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GOLD BREAKS ASCENDING TRIANGLE OUTSometimes, you have to see the things from a different perspective, the chart of Gold against major currencies, writing this on the chart: "" TVC:GOLD/((FX_IDC:CHFUSD+FX_IDC:EURUSD+FX_IDC:GBPUSD)/3) "" you can observe that the price has successfully broken out from a long accumulation inside an ascending triangle and that it's about to break the all time high meanwhile if you look at the gold chart against dollar, there is a 4.5% remaining to reach the All time High. I have been watching gold for a while and in my opinion it can be a good investment for the coming years and taking in to account the recent actions of the FED you can see what is the store of value number one. It always was and It always will be. Just a small point, in December of 1913 the FED was created and one ounce of gold was worth 20.65$ now, today, more than 100 years later it is worth 1990$. You can see this in two ways, the gold went up a 9536.80% or the dollar went down a 98.96%. Imagine if you had keep your savings in dollars for all that time. Now, going back to the idea, as you can see in the chart, the first target of the trade is 2229$ which is the height of the triangle and I think that can be easily reached within this year. About the entry, I would recommend wait for a retest of the breakout point, but taking in to account the current situation the chances of retest are not high so to enter now can be a good option. I recommend to set a stop in 1595 because you can never be sure and the first is to preserve your capital, then grow it. Basing my opinion in the Fibonacci Levels, I think that GOLD can easily reach 4085 in the coming years as level 1.618. I hope that you found useful this idea, I will be happy to see your opinion in the comments and don't forget to give a boost if you agree.
TVC:GOLDLong
by piccard54
lets talk about halving Take your time to readCRYPTO:BTCUSD This is not a trend analysis or signal of any kind just my own speculation about what may come to happen after the halving . as we know the last cycle coincided with the fed cutting rates and the money printing going crazy like brrrrr . although we can expect at least another round of rate cuts in 2024 nothing is really guaranteed this cycle . we've been seeing consolidation in the BINANCE:BTCUSDT chart for the last couple months . now I'm not really bearish but what scares me is that last time we had the rate cuts then the halving kicked in and we gone from nearly 3k all the way to 64k before any major correction . If a sell the news event was going to occur after the halving we could expect a few weeks to a couple months of downward selling pressure on bitcoin price before major upside gains . I don't say such scenario will happen but it's better to be prepared incase of such event . what i personally do is just have 50 percent of my capital ready to invest if the markets go down as the result of a black swan event because we do have the institutional support this cycle but at the same time after about 4 years of experience in the markets i know that brokers and institutions love to liquidate the retail before major moves . So i think although the trend is bullish in the long term we might have extra volatility in the short term and it pays to be ready for any possible move . thanks for your time. use this information with due diligence.
CRYPTO:BTCUSD
by Atlas_Tradingclub
ISM Indices vs. GDP YoY% - Leading Economic IndicatorsBoth ISM Manufacturing Index and Non-Manufacturing Index vs. GDP YoY% for the US economy. ISM Manufacturing: Yellow ISM Non-Manufacturing: Blue GDP YoY%: Green/Red ISM Manufacturing currently signaling contraction with a level below 50 and the momentum seems lower. Non-Manufacturing Index is likely to follow the same path although currently signaling growth, but less than before. GDP YoY% could potentially experience a slow-down within the next 6 Months to a Year. The FED has being somewhat more Dovish on the latest speech, as they're seeing a negative outcome in keeping Interest Rates higher for much longer.
ECONOMICS:USBCOI
by Kels
Undervalued Dollar? Democrats' Influence on Rate Cut PlansUndervalued Dollar? Democrats' Influence on Powell's Rate Cut Plans Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to present his semi-annual monetary policy testimony to the House and Senate starting this Wednesday. The market will be looking for Powell to provide a more specific timeline for interest rate cuts. Currently, the market is pricing in three interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year, with the first expected in June. However, the market is likely to be disappointed, with Powell keeping tight-lipped and echoing the sentiments of other Fed officials, suggesting that the first rate cut may occur "later this year." Although the market might be disappointed by the lack of a clear timeline, it will likely take no news as good news though and have no reason to amend their forecast to any time later than June. This could be undervaluing the US dollar, as the market overlooks “higher for even longer”. When the market finally comes to terms with this, targets for a stronger USD could include those levels designated on the chart. What could break Powell's tight lips is pressure from Democrats, who could advocate for interest rate cuts to support the strength of the economy in an election year.
by BlackBull_Markets
Upcoming FED actions and Bitcoin - English and FrenchIn the next few weeks we have some MAJOR things happening in the world of the $ and it WILL have an impact on Bitcoin and the rest of the Markets. On the 12 March, the FED Support program that was introduced 12 months ago to support the American banking system, Ends. This could lead to a $300Billion recall which could in turn, cause Bank Runs. The Expectation is currently that the FED Will NOT recall these Debts yet. A Week Later, we have the FED announcing its next step about Rate Rises, which is expected to be to leave them as they are for now. Despite the Expected "easy Time", I have little doubt that the FED Will do what ever it can to destabilise the surging Crypto Market if it can do this with out damaging other Markets. End of the day, the FEDERAL RESERVE is there to protect the BANKING SYSTEM. Never forget that ************************ Au cours des prochaines semaines, des choses MAJEURES se produiront dans le monde du $ et cela aura un impact sur Bitcoin et le reste des marchés. Le 12 mars prend fin le programme de soutien de la FED, introduit il y a 12 mois pour soutenir le système bancaire américain. Cela pourrait conduire à un rappel de 300 milliards de dollars, ce qui pourrait à son tour provoquer des paniques bancaires. On s’attend actuellement à ce que la FED ne rappelle PAS encore ces dettes. Une semaine plus tard, la FED annonce sa prochaine étape en matière de hausse des taux, qui devrait les laisser tels quels pour le moment. Malgré le « moment facile » attendu, je n'ai aucun doute sur le fait que la FED fera tout ce qu'elle peut pour déstabiliser le marché en plein essor de la cryptographie si elle peut le faire sans endommager les autres marchés. En fin de compte, la RÉSERVE FÉDÉRALE est là pour protéger le SYSTÈME BANCAIRE. N'oublie jamais cela
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Orriginal
U.S Core PCE (FEDS FAVOURITE METRIC)U.S Core PCE (FEDS FAVOURITE METRIC) Rep: 2.8% ✅ Slight decrease as Expected ✅ Exp: 2.8% Prev: 2.9% U.S. Headline PCE Rep: 2.4% ✅ Notable Decrease Expected ✅ Exp: 2.4% Prev: 2.6% Both Headline & Core PCE have come in lower and as expected; ✅ Core decreased from 2.9% to 2.8% ✅ Headline PCE decreased from 2.6% to 2.4% Historical Core PCE Norms On the chart you can see that since 1990 the typical Core PCE range is between 1 - 3% (red dotted lines on chart - green area). We are slowly getting back down into this more historically moderate level. We have fallen below the 3% level and down into the historically moderate zone for PCE levels. The Federal Reserve have advised that Core PCE is expected to decline to 2.2% by 2025 & finally reach its 2% target in 2026. At this rate we might reach 2% a little sooner than that. For the full breakdown of the Core and Headline PCE and to know the differences between PCE and CPI, please review the Macro Monday I previously released which explains it all (see below link). PUKA
ECONOMICS:USCPCEPIAC
by PukaCharts
The ECB balance sheet vs the FEDThe head of the European Central Bank #ECB Madame Lagarde claims the #ECB is at a different point in time to the Federal Reserve #FED. She claims it is premature to talk about winding down the Quantitative Easing (#QE) as the Fed has indicated a schedule to roll back liquidity. The graph indicates otherwise interestingly the EUD USD liquidity indicates the Fed continues to fund the ECB balance sheet therefore QE inflation has no end during 2022.
ECONOMICS:EUCBBSShort
by edrodven
5
Economy of the last 100 years resumed Gold and Purchasing PowerThis is just a simple observation of what happened with Gold in the last 100 years. Here I show some important economic events highlighting the purchasing power with a red line. When you open a GOLD chart, you can look at the trend and think that it had a very strong bull market during the last century. And you are right, it had a very strong one, but against your currency. In reality, the value of GOLD has not increased that much. The purchasing power chart speaks by itself. Most central banks are private entities that are not controlled by the governments of the countries. From the chart, I can deduce that In a bank, you can keep the money, but not it's value. What do you think about central banks, is a fair system? Write it in the comments. If something of what I wrote here is not correct, please let me know.
TVC:GOLD
by piccard54
MACRO MONDAY 32~The SLOOS~ Is Lending Increasing or decreasing?MACRO MONDAY 32 – The SLOOS Released Monday 5th Feb 2024 (for Q4 2023) Released quarterly, the Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices (SLOOS) is a survey of up to 80 large domestic banks and 24 branches of international banks to gain insight into credit, lending standards and bank practices. The Federal Reserve issues and collates these voluntary surveys. The surveys generally include 25 questions and a number of special questions about development in banking practices. They cover practices for the previous three months, but also deal with expectations for the coming quarter and year. While some queries are quantitative, most are qualitative. The surveys have come to cover increasingly timely topics, for example, providing the Fed with insight into bank forbearance policies and trends in response to the 2020 economic crisis. Let’s have a look at the culmination of the some of the more important data from the SLOOS in chart form The Chart The blue line on the chart plots the results of the SLOOS survey – specifically, the net percentage of polled banks reporting that they’ve tightened their lending standards to commercial and industrial customers. I have combined the SLOOS Tightening Lending Standards on the chart with the Unemployment Rate. You can clearly see a pattern of the SLOOS leading the Unemployment Rate and also the broad correlation of their trends. Recessions are in grey. The SLOOS Tightening Lending Standards (blue line) ▫️ Lending standards tightened significantly prior to the onset of each of the last three recessions (See green lines and text on chart). ▫️ When lending conditions tightened by 54% or greater it coincided with the last four recessions. (Represented by the horizontal red dashed line on the chart and the red area at the top) ▫️ On two occasions the 54% level being breached would have been a pre-recession warning; prior to the 1990 recession and 2000 recession providing approx. 3 months advance warning. ▫️ When we breached the c.34% level in Jan 2008 it marked the beginning of that recession. We are currently at 33.9% (for Q3 2023) and were as high as 50% in the reading released in July (for Q2 2023). Above the 34% on the chart is the orange area, an area of increased recession risk but not guaranteed recession. ▫️ Interestingly, every recession ended close to when we exited back out below the 34% level. This makes the 34% level an incredibly useful level to watch for tomorrows release. If we break below the 34% level it would be a very good sign. We could speculate that it could be a sign of a soft landing being more probable and could suggest a soft recessionary period has already come and gone (based solely on this chart continuing on a downward trajectory under 34%). I emphasize “speculate”. U.S. Unemployment Rate (Red Line) ▫️ I have included the U.S. Unemployment Rate in red as in the last three recessions you can see that the unemployment rate took a sudden turn up, just before recession. This is a real trigger warning for recession on the chart. Whilst we have had an uptick in recent months, it has not been to the same degree as these prior warning signals. These prior stark increases were an increases of approx. 0.8% over two to three quarters. Our current increase is not even half of this (3.4% to 3.7% from Jan 2023 to present, a 0.3% increase over 1 year). If we rise up to 4.2% or higher we can start getting a little concerned. ▫️ The Unemployment Rate either based or rose above 4.3% prior to the last three recessions onset. This is another important level to watch in conjunction with the 34% and 54% levels on the SLOOS. All these levels increase or decrease the probability of recession and should infer a more or less risk reductive strategy for markets. In the above we covered the Net percentage of Banks Tightening Standards for Commercial and Industrial Loans to Large and mid-sized firms. The SLOOS provides a similar chart dataset for Tightening Standards for Small Firms, and another similar dataset for Consumer Loans and Credit Cards. I will share a chart in the comments that illustrates all three so that tomorrow we can update you with the new data released for all of them. You are now also better equipped to make your own judgement call based on the history and levels represented in the above chart, all of which is only a guide. Remember all these charts are available on TradingView and you can press play and update yourself as to where we are in terms of zones or levels breached on the charts. Thanks for coming along again PUKA
FRED:DRTSCILM
by PukaCharts
DXY Outlook (1st Qtr 2024)Last year, despite the volatility in the markets (fight against inflation, SVB collapse, conflict in Gaza....) the DXY traded in a slightly consolidative range, between the 100 and 107 price levels (compared to 2022, where the DXY rose from 95 up to almost 115). The theme of the first quarter of 2024 is likely to be about if/when the Federal Reserve would begin to cut rates, from the current level of 5.25% down to 5%. Based on the CME FedWatch Tool, the Feds are likely to keep rates on hold in January, but there is a 72.4% chance of a rate cut at the March 2024 meeting. The DXY is currently at the 101.50 price level, finding support at the 100-round number area and the longer-term 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at the 99.25 price level. A retrace to the upside can be anticipated early in the quarter. However, the upper bound of the bearish channel and the resistance level at the 104 price level could limit further moves to the upside. Look out for inflation and employment data to continue to support the Fed's view for rate cuts in March. This could lead the DXY to continue trading within the bearish channel. If the price breaks below the support level of 99.25, the DXY could trade down to the major support level of 95, and the lower bound of the bearish channel. Major Events to Watch 5th Jan: Non-Farm Employment Change 11th Jan: CPI y/y 26th Jan: Core PCE Price Index 1st Feb: Federal Funds Rate Decision and statement 2nd Feb: Non-Farm Employment Change 13th Feb: CPI y/y 29th Feb: Core PCE Price Index 8th Mar: Non-Farm Employment Change 12th Mar: CPI y/y 21st Mar: Federal Funds Rate Decision
TVC:DXYShort
by JinDao_Tai
4
XAUUSD-SHORT THESIS-Wed Jan 31st-Fed EventShort Meltdown Incoming!!! Entry positioned in London High, which turns out to be NY session Fibonacci point, also alligns with classic Fib retracement Golden zone. Stop loss above daily high. Profit target from 2020s and lower. From my fundamental part of analysis, my take is that Fed won't cut the rates and that press conference as Fed statement might be very hawkish, that concludes my target at 1996.00 *SELL LIMIT: -ENTRY: 2041.00 -STOP LOSS: 2049.00(80 pips) -TAKE PROFIT: 1996.00(450pips)
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by jg12345gj
Discussion of Levels before the FOMC January 31st DXY: (Fed Decision) Stay below 103.80 could trade down to 102.70 support. NZDUSD: Buy 0.6150 SL 15 TP 40 (DXY weakness) AUDUSD: Sell 0.6585 SL 15 TP 60 (DXY strength) USDJPY: Sell 147.10 SL 30 TP 200 (Hesitation at 146.45) GBPUSD: Buy 1.2715 SL 20 TP 60 (DXY weakness) EURUSD: Sell 1.0790 SL 15 TP 45 (2nd setup) Sell 1.0730 SL 20 TP 70 USDCHF: Consolidation, possible straddle Buy 0.8655 SL 20 TP 55 Sell 0.8600 SL 15 TP 40 USDCAD: Sell 1.3400 SL 20 TP 50 Gold: Break above 2040 trade up to 2055 (Conflict escalation & DXY weakness)
TVC:DXY
by JinDao_Tai
Gold forecast: Crazy to expect rate cut tomorrow? Gold forecast: Crazy to expect rate cut tomorrow? Mostly yes. Market consensus leans towards the U.S. central bank maintaining current interest rates following the conclusion of its two-day meeting tomorrow. However, the potential impact on the U.S. dollar and gold is likely to hinge on statements from Fed Chair Jerome Powell regarding expectations for a rate cut. While there is an anticipation of a somewhat dovish shift from Fed officials in the market, the robust January data and the positive JOLTS job report this morning present a case for the possibility of a sustained hawkish stance, The JOLTS report revealed that U.S. job openings in December surged to 9.026 million, surpassing the expected 8.750 million and marking the highest figure in three months. XAU/USD was trading in the green for a second consecutive day before the JOLTS report. Gold is currently above a mildly bearish 20 Simple Moving Average for the first time in over two weeks, with longer moving averages situated significantly below the current level. Still, gold has breached its minor downtrend line originating from the early January high raises the possibility of a bullish target towards $2055, presumably reliant on the possibility of a Fed rate cut (or not).
BLACKBULL:XAUUSD
by BlackBull_Markets
Gold's Bullish Momentum: Technicals and Fundamental DriversIn today's trading session, our attention is on XAUUSD, where we're considering a buying opportunity around the 2026 zone. Technically, gold is exhibiting an uptrend but currently undergoing a correction phase, with the price nearing the support and resistance area at 2026. Adding a fundamental layer to our analysis, we observe bullish sentiment among investors driven by several factors. Geopolitical tensions and the prospect of further interest rate cuts by central banks, particularly the Federal Reserve, are key drivers behind the bullish outlook on gold. Recent events, including heightened geopolitical risks, have contributed to a risk-off sentiment in financial markets, prompting investors to seek safe-haven assets like gold. Additionally, expectations of lower interest rates, combined with concerns about global economic growth, have boosted the appeal of non-interest-bearing assets like gold. Furthermore, structural demand from emerging market (EM) central banks and consumers remains robust, providing support to gold prices. EM central banks and consumers have demonstrated a sustained interest in acquiring gold as a hedge against currency fluctuations and geopolitical uncertainties. This structural demand, coupled with the prevailing geopolitical tensions and expectations of monetary policy easing, underpins the positive outlook for gold prices. Taking these factors into account, the bullish sentiment among investors regarding gold's price trajectory aligns with the technical analysis indicating a potential buying opportunity around the 2026 zone for XAUUSD.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by JoeChampion
1
U.S. Core PCE Comes in Lower than Expected U.S Core PCE (FEDS FAVOURITE METRIC) Rep: 2.9% ✅ Lower Than Expected ✅ Exp: 3.0% Prev: 3.2% U.S. Headline PCE Rep: 2.6% ✅ In Line with Expectations ✅ Exp: 2.6% Prev: 2.6% Historical Core PCE Norms On the chart you can see that since 1990 the typical Core PCE range is between 1 - 3% (red dotted lines on chart). We are slowly getting back down into this more historically moderate level. We have just fallen below the 3% level and down into the historically moderate zone for PCE levels. The Federal Reserve have advised that Core PCE is expected to decline to 2.2% by 2025 & finally reach its 2% target in 2026. At this rate we might reach 2% a little sooner than that. For the full breakdown of the Core and Headline PCE and to know the differences between PCE and CPI, please review the Macro Monday I previously released which explains it all (in the comments below). PUKA
ECONOMICS:USCPCEPIAC
by PukaCharts
Gold price juggles ahead of Fed’s preferred inflation gaugeDaily Digest Market Movers: Gold price remains inside the woods as the upside was capped amid uncertainty ahead of the United States core PCE price index data for December. While the downside is being supported because of geopolitical tensions and the chance of rate-cuts by the Federal Reserve this year. The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge is forecast to rise by 0.2% against the former reading of 0.1%. The annual underlying inflation data is set to slow to 3% versus 3.2% in November. The US economy expanded at a robust pace of 3.3% in the final quarter of 2023 while market participants projected a slower growth rate of 2.0%. This has uplifted the economic outlook, which could keep price pressures elevated. US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said surprisingly strong economic growth came from higher productivity and robust consumer spending without escalating inflation risks. A stubborn core PCE price index report could combine with an optimistic economic outlook to propel upside risks to price pressures. This would allow Fed policymakers to continue to maintain a hawkish interest rate stance for the first six months of 2024. After the release of the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, market participants will shift their focus towards the Fed’s first monetary policy of 2024, which will be announced next week. The Fed is widely anticipated to keep interest rates unchanged in the range of 5.25-5.50% for the fourth time in a row. Investors will keenly focus on the timing of when the Fed will start reducing interest rates. The CME Fedwatch tool is showing that the chances in favour of a 25-basis point (bp) rate cut in March are at 48%. This indicates that traders are seeing the Fed reducing interest rates from May. Till now, Fed policymakers have been considering expectations of rate-cuts from March as “premature” due to resilient US economic prospects and stubborn inflationary pressures. Fed policymakers have been warning that rate cuts at this stage would be premature, which could lead to a surge in overall demand and dampen efforts made to bring down core inflation to its current 3.9% level. The US Dollar Index (DXY) holds onto recovery inspired by upbeat US Q4 GDP data but struggles to print a fresh high near 104.00.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by dc_analytics