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Fedfundsrate

FED Pivot?This chart suggest a FED pivot arriving much sooner than some may suspect. Compared to 2016 - 2019, the fast & big drop that usually follows a euphoric peak, came much quicker for this year. Given how much money printing went on during the pandemic, it's worth considering that this might be simply the first and second Elliott Waves for commodities, but there will be big corrections along the way, and since inflation is the rate of rising prices, not the price change itself, it would not be surprising for the FED to declare victory sooner than later. As for the fact that recessions often coincided with rates dropping, today is not comparable because the FED only started raising rates recently. It is arguable that the FED actually raised rates roughly around the right time, not "too late" as some would argue.
AMEX:DBCShort
by Indotermes
Fed Funds RateThe chart above shows the Rate of Change (over a rolling 5-period) in the Fed Funds Rate. The parabolic Rate of Change is unprecedented, yet the Federal Reserve is just getting underway with quantitative tightening as it pledges to do whatever it takes to squash high inflation. It's hard to imagine the Fed can pull off a soft landing. Ironically, this looks like a chart of the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere over the past 800,000 years. We don't see any climate scientists saying not to worry because we can engineer a soft landing.
FRED:FEDFUNDS
by SpyMasterTrades
5
A Look at 30y US Bonds, Fed Fund Rate and InflationTreasuries are an intersting play right now. Depending on your home currencies it still might be a good moment to consider stocking up on them in your portfolio. Couple of notes looking at the chart. FOMC participants’ assessments of appropriate monetary policy: Midpoint of target range or target level for the federal funds rate was shown to be around 4% (per June 15 '22 Summary of Economic Projections). The bond market had been signaling the need for FED fund rate hikes for some month already. Looking at it from a EUR buying perspective you can currently get 30Y treasuries at around 3.3% (2.75 - 3% nominal plus slightly stronger EUR at the time of writing yield with an ~5% lower price still. Forecasting a continued weak EUR and a top of the fund rate at around 4% these treasuries ought to be bound to rise latest in 2024. Newly issued bonds ought to be reaching 4% soon. If so those will be attractive too. It should be noted that there is no guarantee that the FED (nor the ECB) will be able to contain inflation or the starting recession. The EU is likely to be hit harder for both. That said the FEB may continue and we may end of up with much higher FED fund rate of above 4% (5%, 6%, .....). This scenario seems unlikely as such high interest rates would break the financial markets and econimies. It is to be noted that the FED's fund rate it approaching to be break a downward trend since 1984. On the chart the trend from 1988 has already been broken. This chart does give some indications of the dependencies of these three key figures. But one can easily spot that it is not a clear when X goes up then Y does too. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- !! Donations via TradingView coins also help me a great deal at posting more free trading content and signals here !!
TVC:US30YLong
by CarpeMomentum
Stock Market during Mid-Term Election and Inflation AnalysisThis is a historic timeline showing the following: Visuals: 1. Mid-term election years (Green Vertical Lines) 2. Peak Inflation (Yellow Vertical Lines) 3. Recession (Grey box) Charts: 1. Inflation CPI 2. FedFundsRate 3. Unemployment Rate You can note that there were two similar instances where inflation was getting higher during mid-term elections (1974 and 1980). In an inflationary environment, most likely the S&P bottoms when the inflation (CPI) has peaked. However, in 1980, the S&P went higher after mid-term elections despite inflation rising and having not peaked. So the S&P can bottom anywhere from June to October ( possibly at $3200- Fib lower level ), then rally after mid-term elections. If post-mid-term election, the unemployment rate starts going up, it can lead to a recession in the upcoming years. Feedback welcome! References: 1. List of recessions: en.wikipedia.org 2. Mid-term elections: en.wikipedia.org 3. Stock Market post Mid-Term elections: www.usbank.com
SP:SPXLong
by naveen31491
The Fed cannot raise the FEDFUNDS rate enoughA higher FEDFUNDS rate (currently around 0%) causes higher rates on treasury yields. Here is our "effective rate" (ER) we pay on the national debt. Currently around 1.9% and 22% of tax receipts go to paying this interest. If ER goes above around 3%, interest payments are around 26% of US federal revenue. If ER goes above around 5%, interest payments are around 43% of US federal revenue. Inflation is at 7.5%, it is impossible to bring the FEDFUNDS to 7.5% (which would amount to 63% revenue). Good luck, FED.
FRED:A091RC1Q027SBEA
by rrmhearts
4
Fed Fund Rate Vs US 10Y Vs GoldHere is an interesting comparison of the 3 charts. If the history of these charts has taught us anything, there is going to be a rise in rates on a real rate basis more so than actual rates. What is more interesting is how this real rate rise will influence gold prices. Now gold isn't bitcoin, they are the exact opposite things. One is front-loaded with energy and the other requires perpetual energy in addition to one having mass vs one having no mass. The risk-off appetite will be a big player here. I can see rebalancing to add gold to your account of 5-10% and reducing bonds to offset this is smarter now. Adding the 1-2% bitcoin position will make sense as the risk-off bottoming occurs. Gold miners will be smart soon, but not yet. Pick your miners now, Barrick, Newmont, Agnico Eagle, Wheaton Precious, FrancoNevada, Sandstorm, etc, and hit the bid when they tank along with equities. (This is a time to add additional bitcoin as well)
FRED:FEDFUNDSLong
by rwoods187
Will Rising Interest Rates Crash The Market?Despite previous data showing the contrary, many believe that rising fed interest rates will be a catalyst for a down turn. In the chart above, I compare the federal fund rates (blue) to SPY (orange). As you can see in the past, a rising interest rate was NOT a catalyst for a crash. Of course this time could be different, but there is no evidence currently showing that it should be different. If anything, a falling rate appears to be catalyst and usually coincides with a down turn in the economy. I'm not saying that the market will continue to go up from here, all I'm saying is that if it continues to go down, it will be hard to blame the rates as the reason.
FRED:FEDFUNDS
by ttrending
6