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Bitcoin PA and the FED Rate rises History since 2021 The chart explains itself really but we can see that BTC PA has not been effected Directly but more by the impact on other organisations, Mostly Banks. What will be interesting to see i nt eh coming months, is what happens when the FED curs rates, probably in September 2024. On average, when the FED Pivots, Stocks fall...people tend to forget this. We shall have to wait and see if Bitcoin can ride it out, thoguhj I feel ETF's have changed the game a LOT
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Orriginal
Fed decision time: Rate cuts before Nov election? The U.S. Federal Reserve is anticipated to maintain the federal funds target range at 5.25%-5.5% when officials conclude their two-day meeting on Wednesday. Investors will be scrutinizing the statement to learn when the central bank might eventually reduce its rate and the potential frequency of such cuts this year. Market expectations suggest a possible rate cut in mid-September, 2 months ahead of the November 5 presidential election. Eswar Prasad, a professor at Cornell University, noted that the recent May jobs report likely ruled out a rate cut in July, while Adam Posen, director of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, goes even further, suggesting that the robust U.S. economy diminishes the likelihood of a pre-election rate cut. The Fed has rescheduled its November meeting to occur post-election, a move reminiscent of 2020. In a letter addressed to Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, three Democratic senators, including Elizabeth Warren, have called for rate cuts as soon as possible. "The Fed’s monetary policy is... driving up housing and auto insurance costs—two of the key drivers of inflation...”. Former Fed Vice-Chair Donald Kohn asserted that Chair Powell has consistently maintained that decisions are driven by economic conditions rather than political considerations, expressing confidence that this principle will be upheld in the coming months.
TVC:DXY
by BlackBull_Markets
Yield Curve Inverts Further on Rising Recession Risk As the tides of economic fortune ebb and flow, a spectre of recession looms over the horizon, whispering in the rustling of Treasury yields and the shifting sands of macroeconomic indicators. Recent economic data has painted a complex tableau of financial uncertainty. From declining PMI figures to a palpable deceleration in GDP growth, the economic forecast has shifted, stirring speculations that Fed may be forced to cut rates should the US economy slip into recession. Uncertainty around the timeline of rate cuts plus a potential looming recession are causing the yield curve to invert once more. Investors can obtain exposure using CME yield futures with a reward to risk ratio of 1.6x. RECESSION SIGNALS ARE FLASHING AGAIN Monetary policy winds are starting to shift once more. Recent economic data, including PMI figures, and a sharply weaker GDP in the US have led participants to increase their expectations that the US Federal Reserve (“Fed”) will have to relent and cut rates in 2024. Source: CME FedWatch Over the past month, probability of a rate cut at 7/Nov policy meeting has increased from 42% to 47%. More notably, the probability of a second rate cut at the 18/December policy remains slightly elevated over the past week at 35%. Typically, rate cuts suggest that the Fed is nearing its dual goals of maximum employment and stable prices. However, current expectations for rate cuts may stem from distinct reasons. Inflation remains persistent. Fed officials remain steadfast in their battle against inflation. But inflation is stalled at 3%. Higher rates are instead starting to impact economic growth. As rates remain high, the odds of an economic slowdown rise. On 4/June, job openings in the US fell to their lowest level in three years. On 31/May, the Chicago PMI indicator fell sharply into what is a recession territory. Q1 GDP was revised lower last month. Weak consumption data from the US has led to expectations that GDP growth during Q2 may remain slow. On a similar note, the household jobs survey showed full-time employment declining by 625k in May while part-time employment rose by just 286k. However, not all jobs’ data was negative. The establishment jobs survey showed strong job creation at 272k far higher than expectations of 182k. Additionally, wage growth was above expectations as weekly average earnings rose 0.4% compared to 0.2% in April. The household survey counts each individual only once, regardless of how many jobs they have. In contrast, the establishment survey counts employees multiple times if they appear on more than one payroll. Many observers have been calling for a recession in the US ever since the Fed raised rates to their highest level in 23 years. Yet the US economy has remained robust. Part of the reason behind the resilience has been the savings cushion that US consumers built up during the pandemic. However, with the strong inflation during the past year, most of that cushion has been spent. Consumers have already started to shift their consumption habits and credit usage (and delinquency) has been on the rise. Credit card delinquencies are at the highest level in more than a decade and personal savings built up during the pandemic have been exhausted. ECONOMIC DATA DRIVES BOND YIELDS LOWER AND RE-INVERTS YIELD CURVE Throughout the past 10 days, economic releases in the US have driven bond yields consistently lower. Recent non-farm payrolls data drove a rally in yields. Economic releases have also driven a decline in the yield spreads resulting in further inversion of the yield curve. Since the release of the PCE price index and Chicago PMI on Friday 30/May, the 10Y-2Y spread has declined by nine basis points. The 30Y-2Y spread has performed the worst since then as it stands ten basis points lower. Further, unlike the uptick in yields following NFP, the yield spreads continued to invert further, especially for the 30Y-2Y and 10Y-2Y spread. HYPOTHETICAL TRADE SETUP Historically, the yield spread between 10-year and 2-year Treasuries tends to normalize by the time a recession officially hits the US. Based on current trends, a recession, as indicated by GDP metrics, might not occur until early next year. Currently, the yield curve is deeply inverted, and recession signals are intensifying. Moreover, the possibility of a rate cut remains uncertain. This ongoing uncertainty about the policy direction is further exacerbating the inversion of the 10Y-2Y spread. Another factor to consider is the upcoming US elections. As the Fed strives to remain an independent authority, they may opt to avoid major policy moves before elections are concluded. This week is set to bring several key economic updates, including the May CPI report and the Federal Reserve's revised economic projections. These projections are expected to reveal that rate cuts, previously anticipated for 2024, might be delayed further. The volatility in economic data has made it challenging to assess the yield trends. Despite a general rise in yields, the yield curve continues to invert, particularly the 30Y-2Y spread, which has been the most adversely affected. This reflects ongoing investor concerns about long-term Treasuries as expectations for rate cuts are pushed further into the future. Source: CME CurveWatch Investors can obtain exposure to a further inversion in the 30Y-2Y spread using CME Yield futures. CME Yield futures are quoted directly in yield with a one basis point change in the yield representing a P&L of USD 10. As yield futures across various maturities represent the same notional, spread P&L calculations are equally intuitive with a one basis point change in the spread between two separate maturities also equal to USD 10. The hypothetical trade setup using the 30Y-2Y spread is described below. • Entry: -36.5 basis points (bps) • Target: -50 bps • Stop Loss: -28 bps • Profit at Target: USD 135 (13.5 bps x USD 10) • Loss at Stop: USD 85 (8.5 bps x USD 10) • Reward to Risk: 1.59x MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
CBOT_MINI:30Y1!Short
by mintdotfinance
Where is the SPX most likely headed in the coming yearsAlthough it's hard to predict what the stock market will do in the future, there is already a clear consensus on what is likely to happen. In this chart, I have plotted most predictions from big investment banks like Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley to other investors like Michael Burry. I have also calculated the average of all the predictions and plotted it on the chart. I think the most likely scenario is that we retest the lows of the Corona Virus Crisis, and then we trade sideways from there (illustrated with the red arrows). There is also the probability that we bounce off the 3000 SPX as the consensus estimates and then trade sideways from there (illustrated with blue arrows). The main reason we might trade sideways for the coming years is because of a dilemma the Federal Reserve is currently facing. Having to fight a battle between high inflation caused by quantitative easing done during the Coronavirus Crisis, and fighting said inflation by raising interest rates which will make it harder to maintain its 30 Trillion dollars of debt obligations. Likely changing back and forth till there is a deleveraging of the whole system that will last at least 3 years. And since the markets are strongly correlated to what the fed does, this will be the most likely outcome. Let me know your predictions and see if you agree more with the blue arrows or red arrows.
SP:SPXShort
by Blasik
7
Bitcoin Marketcap v Federal reserve M1A nod to @unbeldi And a updated chart Swapping the Bitcoin price to marketcap over the M1 money As BTC is a Trillion dollar asset again and was invented to be peer to peer cash It's good to compare the ratio vs the dollar. And imagine one day in the future that it may dethrone the King. Since BTC is natively digital and global (M2 is slightly larger number and the more commonly used metric @ 20.86 Trillion) The number of coins I used for the 100k & 400k price projections was 19,791,006 If you wanted to check my maths This is the current and supply and the estimate of number of coins in 10 months time.
CRYPTOCAP:BTCLong
by BallaJi
1
Interest Rates look decently strongThe 2Yr yield has paced itself recently. The 10Yr #yield is picking up steam. Both went from a bearish moving average crossover, circles, to a bullish (Data not seen here, more info in profile) 2Yr is almost @ last years bank failure rates. 10Yr has been trading mostly above. Weekly 2Yr looks like it wants to skyrocket, if breaking out of the ascending triangle pattern. 10Yr has been treading higher, along its trend line. TVC:TNX Fed is in a catch 22. Cannot raise rates, more things will break BUT it but cannot lower, inflation.
TVC:US10Y
by ROYAL_OAK_INC
EURUSD SHORTEven though this seems incredibly strange, I opted to enter for short on this pair since, after all, stop-loss orders have their place, and I trusted my eyes more than my heart. I'm just waiting for the market to tell me to jump on a sale as the price is already in my value range. Short Bias for the upcoming week. Instead of being stuck with the indicators, trade using Fed Data. - --------------- **First Scenario - Short:** Initial Target: $1.07863 Entry: $1.08692 Stoploss: $1.08740 **Second Scenario - Long:** Initial Target: $1.0935 Entry: $1.0875 Stoploss: $1.0869 - --------------- Take into consideration: Psychological Resistance at $1.090 Psychological Support at $1.075 - --------------- NFA DYOR - --------------- Good Luck! ⚠️Caution: Just because I've set my buy and sell position Settings or drawn direction lines on my chart doesn't indicate I've opened a position or am obsessed with a particular bias. This is only a forecast; I don't trade when the price reaches my level; I have rules of engagement. Perhaps the most crucial element is 🆘RISK MANAGEMENT🆘.
Short
by irfanp056
Japan’s Q1 GDP Falls Faster Than Expected• Japan’s Q1 GDP falls faster than expected • Data raises questions about when the BOJ will lift interest rates. • Yen's weakness complicates picture for BoJ • Japan's real wages fell for a 24th consecutive month Japan's economy fell faster than expected in the first quarter. Preliminary gross domestic product data from the Cabinet Office on Thursday showed Japan's economy shrank -2% annualized in January to March from the prior quarter, faster than the 1.5% drop seen in a Reuters poll of economists. In the first quarter of this year, private consumption, which is the largest component of GDP, dropped by an annualized -2.7% from the previous three-month period. Corporate investment fell -3.2%. Exports fell 18.7%, while imports also fell -12.8%, resulting in a decline in net exports. Private residential investment dropped -9.8% from the previous quarter. Downwardly revised data showed GDP barely grew in the fourth quarter of 2023, due to downgrades to capital expenditure estimates. Japan’s GDP Growth. Source: Japan’s Cabinet Office Data raises questions about when the BoJ will lift interest rates The BoJ raised interest rates for the first time since 2007 in March, and persistently high inflation may pave the way for another move. There are signs of a division among ruling Liberal Democratic Party members over whether the central bank should hike again or keep rates low to smooth financing. The BoJ is paying close attention to whether demand-driven inflation, backed by strong wage growth, is taking root in Japan. Yen's weakness complicates picture for BoJ A weaker yen has created a two-speed economy in Japan, with the export and tourism sectors broadly benefiting from a more competitive exchange rate. However, households and small businesses are squeezed by inflated costs of imported goods. The yen's weakness complicates the question of whether the BoJ should maintain its monetary stimulus or continue to unwind it. • Japan's real wages fall for 24th consecutive month When real wage growth remains negative, it's hard to expect strong private consumption. The weakening of domestic demand coincides with inflation outpacing wage growth. This comes despite the annual wage negotiations in the spring between labor unions and management yielding the best outcome in three decades after major companies weighed the impact of the recent bout of cost-push inflation and agreed to hike pay. Real wage growth, seen as crucial for Japan to completely emerge from its long fight against deflation, has lagged behind price hikes, eroding households' purchasing power as prices for everyday goods have continued rising due to high raw material costs and a weak yen. The content published above has been prepared by CFI for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. Any view expressed does not constitute a personal recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell. The information provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation, and needs of any specific person who may receive it, and is not held out as independent investment research and may have been acted upon by persons connected with CFI. Market data is derived from independent sources believed to be reliable, however, CFI makes no guarantee of its accuracy or completeness, and accepts no responsibility for any consequence of its use by recipients.
by CFI
AUDUSD Exposed to Pivotal Support in the RBA AftermathThe Reserve Bank of Australia raised its 2024 inflation forecast on Tuesday and appeared more concerned around achieving its 2-3% target. Despite considering the case for a hike, policymakers decided to hold rates at 4.35% for fourth straight meeting. The Aussie reacted lower, as markets likely expected a more hawkish language from the RBA, given the upgraded CPI projections. At the same time, inflation persistence in the US has turned the Fed cautious towards lowering rates, pedaling the higher-for-longer narrative. Markets have pushed back the timing of such moves to beyond summer and price in just 25-50 bps worth of cuts this year. AUDUSD is now exposed to the critical confluence of supports, provided by the EMA200 and the 38.2% Fibonacci of the April low/May high advance. Daily closes below it would shift immediate bias to the downside and open the door to further losses towards 0.6464. However, the policy differential is unlikely to fuel sustained weakness and if anything, it could become supportive. The Fed is still projected to cut this year, whereas markets have priced out such moves by the RBA for around a year more and Governor Bullock did not rule out hikes. Above the EMA200 and the 38.2% Fibonacci, bulls are in control with the ability to set higher highs. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 68% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (trading as “FXCM” or “FXCM EU”), previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763). Please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this video are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interests arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed via FXCM`s website: Stratos Markets Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Europe Ltd clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Trading Pty. Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC clients please see: www.fxcm.com Past Performance is not an indicator of future results.
Long
by FXCM
S&P500 (ES) uptrend may still be intactRecent price action on S&P futures suggests a potential rollover happening now, particularly after today's sell-off. This downturn began after the index peaked at 5,333.5 on April 1, 2024. Despite this, the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting and forthcoming high-profile earnings reports, such as NVDA's in late May, add layers of uncertainty. Notably, NVDA has recently become a pivotal indicator not only for the AI and broader tech sectors but also for the general economy. Taking a longer-term perspective, the S&P futures have maintained an uptrend, connecting a support trendline from a previous low of 4,122 on October 27, 2023, to the April 19, 2024, pullback at 4,963. This suggests that the trend remains intact, possibly ready to rebound from the support line and continue its upward trajectory. In conclusion, while recent market behavior might suggest the beginning of a rollover, the increased market volatility means that stricter interpretation of technical indicators may not be as reliable until the noise subsides. Therefore, a broader perspective might be necessary to accurately assess trend behaviors. But it's important not to continuously adjust this perspective to justify an ongoing uptrend, especially considering the seasonal strategy of 'sell in May and go away,' which could still prove prudent in the coming weeks.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by cch31
THE KOG REPORT - FOMCThe KOG REPORT – FOMC This is our view for FOMC, please do your own research and analysis to make an informed decision on the markets. It is not recommended you try to trade the event if you have less than 6 months trading experience and have a trusted risk strategy in place. The markets are extremely volatile, and these events can cause aggressive swings in price. We’ve had an extremely decent week so far, together with the long that was presented to us earlier in the session today. As it stands, we’re in the 4H order region, which is why price is attempting the intra-day levels of support and resistance, while they temporarily accumulate orders. This now gives us support 2295-90, which if supported on the spike, could give the move upside into the region highlighted on the chart. It’s this level that needs to be monitored closely and if the set up allows with a clean resistance, a move downside breaking the 2300 level again could be available. With events like this, there is usually a flip and it’s unexpected. So expect the market to spike either way collecting liquidity. We would also say, the trade usually comes after the event, so it’s best to wait for them to move the market to where they want, then look for a clean set up. Please note, these are key levels, if broken above, we can correct the move from yesterday and end up closer to 2390 than 2255 end of the week. Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment, and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated. As always, trade safe. KOG
FX:XAUUSD
by KnightsofGold
13
NAS100 Upbeat after Fed Volatility & Ahead of AppleThe tech-heavy index exhibited two-way action on Wednesday as markets reacted to the Fed outcome. The central bank acknowledged the lack of progress towards the 2% inflation target and Chair Powell added that recent hot reports have not given officials greater confidence towards this goal. Along with resilient labor market and strong economy, the bar for a pivot is high and markets have pared down their expectations, now pricing in just one cut this year, likely in the last quarter. These factors weigh on NAS100, which has moved below the EMA200 and the daily Ichimoku Cloud. It is vulnerable to the 38.2% Fibonacci of the October-March advance, but strong catalyst would be required for deeper correction. On the other hand, NAS100 is upbeat today and has already defended the aforementioned crucial level. It has the opportunity to return above the EMA200, reestablish the bullish momentum and pursue new record highs (18,495). Creeping fears of potential backtrack to rate hikes were assuaged, as Chair dismissed them, along with concerns of stagflation, following some weak economic data. Markets now turn to Friday’s employment data and another strong print would reinforce the higher-for-longer prospects. Investors also await Apple’s earning on the Thursday, which come at challenging period and the stock is close to bear territory. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 68% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (trading as “FXCM” or “FXCM EU”), previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763). Please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this video are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interests arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed via FXCM`s website: Stratos Markets Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Europe Ltd clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Trading Pty. Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC clients please see: www.fxcm.com Past Performance is not an indicator of future results.
FX:NAS100
by FXCM
#Treasury Yields are they going to over 7% !!!Interest rate bull and bear markets can run for many years before they change direction. Currently the yield curve is the lowest it has ever been and is still declining. The long term charts above are strongly suggesting that the bear market in interest rates ended during the pandemic crash low in 2020 after 39 years of decline. This will have major consequences if the #Economy is unable to whether a higher cost of capital and Gives big money managers to park their money in a risk free asset and earn #yield treasury notes are any #bond with a less than 2 year maturation.
TVC:TNXLong
by BallaJi
GOLD XAUUSD SELLGold prices could plummet if the Federal Reserve fails to enact anticipated rate cuts, particularly amidst widespread expectations for such actions. Here's why: Market Expectations: Investors often base their decisions on expectations, including anticipated actions by central banks like the Federal Reserve. If there's a widespread belief that the Fed will cut interest rates to stimulate the economy or combat inflation, investors may adjust their portfolios accordingly, including buying gold as a hedge against potential economic uncertainties or inflationary pressures. Pricing In Expectations: Financial markets typically "price in" expectations, meaning they incorporate anticipated events into current asset prices. In the case of gold, if investors expect rate cuts and buy gold in anticipation, the price of gold may already reflect these expectations. However, if the expected rate cuts don't materialize, the rationale for holding gold as a hedge against potential economic risks or inflation diminishes, leading investors to sell off their gold holdings. Disappointment and Market Reaction: If the Federal Reserve decides not to cut interest rates despite widespread expectations for such action, it could disappoint investors who had positioned themselves for a rate cut. This disappointment could trigger a sell-off in gold and other assets that were bought in anticipation of rate cuts. Additionally, the lack of rate cuts may signal to investors that the Fed is less concerned about economic risks or inflation than previously thought, further dampening demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Shift in Market Sentiment: Market sentiment can quickly shift based on unexpected central bank actions or economic developments. If the Federal Reserve's decision not to cut rates is interpreted as a sign of confidence in the economy or a belief that inflationary pressures are transitory, investors may become less inclined to hold gold as a hedge. This shift in sentiment could accelerate the decline in gold prices as investors reevaluate their investment strategies. In summary, if the Federal Reserve fails to cut interest rates despite widespread expectations for such action, gold prices could decline as investors adjust their portfolios and reassess the need for gold as a hedge against economic risks and inflation.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by ZILATRADES
EURUSD Struggles at Key Resistance Ahead of the FedThe pair has managed to stage a rebound from its 2024 lows and reacts positively to today’s preliminary data from Eurozone, which showed Q1 GDP expansion and persistence in headline inflation. As such, the common currency continues its effort to surpass the pivotal resistance confluence, provided by the EMA200 and the 38.2% Fibonacci of the March-April slump. Successful outcome would negate the downside bias and bring 1.0885 in the spotlight. However, we are cautious around the ascending prospects. The path of least resistance is down, technically and fundamentally. A rejection of the aforementioned critical region would reaffirm the bearish bias and open the door to lower lows (1.0600). The monetary policy differential is unfavorable and EZ core CPI continued to decelerate. The European Central Bank is looking to change tack and slash rates as early as June, dictated by weak growth and progress on inflation. Its US counterpart on the other hand, has adopted a conservative approach due to strong economy, resilient labor market and persistent price pressures that raise the bar for a pivot. The next leg of the move will likely be determined by Wednesday’s policy decision from Fed officials and since no move is projected, investors will be looking for any updates around their rate intentions. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 68% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (trading as “FXCM” or “FXCM EU”), previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763). Please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this video are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interests arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed via FXCM`s website: Stratos Markets Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Europe Ltd clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Trading Pty. Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC clients please see: www.fxcm.com Past Performance is not an indicator of future results.
Short
by FXCM
USD/JPY: Breaching 158.500 signals potential run to 160? USD/JPY: Breaching 158.500 signals potential run to 160? The JPY weakened below 158.200 against the dollar. It is the first time since May 1990 we have seen this exchange rate for the USD/JPY. The reason is being attributes to the Bank of Japan keeping interest rates unchanged last Friday. With the USD/JPY comfortably above both the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, a break above 158.500 might propel it towards 160.000. Market attention remains fixed on whether Japanese authorities will intervene in currency markets to stem the yen's decline. Other than this, short-term USD/JPY movements may depend on this week's US and Japanese economic data. In Japan, focus lies on April's consumer confidence, unemployment rate, retail sales, and industrial production, along with insights from the BoJ's meeting minutes. better-than-expected figures could boost demand for the Japanese yen. However, most eyes will be on the US Fed's upcoming decision this week, with expectations for maintaining record-level borrowing costs, potentially pushing the yen further down. The Fed decision will be followed by the non-farm payrolls report, expected to show a rise of 210K jobs in April, though slower than March's 303K. Better-than-expected figures here could affect investor outlooks on a September Fed rate adjustment, and giving the USD/JPY more reason to target the 160.000 level.
by BlackBull_Markets
Bitcoin, The FED, interest rates and Banks CrashingThought I would post this the day after we hear that REPUBLIC FIRST BANK has gone in to receivership in the USA. This is just 5 weeks after the FED's BTFP Banking Suppor tprogram ended. Thsi si likely to be the first of more and the question is now, how will the FED react on Wednesday, 1 st may at their next interest rate meeting. To Pivot now would be an interesting and possibly catastrophic choice and yet, to keep rates as they are, Keeps th epressure on and so we will see more Banks Falling. Why is a Pivot now a bad move ? Because, Historicaly, Markets Crash on Pivots. Will that happen in Crypto ? We have No data to look at, We have Never been in this situation before................ Keep your eyes open on Wednesday
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Orriginal
$ DXY and FED meeting next week - a push higher ?DXY $ maybe one to watch over the next couple of Weeks as it seems to be approching Strong support. Fundimentals, as ever, Will pay a huge part in this and so we wait. Today we have personnale spending and income Data BUT the real Biggie is on 1st May next week when we have the FED Interest rate decision made public. If that remains the same ....or rises......then the $ will push higher. That in turn will take moeny out of other markets......But maybe not #Bitcoin too much. We shall have to wait and see But watch this later today. DXY usualy tries to push higher on a Friday to close for the weekend on a high.
TVC:DXY
by Orriginal
Fed decision preview: Zero rate cuts and EURUSD parity in 2024? Fed decision preview: Zero rate cuts and EURUSD parity in 2024? Expectations point to the Federal Open Market Committee maintaining interest rates at their current levels in the upcoming decision slated for May 1. However, fixed income markets suggest the possibility of rate cuts surfacing in either the July or September meetings of the FOMC. Nonetheless, Thursday’s economic activity report ushered in another jolt for investors and Federal Reserve policymakers. They had been bracing for lower inflation to pave the way for substantial interest-rate cuts this summer. The core price index for personal consumption expenditures in the United States, excluding food and energy, surged by an annualized 3.7% during the first quarter of 2024. This marks an acceleration from the previous three-month period's 2% increase, surpassing the estimated 3.4%. Recent remarks by Fed Chair Jerome Powell and other policymakers have solidified the conviction that rate cuts won’t materialize in the near term. In fact, there's been discussion about the potential for further hikes if inflation fails to abate. Given the challenging scenario, where higher interest rates don't appear to be substantially denting the economy, the question arises: What if policymakers opt to maintain current rates throughout 2024 without any cuts? With the divergence in outlook from the Fed and the ECB, can we expect parity to be reached again in the EUR/USD this year?
by BlackBull_Markets