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GBPUSD: The Week Ahead (Day 5)On Thursday the GBPUSD broke a very important structure level around the 1.58 even handle. Since that moment I had to redo my I.P.D.E. and shift my focus from a potential short at that area, to a potential long to hop on the underlying trend. In yesterday’s update I told you guys that I was looking for a retracement and you know what it looks like we’ve got one, or are in the process of getting one. I initially thought we had a Bat pattern completion setting up but our “B” leg comes in a little too deep. So shifting back to harmonics and structure an AB=CD pattern would put us right at our previous outside return, which lines up right with that structure level that was broken earlier in the week. We have a minor Fibonacci retracement down there as well (for those using the CTS) but the main thing is structure at that key level. Could be a demand zone as well for those who are into that. Technically the “A-Kill” zone starts a little bit higher at the 1.5850’s levels, but I think the lower level will provide the least amount of risk. Either way if you’re a trend following trader and believe that this market is going to continue bullish then both levels would be buying at a bargain price. Hope you guys enjoyed this week of walking through a single chart. My question for you guys is next week would you like me to continue with this same pair, or pick something different? Please let me know and if there’s a pair you have in mind shoot me those ideas and I’ll pick one over the weekend. Have a great end of the week, and if you missed my ideas on USDCAD, GBPAUD and the Short Film that I shared representing the everyday battle that is trading. Make sure you check out my latest trading video. www.youtube.com Until next week traders, Plan Your Trade, Trade Your Plan and have a fantastic weekend! Akil Stokes Chief Currency Analyst at www.TradeEmpowered.com
Long
by Akil_Stokes
17
GBPUSD: The Week Ahead (Day 4)Yesterday’s news gave us a lot of continued strength in the GBP blowing right past previous structure without a pause it seems. So the question is what’s next? Well going off of the basic price action principles of higher high, higher close, I’m expecting the bullish move to continue. The next stopping point that I have on my radar is around 1.6200 even handle where we have a cluster of Fibonacci extensions, retracements & inversions along with some minor structure (looking far left). Technically the “killzone” is a lot wider than that, but that would be the first area that would cause me to place close attention. Our harmonic move (ab=cd) is towards the higher end of that zone, but if you look left on the screen or zoom out to the weekly, you’ll see we have some pretty decent previous structure throughout Although we’re still a few hundred pips away from that level it’s important that I make that prediction as it’s part of the Identify, Predict, Decide, Execute (IPDE) process that I go through when evaluating every price chart. Now that I’ve predicted where I think the market is going, the next question that I want to ask myself is “how is the market going to get there?” Well, there are two ways, 1) we’ll shoot straight up, or 2) the market will show some relief and we’ll get a retracement back into previous structure. IF the market retraces THEN I’ll be looking for opportunities to hop on the bullish move. I appreciate all of the kind feedback on this “Weekly Follow” idea that I’ve been trying out this week. It’s been pretty fun to do, and we all need some fun in this stressful field we work in. I’ll see many of you guys in my Live Room in an hour or so, and for the rest of you, it’s Thursday, so that means be on the lookout for my weekly “Weekend Review” video www.youtube.com Akil Stokes Chief Currency Analyst at www.tradeempowered.com
Long
by Akil_Stokes
45
A (new?) personal strategy for using elliot waves NZD shortDISCLAIMER: This strategy has been developed solely by myself, any resemblance to what ever system out there will be a mere coincidence. Guys I am sharing this strategy with you (developed last night after recognizing the repetitive patterns on the stochs) and don't want any thing in return expect recognition. IF it proves to be useful in the future please do drop my name (spent a sleepless night working on it after all). I'd rather give something of value to others than act all greedy and super secretive about something which may actually work. We don't get to take the money to our graves. Please don't trade for money. If you do, you won't get this one anyway. :P Cheers Hamza So let's get to business: The strategy is amazingly simple. It utilizes the K line of (standard settings) Stochastics indicator. What you basically do is to try and recognize impulses/versus corrections using the K line movements. You should have at least a basic knowledge of Elliot Wave Theory in order to use it effectively. You have to "analyse" a whole set of data of stochastics in order to be able to make predictions about the future. Bear in mind that I have developed this specific strategy for the weekly chart. It may not be effective on other time intervals. I did my best to clarify my logic into dividing the waves by using different colours for the trend lines which I have drawn (on the indicator's window): Green trend line (within the red rectangle) indicates the start of an upwards impulse (be it a major or minor one) Red trend line (within the red rectangle) indicates the start of a downwards impulse ( be it a major or minor one) The green rectangle has multiple "tops" of the stochs and is a strong indicator for upwards impulsive waves The red rectangle has multiple "bottoms" of the stochs and is a strong indicator for downwards impulsive waves The black trend line is used to indicate a period of correction (be it to the upside or the downside) The purple trend line is used to indicate fluctuations of stochs WITHIN impulsive moves Counting Elliot waves can be quiet difficult, especially for starting traders (myself included). Hopefully this will help. it goes without saying that you need other analytical analysis tools in order to make a comprehensive study and (accurate) predictions (please manage your risks). If you have any questions, please don't hesitate to ask me. Now back to NZDUSD, according to my EW count, this pair still has a lot of room to the downside. Rationale behind the setup is shown on the chart along with specific target and stop loss. If get your counts right you can get a much better risk/reward ratio than the conservative one which I have chosen. Best of luck.
Short
by NQunlocked
9
NZDUSD: Measuring the Pullback for a Structure based ShortWe placed NZDUSD on our radar during yesterday's Live Room session and have been tracking it ever since. I apologize in advance, but the analysis that I did on this pair is somewhat advanced so I'm not going to attempt to duplicate what I shared with you in last night's Syndicate video. Honestly speaking it's a lot clearer on the 13 period range bar charts (as you can see in the link attached at the bottom). Following the I.P.D.E. process that I shared with you guys on Monday, I've come to the conclusion that until shown otherwise, i want to get short Kiwi. The difficult part was determining where. Initially I had 3 killzones (with in the larger potential reversal zone) that sparked my interest but as this pair ebbs and flows, i'm starting to get a clearer idea of which zone is the one I want to keep my eye on and execute the trade if given the opportunity. To determine my killzones I've used a combination of Fibonacci retracements, extensions, inversions and harmonic moves. I say given the opportunity because, having price action enter the zone or level isn't enough. I still need to find a reason for entry and I won't know if or when that will happen until we get there. For now all I can do is wait, watch and be ready to pull the trigger if it does. Good luck in the markets today traders! tradeempowered.com
Short
by Akil_Stokes
28
Bitcoin: 3 Bearish Opportunities approachingI got asked the other day about Bitcoin and what I thought about recent price action. When looking at the timeframe all that comes to mind is consolidation and bearish. As we've seen on the AUDCAD over the past few weeks (as it's nailed 4 straight cyphers) consolidation breeds patterns. I see 2 potential patterns here on BTCUSD the first being a bearish bat (yellow) and the second being a bearish cypher (red) Stops for the bat pattern will be well before the cypher completion so there's no need to worry about choosing one over the other. Before both of those potential patterns we also have a CTS based trading opportunity at the bat pattern "B" leg. At that level I'm seeing a potential ABCD completion, the RSI is already overbought, there's structure looking left and we have some fibonacci confluence. So not a bad opportunity. Waiting for a conservative reason for entry would make it an even better opportunity for you lower timeframe traders. If you're interested in watching me trade live I've opened up access to my live trading room for today. 8am-11am New York Time. Just shoot me an email before 7:45am NY time and I'll get you the login information Akil Akil@Tradeempowered.com
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Akil_Stokes
2
GBPAUD: BULLISH GARTLEY PATTERN @ 1.9338Hey gang! A we've been waiting for some bigger moves on this pair for a while now but have seen nothing but sideways action. Fortunately for pattern traders sideways action isn't always a bad thing as consolidation breeds pattern opportunities. The pattern we have on this pair is going to be a bullish Gartley pattern completing down at the 1.9328s level. Minimum stops should be 10pips below the X leg, but in my professional opinion (I don't use the 10pips rule) it's probably worth risking a few more pips to give yourself the safety of being below the even handle seeing how these psychological numbers often act very similar to structure. Although we have the bigger pattern on the horizon, i wouldn't assume that it's going to complete and would have no reason to get fancy with extended targets or trailing stops for bigger gains. We still haven't broken previous resistance (Bigger B leg) therefore structurally I have no reason to think continuation. For a look at last week's rollercoaster of a ride in the markets please check out my latest blog post "Trading Recap Week 17: Self Evaluation" Good luck this week traders!!! tradeempowered.com Akil Stokes Chief Currency Analyst www.TradeEmpowered.com
Long
by Akil_Stokes
21