US30 : Butterfly Harmonic PatternCURRENCYCOM:US30
As you can see , beautiful , Butterfly harmonic pattern is done
It's a bearish pattern , Market now after completion of D leg , now intent to do a 38.2 % retracement
it's a pattern with 70 % accuracy , market now in overbought position
you can take your short trades and target for 33205 area
Trade properly with risk management , don't try to overtrade or do revenge trade
Patience is key in this field , you should have steel nerves
risk reward ratio 1;2 or 1;3 is ideal in intraday trading
Fibextensions
BTCUSDT - Bullish Bias Based on FibsBullish bias to the upside based on Fibs.
1st Impulse Fib retracement from Impulse low to high gave a breakout from 0.382. With a Fib extension 1:1 upside target of 24.1K.
2nd and current impulse Fib retracement from Impulse low to high giving a current possible breakout from 0.382. With a Fib extension 1:1 upside target of 28K.
Also worth noting is swing low fib from 1st breakout to last pivot high gives us a bullish fib of 0.618, current price.
Speculative and should be used with unbiased trade with risk management as always. Loosing 0.382 at 21.6K may be a signal for more downside to come.
Nifty Analysis: A Bullish Scenario 🚀Hi 👋
There are always two potentially predominant scenarios possible in the stock market – Bullish and Bearish . Most people involved in the stock market like to read and appreciate the positive side of the market, that is bullish . This is because they always ‘Buy’ and never sell. They don't even sell to take profit 😉
This idea is representing the bullish scenario of the market. I have used minimal tools – Support and Resistance ; Fib Time Zones; Fib Extensions and a self-developed technique to weigh weaker and stronger sides (bulls & bears) of the market.
Let is discuss them one by one 👇
🚀 Fib Time Zones
Fib zones are helpful in analyzing market cycles but in my experience fib zones have always been a hit and miss experiment, as there is no concrete way in which fib zones can perfectly match the market cycles. Theoretically we match previous highs to project the next peek or we match previous lows to project the next trough in a market cycle.
On this chart I matched the highs of Feb 2021 and Oct 2021 and found that it perfectly projected June 2022 low (marked by Fib zone 3). If this projection is correct and continues then there could be a high (I am saying ‘high’ because we are discussing bullish scenario) near Mid Feb 2023 (Marked as Fib zone 4). This may hold true as long as market trades and sustains above all-time highs.
🚀 Support and Resistance
When I say all-time highs (ATH), it means 18600 ( ish ) levels. Normally these levels stand as strong resistance, because sellers get active taking profits or shorting near those levels. As of now those levels have not been tested by Nifty (spot).
Secondly, there was 18100 level which acted as strong resistance in Apr 2022 and Sep 2022. However, the reaction in Sep was much less compared to the reaction in Apr , which is good for bulls. In Nov, market breakout of this resistance and also tested it once in the later half of Nov.
The test was held, means buyers had an upper hand, and previous resistance (18100) acted as support. Eventually, market resumed the trend established from Jun 2022 lows.
I would personally like to see the market break and sustain above ATH (18600 or so) for it to achieve our projected targets.
🚀 Fib Extension
Fib extension is an effective tool to project markets next move or targets. There are different methods used by different traders or investors or mentioned by different authors in their writeups. Most popular ones being 1:1 extension, 1:2 extension and the ones that conform to the Elliot wave principles.
Measured move:
If I measure the move from Jun low to Sep high and project it for a 1:1 target, it gives us 19650 as the target. This can be taken as a medium-term bullish target for the market.
Elliot:
According to Elliot , 3rd wave can not be the smallest. If I take move from Jun to Sep 2022 as wave1 and late Sep correction as wave 2 then wave3 should be larger than wave1, that means beyond 19650.
Wave3 extension can go up to (1.618 x wave1) or higher. If I take 1.618 extension then wave 3 targets for 21450 (quite ambitious though). We can take it as a longer-term target for investors.
Cup & Handle
Thirdly, if you look carefully there is a cup and handle continuation pattern. This can be made by joining Apr high, Jun low, Sep high and Sep low. The blue Support and Resistance line shown on the chart would be the neckline for this pattern (and is breached positively). The target for this pattern comes out to be = 18114 + 15183 = 21045.
This gives us a zone from 21000 to 21500 as a target for long term investors.
Will the market hit the long-term target on Mid-Feb 2023 Fib zone? Or will it hit the short-term target 19650 at that time? This question should remain open for discussion in the comment section.
🚀 (Bravo) Momentum Technique
There is nothing much fancy in this technique than the Price and Time based analysis. I analyze price waves through the lens of time to measure momentum of the market.
Technical charts are drawn by taking Time on X-axis and Price on Y-axis and this helps in tracking the price moves. I take help of these price moves in identifying bullish and bearish trends.
As a general rule of thumb if the price is taking less time recovering a bearish move then there is bullish momentum. This means bulls are still stronger than bears. The opposite is also true. If price is taking more time to recover a corrective wave then bulls might soon lose ground.
To make it simple, I have drawn red and green rectangles. The red rectangles encase bearish waves and the green ones encase bullish waves. There are two important things that you need to observe – height and width of the rectangles.
Normally height of two adjacent rectangles ( bearish and bullish recovery waves) would be the same. So, it the width that is more important. The width represents the number of days the market takes to complete a wave.
As long as the width of green rectangles is less than red ones, the momentum would be bullish . Normally we see bullish momentum in an uptrend, so there are greater chances that the trend would stay on the upside.
The opposite is true in case of downtrend.
You can see in the chart that although the market was making lower lows from Oct2021 to Jun2022, the width of green rectangles is less compared to red ones. Or you can say that market had been taking lesser number of sessions to recover a down move. This means that bulls were more active and were interested in accumulation at the lower levels (see number of sessions/bars under each rectangle ).
This signals a positive momentum in an uptrend and hence higher chances of the trend to resume.
This method is useful for investors as well as traders. Investors can apply it on higher timeframes and traders on a lower-timeframes, for analyzing, confirming and riding trends.
I hope you learnt something new from this post.
Now do me a favor and hit 🚀 so that I can push myself to write more.
Your thoughts are welcomed in the comment section 👇
Have a great life 👍
📢 Disclaimer: The views are personal and for educational purpose only. It should not be considered as an investment or trading advice. Please apply your own due diligence before investing your hard earned money.
DAX Long Setup - Are The Bulls Back? I am looking at trading the DAX today on the 4-hour time frame.
Yesterday, we saw a major drop from the top of the daily resistance level. Price dropped around 2.5%.
As we are still trending upwards and making higher highs and higher lows, we are now looking for an opportunity to go long.
I have been testing a new strategy involving Bolinger bands, a fib retracement which I use to find my entry, and a fib extension which I use to find my targets. This might be a great time to test it out in a live market.
THE LONG SETUP
I like to wait for the price to pierce the bottom of the Bollinger bands. Once I see that price has pierced it, I then look for some sort of reversal candle. Something like a DOJI candle. If I see this, I then wait for the next candle to be a bullish engulfing candle, confirming that bulls are indeed buying in this area.
Once this 4-hour engulfing candle closes, I throw on the fib retracement tool from the bottom of the engulfing candle to the top. I wait for the price to retrace back to the 0.236 level. This will become my entry zone. Once the price retraces to this level, this is where I will go long. I then put on the fib extension tool.
This tool has three clicks. The first click is at the bottom of the engulfing candle, the second click is at the top of the engulfing candle. The third and last click is just a horizontal extension of the second click moved out to the right so we can see the levels.
Now normally, these two levels that appear on the chart can be used for two possible targets. However, I like to use the middle Bollinger band as a guide for a target as well as the top of the Bolinger bands. But, we need to get a minimum of a one to two risk to reward. If the top level coincides with the 1.618 fib level, then that’s perfect confluence.
I normally place my stop a few pips below the bottom of the engulfing candle.
Now, I do not like pin-pointing bottoms. This is why this strategy needs to be trend following. The engulfing candle helps confirm that the bulls are still intact. I would also like to see the engulfing candle close above the yellow resistance zone, although it doesn’t have to. However, if it does, this will show even further confluence to this setup.
As I write this, the current 4-hour candle has around 50 minutes left until it closes.
Let's watch and see what happens with this.
Hope you all have a good Thursday.
See you all on the next one.
The Vortex Trader.
JASMY: Elliot Wave Theory Confirmation Chart
This 1-day chart shows the Elliot Wave Theory with Fibonacci Extension Levels as well as charted support and resistance lines.
March 8th, 2022 to March 19th, 2022 represents the first motive wave in the Elliot Wave Theory.
March 19th, 2022 to April 18th 2022 represents the second motive wave
Utilizing Bollinger Bands I recorded a breakout over the 20 day moving average starting from the price .0173 to .0260.
This breakout is supported by continued strength of the RSI indicator on the 1-day chart as well as a convergence of the 4-hour chart on the MACD indicator.
I believe this breakout over the 20 day moving average, with the support of its strong RSI and MACD convergence, is a clear indication of the beginning of the third wave of the Elliot Wave Theory.
The first and second waves of the Elliot Wave Theory have been legitimized by the clear Impulse sub waves located from prices .0104 to .0264(first wave) and then from .0446 to .0172(second wave). I didn't chart it because I got lazy lol but they're there.
My entry point was .0263 and my exit point will be determined upon completion of third wave.
Fib Extension Levels are colored grey on this chart.
Support and resistance levels are colored yellow.
Elliot Wave Theory Waves are colored pink.
P.s. This is my first official chart so if you guys have anything to say I'm all ears. I'd love some feedback and constructive criticism if you guys or gals have some advice.
Thanks for reading-Jack19992
NEOUSDT & NEOBTC GANN Hello traders,,,
Today I will show you my idea about NEOBTC& NEOUSDT
NEOBTC is now having a Gann trend support and it is really important that NEOBTC stays above this resistance or we might go back to old prices, if new could stay above this support (2 daily close)
we might go to 0.000577 then 0.000599 and last target is 0.000682
If this scenario happened this will affect at NEOUSDT because if NEO get bullish versus BTC ,, NEOUSDT will go bullish too
so if NEOBTC go bullish our target at NEOUSDT 25.39 then 27.2 and our last target is 28.69 :)
NEOUSDT is now having a golden resistance (0.618) using fib extension if NEOUSDT could break this resistance with good volume we might see our targets
and now for RSI in both charts there is NO DIVERNGES that mean that our ascending channel is not strong enough to make the price go bearish BUT IT COULD HAPPEND IF WE NEO DOES NOT BREAK RESISCTANCE
Conclusion:
If NEOBTC get bullish NEOUSDT is likely to have the same.
This analysis has done by using Gann methods and Fib extension and RSI indicator & chart pattern
if you have any other opinion please feal free to share it in the comments below ,,,,,
Remember in this oscillatory market try to enter with volume
Have a nice day :))
3 White Soldiers off 0.618 Retrace Going for 1.618 ExtensionAPE Coin looks like it's potentially going for a major Fibonacci Extension from here after Double Bottoming at the 61.8% Retracement and forming a 3 white soldiers on the daily the next move one could expect is a 1.618 Extension though I may want to take some profits at the 1.272 just to be safe.
ALGOThinking ALGO ran The Fib extension gambit here all the way to $3 back in Aug 2021. (luckily some of our members took part in this move as I alerted the buy around $1 I think back in July 1 month prior) since then Algo stays inside 1 brutal correction and I'D say .53c gets tested B4 we can resume the run. But the wick to .67c bottom channel TL does show massive support.
So kinda hard to call here, but if my BTC analysis is correct in projecting BTC double bottom after we finish this B wave then ALGO will likely hit my lower bearish targets. If my BTC analysis is incorrect then likely ALGO has bottomed. Let's keep an eye on this.
omgI think OMG has what we call an Irregular top pattern in EW. This is when the 5th wave finishes & the ABC correction starts but wave A is very shallow , fails to correct the 5 up. This leads to the B wave extending higher than the 5th wave & then the final C wave moves to correct from the top of wave B. I also think we had a classic 1-2, 12345 wave extension which usually shows wave 3 reaching the 1.618% fib extension B4 rolling over into wave 4 which is shown nicely in the chart as well. But all this considered I'D say that bottoms likely in or maybe a double bottom is coming..
Bitcoin DirectionThe chart pretty much speaks for itself. It goes back to inception, with a focus on the last halving cycle and this one. Relatively convincing fib extensions have the 0.618 from last bull cycle hitting the bottom of the most recent bear market. This trend has existed every cycle since inception. The 0.618 fib extension of a bull run is the bottom of the next bear market. The current cycle has the top fib extension around 154K, with the 0.236, 0.618 and 1.618 at the exact support/resistance zones we are seeing; with that fib extension top touching the logarithmic curve that has passed through the peaks of the previous cycles.
Each cycle has grown slightly in length; with the projected peak of this bull run ending around Q2 2022. This time elapsed to market tops is calculated from the algebraic interpolation of the lengthening of previous cycles.
Things to watch out for are support at level 50 for longer time frame RSI values. Another item of concern is the very large bearish divergence occurring in the RSI at longer time frames, which has not happened previous cycles. Conversely, these low RSI values relative to the current price indicates that there is a lot of room for RSI to grow; ie we are not constrained in upwards price action by an already astronomic RSI value.
I would place my bets on a market peak of ~154K, and a subsequent bottom at 29K. In the event of a market slide down 40K is a substantial support zone, with orders scattered between 29K and 40K a very risk averse accumulation tactic.
DENT/USDT - Binance - Potential channel and bull flag breakout Chart looks a bit noisy, but I'm testing out the Trend-Based FIB Time Indicator, hoping the retrace will bounce at its 1.0 marker. Further confluence of this present, as this point is also where the 50EMA, top blue CPR and a longish-term green trend line all meet.
Channel break DOWN measured move meets the 100EMA and red CPR line.
If there's further downward movement you could DCA at the lower red CPR lines.
Channel break UP measured move meets the 3.82 FIB and the 1st green CPR line (around 0.006148).
Further upward movement could lead to two potential pole moves; yellow meets the 1.0 FIB extension (0.007148ish) and white hits a green CPR (0.007382).
All eyes on BTC
BTCUSD one last breath at major support! My overall bias has been bearish but having said that I trade level to level, day-to-day, and will change my mind if we invalidate key levels to take us out of the current bear market.
BTC is showing bearish momentum and a very bearish market structure but that does not mean we can't look for longs.
After the perfect .618 golden pocket rejection at 48k, we now have everyone in panic so this would be the best time to take a nice, fat long again.
We're almost at critical support and it will be thoroughly tested IMO.
What I can see coming up is a nice swing long at around the 38.4k range.
Looking at TA:
We have the golden pocket (yellow lines) of the ENTIRE uptrend. There will be tons of buyers in this range from 37.2k - 38.5k
We have a daily level (blue line) of 38.1k
Fib 1 - 1 extension (red line) gives us 38.4k for the move down and this typically gets completed as such.
4H - 8H RSI is very, very low and this suggests we've got more room to drop from where we are.
Daily hidden bullish divergence if we maintain the 38k level and don't take out the wicks.
I think we'll be bouncing in this channel I have created. We're currently halfway through.
I'll share some more ideas below in the comments!
NFA.
Good luck!