CBOT: Micro 10-Year Yield Futures ( CBOT_MINI:10Y1! ) Maritime transport is the backbone of international trade and the global economy. Over 80% of the global trade volume in goods is carried by sea, according to the UN. Therefore, whenever a major trade route is blocked, shipping time would be lengthened, which pushes up freight cost, and ultimately, the prices...
CME: Micro Russell 2000 ( CME_MINI:M2K1! ) Global financial market orbits around Federal Reserve’s interest rate decisions. By concept, hiking interest rates means monetary tightening while cutting them signals easing. In reality, market perception to the Fed actions evolves over time, sometimes blurring the difference between “good news” and “bad news”. • On May...
Zoom in and you will see that Regional Banks have closed several times now below this critical trend line. If the Fed fails to save them, deflationary recession/depression it is. I am banking on a Fed save. The Fed always protects it's own. Therefore, blow-off top incoming. Followed by hyper-inflationary recession/depression next year. Should be a show. Stew
Previous cycle has been overlaid onto the most recent chart on daily timeframe. If we're entering a extended cycle we could see a further and continued break targeting ATH and above. Second week December around 14th Target $3- $4 for XRP ( 10-15x from lows 0.29c) Fundamentals- SEC ruling news due around this period. This trade idea is a bit of fun so don't...
Short the rallies! Every rally is nothing but liquidity grab. You gotta be nuts to go long here, because: FOMC > more rate hikes 'may be needed' = 'are coming' Banking crisis. Worse than they let on. Yield curve inverted. Always preceeds major selloff. Recession is coming. For all the above. We in 70's economy, stupid! The Big Dump w/capitulation always comes...
Bitcoin in the last week put in a massive move! More weighted towards the $ pumped into saving the failing banks.... Will the FED Pivot and stop Rate Hikes? This is gonna be the big QUESTION of the week come this Wed, be prepared for the decision... <--- This close today above the 200 SMA can be the catalyst to move BTC higher and head towards $48K - $50K......
It’s been a while since we looked at the Russell 2000. For the uninitiated, the Russell 2000 index is a small-cap stock market index that is made up of the smallest 2000 stocks in the Russell 3000 Index. The small-cap nature means a few things, volatility tends to be higher for one. And capturing this downside volatility using the Russell 2000 as compared with...
We hope everyone had a great start to the year! As we think about the year ahead and some of the major themes that might play out, the EU vs US inflation story is among those catching our eyes now in particular. “Inflation” & “Rate Hikes” were the main talking points for the US Economy in 2022 as the US Federal Reserve (Fed) reacted and adjusted to stubborn...
✅2022 was a difficult year but it has almost ended, so it is natural for us to ask what has 2023 in stock for us! The answer lays in the structure that we both love and hate and it's the FED. Yes, the markets are now governed not by fundamentals and value but by the decision of a bunch of people in suits at the FED. However, we are traders and our job is not to...
Investing in the S&P 500 index is not always the best way to profit from an anticipated Federal Reserve pivot towards lower interest rates. While U.S. equities may rally when the Fed reduces the pace of its rate hikes, international equities are likely to be an even better performer for dollar-based investors. This is because the U.S. dollar's strength against...
FED PIVOT conclusion to take ENTRY: FED PIVOT 2022 looks similar to 1973: PIVOT MONTH=if occur in DECEMBER. POSSIBILITY= <30% rise(BULL TRAP) (17.44% already happened) till JANUARY followed by around 40% CRASH. FED PIVOT 2007: PIVOT MONTH=AUGUST. 14.99% rise till october followed by 57.69% CRASH. FED PIVOT 2000: PIVOT MONTH=DECEMBER. 10.31% rise(BULL TRAP)...
Traders, My apologies for being exempt with weekly market updates for the last several weeks. We have a lot to cover so this video will be a longer one. We'll talk Dollar, VIX, S&P500, Stocks, U.S. Housing Markets, Freight Container collapse, Crypto, and more. I'll see you all in the next video. Stew
CME: SOFR Futures ( CME:SR31! ), E-Micro S&P 500 ( CME_MINI:MES1! ) While football fans are fervently following the 2022 World Cup, we analogize the Federal Reserve’s year-long battle with surging inflation to a football match. In this game, the Core CPI had an early advantage over the Fed Funds Rate, at 6.00% vs. 0.25% in January. The Fed mounted decisive...
With all the chatter on the Fed Pivot, we think it’s worth exploring, what happens after a Fed Pivot or Fed Pause. Let’s break down the discussion into two camps, a Fed Pause, defined as a pause in policy rate hikes, and a Fed Pivot, loosely defined as reversal of policy rates aka rate cuts. To keep things in context, we will look at the effect of the Fed’s...
2 yr yield usually tops out 1.5 months before FED pivots. Right now shortterm bonds (inverse of yields) are showing bullish divergence. Historically, this may predict that the FED may halt rate hikes or become less aggressive sometime this coming November. This will be very bullish for bonds & growth stocks. Note that as of today, the 10-yr yield is still...
Gold has been on a downfall since it broke the 2018 uptrendline last June 2022. It attempted to rally but was rejected 2x at 1815 & then 1730, both along the black downtrendline from 1078 April 2022 top. For last 5 weeks, it has been chopping around 1678, the neckline of a big M-pattern started from the July 2018 low of 1169 up to the ATH...
BTC seems to be repeating a 2021 pattern before it BO the black line & rallies to 69k. Similarly, it broke below the red trendline, broke above it & came down again & retested it. Is a big rally also coming? BULLISH SCENARIO: If BTC also breaks above the black trendline in the next few days, then it will also break above the ma100 & ma50 lines & also the Ichimuko...