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Feevrwarningsystem

The start of a long train wreakSo in conclusion, with the merals issue, supply issue, housing issue, inflation issue, investors heads in the sand issue, tech issue, incompetent leaders (all of them) issue and FED issue. This chart being a fraction of a fraction of a percent from inversion in 10-7 and already inverted in 30-20 makes more sense then the random PPT rally an hour before close today. The trajectory in my honest opinion is downward for markets and the economy and inversions in the bond market. It appears the bonds are signaling a new black swan, this we will have to wait and see (reference .com, 08, 2014 and the pandemic for more) There will always be gains and plenty of ways of making money during this downturn, always is. Nothing goes straight up or down without the inverse being true too. I am calling for a missive recession, tho this is just my opinion. Let me know what you think? Can the FED save the day? Do you see a recession? I want to hear your thoughts below.
TVC:US30Y
by Joshuakm
The start of a long train of woes for housingThis one will be super simple, not much to be stated here. With big corp and foreign investments going into housing not just in the states but globally, we are seeing some really crazy stuff in housing. This chart looks at new one family houses sold vs new housing permits and privately owned housing units total. In my honest opinion housing is, like everything, in a bubble and worse off it's reflecting the fomo that was in the markets prior to the downturn. Sadly I dont see an end to this housing insanity, not until a new economy rears it's head. This is only adding to the bond issues.
FRED:HSN1F
by Joshuakm
The start of a long train of correlationsSorry for the late post, I had to tweek this chart here. This is a comparison chart showing real disposable income to personal consumption expenditures, personal savings and corporate profit. Notice how the top two are now inverted. It's not 100% but that is your inflation. Less disposable income, higher priced expenditures. On the bottom I was tracking savings vs Corporate Profit. This was caused by the hand outs during the pandemic. This has now reverted back to pre 2020 levels after all that savings caught up in peoples accounts during the pandemic was needed after the money stopped flowing. But, how does this correlate to the previous bonds chart? Well in a subtle and curious way. As the correction in savings happened, inflation kicked up. This is highlighted by a date range. Red date ranges are 08 and the pandemic and the yellow is the inflation start. The key to the bond chart correlation being inflation. Now I get the obvious here, No I dont think the free handouts caused all this inflation, that would be crazy, just something I was tracking is all. In reality there are WAYYYYYY to many things going on to put inflation into a chart. Metals are still close to short supply, tech is hurting bad, the supply chain is still semi frozen and governments are still flip flopping between open and closed.
FRED:DSPIC96
by Joshuakm
The start of a long trainNote: FEEVRWS is only meant to be a analysis and early warning system, and is in no way a substitute for your regular work. Please do your own due diligence and if needed, consult a trusted professional. Today we will be looking at economic correlations and why bonds are moving the way they are. As of right now the 10y and 7y are a quarter of a quarter of a quarter of a percent away from inverting and a inversion percent in the 30y to 20y is as much currently. 30y to 20y is already inverted. There are MANY reasons why and this is not so simple. Bonds are selling off across the board with only the 1mo remaining the same. Tho today seems to be about flat, the trend continues. Housing, rate hikes, savings, inflation, liquidity, fomo speculation and foriagn investments are all tied to this and as a result the analysis will continue with other charts produced today
TVC:US30Y
by Joshuakm
Another monumental momentNote: FEEVRWS is only meant to be a analysis and early warning system, and is in no way a substitute for your regular work. Please do your own due diligence and if needed, consult a trusted professional. Before I get into this I urge everyone who sees this chart to back track to the .com bubble on this chart, then move up to 08, then check out pre lock downs. With that out of the way, lets get into the FEEVR Analysis! As mentioned above you should look at the historical data provided on this bonds chart. Today and over the weekend we saw the 30yr-20yr invert. This is bad for a number of reasons but mostly having to do with debt and inflation. as stated previously, the inversion marks the start of what can only be assumed as a flee from 'safe haven assets'. This is bad because bonds as a percent, tightening, has historically preluded some of the biggest economic and market wide black swans. Looking at the bond market it is repeating this trend and only seems to be starting which would make me assume through an educated guess that we are about 1 1/2 to 2yrs out from another major black swan, market altering event. Please, please, please be careful. We can time this and there is sure to be lots of money made during this time, just DONT be the last one to the exit. I am currently working on a analysis on the Comms sector of the S&P. That will be out tomorrow. Ic alle dit, telecommunications is rocking and internet is failing. I have identified manipulation in this sector on RRG and now I am just trying to nail it down on the charts here for you all to see. Happy monday everyone!
TVC:US30Y
by Joshuakm
LTC my favorite crypto!LTC could see a minor bounce before hitting that support. You bet I will be buying the dip if it does hit that support. With El Salvador adopting crypto it's only a matter of time before LTC and Iota start doing what cryptos do best. The RRG looks really crazy as the overall trend for most (but not all) crypto is a downtrend. If you finding gains on crypto rn, you are doing well off. But the RRG shows it will not last forever and the setup for crypto almost looks as amazing as gold and silver. Again this is just my opinion.
COINBASE:LTCUSD
by Joshuakm
Silver is soooo looowLast time I saw silver this low I bought A LOT. Silver has been doing exactly as it should be doing and it only took gold becoming a tier one asset. 23 as of right now with material sector of S&P looking great both short and long term and miners not being too affected by inflation. Shortages of metals are still there however and it looks like the premiums are here to stay, a year later. With Evergrand in the gutter, Chinese people are finding it hard to obtain their fiat notes. THIS is the exact reason why I stack. I pray we dont see a bank run but if we do us stackers should be ready, provided you know what to do with your metals. I feel in this environment Silver is in the perfect situation, if FED raises rates.
TVC:SILVERLong
by Joshuakm
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