Get started

Federalreserve

Bitcoin Short Setup! ABC elliot wave correctionFull short elliot waves setup headed to 44000 to 48000 USD is finally here!. Some many bullish comments you heard: "november 80k"...."December 120k target cause stock to flow model"... too much FOMO I presume. We strongly believe on an end cycle have been reached this time and Bitcoin needs to correct 20% - 35% at least to keep an ascendend steps like it was in the past. Some few reasons to considery it: 1- FED Tappering it's here. 2- Inflation rate on historical highs. 3- Evergrande default and some few chinese institutions with high loans and no liquidity. 4- Bitcoin market makers are watching peoples FOMO. 5- Bitcoin Bearish Rising wedge Elliot waves and chart features: 1- Logarithm chart 2- Wave A: 55500 - 58000 Wave B: 60000 - 63000 Wave C: 44000 - 48000
Short
by maugigli
7
The Road To Normalcy Begins (06 November 2021)Fed starts tapering! The long-awaited taper meeting has finally arrived! The Federal Reserve announced during their monetary policy meeting on Thursday that it will begin slowing down its net asset purchases by $15 billion per month which comprises of $10 billion Treasury bonds and $5 billion agency mortgage-backed securities. The first round of tapering will begin later this month and the second round will take place at the beginning of December. Moving forward, the monthly pace of quantitative easing (QE) tapering will be similar to these two months and may be adjusted depending on the economic outlook. Regardless of the pace, the Fed is expecting QE to end by mid-2022. The following illustration shows that under the same tapering pace, QE will end in June 2022. Nov 2021: $70b Treasury Bonds + $35b Agency MBS Dec 2021: $60b Treasury Bonds + $30b Agency MBS Jan 2022: $50b Treasury Bonds + $25b Agency MBS Feb 2022: $40b Treasury Bonds + $20b Agency MBS Mar 2022: $30b Treasury Bonds + $15b Agency MBS Apr 2022: $20b Treasury Bonds + $10b Agency MBS May 2022: $10b Treasury Bonds + $5b Agency MBS Jun 2022: End of QE A small step back on “transitory” With the recent comment made by Fed Chairman Powell that supply bottlenecks will take longer to ease, thus expecting prices to remain high for a longer period of time, the Fed has taken a small step back from its view on inflation being transitory. The previous confidence that the elevated inflation “largely reflecting transitory factors” has now been revised to “largely reflecting factors that are expected to be transitory”. During the press conference, Powell also clarified the definition of “transitory” that the central bank adopts after highlighting that the word has different understanding to different people. For the Fed, “if something is transitory it will not leave behind permanently – or very persistently higher – inflation”. With the ongoing supply chain disruptions, the central bank Chief is expecting inflation to continue its rise into 2022 before easing back down during mid-2022. Maximum employment still quite a distance away Although tapering of the massive $120 billion per month QE programme has begun, Powell warned that the Fed’s decision to do so does not imply a rate hike is underway. The central bank held its interest rate unchanged at the targeted range of 0-0.25% and would like to see the labour market achieve maximum employment before considering a hike. As of the October’s jobs report, the U.S. job market is still some 5 million jobs away from the pre-pandemic level. The Fed is likely going to consider a rate hike only when the jobs lost during the pandemic have been fully recovered. Even so, the central bank may wait a little longer to be certain that jobs growth is indeed consistent before committing.
TVC:DXY
by GH_Lee
3
Pound's woes continueThe British pound has extended its losses in the Friday session. GBP/USD is currently trading at 1.3445, down 0.41% on the day. It's been a miserable week for the British pound, which is down 1.76% this week. The driver behind the pound's slide was the BoE meeting, as policy makers caught the markets off guard when they opted to maintain the cash rate at 0.10%. Governor Andrew Bailey had strongly hinted that that bank would raise rates at this week's meeting, but in the end, the MPC voted 7-2 to stay put, with Bailey among the majority. Bailey noted that the decision had been a "close call", but the markets reacted sharply, with the pound plunging 2.2% since the BoE's surprise non-move. The BoE has said it will raise rates in the "coming months", but is clearly under pressure to make a move soon, and it could be faced with a credibility issue if it chooses to sit on the sidelines at the December meeting. The fact that the BoE is still running a QE scheme while talking about raising rates is also a potential source of confusion for the markets, as the two programmes are inconsistent with each other. In contradistinction, the Fed has no plans to raise rates before it winds up its bond purchase program. Attention now shifts to the US, with the release of nonfarm payrolls later today. The consensus stands at around 450 thousand jobs added, and a reading above the 500 thousand level will reignite talk of an accelerated taper programme and possibly the Fed bringing forward guidance on a rate hike. That would likely give the US dollar a boost. Conversely, a print below 350 thousand will dampen rate expectations and likely weigh on the greenback. GBP/USD continues to break support levels as it falls lower. The pair is testing support at 1.3471. Below, there is monthly support at 1.3253 There is resistance at 1.3570 and 1.3632
by OANDA
Has The USD Avoided The Dreaded Taper Tantrum?With its back up against a wall, the US Federal Reserve has pledged to begin tapering its asset purchase program. Beginning later this month, the Federal Reserve will reduce the number of US Treasury Securities it purchases each month by US $10 billion and the number of Mortgage-Backed Securities by US $5 billion. How did the USD react to the Federal Reserve announcement? By all accounts, a dreaded ‘taper tantrum’ has been avoided in the wake of the announcement. At least in relation to the forex market. Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell has been extremely careful to prime investors for this moment. For one, all hawkish commentary from the chairman has been mediated with dovish caveats. Admittedly, less senior Federal Reserve officials have done much of the leg work in hinting and out-right suggesting the need for a reduction in its purchases. Either way, the conversation surrounding tapering has been sustained for months, giving investors time to mull over the implications. As of writing, the USD index, the DXY has crossed back over the 94.00 mark and comfortable sits 94.33, up 0.53% since the Federal Reserve’s tapering announcement. Will the Federal Reserve continue to taper? The Federal Reserve will still be purchasing $105 billion worth of securities, with further reductions dependent on continuing favourable economic outlook. The Federal Reserve has indicated it is considering reducing spending, month over month, moving forward. However, if economic conditions deteriorate, the spending reductions could be nullified or reversed. The Federal Reserve will be keeping an eye on inflation and the number of jobs added to the economy each month. Inflation remains at a decade high A significant consideration of the Federal Reserve when determining its reduction in spending is the US inflation rate. While it is at a 13-year high, the Federal Reserve maintains that most of the inflation experienced heretofore is temporary. Octobers inflation number is released next Wednesday. Trading Economics is forecasting a 0.1% increase in US inflation. Up next: Non-Farm Payroll Another significant consideration of the Federal Reserve when determining its tapering is the Non-Farm Payroll (NFP). The NFP indicates how many non-farm jobs were added to the economy in a given month. The data for the October non-farm payroll will be released tonight to great anticipation. Trading Economics is forecasting 400K jobs, while the market consensus is a little more optimistic and is forecasting 450K jobs. The NFP has disappointed for the past two months, with actual job figures falling far short of the numbers predicted. Even so, the Federal Reserve has seen fit to begin tapering as job growth seemingly slows. Treasury Security Janet Yellen noted the US economy is still short 5 million jobs compared to pre-pandemic times, which will take the US years to recover at the current rate of job growth.
TVC:DXY
by BlackBull_Markets
Euro dips to 3-week low as Fed trimsThe euro is down considerably in Thursday trade. Currently, EUR/USD is trading at 1.1550, down 0.53%. Earlier in the day, the euro fell to 1.1528, its lowest level since October 13th. There were no surprises from the Federal Reserve meeting, as policy makers trimmed the QE programme by 15 billion dollars/month. The move was nonetheless highly significant, as it marks the first tightening in policy since QE was introduced as a response to the economic downturn in early 2020 due to the Covid pandemic. Although the move was communicated to the markets in advance, it was unclear as to how much the Fed would trim, and an amount other than 15 billion dollars could have shaken up the US dollar. The Fed's move was aptly described as a 'dovish taper', in that the Fed continues to maintain a dovish stance as far as future rate hikes and inflation. Fed Chair Powell said after the meeting that the bank would remain patient and wait until the job market was stronger before raising rates, emphasising that the Fed would encourage job growth through low rates. As for inflation, Powell stuck to his well-worn script that the current bout of high inflation is "expected to be transitory" and will ease lower. Powell appears to be odds with the markets, which are far more hawkish and have priced in several rate hikes for 2022. Inflation has been running at 4% over the past five months (double the Fed's target) and it's becoming a stretch to argue that this is a transitory trend, with no sign that inflation will cool anytime soon. What is interesting is that other major central banks are also preaching patience and arguing that high inflation is transitory. Earlier today, the BoE surprised the markets by maintaining rates; the BoE had signalled that it would raise rates in order to contain inflation. However, the BoE echoed the Fed when it stated today that the factors causing high inflation were transient and that it expected inflation to ease in several months. The ECB is also singing from the same hymn sheet - the bank has projected that inflation will be "subdued" in the medium term, and earlier in the week, ECB President Christine Lagarde said that the bank had no plans to raise rates in 2022. There are resistance lines at 1.1658 and 1.1754 1.1501 is providing support. This line has held since July, but was under pressure earlier in the day. Below, there is support at 1.1440
by OANDA
It is the FED day The markets are likely to choose a directional price path after the announcement and press conference that will wrap up around 3 PM Eastern. While the market is pricing in hiking, it’s not actually pricing in tightening. Or to put it another way, it’s not pricing in the kind of move that would meaningfully slow down growth or inflation. Aspen Trading S/R levels are showing resistance @ 4,628.25 and we should wait for the market direction after FED announcement. Overall, SPX500 looks really good for a bullish move to the upside. Please like, share and follow if you agree with the analysis. Note - Aspen Trading S/R levels are invite only. They can be accessed through my profile information. Disclaimer: This analysis is for information purpose only and does not constitute any investment advice.
FX:SPX500Long
by tradingswift
INTEREST RATE DECISION IMPACT II. PARTI think we are nearing the end and just like the Federal Reserve help to put the bottom in in March of 2020 I think they are going mark the top in at the end the this year making (2021). How the mechanisms work in short. At this point in a long-term economic cycles you seen the financilization of everything near the end of the dominance of economies that only global reserve currency becomes one trade. Business Land Stores of valu All move in tandem against the currency at the sole discretion of the Central Bank We've seen in last two years unprecedented money supply in the intervention in our economy by the Central Bank that results have been record high asset prices and record-breaking inflation. Federal Reserve faces unpopular decision holding back on it easy money policy. Its comes in two forms either raising interest rates or selling assets. The FED currently doing which is buying acsetss injecting new money what they will do in near future is selling assets thus they will extract money from the economy . They stated very clearly the economy is not yet strong enough to raise interest rates. Thus the first thing that they plan on doing is reducing assets purchases and then after that point they will start selling and raising interest rate at some point. Timeline for this when will this tapering will happen and when will cause a crash as result of tightening would definitely not happen until at least tigtening begins so its pretty much rules out this year because they've stated that they're gonna let us know when it's going to happen . The earliest that begin to reducing asset purchases is closer to the end of this year but it does take a little bit of time for the effect of monetary policy to be felt in economy. The effect does not will be inmediant, but for you at time need to positioneted your assets accordingly. We have time , which is great but if we step earlie we gonna leave money on the table. FED TIMELINE According to the Federal Reserve with light to have their total asset purchase per month down 0$ purchases by the end of 2022 if not a little bit earlier. Current120 billion dollars ( min) In the next part I will let you know why they need hike rates, and how its connected with Joe Biden agenda. Now the most important things to interpret the coming message from Jeremy Powell on Wednesday. Please look after if you dont know M2 money supply
U
by ElGatoTrade
Will Jerome Powell Bury Gold Miners?The VanEck Gold Miners ETF has had a countertrend rally this month, rebounding from a 17-month low. But now could be the time sellers return. The first pattern on today’s chart is the $33.25 price zone. GDX bounced at this level in November and July. It marked the high in early September and seems to be resistance again this week. Next, stochastic has been in an overbought condition. This reading also marked tops in May, August and September. Third, consider upcoming events like the Federal Reserve meeting and non-farm payrolls next week. Those could potentially boost interest rates and the U.S. dollar, which may be negative for precious metals. Finally GDX is forming an inside week, a potential sign of its recent bounce slowing. This pattern also occurred at tops in August 2020 and May 2021. (See below.) TradeStation is a pioneer in the trading industry, providing access to stocks, options, futures and cryptocurrencies. See our Overview for more.
AMEX:GDXShort
by TradeStation
Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis For October 23, 2021Technical Analysis and Outlook: As to technical analysts, the next drive higher will meet the target of Key Res $65,990, and retest of completed Inner Coin Rally marked the same. The downside support is Mean Sup $57,400 and Key Sup $ 53,900. However, the present fractal model suggests that the next significant target of interest will be the Impending Outer Coin Rally marked at $81,330 - Flagged by Trade Selecter many moons ago.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradeSelecter
Analysis of the Federal Meeting todayThe meeting of the members of the Federal Reserve was held today at 17:30 Iranian time. In this post, we will analyze his speech and the direction of the market. Remarks by Mr. Powell US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome H. Powell said in a statement today: 1- Inflation is expected to decrease 2- Trying to control inflation and employment 3- Reduction of inflation in the first half of 2022 4- Waiting for the debt limit to be lifted Conclusions from Powell's speech: The United States is working to boost trade and businesses in the post-corona era by increasing liquidity. This increases inflation by increasing liquidity For this reason, increasing liquidity increases inflation and, due to the higher cost of using labor and consumer goods, creates a catastrophe (similar to Iranian policy) if left unchecked. Mrs. Yellen's words US Treasury Secretary Janet Louise Yellen said today that I would like to make a few points: Waiting for the debt limit to be lifted Failure to raise the debt ceiling would be a disaster Market reaction to these negotiations: The US dollar index (DXY) fell from 94.373 to 94.107, after which the gold and currency pairs on the right side of the US dollar entered an uptrend. In the currency pairs that have reached the bottom, you can now expect an upward trend. Please follow me and like this post. I'm on Twitter too. (Trying to be the best)
TVC:DXY
by mohamadrezaKhorsand
3
FED interest rates and BTCFED has on the 22 of september that from november of this year onwards it will no longer inject as much liquidity into the market as it used to do, and it also announced that it will raise interest rates sooner than expected, further increasing the demand for US dollars, and theoretically reducing the price of bitcoin. The interest rates hikes will start on 2023, further impacting the price of bitcoin. This only shows the high likelihood of decline in bitcoin prices in the future, but, right now, it could still try to rise to higher levels, and in the low probability that the FED managed to create inertial inflation, an even more agressive rise in prices in the future. The objective of this idea in the end is to warn people that a change in fundamentals just happened, and that it will most likely negatively affect bitcoin prices. In technical terms, it broke the uptrend that it formed from the corona crash, and could try to find support in the 2015 uptrend, but i would not want to see the 38k level broken, much less the 30k level broke, a break in the 30k level would unequivocally indicate the start of a bear market, and one that could last years like the 2017 bear market.
BNC:BLX
by moonman1488
1
US30Hey guys, just an update from my side since we had our FOMC statement and press conference by FED chairman Jerome Powell. The FED hinted that they are positive that the US economy is growing stronger, "With progress on vaccinations and strong policy support, indicators of economic activity and employment have continued to strengthen. The sectors most adversely affected by the pandemic have improved in recent months, but the rise in COVID-19 cases has slowed their recovery.", even if it's not optimal but should grow as they contain the virus. A vague directive was also alluded to regarding the monetary policy, "The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. With inflation having run persistently below this longer-run goal, the Committee will aim to achieve inflation moderately above 2 percent for some time so that inflation averages 2 percent over time and longer‑term inflation expectations remain well anchored at 2 percent. The Committee expects to maintain an accommodative stance of monetary policy until these outcomes are achieved.", this doesn't give investors the needed confidence to hold their long positions and we may see a continued downward movement and this is not a major sell off but a mere correction in the market. They also alluded to the fact that they may start their tapering process soon (likely to have a timeline in the next meeting) "Since then, the economy has made progress toward these goals. If progress continues broadly as expected, the Committee judges that a moderation in the pace of asset purchases may soon be warranted." Taking this few points into consideration, I am still waiting for a retest of the broken structure as well as the order block that was left untested. I believe we will see a downward movement 33270 in the remaining half of the month into November. Out of the 10 most weighted components of the Dow on two we down and not significantly either (UNH -0.83% & AMGN -0.49%) and these two stocks are only 2 of 4 of the components that are down so it is important to be cautious when selling too. Keep the risk minimal! Do me a solid, like & comment on the ideas I post and follow me for more. To read and interpret the statement for yourself please view it here: www.federalreserve.gov This analysis does not constitute financial advise but rather an analysis & interpretation of financial instruments.
OANDA:US30USDShort
by Austin_Palmer
4