send a decisive message to the markets that the Fed means business and is determined to stamp out high inflation. The Fed could use a credibility-booster after Jerome Powell stuck to the 'transient inflation' script even when it was glaringly evident that surging inflation wasn't going anywhere. USD/CAD faces resistance at 1.2857 and 1.2948  There is support at 1.2615 and 1.2464
by OANDA
Will the Fed's Interest Rate Hikes Be Good or Bad for Crypto?It's probably going to be a tough market in the short term, but the interest rate hikes of 22' is exactly what the economy needs right now. Reducing access to cheap loans should curb the frenzied markets, at least somewhat. (Though given how low the rates are projected to be, probably not enough.) What does this mean for crypto? Well, that's the big question everyone is asking now. They said that Evergrande and cryptocurrency would go down together, but that didn't turn out to be the case. Will the same happen to USD? In a way, 22' is going to be a big test for how resilient the USD really is. Politics has been warping the numbers lately but inflation is the lie detector that will reveal the truth about the US economy. American Exceptionalism? Or will it follow the same pattern China did? Time will tell. (If you're a crypto supporter like me, you're hoping for the latter, of course.)
Long
by RyanTanaka
S&P 500 Has a Lot More Room to Grow, Too Early for a Recession.If you look at the S&P500 index ( TVC:SPX ) chart, you find that it has reached, and even surpassed, the previous high at 3393.5 which occurred just before the CV19 drop in March 2020. The last close on 31 December 2020 was at 3760. However, many attribute the recent V-shaped recovery to the Quantitative Easing scheme by the Federal Reserve, which makes a lot of sense. Printing money accelerates inflation and raises the prices of everything including stocks. If you haven't yet, look at the M2 Money Supply ( FRED:M2 ) (chart below) to get a feel for the scale of the increase in money supply during 2020 relative to the past 20 years. Below is the chart of SPX for the past 20 years. Below is the chart of M2 money supply for the past 20 years. Notice the jump in the last year. This analysis looks instead at the chart of SPX divided by M2 . That gives us an inflation-adjusted look at SPX. We notice that the index has not yet achieved the V-shaped recovery. It is 2/3 of the way there. What's more, even the Feb 2020 high is not higher than the 2007 high that was just before the house mortgage crisis, and the latter is not higher than the dot-com bubble high in 2000. This simply means that making money through the S&P500 is not really making money, not really increasing the value of your holdings, but it is rather a mere hedge against inflation; and a failed hedge at that. It hasn't even achieved previous highs. With all that being said, I do not believe that the March 2020 correction was anything to be scared of. I think we will achieve the high that occurred just before that drop. I say do not fear a major correction, let alone a recession, before we reach the top of the parallel channel as the arc arrow indicates. And keep your eyes only on the inflation-adjusted chart of SPX.
SP:SPXLong
by TechNerdOmar
4
Gold to $1675?Markets have priced in a March hike for some time, which takes the sting out of this form of tightening, and which could create the set-up for a 'sell-the-news' recovery in risk assets. But, more importantly, participants have begun to question whether the strike on the Fed's put is further from the market, in a regime where the central bank is battling inflation and specifically combating a de-anchoring of inflation expectations. In this context, we think it's unlikely that the Fed will pivot from their plan to start hiking rates as soon as March and start quantitative tightening soon after. However, evidence that quantitative tightening might be more impactful for asset prices suggests that the Fed could still eventually use this policy tool to manage the strike on its put — without necessarily causing undue harm to its primary objective of keeping inflation expectations bounded. For precious metals, this signals few immediate avenues for relief as the complex struggles to attract capital in the face of a hawkish Fed. The evidence continues to overwhelmingly point to Chinese purchases as the single largest source of inflows in past weeks, which are vulnerable with Lunar New Year around the corner. CTA trend followers are set to liquidate some gold length should prices break below $1810/oz. ©TDS CTA Tracker The liquidation occurred, then we're now left with very little structure below to bounce from. Because of that, I am looking to whether the trend followers push for the Sell Stops below $1675 to grab some liquidity and buy into that capitulation
TVC:GOLD
by TH_Analysis
2
BITCOIN , BTCUSDT 1DBitcoin ♻️ Bitcoin jumped up after the support test of 32900 and was able to move up to 38500 But this does not seem to be the end of the downtrend, and the pullback to the lost level was probably $ 39000- 40000$ , According to the ABC model, which was analyzed 4 days ago, the level of 29000-30000$ not been tested yet and the cycle has not been completed⚠️ Bitcoin needs at least a few strong 4-hour candlesticks with a high volume, over 40000$ , to climb and end the correction and downtrend. But tonight, after the Federal Reserve meeting and the release of economic statistics and a statement on digital currencies, we can better understand the market decision and trends ❗️ ➖➖➖➖➖➖ ❤️ If you apperciate my work , Please like and comment , It Keeps me motivated to do better ❤️ 👤 Saeid.Mahbob 📅 01.26.2022
by SaeidMahbob
4
False Breakdown in the S&P 500?Early this year, we covered the false breakout in the S&P 500. Now the opposite may have taken place: a false breakdown. Notice how prices dipped yesterday to their lowest level since mid-June. They blitzed through support from early October and July, before reversing to close slightly positive. That kind of testing below support, followed by a quick rebound back above it, is a potential sign of the bears retreating for now. How to explain the recent violent selloff? Worries about the Federal Reserve are clearly one issue, but another factor could be the concentrated news cycle. After all, investors had to cope with Fed meetings in both December and January – without many any break from corporate earnings. Throw in a few million omicron cases and tensions over Ukraine, and you had a depressing environment emotionally. But how long will the gloomy winds blow? Jerome Powell speaks his piece tomorrow afternoon and exits stage left. Then comes Elon Musk and then Tim Cook , followed by Sundar Pichai and Mark Zuckerberg next week. We also hear from Satya Nadella this evening. That flood of earnings (about half the S&P by the end of next week) could dispel the recent bleakness. Still, SPX has broken the trendline beginning in October 2020. It also took out the 200-day simple moving average . The result could be a period of consolidation as the Fed begins its hawkish work. Traders may watch the early-December lows around 4500 as the next important resistance and prepare for a few months of chopping around. (Remember the first rate hike is expected in March.) TradeStation is a pioneer in the trading industry, providing access to stocks, options, futures and cryptocurrencies. See our Overview for more. Important Information TradingView is not affiliated with TradeStation Securities Inc. or its affiliates. TradeStation Securities, Inc., TradeStation Crypto, Inc., and TradeStation Technologies, Inc. are each wholly owned subsidiaries of TradeStation Group, Inc., all operating, and providing products and services, under the TradeStation brand and trademark. When applying for, or purchasing, accounts, subscriptions, products and services, it is important that you know which company you will be dealing with. Please click here for further important information explaining what this means. This content is for informational and educational purposes only. This is not a recommendation regarding any investment or investment strategy. Any opinions expressed herein are those of the author and do not represent the views or opinions of TradeStation or any of its affiliates. Investing involves risks. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is no guarantee of future performance or success. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss equal to or greater than your entire investment regardless of which asset class you trade (equities, options, futures, or digital assets); therefore, you should not invest or risk money that you cannot afford to lose. Before trading any asset class, first read the relevant risk disclosure statements on the Important Documents page, found here: www.tradestation.com .
SP:SPX
by TradeStation
2
Fantom is on the way for a second Elliot Impulse Wave!! Not a Financial Advice !! FTMUSDT The last published idea is still in play. Although we overshoot over the first leg of Elliott Wave, we are coming down and preparing for the third leg. I can imagine the CPI report by fed on 12 Jan will bring us down to the buy zone. There I will add more fuel to my rocket :) I think the CPI report will be nothing burger but I expect SHF to dump the market to ride the wave of retail's uncertainty for at least half a day to a couple of days then we turn back to the upside again. I do not think we go lower than %1.5 Be careful and never invest more than you are willing to lose! That is the most important rule in investing.
Long
by GoatOfWallStreet
10