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US30Hey guys, just an update from my side since we had our FOMC statement and press conference by FED chairman Jerome Powell. The FED hinted that they are positive that the US economy is growing stronger, "With progress on vaccinations and strong policy support, indicators of economic activity and employment have continued to strengthen. The sectors most adversely affected by the pandemic have improved in recent months, but the rise in COVID-19 cases has slowed their recovery.", even if it's not optimal but should grow as they contain the virus. A vague directive was also alluded to regarding the monetary policy, "The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. With inflation having run persistently below this longer-run goal, the Committee will aim to achieve inflation moderately above 2 percent for some time so that inflation averages 2 percent over time and longer‑term inflation expectations remain well anchored at 2 percent. The Committee expects to maintain an accommodative stance of monetary policy until these outcomes are achieved.", this doesn't give investors the needed confidence to hold their long positions and we may see a continued downward movement and this is not a major sell off but a mere correction in the market. They also alluded to the fact that they may start their tapering process soon (likely to have a timeline in the next meeting) "Since then, the economy has made progress toward these goals. If progress continues broadly as expected, the Committee judges that a moderation in the pace of asset purchases may soon be warranted." Taking this few points into consideration, I am still waiting for a retest of the broken structure as well as the order block that was left untested. I believe we will see a downward movement 33270 in the remaining half of the month into November. Out of the 10 most weighted components of the Dow on two we down and not significantly either (UNH -0.83% & AMGN -0.49%) and these two stocks are only 2 of 4 of the components that are down so it is important to be cautious when selling too. Keep the risk minimal! Do me a solid, like & comment on the ideas I post and follow me for more. To read and interpret the statement for yourself please view it here: www.federalreserve.gov This analysis does not constitute financial advise but rather an analysis & interpretation of financial instruments.
OANDA:US30USDShort
by Austin_Palmer
4
TQQQ Buying OpportunityPrice has pulled back from ATH of 153 to a major support of 127 and rallied back to 135 intraday. I should not enter a long position until I have bullish confirmation that the uptrend is continuing. Feds speak this Wednesday & Friday, if inflation is increasing at a faster rate than expected feds may begin to boost interest rates sooner then expected, if this happens it will have a negative effect on the market and possibly flush even lower. What I See: Daily Chart - Price Gapped Down & Pulled Back To 100 Day EMA (Yellow) Which Is Also Key Support Of 127 on Daily Chart & Wicked Off of It While Price Closed Directly on The Key Level Of 133.35 With Bears Still in Control - We Have Seen A lot of Bear Momentum the Past 2 Days leaving us 2 possibilities Here... 1. Price Opens Above 133.35 Support & Rallies To 50 Day EMA (Blue) Acting as Resistance at The Same Key Resistance Of 137.50 Before Continuing Lower or Breaks Above the Key Resistance Of 137.50 & Continues Its Run 2. We Open Below the Support Of 133.35 & Continue Lower to Retest Support of 127 with a strong hold or possible break lower. - Keep in mind gaps normal get filled especially in indexes & ETFs - Fed Meeting on Wednesday & Friday meaning If Talks about raising interest rates sooner then expected is mentioned due to inflation that could have a negative short term impact on equity prices on the other hand if talks about holding interest rates stable due to inflation being controlled that could have a positive impact on equity prices.
NASDAQ:TQQQLong
by BillyTradesFutures
The target no one believes. NASDAQ There too many factor playing out and 2021 the Q3-4. Printing more and more money to stabilize market. Wont last. Too much devaluation of dollar would risk more to the ecnonomy. Money would become worthless and it will never be a hyperinflation again. Dollar is already hovering around lows but still building upwards. As we seen in 2020 the dollar spike hard at crash of all the bond buying and selling of stocks. In the greatest Pandamic of all time is the best year for big companies and worst for smaller ones. I proves big things are gonna come very soon. If you look at all the insider trasaction of 2021 you can see Walmart, Facebook , Amazon, Google , Netflix and many more of the biggest shareholders selling of big profits. Some every day and some every week. Tells they have fear and retail person have no clue. Time to call this move. The banksters did a massive move from highs with above 20% move to the upside to liquidate retails marginal calls. Prices of Lumber sored most in history and crash this summer to its lows again. We had minus price in WTI and almost 80 in WTI after its lows. Big things is going down and it will get a lost worse. Unemployment is still at its highs, what will happend when savings account and stockmarket will fail. 10x the 2008 is coming. By just looking at the FED system and the debt. We know. By looking at insider trasaction. We know. By looking at technicals are all levels we are going to have a big Deflation/Recession to stabilize the currency of domination and reset the economy to whats needed. Exit the market or do you placements. But dont get greedy for more upside.
OANDA:NAS100USDShort
by PivotX
Pound pushes above 1.38, GDP nextThe British pound has punched above the 1.38 level in the Thursday session. GBP/USD is currently trading at 1.3858, up 0.63% on the day. After posting three straight days of losses, the British pound has rebounded strongly on Thursday. The US dollar is in retreat against the majors, despite a positive unemployment claims release earlier in the day. Claims fell to 310 thousand, down from 345 thousand a week earlier. We'll get another look at US inflation data on Friday, with the release of PPI for August expected to indicate that inflation remains red-hot. The consensus stands at 6.5% (YoY) compared to 6.2% in July. The Federal Reserve continues to insist that the surge in inflation is transitory and has been reluctant to respond with a tightening of policy, fearing that the time is not ripe for a scaling back of QE. Still, more investors are sure to join the skeptics if inflation continues to remain at high levels in the final months of 2021. In the UK, the markets will be treated to a data dump on Friday. The key events are GDP and Manufacturing Production. With the Delta variant of Covid continuing to hurt economic growth, July GDP is expected somewhere around zero, which could mean a small decline. Manufacturing Production is also expected to be sluggish with a forecast of 0.1% (MoM). We could see some strong movement from the pound, depending on the performance of these two releases. There is resistance at 1.3924. Above, there is resistance at 1.3988, just below the symbolic line of 1.40. On the downside, we have support at 1.3763 and 1.3666
by OANDA
S&P 500 Nears Top of Range Before Potential TaperThe S&P 500 has climbed for seven straight months. But it may face some near-term challenges as September gets underway. The main pattern on today’s chart is the resistance line running along the highs since mid-April. Notice how prices have stalled once again at this area. Next, consider the type of candles at the top of the range: August 31 and September 1 closed well below their highs of the day. The next two sessions had spinning tops, followed by another solid bar on Tuesday. That suggests a lack of conviction/price acceptance at the highs. Third, MACD is turning negative. The 8-day exponential moving average (EMA) has also started to fall (see our custom script Moving Average Speed ). Notice how dips in the 8-day EMA preceded market drops at other times like mid-August and mid-July. Finally, there’s something of a news vacuum with few major events (or earnings) before the Federal Reserve meeting on September 22. That could potentially keep buyers on the sidelines and allow a pullback if sellers get active. TradeStation is a pioneer in the trading industry, providing access to stocks, options, futures and cryptocurrencies. See our Overview for more.
SP:SPX
by TradeStation
EURUSD Cooling OffEURUSD pushed ahead last week due to a poor U.S. jobs report. The problem with the jobs report is the Fed has to choose between unemployment or inflation to control. Since inflation has cooled off last month and the Fed insists its transitory, so will they reduce the pace of tapering or even delay it's announcement? This gives USD weakness. The issue this week is the ECB will not announce tapering on Thursday and the long positions on EURUSD from speculators may be closed or reigned in before then. With that in mind and the resistance to the left from a while back, we should see a retracement...
Short
by UnknownUnicorn15362357
BTC's deadly H&S ☠️A very clear Head and Shoulders is visible in BTC's weekly chart. 📍If the neckline could not hold the price, it can be broken and the 3 TPs of the head and shoulders are shown further in the chart 📍 The first TP is the middle of the long-term regression channel which is around 25k and a very important price level and support zone. 📍 The latest fundamental NEWS aren't actually very positive either, as there are rumors that the institutional investors are looking forward to sell bitcoin in this price level 📍 Another very important factor is the DXY (Dollar Index Chart) which seems very bullish and we can assume that the crypto-currency may need a coll-off for the next bull-run ⚠️ corona-virus was another key factor which helped the crypto-currencies and helped them show their power, now when the vaccination is about to happen globally and the lock-downs have decreased vastly we can assume that the Bitcoin and other crypto-currecnies need to cool-off... ALL THE STATEMENTS ABOVE ARE MY POINT OF VIEW PLEASE DO NOT TAKE ANY LONG OR SHORT POSITION BASED ON MY ANALYSIS Ask me your questions and or problems I would be very happy to know your opinions
BNC:BLXShort
by C_EWAVE13
2
BTC/USD resist support long setup 4h INFLATION CORRECTED CANDLESDISCLAIMER: THIS IS THE SAME IDEA AS I POSTED EARLIER TODAY, HOWEVER CONSIDERING US DOLLAR INFLATION. PRICE VALUES ON THIS IDEA ARE RELATIVE AND SHOULD BE COMPLETELY DISREGARDED. ONLY THE SHAPE OF THE CANDLE MACROSCRUTCURE IS RELEVANT IN THIS IDEA, AND FOR LONG ENTRIES AND EXITS LOOK AT MY PREVIOUS IDEA. The bitcoin price could pump soon and bounce between the resistance and supports areas. Drawn on the chart is 1h/4h identified significant resistance and support lines. Purple boxes are strong resistance support, blue boxes are weaker resistance support. The proposed long positions have very tight stop losses, and very loose take profit, so the risk reward ratio is advantageous. The longs could be made as four individual longs, or as one single long, where profit is taken at the four different indicated levels. If a single long is opened, the first take profit should ideally be closing the vast majority of the position. possibly up to 80%, and the next take profit should be 80% of the remaining position and so on. A fib extension is shown from the recent low, to the current local top price, fitting somewhat well with the historic resistance and support lines.
Long
by Transparent10Xleveragetrades
1
PCG - Going as Planned***None of the idea I share, including this one, should be taken as financial advise. Tread lightly and if ever you find yourself certain of something, think again.*** Previous Idea and Trend In my previous idea (linked) on PCG I said I'd expect this stock to struggle downward most of the summer and reach a strong support level in the low $9.00 range. This has been the case so far and there's not much that's changed to affect my view, at this point. Reiteration I still believe the current price level is this stock's bottom until there are other catalysts. It will remain around this level for the remainder of the summer with a possible break-out later this year (October or November). Other News PCG's decision to burry 10,000 miles of cable to mitigate fire risk is, in my view, an attempt to save face given the present concerns over PCG's role in the Dixie fire and sensitivity around the wildfire subject at large. I say this because cable burial, even when done as cheaply as feasible, is very expensive when compared to overhead installations. My preference would have been for PCG to make large investments in overhead protection of assets (specifically fuse-linked cutouts and surge-arrester failures). There are plenty of asset protection devices that almost completely mitigate the chance of asset failure and subsequent fire creation. This could have been done with fractions of the cost of cable burial and could have been done system wide instead of only across select segments (where the likelihood the most effectual burial segments could be miss-identified is high). In my estimation, this move's short-sightedness it mitigated by the comfort provided from concern management is showing toward future fire prevention. Dixie Fire and PCG From what I've read, it seems very unlikely PG&E had a role in starting the Dixie fire; more so considering the exact verbiage of any legal challenge would include the word "negligent". Thus far, legal "challenges" have been political in nature rather than legally interesting: All fear, loathing, and grand-standing. Even if PG&E is found to have behaved negligently resulting in the Dixie fire, the structure of AB 1054 provides reasonable downside protection. The Fed's Role As always, in this current market, we have to consider Fed actions. If talk of asset tapering manifests into actual tapering I would expect this stock to fall. We shall see. Position Additions I'm still not looking to add to my position until the common stock reaches mid-to-low $7.00 range.
NYSE:PCG
by forever_green
BITCOIN - Traders should be vigilant with what's coming next Hey everyone, Quick update on the Bitcoin chart. As you can see, things are going as planned with the technical analysis and we now have a clearer picture with what's coming. Today, the fundamentals was on our side at a very good timing. Let me recap what happened, the Federal Reserve chairman’s, Jackson Hole, did an address to begin tapering bond purchases by the end of the year. This consequently led to Treasury yields and the dollar valuation to fall. While U.S. equities and Gold gained. Cryptocurrency was no exception. However, traders should be really vigilant with Bitcoin in the next hours. Let me tell you why: 1. While we bounced from the rising channel, we need a higher high and higher low to confirm the market's confidence in the 4h timeframe. Currently, we only have the latter... This is why it's very important to have a higher high for continuation of the channel because if we don't, we might have a head and shoulders pattern coming to play. 2. Big resistance in the 51k and 52k price due to the Fibonacci golden pocket being there (0.618 and 0.65 levels). 3. Lower volume the higher we go. The decrease in volume as price goes up worries me. This indicates that a big move is incoming. But it also shows that the bulls are losing steam and probably needs a short break before going to the 🚀 4. The RSI is still showing a bearish divergence. To invalidate this behavior, we need a higher high in the RSI. Now, what are my targets . For those who are following me, it's clear that the 20 Week SMA (the red line) from the bull market support band is the point in which I'm planning to buy back in. But do note that we also have support from the 0.382 Fibonacci level that coincides almost perfectly with the 20 Week SMA. In the past, it acted as resistance that later became support as shown with the red ellipse drawing. I'm expecting this to happen again as this would should tremendous support for the bulls to keep the up trend. It would also be less riskier 😃 That's all for this analysis! Be sure to follow me to stay up to date with my work and drop a like if you enjoyed it. Yours truly, Aloo2k
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by aloo2k
2
Jackson Hole and Eur-UsdIt is only a day away from the start of the central bankers' symposium on Thursday in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Jerome Powell has already been making it clear to the markets for several days that the Federal Reserve's stimulus plan is coming to an end. Stop with the ultra-accommodating policy, zero-cost money and massive purchases of government bonds (120 billion a month): it is time for tapering. The markets did not react positively. However, as the days passed (two days, in fact), investors realised that the Fed will not allow a stock market crash, creating chaos. So yesterday, the S&P500 index has once again touched its all-time high. What is on the horizon is a split between the Fed and the ECB. After years of walking arm in arm in the name of growth and the fight against inflation, the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank are about to part ways. With GDP at 6.5%, a steadily improving labour market and, above all, inflation already above 5%, the Fed is preparing to reduce stimulus. On an economic level, monetary tightening means that access to credit will become a little more expensive and thus less money will be available for families to consume and businesses to invest. As far as the currency market is concerned, all this translates into a strengthening of the dollar. There is some concern, especially because of Covid-19, which is far from being averted also because of its variants. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen expressed her fears in a letter to Congress, in which she warned that the Delta variant of the virus could damage the economy. On the other side of the Atlantic, the ECB has no intention of changing its stimulus plan and rates will remain at zero for a long time to come, as Christine Lagarde confirmed when answering journalists' questions at the ECB's latest meeting, “there is still a long way to go before the damage to the economy caused by the pandemic is offset” and again, “none of us would want to tighten prematurely.” The only thing that remains to be seen is the timing of the Fed's tapering, most likely before the end of the year. Now, quickly a look at Eur-Usd to try to understand what could be the future scenario of the currency pair. Above, you can see the chart with the most important levels highlighted. If what is written above is confirmed and the US will set a date for the start of tapering, then for Eur-Usd the doors of decline will open wide. In this case, I don't think the rebound will continue any further. If there will be hesitations, second thoughts, and only hypotheses and ideas understudy, then I think that Eur-Usd can continue to rise with first targets 1.17800, 1.18200 and 1.18750/1.19250 area. So, from tomorrow, eyes on the symposium in Jackson Hole.
by TradingwDavid
S&P 500 Weekly Daily Chart Analysis For August 16, 2021 Technical Analysis and Outlook The S&P 500 fell 2.5% on Monday, at one point in the week, and on Thursday provided us with Rinse and Repeated buying opportunity ( Mean Sup $4,368-Mean Sup $4,385 zone ). As specified on Weekly Daily Chart Analysis For August 2, 2021, the main target is Outer Index Rally $4,483 and newly created the Key Res $4,480 . The very low downside scenario is revisiting the ''Rinse and Repeat'' buying zone. See the 'Weekly Market Review & Analysis For August 16, 2021" page at the usual site for the rest of the market story.
TVC:SPX
by TradingSig
1
USDCAD Testing the Previous Swing Peak The price action of the USDCAD pair is currently nearing the last swing peak at 1.28000 (the Distribution area in red). If it manages to penetrate above it, the price would then likely head towards the 1.272 Fibonacci extension level at 1.29054. The dollar strengthening in the short term is owing to investors and traders' expectations of FED tapering. Notice that the current uptrend commenced following a breakout above the Pennant pattern. Bears can look for an opportunity to sell around 1.29054 on the expectation for a minor correction. The price action could then fall to the 23.6 per cent Fibonacci retracement level at 1.26191.
Short
by Trendsharks
1
The CPI Fantasy And Commodity PricesRodney Dangerfield was one of my all-time favorite comedians. He was a master at the one-liner, and while his catchphrase was “I don’t get no respect,” he got plenty. Rodney passed in 2004, but his legacy lives on in films. His role as Thornton Melon in the 1986 comedy classic Back to School continues to have a cult following. As he sat in an economics class, the professor created a theoretical company that sold widgets, the favorite product of academics. The lesson included funding the company and developing a marketing strategy for the widgets. Rodney’s character, already a wealthy businessman, attempted to point out the realities of starting a business, but the professor objected. Rodney then glibly asked the economist if his factory was in “fantasy land.” While the film was a fictional comedy, there is a fine line between fiction and nonfiction. The US Federal Reserve continues to call rising inflationary pressures “transitory.” Long ago, the economists massaged the consumer price data to extract a core that excludes food and energy prices called “core CPI.” Thornton Melon would call the core data “fantasy land” as food and energy are the critical factors that take a bite out of consumers’ budgets. Another significant increase in the inflation barometer Core CPI is fantasy land Look at the evidence- It costs more to power our lives and fuel our bodies Transitory in Fed Speak and the literal definition is not the same The trend is always your friend- Economists are behind the curve Another significant increase in the inflation barometer In June and July, the previous month’s consumer price index data was off the charts, indicating rising inflation. This month, the July CPI reading rose 5.4%, another sky-high level. While the number was in line with the market’s expectations, core CPI, excluding food and energy, was up 0.3% compared to the forecast level at 0.4%. The market interpreted the core number as less inflationary as it was below the expected reading. Core CPI is fantasy land Economists are social scientists, making their projections and interpretations highly subjective. They argue that core CPI better reflects inflationary pressures because food and energy prices can be highly volatile. Excluding them from the inflation barometer smooths the data. In statistics, the science of data, hedonic regression is the application of regression analysis to estimate the impact of various factors on the price of demand for a good. Hedonics is commonly used in real estate pricing as a quality adjustment for price indices. When it comes to inflation, excluding food and energy from the CPI is similar. The problem with core CPI is that food and energy make up a significant part of budgets. Rising prices for the products that fuel our lives and provide nutrition for our bodies is taking an ever-increasing bite out of paychecks is a reality, while eliminating them distorts the actual cost of living for the majority of people. Economists massage data. The US Federal Reserve relies on statistics in its monetary policy decision-making process. Thornton Melon would say that core CPI only exists in “fantasy land.” Look at the evidence- It costs more to power our lives and fuel our bodies Anyone that fills their car with gasoline, heats or cools their homes, or eats, will tell you that prices are a lot higher in August 2021 than they were in August 2020. Futures prices are real-time objective data as they reflect where buyers and sellers meet in a transparent environment. The evidence pointing to the reality of rising inflation from the August 2020 high to the August 13, 2021 closing level on the nearby futures contracts is clear: Nearby NYMEX crude oil prices increased from $43.78 to $68.44 per barrel, an increase of 56.3%. Gasoline moved from $1.4395 to $2.2626 per gallon or 57.2%. Heating oil and distillate prices rose from $1.3054 to $2.0779 per gallon, a 59.2% rise. Natural gas appreciated from $2.743 to $3.861 per MMBtu or 40.8%. Corn rose from $3.53 to $5.6825 per bushel or 61.0%. Soybeans rallied from $9.67 to $13.73 per bushel or 42.0%. CBOT wheat increased from $5.5175 to $7.6225 per bushel or 38.2%. Coffee rose from $1.3080 to $1.8275 per pound or 39.7%. Sugar moved from 13.28 cents to 19.95 cents per pound or 50.2%. Live cattle appreciated from $1.08225 to $1.28125 per pound or 18.4%. Lean hogs are up from 56.70 cents to 86.525 per pound or 52.6% over the period. The substantial increases in food and energy commodities paint a very inflationary picture. Moreover, the price rises reflect wholesale levels. Retail prices have risen far more over the past year. Yesterday, I paid over $4.20 per gallon for gasoline in Las Vegas, double the price last year. Food and energy prices are the tip of an inflationary iceberg. Education, health care, and housing costs are soaring. All raw material prices have moved appreciably higher. Transitory in Fed Speak and the literal definition is not the same In reality, prices are soaring in the Fed’s “fantasy land,” the core CPI data does not look all that bad as they only rose 0.3% in August. However, our food and energy bills went up a hell of a lot more last month. Over the past months, the Fed blamed rising inflationary pressures on lumber, new and used car prices, and other “transitory” factors created by bottlenecks in supply chains and other pandemic-related factors. The academic ivory tower where the economists sit is far above ground zero, where consumers shop each day. The definition of “transitory” is not permanent. Adjectives are temporary, transient, brief, short, short-lived, fleeting, and passing. “Transitory,” in a literal sense, requires an end date. So far, the Fed has not provided that data to the market. When asked about the period the central bank measures its 2% average inflation target, Chairman Powell replied it is “discretionary” or available for use at the user’s discretion. Transitory and discretionary is Fed-speak for leave it to us. They are non-answers to critical questions about the Fed’s interpretation and policy stance. Transitory reflects the central bank’s hopes and wishes, while discretionary tells us they will figure it all out someday. The trend is always your friend- Economists are behind the curve The bottom line is that the most objective measures of inflation are the wholesale futures prices and the retail costs of living. Food and energy prices are only a microcosm of rising prices across all asset classes. Money’s purchasing power is eroding because of the tidal wave of central bank liquidity and tsunami of government stimulus. Even if the Fed bites the bullet and addresses rising inflation, the government continues to spend without abandon. A $3.5 trillion budget initiative before the US Congress with an infrastructure rebuilding package only increases the debt level. The Fed is living in “fantasy land” as inflation continues to rise. In August 2020, gold made a new record high. In May 2021, lumber, copper, and palladium prices rose to all-time peaks. Grains and oilseeds rose to eight-year highs in 2021. In July, coffee futures rose to their highest price since 2014. Bull markets in the volatile commodities sector rarely move in a straight line. The ascent of prices has been nothing short of a bull market relay race, with one commodity handing the baton to the next. The most recent recipient was the sugar market, which rose to over 20 cents per pound last week, the highest price since 2017. Even if we use statistical methods to smooth the bullish price action, the underlying trends reveal that the Federal Reserve’s approach to monetary policy is far behind the inflationary curve. Inflation can be a challenging beast to tame. As it rises, the central bank’s refusal to acknowledge and address the economic condition will reward it with the lack of respect it deserves. We live in a stark reality created by policies that continue to erode money’s value. Rodney Dangerfield was a comedian. There is a fine line between comedy and tragedy. If the approach to monetary policy that hides behind massaged data were not so tragic, it would be funny. 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CBOT:ZC1!
by Andy_Hecht
Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Weekly Daily Chart Analysis For August 9, 2021Technical Analysis and Outlook It seems there is no stopping Bitcoin after the cryptocurrency surged past our psychological Mean Res $46,580 mark, which held the coin captive for four sessions from passing this barrier. Next is our target Inner Coin Rally of $50,130, coinciding with a significant $50,000 Maginot Line . Will the price of Bitcoin increase to $50,000 this weekend? See the 'Weekly Market Review & Analysis For August 9, 2021" page at the usual site for the rest of the market story.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by TradingSig