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Drawing Parallels from 1999-2000 Hiking Cycle During the 1998-2000 period we had a 20% correction in SP500 in the LH of 1998 followed by WTI bottoming in the low teens and 3 very fast rate cuts In the following 8 months up SP500 gained just shy of 50%, WTI gained 60% and the first 25bps rate hike come in 30th of June 1999 SP500 corrected to retest previous low, then second rate hike of 25bps come in on 24th Aug 1999 SP500 corrects again briefly trade 3% below previous low. 18th Oct 1999 will remain the low for the next 16 months ! From the first rate hike in June 1999 and the last in May 2000 (175bps) the SP500 gains 8% and WTI 160% The Market, both SP500 and WTI did not start breaking until Sep 2000 that is 14 months from the first rate hike. The parallel to today are March 2020 correction 35%, WTI bottoming in April, Rates cuts to 0.00 SP500 from Mar 2020 to Jan 2022 gains over 100%, WTI gains 300%, first rate hike in sight My conclusion is that the hiking cycle isn't going to break the market, Energy/Cost of living will be where the pay is going to come from. Lets put it that way during 1999-2000 hiking cycle the music never stopped it only slowed down it stopped 8 months later when there was no more BUYERS, I believe we will follow a similar path into 2022-2023
CME_MINI:ES1!
by ElReyChristophe
$SPX Inverse Head and ShouldersS&P500 15m TF Major Reversal Pattern confirmed with the textbook Inverse Head & Shoulders pattern printed on the 15m TF overnight in the US. Initially gapping down price almost hit the Fib Retracement 0.236 before the buying started which now has me thinking that inflation worries are now being priced into the market. Where to from here? A rally IMO would consist of a short-term consolidation (Sideways Movement) until Fed Meetings have agreed on an outcome regarding rates before a rally towards the Former Daily Support Zone which I now consider a Daily EQ (Equilibrium). A failure to break this level would likely see a retracement back towards the Fib Retracement 0.236 and a continuation towards Support. RSI on the Daily TF is indicating oversold and a momentum shift from here would most likely print Bearish weakness on MACD, which in turn may give us confluence of indication of a short/long-term Bullish rally. Alot is still unknown yet and I implore correct Risk Management and Position sizing in a time of unknown and volatility.
SP:SPX
by Trader_Johnni
SPX Technical Analysis 01/24/2022 - *Hammer Candlestick* [Daily]SPX found ground at 4231 Support. A beautiful hammer candlestick showed up on the daily chart today. A hammer candlestick indicates a potential price reversal to the upside. The price must start moving up following the hammer; this would confirm the reversal. RSI extremely oversold at 20. The Federal Reserves FOMC meeting tomorrow , and Wednesday should help provide further direction of the market. If dovish; expect a major rally. If hawkish; look out below. Updates to follow. *Trade the charts, not the noise that comes with corrections*
SP:SPX
by Cogg
US100 Institutes trapping retails for exit liquidityWe closed Friday at the local support pf 14600 and went through it like a knife through butter down to the next major support at 14400. If we do not hold that there is a high chance we dive into 14000. A Pattern that keeps repeating is that we see green candles in premarket, fooling average Joe that the dip has ended, average Joe buys in, and in the second half of the trading day institutes DUMP IT. That is, the retails SEND IT and later Institutes DUMP IT. Be very careful on green candles...false breakouts are a known tactic to attract exit liquidity. Only get in the market when it is very well clear that the tanking has ended.... hard to call but you know...
CAPITALCOM:US100
by GoatOfWallStreet
DJI WEEKLY - FIB RETRACEMENT - CORRECTION MODE - MEGAPHONEFollowing along with the MEGAPHONE theme from a previous chart taking the first touch of the MEGAPHONE TOP, as the top. Being a weekly chart, we need to see the weekly close below the RIBBON for CONFIRMATION that we are indeed heading into a period of CORRECTION. Given that the FEDERAL RESERVE will meet next week and have already stated that they will not move in to bolster the stock market I hazard a guess that the DOW will continue its current downward trend. As we all know the FED is slow to respond as that is the nature of the data cycle, they are at least 3-6 months behind real-world. We also need to keep in mind that the FED is an INFLATION fighting mode which means they will be announcing a rate rise of 25 basis points at the very least for a MARCH START, which the market has already priced in. My gut feeling is that they need to raise rates by 50 basis points to douse inflation, which the market has not priced in. We have a CHINESE NEW YEAR coming up and harsh WARNINGS FROM the WEF and DAVOS. Take care and stay safe. NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE
TVC:DJIShort
by alphamindset
USD/JPY dips ahead of Japanese CPIThe Japanese yen has edged higher for a second straight day. In the North American session, USD/JPY is trading at the 114.00 line. In economic news, Japan releases December inflation data and the BoJ will publish the minutes of its December meeting. In the US, economic releases were mixed. Unemployment claims jumped to 287 thousand, above the forecast of 220 thousand and up from the previous release of 231 thousand. The Philly Fed Manufacturing Index rose to 23.2, up from 15.4 prior and above the consensus of 20.0 points. Inflation in Japan is moving higher, although at a much more modest clip than is the case in the US or UK. Core CPI, which had been hovering close to zero for months, surprised to the upside in November with a 0.5%, up from 0.1% prior. This was its highest level since February 2020. BoJ policymakers aren't losing sleep over surging inflation, but after decades of deflation, rising prices are a novelty for the central bank, as well for businesses and consumers. The BoJ has no plans to shift from its ultra-easy stance, and the bank kept policy intact at this week's policy meeting. Still, it was significant that at the meeting, the bank revised upwards its inflation forecast, which hasn't occurred since 2014.  For the fiscal year starting in April, the BoJ is projecting inflation of 1.1% up from the 0.9% gain it forecast in October. This is noteworthy because the BoJ is acknowledging that inflation could overshoot its projections, something we never saw in the years of deflation. Unlike their counterparts at the Bank of Japan, Fed policymakers are focused on surging inflation and how to contain it. A rate hike is looking increasingly likely in March, but it's unclear just how much of a push the Fed has in mind. We've seen a measured approach of 0.25% hikes for years, but with inflation running at a 40-year high, there is talk of a dramatic 0.50% hike. The Fed is clearly sensitive to market conditions, so odds are that it will avoid a huge 0.50% jump in rates. Still, unusual times may require unusual methods, so it will certainly be interesting to follow the Fed in the weeks ahead. There is resistance at 115.54, followed by 116.88 USDJPY has support at 113.18 and 112.16
by OANDA
3
Oil is climbing the stairway to Heaven. We are in an interesting world where price signals are all over the place due to the manipulation of markets by governments. With inflation driving the market it would seem realistic for oil to break out into a new high. The question is, do we have a massive market sell-off that drives many asset prices down as the acts like the 12-year-old threatening to run away from home? Do they actually do it? Is it all talk? Only time will tell but be watching for a pivot back to QE or fewer rate hikes in the future. We all know that there are elections coming up the FED is likely to be put in place in order to make things go as smoothly as possible. The purple box is a nearby resistance zone and the red line is heavy top resistance. We have been playing XLE for quite some time with incredible returns and a good dividend. Fed: " But MOM! You said we can play outside until the street lights come on!"
TVC:USOILLong
by DefyingFinance
1
Aussie rises ahead of key employment dataThe Australian dollar has reversed directions and pushed above the 72 line. In the North American session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.7224, up 0.54% on the day. Australia will release December employment numbers in Thursday's Asian session. The economy is expected to have created 43 thousand new jobs, which would be a modest gain compared to the monster spike of 366 thousand in November. The market is also projecting that the unemployment rate will tick lower to 4.5%, from the 4.6% beforehand.  A strong release would likely give a boost to the Australian dollar. Earlier today, Australia's Westpac Consumer Sentiment for January disappointed with a reading of -2.0%, marking a second straight decline. Consumers are wary that the spike in Omicron cases could trigger further lockdowns. The number of hospital cases has swelled and on Tuesday, Australia recorded 77 deaths from Covid, the highest one-day total since the pandemic began. An ANZ report last week noted that the Australian consumer is suffering from an "Omicron malaise in spending" and that could mean trouble for the Australian economy, as consumer spending is a key driver of growth. The major banks are planning to revise downward their growth forecasts and Commbank has already lowered its Q1 forecast QoQ from 2.3% to just 1.0%. In the US, there are growing concerns that the Federal Reserve will accelerate the tightening of its policy. This has been reflected in an upswing in US Treasury yields. The 10-year rate climbed above 1.80% on Tuesday, a 2-year high, and hit 1.90% earlier today, but has retreated to 1.83%. The 10-year rate hasn't been above the symbolic 2% level since July 2019 but could reach that line shortly. Most analysts are projecting three or four rate hikes in 2022, but the Fed may have more in store - Jamie Dimon, CEO of JP Morgan, made headlines last week when he projected the Fed could hike up to six or seven times this year. There is resistance at 0.7304 and 0.7392 AUD/USD has support at 0.7139 and 0.7062
by OANDA
Pound shrugs off sharp UK dataThe British pound has posted very slight gains on Friday. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.3720, up 0.09% on the day. The pound is yawning despite better than expected UK data today. GDP jumped 0.9% m/m in November, above the consensus of 0.4%, while Manufacturing Production rose 1.1% m/m, crushing the estimate of 0.2%. Both readings were above the October releases, indicating that the UK recovery continues. GDP for Q4 is expected to reach or surpass the pre-Covid level (Q4 2019), barring a disappointing December GDP report. We continue to see a rotation out of US dollars this week, with the British pound and other majors racking up impressive gains of around 1 percent. The driver behind the US dollar's weakness has been elevated risk appetite, which has not waned despite exploding Omicron cases, a soft nonfarm payrolls report and a hawkish Federal Reserve. The markets appear to have an answer for all of these developments. The Omicron wave has not wreaked havoc on the global economy, US wage growth is strong, and Fed Chair Jerome Powell is confident that red-hot inflation in the US will ease during the year. Still, risk sentiment can change quickly, and I would not be surprised to see a US dollar comeback in the near term if Omicron is more damaging than anticipated or if inflation heads even higher. Prime Minister Boris Johnson is under intense criticism after revelations that his staff held parties during the height of the Covid lockdowns. One party was apparently held the night before the funeral of Queen Elizabeth's husband, and a poignant photo of the Queen sitting alone during the funeral has made Party-Gate look even worse. The latest political crisis has not made a dent in the pound's upswing, perhaps because Johnson is no stranger to controversy or an indication that investors are more concerned about inflation and omicron rather than partying at 10 Downing Street. There are support lines at 1.3482 and 1.3372. GBP/USD continues to test resistance at 1.3708. This is followed by resistance at 1.3818
by OANDA
2
BTC Moment of ClarityFinally some market structure... Bullish - Inflation happening in real time. Where will people store their money? - Web 3.0, Metaverse, NFT, DAO's, Country Adoption. - A,B,C,D,E Pattern Completion Bearish - Federal reserve implementing deflationary measures. Interest Rate to Increase. Higher tax. More Regulations. - A,B,C,D,E Pattern not bullish wave structure. - Many failed harmonic patterns, divergance, trend line breaks. Neutral - 40k an are of historical support / resistance What will the future bring? Will this pattern be invalidated?
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by AthenticWhale1
3
BTC reacting on 40 Year high inflationAfter testing the 44k resistance level, BTC looks like it is taking a breather before continuing on the upside in a stair manner. On the 15 Min timeframe we can observe clearly that we are in a well defined range and we are now more or less in the middle of that range, the side breakout of this range in this timeframe will define the 1h and 4h trend for the next period. The daily sees some clear fib levels being confluencial with resistance levels , notably: - 0.236 confluential with VPVR of the last large move @ $46.900 - 0.382 high side of the previous range @ $50.800 - 0.618 @ $57.700 The wavetrend formation, MFI and Vwap that you can see on the bottom right of the chart scream bull. The wavetrend is on the daily chart. Fundamentally, the whole market Stocks+crypto has reacted well to the inflation numbers announced by the FED yesterday. Continuation would be logical but don't forget that we have some strong resistances above us. The closest one would be the 46.900 - 47000 level where we can expect a small rejection.
Long
by SublimeTraders
EUR/USD to remain under pressureThe EUR/USD trading pair once again met resistance near the 1.1375 mark this morning. This level has been a sideways trend resistance since November 2021 and has already beaten the price down 4 times. The price growth lows is interesting. Every attempt to push the price down is getting weaker, and the dynamic support line is aimed at the north. It is likely that against the background of liquidity compression and the growth of price lows, the price is preparing for an impulsive growth. A potential rate hike by the US Federal Reserve in March 2022 has already been included in the price. For this reason, the euro may now begin an active recovery after rebounding from the support zone around 1.1310. It is supported by the key economic numbers coming from the US and the Eurozone, such as inflation expectations for the new year. The next target of EURUSD is a retest of the resistance level near 1.1375. According to Nomura analyst Jordan Rochester, it is expected that the euro will remain under pressure in the first quarter, telling DailyForex: “We expect the euro to remain under pressure in the first quarter with a lower trade surplus, stronger use of Covid-19 restrictions and higher interest rates from the Fed in raising rates in March. The risks in the view are that trade succeeds in the fourth quarter of 2021, and January tends to be the time when agreed deals break down.” The EUR/USD will need to get back above the 1.1500 level to have a chance to develop sustainable upside momentum in 2022.
by Capitalcom
21
BTC Correction Cycle end Soon!!!According to Frost and Prechter Elliot waves, both progressive and correction waves are seems end already and BTC wondering begin a new cycle or not! there is a possibility that BTC's new Progressive wave start soon. by Observing ATR(Average True Range), the pattern is similar to what we have on 29th Sep 2021. Price is exactly on a strong resistance point and with Inflation data which be released on Wednesday, Markets would get out of spider's web. SUM UP: I'm still very bullish at this moment and even we face another correction however we walked most of the road to the correction.
Long
by behzadjl
False Breakout in the S&P 500?The S&P 500 made new highs above 4800 early this year, but now the move may be looking like a false breakout. Notice how the rally between December 21 and 27 happened against a backdrop of waning volume. This isn’t a surprise given the Christmas holiday. But then when volume did resume last week, it occurred as price dropped. Several potential reversal patterns followed the yuletide surge. There was a doji on December 29, outside days on December 30 and January 3, then another doji. Third, notice how MACD rang in the New Year with a lower high, even as the index made a slightly higher high. That’s potential “bearish divergence.” Next, SPX returned to its 50-day simple moving average (SMA) less than three weeks after bouncing at that line. Its previous rebound was also close in time. How often can prices test that support before breaking it? Finally, our MA Test Bars Since script shows that the index has gone 386 sessions without touching its 200-day SMA. It’s not a record but it is long by historical standards. With monetary policy tightening and investors shedding big tech, will traders wait for a deeper pullback toward the 200-day SMA? TradeStation is a pioneer in the trading industry, providing access to stocks, options, futures and cryptocurrencies. See our Overview for more. Important Information TradingView is not affiliated with TradeStation Securities Inc. or its affiliates. TradeStation Securities, Inc., TradeStation Crypto, Inc., and TradeStation Technologies, Inc. are each wholly owned subsidiaries of TradeStation Group, Inc., all operating, and providing products and services, under the TradeStation brand and trademark. When applying for, or purchasing, accounts, subscriptions, products and services, it is important that you know which company you will be dealing with. Please click here for further important information explaining what this means. This content is for informational and educational purposes only. This is not a recommendation regarding any investment or investment strategy. Any opinions expressed herein are those of the author and do not represent the views or opinions of TradeStation or any of its affiliates. Investing involves risks. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is no guarantee of future performance or success. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss equal to or greater than your entire investment regardless of which asset class you trade (equities, options, futures, or digital assets); therefore, you should not invest or risk money that you cannot afford to lose. Before trading any asset class, first read the relevant risk disclosure statements on the Important Documents page, found here: www.tradestation.com .
SP:SPX
by TradeStation
1
EURUSD, Bearish Flag paternThe downside flag on the EURUSD currency Given the divergence between the European Central Bank and the US Federal Reserve, the euro is likely to experience lower prices against the dollar. Despite the disappointing NFP figure, analysts believe that the Federal Reserve will continue to tighten market conditions this year. This will be achieved by ending quantitative easing policies and then raising interest rates. Analysts at banks such as Barclays believe that the Federal Reserve will increase in March this year. Forecast for EURUSD According to the daily chart, we see that the EUR / USD pair has been in a volatile range over the past few months. As a result, the pair has moved between the 25-day and 50-day exponential moving averages. A closer look shows that the chart forms a descending flag pattern. The price is currently slightly lower than the top of the flag pattern. Therefore, it is likely that the pair will decline in the coming days as investors predict a divergence between the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank. The information of the Ziwox terminal is in the same direction. -Link The fundamental direction of this pair is declining Analysts and financial institutions forecast a 67% decline. Their retailers are more focused on buying this asset, which further reinforces this downward scenario. This pattern of the flag is confirmed by breaking area 1.12637. Be successful and profitable.
Short
by Alisabbaghi