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Chinese white paper, India in cross-hairs & Bank of Australia China releases white paper, India in the crosshairs, Bank of Australia decision China has maintained a paused after the US showed trade aggression, apparently, hoping to reach an agreement. Apparently, hopes were not justified. As a result, the so-called “White Paper” was born. The document, which sets out the position of China in order to negotiations with the United States on trade and economic issues. The main message is the following: China does not want a trade war with the United States, but will not avoid it if it is needed. Also, China quite clearly set forth its terms for a deal with the United States: the USA cancelling all duties on goods imported from China. In addition, China is gradually starting to counterattack. For instance, the investigation began against FedEx Corp. the other day. Huawei accused FedEx of sending two parcels with important commercial documents to the United States. According to the results of the investigations, FedEx Corp. may fall into the list of unreliable companies. Meanwhile, Trump is planning to open another front of the trade war - the Indian one. From June 5, the States may deprive India of the status of a country with a developing economy, which will exclude the possibility of duty-free export to the United States of more than 2,000 Indian goods. In general, everything is bad. Morgan Stanley analysts have warned about this that further growth in trade tensions may lead to negative US economic growth as early as Q3 2019. Therefore, our recommendations are: buying safe-haven assets (gold and Japanese yen) and selling the dollar. From the events of today, it is worth noting the Reserve Bank of Australia meeting, at which the Central Bank lowered the rate by 0.25%. This is definitely a bearish signal for the Australian dollar. Given the intensification of the trade war, while AUDUSD is below 0.70, we recommend looking for points for selling of AUDUSD on the intraday basis and the medium-term directions. Our positions for today: we are continuing to look for points for buying of the euro and the pound against the US dollar, sales of oil and the Russian ruble, as well as buying of gold and the Japanese yen. In addition, we will buy the Canadian dollar against the US dollar.
Short
by Trade24Fx
Watch how earnings are receivedWith earnings season kicking off this week you should be watching to see how the market reacts to the reports. The S&P 500 has been trading range-bound for the last couple days as it continues to retest the 2600 resistance. I expect that 2600 will continue to hold lots of sellers and a breakout is less likely than a breakdown. With Apple, Samsung, FedEx and the Airlines all coming out with negative revenue guidance in the last couple weeks I expect to see more bearish news in the coming earnings reports. Some will beat, as always, but its not IF they beat that's important. Whats important is how participants respond to said beats/misses. If you maintain a bearish view on equities like me, 2600 looks like the spot to short. What would be the most surprising is if markets just move sideways for the next month..
SP:SPXShort
by skyman9025
Potential Short in FDX Still trying to find my way through TA and trend following, I chose to scrutinize a company that I picked to be in my portfolio at my internship. Back in October, I looked at FDX for a long position to fill out a portfolio of blue chip dividend paying stocks for a model client portfolio. As luck would have it, the stock then rose from $170 to $200. I was happy with the result of the trend, however, as it approached $200, I felt uncomfortable keeping it in the portfolio. I thought it was overreached. This is where I fight the deep value investing principles of "buy and hold" with the trend following rules of riding profits and taking profits when the trend has run its course. I am still trying to find a middle ground, I am getting closer. Looking at the daily charts, FDX is hanging on to support at the 186.39 level. As of yesterday it crossed its 50 MA in a bearish manner, but I am looking for a confirmation and continuation of the bearish sentiment, and I like the probabilities. Fundamentally, I wanted to get rid of FDX due to increased debt accumulation, decreased cash, and negative free cash flows. With a PE Ratio of 26, its more expensive than 73% of its competitors. Its trading 3.26 times book value, putting it more expensive than almost 90% of its competitors. Cash to debt ratio has decreased each year over the last four years, going from 1.64 in 2013, to 0.26 in May 2016. Enterprise Value for FDX has increased over the last four years from 28,572 to 54,136 in 2016, that's a high price tag for 26 times earnings. For these reasons, I give more weight to the bearish probability outcome than I do the bullish one. Could the fact that I've found more shorting opportunities in larger cap "blue chip" stocks mean something for the overall market? I'm not sure. Would love some feedback. If FDX breaks current support, look to take profits around the 200 MA. Not the greatest Risk Reward Ratio: 1.49, but nevertheless, interesting to see what happens.
NYSE:FDXShort
by BrandonBeylo