Get started

Federalreserve

The Federal Reserve Effect on AssetsHello friends, today I am showing you six charts - US Dollar (DXY), 10 Year Treasury Interest Rate, Gold, Bitcoin (BTCUSD), WTI Crude Oil and S&P 500 Index (SPX). These are some of the biggest traded assets in the world. The vertical lines on each chart represents the beginning of the month. Over the three months since September 2021, the US Federal Reserve has been pointing to a reduction in balance sheet and dropping in hints of what the are considering (such as tapering, rate hikes and so on). This has directly impacted assets classes across the world as shown in these charts. There is no doubt that interest rates will go up if the Fed is openly saying they want to raise rates so it is with no doubt that the 10 year treasury is up. With that though oil has also been going up while other asset classes like Bitcoin, Gold and S&P 500 are going down. Interestingly the S&P 500 Index has not suffered as bad as Bitcoin has even though many consider them correlated in some way. This may be an indicator of what is to come soon. Lastly, the US Dollar seems to be getting stronger over the past few months and from my prior analysis of it (see ideas below), there is a strong potential for it to keep going higher. 2022 into 2023 will be a surely interesting year with what the Federal Reserve is looking to do. There are many other asset classes I didn't review on this analysis. If you want to drop in others, feel free to do so. What are your opinions on this? If you enjoy my ideas, feel free to like it and drop in a comment. I love reading your comments below. Disclosure: This is just my opinion and not any type of financial advice. I enjoy charting and discussing technical analysis. Don't trade based on my advice. Do your own research!
SP:SPX
by MillionaireEconomics
23
Canadian dollar calm ahead of job reportsThe Canadian dollar is on a holding pattern ahead of key Canadian and US employment reports later today. Currently, USD/CAD is trading just above the 1.27 line. It could be an active North American session for the Canadian dollar, with the release of Canada's job creation numbers and the US nonfarm payrolls. Expectations are low for the Canadian data, with a forecast of just 27 thousand new jobs in December, after a robust gain of 153 thousand in November. There is plenty of anticipation around the nonfarm payroll release, however, especially after the monster ADP release earlier this week. The ADP gain of 807 thousand was double the consensus of 400 thousand, but historically, ADP has not been a reliable gauge of nonfarm payrolls. The forecast for NFP is around 425 thousand, and a release below 250 thousand or above 550 thousand could shake up the US dollar. Investors are starting to get nervous now that a Fed rate hike could be only a few months away, and the timeline for the first rate hike could be impacted by the strength of the nonfarm payroll release. A strong gain would strengthen the likelihood of a March hike, while a soft NFP could delay lift-off of a hike, which could lead to a rotation out of US dollars. In determining when to start hiking, policymakers will be looking not only at the strength of the recovery but also at inflationary pressures. The Fed has abandoned its view that inflation is 'transitory' and this week's FOMC minutes indicated that policymakers viewed inflation risks to the upside and are also concerned about the very tight job market. The minutes also stated that the Fed is considering scaling back its balance sheet as another brake on the economy. The markets took note, with 10-year bonds rising above 1.70% and CME FedWatch pegging the likelihood of a March hike above 70%. USD/CAD is testing resistance at 1.2784. Above, there is resistance at 1.2929 There are support levels at 1.2558 and 1.2477
by OANDA
Have Bonds Bottomed??Bonds have stabilized at lows, and have started to form a range, as we suggested yesterday. We have started to find value just above 128'10, and below 128'24, the exact range we identified in the last report. After plummeting two full handles since the beginning of 2022 it was time for ZN to reach some sort of equilibrium before its next move. From here we expect value to continue to form at current levels. A relief rally is not out of the question, especially after such a selloff. If so, we could make a run for the 129 handle again. There is a large vacuum zone above to 129'11, which should be considered a max upper bound at this point. The floor seems to be 128'10 for now. The Kovach OBV is still quite bearish, so there is little hope for a genuine bull rally any time soon.
CBOT:ZN1!
by quantguy
Home Depot: A Deeper Retest Needed?Home Depot has been ripping higher as Americans spend on their homes. But now the chart may be pointing to sideways movement. First, consider the large bearish engulfing day on January 3. It followed a similar candle on December 8, which may indicate sellers are active above $410. Next, the two peaks have created a downward-sloping channel. The bottom of the pattern roughly corresponds with the $375-379 area where HD gapped higher on November 16. Will it fill that gap? Third, the lower high could suggest an ABC correction is starting. That could also point toward a deeper retest. Finally, the macro tide may be turning away from HD as the Federal Reserve grows increasingly hawkish. TradeStation is a pioneer in the trading industry, providing access to stocks, options, futures and cryptocurrencies. See our Overview for more. Important Information TradingView is not affiliated with TradeStation Securities Inc. or its affiliates. TradeStation Securities, Inc., TradeStation Crypto, Inc., and TradeStation Technologies, Inc. are each wholly owned subsidiaries of TradeStation Group, Inc., all operating, and providing products and services, under the TradeStation brand and trademark. When applying for, or purchasing, accounts, subscriptions, products and services, it is important that you know which company you will be dealing with. Please click here for further important information explaining what this means. This content is for informational and educational purposes only. This is not a recommendation regarding any investment or investment strategy. Any opinions expressed herein are those of the author and do not represent the views or opinions of TradeStation or any of its affiliates. Investing involves risks. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is no guarantee of future performance or success. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss equal to or greater than your entire investment regardless of which asset class you trade (equities, options, futures, or digital assets); therefore, you should not invest or risk money that you cannot afford to lose. Before trading any asset class, first read the relevant risk disclosure statements on the Important Documents page, found here: www.tradestation.com .
NYSE:HD
by TradeStation
2
Pfizer (PFE) to continue its BULL run in 2022!Fundamental Analysis Pfizer, Inc. has consistently been one of the largest pharmaceutical companies in the world for the better part of the last two decades. The company has a remarkable history going back all the way to the year 1849, when Pfizer was founded in Brooklyn, New York. The large cap pharma giant has developed a well-balanced and deep portfolio of products in key areas like Inflammation and Immunology, Internal Medicine, Oncology, Rare Disease, Vaccines etc. However, it seems that as a result of the success of Pfizer's vaccine COVID-19 treatments, many investors have forgotten about the rest of Pfizer's business and how successful it continues to be. It is true that the sales of its COVID-19 vaccine ($36 billion in 2021 alone) have managed to nearly double Pfizer's annual revenue from $41.9 billion in 2020 to over $78 billion in 2021. What's even more important is that the strong sales growth has also translated into higher profits for the company as its profit margins before interest and taxes, referred to as EBIT margin, have risen over the past year. This shows that Pfizer has managed its R&D and all other fixed and operating costs associated with development, production and distribution efficiently, thus improving the profitability ratios of the company. The large cap pharma giant has also managed to almost triple the size of its free cash flow to more than $29 billion over the past twelve months compared to only $11.6 billion in 2020. More free cash flow makes a business more robust, giving Pfizer more money to invest in research and development of new products, pay more in dividends, or strengthen its balance sheet. The company currently has a total of 94 drugs in the pipeline spread across critical treatment areas like Inflammation and Immunology, Internal Medicine, Oncology, Rare Disease, Vaccines etc. all waiting regulatory approval. - Phase 1(27); Phase 2 (29); Phase 3 (29); Registration (9) Looking at the outstanding track record of Pfizer's drug development capabilities, we can easily state that the company will continue to be a leader in the sector that it operates in. Macro view The equity markets in the US are currently undergoing a process of meaningful repricing and re-valuation of what companies are actually worth, as everyone is getting ready for the Federal Reserve to start raising interest rates in the US and tighten its monetary policy. In a rising interest rate environment, investors tend to move away from expensive high-growth stocks trading at unreasonably high P/E and P/S valuations as the tighter monetary policy environment makes it much more difficult and more expensive for such companies to borrow and invest capital and produce the high earnings growth that investors expect from them. Well-established large cap Healthcare and Biotech stocks are considered to be least correlated with the monetary policy situation in the country as they tend to trade more on FDA drug approvals and drug-related announcements rather than actual earnings per share. Most of the leaders in this space also have a substantial pricing power, as people using their medicines are doing so because they need them and because the drugs are helping them get better. Thus, owning Healthcare and Biotech stocks in a rising inflation and interest rate environment is a defensive play that could end up paying off big time, as stocks in these sectors are rather volatile. Technical Analysis The stock has experienced a volatile retracement from its $61 all-time highs and is currently in a corrective phase. However, the uptrend is still intact as the price is well above both the strong horizontal support at $51 and the upward sloping diagonal support (blue line) at $44. Furthermore, the stock is trading above its 5, 20, 50, 200 EMAs, which is also a bullish continuation signal. We expect buyers to start coming in around the $52-53 level, thus establishing the next higher high. Once that is done, the stock will re-test its ATH at around $61 in Q1 of this year. The broad market framework, together with the many positive company related developments in the coming months are expected to bring enough momentum to the stock in order for it to break its previous ATH and set a new one sometime in Q2. Our target for the stock in H1 of 2022 is around the $68 level, which is roughly 30% higher from the current levels. Follow and Copy us on eToro for more detailed market analyses, profitable trading ideas and a consistent portfolio performance. [ b] Sincerely, @DowExperts
NYSE:PFELong
by DowExperts
BTCUSD - Two Forecasts.I like to take bar patterns and compare them to what has happened before, to try and see where the market is taking us. It's just a manual way of doing what machine-learning algorithms perform. With the abysmal performance of Bitcoin lately I see one of two things: Using traditional analysis, there's a possibility that a very large (around 4 months long) teacup pattern is forming. If so, we're just about at the bottom of it now. More likely, using pattern matching, I see a repetition of the March thru May 2021 Bitcoin crash - albeit rescaled to a shorter timeframe and lesser peak/valley difference. If it weren't for the terrible economy (thanks to politicians who love spending other people's money & the idiots at the Fed), we should have been pushing past $100k by now. Hopefully, one of these two forecasts plays out.🤞 If it doesn't it could very well be the end of crypto as we know it. The economy sucks for multiple reasons, but the main factor appears to be a deliberate crashing of the US dollar ... You see, the past 20 years or so of Congressional Spending Bills, together with the Federal Reserve have printed multi-trillions of dollars - creating money they did not have to spend. (This is a de-facto tax on US taxpayers, because it devalues the money that we all have.) Real Money Supply: FRED:M2REAL Federal Debt: FRED:GFDEBTN The Biden admin is, I believe, deliberately pushing us over the edge by spending 10-20 trillion more dollars (creating them into existence via the Federal Reserve ponzi scheme). Instead of demanding a balanced budget, reigning in the out-of-control spending, selling assets and reducing debt, they instead are intent on squeezing out every last drop before they push us over the cliff . Now, the hole they've dug is so colossal, the only way they can get us out of it is by crashing the dollar - which devalues the current debt they've created. They regard it as "Free Money" - ie: "It's going down in flames, so we might as well spend it like crazy!", ignoring the fact that us plebs have to pay for their utter incompetence and complete disregard for US Citizens , because along with the US dollar they're also crashing our entire Savings, 401K's, IRA's, Pension Funds, etc. !! The only things that will increase along with inflation are tangible goods. This is why there are so many corporations/entities trying to gobble up the housing market. Property is one of the few things that will increase along with hyper-inflation created by a US dollar crash. "You'll own nothing and be happy" they tell us. Funny how politicians always come out on top. 🤬 Sigh. Let's Go Brandon! FRED:M2REAL FRED:GFDEBTN
GEMINI:BTCUSDLong
by steveday72
USDCAD- getting ready to explode before FED decisionHere is the nice "inverse head and shoulders" pattern for USDCAD. Opening a long position looks logical with the safe stop loss place. Also, there is FED interest rate decision tomorrow. I expect them to increase the rates. To sum up: USD LONG XAG SHORT XAU SHORT CRYPTOCURRENCIES SHORT is expected by me. *Note that this forecasting is based on the news coming from the FED. Put your stop loss to be prepared for the exact opposite scenario. Stay Safe!
Long
by icaglar7
Swiss franc snoozingThe Swiss franc flexed some muscle in the days leading into Christmas, but the currency is almost unchanged this week, trading around 0.9170. The Omicron variant continues to spread as countries scramble to deal with the newest wave of Covid. The good news is that most reports have shown that Omicron is believed to be far milder than Delta, which hopefully means that this latest Covid wave will not cause as much devastation as Delta. However, there is no question that Omicron is far more contagious than Delta and poses a serious health hazard to unvaccinated people, which could potentially overload hospitals. The markets are extremely reactionary now, especially this week with many market participants on holiday and the markets marked by illiquidity. We are seeing sharp moves from risk currencies such as the Australian dollar, while the US dollar and Swiss franc, both of which are safe-haven assets, have showed limited movement. It's a light economic calendar this week, but there are two Swiss events that could have an impact on the movement of the Swiss franc - Credit Suisse Economic Expectations on Wednesday and the KOF Economic Barometer on Thursday. The uncertainty surrounding Omicron has captivated the market's attention, overshadowing other issues such as a Federal Reserve rate hike. The equity markets have been on the rise, buoyed by reports that Omicron is less severe than Delta and may not impact the US economy as much as feared. The US consumer is spending and unemployment is at low levels, which has kept the recovery going strong. Fed Watch has priced in a 53% chance of a 25-bps hike in March, and the odds of a rate hike will surely change based on the impact of Omicron on the US economy. There is weak support at 0.9161, followed by support at 0.9247 USD/CHF faces resistance at 0.9247 and 0.9294
by OANDA
EURUSD ShortHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring EURUSD for a selling opportunity around around 1.128 zone. We have 1.123 as a first station for scalping lovers, and 1.09 zone for swing traders. one of the reasons i'm thinking about this trade is the bullish momentum i've noticed on DXY chart. and fed Powell being Hawkish in order to control inflation is an important factor to take in consideration for USD bulls. if you decided to go swing on this trade please wait for the perfect entry, and also use proper risk management, because swing movements are violent comparing to the movements in the short term. If you have any questions or looking for any update please don't hesitate to comment your opinion below. Joe.
Short
by JoeChampion
4
Is the Metaverse a Hedge for Inflation? (ft. Dogecoin) A little while ago I argued that virtual estate and real estate were inversely correlated -- as seen in the Evergrande example in China where Evergrande stock and MANA coin criss-crossed each other in terms of its ROI. It's yet to be seen how this will play out in the US real estate market but it seems likely that we'll start to see similar patterns emerge as time goes on. The US market may take longer to unravel since it's a bigger apparatus with a lot more moving parts -- talking about it in a coherent way in itself is often a challenge. But there's been a shift in tone from both DC and the media in regards to inflation in the last week, which may be a sign that things are starting to move forward. There's basically two different scenarios that could play out in the current US economy's trajectory -- hyperinflation, or an economic slowdown brought on by the Federal Reserve after they increase interest rates significantly. (Right now the former scenario seems more likely, but that's TBD.) Either way, crypto will probably end up doing well. More details in the video itself. Also as an aside, I also argued that Dogecoin could be an inflation hedge against the crypto market itself. We saw a weird blip this week where the coin pushed itself upwards a little bit, running counter to all of the other coins out there. Will this trend continue? We'll have to wait and see.
COINBASE:MANAUSD
by RyanTanaka
2
NEXT LEG LOWER FOR THE DOLLAR!2021 saw the U.S. dollar strengthen in anticipation of the Federal Reserve potentially raising interest rates, a possibility which became a reality yesterday as up to 3 hikes were announced to take place in 2022! BUY THE RUMOUR, SELL THE FACT! FUNDAMENTALS: The odds that the Federal Reserve can successfully reduce its balance sheet to even pre-2020 levels with the amount of global debt in existence is precisely 0%. A controlled deflation would crash every leveraged market in existence and precipitate an unprecedentedly large financial crisis. It is possible that the Federal Reserve will hike its official rate while continuing to inject trillions in permanent and temporary liquidity, essentially bailing out the financial system and global economy from the consequences of these higher interest rates. TECHNICALS: The DXY is over-extended from both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, and is primed for a correction. The DXY is encountering heavy resistance at the 0.5 FIB level, and has printed FOUR DOJIS on the weekly chart, an extremely rare and reliable signal of a pending reversal. DXY volatility is extremely low and is primed for a reversal, which is a bearish signal.
TVC:DXYShort
by UnknownUnicorn4195243
1
Ethereum Recovers $4K... Can it Sustain?? 🤔Ethereum got a huge lift from the FOMC statement yesterday. We rallied from lows at $3646, finding support at our level exactly. We've since regained the $4K handle, if but barely. We appear to be hanging on by a thread at support at $4020. Two red triangles on the KRI suggest resistance here. The Kovach OBV has turned sharply bullish, but is leveling off suggesting that we may be oversold at this point, due for a correction. That FOMC rally was enough to get us back to $4K, but it might not be enough to keep us there. Watch for support at $3861, then $3646 again if things turn south. If we can muster another rally, then $4258 is the next target.
BITSTAMP:ETHUSDShort
by quantguy
What the FOMC Statement Means for BitcoinBitcoin rallied off the FOMC statement yesterday which was a first for crypto, and confirms the maturity of this product. Larger institutional investment and the influence of derivatives on the crypto market are the likely reasons for this rally, which demonstrate that macro events effecting traditional market instruments like stocks, bonds, forex, etc. are now of importance to crypto. Bitcoin rallied from lows $46.2K to just below our level at $49.7K, before a red triangle on the KRI confirmed resistance. Currently we are ranging, establishing value in the high $48K handle. The price action should remain confined to the $40K's, with trading choppy and illiquid into the new year. The best trading strategy here seems to be to wait for lower levels and accumulate on dips. The Kovach OBV has soared with the rally, but has leveled off as BTC established value. Watch $49.7K and $50.8K to continue to provide resistance and $46.2K to provide support from below, with $45K being a floor price for now.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by quantguy
DXY Steadies in the 96 HandleThe US dollar index soared with the FOMC statement yesterday, but has since cooled off, feeling out lower levels. We seem to have broken through a trendline connecting lows on this lower bound, but appear to have found support at 96.24, the lowest technical level in the 96 handle, and intersection of our trendline. We should have strong support from 96.24, but if we break below it watch the vacuum zone below to 95.82. With the FOMC behind us, there won't be much more data events this week to drive prices, so anticipate ranging in the 96's. We have several technical levels above, ending at 96.65, which we expect to be a ceiling for now.
TVC:DXYLong
by quantguy
USDCAD's Bearish Reversal Now ConfirmedThe USDCAD started falling after FED's December policy decision. The reversal was elucidated by the breakdown below the ascending channel and the 38.2 per cent Fibonacci retracement level at 1.28117. The next target for the new downtrend is the 61.8 per cent Fibonacci at 1.27336, with the intermediate support level at 1.27500. The latter is underscored by the crossover between the 100-day MA (in blue) and 200-day MA (in orange). If the price action manages to close below the two, the next target for the downtrend would be the previous swing low at 1.26100.
Short
by Trendsharks
The Final Sprint (16 December 2021)Doubling the pace of QE tapering The Federal Reserve ended its final monetary policy meeting for the year with a bang. While holding interest rate unchanged at the target range of 0-0.25%, the central bank doubled the pace of quantitative easing (QE) tapering from the current $15 billion ($10 billion of Treasury securities + $5 billion of agency mortgage-backed securities) per month to $30 billion ($20 billion of Treasury securities + $10 billion of agency mortgage-backed securities) per month starting from January 2022. The decision to speed up tapering comes as the central bank felt that “the economy no longer needs increasing amounts of policy support”, Fed Chairman Powell explained during the press conference. He also mentioned that the recent pace of inflation is “uncomfortably high” and employment in the U.S. is making substantial progress towards the central bank’s maximum employment goal. And so, the committee felt that the time has come to progressively withdraw from the policy enacted in response to the pandemic. Hence, in March 2022, the Fed’s massive bond buying programme will come to a complete halt, opening the way for interest rate hikes. Dot plot indicates aggressive rate hikes for 2022 In the released quarterly projection materials, the dot plot shows a big shift in the dots upwards, indicating that more members are now expecting interest rate to be at a higher level for the next few years. Specifically, all 18 members of the committee expect at least one rate hike while 12 of them expect three rate hikes in 2022. Also, 11 members expected that interest rate will return to the pre-pandemic level of 1.5-1.75% in 2023, contrasting from the previous projection materials that only three members expect so. The sense of urgency for more rate hikes come as inflation has escalated to a near 40-year high level. Persistent inflation Ever since consumer prices set new highs in decades for two consecutive months, the Fed has changed its view that inflation is transitory. The central bank’s Chief is now acknowledging that inflation “may be more persistent” and is having an upward pressure on inflation expectations. It was also mentioned in the rate statement that supply and demand imbalances have led to “elevated levels of inflation”. Thus, the Fed has revised PCE inflation expectations upwards for 2022. Moving forward, we can expect the Federal Reserve to wind up its QE during the first quarter of 2022 since good progress towards its dual mandate has been made – annual inflation has more than doubled the central bank’s target for several months and the rate towards maximum employment has been fast and is expected to continue in the near future.
TVC:DXY
by GH_Lee
Divergence spotted on Bitcoin! After Feds. Daily chart!Just after the feds meeting on tuesday dec 14, i anticipated a buy the news opportunity but decided to wait untill today( dec 15). I went to the BTC/ETH daily chart and tried to spot potential buying opportunities and to my greatest amaze for the first time in my short crypto trading life i had spotted a bullish divergence on the RSI oscillator on the daily chart. After realizing that the market is coming from a recent dip and a potential bull run next year january, i am considering buying the "dollar cost averaging" style and probably waiting till the end of the week to examine the full divergence set up on all possible time frames for more accurate confirmation. Hopes these helps?
Long
by Jezzz_