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Is Tesla's Rally Running on Fumes?Tesla is set to post its quarterly earnings after today's market close. While the market expects the company to deliver robust performance, the continuation of the underlying rally is far from certain. The general stock market rally has been showing signs of weakness over the past several weeks amidst rising U.S. yields and fears of soaring inflation. Meanwhile, FED's policy decision on Wednesday could bring further doubt and volatility, which could then jolt Tesla's uptrend. Today's earnings data could end up being the catalyst for a new correction; however, the underlying upswing may still attempt to test the psychologically significant resistance level at 800.00 before such a correction takes place. The Fibonacci retracement levels signify the likely targets for such a dropdown
NASDAQ:TSLA
by Trendsharks
HOLY WEEK AND NUCLEAR WEDNESDAY !! HOLY WEEK AND NUCLEAR WEDNESDAY! 10:30 p.m. Warm morning sun, some nature chirping from the birds around, a great time to enjoy a coffee. Start HOLY WEEK! Financially speaking, after a recovering Friday, it would be natural for the green to flood the Square today. And maybe it will be! But we can't help but glance over the cup of coffee at the situation of the week that seems hectic. First of all, thanks to reports, a number of world giants must be in the works. But this is not necessarily the problem, because they are expected to report well. The problem would be Wednesday, a really explosive day. Let's see why: 1. Biden's speech. Nothing can be more worrying than Biden's speech at Wednesday's joint congressional session, where he is expected to reveal the first details of his widely reported tax hike so far, planned for the wealthiest of Americans. The president of all wants an unlikely 43.4% for the richest Americans, bringing combined state and federal taxes to places like New York and California to over 50% !! No matter how difficult it will be for him to impose in the congress, in the short term the Market will react to rumors. 2. OPEC meeting Normally this meeting would sanctify the plans established a month ago if no other events happen in the last period. But ... didn't it happen ?! Well, India is the world's third largest consumer of oil, on infusions and fans literally, after a series of days with over 300k infections / 24 hours. Japan, the 4th largest consumer, also has problems with Covid ul. Iran lags behind with progress in talks with US, which may mean it will export oil again sometime in the not too distant future 3. EDF meeting Originally categorized as a NON Event, it could be an influence in various directions. Of all, I would mention the Precious Metals Market. In a long-awaited recovery, they have already stumbled at the first resistance, diverted by various external factors. One could be Powell, who enters an interview with Reuters on Tuesday, said the central bank will limit any exceeding of its inflation target. In any case, metal prices are expected to consolidate, or even decline, until Powell's post-Fed press conference. As a result, we have 3 events + quarterly reports, which can send almost any sector in almost any direction, affecting virtually the entire market. Normally, near such confluences, investors stand a little aside. Normally I said, but is it a period of normalcy !? Of course not !!! So we have 2 interesting days until Wednesday, when we hoped we would have: EVERYTHING ABNORMALLY GREEN !!!
NYSE:DOW
by Viorex
HIGHER FOOD PRICES!Coffee is one of the most consumed and traded commodities on earth, and it's price is about to explode! FUNDAMENTALS: -Despite quadrillions of currency units (DEMAND) created over the past 50 years, coffee prices are only slightly higher...this is because of the massive amount of coffee production around the world (SUPPLY) keeping a ceiling on prices. Debased fiat currencies (DEMAND) will prevent any significantly lower prices and make higher prices inevitable. -Currency creation however is being ramped up to unprecedented levels (DEMAND) and increased government intervention around the world will hinder continued global production (SUPPLY). -Weakness in the dollar relative to the currencies of coffee-producing nations (DEMAND) will bid up prices. -Rising energy prices will increase costs (SUPPLY), pushing prices higher. -A period of record cold temperatures linked to the Grand Solar Minimum will lead to slowing and potentially shrinking production (SUPPLY) TECHNICALS: -The 10$ price range of 115-125$ per contract with the most volume has been successfully absorbed. -A massive amount of volume was traded at 50-75% lower prices from the 2011 peak, at the lowest levels in over a decade. -A price-volume divergence has occurred, as during the correction from the 2011 peak volume continually increased. -The corrective descending wedge from the 2011 peak has been broken and retested by bullish reversal candlestick patterns. -Volatility has continually decreased for over two decades as prices have remained subdued, therefore an inevitable increase in volatility will likely occur during/after a significant increase in prices.
ICEUS:KC1!Long
by UnknownUnicorn4195243
Pound surges, UK job data loomsThe British pound has soared at the start of the week. Currently, GDP/USD is trading at 1.3961, up 0.86% on the day. The British pound is on a torrid pace. The currency jumped 0.99% last week and has padded those gains on Monday. GBP/USD is closing in on the 1.40 level, which has psychological significance. This line has been tested several times this year, and breaking above it could provide the pound with further upside momentum. The US dollar is broadly lower on Monday, as the market appears to have internalized the Fed's message that any increase in inflation will be only temporary. This has led to a significant reduction in expectations of a rate hike in the near future, which has seen the pound, euro and yen register sharp gains against the greenback. As well, with a lack of data on Monday to direct the currency markets, the focus is on sentiment, which is risk-on. This is another factor which as contributed to the dollar's retreat on Monday. The UK releases key employment data for March on Tuesday (6:00 GMT). Wage growth is projected to remain strong at 4.7%, while unemployment rolls are expected to fall to 24.5 thousand, after a sharp gain of 86.6 thousand beforehand. With the UK continuing to ease lockdown rules, the April employment numbers could be significantly better. Taking a look ahead at the economic calendar, the UK releases CPI on Wednesday (6:00 GMT). The extended lockdown in the UK has led to significant pent-up demand, which is expected to result in higher inflation. The estimate for headline inflation in March stands at 0.8%, compared to the current level of 0.4%. Earlier in the day GBP/USD broke above resistance levels at 1.3898 and 1.3956. Above, there is resistance at 1.4070. On the downside, there is support at 1.3726.
by OANDA
Will Business Confidence shake up sleepy AUD?The Australian dollar has started the week with a whimper. Currently, AUD/USD is currently trading at 0.7620. Australia releases the NAB Business Confidence early on Tuesday (1:30 GMT). Business confidence continues to show stronger optimism, rising to 16 in February, up from 10 beforehand. The Australian economy has recovered remarkably well from the Covid-19 downturn - unemployment has dropped below 6% and commodity prices are rising as the global economy finds its footing.  A major sore point in the country's vaccine rollout. Australia had banked on the AstraZeneca vaccine for most of 26 million residents and had planned to vaccinate almost all by the end of 2021. However, with recommendations that people under 50 should not receive the AstraZeneca shot, the government has had to abandon this goal and is scrambling to find millions of Pfizer shots.   For years, US inflation has been low and off the radar of investors. With plenty of pent-up demand due to the Covid crisis, inflation has moved higher and has become a central focus for the market over the past several months. On Friday, the US released the March Producer Price Index, which measures inflation at a wholesale level.  Both the headline and core readings accelerated in March and beat the forecast. Headline inflation rose 1% MoM and 4.2% YoY  - the latter to its highest level since September 2011. Core PPI, which excludes food and energy prices, climbed 0.7% MoM and 3.1% YoY. The annual rate matched a high last seen in February 2011. With PPI numbers higher than expected, the markets are keeping a close eye on consumer inflation data (Tuesday, 12:30 GMT). If CPI beats the forecast, that could force the Federal Reserve to re-evaluate its pledge not to raise rates prior to 2024. The Fed isn't even discussing tapering its QE programme, but rising inflation could lead the Fed to reconsider reducing QE if it is concerned that the economy may overheat if it doesn't take action. AUD/USD faces resistance at 0.7668. Above, there is resistance at 0.7717. On the downside, 0.7579 is the first line of support. This is followed by support at 0.7539
by yesfish
Is the Federal Reserve using High Oil Prices to Hide Inflation?This may be a bit of a controversial post, but if you choose not to go down the rabbit hole, you can at least check out my two technical ideas. Oil is a trade we have been long since the break above $44.00. Our target was the major resistance/flip zone around $66.00 which we hit to the T: Once price hits our major flip zone, we should expect a possibility of a reversal of the trend. Oil actually is beginning to develop our favorite reversal pattern: The Head and Shoulders pattern. As you can see from the main chart of this post, $62.00 is where the right shoulder began forming. The trigger remains the breakdown. Meaning we need a daily BREAK and CLOSE below the neckline of the $57.00 zone. This would set us up for a new downtrend, with a move to $51.50. and even lower back below $50. Alternatively, here is a 4 hour chart set up: The $61.90-$62.00 zone remains key. We get a break and close above, and then we continue a move higher to $66.00, and if this breaks...Oil is moving much much higher. We should then be talking about $100 a barrel. Our job is now to be patient and await for out trigger. On the 4 hour, you can see price ranging and coiling. The daily chart trumps the 4 hour, so I think the rabbit hole is what we need to look at for the trend and market structure to be manipulated. Before I posted this idea, I have been thinking about this. Everyone is wondering where the inflation is from all the money printing. First of all, I want to cover inflation from a classical standpoint. Inflation is when the fiat currency is weakening, where it now takes more of a weaker currency to buy something, hence price increases. Recently, I have read German Economists Richard Werner's work titled "Princes of the Yen". Highly recommended for anyone wanting to understand central bank monetary policy, and economic history in general. His definition goes like this: As long as new money/credit goes to productive investment, real wages will rise and there will be no inflation. How? If money goes to productive things, more goods and services will be created, which means the economy will be improving, which means the demand for money will increase which then warrants the money that has been created/printed. The second case if more worrying...If new money/credit flows to UNPRODUCTIVE means, ie: investment in stock markets and real estate... a situation we have been seeing since 2008, there is danger for inflation because now there is more money chasing the same number of goods and services because of no increase in productivity. In the past, I have spoken about why universal basic income will need to be matched with some sort of taxes. If you just give people more money, there is now a situation with more money competing for the same amount of goods and services. The way government can control this will be through taxation...the green kind. Where perhaps rather than $1000 bucks in UBI, 50-60% will be taxed for green taxes, which the government will then use for green infrastructure projects which hopefully will be productive. So our situation currently focuses on number 2. Again, I have warned my followers about this. Stock Markets and other assets will continue moving higher even with the real economy dying because it is all about chasing yield. All central banks are attempting to weaken/kill their currencies in order to boost exports and keep asset prices higher. We have the worst of both worlds here. Most of us have seen the prices of goods increase. The Federal Reserve and other Central banks say this is not the case according to their inflation measures. The Consumer Price Index, or the CPI, is the most famous way to measure inflation. It is a basket of goods and services that represents what the typical consumer purchases regularly. Energy prices play a large part in this because many people fill up their vehicles to drive. A key thing to remember is that the Fed has said that they will normalize their balance sheet, and increase interest rates when 2% inflation is steady and NOT 'transitory'. Here is where we go down the rabbit hole. Most of us know that interest rates cannot go higher. Too much debt out there now. Generally, when inflation is moving higher, central banks would increase interest rates. Oil prices moving higher can kill two birds with one stone. If Oil moves higher, the Fed can mask inflation due to excess money by blaming Oil. Oil prices moving higher means transportation costs increase as well so it will affect food prices and other prices. CPI data will begin to reflect rising prices, but the Fed will blame Oil for this. Also, the Fed can say this inflation is 'transitory' hence why no rate hikes will follow, which means the Fed maintains confidence and saves face. Let's go down the rabbit hole even further. But before I say this, I must say that I have seen 'events' like this occur many times when commodities are at major flip zones. We should expect some sort of event to cause Oil to spike. Laugh all you will, but before I typed this post out, I have been saying this for a week or more to my private circle. What happened? The Houthi's began attacking Saudi Oil facilities with drones, the suez canal got blocked by a cargo ship, and an Indonesian oil refinery exploded because it got hit by lightning. The Fed can then use this event as a way to mask inflation. "Oh inflation has spiked not due to our monetary policy, but because of Oil. But don't worry, we won't hike interest rates because this inflation is transitory. Money printing will continue". I think this is important because financial media is talking about rate hikes in the future...but most of us know this can never happen. We are likely to go into negative rates.
OANDA:WTICOUSD
by Uncharted-FX
Bitcoin Signal Is Doing WellGood day guys! I am updating you all on this trade. We are still holding this buying signal, since last week. Make sure to push your SL into profit. I would say around the .786 fibonacci level or 57934.30 price level. This trade turned out to be tremendous for us and those who took the signal. We do see more bullish momentum to the upside, however, a good pullback could come. Remember to secure your bag. Be sure to like and leave a comment below. We appreciate you for checking out our post and remember, we will see you on the other side. Rodrick (CEO) Third Eye Traders
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by ThirdEyeTraders
Gold: Just some infosHi Guys, what's your view on Gold? Are we at the beginning of an uptrend like the one started in 2008 following the Global Financial Crisis or are we at the top already? Please leave a comment and a thumb up if you like the structure. Thank you for your support and for sharing your ideas. Be good!😉 Cozzamara Disclaimer: Please note that I am not a professional trader and these are my personal ideas only. The information contained in this presentation is solely for educational purposes and does not constitute investment advice. The risk of trading in securities markets can be substantial. You should carefully consider if engaging in such activity is suitable to your own financial situation. Cozzamara is not responsible for any liabilities arising from the result of your market involvement or individual trade activities. IMHO: The point of trading is to make money. To make money you must have money. Depending on the money at your disposal, you can decide what to do and how to do it. By having stops you decide how much you are willing to lose. By having targets you decide how much you want to earn. Be disciplined with your protocol and with your strategies for trading. Sometime you win, sometime you lose. Don't be greedy. Be realistic. Be wary but not afraid. Be curious. Use your brain. As long as your working process make sense and your spirit is calm, everything will be fine. Be patient and be prepared for any circumtances.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by cozzamara
3
March rate cuts had nothing to do with COVID...but the pandemic offered pretext to take dramatic action when it was already needed. When J. Powell started announcing rate cuts after the late 2019 'taper tantrum', nobody was surprised, either by the cuts or their size. These were modest cuts announced in successive FOMC releases. All seemed normal and the market appeared to take a breather on slightly lower rates. Then something peculiar happened in March 2020. Powell announced quite large rate cuts, not once, but twice, in two weeks, outside of the FOMC schedule. The pretext of course, was the pandemic, but the timing might suggest otherwise. Looking at the band of yields, you can see that the curve was already collapsing in January and February. The histogram displayed with the yield band is a composite indicator of all yield curves, each duration being weighed against the next. It appears that the rate cuts announced during FOMC after the 'taper tantrum' were insufficient to set the curve free, and it was still collapsing under higher rates. Powell needed to act quickly and aggressively. The pandemic offered the pretext of an outside threat to the economy. A one-off black swan event. This allowed taking action without having to explain that the bond market was already in deep trouble. The timing of the out-of-schedule rate cuts were both on days that the US10Y broke below key support.
TVC:US10Y
by iamroot
1
Japanese yen flirting with 109The Japanese yen is almost unchanged in the Monday session. Currently, USD/JPY is trading at 108.74, down 0.09% on the day. The Japanese yen remains vulnerable and the symbolic 109 level is under strong pressure. The dollar has had its way with the yen in 2021, as USD/JPY has jumped 5.5% this year. Last week, the pair climbed to 109.36, its highest level since June 2020. The yen is particularly sensitive to rate differentials between the US and Japan, so the increases in US yields are putting strong pressure on the Japanese currency. The 10-year Treasury yield enjoyed another strong week, rising to 1.72% on Friday. Although the 10-year bond has retreated to 1.67% on Monday, the trend remains positive for bonds, which likely spells more trouble for the shaky Japanese yen. This week has more than 100 billion dollars in government bond auctions, which will test the market's appetite for bonds following last week's Fed policy meeting. In Japan, the equity markets are sharply lower after the BoJ widened its JGB trading band and tweaked its ETF guidance at its policy meeting on Friday. BoJ Governor Kuroda didn't surprise anyone when he said that monetary easing would continue for a long time. The bank has opted to make some tweaks rather than overhaul its monetary policy, and for this reason the bank's inflation target of 2 percent is likely to remain a bridge too far for the foreseeable future. Later, the bank releases BoJ Core CPI, its preferred inflation gauge (Tuesday, 5:00 GMT). The market will be again paying close attention to the Federal Reserve this week. Later on Monday, Fed Chair Powell will participate in a panel and we'll also hear from FOMC members today and on Tuesday. Powell will testify on Tuesday and Wednesday before Congress, together with Treasury Secretary Yellen. The topic of Powell's testimony is the CARE Act for Covid relief, but investors will be looking for any comments related to higher bond yields or inflation. Any remarks in this regard from Powell or Yellen could shake up the US dollar. USD/JPY is currently range-bound. On the downside, the pair is putting pressure on support at 108.55. Close by, there is support at 108.20. There is resistance at 109.30, followed by resistance at 109.70
by OANDA
How to trade the US Dollar Index based on US FED policy actionsYesterday JPowell was very dovish. In summary, it's clear that the FED will use every tool necessary to achieve full employment. This implies that he'll let inflation run hot above 2% for a while. The recent rise in the US 10 YR yield indicates inflation is coming. However, JPowell said that he won't use tools to raise rates to follow the yield curve yet but implied that the FED may extend treasuries maturities should higher yields negatively affect unemployment numbers. Unemployment is still high. How to ride this out JPowell seems to think that the upcoming inflation will be transitional. He also expects the GDP growth to hit 6.5% by the end of this year. In addition, increasing vaccination will boost reopening economies around the world. Therefore, I expect the US Dollar to be strong for a while before heading lower. This play has the least resistance and current economic conditions support this. However, the US Dollar may immediately head lower as more money is introduced into the system. The FED will continue with QE as stimmy cheques hit banks this week.
TVC:DXYLong
by GrizzlyBearBee
SPX - Dot-Plot Eve: Diamond Top or Continuation Pattern to 4K?Diamonds serve as both continuation and, at a higher rate, reversal patterns. Both NAS and SPX have put in Diamonds to consider as we await the Fed consensus on a rate increase in 2023. It is said that the market is forward pricing instrument. The last time we saw rate hike confirmation it took the Christmas Miracle's dovish kick-save to stop the drop. Tough spot for Chairman Powell, I am having a tough time imagining a short-term winning narrative.
FX:SPX500
by Pennywick
Aussie yawns after RBA minutesThe Australian dollar is having a quiet Tuesday session. Currently, the pair is trading at 0.7744, down 0.14% on the day. The RBA minutes were a non-market mover on Tuesday, as there were no surprises from the central bank. The committee remains focused on employment and wage expectations. The minutes noted the sharp appreciation in the Australian dollar since November 2020, adding that the currency was "lower than it would have been otherwise as a result of the Bank's policies." The committee reiterated that they did not anticipate raising interest rates prior to 2024. This dovish stance is consistent with the Federal Reserve, which has said it does not plan to raise rates prior to 2023. Lowe wants to see inflation move up to the bank's target of between 2% and 3%, and only then raise rates. The federal government does not appear to share the RBA's stance on stimulus, and this divergence could become a concern for investors. The central bank recently extended its QE programme, which is a crucial component of its ultra-dovish monetary policy. However, the federal government wants stimulus to be tapered and let the private sector shoulder more of the recovery. Last week, RBA Governor Lowe acknowledged that low interest rates had fueled the housing boom, but insisted that the bank would not change its policy based on housing market considerations. As for the housing market, the House Price Index jumped 3.0% in the fourth quarter of 2020, up sharply from 0.8% beforehand. This easily beat the forecast of 1.9%. The housing market has been red-hot, and both the RBA and the government will have to keep a close eye on this sector. AUD faces resistance at 0.7832, followed by resistance at 0.7906. On the downside, there is support at 0.7652, with the next support level at 0.7546
by OANDA
Australian dollar dips, RBA minutes nextThe Australian dollar is in negative territory in the Monday session. Currently, the pair is trading at 0.7739, down 0.29% on the day. The RBA releases the minutes of its March meeting early on Tuesday (00:30 GMT). At the meeting, policymakers maintained the Cash Rate at 0.10%, where it has been pegged since November. The RBA statement pledged that the record low rates would stay in place as long as inflation remained below the target level of 2 to 3 per cent. The statement noted that the current monetary policy is "continuing to help the economy by keeping financing costs very low" and is "contributing to a lower exchange rate than otherwise". The RBA has watched with concern as the Australian dollar has appreciated sharply against the US dollar, with the Aussie punching above the symbolic 80-line earlier in March. The RBA prefers an exchange rate below the 80-level, in order to maintain price stability and protect the critical export sector. The RBA has been very clear about future monetary policy. At the March meeting, RBA Governor Lowe said that the cash rate is very likely to remain at its current level until at least 2024.” This dovish stance is consistent with the Federal Reserve, which has said it does not plan to raise rates prior to 2023. Lowe wants to see inflation move up to the bank's target of between 2% and 3%, and only then raise rates. Investors are also keeping an eye on the Federal Reserve, which holds its policy later in the week. The message to the market is expected to be dovish, given that the Fed has said it does not anticipate raising rates before 2023. With the US recovery gaining steam, investors will be particularly interested in the Fed's dot-plot, which is a signal of the Fed's expectations of future interest rate changes. AUD faces resistance at 0.7832, followed by resistance at 0.7906. On the downside, there is support at 0.7652, with the next support level at 0.7498
by OANDA