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Fertilizer

🚀 Unveiling Trade Opportunities: FACT Fertilizers & ChemicalsWe're diving into the charts of FACT Fertilizers and Chemicals to uncover potential trade setups. Current Situation 📊: LTF Analysis: Currently, FACT is nestled in the 75-min demand zone, specifically the Rally 2 Base Rally (R2BR) zone. ITF Overview: The Intermediate Time Frame (ITF) shows a clear uptrend. The price is comfortably trading at the daily EMA20 HTF Insights: Zooming out to the Higher Time Frame (HTF), the weekly chart indicates a strong uptrend, and there's a clear path upside with no resistance in sight. Enter at the 75-min current demand zone, Risk-to-Reward Ratio: Aim for a lucrative 1:3. 🌟Thank you for your support! Your likes & comments. If you want to give any feedback then you can give in the comment section🌟 Trade with confidence, and let your profits run like a river. Embrace the journey! Disclaimer 🚨: This analysis is for educational purposes only. We aren't SEBI registered analysts. Trade responsibly.
NSE:FACTLong
by AfnanTAjuddin
2
Wheat and Fertilizer Futures: A Cash Cow for War Mongers In this layout I have Black Sea Wheat and Corn, Australian and Ukrainian Wheat, and 4 main Fertilizer (UREA) Futures. Conflict and Wars are good ways for Financial Institutions like Black Rock and State Street Corp oration to make a lot of money. What better way than to destroy the wheat fields/silos themselves and profit at the same time? These markets are built in blood and they are sitting on Advanced Fibonacci Blueprints showing who is really in control. Volatility may be seen as many Russia pulled out of the Black Sea Grain Deal. Wheat supplies will undergo straining for the foreseeable future.
CBOT:AUW1!Long
by MichaelBsul
Soybeans poised for a drop?Soybeans have certainly caught our attention as a classic head and shoulders pattern has emerged, suggesting a possible trend reversal. This implies a potential drop equivalent to the height from the head to the neckline, taking us towards the 900 level. Could this be signalling more downside in the soybean market? The current price action is intriguing as an attempt to break the neckline was rejected and prices now hover just below the neckline. Is this the prime moment to consider a short position on soybeans? We think it's worth exploring, and here's why... As we’ve last pointed out in the “It’s Corn!” idea in March, prices of the 3 major agriculture crops, Soybean, Wheat and Corn generally move together. Back then, we were highlighting the excessive premium in Corn futures as well as the break of a technical chart pattern. Now, we're witnessing a similar tale with Soybean stepping into the spotlight. From 2019 until now, these three crops have jockeyed for position in terms of percentage gain. Currently, Soybean is in the lead, when compared to Wheat and Corn, in terms of % gain from pre-COVID times and the onset of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Another way to look at it is to compare the ratio between Soybean & Corn as well as Wheat. The Soybean/Corn ratio is now at the higher end of its 7-year range, and while the Soybean/Wheat ratio not as extreme, is still closer to its range top. Another interesting dynamic we can look into is the Natural Gas – Fertilizers – Soybean dynamic. As natural gas is a key input in fertilisers production, the spectacular fall in natural gas prices has preceded falling fertiliser prices. This in turn, impacts soybean prices as well. Hence, we see a potential downside for Soybean as it trades at a premium as compared to Corn & Wheat. We can consider a short position on the Soybean Futures at the current level of 1340 with a stop at 1450 and take profits at 1250 followed by a subsequent take profit level at 900. This will allow profits on the anticipated downward move while also considering the head and shoulders pattern's target. CME’s Soybean Futures is quoted in U.S. cents per bushel. Each 0.0025 increment equal to 12.5$. The charts above were generated using CME’s Real-Time data available on TradingView. Inspirante Trading Solutions is subscribed to both TradingView Premium and CME Real-time Market Data which allows us to identify trading set-ups in real-time and express our market opinions. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com Disclaimer: The contents in this Idea are intended for information purpose only and do not constitute investment recommendation or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios. A full version of the disclaimer is available in our profile description. Reference: www.cmegroup.com
CBOT:ZS1!Short
by inspirante
Nutrien - Fertilizer Plays Into Growing Season, But a Coinflip2022's droughts and the Ukraine War put a lot of the world's food supply into question. Food commodity futures had a pretty bullish year. Since we're in mid-February and Western Hemisphere growing season is right upon us, fertilizer stocks are really worth paying attention to. Food scarcity is an even bigger issue with the Wuhan Pneumonia pandemic smashing Xi Jinping and his Chinese Communist Party over in Mainland China. The Party claims less than a hundred thousand people have died from COVID since this all began. But the Party is obviously lying about that, since China had 1.4 billion people and was the epicenter of the virus. America is on the other side of the ocean and lost 1.1+ million people. My point is that if China has really lost, say, 40 or 50 or 100 million people to the pandemic, the Party will need to import crops because there won't be all that many farmers around anymore to do the work of feeding the regime. This should be a bullish situation for food commodities and fertilizer. Nutrien is one of the market leaders, but this is a really difficult setup, a lot like flipping a coin, and here's why. 1. A monthly microgap at $64 that the algorithm spent a lot of effort keeping lows away from 2. Already a 40%+ retrace, but new lows haven't been set. 3. Daily bars show a perfect continuation of the downtrend line 4. Weekly bars show a sweep of the downtrend line 5. Earnings is Feb. 15 So, here's what I think at the moment. It's something of a gamble, but I think you can generate Alpha with puts on Nutrien before earnings. I say this, but realize that "generating Alpha" doesn't buy rice at the grocery store. It's like Sklansky Bucks in poker. Cool, you got +EV, but the donk took all your money. At least you can post a bad beat, I guess. In this case I think the play is not as unrealistic. Another fertilizer giant, CF Holdings, has earnings the same day: Feb. 15 postmarket, and started doing the bearish "orderblocking" thing two sessions ago These patterns before earnings are generally (emphasis on generally ) harbingers of a big gap down coming. The logic being that sell orders are being filled in anticipation of what smart money's big data analysis has already very accurately determined is about to happen Monday you get an FOMC member jawboning and Tuesday we get the dreaded CPI printout. It's a lot of volatility confluencing together in one big coagulate and if you guess right you win a cookie and if you guess wrong Wall Street guys will pay stripers with your money at 11:00 PM happy hour. In Nutrien's Q3 '22 financials the company told investors that they expected demand to be hot going into _fall_, and not spring, "Weather has been favorable in North America and we anticipate that the rapid pace of harvest will support strong fall ammonia demand and normal application rates of potash, phosphate and crop protection products." They also said, "We have lowered our global potash shipment forecast to between 60 and 62 million tonnes in 2022, largely due to the impact of higher-than-expected inventory and cautious buying in North America and Brazil during the second half of 2022." These two factors contrast against expectations from the company that expectations of higher 2023 commodity prices will lead to an increase in farm production, while noting that Ukraine will be down some 45% because of the war, notable because they were pretty much the world's wheat kings. Also noteworthy is Q3 was a big revenue/EPS miss for Nutrien. Estimates were 3.85 EPS and came in at $2.49. Revenue was $8.53B and came in at $7.91B. Q4 is a lot easier of a goalpost to hit, with estimates at $2.534 EPS and $7.392 Revenue. A miss here would (logically) definitely be a dumpster. So, ultimately, I think $110 Nutrien will come, and we may very well see this in the later part of '23, if not the early part of '24. But before then, it seems that the $60s are imminent. So, I'd rather do puts on CF than Nutrien into earnings as it stands, but staying flat and playing the consequences is a lot less risk. The two areas to watch for on Nutrien: 1. $63 to buy 2. $110 to sell It would be a big, bullish deal if Nutrien doesn't break this daily trendline and just dumps on earnings. $65 commons prices and 3-6+ month expiry call options should definitely be a fat return if you can ride it to the top.
NYSE:NTR
by LordWrymouth
2
It’s Corn!You know the “It’s Corn” song trending on TikTok? It brings a smile to our face every time we hear it. But if you look at Corn’s price chart and fundamental outlook, that’s a whole other story… Corn’s recent breakout of a symmetrical triangle towards the downside caught our attention. With the clear break and an ensuing retest, Corn is now trading right on previous support levels. We think this might just be a small reprieve in the downward direction it is headed. Not only that, when you zoom out to a longer timeframe, Corn has just broken its long-term trend support established since 2020. This combined with the symmetrical triangle break proves to provide a strong bearish case from here. Classical chart pattern analysis points the take-profit range from the triangle pattern, at roughly 292 points away. From the initial point of breakout, 292 points away takes us back to the 360 level which was the average price seen from 2014 to 2020, back to pre-covid and pre-Russian/Ukraine conflict levels. Additionally, in a or few previous analyses we emphasized how many of the commodities have started to return to ‘normality’ with prices moving back to pre-war levels. We have already seen Wheat and Soybean retracing most of the War rally as prices tumbled, therefore it’s not hard to see Corn do the same soon. Other supporting fundamental factors include the falling Ethanol prices and in turn, lower usage of corn for Ethanol, resulting in overall supply to increase. Fertilizer prices have also fallen from all-time highs, with continued downward momentum. Lower fertilizer cost means better margins for the farmers and potentially higher usage of fertilizers in planting, which may result in better crop yield. Both factors work to lower corn price through more competitive pricing from the farmers and increased supply. Combined, we think the fundamental and technical chart set-up provides a convincing case for Corn to fall lower. We set our stops above the triangle apex and at the previous level of resistance, 688, and our initial take-profit levels at 565 followed by 455, giving us a risk reward of roughly 1.46 and 3.66 from the current level of 637.6. Each 0.0025 point increment in CME Corn Futures is equal to 12.5 USD. The charts above were generated using CME’s Real-Time data available on TradingView. Inspirante Trading Solutions is subscribed to both TradingView Premium and CME Real-time Market Data which allows us to identify trading set-ups in real-time and express our market opinions. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com Disclaimer: The contents in this Idea are intended for information purpose only and do not constitute investment recommendation or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios. A full version of the disclaimer is available in our profile description. Reference: www.cmegroup.com www.cmegroup.com
CBOT:ZC1!Short
by inspirante
1
CVR Partners $UAN a deep value play for 2023NYSE:UAN A cheap fertilizer producer with strong fundamentals is a strong bet for 2023. Latest ER reported strong Revenue and EPS beats despite Russian fertiliser exports being at all time highs. MR Quarterly production was impacted by maintenance - this work has been completed and it is likely that production volumes will return to normal this coming quarter likely boosting revenues this year. Macro factors e.g. war in Eastern Europe will likely add uncertainty to the availability of fertilizer along key transport routes to western Europe as sanctions against Russia take effect - shipping routes from Turkey will likely be impacted. I expect this stock has 20% upside by end of 2023 excluding dividend.
NYSE:UANLong
by Bullish_On_Value
1
CF | Good Entry Point | LONGCF Industries Holdings, Inc. manufactures and sells hydrogen and nitrogen products for energy, fertilizer, emissions abatement, and other industrial activities worldwide. Its principal products include anhydrous ammonia, granular urea, urea ammonium nitrate, and ammonium nitrate products. The company also offers diesel exhaust fluid, urea liquor, nitric acid, and aqua ammonia products; and compound fertilizer products with nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium. It primarily serves cooperatives, independent fertilizer distributors, traders, wholesalers, and industrial users. The company was founded in 1946 and is headquartered in Deerfield, Illinois.
NYSE:CFLong
by DivergenceSeeker
1
MOS ( Global Fertilizer /Agricultural ) Breaks outAs can be seen on the daily chart, MOS has broken out of a descending megaphone pattern into a good uptrend which rates 7/8 by Minervini trend analysis. The RSI indicator shows increasing strength as the RSI rises above its Ichimoku cloud. I see this as an excellent swing-long setup given the strong fundamentals of this fertilizer company in the face of the current global macroeconomic picture ( See the link below) A market peer in the ag sector is IPI.
NYSE:MOSLong
by AwesomeAvani
Sumitomo Chemical - Symmetrical Triangle Breakout Soon 📊 Script: SUMICHEM (SUMITOMO CHEMICAL INDIA LIMITED) 📊 Nifty50 Stock: NO 📊 Sectoral Index: NIFTY 500 / NIFTY MIDCAP 📊 Sector: Chemicals 📊 Industry: Fertilizers & Agrochemicals Key highlights: 💡⚡ ⚠️ Keep an eye on SUMICHEM . ⚠️ It is near at its resistance zone which is around 500. ⚠️ Script is going to give double breakout which is trendline breakout and Symmetrical Triangle Breakout as mention in chart. ⏱️ BUY ABOVE AROUND 500 ⚠️ If its give breakout then one can go for swing trade. ⚠️ Important: Always maintain your Risk & Reward Ratio. ✅Like and follow to never miss a new idea!✅ Disclaimer: I am not SEBI Registered Advisor. My posts are purely for training and educational purposes. Eat🍜 Sleep😴 TradingView📈 Repeat🔁 Happy learning with trading. Cheers!🥂
NSE:SUMICHEMLong
by radha_23
1
MOS Weekly TA Neutral BullishMOSUSD Weekly neutral with a bullish bias. Recommended ratio: 55% MOS, 45% Cash . *Fertilizer and grain prices are going down as supply chains ease due to a deal between Russia, Belarus and Ukraine that allows sanctions on fertilizer exports from Belarus and Russia to be lifted in exchange for Russia allowing Ukraine to resume grain exports from the Black Sea through Turkey. However, this could be short-lived considering: a) it's a deal with Russia who literally bombed a port in Odessa the day after signing the deal and b) that the world's second largest producer of fertilizer behind Russia (China) is likely to continue suspending exports of phosphates for the rest of 2022 . Although Mosaic's earnings and revenue were both up on the quarter they missed consensus estimates, while competitor Nutrien beat both estimates and had record earnings in the previous quarter; however, Mosaic expects revenue to continue to be strong for the remainder of 2022.* Price is currently trending up at $52.50 after breaking above the descending trendline from 04/18/22, it also broke above the 50 MA and $49 resistance and will need to close above it this week in order to reestablish support. Volume has been shrinking for the previous seven sessions (indicative of a potential pending breakout/breakdown) and is currently on track to favor buyers for five consecutive sessions if it can close this week in the green. Parabolic SAR flips bullish at $74.55, this margin is bullish at the moment. RSI is currently trending sideways at 50 after bouncing off the uptrend line from September 2015 at 40 support; the next resistance is at 53. Stochastic remains bullish and is currently trending up at 39 as it is still technically testing 29 resistance. MACD remains bearish and is currently trending sideways at -0.50 as it continues to form a trough, in order for a bullish crossover it would have to break above 1.10; the next resistance is 1.75. ADX is currently trending down slightly at 23 as Price is attempting to reverse the downtrend, this is neutral at the moment. If Price is able to establish support at $50 then the next likely target is a test of $56 resistance . However, if Price breaks down back below $50 support , it will likely retest the uptrend line from March 2020 at ~$45 . Mental Stop Loss: (one close below) $50 .
NYSE:MOS
by dailytaguy
1
CHAMBAL FERTILIZERHello and welcome to this analysis The stock is at the PRZ of a Bullish Harmonic Cypher formed in Weekly time frame. A bounce/reversal till 340 to 375 is probable as long as it does not break 250. Risk Reward for the trade is v good at 1:3 Harmonic Trading Patterns consolidate and then give strong follow through of trends. Since this is based on weekly time frame, trading it via derivatives could be risky as it will be a time consuming one with pullbacks and sideway along the path till its target, hence, cash based entry is advisable.
NSE:CHAMBLFERTLong
by Dinesh_C_Nagpal
2
MOS Daily TA Cautiously BearishMOS Daily cautiously bearish. Recommended ratio: 15% MOS, 85% Cash. *Putin continues his quest to annex all of Eastern Ukraine and has now concentrated attacks in Lysychans'k which is one of the last Ukrainian strongholds in Luhansk (the fall of this city will all but guarantee that Eastern Ukraine belongs to Russia). President Biden announced today the US will be establishing a V Corps (US Army) operation headquarters in Poland and has significantly boosted military presence/aid on NATO's Eastern Flank. Turkey lifted their veto on Sweden and Finland joining NATO , expanding NATO's presence in Europe. Potash and phosphate prices remain high but have come down a bit recently due to producers like Nutrien vowing to boost production (potash specifically) in response to the supply chain interruptions in Russia, Belarus and Ukraine.* Price is currently testing the 200 MA as support at ~$48 after briefly breaking above it to touch $51.50 in yesterday's session; this is likely a rejection at the 200 MA as resistance but there is still a chance that Price can bounce here considering that it is currently breaking out of the descending trendline from 04/14/22. Additionally, Price is currently defending the uptrend line from March 2020 (~$45); this is an important trendline because if it breaks below it would suggest that the uptrend was due in large part to QE and a near-0% rate environment. Volume is Moderate (low) and is currently on track to favor sellers for a second consecutive session. Parabolic SAR flips bullish at $51.36, this margin is mildly bullish. RSI is currently trending down at 38 after being rejected by the descending trendline from 03/04/22 at 40.33 resistance. Stochastic remains bullish and is currently testing 80.49 resistance with no signs of peak formation. MACD remains bearish but is currently trending up at -3.33 as it attempts to break above -3.20 and form a bullish crossover; the next resistance is at -2.52 and support at -4.11. ADX is currently trending down slightly at 30 as Price is attempting to push higher, this is mildly bullish at the moment. If Price is able to defend support at the 200 MA (~$48) then it will likely continue up to test $55.79 minor resistance . However, if Price breaks down here, it will likely retest the uptrend line from March 2020 at ~$45 before potentially heading lower to retest $42.50 support. Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes above) $48.78.
NYSE:MOS
by dailytaguy
3
Up In Smoke - MJ burning downA great 2x inverse ETN for this recession is MJIN, which is opposite of MJXL. By early morning of June 8, SMG reported less expected FY22 earnings, sales & profits. This largely affects weed ETFs due to heavy use of their products for growing, as we can see the spike here shortly after the news broke. In this case, due to rising inflation across the economy, most cannabis users will likely go underground to unregulated markets to find somewhat cheaper MJ. So take this ETN & get high.
MLong
by roelds