Fiatcurrency
Pfizer manipulates the marketPre pandemic this stock was in the process of a bear market. Big handed investors prepared their investors where to move money. With the help of the government they can now force every citizen to take their manufactured "Drug" for life.
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Big government is working for big business to keep money flowing into their pockets for Life. Gov+Mandates= money for an entirety of human life will go into big pharmaceuticals.
Al those yellow lines are day gaps in money that need to be filled. What will be the last domino and when?
The Dollar Index Breaks Higher - A MirageAfter trading at the highest level since 2002 during the risk-off period when COVID-19 spread worldwide like a wildfire, the US dollar index fell, making lower highs and lower lows from March 2020 through January 2021. The index fell from 103.96 to a low of 89.165, a 14.2% decline in the index that measures the dollar against other world reserve currencies.
The Fed tightens without tightening credit
The dollar index breaks above a technical level
The greenback remains in a medium-term bearish trend
The long-term trend is higher
Fiat currency moves are a mirage for one critical reason
After consolidating around the 90 level from mid-May through mid-June, the dollar index took off on the upside in the aftermath of the latest Fed meeting. While the dollar has moved higher and eclipsed a short-term technical resistance level, the medium-term trend remains bearish. To confuse matters, the long-term trend dating back to 2008 is bullish for the US dollar index.
Governments and monetary authorities manage currency markets to provide stability for global financial markets. Meanwhile, the overall foreign exchange market is more than a mirage because it is not readily apparent if the asset class gains or loses value in a larger sense. The bottom line is that the dollar and other fiat currencies rely on the full faith and credit of the governments that issue the legal tender. The dollar may be rallying against other currencies, but it can also be losing purchasing power making the entire currency market a farce.
The Fed tightens without tightening credit
At the June Federal Market Committee meeting, the US central bank left the short-term Fed Funds intact at zero to twenty-five basis points. The committee said it would leave its quantitative easing program unchanged and continue to purchase $120 billion in debt securities each month. The only change was a slight increase of five basis points in the reverse repo rate. The bottom line is the Fed continued on its accommodative monetary policy path.
Meanwhile, the central bank increased its GDP growth forecast from 6.5% to 7% and its inflation expectations from 2.5% to 3.4%. While very little changed, the rhetoric shifted towards tighter credit policies as the Fed acknowledged rising inflationary pressures. Seven committee members project a rate hike in 2022, with two expecting two increases in the Fed Funds rate. The markets viewed the statements and rhetoric as a sign that tighter policy is on the horizon and tapering QE will occur sooner rather than later.
Commodity prices fell in the wake of the Fed meeting as rising interest rates increase the cost of carrying raw material inventories and financing production. The dollar moved higher as interest rate differentials are a critical factor for the value of one currency versus another.
The dollar index breaks above a technical level
The dollar index took off on the upside in the wake of the June FOMC meeting, surpassing a short-term technical resistance level.
The daily chart of the September dollar index futures contract illustrates the move above the May 5 91.41 high on June 16, the day after the June Fed meeting. The index rose to a high of 92.395 on June 18 before correcting. At the end of last week, the September dollar index settled at the 91.844 level, above the breakout level at 91.41, which is now technical support. The prospects for higher US interest rates were bullish winds in the dollar’s sails.
The greenback remains in a medium-term bearish trend
While the dollar index rose above a technical resistance level, the greenback remains in a bearish medium-term trend despite the recent rally.
The weekly chart shows that the index has made lower highs and lower lows since March 2020. To negate that bearish trading pattern, it needs to rise above the critical resistance level at the 93.47 level from the week of March 29, 2021. If the dollar index stalls and fails to rise above that high, it will put in another lower peak to continue the bearish trend over the past fourteen months.
The long-term trend is higher
To confuse matters, the dollar index’s long-term technical picture remains bullish over the past thirteen years.
The quarterly chart highlights a pattern of higher lows and higher highs for the dollar index since reaching a bottom at 70.805 in early 2008.
With a bullish short-term trend, a bearish medium-term pattern, and a bullish long-term trend, the path of least resistance of the US currency against other world reserve currency remains in doubt. However, it may not matter if the dollar index moves higher or lower against the euro, yen, pound, and other leading fiat currencies. The index could be a mirage masking the overall weakness in the foreign exchange arena.
Fiat currency moves are a mirage for one critical reason
The foreign exchange market only measures the value of one currency versus another. The price differentials tell us nothing about purchasing power other than if one foreign exchange instrument is trending higher or lower against another.
The recent rise in the dollar index that followed on the heels of a more hawkish tone from the Fed could be a mirage. The bottom line is the dollar’s purchasing power has been declining. The May CPI data shows a 5% increase and a 3.8% rise, excluding food and energy. While many commodity prices corrected lower in June, crude oil and natural gas made new multi-year highs. The energy commodities power the US and the world. Rising prices are inflationary.
Inflation erodes the value of money, making it more expensive for consumers to purchase essentials. While the dollar index recovered from the 90 to around the 92 level, the move is a mirage that masks the long-term trend in all fiat currencies. In 2019 and 2020, gold reached a record high in all fiat currency terms. Gold in euros, pounds, yen, dollars and most other foreign exchange instruments rose to record levels. Central banks hold gold as an integral part of their foreign exchange reserves, making the yellow metal a reserve currency alongside the dollar and the euro.
The bottom line is that inflationary pressures continue to rise. The dollar index could continue to power higher over the coming days, weeks, and months, but the US currency could be weakening at the same time. A pivot towards a more hawkish approach to US monetary policy may lift the US currency, but that may only make the dollar the healthiest horse in the glue factory.
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VIX to 0?!?In terms of long term allocation, I wouldn't touch equities with a ten-foot pole!
That being said, with the amount of currency being created every second, all prices will continue to rise exponentially, and the proximity of financial assets to the source of this inflation (the Federal Reserve) will continue to favor their valuations!
Would a uncontrolled rise in treasury yields lead to a sizeable correction in equities and a rising VIX? Absolutely.
Is it likely that the Federal Reserve would intervene to an even greater extent than the 2008 and 2019 Global Financial Crises? Absolutely.
Therefore, I believe the long term trend of volatility in all prices is much, much lower...
Is it too late to long Bitcoin?Feeling late to the crypto party? Please friends keep in mind that less than 0.5% of the planet are long Bitcoin yet. As I have said, even on the terms of thinking generationally, we are still in the genesis.
As Lord Elon Musk himself stated recently, "There is a good chance crypto, is the future currency of earth."
My take as has been consistent through this whole bull market, is "nibble on dips and enjoy the rips".
My plan for bailing on my massive bitcoin position is when the Fed starts touting raising interest rates.
What happened with Bitcoin literally this week?
Fed comes out publishing a paper mentioning strengths the DeFi network will bring to consumers research.stlouisfed.org
Fed's academic paper literally mentions wrapped Eth -right on their website.
Miami FL proposes for local taxes to be paid in Bitcoin, and for employees to have a percentage of wages paid in Bitcoin. nypost.com
Nigerian Senate advises that "Bitcoin has made our currency almost useless or valueless"... just shocking
Jack Dorsey & Jay Z invest 500 BTC to make Bitcoin "Internet Currency in an endowment to fund development in Africa & India" techcrunch.com
BNY Mellon (America's oldest bank) offers institutions access to Bitcoin www.wsj.com
JPMorgan co-president and COO Daniel Pinto has said that the banking giant will support bitcoin trading if there is client demand for it.
Exciting times friends. And I must advise that if you even view Bitcoin as a moonshot - even moonshots deserve a small bit of exposure within any portfolio aiming at the stars. This is not financial advice, but my personal opinion as I have certainly partake in this mindsight with much more than a small bit of exposure as the bull market clearly unfolded. www.theblockcrypto.com
Additional Citation:
finance.yahoo.com
www.cnbc.com
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Long term indicators turning positive - WWide Stimulus = SLV+Long term indicators are turning positive whilst the FIAT money printing is increasing world wide to counter-effect Covid-19. As a counterbalance precious metals and diamonds act as value preservatives. With this reasoning my speculation is that we are getting closer to a clear turningpoint within this field. Due to this I'm long silver both as investment and hedge towards unforseen effects being born out of the post-covid world.
Negative Rates will come!1) Inflationary pressures will continue to push yields on the 10-year treasury note higher as treasuries are sold
2) This will overwhelm the debt-burdened economy and financial system, leading to a sovereign debt/financial crisis (a credit freeze)
3) The Federal Reserve will intervene to ease lending (even more so than in the repo market right now, where they are injecting more than a trillion dollars every night!) , unleashing a torrent of currency into the financial system and the economy and ultimately pushing yields into negative territory
4) This will undermine any remaining faith in the Federal Reserve Note and all central bank fiat currencies, as money velocity, consumer price inflation and the cost of inflation hedges all soar much higher, leading to a currency crisis
5) Governments will obtain a previously unseen amount of power as the entire western savings base is inflated away and standards of living in the west fall to the levels of developing nations
TUNE INTO MY LIVE STREAM ON THURSDAY THE 11th AT 6pm TO DISCUSS FURTHER! ALL QUESTIONS AND OPINIONS WILL BE ANSWERED! :)
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EURUSDHELLO TRADERS
EURUSD in weekly chart shows the Bigger picture of what the market is up to. HOW MANY OF YOU GUYS ARE REALLY TO TRADE BIG. First we have to know that this chart is heading to it's support level which is around 1.16079. then after that we expect to be in Bullish 🚀 to the area of 1.38817.
There we can analysis what else the market will do.
IF YOU LIKE BE PREVIOUS CHARTS AND HAVE MADE YOU TRADE BETTER OR MADE YOU ANALYSIS WELL, FOLLOW UP AND COMMENT.
HAVE A NICE DAY TRADING
Crypto is in a Bubble: Prove me Wrong!Do you think crypto is in a bubble that will pop soon? Or is it still going much higher?
Tune into my live stream on Sunday January 31st at 5:30pm EST to respectfully discuss and debate!
SHARE YOUR OPINIONS AND QUESTIONS IN THE CHAT, they are encouraged and will be answered!
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Make or Break Time!A telling divergence has occurred between the price of action of gold and silver!
While gold prices in late-November/early-December formed a lower low, silver prices formed a higher high!
It is well understood that silver outperforms gold in precious metals bull markets!
Is this divergence therefore indicating that we seen the lows in this period of correction and another move higher is coming?
Or is gold indicating that another severe fall in the price of silver is coming?
I believe the falling wedge that has been formed in gold's recent price action has been fulfilled and we are about to see a significant move higher in precious metal prices!
Where will Demand become Supply?Are we looking at a small rally? Or a serious correction upwards?
An easing phase by the ECB combined with rising interest rates may trigger some temporary strength in the U.S. dollar!
This could spell a correction period for asset prices (or not), but most importantly it could send gold and silver prices on another leg downwards, putting them absolutely on sale!
Any dollar-induced dips in commodities, gold and silver especially, should be bought hand over fist!
GDP is Collapsing!If you compare GDP to the amount of currency in existence, it has been falling for 2 decades!
Remember, M2 is a fraction of the total money supply, therefore GDP has fallen by even more!
Ironically, people fail to realize that Money Velocity, what they point to as causing "deflation", is a much better indicator of stagflation!
It is likely that the exploding currency supply will begin to leak into goods and services rather than remain within the financial system!
This will send GDP higher, which of course all the politicians will point to as proof of the success of their policies, but in reality this will simply means bigger bills for you at the grocery store!
Hiding in Plain Sight!A massive cup and handle pattern has been completed on Silver!
This same patterns can be seen on the charts of the price of gold and silver in Venezuela and Zimbabwe before their hyperinflations!
Manipulation is Ending!As demand for physical gold and silver explode, the banksters' ability to keep prices artificially low are failing!
Scotiabank ended it's 350-year role in the precious metals market and J.P. Morgan (the most infamous manipulator) is no longer net short after the bear trap in March 2020.
The banks who do not terminate their short positions will suffer massive losses as gold and silver prices soar, just like A.I.G., Bear Sterns, The Lehman Brothers and Merill Lynch in 2008!
The Dollar is Going Down!The Federal Reserve is accomplishing its 108-year plan of the total destruction of the U.S. dollar!
While there may be a correction coming, the Euro is clearly a safer currency than the U.S. dollar and will appreciate against it in the long term.
The inter-bank lending market is completely communist at this point, the Federal Reserve is alleviating any semblance of a lack of dollars worldwide, and any remaining reasons to continue using the U.S. dollar as a world reserve currency are rapidly disappearing!
Bitcoin BTC at these levels. Recharge or more pullback?I'd rather be long than short here but any pullback will be bought. 21M total, at least 5-10% of the initial coins are in test wallets lost forever. Every forgotten a password? Well with the private/publics keys (or nemonic phrase BU) , you lose it, you've lost your bitcoins to destiny.
I'm going neutral here until the bulls proves their force after this, much needed, overbought relief. Hopefully, I'll be able to load up cheaper but waiting for dips on this rocket has been a challenge and I don't think it's going to get better?
Don't bet the farm on this, it's just numbers on a distributed world wide secure ledger controlled by owners of the assets themselves.... humm...