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Upcoming FED actions and Bitcoin - English and FrenchIn the next few weeks we have some MAJOR things happening in the world of the $ and it WILL have an impact on Bitcoin and the rest of the Markets. On the 12 March, the FED Support program that was introduced 12 months ago to support the American banking system, Ends. This could lead to a $300Billion recall which could in turn, cause Bank Runs. The Expectation is currently that the FED Will NOT recall these Debts yet. A Week Later, we have the FED announcing its next step about Rate Rises, which is expected to be to leave them as they are for now. Despite the Expected "easy Time", I have little doubt that the FED Will do what ever it can to destabilise the surging Crypto Market if it can do this with out damaging other Markets. End of the day, the FEDERAL RESERVE is there to protect the BANKING SYSTEM. Never forget that ************************ Au cours des prochaines semaines, des choses MAJEURES se produiront dans le monde du $ et cela aura un impact sur Bitcoin et le reste des marchés. Le 12 mars prend fin le programme de soutien de la FED, introduit il y a 12 mois pour soutenir le système bancaire américain. Cela pourrait conduire à un rappel de 300 milliards de dollars, ce qui pourrait à son tour provoquer des paniques bancaires. On s’attend actuellement à ce que la FED ne rappelle PAS encore ces dettes. Une semaine plus tard, la FED annonce sa prochaine étape en matière de hausse des taux, qui devrait les laisser tels quels pour le moment. Malgré le « moment facile » attendu, je n'ai aucun doute sur le fait que la FED fera tout ce qu'elle peut pour déstabiliser le marché en plein essor de la cryptographie si elle peut le faire sans endommager les autres marchés. En fin de compte, la RÉSERVE FÉDÉRALE est là pour protéger le SYSTÈME BANCAIRE. N'oublie jamais cela
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Orriginal
U.S Core PCE (FEDS FAVOURITE METRIC)U.S Core PCE (FEDS FAVOURITE METRIC) Rep: 2.8% ✅ Slight decrease as Expected ✅ Exp: 2.8% Prev: 2.9% U.S. Headline PCE Rep: 2.4% ✅ Notable Decrease Expected ✅ Exp: 2.4% Prev: 2.6% Both Headline & Core PCE have come in lower and as expected; ✅ Core decreased from 2.9% to 2.8% ✅ Headline PCE decreased from 2.6% to 2.4% Historical Core PCE Norms On the chart you can see that since 1990 the typical Core PCE range is between 1 - 3% (red dotted lines on chart - green area). We are slowly getting back down into this more historically moderate level. We have fallen below the 3% level and down into the historically moderate zone for PCE levels. The Federal Reserve have advised that Core PCE is expected to decline to 2.2% by 2025 & finally reach its 2% target in 2026. At this rate we might reach 2% a little sooner than that. For the full breakdown of the Core and Headline PCE and to know the differences between PCE and CPI, please review the Macro Monday I previously released which explains it all (see below link). PUKA
ECONOMICS:USCPCEPIAC
by PukaCharts
The ECB balance sheet vs the FEDThe head of the European Central Bank #ECB Madame Lagarde claims the #ECB is at a different point in time to the Federal Reserve #FED. She claims it is premature to talk about winding down the Quantitative Easing (#QE) as the Fed has indicated a schedule to roll back liquidity. The graph indicates otherwise interestingly the EUD USD liquidity indicates the Fed continues to fund the ECB balance sheet therefore QE inflation has no end during 2022.
ECONOMICS:EUCBBSShort
by edrodven
5
Economy of the last 100 years resumed Gold and Purchasing PowerThis is just a simple observation of what happened with Gold in the last 100 years. Here I show some important economic events highlighting the purchasing power with a red line. When you open a GOLD chart, you can look at the trend and think that it had a very strong bull market during the last century. And you are right, it had a very strong one, but against your currency. In reality, the value of GOLD has not increased that much. The purchasing power chart speaks by itself. Most central banks are private entities that are not controlled by the governments of the countries. From the chart, I can deduce that In a bank, you can keep the money, but not it's value. What do you think about central banks, is a fair system? Write it in the comments. If something of what I wrote here is not correct, please let me know.
TVC:GOLD
by piccard54
MACRO MONDAY 32~The SLOOS~ Is Lending Increasing or decreasing?MACRO MONDAY 32 – The SLOOS Released Monday 5th Feb 2024 (for Q4 2023) Released quarterly, the Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices (SLOOS) is a survey of up to 80 large domestic banks and 24 branches of international banks to gain insight into credit, lending standards and bank practices. The Federal Reserve issues and collates these voluntary surveys. The surveys generally include 25 questions and a number of special questions about development in banking practices. They cover practices for the previous three months, but also deal with expectations for the coming quarter and year. While some queries are quantitative, most are qualitative. The surveys have come to cover increasingly timely topics, for example, providing the Fed with insight into bank forbearance policies and trends in response to the 2020 economic crisis. Let’s have a look at the culmination of the some of the more important data from the SLOOS in chart form The Chart The blue line on the chart plots the results of the SLOOS survey – specifically, the net percentage of polled banks reporting that they’ve tightened their lending standards to commercial and industrial customers. I have combined the SLOOS Tightening Lending Standards on the chart with the Unemployment Rate. You can clearly see a pattern of the SLOOS leading the Unemployment Rate and also the broad correlation of their trends. Recessions are in grey. The SLOOS Tightening Lending Standards (blue line) ▫️ Lending standards tightened significantly prior to the onset of each of the last three recessions (See green lines and text on chart). ▫️ When lending conditions tightened by 54% or greater it coincided with the last four recessions. (Represented by the horizontal red dashed line on the chart and the red area at the top) ▫️ On two occasions the 54% level being breached would have been a pre-recession warning; prior to the 1990 recession and 2000 recession providing approx. 3 months advance warning. ▫️ When we breached the c.34% level in Jan 2008 it marked the beginning of that recession. We are currently at 33.9% (for Q3 2023) and were as high as 50% in the reading released in July (for Q2 2023). Above the 34% on the chart is the orange area, an area of increased recession risk but not guaranteed recession. ▫️ Interestingly, every recession ended close to when we exited back out below the 34% level. This makes the 34% level an incredibly useful level to watch for tomorrows release. If we break below the 34% level it would be a very good sign. We could speculate that it could be a sign of a soft landing being more probable and could suggest a soft recessionary period has already come and gone (based solely on this chart continuing on a downward trajectory under 34%). I emphasize “speculate”. U.S. Unemployment Rate (Red Line) ▫️ I have included the U.S. Unemployment Rate in red as in the last three recessions you can see that the unemployment rate took a sudden turn up, just before recession. This is a real trigger warning for recession on the chart. Whilst we have had an uptick in recent months, it has not been to the same degree as these prior warning signals. These prior stark increases were an increases of approx. 0.8% over two to three quarters. Our current increase is not even half of this (3.4% to 3.7% from Jan 2023 to present, a 0.3% increase over 1 year). If we rise up to 4.2% or higher we can start getting a little concerned. ▫️ The Unemployment Rate either based or rose above 4.3% prior to the last three recessions onset. This is another important level to watch in conjunction with the 34% and 54% levels on the SLOOS. All these levels increase or decrease the probability of recession and should infer a more or less risk reductive strategy for markets. In the above we covered the Net percentage of Banks Tightening Standards for Commercial and Industrial Loans to Large and mid-sized firms. The SLOOS provides a similar chart dataset for Tightening Standards for Small Firms, and another similar dataset for Consumer Loans and Credit Cards. I will share a chart in the comments that illustrates all three so that tomorrow we can update you with the new data released for all of them. You are now also better equipped to make your own judgement call based on the history and levels represented in the above chart, all of which is only a guide. Remember all these charts are available on TradingView and you can press play and update yourself as to where we are in terms of zones or levels breached on the charts. Thanks for coming along again PUKA
FRED:DRTSCILM
by PukaCharts
DXY Outlook (1st Qtr 2024)Last year, despite the volatility in the markets (fight against inflation, SVB collapse, conflict in Gaza....) the DXY traded in a slightly consolidative range, between the 100 and 107 price levels (compared to 2022, where the DXY rose from 95 up to almost 115). The theme of the first quarter of 2024 is likely to be about if/when the Federal Reserve would begin to cut rates, from the current level of 5.25% down to 5%. Based on the CME FedWatch Tool, the Feds are likely to keep rates on hold in January, but there is a 72.4% chance of a rate cut at the March 2024 meeting. The DXY is currently at the 101.50 price level, finding support at the 100-round number area and the longer-term 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at the 99.25 price level. A retrace to the upside can be anticipated early in the quarter. However, the upper bound of the bearish channel and the resistance level at the 104 price level could limit further moves to the upside. Look out for inflation and employment data to continue to support the Fed's view for rate cuts in March. This could lead the DXY to continue trading within the bearish channel. If the price breaks below the support level of 99.25, the DXY could trade down to the major support level of 95, and the lower bound of the bearish channel. Major Events to Watch 5th Jan: Non-Farm Employment Change 11th Jan: CPI y/y 26th Jan: Core PCE Price Index 1st Feb: Federal Funds Rate Decision and statement 2nd Feb: Non-Farm Employment Change 13th Feb: CPI y/y 29th Feb: Core PCE Price Index 8th Mar: Non-Farm Employment Change 12th Mar: CPI y/y 21st Mar: Federal Funds Rate Decision
TVC:DXYShort
by JinDao_Tai
4
XAUUSD-SHORT THESIS-Wed Jan 31st-Fed EventShort Meltdown Incoming!!! Entry positioned in London High, which turns out to be NY session Fibonacci point, also alligns with classic Fib retracement Golden zone. Stop loss above daily high. Profit target from 2020s and lower. From my fundamental part of analysis, my take is that Fed won't cut the rates and that press conference as Fed statement might be very hawkish, that concludes my target at 1996.00 *SELL LIMIT: -ENTRY: 2041.00 -STOP LOSS: 2049.00(80 pips) -TAKE PROFIT: 1996.00(450pips)
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by jg12345gj
Discussion of Levels before the FOMC January 31st DXY: (Fed Decision) Stay below 103.80 could trade down to 102.70 support. NZDUSD: Buy 0.6150 SL 15 TP 40 (DXY weakness) AUDUSD: Sell 0.6585 SL 15 TP 60 (DXY strength) USDJPY: Sell 147.10 SL 30 TP 200 (Hesitation at 146.45) GBPUSD: Buy 1.2715 SL 20 TP 60 (DXY weakness) EURUSD: Sell 1.0790 SL 15 TP 45 (2nd setup) Sell 1.0730 SL 20 TP 70 USDCHF: Consolidation, possible straddle Buy 0.8655 SL 20 TP 55 Sell 0.8600 SL 15 TP 40 USDCAD: Sell 1.3400 SL 20 TP 50 Gold: Break above 2040 trade up to 2055 (Conflict escalation & DXY weakness)
TVC:DXY
by JinDao_Tai
Gold forecast: Crazy to expect rate cut tomorrow? Gold forecast: Crazy to expect rate cut tomorrow? Mostly yes. Market consensus leans towards the U.S. central bank maintaining current interest rates following the conclusion of its two-day meeting tomorrow. However, the potential impact on the U.S. dollar and gold is likely to hinge on statements from Fed Chair Jerome Powell regarding expectations for a rate cut. While there is an anticipation of a somewhat dovish shift from Fed officials in the market, the robust January data and the positive JOLTS job report this morning present a case for the possibility of a sustained hawkish stance, The JOLTS report revealed that U.S. job openings in December surged to 9.026 million, surpassing the expected 8.750 million and marking the highest figure in three months. XAU/USD was trading in the green for a second consecutive day before the JOLTS report. Gold is currently above a mildly bearish 20 Simple Moving Average for the first time in over two weeks, with longer moving averages situated significantly below the current level. Still, gold has breached its minor downtrend line originating from the early January high raises the possibility of a bullish target towards $2055, presumably reliant on the possibility of a Fed rate cut (or not).
BLACKBULL:XAUUSD
by BlackBull_Markets
Gold's Bullish Momentum: Technicals and Fundamental DriversIn today's trading session, our attention is on XAUUSD, where we're considering a buying opportunity around the 2026 zone. Technically, gold is exhibiting an uptrend but currently undergoing a correction phase, with the price nearing the support and resistance area at 2026. Adding a fundamental layer to our analysis, we observe bullish sentiment among investors driven by several factors. Geopolitical tensions and the prospect of further interest rate cuts by central banks, particularly the Federal Reserve, are key drivers behind the bullish outlook on gold. Recent events, including heightened geopolitical risks, have contributed to a risk-off sentiment in financial markets, prompting investors to seek safe-haven assets like gold. Additionally, expectations of lower interest rates, combined with concerns about global economic growth, have boosted the appeal of non-interest-bearing assets like gold. Furthermore, structural demand from emerging market (EM) central banks and consumers remains robust, providing support to gold prices. EM central banks and consumers have demonstrated a sustained interest in acquiring gold as a hedge against currency fluctuations and geopolitical uncertainties. This structural demand, coupled with the prevailing geopolitical tensions and expectations of monetary policy easing, underpins the positive outlook for gold prices. Taking these factors into account, the bullish sentiment among investors regarding gold's price trajectory aligns with the technical analysis indicating a potential buying opportunity around the 2026 zone for XAUUSD.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by JoeChampion
1
U.S. Core PCE Comes in Lower than Expected U.S Core PCE (FEDS FAVOURITE METRIC) Rep: 2.9% ✅ Lower Than Expected ✅ Exp: 3.0% Prev: 3.2% U.S. Headline PCE Rep: 2.6% ✅ In Line with Expectations ✅ Exp: 2.6% Prev: 2.6% Historical Core PCE Norms On the chart you can see that since 1990 the typical Core PCE range is between 1 - 3% (red dotted lines on chart). We are slowly getting back down into this more historically moderate level. We have just fallen below the 3% level and down into the historically moderate zone for PCE levels. The Federal Reserve have advised that Core PCE is expected to decline to 2.2% by 2025 & finally reach its 2% target in 2026. At this rate we might reach 2% a little sooner than that. For the full breakdown of the Core and Headline PCE and to know the differences between PCE and CPI, please review the Macro Monday I previously released which explains it all (in the comments below). PUKA
ECONOMICS:USCPCEPIAC
by PukaCharts
Gold price juggles ahead of Fed’s preferred inflation gaugeDaily Digest Market Movers: Gold price remains inside the woods as the upside was capped amid uncertainty ahead of the United States core PCE price index data for December. While the downside is being supported because of geopolitical tensions and the chance of rate-cuts by the Federal Reserve this year. The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge is forecast to rise by 0.2% against the former reading of 0.1%. The annual underlying inflation data is set to slow to 3% versus 3.2% in November. The US economy expanded at a robust pace of 3.3% in the final quarter of 2023 while market participants projected a slower growth rate of 2.0%. This has uplifted the economic outlook, which could keep price pressures elevated. US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said surprisingly strong economic growth came from higher productivity and robust consumer spending without escalating inflation risks. A stubborn core PCE price index report could combine with an optimistic economic outlook to propel upside risks to price pressures. This would allow Fed policymakers to continue to maintain a hawkish interest rate stance for the first six months of 2024. After the release of the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, market participants will shift their focus towards the Fed’s first monetary policy of 2024, which will be announced next week. The Fed is widely anticipated to keep interest rates unchanged in the range of 5.25-5.50% for the fourth time in a row. Investors will keenly focus on the timing of when the Fed will start reducing interest rates. The CME Fedwatch tool is showing that the chances in favour of a 25-basis point (bp) rate cut in March are at 48%. This indicates that traders are seeing the Fed reducing interest rates from May. Till now, Fed policymakers have been considering expectations of rate-cuts from March as “premature” due to resilient US economic prospects and stubborn inflationary pressures. Fed policymakers have been warning that rate cuts at this stage would be premature, which could lead to a surge in overall demand and dampen efforts made to bring down core inflation to its current 3.9% level. The US Dollar Index (DXY) holds onto recovery inspired by upbeat US Q4 GDP data but struggles to print a fresh high near 104.00.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by dc_analytics
US 10Y : "FED vs MARKETS" (...who will win?)Hello Traders! The FED's monetary policy is not convincing the markets, but Powell seems very determined to meet his inflation targets. In near term, market seems to want to counter this hawkish monetary policy, but that could change going forward. In short term, yields remain at high levels and I don't exclude that this rally could continue for the last bullish impulse with wave 5 formation. Does this bullish pattern meet economic fundamentals over the medium term? ...What is your opinion? -------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------------------------- ...trade with care! 👍 If you think that my analysis is useful, please... "Like, Share and Comment" ...thank you! 💖 Cheers!
TVC:US10YLong
by TheAnonymousBanker
23
us10y and the secondary wave of inflation.before you read any further, read my post from april: --- it has been awhile since i've given a public update on the us10y and my general theory about where i believe these rates are headed. back in april of 2023, i gave an upside target of 5.9% for the us10y. as of today, i'm raising the range for that upside target into the window between 6-9%, going into the end of 2024. i'm aware that jpow has mentioned in the last few fed meetings that he has no intention of raising the rates any further, but i'm seeing a significant development on many of the charts this week which tells me otherwise. so i'm calling him out on his bluff. --- us10y w5 algo = 6-9%
TVC:US10Y
by notoriousbids
Controlled Sideways Trends Ahead of EarningsThe Giant Banks and Credit Card companies benefit the most from the Federal Reserve Board's overnight interest rate hikes. As the FRB increases its lending rate, it allows big banks and credit companies to increase their interest rates to consumers, small businesses, etc. That usually means higher revenues. NYSE:V is in a sideways trend that is not as consistent as would be ideal ahead of its earnings report in about 3 weeks. However, HFTs are aware of the tendency for credit card companies to prosper during high interest-rate markets. Study the candlestick patterns: Note the quick reversal back down after a higher price level was reached. Note the rebound the same day when price dropped out of the lows of this sideways trend. There is control in this pattern which is typical of Professional trading activity.
NYSE:V
by MarthaStokesCMT-TechniTrader
Fed Policy Trajectory and Interest Rate OutlookCBOT: Micro 2-Year Yield ( CBOT_MINI:2YY1! ), Micro 10-Year Yield ( CBOT_MINI:10Y1! ) and Micro 30-Year Yield ( CBOT_MINI:30Y1! ) The latest US jobs report showed that employers added 216,000 jobs for December while the unemployment rate held at 3.7%, reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). That compared with respective market estimates of 170,000 and 3.8%. On Thursday, the BLS will release December’s CPI data. The prevailing market expectation is 0.3% monthly increase for headline CPI, up from 0.1% in November. The Federal Reserve sets monetary policy to support price stability and full employment. New data shows that the US economy is very resilient, and maybe slightly overheated with the upbeat job market. After hiking interest rates 11 times and pausing for 2 times, the Fed now has a dilemma. “To cut, or Not to cut”, this is a trillion-dollar question. In this 3rd installment of new year outlook for major asset classes, I will discuss what opportunities may lie ahead for bonds and interest rate derivatives. FYI: The first writing was a year-end review for metal commodities – Gold, Copper, and Aluminum. If you haven’t read it yet, you may follow the link here: The second writing was New Year outlook for US equities – the benchmark market indexes Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100. 2023: what’s the dominating market narrative? Last year, the Fed raised interest rates four times for a total of 100 bps. This was a slower pace comparing to the year before, where we saw seven rates hikes and 400 bps in total. To the surprise of most analysts, businesses continue to expand and hire new workers under tightened credit. Inflation could creep up with higher wages and a strong job market. US stock market rose for most of the year, shaking off bad news along the way. Despite interest rates are 5% higher than two yeas ago, major market indexes reached all-time-high records last December. The S&P 500 gained 23.9% for the year, and the Nasdaq Composite more than doubled that at 53.9%. 2024 Outlook for US Interest Rates Most investors agree that the Fed will cut rates in 2024. But the expectations for the timing and scope vary significantly. According to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, the first rate-cut could occur at the March 20th Fed meeting, with a 69.2% probability. For June 12th, the odds of two or more rate cuts increase to 85.9%. By December 18th, investors expect the Fed Funds rate to fall between 1% to 2% lower than the current 5.25-5.50% range, with a 97.9% odds (Data as of January 7th). (Link: www.cmegroup.com) Treasury prices and yields move in opposite directions. Current bond prices reflect the market expectations of 5-8 rate cuts in 2024. Lower yields, higher prices. The January 2nd CFTC Commitments of Traders report (COT) shows that “Leveraged Funds” hold the following open positions on CBOT interest rate futures: • Fed Funds: 224,772 longs and 489,204 shorts • 2Y Treasury: 775,882 longs and 2,266,563 shorts • 5Y Treasury: 844,600 longs and 2,821,682 shorts • 10Y Treasury: 285,598 longs and 775,882 shorts • 30Y Treasury: 79,124 longs and 497,636 shorts The overwhelmingly Net short positions indicate that the “Smart Money” considers the rate cuts being oversold. Why do they want to short Treasury futures? If the Fed keeps the interest rates higher for longer, or implements fewer rate cuts, Treasury yields would be higher than the current price indicated. Higher yields, lower prices. Shorting Treasury futures expresses the viewpoint that Treasury bond prices would fall. In my opinion, the bond market tends to tell a better story, compared to the stock market. The institutional nature of most participants allows the bond market to be less prone to irrational hypes and price bubbles. Trading with CBOT Micro Yield Futures Micro Treasury Yield Futures are low-cost instruments to participate in the bond market. Micro yields are quoted by treasury yield directly. Higher yields, higher futures prices. This would ease the burden from working the complicated price and yield conversion. Last Friday, the February contract of Micro 2Y Yield futures (2YYG4) were settled at 4.186%. Each contract has a notional value of 1,000 index points, or $4,186 at current price. To acquire 1 contract, a trader is required to deposit an initial margin of $340. The February Micro 10Y Yield (10YG4) was settled at 4.008%. Notional value is 1,000 index points or $4,008. Initial margin is $320. The February Micro 30Y Yield (30YG4) was settled at 4.221%. N notional value is 1,000 index points or $4,221. Initial margin is $290. My reasoning: We just had a hotter than expected jobs report for December. If CPI data shows inflation rebound this week, the whole Fed cut narrative could be derailed. The January 30th Fed meeting could have a surprised rate decision, or a more hawkish Fed statement. To replicate the short bond futures strategy used by Leveraged Funds, investors could long the micro yield futures to express the same view of higher yields. Initial margins for 10Y Micro Yield are $320, compared to $2,125 for 10Y treasury notes futures (ZN). Hypothetically, if the yield goes up by 25 bps, a long Micro Yield futures position would gain $250 (= 0.25 x 1000). This would be the same for 2Y, 5Y, 10Y and 30Y micro yield futures, as they all have a 1,000-point multiplier. On the other hand, if investors continue to ignore the Fed, as they have often been in the past two years, short futures will lose money. Happy Trading. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
CBOT_MINI:10Y1!Long
by JimHuangChicago
$US100 Another Bulls rally ends the sell off? This Friday we met the 0.5 Fib retracement level from the last breakout. Wall street snapped on its 9 week winning streak. Mixed with both fear and hope to number of expected rate cuts in the current year of 2024, recent commodities price had shown re-incarnation followed by increasing tension in regions including Mid-east, Korea, and Ukraina. Major AI stocks that carried the market throughout 2023 had cooled off a bit during the first week of Jan. But, is this really the end? All eyes are on the US inflation data for further cues on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy outloook. Forecasts suggest consumer prices likely edged up by 0.2%. We could assume the service sector laid off number of their employees to maintain their high-productivity rate continue from last year. With this expectation, 6 rate cuts may seem naive option to blindly follow. Although, I expect market to move up for the first three days just because of the false hope of dovish fed speech planned for this Thursday.
CAPITALCOM:US100Long
by Kim_CLSPX