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EURUSD Struggles at Key Resistance Ahead of the FedThe pair has managed to stage a rebound from its 2024 lows and reacts positively to today’s preliminary data from Eurozone, which showed Q1 GDP expansion and persistence in headline inflation. As such, the common currency continues its effort to surpass the pivotal resistance confluence, provided by the EMA200 and the 38.2% Fibonacci of the March-April slump. Successful outcome would negate the downside bias and bring 1.0885 in the spotlight. However, we are cautious around the ascending prospects. The path of least resistance is down, technically and fundamentally. A rejection of the aforementioned critical region would reaffirm the bearish bias and open the door to lower lows (1.0600). The monetary policy differential is unfavorable and EZ core CPI continued to decelerate. The European Central Bank is looking to change tack and slash rates as early as June, dictated by weak growth and progress on inflation. Its US counterpart on the other hand, has adopted a conservative approach due to strong economy, resilient labor market and persistent price pressures that raise the bar for a pivot. The next leg of the move will likely be determined by Wednesday’s policy decision from Fed officials and since no move is projected, investors will be looking for any updates around their rate intentions. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 68% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (trading as “FXCM” or “FXCM EU”), previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763). Please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this video are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interests arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed via FXCM`s website: Stratos Markets Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Europe Ltd clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Trading Pty. Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC clients please see: www.fxcm.com Past Performance is not an indicator of future results.
Short
by FXCM
USD/JPY: Breaching 158.500 signals potential run to 160? USD/JPY: Breaching 158.500 signals potential run to 160? The JPY weakened below 158.200 against the dollar. It is the first time since May 1990 we have seen this exchange rate for the USD/JPY. The reason is being attributes to the Bank of Japan keeping interest rates unchanged last Friday. With the USD/JPY comfortably above both the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, a break above 158.500 might propel it towards 160.000. Market attention remains fixed on whether Japanese authorities will intervene in currency markets to stem the yen's decline. Other than this, short-term USD/JPY movements may depend on this week's US and Japanese economic data. In Japan, focus lies on April's consumer confidence, unemployment rate, retail sales, and industrial production, along with insights from the BoJ's meeting minutes. better-than-expected figures could boost demand for the Japanese yen. However, most eyes will be on the US Fed's upcoming decision this week, with expectations for maintaining record-level borrowing costs, potentially pushing the yen further down. The Fed decision will be followed by the non-farm payrolls report, expected to show a rise of 210K jobs in April, though slower than March's 303K. Better-than-expected figures here could affect investor outlooks on a September Fed rate adjustment, and giving the USD/JPY more reason to target the 160.000 level.
by BlackBull_Markets
Bitcoin, The FED, interest rates and Banks CrashingThought I would post this the day after we hear that REPUBLIC FIRST BANK has gone in to receivership in the USA. This is just 5 weeks after the FED's BTFP Banking Suppor tprogram ended. Thsi si likely to be the first of more and the question is now, how will the FED react on Wednesday, 1 st may at their next interest rate meeting. To Pivot now would be an interesting and possibly catastrophic choice and yet, to keep rates as they are, Keeps th epressure on and so we will see more Banks Falling. Why is a Pivot now a bad move ? Because, Historicaly, Markets Crash on Pivots. Will that happen in Crypto ? We have No data to look at, We have Never been in this situation before................ Keep your eyes open on Wednesday
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Orriginal
$ DXY and FED meeting next week - a push higher ?DXY $ maybe one to watch over the next couple of Weeks as it seems to be approching Strong support. Fundimentals, as ever, Will pay a huge part in this and so we wait. Today we have personnale spending and income Data BUT the real Biggie is on 1st May next week when we have the FED Interest rate decision made public. If that remains the same ....or rises......then the $ will push higher. That in turn will take moeny out of other markets......But maybe not #Bitcoin too much. We shall have to wait and see But watch this later today. DXY usualy tries to push higher on a Friday to close for the weekend on a high.
TVC:DXY
by Orriginal
Fed decision preview: Zero rate cuts and EURUSD parity in 2024? Fed decision preview: Zero rate cuts and EURUSD parity in 2024? Expectations point to the Federal Open Market Committee maintaining interest rates at their current levels in the upcoming decision slated for May 1. However, fixed income markets suggest the possibility of rate cuts surfacing in either the July or September meetings of the FOMC. Nonetheless, Thursday’s economic activity report ushered in another jolt for investors and Federal Reserve policymakers. They had been bracing for lower inflation to pave the way for substantial interest-rate cuts this summer. The core price index for personal consumption expenditures in the United States, excluding food and energy, surged by an annualized 3.7% during the first quarter of 2024. This marks an acceleration from the previous three-month period's 2% increase, surpassing the estimated 3.4%. Recent remarks by Fed Chair Jerome Powell and other policymakers have solidified the conviction that rate cuts won’t materialize in the near term. In fact, there's been discussion about the potential for further hikes if inflation fails to abate. Given the challenging scenario, where higher interest rates don't appear to be substantially denting the economy, the question arises: What if policymakers opt to maintain current rates throughout 2024 without any cuts? With the divergence in outlook from the Fed and the ECB, can we expect parity to be reached again in the EUR/USD this year?
by BlackBull_Markets
Mighty Dollar Roars Back: A Wake-Up Call for Global MarkeThe financial markets of 2024 have witnessed a surprising resurgence: the unwavering strength of the US dollar. After predictions of a decline at the year's outset, the greenback has defied expectations, surging over 4% according to the Bloomberg dollar index. This unexpected power play by the dollar serves as a stark wake-up call for investors around the globe, forcing a reassessment of global economic dynamics. Several factors are fueling the dollar's dominance: • Resilient US Economy: Contrary to forecasts of a slowdown, the US economy has displayed remarkable strength. Robust economic data, coupled with persistent inflation, has prompted the Federal Reserve to take a more hawkish stance. Rising interest rates in the US make dollar-denominated assets more attractive to investors, increasing demand for the currency. • US Exceptionalism Narrative: The perception of the US as a safe haven in a world riddled with geopolitical uncertainties is bolstering the dollar's appeal. Geopolitical tensions, exemplified by the ongoing war in Ukraine, are driving investors towards reliable and stable economies. The relative stability of the US, compared to global turmoil, strengthens the dollar's position as a go-to currency during times of crisis. • Sticky Inflation: The Federal Reserve's fight against inflation is another key driver of dollar strength. The Fed's commitment to raising interest rates, while potentially slowing economic growth, is seen as a necessary step to curb inflation. This hawkish stance stands in stark contrast to the dovish policies of central banks in other major economies, like the Bank of Japan (BOJ), which continues to maintain ultra-low interest rates. This divergence in monetary policy further strengthens the dollar's relative appeal. The Ripple Effects The resurgent dollar has significant ramifications for global markets: • Currency Devaluation: A stronger dollar puts downward pressure on other currencies. This can make imports into the US cheaper but exports from the US more expensive, potentially impacting global trade dynamics. Emerging market economies, particularly those heavily reliant on foreign capital, could face currency depreciation and capital outflows. • Equity Market Volatility: The rising dollar can create headwinds for equity markets outside the US. As the dollar strengthens, foreign investments become less attractive, potentially leading to capital repatriation and reduced liquidity in other markets. This could lead to increased volatility in global stock markets. • Commodities Market Impact: A strong dollar generally translates to lower commodity prices. This is because most commodities are priced in US dollars, so a stronger dollar makes them relatively more expensive for holders of other currencies. This could impact countries heavily reliant on commodity exports. The Road Ahead The future trajectory of the dollar remains uncertain. The path of US interest rates, the evolution of global economic conditions, and the persistence of geopolitical tensions will all be crucial factors shaping the dollar's strength. The current scenario presents both challenges and opportunities for investors. A strong dollar can create opportunities in US assets but necessitates careful portfolio diversification to mitigate currency risks. The evolving global landscape demands close monitoring and a nimble investment strategy to navigate the volatility. The resurgent dollar serves as a potent reminder of the US economy's enduring strength and its role as a global anchor currency. As the world grapples with geopolitical and economic uncertainties, the dollar's reign is likely to continue for the foreseeable future, demanding a recalibration of global investment strategies.
TVC:DXYLong
by bryandowningqln
GOLD BREAKS ASCENDING TRIANGLE OUTSometimes, you have to see the things from a different perspective, the chart of Gold against major currencies, writing this on the chart: "" TVC:GOLD/((FX_IDC:CHFUSD+FX_IDC:EURUSD+FX_IDC:GBPUSD)/3) "" you can observe that the price has successfully broken out from a long accumulation inside an ascending triangle and that it's about to break the all time high meanwhile if you look at the gold chart against dollar, there is a 4.5% remaining to reach the All time High. I have been watching gold for a while and in my opinion it can be a good investment for the coming years and taking in to account the recent actions of the FED you can see what is the store of value number one. It always was and It always will be. Just a small point, in December of 1913 the FED was created and one ounce of gold was worth 20.65$ now, today, more than 100 years later it is worth 1990$. You can see this in two ways, the gold went up a 9536.80% or the dollar went down a 98.96%. Imagine if you had keep your savings in dollars for all that time. Now, going back to the idea, as you can see in the chart, the first target of the trade is 2229$ which is the height of the triangle and I think that can be easily reached within this year. About the entry, I would recommend wait for a retest of the breakout point, but taking in to account the current situation the chances of retest are not high so to enter now can be a good option. I recommend to set a stop in 1595 because you can never be sure and the first is to preserve your capital, then grow it. Basing my opinion in the Fibonacci Levels, I think that GOLD can easily reach 4085 in the coming years as level 1.618. I hope that you found useful this idea, I will be happy to see your opinion in the comments and don't forget to give a boost if you agree.
TVC:GOLDLong
by piccard54
lets talk about halving Take your time to readCRYPTO:BTCUSD This is not a trend analysis or signal of any kind just my own speculation about what may come to happen after the halving . as we know the last cycle coincided with the fed cutting rates and the money printing going crazy like brrrrr . although we can expect at least another round of rate cuts in 2024 nothing is really guaranteed this cycle . we've been seeing consolidation in the BINANCE:BTCUSDT chart for the last couple months . now I'm not really bearish but what scares me is that last time we had the rate cuts then the halving kicked in and we gone from nearly 3k all the way to 64k before any major correction . If a sell the news event was going to occur after the halving we could expect a few weeks to a couple months of downward selling pressure on bitcoin price before major upside gains . I don't say such scenario will happen but it's better to be prepared incase of such event . what i personally do is just have 50 percent of my capital ready to invest if the markets go down as the result of a black swan event because we do have the institutional support this cycle but at the same time after about 4 years of experience in the markets i know that brokers and institutions love to liquidate the retail before major moves . So i think although the trend is bullish in the long term we might have extra volatility in the short term and it pays to be ready for any possible move . thanks for your time. use this information with due diligence.
CRYPTO:BTCUSD
by Atlas_Tradingclub
ISM Indices vs. GDP YoY% - Leading Economic IndicatorsBoth ISM Manufacturing Index and Non-Manufacturing Index vs. GDP YoY% for the US economy. ISM Manufacturing: Yellow ISM Non-Manufacturing: Blue GDP YoY%: Green/Red ISM Manufacturing currently signaling contraction with a level below 50 and the momentum seems lower. Non-Manufacturing Index is likely to follow the same path although currently signaling growth, but less than before. GDP YoY% could potentially experience a slow-down within the next 6 Months to a Year. The FED has being somewhat more Dovish on the latest speech, as they're seeing a negative outcome in keeping Interest Rates higher for much longer.
ECONOMICS:USBCOI
by Kels
Undervalued Dollar? Democrats' Influence on Rate Cut PlansUndervalued Dollar? Democrats' Influence on Powell's Rate Cut Plans Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to present his semi-annual monetary policy testimony to the House and Senate starting this Wednesday. The market will be looking for Powell to provide a more specific timeline for interest rate cuts. Currently, the market is pricing in three interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year, with the first expected in June. However, the market is likely to be disappointed, with Powell keeping tight-lipped and echoing the sentiments of other Fed officials, suggesting that the first rate cut may occur "later this year." Although the market might be disappointed by the lack of a clear timeline, it will likely take no news as good news though and have no reason to amend their forecast to any time later than June. This could be undervaluing the US dollar, as the market overlooks “higher for even longer”. When the market finally comes to terms with this, targets for a stronger USD could include those levels designated on the chart. What could break Powell's tight lips is pressure from Democrats, who could advocate for interest rate cuts to support the strength of the economy in an election year.
by BlackBull_Markets
Upcoming FED actions and Bitcoin - English and FrenchIn the next few weeks we have some MAJOR things happening in the world of the $ and it WILL have an impact on Bitcoin and the rest of the Markets. On the 12 March, the FED Support program that was introduced 12 months ago to support the American banking system, Ends. This could lead to a $300Billion recall which could in turn, cause Bank Runs. The Expectation is currently that the FED Will NOT recall these Debts yet. A Week Later, we have the FED announcing its next step about Rate Rises, which is expected to be to leave them as they are for now. Despite the Expected "easy Time", I have little doubt that the FED Will do what ever it can to destabilise the surging Crypto Market if it can do this with out damaging other Markets. End of the day, the FEDERAL RESERVE is there to protect the BANKING SYSTEM. Never forget that ************************ Au cours des prochaines semaines, des choses MAJEURES se produiront dans le monde du $ et cela aura un impact sur Bitcoin et le reste des marchés. Le 12 mars prend fin le programme de soutien de la FED, introduit il y a 12 mois pour soutenir le système bancaire américain. Cela pourrait conduire à un rappel de 300 milliards de dollars, ce qui pourrait à son tour provoquer des paniques bancaires. On s’attend actuellement à ce que la FED ne rappelle PAS encore ces dettes. Une semaine plus tard, la FED annonce sa prochaine étape en matière de hausse des taux, qui devrait les laisser tels quels pour le moment. Malgré le « moment facile » attendu, je n'ai aucun doute sur le fait que la FED fera tout ce qu'elle peut pour déstabiliser le marché en plein essor de la cryptographie si elle peut le faire sans endommager les autres marchés. En fin de compte, la RÉSERVE FÉDÉRALE est là pour protéger le SYSTÈME BANCAIRE. N'oublie jamais cela
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Orriginal
U.S Core PCE (FEDS FAVOURITE METRIC)U.S Core PCE (FEDS FAVOURITE METRIC) Rep: 2.8% ✅ Slight decrease as Expected ✅ Exp: 2.8% Prev: 2.9% U.S. Headline PCE Rep: 2.4% ✅ Notable Decrease Expected ✅ Exp: 2.4% Prev: 2.6% Both Headline & Core PCE have come in lower and as expected; ✅ Core decreased from 2.9% to 2.8% ✅ Headline PCE decreased from 2.6% to 2.4% Historical Core PCE Norms On the chart you can see that since 1990 the typical Core PCE range is between 1 - 3% (red dotted lines on chart - green area). We are slowly getting back down into this more historically moderate level. We have fallen below the 3% level and down into the historically moderate zone for PCE levels. The Federal Reserve have advised that Core PCE is expected to decline to 2.2% by 2025 & finally reach its 2% target in 2026. At this rate we might reach 2% a little sooner than that. For the full breakdown of the Core and Headline PCE and to know the differences between PCE and CPI, please review the Macro Monday I previously released which explains it all (see below link). PUKA
ECONOMICS:USCPCEPIAC
by PukaCharts
The ECB balance sheet vs the FEDThe head of the European Central Bank #ECB Madame Lagarde claims the #ECB is at a different point in time to the Federal Reserve #FED. She claims it is premature to talk about winding down the Quantitative Easing (#QE) as the Fed has indicated a schedule to roll back liquidity. The graph indicates otherwise interestingly the EUD USD liquidity indicates the Fed continues to fund the ECB balance sheet therefore QE inflation has no end during 2022.
ECONOMICS:EUCBBSShort
by edrodven
5
Economy of the last 100 years resumed Gold and Purchasing PowerThis is just a simple observation of what happened with Gold in the last 100 years. Here I show some important economic events highlighting the purchasing power with a red line. When you open a GOLD chart, you can look at the trend and think that it had a very strong bull market during the last century. And you are right, it had a very strong one, but against your currency. In reality, the value of GOLD has not increased that much. The purchasing power chart speaks by itself. Most central banks are private entities that are not controlled by the governments of the countries. From the chart, I can deduce that In a bank, you can keep the money, but not it's value. What do you think about central banks, is a fair system? Write it in the comments. If something of what I wrote here is not correct, please let me know.
TVC:GOLD
by piccard54
MACRO MONDAY 32~The SLOOS~ Is Lending Increasing or decreasing?MACRO MONDAY 32 – The SLOOS Released Monday 5th Feb 2024 (for Q4 2023) Released quarterly, the Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices (SLOOS) is a survey of up to 80 large domestic banks and 24 branches of international banks to gain insight into credit, lending standards and bank practices. The Federal Reserve issues and collates these voluntary surveys. The surveys generally include 25 questions and a number of special questions about development in banking practices. They cover practices for the previous three months, but also deal with expectations for the coming quarter and year. While some queries are quantitative, most are qualitative. The surveys have come to cover increasingly timely topics, for example, providing the Fed with insight into bank forbearance policies and trends in response to the 2020 economic crisis. Let’s have a look at the culmination of the some of the more important data from the SLOOS in chart form The Chart The blue line on the chart plots the results of the SLOOS survey – specifically, the net percentage of polled banks reporting that they’ve tightened their lending standards to commercial and industrial customers. I have combined the SLOOS Tightening Lending Standards on the chart with the Unemployment Rate. You can clearly see a pattern of the SLOOS leading the Unemployment Rate and also the broad correlation of their trends. Recessions are in grey. The SLOOS Tightening Lending Standards (blue line) ▫️ Lending standards tightened significantly prior to the onset of each of the last three recessions (See green lines and text on chart). ▫️ When lending conditions tightened by 54% or greater it coincided with the last four recessions. (Represented by the horizontal red dashed line on the chart and the red area at the top) ▫️ On two occasions the 54% level being breached would have been a pre-recession warning; prior to the 1990 recession and 2000 recession providing approx. 3 months advance warning. ▫️ When we breached the c.34% level in Jan 2008 it marked the beginning of that recession. We are currently at 33.9% (for Q3 2023) and were as high as 50% in the reading released in July (for Q2 2023). Above the 34% on the chart is the orange area, an area of increased recession risk but not guaranteed recession. ▫️ Interestingly, every recession ended close to when we exited back out below the 34% level. This makes the 34% level an incredibly useful level to watch for tomorrows release. If we break below the 34% level it would be a very good sign. We could speculate that it could be a sign of a soft landing being more probable and could suggest a soft recessionary period has already come and gone (based solely on this chart continuing on a downward trajectory under 34%). I emphasize “speculate”. U.S. Unemployment Rate (Red Line) ▫️ I have included the U.S. Unemployment Rate in red as in the last three recessions you can see that the unemployment rate took a sudden turn up, just before recession. This is a real trigger warning for recession on the chart. Whilst we have had an uptick in recent months, it has not been to the same degree as these prior warning signals. These prior stark increases were an increases of approx. 0.8% over two to three quarters. Our current increase is not even half of this (3.4% to 3.7% from Jan 2023 to present, a 0.3% increase over 1 year). If we rise up to 4.2% or higher we can start getting a little concerned. ▫️ The Unemployment Rate either based or rose above 4.3% prior to the last three recessions onset. This is another important level to watch in conjunction with the 34% and 54% levels on the SLOOS. All these levels increase or decrease the probability of recession and should infer a more or less risk reductive strategy for markets. In the above we covered the Net percentage of Banks Tightening Standards for Commercial and Industrial Loans to Large and mid-sized firms. The SLOOS provides a similar chart dataset for Tightening Standards for Small Firms, and another similar dataset for Consumer Loans and Credit Cards. I will share a chart in the comments that illustrates all three so that tomorrow we can update you with the new data released for all of them. You are now also better equipped to make your own judgement call based on the history and levels represented in the above chart, all of which is only a guide. Remember all these charts are available on TradingView and you can press play and update yourself as to where we are in terms of zones or levels breached on the charts. Thanks for coming along again PUKA
FRED:DRTSCILM
by PukaCharts
DXY Outlook (1st Qtr 2024)Last year, despite the volatility in the markets (fight against inflation, SVB collapse, conflict in Gaza....) the DXY traded in a slightly consolidative range, between the 100 and 107 price levels (compared to 2022, where the DXY rose from 95 up to almost 115). The theme of the first quarter of 2024 is likely to be about if/when the Federal Reserve would begin to cut rates, from the current level of 5.25% down to 5%. Based on the CME FedWatch Tool, the Feds are likely to keep rates on hold in January, but there is a 72.4% chance of a rate cut at the March 2024 meeting. The DXY is currently at the 101.50 price level, finding support at the 100-round number area and the longer-term 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at the 99.25 price level. A retrace to the upside can be anticipated early in the quarter. However, the upper bound of the bearish channel and the resistance level at the 104 price level could limit further moves to the upside. Look out for inflation and employment data to continue to support the Fed's view for rate cuts in March. This could lead the DXY to continue trading within the bearish channel. If the price breaks below the support level of 99.25, the DXY could trade down to the major support level of 95, and the lower bound of the bearish channel. Major Events to Watch 5th Jan: Non-Farm Employment Change 11th Jan: CPI y/y 26th Jan: Core PCE Price Index 1st Feb: Federal Funds Rate Decision and statement 2nd Feb: Non-Farm Employment Change 13th Feb: CPI y/y 29th Feb: Core PCE Price Index 8th Mar: Non-Farm Employment Change 12th Mar: CPI y/y 21st Mar: Federal Funds Rate Decision
TVC:DXYShort
by JinDao_Tai
4