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Red-hot pound punches past 1.41, GDP nextThe pound is in positive territory on Tuesday. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.4144, up 0.20%. The Scottish National Party (SNP) handily won the Scottish election, but investors sighed with relief as the pro-independence party came up just short of a majority. This means that plans for another referendum on Scottish independence may be delayed, which should ensure political stability for the time being. The pound responded with huge gains of close to 1.0% on Monday. The British government has given the green light for a further easing of health restrictions, as of May 17. The positive news on the Covid front has also been bullish for the streaking pound. Attention has shifted to UK GDP for the first quarter, which will be released on Wednesday (6:00 GMT). The market is bracing for a contraction in GDP. This would reflect the lockdown that was in effect for much of the first quarter and had a chilling effect on economic activity. The consensus stands at -1.6% (MoM) and -6.1% (YoY). Inflation concerns have been dominating the financial markets, sending equities lower and boosting the safe-haven US dollar. The US and China, the world's two biggest economies and both showing signs of rising inflationary pressures, which is causing jitters for investors. In China, PPI climbed 6.8% (YoY), above the 6.5% forecast and up sharply from 4.4% in March. The US releases April inflation numbers on Wednesday. The consensus stands at 2.3% for Core CPI (YoY), compared to 1.6% in March. If Core CPI matches or exceeds the estimate, investors may be of the opinion that the Fed may have to tighten policy sooner rather than later, which would be bullish for the US dollar. GBP/USD is testing resistance at 1.4137, followed by resistance at 1.4269. There are support lines at 1.3859 and 1.3727
by OANDA
1
Will Japan Household Spending rebound?The Japanese yen is drifting in the Monday session. In North American trade, USD/JPY is trading at 108.67, up 0.05%. The yen has posted four winning weeks out of the past five, as the US dollar continues to struggle. Still, the US/Japan rate differential continues to support USD/JPY, which remains in no man's land slightly below the 109 level. Japan will release Household Spending (GMT 23:30), and the consumer spending indicator is expected to rebound after two straight declines of 6.1% and 6.6%. The March release is projected to show a gain of 1.7%, which would mark a five-month gain. The market was gearing up for a blowout party from US nonfarm payrolls on Friday. In the end, however, the economy created just 266 thousand jobs, nowhere near the estimate of 990 thousand. There were expectations that NFP would break above the one-million mark, and some analysts even projected a reading above the two-million mark. The unemployment rate rose to 8.1%, up from 7.8%. Still, the news was not all bad, as wage growth rebounded with a strong gain of 0.7%, after a read of -0.1% beforehand. The US economy remains in good shape, and investors are unlikely to let a weak NFP report ruin optimism over the economy. The Fed has maintained a dovish stance, even with the economy posting strong numbers. The disappointing nonfarm payroll report appears to have justified the Fed's position, but investors will be keeping a close eye on this week's inflation numbers. A sharp rise in inflation could renew calls for the Fed to consider tapering. On the other hand, if the upcoming inflation numbers are weaker than expected, there will be less pressure on the Fed to change its accommodative policy. USD/JPY is facing resistance at 109.42. Above, there is resistance at 110.24. On the downside, there is support at 108.06 and 107.52
by OANDA
Aussie steadies after slide, RBA nextThe Australian dollar is steady in the Monday session. In European trade, AUD/USD is trading at 0.7722, up 0.14%. The US dollar showed some broad strength on Friday, and AUD/USD fell 0.70% and briefly fell below the 0.77 level. The greenback was supported by inflows from international investors who snapped up US Treasuries in month-end rebalancing flows. Strong US numbers on Friday also gave the US dollar a boost. The Core PCE Price Index, which is considered the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, rose to 0.4% in March, up from 0.1% beforehand. This is another indication of inflationary pressures, as the US economy continues to sprint at a fast pace. The Fed has stated more than once that any spike in inflation will be temporary, but it's not at all clear that the market has bought into this stance. If inflation numbers continue to rise in the coming months, the Fed may have to acknowledge that higher inflation levels are not a passing event. On Friday, Fed Governor Robert Kaplan, who is not a voting member, said straight out the Fed needs to be talking about tapering its asset-purchase program. The Fed has insisted that it needs to keep its foot to the pedal as the economy continues to recover, but there's a good chance that other Fed members agree with Kaplan. The US economy has been reeling off impressive numbers, and the April nonfarm payroll report is expected in at 975 thousand. A print above the one million mark is certainly achievable and would provide ammunition to the view that the Fed should review its current policy. The RBA is facing a similar economic picture to that of the Fed - a rapidly improving economy and strong growth. Like the Fed, the RBA has implemented a highly accommodative policy in order to support the economy's recovery from the Covid pandemic. The central bank holds its policy meeting on Tuesday (4:30 GMT), and the bank is expected to maintain interest rates at 0.10% and its QE programme of A$100 billion. Unless there is a surprise announcement, I would expect the RBA meeting to be a non-event for the Australian dollar. On the upside, 0.7787 is the next resistance line. Above, there is resistance at 0.7864. On the downside, there are support levels at 0.7665 and 0.7620
by OANDA
Macro - Inflationary ShockModel Forecast for Inflation: - Model has forecasted an inflationary shock a la oil & Volcker in 1970s-1980s. - The date is November-December 2021 or 2022. - The nature of the event has yet to be determined, but it is speculated that the shortage will be in liquidity itself. - This will be followed by aggressive global monetary policies to combat stagflation, but a period of deflation will follow. - It is likely that a financial lockdown, and a restructuring of the global financial system will occur. GLHF, DPT Disclaimer: We absolutely do not provide financial advice in any shape or form. We do not recommend investing based on our opinions and strongly cautions that securities trading and investment involves high risk and that you can lose a lot of money. Loss of principal is possible. We do not recommend risking money you cannot afford to lose. We do not guarantee future performance nor accuracy in historical analyses. We are not registered investment advisors. Our ideas, opinions and statements are not a substitute for professional investment advice. We provide ideas containing impersonal market observations and our opinions. Our speculations may be used in preparation to form your own ideas.
FX_IDC:XAGUSDLong
by UnknownUnicorn1043646
1
USDCHF to Bottom Out Soon The dollar depreciated yesterday and is currently headed towards the 100-day MA (in blue). Notice that the latter is threading near the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level at 0.90347, which is where the downswing is likely to bottom out. The bearish correction is likely to take the form of an ABC structure given that it emerged from the preceding 1-5 impulse wave pattern, as postulated by the Elliott Wave theory. This is further substantiated by the fact that the correction appeared from the 61.8 per cent Fibonacci retracement at 0.94670. Expect the USDCHF to consolidate in a range between the 23.6 per cent Fibonacci and the 38.2 per cent Fibonacci retracement at 0.92000 in the medium turn, taking the form of said ABC correction. The significance of this consolidation range is further exemplified by the fact that it is currently encompassed by the 100-day MA and the 50-day MA (in green). The current trending sentiment is elucidated by the ADX indicator, which has been threading above the 25-point benchmark since the 26th of February. Accordingly, the bullish upswing is likely to be restarted after the price tests the 23.6 per cent Fibonacci for a second time - point C.
Long
by Trendsharks
Important Level For DXYHi all! I think we are facing a pivot for the DXY that could bring significant changes to global markets. IF the DXY doesn't Hold the 90 level and bounce higher, THEN I believe we are looking at new highs across the risk asset spectrum with the DXY going into tail spin and falling out of this macro down trend channel, possibly to the low 80's even. However, IF DXY does hold the 90 level and bounces with confidence, I believe it will be the sell signal and risk off signal across the risk asset spectrum. And of course, this could send DXY well above the down trend channel its been in. CPG's are planning on raising prices by an avg of 10% next few months so inflation is real regardless of what the market makers *cough cough* sorry I mean Fed chair persons think are going on in the economy. All my models had 10% inflation baked into them as an assumption back in Dec. '20, and subsequently they priced the SPY at 420. We keep getting close to it and seem to be floating there in a state of euphoria, no? Idk, but sounds like 420 to me haha. Hoping we have a correction to ease pressures on the system, but am worried about a crash tbh. I think risk is expensive and safety is worthless so buy insurance and go ham fam! My ideas are strictly my opinions and are not advice or recommendations. Please make every effort to understand all risks associated with investing or trading any security before purchase or sale. Not Financial advice. Not financial recommendation. Just my personal opinions. JG
TVC:DXYLong
by deadsquare214
8
Head And Shoulders Pattern on the EURUSD The EURUSD appears to be developing a major H&S pattern, which is typically taken to indicate emerging bearish reversals, ahead of FED's April policy meeting. The expected upsurge in volatility later today and tomorrow (advance U.S. GDP data scheduled for release) would demonstrate whether such an H&S pattern is really in the making. Notice that the Neckline is positioned at the massively important psychological support level at 1.20000, which serves the role of a prominent turning point. That is why a potentially decisive breakdown below the H&S's Neckline would confirm the beginning of a new downtrend. The 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level serves as the first major target for such a downtrend.
Short
by Trendsharks
Is Tesla's Rally Running on Fumes?Tesla is set to post its quarterly earnings after today's market close. While the market expects the company to deliver robust performance, the continuation of the underlying rally is far from certain. The general stock market rally has been showing signs of weakness over the past several weeks amidst rising U.S. yields and fears of soaring inflation. Meanwhile, FED's policy decision on Wednesday could bring further doubt and volatility, which could then jolt Tesla's uptrend. Today's earnings data could end up being the catalyst for a new correction; however, the underlying upswing may still attempt to test the psychologically significant resistance level at 800.00 before such a correction takes place. The Fibonacci retracement levels signify the likely targets for such a dropdown
NASDAQ:TSLA
by Trendsharks
HOLY WEEK AND NUCLEAR WEDNESDAY !! HOLY WEEK AND NUCLEAR WEDNESDAY! 10:30 p.m. Warm morning sun, some nature chirping from the birds around, a great time to enjoy a coffee. Start HOLY WEEK! Financially speaking, after a recovering Friday, it would be natural for the green to flood the Square today. And maybe it will be! But we can't help but glance over the cup of coffee at the situation of the week that seems hectic. First of all, thanks to reports, a number of world giants must be in the works. But this is not necessarily the problem, because they are expected to report well. The problem would be Wednesday, a really explosive day. Let's see why: 1. Biden's speech. Nothing can be more worrying than Biden's speech at Wednesday's joint congressional session, where he is expected to reveal the first details of his widely reported tax hike so far, planned for the wealthiest of Americans. The president of all wants an unlikely 43.4% for the richest Americans, bringing combined state and federal taxes to places like New York and California to over 50% !! No matter how difficult it will be for him to impose in the congress, in the short term the Market will react to rumors. 2. OPEC meeting Normally this meeting would sanctify the plans established a month ago if no other events happen in the last period. But ... didn't it happen ?! Well, India is the world's third largest consumer of oil, on infusions and fans literally, after a series of days with over 300k infections / 24 hours. Japan, the 4th largest consumer, also has problems with Covid ul. Iran lags behind with progress in talks with US, which may mean it will export oil again sometime in the not too distant future 3. EDF meeting Originally categorized as a NON Event, it could be an influence in various directions. Of all, I would mention the Precious Metals Market. In a long-awaited recovery, they have already stumbled at the first resistance, diverted by various external factors. One could be Powell, who enters an interview with Reuters on Tuesday, said the central bank will limit any exceeding of its inflation target. In any case, metal prices are expected to consolidate, or even decline, until Powell's post-Fed press conference. As a result, we have 3 events + quarterly reports, which can send almost any sector in almost any direction, affecting virtually the entire market. Normally, near such confluences, investors stand a little aside. Normally I said, but is it a period of normalcy !? Of course not !!! So we have 2 interesting days until Wednesday, when we hoped we would have: EVERYTHING ABNORMALLY GREEN !!!
NYSE:DOW
by Viorex
HIGHER FOOD PRICES!Coffee is one of the most consumed and traded commodities on earth, and it's price is about to explode! FUNDAMENTALS: -Despite quadrillions of currency units (DEMAND) created over the past 50 years, coffee prices are only slightly higher...this is because of the massive amount of coffee production around the world (SUPPLY) keeping a ceiling on prices. Debased fiat currencies (DEMAND) will prevent any significantly lower prices and make higher prices inevitable. -Currency creation however is being ramped up to unprecedented levels (DEMAND) and increased government intervention around the world will hinder continued global production (SUPPLY). -Weakness in the dollar relative to the currencies of coffee-producing nations (DEMAND) will bid up prices. -Rising energy prices will increase costs (SUPPLY), pushing prices higher. -A period of record cold temperatures linked to the Grand Solar Minimum will lead to slowing and potentially shrinking production (SUPPLY) TECHNICALS: -The 10$ price range of 115-125$ per contract with the most volume has been successfully absorbed. -A massive amount of volume was traded at 50-75% lower prices from the 2011 peak, at the lowest levels in over a decade. -A price-volume divergence has occurred, as during the correction from the 2011 peak volume continually increased. -The corrective descending wedge from the 2011 peak has been broken and retested by bullish reversal candlestick patterns. -Volatility has continually decreased for over two decades as prices have remained subdued, therefore an inevitable increase in volatility will likely occur during/after a significant increase in prices.
ICEUS:KC1!Long
by UnknownUnicorn4195243
Pound surges, UK job data loomsThe British pound has soared at the start of the week. Currently, GDP/USD is trading at 1.3961, up 0.86% on the day. The British pound is on a torrid pace. The currency jumped 0.99% last week and has padded those gains on Monday. GBP/USD is closing in on the 1.40 level, which has psychological significance. This line has been tested several times this year, and breaking above it could provide the pound with further upside momentum. The US dollar is broadly lower on Monday, as the market appears to have internalized the Fed's message that any increase in inflation will be only temporary. This has led to a significant reduction in expectations of a rate hike in the near future, which has seen the pound, euro and yen register sharp gains against the greenback. As well, with a lack of data on Monday to direct the currency markets, the focus is on sentiment, which is risk-on. This is another factor which as contributed to the dollar's retreat on Monday. The UK releases key employment data for March on Tuesday (6:00 GMT). Wage growth is projected to remain strong at 4.7%, while unemployment rolls are expected to fall to 24.5 thousand, after a sharp gain of 86.6 thousand beforehand. With the UK continuing to ease lockdown rules, the April employment numbers could be significantly better. Taking a look ahead at the economic calendar, the UK releases CPI on Wednesday (6:00 GMT). The extended lockdown in the UK has led to significant pent-up demand, which is expected to result in higher inflation. The estimate for headline inflation in March stands at 0.8%, compared to the current level of 0.4%. Earlier in the day GBP/USD broke above resistance levels at 1.3898 and 1.3956. Above, there is resistance at 1.4070. On the downside, there is support at 1.3726.
by OANDA
Will Business Confidence shake up sleepy AUD?The Australian dollar has started the week with a whimper. Currently, AUD/USD is currently trading at 0.7620. Australia releases the NAB Business Confidence early on Tuesday (1:30 GMT). Business confidence continues to show stronger optimism, rising to 16 in February, up from 10 beforehand. The Australian economy has recovered remarkably well from the Covid-19 downturn - unemployment has dropped below 6% and commodity prices are rising as the global economy finds its footing.  A major sore point in the country's vaccine rollout. Australia had banked on the AstraZeneca vaccine for most of 26 million residents and had planned to vaccinate almost all by the end of 2021. However, with recommendations that people under 50 should not receive the AstraZeneca shot, the government has had to abandon this goal and is scrambling to find millions of Pfizer shots.   For years, US inflation has been low and off the radar of investors. With plenty of pent-up demand due to the Covid crisis, inflation has moved higher and has become a central focus for the market over the past several months. On Friday, the US released the March Producer Price Index, which measures inflation at a wholesale level.  Both the headline and core readings accelerated in March and beat the forecast. Headline inflation rose 1% MoM and 4.2% YoY  - the latter to its highest level since September 2011. Core PPI, which excludes food and energy prices, climbed 0.7% MoM and 3.1% YoY. The annual rate matched a high last seen in February 2011. With PPI numbers higher than expected, the markets are keeping a close eye on consumer inflation data (Tuesday, 12:30 GMT). If CPI beats the forecast, that could force the Federal Reserve to re-evaluate its pledge not to raise rates prior to 2024. The Fed isn't even discussing tapering its QE programme, but rising inflation could lead the Fed to reconsider reducing QE if it is concerned that the economy may overheat if it doesn't take action. AUD/USD faces resistance at 0.7668. Above, there is resistance at 0.7717. On the downside, 0.7579 is the first line of support. This is followed by support at 0.7539
by yesfish
Is the Federal Reserve using High Oil Prices to Hide Inflation?This may be a bit of a controversial post, but if you choose not to go down the rabbit hole, you can at least check out my two technical ideas. Oil is a trade we have been long since the break above $44.00. Our target was the major resistance/flip zone around $66.00 which we hit to the T: Once price hits our major flip zone, we should expect a possibility of a reversal of the trend. Oil actually is beginning to develop our favorite reversal pattern: The Head and Shoulders pattern. As you can see from the main chart of this post, $62.00 is where the right shoulder began forming. The trigger remains the breakdown. Meaning we need a daily BREAK and CLOSE below the neckline of the $57.00 zone. This would set us up for a new downtrend, with a move to $51.50. and even lower back below $50. Alternatively, here is a 4 hour chart set up: The $61.90-$62.00 zone remains key. We get a break and close above, and then we continue a move higher to $66.00, and if this breaks...Oil is moving much much higher. We should then be talking about $100 a barrel. Our job is now to be patient and await for out trigger. On the 4 hour, you can see price ranging and coiling. The daily chart trumps the 4 hour, so I think the rabbit hole is what we need to look at for the trend and market structure to be manipulated. Before I posted this idea, I have been thinking about this. Everyone is wondering where the inflation is from all the money printing. First of all, I want to cover inflation from a classical standpoint. Inflation is when the fiat currency is weakening, where it now takes more of a weaker currency to buy something, hence price increases. Recently, I have read German Economists Richard Werner's work titled "Princes of the Yen". Highly recommended for anyone wanting to understand central bank monetary policy, and economic history in general. His definition goes like this: As long as new money/credit goes to productive investment, real wages will rise and there will be no inflation. How? If money goes to productive things, more goods and services will be created, which means the economy will be improving, which means the demand for money will increase which then warrants the money that has been created/printed. The second case if more worrying...If new money/credit flows to UNPRODUCTIVE means, ie: investment in stock markets and real estate... a situation we have been seeing since 2008, there is danger for inflation because now there is more money chasing the same number of goods and services because of no increase in productivity. In the past, I have spoken about why universal basic income will need to be matched with some sort of taxes. If you just give people more money, there is now a situation with more money competing for the same amount of goods and services. The way government can control this will be through taxation...the green kind. Where perhaps rather than $1000 bucks in UBI, 50-60% will be taxed for green taxes, which the government will then use for green infrastructure projects which hopefully will be productive. So our situation currently focuses on number 2. Again, I have warned my followers about this. Stock Markets and other assets will continue moving higher even with the real economy dying because it is all about chasing yield. All central banks are attempting to weaken/kill their currencies in order to boost exports and keep asset prices higher. We have the worst of both worlds here. Most of us have seen the prices of goods increase. The Federal Reserve and other Central banks say this is not the case according to their inflation measures. The Consumer Price Index, or the CPI, is the most famous way to measure inflation. It is a basket of goods and services that represents what the typical consumer purchases regularly. Energy prices play a large part in this because many people fill up their vehicles to drive. A key thing to remember is that the Fed has said that they will normalize their balance sheet, and increase interest rates when 2% inflation is steady and NOT 'transitory'. Here is where we go down the rabbit hole. Most of us know that interest rates cannot go higher. Too much debt out there now. Generally, when inflation is moving higher, central banks would increase interest rates. Oil prices moving higher can kill two birds with one stone. If Oil moves higher, the Fed can mask inflation due to excess money by blaming Oil. Oil prices moving higher means transportation costs increase as well so it will affect food prices and other prices. CPI data will begin to reflect rising prices, but the Fed will blame Oil for this. Also, the Fed can say this inflation is 'transitory' hence why no rate hikes will follow, which means the Fed maintains confidence and saves face. Let's go down the rabbit hole even further. But before I say this, I must say that I have seen 'events' like this occur many times when commodities are at major flip zones. We should expect some sort of event to cause Oil to spike. Laugh all you will, but before I typed this post out, I have been saying this for a week or more to my private circle. What happened? The Houthi's began attacking Saudi Oil facilities with drones, the suez canal got blocked by a cargo ship, and an Indonesian oil refinery exploded because it got hit by lightning. The Fed can then use this event as a way to mask inflation. "Oh inflation has spiked not due to our monetary policy, but because of Oil. But don't worry, we won't hike interest rates because this inflation is transitory. Money printing will continue". I think this is important because financial media is talking about rate hikes in the future...but most of us know this can never happen. We are likely to go into negative rates.
OANDA:WTICOUSD
by Uncharted-FX
Bitcoin Signal Is Doing WellGood day guys! I am updating you all on this trade. We are still holding this buying signal, since last week. Make sure to push your SL into profit. I would say around the .786 fibonacci level or 57934.30 price level. This trade turned out to be tremendous for us and those who took the signal. We do see more bullish momentum to the upside, however, a good pullback could come. Remember to secure your bag. Be sure to like and leave a comment below. We appreciate you for checking out our post and remember, we will see you on the other side. Rodrick (CEO) Third Eye Traders
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by ThirdEyeTraders