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Pound shrugs off sharp UK dataThe British pound has posted very slight gains on Friday. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.3720, up 0.09% on the day. The pound is yawning despite better than expected UK data today. GDP jumped 0.9% m/m in November, above the consensus of 0.4%, while Manufacturing Production rose 1.1% m/m, crushing the estimate of 0.2%. Both readings were above the October releases, indicating that the UK recovery continues. GDP for Q4 is expected to reach or surpass the pre-Covid level (Q4 2019), barring a disappointing December GDP report. We continue to see a rotation out of US dollars this week, with the British pound and other majors racking up impressive gains of around 1 percent. The driver behind the US dollar's weakness has been elevated risk appetite, which has not waned despite exploding Omicron cases, a soft nonfarm payrolls report and a hawkish Federal Reserve. The markets appear to have an answer for all of these developments. The Omicron wave has not wreaked havoc on the global economy, US wage growth is strong, and Fed Chair Jerome Powell is confident that red-hot inflation in the US will ease during the year. Still, risk sentiment can change quickly, and I would not be surprised to see a US dollar comeback in the near term if Omicron is more damaging than anticipated or if inflation heads even higher. Prime Minister Boris Johnson is under intense criticism after revelations that his staff held parties during the height of the Covid lockdowns. One party was apparently held the night before the funeral of Queen Elizabeth's husband, and a poignant photo of the Queen sitting alone during the funeral has made Party-Gate look even worse. The latest political crisis has not made a dent in the pound's upswing, perhaps because Johnson is no stranger to controversy or an indication that investors are more concerned about inflation and omicron rather than partying at 10 Downing Street. There are support lines at 1.3482 and 1.3372. GBP/USD continues to test resistance at 1.3708. This is followed by resistance at 1.3818
by OANDA
2
BTC Moment of ClarityFinally some market structure... Bullish - Inflation happening in real time. Where will people store their money? - Web 3.0, Metaverse, NFT, DAO's, Country Adoption. - A,B,C,D,E Pattern Completion Bearish - Federal reserve implementing deflationary measures. Interest Rate to Increase. Higher tax. More Regulations. - A,B,C,D,E Pattern not bullish wave structure. - Many failed harmonic patterns, divergance, trend line breaks. Neutral - 40k an are of historical support / resistance What will the future bring? Will this pattern be invalidated?
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by AthenticWhale1
3
BTC reacting on 40 Year high inflationAfter testing the 44k resistance level, BTC looks like it is taking a breather before continuing on the upside in a stair manner. On the 15 Min timeframe we can observe clearly that we are in a well defined range and we are now more or less in the middle of that range, the side breakout of this range in this timeframe will define the 1h and 4h trend for the next period. The daily sees some clear fib levels being confluencial with resistance levels , notably: - 0.236 confluential with VPVR of the last large move @ $46.900 - 0.382 high side of the previous range @ $50.800 - 0.618 @ $57.700 The wavetrend formation, MFI and Vwap that you can see on the bottom right of the chart scream bull. The wavetrend is on the daily chart. Fundamentally, the whole market Stocks+crypto has reacted well to the inflation numbers announced by the FED yesterday. Continuation would be logical but don't forget that we have some strong resistances above us. The closest one would be the 46.900 - 47000 level where we can expect a small rejection.
Long
by SublimeTraders
EUR/USD to remain under pressureThe EUR/USD trading pair once again met resistance near the 1.1375 mark this morning. This level has been a sideways trend resistance since November 2021 and has already beaten the price down 4 times. The price growth lows is interesting. Every attempt to push the price down is getting weaker, and the dynamic support line is aimed at the north. It is likely that against the background of liquidity compression and the growth of price lows, the price is preparing for an impulsive growth. A potential rate hike by the US Federal Reserve in March 2022 has already been included in the price. For this reason, the euro may now begin an active recovery after rebounding from the support zone around 1.1310. It is supported by the key economic numbers coming from the US and the Eurozone, such as inflation expectations for the new year. The next target of EURUSD is a retest of the resistance level near 1.1375. According to Nomura analyst Jordan Rochester, it is expected that the euro will remain under pressure in the first quarter, telling DailyForex: “We expect the euro to remain under pressure in the first quarter with a lower trade surplus, stronger use of Covid-19 restrictions and higher interest rates from the Fed in raising rates in March. The risks in the view are that trade succeeds in the fourth quarter of 2021, and January tends to be the time when agreed deals break down.” The EUR/USD will need to get back above the 1.1500 level to have a chance to develop sustainable upside momentum in 2022.
by Capitalcom
21
BTC Correction Cycle end Soon!!!According to Frost and Prechter Elliot waves, both progressive and correction waves are seems end already and BTC wondering begin a new cycle or not! there is a possibility that BTC's new Progressive wave start soon. by Observing ATR(Average True Range), the pattern is similar to what we have on 29th Sep 2021. Price is exactly on a strong resistance point and with Inflation data which be released on Wednesday, Markets would get out of spider's web. SUM UP: I'm still very bullish at this moment and even we face another correction however we walked most of the road to the correction.
Long
by behzadjl
False Breakout in the S&P 500?The S&P 500 made new highs above 4800 early this year, but now the move may be looking like a false breakout. Notice how the rally between December 21 and 27 happened against a backdrop of waning volume. This isn’t a surprise given the Christmas holiday. But then when volume did resume last week, it occurred as price dropped. Several potential reversal patterns followed the yuletide surge. There was a doji on December 29, outside days on December 30 and January 3, then another doji. Third, notice how MACD rang in the New Year with a lower high, even as the index made a slightly higher high. That’s potential “bearish divergence.” Next, SPX returned to its 50-day simple moving average (SMA) less than three weeks after bouncing at that line. Its previous rebound was also close in time. How often can prices test that support before breaking it? Finally, our MA Test Bars Since script shows that the index has gone 386 sessions without touching its 200-day SMA. It’s not a record but it is long by historical standards. With monetary policy tightening and investors shedding big tech, will traders wait for a deeper pullback toward the 200-day SMA? TradeStation is a pioneer in the trading industry, providing access to stocks, options, futures and cryptocurrencies. See our Overview for more. Important Information TradingView is not affiliated with TradeStation Securities Inc. or its affiliates. TradeStation Securities, Inc., TradeStation Crypto, Inc., and TradeStation Technologies, Inc. are each wholly owned subsidiaries of TradeStation Group, Inc., all operating, and providing products and services, under the TradeStation brand and trademark. When applying for, or purchasing, accounts, subscriptions, products and services, it is important that you know which company you will be dealing with. Please click here for further important information explaining what this means. This content is for informational and educational purposes only. This is not a recommendation regarding any investment or investment strategy. Any opinions expressed herein are those of the author and do not represent the views or opinions of TradeStation or any of its affiliates. Investing involves risks. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is no guarantee of future performance or success. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss equal to or greater than your entire investment regardless of which asset class you trade (equities, options, futures, or digital assets); therefore, you should not invest or risk money that you cannot afford to lose. Before trading any asset class, first read the relevant risk disclosure statements on the Important Documents page, found here: www.tradestation.com .
SP:SPX
by TradeStation
1
EURUSD, Bearish Flag paternThe downside flag on the EURUSD currency Given the divergence between the European Central Bank and the US Federal Reserve, the euro is likely to experience lower prices against the dollar. Despite the disappointing NFP figure, analysts believe that the Federal Reserve will continue to tighten market conditions this year. This will be achieved by ending quantitative easing policies and then raising interest rates. Analysts at banks such as Barclays believe that the Federal Reserve will increase in March this year. Forecast for EURUSD According to the daily chart, we see that the EUR / USD pair has been in a volatile range over the past few months. As a result, the pair has moved between the 25-day and 50-day exponential moving averages. A closer look shows that the chart forms a descending flag pattern. The price is currently slightly lower than the top of the flag pattern. Therefore, it is likely that the pair will decline in the coming days as investors predict a divergence between the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank. The information of the Ziwox terminal is in the same direction. -Link The fundamental direction of this pair is declining Analysts and financial institutions forecast a 67% decline. Their retailers are more focused on buying this asset, which further reinforces this downward scenario. This pattern of the flag is confirmed by breaking area 1.12637. Be successful and profitable.
Short
by Alisabbaghi
Inevitable US30 Short - Set Targets!Happy New Year!! New chart for the Risktakers... Surprise, it's not crypto!! The DOW Jones has to fall eventually & that may be *very* soon! U.S. Federal Reserve's Chairman Jerome Powell speaks on Tuesday (a tell for tons of volatility), and now that employment figures are looking better (at least for now),The Fed will next complete the second task of its dual mandate -- Maintaining stable inflation rates. Interest rates have been historically and artificially low for 2 years now. When those rates hike up: - US30 - Short - Dollar (DXY) - Long - BTC/USD - Short - XAU/USD - Short - XAG/USD - Short The pop is inevitable. $tay Risky!
UShort
by risktrader95
The Federal Reserve Effect on AssetsHello friends, today I am showing you six charts - US Dollar (DXY), 10 Year Treasury Interest Rate, Gold, Bitcoin (BTCUSD), WTI Crude Oil and S&P 500 Index (SPX). These are some of the biggest traded assets in the world. The vertical lines on each chart represents the beginning of the month. Over the three months since September 2021, the US Federal Reserve has been pointing to a reduction in balance sheet and dropping in hints of what the are considering (such as tapering, rate hikes and so on). This has directly impacted assets classes across the world as shown in these charts. There is no doubt that interest rates will go up if the Fed is openly saying they want to raise rates so it is with no doubt that the 10 year treasury is up. With that though oil has also been going up while other asset classes like Bitcoin, Gold and S&P 500 are going down. Interestingly the S&P 500 Index has not suffered as bad as Bitcoin has even though many consider them correlated in some way. This may be an indicator of what is to come soon. Lastly, the US Dollar seems to be getting stronger over the past few months and from my prior analysis of it (see ideas below), there is a strong potential for it to keep going higher. 2022 into 2023 will be a surely interesting year with what the Federal Reserve is looking to do. There are many other asset classes I didn't review on this analysis. If you want to drop in others, feel free to do so. What are your opinions on this? If you enjoy my ideas, feel free to like it and drop in a comment. I love reading your comments below. Disclosure: This is just my opinion and not any type of financial advice. I enjoy charting and discussing technical analysis. Don't trade based on my advice. Do your own research!
SP:SPX
by MillionaireEconomics
23
Canadian dollar calm ahead of job reportsThe Canadian dollar is on a holding pattern ahead of key Canadian and US employment reports later today. Currently, USD/CAD is trading just above the 1.27 line. It could be an active North American session for the Canadian dollar, with the release of Canada's job creation numbers and the US nonfarm payrolls. Expectations are low for the Canadian data, with a forecast of just 27 thousand new jobs in December, after a robust gain of 153 thousand in November. There is plenty of anticipation around the nonfarm payroll release, however, especially after the monster ADP release earlier this week. The ADP gain of 807 thousand was double the consensus of 400 thousand, but historically, ADP has not been a reliable gauge of nonfarm payrolls. The forecast for NFP is around 425 thousand, and a release below 250 thousand or above 550 thousand could shake up the US dollar. Investors are starting to get nervous now that a Fed rate hike could be only a few months away, and the timeline for the first rate hike could be impacted by the strength of the nonfarm payroll release. A strong gain would strengthen the likelihood of a March hike, while a soft NFP could delay lift-off of a hike, which could lead to a rotation out of US dollars. In determining when to start hiking, policymakers will be looking not only at the strength of the recovery but also at inflationary pressures. The Fed has abandoned its view that inflation is 'transitory' and this week's FOMC minutes indicated that policymakers viewed inflation risks to the upside and are also concerned about the very tight job market. The minutes also stated that the Fed is considering scaling back its balance sheet as another brake on the economy. The markets took note, with 10-year bonds rising above 1.70% and CME FedWatch pegging the likelihood of a March hike above 70%. USD/CAD is testing resistance at 1.2784. Above, there is resistance at 1.2929 There are support levels at 1.2558 and 1.2477
by OANDA
Have Bonds Bottomed??Bonds have stabilized at lows, and have started to form a range, as we suggested yesterday. We have started to find value just above 128'10, and below 128'24, the exact range we identified in the last report. After plummeting two full handles since the beginning of 2022 it was time for ZN to reach some sort of equilibrium before its next move. From here we expect value to continue to form at current levels. A relief rally is not out of the question, especially after such a selloff. If so, we could make a run for the 129 handle again. There is a large vacuum zone above to 129'11, which should be considered a max upper bound at this point. The floor seems to be 128'10 for now. The Kovach OBV is still quite bearish, so there is little hope for a genuine bull rally any time soon.
CBOT:ZN1!
by quantguy
Home Depot: A Deeper Retest Needed?Home Depot has been ripping higher as Americans spend on their homes. But now the chart may be pointing to sideways movement. First, consider the large bearish engulfing day on January 3. It followed a similar candle on December 8, which may indicate sellers are active above $410. Next, the two peaks have created a downward-sloping channel. The bottom of the pattern roughly corresponds with the $375-379 area where HD gapped higher on November 16. Will it fill that gap? Third, the lower high could suggest an ABC correction is starting. That could also point toward a deeper retest. Finally, the macro tide may be turning away from HD as the Federal Reserve grows increasingly hawkish. TradeStation is a pioneer in the trading industry, providing access to stocks, options, futures and cryptocurrencies. See our Overview for more. Important Information TradingView is not affiliated with TradeStation Securities Inc. or its affiliates. TradeStation Securities, Inc., TradeStation Crypto, Inc., and TradeStation Technologies, Inc. are each wholly owned subsidiaries of TradeStation Group, Inc., all operating, and providing products and services, under the TradeStation brand and trademark. When applying for, or purchasing, accounts, subscriptions, products and services, it is important that you know which company you will be dealing with. Please click here for further important information explaining what this means. This content is for informational and educational purposes only. This is not a recommendation regarding any investment or investment strategy. Any opinions expressed herein are those of the author and do not represent the views or opinions of TradeStation or any of its affiliates. Investing involves risks. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is no guarantee of future performance or success. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss equal to or greater than your entire investment regardless of which asset class you trade (equities, options, futures, or digital assets); therefore, you should not invest or risk money that you cannot afford to lose. Before trading any asset class, first read the relevant risk disclosure statements on the Important Documents page, found here: www.tradestation.com .
NYSE:HD
by TradeStation
2
Pfizer (PFE) to continue its BULL run in 2022!Fundamental Analysis Pfizer, Inc. has consistently been one of the largest pharmaceutical companies in the world for the better part of the last two decades. The company has a remarkable history going back all the way to the year 1849, when Pfizer was founded in Brooklyn, New York. The large cap pharma giant has developed a well-balanced and deep portfolio of products in key areas like Inflammation and Immunology, Internal Medicine, Oncology, Rare Disease, Vaccines etc. However, it seems that as a result of the success of Pfizer's vaccine COVID-19 treatments, many investors have forgotten about the rest of Pfizer's business and how successful it continues to be. It is true that the sales of its COVID-19 vaccine ($36 billion in 2021 alone) have managed to nearly double Pfizer's annual revenue from $41.9 billion in 2020 to over $78 billion in 2021. What's even more important is that the strong sales growth has also translated into higher profits for the company as its profit margins before interest and taxes, referred to as EBIT margin, have risen over the past year. This shows that Pfizer has managed its R&D and all other fixed and operating costs associated with development, production and distribution efficiently, thus improving the profitability ratios of the company. The large cap pharma giant has also managed to almost triple the size of its free cash flow to more than $29 billion over the past twelve months compared to only $11.6 billion in 2020. More free cash flow makes a business more robust, giving Pfizer more money to invest in research and development of new products, pay more in dividends, or strengthen its balance sheet. The company currently has a total of 94 drugs in the pipeline spread across critical treatment areas like Inflammation and Immunology, Internal Medicine, Oncology, Rare Disease, Vaccines etc. all waiting regulatory approval. - Phase 1(27); Phase 2 (29); Phase 3 (29); Registration (9) Looking at the outstanding track record of Pfizer's drug development capabilities, we can easily state that the company will continue to be a leader in the sector that it operates in. Macro view The equity markets in the US are currently undergoing a process of meaningful repricing and re-valuation of what companies are actually worth, as everyone is getting ready for the Federal Reserve to start raising interest rates in the US and tighten its monetary policy. In a rising interest rate environment, investors tend to move away from expensive high-growth stocks trading at unreasonably high P/E and P/S valuations as the tighter monetary policy environment makes it much more difficult and more expensive for such companies to borrow and invest capital and produce the high earnings growth that investors expect from them. Well-established large cap Healthcare and Biotech stocks are considered to be least correlated with the monetary policy situation in the country as they tend to trade more on FDA drug approvals and drug-related announcements rather than actual earnings per share. Most of the leaders in this space also have a substantial pricing power, as people using their medicines are doing so because they need them and because the drugs are helping them get better. Thus, owning Healthcare and Biotech stocks in a rising inflation and interest rate environment is a defensive play that could end up paying off big time, as stocks in these sectors are rather volatile. Technical Analysis The stock has experienced a volatile retracement from its $61 all-time highs and is currently in a corrective phase. However, the uptrend is still intact as the price is well above both the strong horizontal support at $51 and the upward sloping diagonal support (blue line) at $44. Furthermore, the stock is trading above its 5, 20, 50, 200 EMAs, which is also a bullish continuation signal. We expect buyers to start coming in around the $52-53 level, thus establishing the next higher high. Once that is done, the stock will re-test its ATH at around $61 in Q1 of this year. The broad market framework, together with the many positive company related developments in the coming months are expected to bring enough momentum to the stock in order for it to break its previous ATH and set a new one sometime in Q2. Our target for the stock in H1 of 2022 is around the $68 level, which is roughly 30% higher from the current levels. Follow and Copy us on eToro for more detailed market analyses, profitable trading ideas and a consistent portfolio performance. [ b] Sincerely, @DowExperts
NYSE:PFELong
by DowExperts
BTCUSD - Two Forecasts.I like to take bar patterns and compare them to what has happened before, to try and see where the market is taking us. It's just a manual way of doing what machine-learning algorithms perform. With the abysmal performance of Bitcoin lately I see one of two things: Using traditional analysis, there's a possibility that a very large (around 4 months long) teacup pattern is forming. If so, we're just about at the bottom of it now. More likely, using pattern matching, I see a repetition of the March thru May 2021 Bitcoin crash - albeit rescaled to a shorter timeframe and lesser peak/valley difference. If it weren't for the terrible economy (thanks to politicians who love spending other people's money & the idiots at the Fed), we should have been pushing past $100k by now. Hopefully, one of these two forecasts plays out.🤞 If it doesn't it could very well be the end of crypto as we know it. The economy sucks for multiple reasons, but the main factor appears to be a deliberate crashing of the US dollar ... You see, the past 20 years or so of Congressional Spending Bills, together with the Federal Reserve have printed multi-trillions of dollars - creating money they did not have to spend. (This is a de-facto tax on US taxpayers, because it devalues the money that we all have.) Real Money Supply: FRED:M2REAL Federal Debt: FRED:GFDEBTN The Biden admin is, I believe, deliberately pushing us over the edge by spending 10-20 trillion more dollars (creating them into existence via the Federal Reserve ponzi scheme). Instead of demanding a balanced budget, reigning in the out-of-control spending, selling assets and reducing debt, they instead are intent on squeezing out every last drop before they push us over the cliff . Now, the hole they've dug is so colossal, the only way they can get us out of it is by crashing the dollar - which devalues the current debt they've created. They regard it as "Free Money" - ie: "It's going down in flames, so we might as well spend it like crazy!", ignoring the fact that us plebs have to pay for their utter incompetence and complete disregard for US Citizens , because along with the US dollar they're also crashing our entire Savings, 401K's, IRA's, Pension Funds, etc. !! The only things that will increase along with inflation are tangible goods. This is why there are so many corporations/entities trying to gobble up the housing market. Property is one of the few things that will increase along with hyper-inflation created by a US dollar crash. "You'll own nothing and be happy" they tell us. Funny how politicians always come out on top. 🤬 Sigh. Let's Go Brandon! FRED:M2REAL FRED:GFDEBTN
GEMINI:BTCUSDLong
by steveday72
USDCAD- getting ready to explode before FED decisionHere is the nice "inverse head and shoulders" pattern for USDCAD. Opening a long position looks logical with the safe stop loss place. Also, there is FED interest rate decision tomorrow. I expect them to increase the rates. To sum up: USD LONG XAG SHORT XAU SHORT CRYPTOCURRENCIES SHORT is expected by me. *Note that this forecasting is based on the news coming from the FED. Put your stop loss to be prepared for the exact opposite scenario. Stay Safe!
Long
by icaglar7
Swiss franc snoozingThe Swiss franc flexed some muscle in the days leading into Christmas, but the currency is almost unchanged this week, trading around 0.9170. The Omicron variant continues to spread as countries scramble to deal with the newest wave of Covid. The good news is that most reports have shown that Omicron is believed to be far milder than Delta, which hopefully means that this latest Covid wave will not cause as much devastation as Delta. However, there is no question that Omicron is far more contagious than Delta and poses a serious health hazard to unvaccinated people, which could potentially overload hospitals. The markets are extremely reactionary now, especially this week with many market participants on holiday and the markets marked by illiquidity. We are seeing sharp moves from risk currencies such as the Australian dollar, while the US dollar and Swiss franc, both of which are safe-haven assets, have showed limited movement. It's a light economic calendar this week, but there are two Swiss events that could have an impact on the movement of the Swiss franc - Credit Suisse Economic Expectations on Wednesday and the KOF Economic Barometer on Thursday. The uncertainty surrounding Omicron has captivated the market's attention, overshadowing other issues such as a Federal Reserve rate hike. The equity markets have been on the rise, buoyed by reports that Omicron is less severe than Delta and may not impact the US economy as much as feared. The US consumer is spending and unemployment is at low levels, which has kept the recovery going strong. Fed Watch has priced in a 53% chance of a 25-bps hike in March, and the odds of a rate hike will surely change based on the impact of Omicron on the US economy. There is weak support at 0.9161, followed by support at 0.9247 USD/CHF faces resistance at 0.9247 and 0.9294
by OANDA