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Fibextensions

USDCHF: UpdateI've hit my first three targets after calling the short on USDCHF a month ago on August 21st. I had mentioned that getting to Target Three was going to be more difficult than targets One and Two. Nevertheless, the current Bear on this pair is firmly in place and there is still room on the downside as global markets are displaying a more risky appetite. I'll be playing this one all the way to the bottom. Don't know exactly where that's at, but I've put in at least three more potential targets (Orange dotted line).
Short
by thetradeWELL
1
AUDUSD: LONG Opportunity BuildingVery strong Bullish price action on the Aussie/Dollar after finding support around the 0.7085 handle. Price has completed a bullish head and shoulders pattern but is facing resistance at the 0.725 mark. My system has not given a trade signal, so for now I am simply monitoring the pair to see how it follows through for the rest of the week. It is worth noting that Dealer Intermediaries have grown less net long the Aussie over the last two weeks. Next weeks CFTC report will likely continue this trend. LEVELS TO WATCH: 0.72822 - Price crosses above the 40 period moving average. 0.7210 - 100% Fib Extension off of September low. 0.7306 - 161.8% Fib Extension off of September low. 0.73515 - 200.0% Fib Extension off of September low. 0.7315 - 0.7262 - Supply Zone
by thetradeWELL
USDCHF: SHORT UPDATEI have been shorting and posting about the bearish trend on the DollarSwiss since I first got a trade signal on 07.25. I took my fist short almost a month later on 08.21 , which you can see here hit the first target. Another lot hit the second target which you can view here . After hitting the second target I mentioned that getting to my third target would take a little more time . It turned out I was correct as the pair entered a range after finding initial support on 08.31. We're still in that range and target three is still some ways away @0.95855, approximately 320 pips from 07.25 trade signal. Price action will need to close below the bottom of the range boundary @0.96450. If this takes place there is no significant support until we reach the top of the next Demand zone, which is also located at the 200% fib extension from the 07.13 high.
Short
by thetradeWELL
2
GBPUSD: LONG BIASOn two separate occasions within the month I've noted the shifting trend on the CABLE/DOLLAR. First, on August 29th I wrote that after finding support around 1.2690, Bulls were now in position to bid up the market. I was neutral then, but as I posted again on September 12th I noted that I actually missed my signal to go long that was issued on August 24th. As annoying as that was, I was still able to get in at a fairly decent price that same day @1.29924 although because I got in late my R/R is not so awesome at 0.97. The pair blew through target 1 which was at 1.3100 and 219 pips from the August 24th signal entry. I'm currently holding about 220 pips in profit from my actual entry on September 12th. The second target, if Bulls can actually push through the 1.32 handle, which is also the top-side of the most recent supply zone and close to the 161.8% extension level, is @1.33195.
Long
by thetradeWELL
USDCAD: SHORT BIASI published a short entry on the Dollar/Looney back on August 28th . Price action dipped below and closed beneath my sell zone. However, I closed that position with a small profit as price action retraced back up to 1.32 area. I kept my chart as is, with my sell zone still in tact, mostly because I am still on a short bias. Sentiment is intriguing at the moment as retail speculators are net long, but the last Canadian Dollar CoT report indicates that dealer intermediaries have been buying since the week of August 28th, and last week were BUYING INTO A RALLY. The fact that retail traders are net long and that dealers have been buying contracts over the last two weeks, suggest that the USDCAD could push lower. For now, I am in SHORT from 09.18 @1.30441 with a pretty sizable target 1 @1.25635. This pair has been complicated lately, so we'll just have to wait and see.
Short
by thetradeWELL
1
Help needed! What do you think about this? #Bitcoin #BTC (Here's the chart with higher quality) Playing around with Fib Extensions /// Used 3 Key Fib Extensions /// Got that overlapping of the 1.272 level... When I got the first two 1.272 overlapping level from Fib Extensions A and B I thought "wtf? this is peculiar...". Then I draw the last Fib Extension (c) and when that 1.272 level overlapped the two first one that was when I really stop to look at this... I draw some white boxes at level 1 for all the Fib Extensions and we're exactly on the middle of the 2nd box of the 3rd Fib Extention. -------------------------------------------- Q: What do you think about this? just a fun fact, or is there something more behind this Fib extension levels?? I really would like to read some opinions about this, so feel free to leave whatever you think, Thanks! --------------------------------------------
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by YearMillion
2
USOIL Corrected 38.2% On Higher TFsUSOIL just saw the anticipated correction to 38.2 FIB level of its impulse leg. The previous setup leg fading trade is closed and building long positions from here seems reasonable. However, theres a possibility that it'll see another round of selling that can potentially take it down to the 61.8% FIB level around 6805. Judging from previous experience with oil, corrections like this are bought pretty quickly, so monitoring V type of price action on higher TFs can provide additional information.
TVC:USOILLong
by Zoen_Trieste
How to trade reversal patterns & Fib extensions / Elliott wavesWhen you see a morning star pattern (you can use candle software to find such), usually it marks the start of Elliott wave 1 to 5 sequence, you enter at the end of the first correction wave (retrace into the body of morning star pattern). When wave 2 is completed, we plot Fibonacci retracements from the tail of Morning star and you will see how perfectly price reaches Fib extension 161.8 (1.336), the end of Elliott wave 5, doing pullbacks at FE 61.8 and FE 100 (1.326). Metatrader´s Fib extension has extensions of 61.8, 100 and 161.8 but thats enough. Now price is doing ABC correction pattern as you see.
Education
by ICFX
1
Trend Continuation PlanUSOIL, as stated in earlier ideas, went parabolic these last couple of days. It seems many sellers' stops got caught during this move. However, higher TFs now show a healthy trend continuation patterns evolving. At this point, there was a failure test below previous psychological high and now this market seems ready for a pullback formation before another bullish impulse leg. Anticipated supply zone is around $75.50, pullback long entries waiting around $70.50. The plan is king as long as the price is within the anticipated bounds.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by Zoen_Trieste
Gold Pullback Trend Continuation ShortGold is moving towards 1295, the 0.618 retracement of recent gap and .236 fib extension resistance of previous bear leg. The established trend remains bearish and lower lows and lower highs are evident on 240 graph. Higher TFs show that there is a potential for support as continuation of bigger bullish move on weekly might attract demand so staying alert for a serious bull move is recommended. For now, limit sell orders around 1295 with $7.5 stops (ATR*1.8) and 2R-3R target stop buy around 1275 seems to be the reasonable course.
FX_IDC:XAUUSDShort
by Zoen_Trieste
2618 Sell Pattern USOILUSOIL is seemingly done painting a pullback pattern. It reached 0.618 retracement level of previous bear leg, as well the 0.236 fib extension is pointing to the same level. If this market continues with the recent downtrend, these two levels should attract supply and a break to previous lows can potentially occur. The inside fork's MLH on bear impulse move pivots ABC is also anticipated to attract supply around these levels. This is a pullback trend continuation play with a decent R:R but lower probability. Worth the risk as per me.
TVC:USOILShort
by Zoen_Trieste
7
EOS DAY CRYPTO STRATEGYStep #1: EOS coin price must make a new 20-bars low You have to wait until cryptocurrency EOS makes a new 20-bars low. This is essential because we want to make sure that the prevailing trend is “well established.” The only reason why we trade against the original 20-bar rule is because we know that the original Turtle system has a very low win rate. So, you can make a failed pattern work for you if you do the exact opposite thing of what the initial pattern was supposed to do. Step #2: The previous low must have occurred at least 4 bars earlier than the current 20-bar low The second rule that needs to be satisfied before pulling our trigger is that the previous low must happen at least 4 bars earlier than the current 20-bar low. Basically, this trading rule is trying to point out that we need the EOS price to have a sharp move when it does the 20-day low. Why do we need the EOS price to have an abrupt move? If you’re an avid reader of our TSG blog, you probably know through our teachings that the more reliable reversal happens after a trend ends with a sharp move. The Turtle Soup reversal pattern satisfies all trading conditions outlined above which mean that we can move forward and describe how to buy EOS coin. Step #3: How to buy EOS: After the market drops below the 20-bar low, place a buy order above the prior 20-bar high Now, the original Turtle Soup pattern uses a slightly different entry method. Instead of buying at the prior 20-bar low we buy at the previous 20-bar high. This entry strategy ensures that we’re getting into the market while the market has stopped falling and it’s starting to get traction on the upside. This is one way we’re going to capture the potential trend reversal. Important note* If the buy EOS order is not triggered during the same day you must cancel the order Secondly, when trading EOS tokens with our strategy, your entry will be not too far from the low, which means that you’ll be able to use a very tight stop loss. Step #4: Place your protective Stop Loss below the current swing low After the buy EOS order is triggered, you have to place your initial stop loss below the current swing low. If the EOS price makes a new low, then we want to get out of our trade because the Turtle Soup pattern got invalidated. This cryptocurrency strategy allows us to maintain a very low risk profile on all of our trades. Professional traders and hedge fund managers always look first to protect their capital and this trading strategy enable you to accomplish that for yourself. Step #5: Take profit when you can count 20 bars from the 20-bar low or use your own exit strategy Again, our exit strategy is slightly different than the original Turtle Soup system. We take profits after the market has advanced at least 20 bars from the 20-bar low. Alternatively, you can use the initial exit strategy which requires for you to trail your stop loss. Due to the volatility of this reversal pattern your trade will last on average between 4 hours and a few days, so trade with caution. Note** the above was an example of a BUY trade using our EOS cryptocurrency strategy. Use the same rules for a SELL trade – but in reverse. PM me if you would like to read the complete strategy.
BITFINEX:EOSUSDLong
by Tradingstrategyguides
2
GBPAUD DAY ZIG ZAG STRATEGYStep #1: Set the ZigZag indicator settings at 20 for the Depth and 5% Deviation Firstly, we want to make sure the ZigZag tool will only show the more significant swing high and swing low points in the market. For this, we have to use at least 20 periods for the Depth and 5% deviation to accurately display the market swings. Step #2: Plot the Fibonacci Extension line once the first two swing waves are established. In order to plot the Fibonacci Extension line, we need three points of reference. As soon as the first two waves of the Zig Zag pattern are developed, we’re offered with three swing levels that we’re going to use to draw the Fibonacci extension levels. The reason why we use the Fib extension levels is to try to anticipate where the last swing wave of the Zig Zag pattern will be formed. The zig zag indicator will only mark the swing low as being formed too late for us to rely and base our trades alone on this indicator. This is the main reason we employ different trade tactics to anticipate where it’s more likely for the zig zag pattern to end. Step #3: Wait for the third wave to terminate between 0.618 – 0.786 or between 1.0 – 1.272 The reality is that market symmetry doesn’t happen that often. The AB=CD pattern requires a lot of precision in order to have all the conditions for this pattern to be valid. Throughout our backtesting software, we have found out that the third wave of the zigzag pattern ends either between 0.618 – 0.786 or between 1.0 – 1.272. Since we can’t know for sure where the third wave will end, we’re going to employ one of our favorite trade techniques to spot a swing point in the market. Step #4: Wait until you have a candle with a higher low on the right and the left. The bar from the right needs to break above the bar on the left. The three bar pattern to spot a market swing point is quite easy. All you need to do is to wait until you have a candle that has a higher low on both the left and the right side of it. In order for this three bar pattern to be confirmed we also need the bar from the right to break above the high of the bar from the left. Step #5: Zigzag Trading Strategy: Buy at the close of the three bar pattern After the three bar pattern is completed, we don’t want to lose any more time, and we go buy at the market. Note* We use the three bar pattern to anticipate swing market points with all of our trading strategies. Step #6: Hide your protective Stop Loss below the three bar pattern. The stop loss is going to go below the three bar pattern. Your stop loss may be a little bit bigger depending on the time frame you’re trading. You want to make sure that the three bar pattern where your stop loss goes maintains at least a 2% risk. You don’t want to risk more than 2% of your account in any given trade. Step #7: Take profit equal 2 or 3 times more the Stop Loss. Now, where’s our profit target going? The classical ABCD pattern essentially keeps you at a 1:1 risk reward ratio. Also, a lot of the times with the ABCD pattern, you’ll see it pretty frequently that those targets areas are front runned. However, when you trade with the Zig Zag indicator, you’re able to capture two or even three times more the risk taken. Note** the above was an example of a BUY trade using our Zig Zag trading system. Use the same rules for a SELL trade – but in reverse. PM me if you would like to read the complete strategy.
Short
by Tradingstrategyguides
USOIL Lower TF Long Set UpUSOIL has been in a steady downtrend these days. Going long here is a risky business but looking at the PA could work out fine. Strict risk management is of utmost importance. The Median Line of this inside for is considered as a 1.5R target. As well, the price is retreating after reaching 100% fib extension of the previous swing down. The same pivots are used for the inside fork and target is calculated as a mean reversion before continuing with the downtrend.
TVC:USOILLong
by Zoen_Trieste
1
Gold Potential Long OpportunityGold wants higher but bears are giving a good fight here. The minor trend is down and 0.236 of fib extension of the last leg down is clearly showing signs of resistance around the level of 1310. This long set up is essentially a counter trend setup which is not recommended usually but given the current circumstance, it might work out fine. Failing around this area, will ultimately lead to lower price around 1270, so tight stops are necessary.
FX_IDC:XAUUSDLong
by Zoen_Trieste
ETHUSD 4H CCI SHORT TRADEStep #1: Wait until the CCI indicator crosses below -100 level When we get a CCI reading below the -100 level, that shows statistically the USD gained more strength than average and therefore great for selling opportunities. As a leading indicator, the Commodity Channel indicator can provide us with excellent great trade signals. When the CCI crosses for the first time below the -100 level that’s the signal that a new bearish trend is about to start or at least a rally will emerge from where you can extract sound profits. Step #2: Wait for a retracement and make sure that during that retracement the CCI indicator holds below the zero line. Waiting for a pullback in price is a more defensive trading approach. However, you can also sell right away when the CCI crosses below -100. In this case, you need to make sure enough time has elapsed between now and the last time the CCI passed below -100. We’re going to apply the more conservative approach and wait for a retracement and the CCI indicator to hold below the zero line during this retracement. We want to see a weak retrace in the CCI indicator that barely goes above the -100 level, but at the same time, we need to look at the price action retracing more than the CCI did. We want to have strength to the downside, if we’re going to sell ETH/USD we want to see continued strength in the CCI reading when the price is pulling back. When the retracement happens, it’s important for the CCI indicator to remain below the zero line. If the CCI crosses above the zero line during the retracement, we’re no longer interested in going short ETH/USD. This is one perfect example of how to filter bad trades from the right trades. Note* The less the CCI turns up, the more powerful the rally should be. Step #3: Sell after 3 or 5 candles “worth” of retracement. Or, sharp Corrections are sold at the closing price. Now, we’re looking for short trades. We have two options for our entry strategy. We either sell after we have seen the market pulling back over the last 3-5 candles or we sell straight away if we have sharp corrections. The natural ebb and flow of the market are given by these short-term pullbacks that we’re going to use to trigger our entry. If the retrace was weak, it means the dominant energy of the market remains. The CCI indicator strategy reflects quite well what is happening behind the scene where the actual buying and selling pressure takes place. Step #4: Place your protective Stop Loss below the most recent swing low We’re proposing a very easy strategy to manage your stop loss. Simply place your protective stop loss below the most recent swing low. However, it’s important to also watch the CCI indicator for further clues of weakness, and if the CCI crosses above the +100 level after you’ve entered the market, you can close the trade at the market price if your stop loss wasn’t triggered in the process. Step #5: Take profit if CCI touches -200 or if CCI drops above the zero level. Whichever happens first. We have two trading tactics to implement when dealing with exits. The more profitable exit strategy is to take profits when the CCI touches the +200 level. However, since the market will only occasionally give us such big trading opportunities we need to have a backup plan. So…. As soon as the CCI indicator turns below the zero level, we want to exit our trade. The first sign that the rally is running out of steam is when the CCI indicator crosses below the zero line. I have also shown here 2 other options of taking profit. One is risk reward ratio (1to1, 2to1, 3to1). The second is a fib extension take profit. This trade hit the 227.2% fib. Note** the above was an example of a SELL trade using our CCI trading strategy PDF. Use the same rules for a BUY trade – but in reverse. PM me if you want to read the complete CCI trading strategy. Some intro information is on the update below.
BITFINEX:ETHUSDShort
by Tradingstrategyguides