COIN, BTC: An Interesting Fractal I Found; Macro Analysis
The Coinbase ( NASDAQ:COIN ) 4-hour chart is a perfect fractal of the Bitcoin weekly chart. Good ole' Wyckoff distribution. It even has the little Bart Simpson correction pattern from August 2020 that occurred shortly after the last halving and a few months before the first big leg up.
Considering current price action, Bitcoin and Coinbase, for that matter, will potentially be kicking off their fifth and final HTF waves up following what are likely to be multi-month consolidations. The next few months could resemble a less severe version of the "mini bear market" the crypto market experienced in the summer of 2021.
In BTC, I'm looking for stretch downside targets of around 56k and around 51k if 56k breaks. If it gets all the way down there, it would be a gift. On shorter time frames, assuming the 69k/70k resistance is not breached, there is likely more downside to come for both assets. Corrections to the upside should be approached with caution.
On COIN, an S/R flip under the fib fan's 50% level is all but confirmed on the 4-hour chart. If historical price action is any indication, this fractal suggests that testing the 0.618 is definitely in the cards. I'm eyeing $220 as a potential target. It's supported by a strong demand zone and the weekly VWAP.
Sentiment should remain relatively bullish on higher time frames so long as 50k isn't breached.
Fibfan
Spy in a complicated correction pattern.SPY is in a corrective pattern. It might go up a bit more, but ultimately I think the high is somewhere between those two orange dashed lines, and the low is $410 +/- $2.50 by end of week. If not then my guess is that's where it will open next Monday. I've linked a few of my previous ideas. Please excuse the rude language on two of them - I was posting them for a specific person to see.
This is just my guess. We've closed today on a black spinning top, so it could go either way. Again, I think if it bounces it will test those two orange lines, and then we'll know what will happen next.
NANO's New Groove Hello people!
I like trading NANO and now it seems we are reaching an interesting stage.
I used fib retracement and fib speed fan to determine realistic trading ranges and time frames.
I believe that the range 7.7 5.3 is where it seems to be heading if the movement keeps the inertia.
The price can easily navigate waters under 5.3usdt for a long time eventually leading up to the price of 11.8usdt
Breaking 11.8 we are going to have another interesting moment in the price action, potentially meaning moon or drastic fall. Both represent potentially profitable opportunities.
However, I do not make any recommendations.
Thanks for coming on this journey.
Happy trading.
ETH Rejected by the 0.382 Fib Fan Resist I am analyzing the daily here, so I will focus on a large price range and explain what I will be looking for to guide me in the upcoming days/weeks. I will only talk about the Fib Speed Resist and some simple support ranges and levels that I quickly added, so they are not extremely precise, but the ranges are fine. I just wanted to share the Fib lines publicly because they always fascinate me.
Here I highlighted the areas along the 0.382 Fib speed resist line, which acted as resistance on the way up to the ATH, and areas that acted as support on the way down. We found ourselves fighting this same line during the recent rally. The resistance of this line and the 4k area, among other things, has led to a massive rejection causing uncertainty in the market today. I will become more bearish if the market doesn't make a strong bullish move to the upside in the next 24 hours. If we don't see a nice recovery in the next day or two, all we can do is hold on for the ride. If the 2.9-3.3k support area is broken, I would look for support in the low 2.6ks or somewhere along the 0.5 Fib resist line highlighted in the rectangle. Last, if that support fails to hold, we could easily see the 1.7-1.8k area tested again. For the bulls reading this, if we see continuing attempts to break the resistance of the 0.382 Fib and hold above the 0.5 Fib as we saw in Nov/Dec of last year (also highlighted), we will be well on our way to some juicy gains for ETH.
Good Luck! I wish a prosperous future for you all.
Nano path in short term. These are the main channels to look forHello!
Guys, I used the Fibonacci fan as a drawing tool to reveal the short-term channels that the Nano|USDt is navigating through. I think it helps us define realistic entry and exit prices.
Another red days comeHi every one,
In the last past days markets had very complecated situation without any breathing rest time and I know there is a lot of people lost money or at least were panic. But the bad news for them is there will be another drop again. As I illustrate in this particular market, price goes down at least to 30 USD or maybe a little more. And then market have to choose one of the pathes I draw to continue its bearish movement to go more more down.
I hope you enjoyed of my analyse. For more updates please follow me. Also if you have the question please make a comment and let me know.
Thanks for your attention.
Best regards.
DXY Break Above Key Level!The DXY, or the dollar index, is inversely correlated with the markets (in this case). Overnight we saw a break of a critical Fib resistance level, so unless the Fed steps in and implements Yield Curve Control or a similar market positive policy, expect the dollar to move up to the next resistance level.
BTC (Y19.P6.Video.C) Cont.Is the bottom in?Hi,
Welcome to my 3rd video which will be part of the series of the Bitcoin Macro trend.
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Note: I posted a Macro Level chart back in July this year that is doing a good job for the current price formation.
The logic of this chart is also used as a reference but I did not have time to explain it in this video but it supports my thesis with the bottom being in.
I will include that post in the next video as well, to explain why I think the price will move a certain way.
The logic for this chart below, posted back in July is that after parabolic run, we will naturally see a sell off at the top.
and then the price will drop back to the support zone where it all started from, the parabolic run. Here there is an already established channel.
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In this video I will be talking about the current trend and its structure and what my take is from a number of sources.
Hence this presentation is a compilation of ideas that I have taken from others and incorporated them with my ideas as well.
Unfortunately I ran out of time so I will need to continue this video to finish of with Moving Averages and the 3rd part, which is fib. channels.
This video quickly recaps the previous videos and covers the x2 Btc cycles that occurred with each cycle having 4 phases or stages.
Each stage identified with its parabolic advance which is supported by the RSI
phase 1 and phase 2 have a common support level, base trend line
so we are going to try to use this historical reference for today's chart
This video covers chart structure using fibonannci as a means to make sense of the chart, I will highlight key milestones and pivot points
with the help of pitchfork, fib fan, fib circle, fib extension levels
The last part of this video covers the MA method.
Using Ma, we get the bottom support line using the 50,100,200 weekly ma.
cross over represents a bullish momentum.
Previous Video Post
July 22 post, that is somewhat accurate for today's price structure and this post demonstrates why it works based on a no. of assumptions.
ETH (Prj.Y19.P02.E05).LONG Entry PointOn the 4 HRLY Chart we have the following:
* 200 and 377 EMAs with Orange and Red lines.
* Downward (pitchfork) trend channel
* Historical support and resistance lines
* Preferable BUY ZONE to go LONG
* One can probably argue that the bottom was in at around $153 or so
* One can probably argue that we in the accumulation phase, for many ALTs
* and currently in a bullish reversal pattern in the making (Black lines).
Thoughts:
* Expecting price to approach 200 EMA and be rejected > dependent on BTC performance
* Price to drop to the Green Zone where it will complete a DOUBLE BOTTOM to go long, within the current bullish reversal pattern
* Referring to the ALT Dominance chart, I can see it going side-wards for some time
* Referring to the ETH\BTC Pairing, one can argue a cup and handle is in the making or can agree the formation was\is bullish and probably as well that the bottom was in at the bottom of the cup pattern.
(wished I looked at it before). Its worth watching if the HANDLE gets completed, making a good entry as well. It might have confluence with the chart above as per the Green zone.
ETH/BTC 4 HRLY Pairing Chart
Cheers,
S.Sari
BTC (Prj.Y19.P5.E6).My.MacroChart.Fib levelsJust wanted to put this out there for people to take advantage of price confluence and where they move towards, key fib.levels based on my perception.
If one was to look closely at this chart, you will notice many confluences with key fib.(pitchfork) levels.
Currently we have a small channel also ranging and just like we had above 10K ranging and then squeezing, I expect a smaller version to take place before it drops.
Only in this case, the 10K is now 8K.
As for direction, my past posts explain my position.
Close up on the current price channel
Other MACRO Level thoughts
GBPJPY - Fib Long!I was asked for a GBPJPY chart by a TGH viewer, so here is what I see!
Hopefully, we could see a nice entry as price retested the fib channel support near 131, the green box on the chart there.
Stop loss is clearly defined as falling below 100% there negates the validity of the impulse wave I have selected with the fib retracement tool.
Good luck Traders!