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CHFJPY to fallOn weekly timeframe, CHFJPY has reached an overbought zone (RSI), an intersection between upper channel and horizontal support. On lower timeframe, we've seen a big rejection recently, and then a correction upward : here we reach the 80~88% fib levels of the last rejection (D1), with a bearish engulfing pattern yesterday. This behavior can be a potential sell signal. If we follow correlation to compare currencies, we find more confirmation : USDJPY has reached very high levels too fast, becoming overextended, and JPY will probably start a correction soon, meanwhile USDCHF is retesting a daily resistance for the fourth time, giving bullish signals, not yet an overextended move. Goodluck, Joe.
Short
by joe-abdallah
Jumping S-curvesIn this post, I will explain what jumping S-curves means and how you can identify potential S-curves before they jump . First, let's begin with the chart above (also copied below). This is a yearly chart of McKesson Corporation (MCK), a medical supplies company. As you can see in the chart below, this stock has been soaring over the past year despite most other stocks being significantly lower. Here is the performance of the S&P 500 over the same time period. Whenever I see something highly unusual in a chart, such as extreme outperformance, I check the higher timeframes to see what's driving price on a technical level. Below is the yearly chart for MCK. When I examine price action over a long time period, I always log adjust my chart. Below is the log-adjusted chart. Upon seeing this chart I immediately knew what was going on: the stock price jumped S-curves. I will try to illustrate below how I reached this conclusion. To begin, I drew Fibonacci levels from the last reaction low to the last reaction high on the yearly timeframe. The previous reaction low was the bottom of 2008 because that bottom was a Fibonacci retracement of some earlier reaction high, the reaction high is the top in 2015 because price did not surpass that high without first undergoing a Fibonacci retracement (to the golden ratio). As you can see above, from 2015 to 2018 the price retraced down to the golden ratio (0.618) on the yearly chart. It is often from this retracement level that the base of the second S-curve is created. (For simplicity, I only included the 0.618 Fibonacci level on the chart). Some may say that this pattern is merely a bull flag or pennant. (See chart below) Indeed, bull flags and pennants can be another way to visualize S-curve jumps. Whereas, on a deeper, more mathematical level, S-curve jumps are logarithmic spirals (approximated as Fibonacci spirals or Golden spirals). If you wish to delve deeper into logarithmic spirals, including the Golden spiral, you can check out this Wikipedia page: en.wikipedia.org These Fibonacci or Golden spirals are present on mostly every chart and they appear on mostly every timeframe (hence they are fractal ). One of the best charts you can use to visualize these spirals is the chart of Bitcoin. Below are charts of Bitcoin which attempt to show the endless fractal nature of Fibonacci spirals (or "S-curve jumps"). I've only illustrated a few of the spirals, but indeed there are numerous spirals. (I tried to do my best using the tools on Trading View to draw these spirals, but it can be quite hard to manipulate the curves perfectly to price action.) One may ask what about when price falls? That is obviously not an S-curve jump since the price is falling. Actually, when price is crashing it is usually just an S-curve jump, or Fibonacci spiral, on the inverted chart. Although I have not tested it with scientific rigor, I do hypothesize that Bitcoin's price movement is a series of infinitely fractal and competing Fibonacci spirals on various timeframes, including Fibonacci spirals on inverted scales. Price movement can be thought of as an infinite series of S-curve dilemmas where infinitely fractal S-curves, including those of which are inverse S-curves, compete to govern the next price move. Each dilemma is resolved when an S-curve reaches its inflection point, such that it governs price movement and price moves rapidly in that direction until it approaches capacity and faces its next dilemma. Those who know Calculus may recognize this chart. Indeed this is the graph of a logistic function. The mathematical terminology for an "S-curve" is sigmoid function . Here are some more interesting charts of S-curves (none of which is intended to be investment advice) Meridian Bioscience (VIVO) jumps S-curves on its yearly chart The U.S. Dollar Index jumps S-curves on its yearly chart The entire price action of Chinese EV Company (NIO) is an S-curve that just completed a perfect golden ratio retracement Japan's faces a population S-curve dilemma Citigroup underwent S-curve growth up until the Great Recession. Then it crashed or underwent S-curve growth on the inverted chart. In summary, price movement involves an endless series of S-curves or Fibonacci spirals. Identifying an S-curve on a high time frame before it reaches its inflection point and breaks out can lead to tremendous gains (among the most lucrative gains one can realistically make in the financial markets).
Editors' picks
NYSE:MCKEducation
by SpyMasterTrades
22
SPY heading into a key level on long time frameSPY on the weekly chart is obviously in a long downtrend. Using the up trend from the Covid Crash to all-time highs the first week of January and then a retracement, price is presently between the 0.382 and 0.5 Fibonacci levels for the past two weeks with big range downward momentum candles seen. The Mass Index is in mid-range while on the MACD indicator the blue MACD is crossing down on the red signal line and both are below the histogram. On this long-range analysis , SPY is in an established downtrend without anything to suggest a reversal. However, anything can happen to improve the macro outlook so I am watching for a reversal if/when SPY approaches the Fib 0.5 / 349.8. I am expecting however to see continuation down targetting at first the lower Fib level. s
AMEX:SPY
by AwesomeAvani
FibonacciHello, Let us talk about 'Fibonacci.' On this chart: You will read about where it came from? Why do we use it, and where does it help us. Before we dive in to talk about Fibonacci Retracement levels and their use in trading, Let us talk about the origin of Fibonacci : It all started with rabbits. Yes, Rabbits! Fibonacci became interested in a strange issue in 1202. He wanted to know the outcome if he had a pair of male and female rabbits and defined behavior for their offspring. The assumptions were as follows: We have a pair of male and female rabbits that have just been born. Rabbits mature after one month. The gestation period of rabbits is one month. When a female rabbit reaches puberty, she must become pregnant. At each pregnancy, the female rabbit gives birth to one male rabbit and one female rabbit. Rabbits never die. Calculate how many pairs of this type of rabbit we will have after n months? In mathematics, the Fibonacci sequence or series is the following infinite sequence of natural numbers: 0,1,1,2,3,5,8,13,21,34,55,89,144,233,377,610,987,1597,... Take a look at this GIF, to get an idea of this infinite sequence: drive.google.com The Fibonacci spiral: an estimate of the golden spiral generated by drawing circular arcs attaching the facing corners of the squares adjusted to the values ​​of the sequence; by successively attaching squares of side 0, 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21 and 34. The sequence begins with the numbers 0 and 1; "each term is the total of the past two" is the recurrence relation that defines it. The elements of this sequence are called Fibonacci children. Leonardo de Pisa described this sequence in Europe, a 13th-century Italian mathematician also known as Fibonacci. It has numerous applications in computer science, mathematics, and game theory. It also appears in biological configurations, such as in the branches of trees, in the arrangement of leaves on the stem, in the flowers of artichokes and sunflowers, in the inflorescences of Romanesco broccoli, in the configuration of coniferous conifers. In the reproduction of rabbits and in how DNA encodes the growth of complex organic forms. Similarly, it is found in the spiral structure of the shell of some mollusks, such as the nautilus. Leonardo Pisano, Leonardo de Pisa, or Leonardo Bigollo, also known as Fibonacci, was born in 1170 and died in 1240. Long before being known in the West, the Fibonacci sequence was already described in mathematics in India in connection with the Sanskrit prosody. Susantha Goonatilake notes that the development of the Fibonacci sequence "is attributed in part to Pingala (year 200), later associated with Virahanka (about 700), Gopāla (about 1135) and Hemachandra (about 1150)". Parmanand Singh cites Pingala (around 450) as a forerunner in the discovery of the sequence. Now let us talk about Fibonacci in the finance world. You might use it too, as Fibonacci Retracement Levels. (As you see on the chart) The second law of technical analysis indicates that values move in trends, bullish or bearish. Once a trend has given sufficient signs of termination, either by breaking its trend line, confirmation of a trend reversal figure or any other valid factor according to technical analysis theory, the analyst contemplates the possibility of a setback. A pullback represents, in simple terms, a move in the opposite direction to the past trend. It can take the form of a crash in price after a bullish move or a rebound in price after a downtrend. Although the first could properly be called a retracement and the second rebound or rally, technically, the term retracement includes both. Within technical analysis, Fibonacci retracements refer to the possibility that the price of a financial asset will retrace a considerable portion of the original movement and find support or resistance levels at the levels set by the Fibonacci numbers before continuing. The above address. These levels are constructed by drawing a trend line between the extreme points of the movement in question and applying the critical percentages of 23%, 38.2%, 61.8%, 76.8%, and 100% to the vertical distance. Fibonacci retracements are used to confirm suspicions of a market movement. Levels of support and resistance can indicate possible bullish or bearish market trends and indicate to people when is the best time to open long or short positions. This means that Fibonacci retracements can be highly fulfilling for people who know when to use them correctly. Upon confirmation of rejection in the price, we will try to calculate the probable magnitude of the movement. In order to achieve this, specific percentages collected from the Fibonacci series are applied to the total magnitude of the previous trend. The percentages used are as follows: 61.8%: Also recognized as the Golden Ratio, or golden number, it is the limit of the result obtained from the division of an element of the Fibonacci series by the following number, as the series tends to infinity. 38.2%: It is obtained by subtracting 61.8% from the unit (1.000 - 0.618) 100.%: Equivalent to the total magnitude of the primary trend. Reversal percentages should be calculated after the end of a trend has been confirmed, never while the trend continues. Considering that trends are always part of a longer-term trend and, in turn, are made up of shorter-term trends, the question on which of these trends should be calculated as setbacks? There might not be a simple answer. We must calculate the setbacks on that trend that has given clear signs of termination in general terms. A weak trend may have a 31.8% retracement, while a powerful trend may have a 61.8% retracement before returning to its original direction. Some sources mention a critical zone of 33 to 38.2% and 61.8 to 67% instead of specific levels. Fibonacci retracements form an essential part of the Elliott Wave Theory. The most scathing criticisms against Fibonacci retracements are based on the random walk theory, arguing that there is no justification for assuming that price action has any reason to respect predetermined retracement levels. However, it is not suitable to use Fibonacci retracement all the time. There are a few downsides too: Fibonacci retracement shows only static price levels. It is unlikely to say that a specific cryptocurrency price will not pass or stay below predicted levels. Many external factors determine the price of a coin. They have to be taken into account when determining trading decisions. Fibonacci retracement levels are close to each other, so it is challenging for a professional trader to determine the accuracy from which to predict the value of a particular coin in the future. Suppose you're interested in using this great indicator. In that case, you can simply go on your TradingView chart and the dashboard, click on 'Indicators & Strategies' and search for Fibonacci and find the best one suited for you. Have you ever used this indicator? What do you think the pros and cons are? Let me know your ideas. Good luck.
Education
by ShawnMCR
19
Ethereum support 1460 and 0.5 FibSupport at 1460 or 0/5 fib start from the June strait of the price down and is a strong level. If the support is broken, then the next target is 1280-1340 or 0.61 fib confuses only one moment If you look at the chart of eth / btc, the target for eth against bitcoin is 0.68 and 0.63, which is 0.5 and 0.61 fib. And whether it will be through the fall of the ether, as it was yesterday by 10% against bitcoin, or bitcoin will finally start to grow faster than the rest of the market, time will tell Long is still in priority So far, we keep a positive view on the situation and expect it below 1000 not earlier than December.
by Atomic-Green
Has inflation really peaked? Not so sureWe have been inside this green triangle since 1915. The downtrend line has been tested a few times and this is the first year it actually went past it and recently came down for a retest. Hard to feel like inflation has peaked also considering oil is still in an uptrend and the Fed couldn't have been more hawkish in the last Powell's speech, so we may be up for a rough surprise in tomorrow's CPI report. The Fib retracement points at a possible 12.50-13.00% inflation read, let's see what we get.
ECONOMICS:USIRYYLong
by NightCommando
ADA Long Trade with Video ExplanationThis is just a cleaned up chart from my analysis HERE. Trade logic summary: Cardano has been holding this ~$0.40 range for the past four months or so while making lower highs creating what appears to me to be a triangle. Using the triangle to estimate a time horizon for this trade, I'd expect a break out in one direction or another by the end of November. The strength of that breakout will also be telling, but we'll review that data as it comes. The Trade Time Frame is 2-6 months Entry is at $0.5223 Stop-loss is approx 20% below my entry. I do not have a hard stop-order set, but I do have alerts set on the way down to that region as I am actively managing this trade. Target is open as this is a long position, though I will likely take some profit at the $0.75 range (alerts set in that region as well) Sizing For this trade I used roughly 20% of my cash available to trade, which is about 12% of my trading portfolio tied up in this trade over the next few months. Risk With a floating stop at around 20% below my entry, loss would result in about a 4% loss of cash available to trade and about a 2.4% loss of my current portfolio balance. Profit If long plays out and initial target of $0.75 is reached, that would result in about a 45% gain on trade , a 9% increase of cash available to trade , and 5.4% increase of current portfolio balance . I'll try to be sure to update this post as we move forward. If anyone follows this trade, feel free to follow up in the future. Thanks for reading!
Long
by spreck
2
👻 $DXY $BTC Divergence [What's up with $EURX and $CRO?]Usually when $DXY tanks, $BTC and other investment assets rise, but today is again diverging from the norm (2 or 3 time in the past days). What explains it? Perhaps the fact that $EUR is 🔺 up? A rebalancing of the currency books, perhaps? Or we're setting up for a fake out in during US open. Where are my currency experts at? The market seems to expect more dovish announcements during the upcoming Jacksonhole FED event; my take based on Chair Powell's speech in June is that we could indeed expect rather a 100bp hike (very hawkish) or at least 75bp, again like last time. The doves are hoping for a 50bp hike. If we get 50bp, does it feel like the market will be ready for a rally? I stopped out of the majority of my $cro short around .13. Looking to add more back in some more if we dump through the .1285 - .13 range and retrace back to these levels. I expect 20750 to be an important stopping point for BTC and opportunity for quick long scalp for a few points if the dumpiness continues during the EU trading session, as I would expect the US brinks to put a little long pressure on before it shows it's true intention for the day to either continue the $dxy dump and move into longing other asset prices, or to reverse and really dump the markets at market open. Summary, SHORT. My analysis still isn't solid and clear; but i'm hoping you're following along and interested anyway. Comments, suggestions, questions welcome! GL out there!
FTX:CROUSDShort
by calmrat
Real gold is not afraid of the melting pot! Gold Weekly :)Hello fellow gold traders! ive been busy (not to say lazy) lately and did not publish, im gonna go abit hyperactive and make up for my absence ;) lets start where it should start and take a look at weekly, as you can see price hit the ATH of 2070 which was for a long time out of reach. and as expected, the volume on that candle equals the sum of all the volumes that came before, signalling a more than probable fall. things cant always go up , right ? ;) Now we take a look at that falling side in more details to have a chance of seeing where it might go.... first falling algo, as you can see, correted to its 0.618 fib at around 1999 and then went staright to the first algo target at 1849 and then to the second at 1786. too perfect right ? next algo could not correct for more than fib level 0.45 as the hope for any new ath disappeared and was replaced by the fear. and then went down to first target 1739 but abit short of second target at 1666( fib level -0.618) the move stopped suddenly at only 55%, which is a well known historic support since APril 2020.we will see this level in more details later on.(yeah , lets make this idea 100 page long! XD ) third move was more classic, going to golden zone 0.618-0.65 fib level at 1800-1807 and then head diving, reviving the hope for bears now having targets at 1636 and 1568 (fib levels -0.236 and -0.618) but we have the historic level of support at 1680 blocking the bears target. this level has been tested 4 times, which lets us wonder what will happen in 5th try.... adding some fork might be of some help in this golden mess ;) well, downward as we imagined, and under the median, which suggests going for the next parallel probably. and that second target at -0.618 fib seems to have structural influence too as you can see: this area has been an important zone in past price reactions too if you move back in chart all that together, the probability of moving for the unbelievable , out of reach flashy target at 1555 ...ish increases alot! which could complete a nice ABC (Bear with me XD im new to EW! :P ) adding the weekly rising fib from 1046 to 2070 adds the confluence of fib level 0.45 , which is a common failure to reach the desired 0.5 level, in this zone too. we have enough confluence at that zone to be able to consider it as a probable target while still keeping an eye on that 1680 lulti wick zone. And keeping in mind that its gold, as capricious as any other golden creature we know ;) Wishing you all the best of the best in everything.....and in trading! Onviously not a financial advice, do i look like your banker ? XD Have a great sunday....and always pass a wink to your left ;)
FXOPEN:XAUUSDShort
by BijouBaby
14
bittyinteresting point here--- the cap or volume is at 25 billion does that mean a bullish movement is about to take place has the market found a cushion or pillow to rest on---and were going towards an upward trend----because you know we had a downturn the last 9 months can bulls and bears manage to work together to a new high--- or will bulls fail. is the bear season over----- I believe so. hoping for 23 months and 1 week of bullish charts at bare minimum---there will be 2-3 weeks at a time that will or could be bearish. but for the majority its bullish for 23 months and 1 week at minimum.
CRYPTOCAP:BTCLong
by mooncrest-holdings-ltd