Dollar Bearish Potential to $80Yesterday, we got a monthly confirmation candle for the 80-month MA breakdown.
On average the first wave lower is about -17.4% on previous breakdowns
The last time the dollar bull market ended, gold soared +500%
Fedinflation
US Stock Market Making 2nd Attempt at Parabolic Blow-Off TopI believe we will get either a blow-off top in the S&P or a fundamental event that kills the expansion, sending price below the magenta rising support line.
If the Fed is too slow to expand the balance sheet, then stocks can correct significantly until the Fed eases adequately.
If Trump wins and the Fed expands their balance sheet in 2020 at a fast enough pace, then spx will enter a blow-off top mania.
If Bernie or Warren win, a significant correction will take place but SPX may bounce once rates hit zero or negative.
If the Fed is slow to move (quite likely) then SPX will swing really violently and could get scary for some investors and traders
In my view, the SPX is only worth trading, it is not worth investing in. Now is the time to be getting out of US stocks and US dollars and into emerging markets and commodities.
Sometimes being a better investor means passing up immediate returns via central bank fueled irrational exuberance and waiting for an even better opportunity later once the music has stopped and everyone has been exposed. Impossible to predict the top, so better off not fully participating.
Silver Junior Miner Value Hunting - SPA / SPAZFSpanish mountain has very little debt and is highly leveraged to the price of silver.
Very little downside here, tons of mid & long-term upside potential. Intrinsically undervalued company & assets. They're sitting on a literal mountain of silver trading well below their 2016 peak.
Conservatively I see SPA / SPAZF increasing 150% in 2020. All this requires is SPA getting back to its 2016 high when silver was at $19.
If we get $21 or $25 silver, which I believe is highly likely in 2020, then a 1.5 bagger in Spanish Mountain is pretty much guaranteed.
It could fall from 9 cents to 6 or 5.5 cents, which is a 30-40% loss, and it could easily rise 150%. That's an extremely favorable risk-reward.
If silver were to rise to $30, SPA could rise 400%. 50$ silver would give us close to 1000% gain in SPA.
And eventually, when we get 3 digit silver. Whether that's $100 silver or $500 silver. Juniors such as Spanish Mountain could become 20-100x baggers.
Think long-term ;)
Understand Gold & Silver with the GoldSilver RatioGold & Silver investors, you need to keep an eye on the gold to silver ratio. The ratio helps us in deciding how to allocate our portfolio with gold and silver.
The ratio can also help us to identify trend changes and understand what is happening in the metals market. During a metals bull-market the ratio moves decisively lower.
On the chart you can see that metals bottomed out in January 2016 when the goldsilver ratio peaked out at decade+ Long resistance. It then surged lower from 83 to 63. Thats when Gold moved from $1045 to $1375 and silver moved from $13 to $21.
You can also see that the ratio surged past key resistance and peaked out at 93. This move higher was initially driven by lower metals prices due to a hawkish fed. When the Fed did a 180 and began to cut rates, gold surged higher from 1180 to 1350 and correcting back to 1285. During this time silver severely lagged gold causing the GS ratio to peak at 93. Then gold brokeout and surged past $1400 and $1500 and silver tagged along hitting $19. This is when the GS ratio surged lower from 93 to 80.
We’re currently undergoing a healthy correction in gold & silver. The GS ratio may inch higher.
What we do not want to see is 88 recaptured and 89 recaptured. Could mean the GS ratio continues to breakout - a bearish scenario for silver & gold.
What I think is more likely is gold surging to $1700 and $1800 after this correction, with a silver that potentially hits $25. We want to see the GS ratio moving lower for this scenario.
