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Fertilizer

MOS/USD Daily TA Neutral BearishMOS/USD Daily neutral with a bearish bias. * Fed minutes were released today and confirms that the Fed is committed to two more rate hikes in June and July of at least 50 bps with potential for another 50-75 bp hike in September, and that they will sell mortgage backed securities (rather than let them roll over) if necessary as a means of reducing their balance sheet. Equity markets are currently responding positively but this could be short-lived. Additionally, to address the global food shortage, last week the U.N. proposed a plan for Russia to unblock grain exports from Ukraine through the Black Sea in exchange for reducing Western sanctions on fertilizer exports from Russia and Belarus; considering that Russia has found willing buyers of their fertilizer at higher price points, this is unlikely to pass anytime soon.* Recommended ratio: 40% MOS, 60% cash. Price is currently breaking down out of the uptrend line from 01/24/22 but is still technically testing it as support at ~$60. Volume remains high (moderate) and alternating between buyers and sellers every other day for what is now twelve consecutive sessions; this is indicative of potential consolidation. Parabolic SAR flips bullish at $66 which currently coincides with the 50 MA, this margin is neutral at the moment. RSI is currently trending up at 45.48 but is still technically testing 40.33 support; if it is able to establish support here it will likely test 58.12 resistance. Stochastic crossed over bullish in today's session and is currently trending up at 59; the next resistance is at 80.49 and support at 39.11. MACD remains bearish and is currently trending sideways at -1.65 as it continues to hover just below the Signal line (-1.54); if it is able to break out above -1.54 it would be a bullish crossover. ADX is currently trending up slightly at 19 as Price continues to fall, this is mildly bearish. If Price is able to reclaim support at the uptrend line from 01/24/22 (~$60) this would also imply that it has broken out of the descending trendline from 04/18/22 and would likely prompt a retest of $64.22 resistance. However, if Price continues to break down here then it will likely retest $55.79 minor support before potentially testing the 200 MA (for the first time since 12/01/21) at ~$46.28. Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes above) $60.40.
NYSE:MOS
by dailytaguy
MOS/USD Daily TA Cautiously BearishMOS/USD Daily cautiously bearish. *USD bouncing back today as equity markets plunge lower.* Recommended ratio: 25% MOS, 75% cash. Price is currently trending down at $58 and is still technically testing the uptrend line from 01/24/22 at $59.50. Volume remains moderate and fairly balanced between buyer and sellers over the past nine sessions; though premature, this is indicative of consolidation. Parabolic SAR flips bullish at $66.33 (coincides with the 50 MA). RSI is currently trending down and testing 40.33 support. Stochastic remains bearish and is currently trending down at 53.04; the next support is at 39.11. MACD remains bearish after being denied a bullish crossover at -1.32 and is currently trending down at -1.73; the next support is at -0.94. ADX is currently trending sideways at 18.54 as Price is defending a critical support at the uptrend line from 01/24/22; if ADX starts trending back up as Price falls, this would be bearish. If Price continues to fall here and therefore breaks out of the uptrend line from 01/24/22, then the next likely target is a retest of $55.79 minor support. However, if Price is able to bounce here then it will likely retest $64.22 resistance. Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes above) $60.
NYSE:MOS
by dailytaguy
2
CANE - Fertilizer Shortage TradeIt's a Brave New World. Fertilizer was facing a shortage going into 2022 (like most commodities, it has had a undersized amount of investment, with tech seeing most of the in flows) but after the Putin YOLO (that's my ELI5), potash is now in shortage. Using that fact as a basis for expanding my commodity thesis to include more food commodities. I picked CANE because of the chart. Sugar has not caught bids like soy and corn and it's chart is a screaming buy. Before smashing the market buy button like an ape, watch the long standing resistance level we are at right now. This resistance has held since 2017 so this is a critical level. I am expecting a retest at the 9.75 level where I will be looking at the volume response. I'm so itchy to buy that I might buy regardless of response, the tailwinds are simply too strong to ignore. It is taking a great deal of restraint to wait for a response but since it is such a vital level and I want the best entry possible, patience and watching volume response is the name of the game. I will update with entry price. Happy hunting, Good luck, and God speed.
AMEX:CANELong
by SloppySeconds
MOS: Trading the ChannelBuilding on the prior idea, this stock remains good but fundamentally is priced well. I think we have seen a fundamental shift in demand for the shares and they will remain channel bound upward until we see a significant change. Institutions have been re-balancing their portfolios (ETFs/Mutual Funds etc) with names like MOS giving it a boost in demand (and removal of supply). However, this is a double edged sword as this will mean that as their portfolio sells off (let's say from individuals selling the ETF - or just a broad risk reduction) MOS will get picked up in the beta (as their portfolios naturally have positive beta to the major indices). For this reason, I think we can revise our view to be slightly less bullish and apply more of a longer term channel trading program. If the shares sell off institutions will top off the trade, and if it rallies it will get sold as part of risk management procedures. I will look to buy/sell channels and top off the trade by legging into strangles as they approach the channel top and bottom. The original "Bullish Breakout Trade" remains profitable for me and I see no reason to take profits here. I don't think the agricultural crises gets resolved any time soon (or possible in the next 5 years as we enter a new cold war era) and structurally this remains a bullish trade. The latest sell off establishes the channel range. I marked 2 interesting points to comment on how the trading structure of the stock changed. The first is the revised upward slope in an otherwise general multi-year downtrend indicating some slowing down in sellers. The other is a total change of character (capitulation at the end of the trend), marked by a long bar that clearly looks like a reversal, with good volume behind it and then little effort to move the stock up. Most likely at the end of this upward channel we will see something similar of the like.
NYSE:MOSLong
by quantitativetendies
That’s going to be one expensive steak!Where can we feel the impact of high inflation most directly in our daily lives? Food and energy! Livestock is a market that certainly deserves more of our attention. Surging energy prices (especially natural gas) have led to high fertilizer prices, which pushed up grain prices. Eventually, that gets translated into higher prices for livestock which are heavily affected by the prices of corn and other feeds. The transmission takes time; therefore, the opportunity window to position ourselves is still open. It’s also a good time to stock up on some premium steaks in your freezer before they get a lot more expensive! December 2022 Live Cattle future has just broken out from a 10-week ascending triangle, which suggests that the next leg of the rally has likely started. Entry at 150.5, stop below 146.5. Targets are 155.5 and 160.5. Disclaimer: The contents in this Idea are intended for information purpose only and do not constitute investment recommendation or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios.
CME:LEZ2022Long
by inspirante
$NTR Above the 9 SMA and 200 SMAAbove the 9 SMA and 200 SMA, MACD is switching over, and RSI has Go Go Juice Nutrien ($NTR) the world’s largest corporate potash producer is increasing production by 10% to 15 million metric tons for 2022. The stock’s share price is up +20% this year. Disclaimer: Stratford Research newsletters reflect the research and opinions of only the authors who are associated persons of Stratford Consulting Ltd. The newsletters are for informational purposes only and are not a recommendation of an investment strategy or recommendation to buy or sell any security or digital asset (cryptocurrency, etc.) in any account. The information provided within the newsletters is not intended to serve as the basis for any investment decision. Any third-party information provided therein does not reflect the views of Stratford Consulting Ltd. or any of its subsidiaries or affiliates. All investments involve risk including the loss of principal and past performance does not guarantee future results.
NYSE:NTRLong
by atrusik
Fertilizer Companies Are Going To ProfitThe energy crisis in Europe and other parts of the world is a sure thing. Prices are going up, salaries are left far behind. Of course, inflation isn't limited to energies (and related products), but as part of the diversification process, I opted for at least one fertilizer company. The thing is that a lot of energy is consumed in a process of creating conventional fertilizers. An initial shock will likely shake the industry a bit, but those who persevere will set higher prices. And if an absolute price value is higher, it will be easier to sneak in higher margins. Fertilizers are a must. As the prices roam through different assets, from basic resources they will continue to final products over time. But one thing politicians can't afford is for food to get expensive. You can literally measure how much the revolution is worth in the food prices. If a majority of the people have to spend over 40% of their income, chances for revolution grow drastically based on the historical record. While I am still looking for good Magnesium miners that my broker has available , I will be looking to get SMT at a discount. The price has grown a little on the dividends increase announced last week, but as it is always, it might have overshot. Yet to validate, the below chart shows the price behavior in the previous two years. Seems like there tends to be a little downswing in March from which, there is sustained growth. I will be looking into the seasonality later again but if this is correct, I wouldn't be scared to buy now and hold at least until late winter as, throughout this period, there was continuous growth both of the times (yellow background highlights December each year). Furthermore, the price is just above 200 EMA (black line). From a technical perspective, breaching this level should signify bullish continuation. One more good thing - the other fertilizer companies are making all-time highs along with the markets. SMT is left behind big-way which means it has much more room for growth shall opportunity arise. So why am I waiting for the discount? Friday has closed above 200 EMA but is not all too convincing. It got there only narrowly at the end of the day and for how little it moved, there was just too much volume. I suspect some people are getting rid of their shares and will push the price lower for a few moments before it resumes its original direction. A preliminary entry is around 50 EMA (red).
NYSE:SMG
by OrcChieftain
Inverse H&S on the Verde Agritech weekly chart targets $1.00The weekly chart of Verde Agritech is showing an inverse head and shoulders pattern that appears to have completed. A breakout from the current level (~$0.57) will confirm the pattern. The distance from the head to the neckline is $0.43, so the target of this chart pattern is $1.00. Fundamentals are supportive in that the company is establishing itself as a domestic supplier of potash to the Brazilian agricultural market and is steadily growing production and revenues. The product has been shown to be highly effective for coffee, soybeans and other crops while also being less damaging to the soil.
ALong
by carbon8ed
Fertilizer Stocks look ready to bottom and Nutrien best pick.The promise of better weather this growing season (Farmer's Almanac) than terrible 2019, Locusts in Africa destroying crops and possible higher demand in China for agricultural products should improve sales for nutrients. Canada has the 2nd largest reserves of Potash in the world, and is the leader in terms of global production. One advantage for the price of potassium chloride is the fact that more than one producer has curtailed production of late. Low natural gas prices an advantage for Nutrien in Canada when it comes to Nitrogen fertilizer. They also have large retail network worldwide. At a P/E of 16X trailing earnings, a 4% dividend yield and substantial free cash flow, the stock seems good value here.
NYSE:NTRLong
by malvinspooner
1