Overview I can't shake the feeling that a large market correction is around the corner and at the same time the market contradicts my sentiments by appearing stronger every day. So I decided to investigate the 1 Year Treasury Note ( TVC:US01Y ) which is directly affected by Fed Rates to see how the market correlated to those changes in the past. What I found...
Next week, on Wednesday, we are expecting FED Interest Rate Decision. Here are potential scenarios for Gold: Bullish If the price breaks and closes above 1987 daily resistance, it will be a strong bullish signal. A bullish continuation will be expected at least to 2000 level then. Bearish If the price breaks and closes below 1960 support, it will lead to a...
Check out my previous post "Breaking Down The FX Market: What You Need To Know" for a comprehensive video analysis. The AUDUSD has been in a bit of a tricky situation lately, as price has broken a key level and made a lower low. This has traders wondering where the pair may be headed next. However, before jumping in, it's important to wait for a pullback and not...
Microsoft Short Term - We look to Sell at 238.54 (stop at 249.55) Trading within a Bearish Channel formation. Selling spikes offers good risk/reward. Further downside is expected. Our expectation now is for this swing lower to continue towards the bottom of the trend channel, to complete a correction before buyers return. Our profit targets will be 211.20...
All in all it's not looking good for the bulls, but there is a case to be made for a stronger rally. It’s a tough upside down one but there’s a valid thesis. Basically BoE buying bonds now, pivoting… currency wars…energy crisis…. feds MAY pivot for the wrong reasons, bad reasons, namely because of systemic risk. In this case FEDS would be effectively short term...
its hard to predict what am i predicting now, its somewhat related to speculating, what am i saying is that due to FED's meeting, the market will react negatively and reach around 11520. but far enough who knows what will it be declared in the meeting so far. but i am saying such statement because just because of 'hike news' the market reacted negatively, so if...
WTI crude oil is currently trading at $83 a barrel. Who would have thought that with OPEC cutting oil production and Russia shutting down natural gas distribution, petroleum would be $10 cheaper than when the Ukraine War first started? Winter is coming to global economy. And financial markets everywhere would be bracing for a deep freeze in the coming...
Equity Indexes: CME Micro S&P 500 ( CME_MINI:MES1! ), Micro Russell 2000 ( CME_MINI:M2K1! ) On August 26th, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell declared to forcefully fight the worst inflation in 40 years. He warned that the Fed would continue raising interest rates, even if it would cause "some pain" to the U.S. economy. In an eight-minute speech at the Jackson Hole...
CME_MINI:ES1! Hello all! Just thought I would share my work here today for all those EW analysis junkies to critique. Along with some commentary on current market/geopolitical/economic conditions and where I think we are headed. With recession on the horizon like pink clouds in the morning for a sailor, we have to get our work (profits) in and get out of the...
CBOT_MINI:10Y1! CBOT_MINI:2YY1! The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is scheduled to meet on July 26-27. Market widely expects a 75-basis-points (bps) Fed Funds rate increase, from current target of 1.50%-1.75% to 2.25%-2.50%. The call for a 100-point hike, while still feasible, is weakened after U.S. gasoline price dropped 70 cents per gallon in the past...
USDCHF has traded into support prior to the US Fed Rate decision, which decides the rates in the USA. Technically the pair is at 61.8% fibo support and previous structure, and we anticipate a bounce from this level back into recent highs at the 0.9330 level. The RSI has given an overextended signal, and the bullish structure remains intact.
Take notice how correlated the lending rate is to the rate of fiat dollars printed. All that money was printed at 0% interest. Now, rates are going up and the printing presses are cooling down.
Bearish below $15 Looking to short it if it breaks support zone. Good Dividends but unsure if it's worth buying at support level. Swing Idea: 1. Short below $15 / Cover over $15.50 OR 2. Buy at support level and write a cover call when it gets to resistance level I think it will fall more as the fed rate hikes will impact all the REIT. I will monitor...
The USD/JPY is currently in a weak symmetrical triangle pattern, this is also coincidentally where the 25 MA and the 13 MA look like they will be crossing over in the near future (I would moreover say 13 MA crossing above the 25 MA, indicating a bullish play). Also, the Coppock curve is positive, but is slowly reaching prior resistance, so this could mean a...
After hitting our first TP on Friday (1.126) the pair is back trading inside the triangle after it it has recovered from the bearish breakout which didn't last long and therefore lost its significance. The main reasons behind this large recovery are : 1- Markets expecting the Fed to deliver a dovish statement on its last meeting in 2018. 2- EU and Italy reaching...
I just spotted a rising wedge on the DXY weekly chart which started with the dollar uptrend in early summer. As concerns over slower global growth increase over time , the Fed may shift its forward guidance and turn more dovish on its last 2018 meeting in the next few days. Combined, this bearish chart formation and maybe a more dovish tone from the Fed might end...
The chart mostly speaks for itself, but.. My Hypothesis: Signal 1: The Fed drastically lowers the interest rates. Money supply increases. Stocks inevitably go up due to there being more money in circulation. Signal 2: The Fed notices the inflation and drastically raises interest rates. Money supply becomes stagnant. Signal 3: Money supply is stagnant,...