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INFLATION VS DEFLATION!INDUSTRIAL METAL PRICES HAVE BEEN SQUEEZED BY 2 OPPOSING BUY-SIDE FACTORS: 1) A SLOWING, DEPRESSIONARY WORLD ECONOMY WITH DIMINISHED DEMAND FOR ENERGY AND INDUSTRIAL MATERIALS, ALONG WITH A GLOBAL DOLLAR SHORTAGE! 2) CENTRAL BANKS ENGAGING IN RECORD-LEVEL CURRENCY CREATION COMBINED WITH UNPRECEDENTED FISCAL STIMULUS BY GLOBAL GOVERNMENTS! IF INFLATION PROVIDES SUPPORT TO THE PRICE OF OIL, INDUSTRIAL METALS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN PRICE FROM THEIR '15-'16 BOTTOM!
TVC:USOILLong
by UnknownUnicorn4195243
PETER SCHIFF VS JEFF SNIDER!THIS POST WILL HELP YOU UNDERSTAND THE COMPETING VIEW POINTS ON THE FUTURE PERFORMANCE OF THE U.S. DOLLAR RELATIVE TO OTHER CURRENCIES! JEFF SNIDER'S POSITION ON THE DOLLAR: THE U.S. DOLLAR IS STRONG BECAUSE OF A SHORTAGE OF DOLLARS WORLDWIDE TO CONDUCT GLOBAL TRADE IN, DUE TO THE FED'S INABILITY TO TRULY SATISFY DEMAND FOR U$Ds, AND WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS LONG AS FOREIGN CURRENCIES ARE SOLD TO BUY U$Ds. PETER SCHIFF'S POSITION ON THE DOLLAR: THE U.S. DOLLAR IS STRONG BECAUSE OF AN IRRATIONAL FAITH IN THE U.S. ECONOMY BY FOREIGNERS AND THE WILLINGNESS OF PRODUCTIVE ECONOMIES WORLDWIDE TO USE AND ACCEPT PRINTED U.S. DOLLARS IN GLOBAL TRADE, SUBSIDIZING THE CONSUMPTION AND TRADE DEFICIT OF THE U.S. JEFF SNIDER'S POSITION ON U.S. TREASURIES: THE U.S. GOVERNMENT BOND MARKET HAS BEEN BID HIGHER FOR DECADES AS U.S. TREASURIES PROVIDE THE SAFEST SOURCE OF U$Ds AND ARE THE MOST ACCEPTED FORM OF COLLATERAL FOR U$D LEVERAGE. IF U$D LIQUIDITY BECOMES CONSTRAINED ENOUGH WORLDWIDE, A SELL-OFF IN THE GLOBAL U.S. TREASURY MARKET CAN OCCUR AS THEY ARE SOLD FOR THE IMMEDIATELY NEEDED U$Ds, RAISING INTEREST RATES THROUGHOUT THE FINANCIAL SYSTEM AND THE ECONOMY. PETER SCHFF'S POSITION ON U.S. TREASURIES: THE FEDERAL RESERVE'S ARTIFICIAL SUPPRESSION OF INTEREST RATES SINCE THE 1990's THROUGH QE , COUPLED WITH THE USE OF U$Ds IN GLOBAL TRADE AND THE IRRATIONAL FAITH BY FOREIGNERS THAT THE FEDERAL RESERVE COULD SHRINK ITS BALANCE SHEET AND NORMALIZE INTEREST RATES HAS LED TO FOREIGN CAPITAL BIDDING UP THE PRICE OF U.S. GOVERNMENT BONDS. ONCE THAT FAITH IN THE DOLLAR'S SCARCITY IS DIMINISHED AND PRODUCTIVE ECONOMIES WORLDWIDE REFUSE TO HOLD/ACCEPT U$Ds AND SUBSIDIZE AMERICAN CONSUMPTION, U.S. TREASURIES WILL BE SOLD-OFF, RAISING INTEREST RATES THROUGHOUT THE FINANCIAL SYSTEM AND THE ECONOMY. JEFF SNIDER'S VIEW ON THE FUTURE OF THE DOLLAR: AS LONG AS THE FEDERAL RESERVE FAILS TO ADDRESS THE COMPLEX NEED FOR U$Ds AND AS LONG AS THE U$D REMAINS THE WORLD RESERVE CURRENCY, DEMAND WILL OUTPACE SUPPLY, AND THE U$D WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AGAINST OTHER CURRENCIES UNTIL A CULMINATION OF DEFAULTS AND RESTRUCTURING RAVAGES THE COUNTRIES WITH THE MOST SEVERE LACK OF U$Ds, SENDING THE U$D SKY HIGH, LEADING TO AN ABANDONMENT OF THE U$D AS WORLD RESERVE CURRENCY. PETER SCHIFF'S VIEW ON THE FUTURE OF THE DOLLAR: ONCE PRODUCTIVE COUNTRIES WORLDWIDE BECOME DISILLUSIONED WITH THE AMOUNT OF EASILY CREATED U$Ds CHASING PRICES, THE APPETITE TO ACCEPT THOSE U$Ds IN EXCHANGE FOR GOODS/SERVICES AT CURRENT PRICES WILL DIMINISH, ALONG WITH THE DESIRE TO HOLD U$Ds, U.S. ASSETS AND U.S. TREASURIES. ONCE U$Ds AND U$Ds OBTAINED THROUGH THE SALE OF U.S. ASSETS AND U.S. TREASURIES ARE SOLD FOR OTHER CURRENCIES, THE U$D WILL WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY, FURTHER INCREASING THE PRICES OF IMPORTED GOODS/SERVICES, SENDING THE U$D INTO AN INFLATIONARY SPIRAL, MARKING ITS END AS THE WORLD RESERVE CURRENCY. IN THIS CASE, IF THE FEDERAL RESERVE MONETIZED THE SOLD U.S. TREASURIES TO PREVENT INTEREST RATES FROM RISING, THIS COULD EASILY LEAD TO HYPERINFLATION. -THE NOTES ON THE CHART REFLECT KEY EVENTS THAT MARKED THE PEAK IN THE U$D's EXCHANGE RATE VS OTHER CURRENCIES
INDEX:DXYEducation
by UnknownUnicorn4195243
PETER SCHIFF VS JEFF SNIDER!THIS POST WILL HELP YOU UNDERSTAND THE COMPETING VIEW POINTS ON THE FUTURE PERFORMANCE OF THE U.S. DOLLAR RELATIVE TO OTHER CURRENCIES! JEFF SNIDER'S POSITION ON THE DOLLAR: THE U.S. DOLLAR IS STRONG BECAUSE OF A SHORTAGE OF DOLLARS WORLDWIDE TO CONDUCT GLOBAL TRADE IN, DUE TO TO FED'S INABILITY TO TRULY SATISFY DEMAND FOR U$Ds, AND WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS LONG AS FOREIGN CURRENCIES ARE SOLD TO BUY U$Ds. PETER SCHIFF'S POSITION ON THE DOLLAR: THE U.S. DOLLAR IS STRONG BECAUSE OF AN IRRATIONAL FAITH IN THE U.S. ECONOMY BY FOREIGNERS AND THE WILLINGNESS OF PRODUCTIVE ECONOMIES WORLDWIDE TO USE AND ACCEPT PRINTED U.S. DOLLARS IN GLOBAL TRADE, SUBSIDIZING THE CONSUMPTION AND TRADE DEFICIT OF THE U.S. JEFF SNIDER'S POSITION ON U.S. TREASURIES: THE U.S. GOVERNMENT BOND MARKET HAS BEEN BID HIGHER FOR DECADES AS U.S. TREASURIES PROVIDE THE SAFEST SOURCE OF U$Ds AND ARE THE MOST ACCEPTED FORM OF COLLATERAL FOR U$D LEVERAGE. IF U$D LIQUIDITY BECOMES CONSTRAINED ENOUGH WORLDWIDE, A SELL-OFF IN THE GLOBAL U.S. TREASURY MARKET CAN OCCUR AS AS THEY ARE SOLD FOR THE IMMEDIATELY NEEDED U$Ds, RAISING INTEREST RATES THROUGHOUT THE FINANCIAL SYSTEM AND THE ECONOMY. PETER SCHFF'S POSITION ON U.S. TREASURIES: THE FEDERAL RESERVE'S ARTIFICIAL SUPPRESSION OF INTEREST RATES SINCE THE 1990's THROUGH QE, COUPLED WITH THE USE OF U$Ds IN GLOBAL TRADE AND THE IRRATIONAL FAITH BY FOREIGNERS THAT THE FEDERAL RESERVE COULD SHRINK ITS BALANCE SHEET AND NORMALIZE INTEREST RATES HAS LED TO FOREIGN CAPITAL BIDDING UP THE PRICE OF U.S. GOVERNMENT BONDS. ONCE THAT FAITH IN THE DOLLAR'S SCARCITY IS DIMINISHED AND PRODUCTIVE ECONOMIES WORLDWIDE REFUSE TO HOLD/ACCEPT U$Ds AND SUBSIDIZE AMERICAN CONSUMPTION, U.S. TREASURIES WILL BE SOLD-OFF, RAISING INTEREST RATES THROUGHOUT THE FINANCIAL SYSTEM AND THE ECONOMY. JEFF SNIDER'S VIEW ON THE FUTURE OF THE DOLLAR: AS LONG AS THE FEDERAL RESERVE FAILS TO ADDRESS THE COMPLEX NEED FOR U$Ds AND AS LONG AS THE U$D REMAINS THE WORLD RESERVE CURRENCY, DEMAND WILL OUTPACE SUPPLY, AND THE U$D WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AGAINST OTHER CURRENCIES UNTIL A CULMINATION OF DEFAULTS AND RESTRUCTURING RAVAGES THE COUNTRIES WITH THE MOST SEVERE LACK OF U$Ds, SENDING THE U$D SKY HIGH, LEADING TO AN ABANDONMENT OF THE U$D AS WORLD RESERVE CURRENCY. PETER SCHIFF'S VIEW ON THE FUTURE OF THE DOLLAR: ONCE PRODUCTIVE COUNTRIES WORLDWIDE BECOME DISILLUSIONED WITH THE AMOUNT OF EASILY CREATED U$Ds CHASING PRICES, THE APPETITE TO ACCEPT THOSE U$Ds IN EXCHANGE FOR GOODS/SERVICES AT CURRENT PRICES WILL DIMINISH, ALONG WITH THE DESIRE TO HOLD U$Ds, U.S. ASSETS AND U.S. TREASURIES. ONCE U$Ds AND U$Ds OBTAINED THROUGH THE SALE OF U.S. ASSETS AND U.S. TREASURIES ARE SOLD FOR OTHER CURRENCIES, THE U$D WILL WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY, FURTHER INCREASING THE PRICES OF IMPORTED GOODS/SERVICES, SENDING THE U$D INTO AN INFLATIONARY SPIRAL, MARKING ITS END AS THE WORLD RESERVE CURRENCY. IN THIS CASE, IF THE FEDERAL RESERVE MONETIZED THE SOLD U.S. TREASURIES TO PREVENT INTEREST RATES FROM RISING, THIS COULD EASILY LEAD TO HYPERINFLATION. -IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT THE 0% YIELD ON U.S. 10 YEAR GOVERNMENT BOND IS A DANGER ZONE IN EITHER CASE, AS FOREIGN ENTITIES WILL NO LONGER HAVE AN INCENTIVE TO HOLD U.S. TREASURIES, PREFERRING CASH, GOLD OR OTHER ASSETS OVER A NEGATIVE YIELDING BOND. -THE NOTES ON THE CHART OFFER CONTRIBUTING FACTORS AS TO WHY YIELDS BOTTOMED OR PEAKED AT VARIOUS POINTS DURING THIS BOND BULL MARKET.
TVC:US10YEducation
by UnknownUnicorn4195243
USD fiat currency & Fed balance sheet parabolic peaks by Nov2023On the left is currency supply and right is the fed balance sheet. Both have similar trajectories to end of Oct 2023. If I had to guess when the collapse of the USD happens, I would have guessed by end of this decade, however now that we can plot MZM (www.investopedia.com) which is the new figure the fed publishes for all monies except CDs/time locked deposits which looks very similar to M1+M2 money supplies. When plotted, we get this parabolic LOG chart of exponential debt/currency creation bubble... The D-day for the USD is end of ~Oct 2023. So far my money is on math and law of exponential growth. If you don't believe this, watch this 2 min video to remind you of what the last few years of this should feel/look like and we may be upon those last few years: www.youtube.com So perhaps maybe we do some sort of digital dollar and revaluation by Nov 2023 on USD and hence break the parabolic ascents? You may ask who cares... well this sets the path of why gold and silver should do phenomenal next 3 years which is exactly how long I would expect the next bull market at a minimum/maximum to last.
FShort
by DropDead_Fed
1
A Future Look at the Dollar - 2020 Blow Off - 2024 CrashYou know what they say, "cash is trash." While that may be true from a long-term investment perspective, I find the dollar to be one of the most important financial tools in an investors tool belt. Having a pulse on the dollar can give you an advanced perspective on all other markets. Since all goods, services, companies, and commodities are priced in dollars, we must continue to be aware of the Dollar Index and it's impact on all things finance. Let's get started. The Dixie is coming up on some crucial overhead resistance form this long term triangle we are in. This means that a downtrend in the value of dollars is coming, probably not until summer or fall of 2020 though. We should continue to see chop in an upward direction as commodities have an increase in volatility, and political and economic uncertainty increase. I believe we will reach some sort of crescendo in mid 2020, as the dollar hits resistance. As the dollar hits resistance, we will likely see a continued loosening of monetary policy from the fed. Precious metals and other commodities will start to really develop strong up trends, and stocks will exacerbate their already extended bull run. While most financial gurus are calling for a catastrophic stock market crash, I'm thinking the opposite. I think there is some gas left in the tank for this bull market. While the fed continues to lower rates, we'll see a lot of money flowing. When 2024 comes, we could potentially see the dollar reaching key support, and the fed funds rate approaching zero like in 2009. The fed will likely have to decide to either keep the dollar as a world reserve currency by increasing interest rates and crashing their own markets. Or, they can kick the can down the road and enter into negative interest rate territory like Europe. I expect them to crash the markets then. Whether you like it or not, the dollar will lead the way, acting as an economic indicator for those in the know. Thanks for reading.
TVC:DXYShort
by micahjmiller
EURUSDJerome Powell is expected to speak this week concerning the Treasury note yield curve. We’re looking to see an aggressive Fed to address the potential global recession, which means quantitative easing and another rate cut. This is a bearish signal for a weak dollar, due to the Fed debasing the currency by increasing dollars in rotation. This could bring in a high-volume price action. An Easier Fed could mean my technical analysis would be inaccurate, and the EUR would push price to the down side.
Short
by JohnAlmighty