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Fibonacci

BTC - 4H Elliott Wave Count (part 2 of 2)Greetings, this is my current Elliott Wave count for Bitcoin. This time it is a bit different as I will do two separate post one containing the bullish count and one containing the bearish count. I split it up into two posts to keep the chart clean so it is easier to understand and I highly recommend reading both as none of them is preferred at the moment. I do post both counts now instead of waiting for clarity so everybody has time to prepare and get ready as the price might move fast especially with more news tomorrow the 16. January and the inauguration of Trump next Monday the 20th January. The counterpart counts will respectively be posted in the notes down below. The bearish count: In this count we assume that we are still working on the red Wave C and the recent rally is just the white Wave 2 which would be followed by an impulsive Wave 3 in white. The white Wave 2 unfolded in the orange ABC as an expanding Flat with the orange Wave B hitting the 1.38 extension of orange Wave A which is a common target for an overshooting B Wave. The white Wave 2 support area is between the 0.5 FIB at 96908.9 USD and the 0.786 FIB at 100257.0 USD. We are currently trading within it. Be aware that a sustained break above the 0.786 FIB at 100257.0 USD is the first indication that the blue Wave 4 has finished at the 88909.0 USD on the 13th of January. Noteworthy is that 100k is a psychological level and we might test it, which would go beyond the 0.786 FIB at 100257.0 USD but as long as it is a wick and not a sustained break that would be acceptable. If white Wave 2 is finished potential targets for the white Wave 3 would be the 1 to 1 FIB at 88040.3 USD, the 1.236 FIB at 85277.6 USD, the 1.38 FIB at 83591.9 USD and the 1.618 FIB at 80805.8 USD. Important is that we see an impulsive five Wave move down now. Thanks for reading. NO FINANCIAL ADVICE.
Short
by KanashimiBro
BTC - 4H Elliott Wave Analysis (part 1 of 2)Greetings, this is my current Elliott Wave count for Bitcoin. This time it is a bit different as I will do two separate post one containing the bullish count and one containing the bearish count. I split it up into two posts to keep the chart clean so it is easier to understand and I highly recommend reading both as none of them is preferred at the moment. I do post both counts now instead of waiting for clarity so everybody has time to prepare and get ready as the price might move fast especially with more news tomorrow the 16. January and the inauguration of Trump next Monday the 20th January. The counterpart counts will respectively be posted in the notes down below. The bullish count: In this count we assume that the red ABC is finished and with it the blue Wave 4 bottomed during the 13th January at 88909.0 USD and we started the blue Wave 5 which could be the last rally in this bull market. The recent move up could be 1st Wave of the impulse displayed as white Wave 1 here. Next we are looking for a retracement in white Wave 2. Wave 2 support sits between the 0.5 FIB at 94327.8 USD and the 0.786 FIB at 91228.2 USD. After we get the orange Wave A and B we can calculated further targets for orange Wave C which would finish white Wave 2. Important is that the coming retracement is in a corrective fashion and not an impulsive. If we see five Waves down now this could be the first indication that the bears are in control and we might get a lower blue Wave 4. Thanks for reading. NO FINANCIAL ADVICE.
Long
by KanashimiBro
SWING IDEA - JIO FINANCIAL SERVICESJio Financial Services , an emerging force in the financial sector, exhibits signs of a potential upward move, presenting a swing trading opportunity. Reasons are listed below : Strong Support Zone at 300 : This level has proven to be a strong support, enhancing the likelihood of a bounce. Bullish Hammer on Weekly Timeframe : A bullish hammer candlestick pattern indicates potential reversal and buyer interest at lower levels. 0.5 Fibonacci Support : The price is aligned with the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level, suggesting that it could act as a springboard for further upward movement. 50 EMA Support on Weekly Timeframe : Trading above the 50 EMA adds to the bullish outlook and provides an additional layer of support. Target - 360 // 385 Stoploss - weekly close below 295 DISCLAIMER - Decisions to buy, sell, hold or trade in securities, commodities and other investments involve risk and are best made based on the advice of qualified financial professionals. Any trading in securities or other investments involves a risk of substantial losses. The practice of "Day Trading" involves particularly high risks and can cause you to lose substantial sums of money. Before undertaking any trading program, you should consult a qualified financial professional. Please consider carefully whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition and ability to bear financial risks. Under no circumstances shall we be liable for any loss or damage you or anyone else incurs as a result of any trading or investment activity that you or anyone else engages in based on any information or material you receive through TradingView or our services. @visionary.growth.insights
NSE:JIOFINLong
by Visionary_Growth_Insights
1
SWING IDEA - PNB HOUSING FINANCEPNB Housing Finance , a prominent housing finance company in India, is exhibiting a promising swing trade setup supported by strong technical signals. Reasons are listed below : Breakout and Retest of 800 Zone : The stock previously broke a strong resistance at 800 and is now retesting it, showing potential for upward momentum. Bullish Marubozu Candle : A strong bullish marubozu candle on the weekly timeframe indicates robust buying interest. Golden Fibonacci Zone : The stock is bouncing back from a key Fibonacci retracement level, suggesting a continuation of the uptrend. 50 EMA Support : Price action is well-supported by the 50 EMA on the weekly timeframe, affirming bullish sentiment. Volume Spike : A significant increase in trading volumes highlights growing investor confidence. Target - 1190 // 1380 Stoploss - weekly close below 825 DISCLAIMER - Decisions to buy, sell, hold or trade in securities, commodities and other investments involve risk and are best made based on the advice of qualified financial professionals. Any trading in securities or other investments involves a risk of substantial losses. The practice of "Day Trading" involves particularly high risks and can cause you to lose substantial sums of money. Before undertaking any trading program, you should consult a qualified financial professional. Please consider carefully whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition and ability to bear financial risks. Under no circumstances shall we be liable for any loss or damage you or anyone else incurs as a result of any trading or investment activity that you or anyone else engages in based on any information or material you receive through TradingView or our services. @visionary.growth.insights
NSE:PNBHOUSINGLong
by Visionary_Growth_Insights
US Inflation: A Break in Core Trends Sparks Market OptimismThe December US inflation data presented a mixed picture, but with a nuance that markets have chosen to interpret optimistically. After a prior week where robust economic data cooled expectations for rate cuts in 2025, the newly released figures offer a welcome relief. The headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose to 2.9% year-over-year, in line with market expectations, marking its third consecutive increase since September. However, the real surprise came from the core measure, which excludes volatile food and energy prices. Contrary to expectations of stability, the annual core metric fell to 3.2%. This unexpected decline has infused optimism into markets, creating a "glass half full" sentiment. This key data, alongside the Producer Price Index (PPI) published the previous day, has triggered a positive movement in financial markets. US equities rose midweek, with the S&P 500 climbing 1.6%. Meanwhile, Treasury yields fell, and the US dollar depreciated. This market reaction suggests that investors see these numbers as an indication that inflationary pressures might be easing, potentially influencing future decisions by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The unexpected drop in core inflation is an encouraging sign, suggesting inflationary pressures could be diminishing faster than anticipated. Coupled with a moderated PPI, it bolsters the narrative that the Fed may have room to adopt a more accommodative stance in its monetary policy moving forward. It is worth noting that the equity rally has also been driven by strong corporate earnings, particularly in the banking sector. Results from financial giants like JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, and Goldman Sachs, which exceeded market expectations, have helped boost investor confidence. While headline inflation remains above the Fed’s 2% target, the moderation in the core measure offers a glimmer of hope. Markets are now increasingly anticipating the possibility of the Fed resuming rate cuts in the second half of 2025, although the resilient labor market, with 256,000 new jobs created in December, remains a key consideration. While it’s premature to declare victory, today’s data provides a more optimistic perspective on the inflation trajectory. It is crucial to closely monitor economic data and market reactions as the inflation situation evolves, particularly under the leadership of the new Donald Trump 2.0 administration.
PEPPERSTONE:US500
by Pepperstone
EURGPB Wave Analysis 15 January 2025 - EURGPB reversed from multi-month resistance level 0.8445 - Likely to fall to support level 0.8380 EURGPB currency pair recently reversed down from the strong multi-month resistance level 0.8445, which has been steadily reversing the price from the start of September, as can be seen below. The resistance level 0.8445 was further strengthened by the upper daily Bollinger Band and by the nearby 61.8% Fibonacci correction of the downtrend from the start of August. Given the overbought daily Stochastic, EURGPB currency pair can be expected to fall to the next support level 0.8380.
Short
by FxProGlobal
$SPY January 15th, 2025AMEX:SPY January 15th, 2025 15 minutes As the numbers are below 200 averages in 15 minutes, I will short. For the fall 595 to 575 we have ascillator divergence, therefore, taking 575.35 as the low, drawing extension for the move 575.5 to 585 to 578.35, we have a first target of 588 and second target of 594 levels For the fall 597.75 to 575.35 we have 0.618 retracement at 590 - 591 levels. That is the level I will short. However, we have 200 averages at 588 levels, therefore the short will give us only $2 profit. Since the risk to reward is not good, we have to wait for the first 15 minute bar to form to see how the close is located, either near top or near bottom. As written many times, gaps which are unfilled are strong, therefore if we get the first bar close near top, keeping the low of the bar as stoploss, we have to go long. The reason is the values become above 200 averages, therby triggering a buy.
AMEX:SPY
by RiderTrader
4
From Loss to Opportunity: The GBPJPY Comeback Trade U Can’t MissWe’re back with an update on GBPJPY, breaking down our lessons learned from a stopped-out trade and how we re-entered smarter and stronger. See how we use precise risk management, volume analysis, and Fibonacci tools to set up a 3:1 reward-to-risk ratio trade. This update covers everything from identifying key levels to avoiding common pitfalls. Watch now to see why capital preservation is the cornerstone of long-term trading success!
Short
by BlueOceanFxAcademy
PriceTime Concept in Fractal AnalysisI continue to receive numerous questions about recommended reading, which has left me no other option than pay my debt to the society by elaborating a little more on the unconventional analysis I frequently perform using Fibonacci Channels. Alongside with theoretical insights I'll provide my key inspirations. The Misbehavior of Markets - Mechanics of Chaos Benoit Mandelbrot, one of the most extraordinary minds of the 20th century, launched a full rebellion against traditional finance in his book, “The Misbehavior of Markets”. In it, he introduced his groundbreaking “10 Heresies”, a direct challenge to the core assumptions and principles underpinning mainstream financial theories. Mandelbrot’s insights expose how conventional models fail to account for the complexity, unpredictability, and turbulence that define real-world markets. 10 Heresies: Markets Are Wild, Not Tame Traditional View: Markets follow predictable, Gaussian-based models with mild fluctuations. Mandelbrot’s View: Markets exhibit “wild randomness” with extreme, sudden changes that far exceed the predictions of Gaussian distributions. Heresy: Risk management and pricing models underestimate the likelihood of extreme events. Financial Variance Is Infinite Traditional View: Variance (a measure of risk) is finite and calculable using standard tools. Mandelbrot’s View: In fractal finance, price movements can have infinite variance due to heavy tails in the distribution of returns. Heresy: Risk cannot be fully measured or predicted using current methods. Markets Have Memory Traditional View: Markets are “memoryless,” meaning past price movements do not influence future ones (random walk hypothesis). Mandelbrot’s View: Markets exhibit long-term memory and dependence, where past trends and events affect current behavior. Heresy: Independence of price changes is a myth. Markets Are Multifractal Traditional View: Price movements are linear and follow simple Brownian motion. Mandelbrot’s View: Markets are multifractal, with different scaling behaviors across timeframes, and cannot be reduced to linear equations. Heresy: Linear models cannot capture market complexity. Time in Markets Is Variable Traditional View: Time in markets flows at a constant rate, making it possible to analyze data at fixed intervals. Mandelbrot’s View: Market time is irregular and subjective, accelerating during high activity (volatility clusters) and slowing during calm periods. Heresy: Time is not constant in financial analysis. Prices Do Not Follow Random Walks Traditional View: Prices move randomly and independently, forming a normal distribution. Mandelbrot’s View: Prices are influenced by patterns, memory, and clustering, resulting in heavy-tailed distributions. Heresy: Random walk theory oversimplifies market dynamics. Markets Are Non-Efficient Traditional View: The Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) suggests that all available information is reflected in prices, leaving no room for inefficiencies. Mandelbrot’s View: Markets are often irrational and exhibit inefficiencies driven by emotions, memory, and fractal structures. Heresy: Perfect market efficiency is an illusion. Risk Is Not Symmetrical Traditional View: Risk is modeled symmetrically, assuming equal likelihood of positive and negative deviations. Mandelbrot’s View: Downside risks are more extreme and frequent, leading to asymmetry in market behavior. Heresy: Risk models that assume symmetry are dangerously flawed. Models Need to Embrace Chaos Traditional View: Financial models aim for order and predictability, relying on simplified assumptions. Mandelbrot’s View: Markets are chaotic and unpredictable but exhibit fractal structures that can provide insights. Heresy: Chaos should be embraced, not ignored, in modeling markets. Forecasting Is Fundamentally Limited Traditional View: With enough data and sophisticated models, market behavior can be forecasted with high accuracy. Mandelbrot’s View: Forecasting is inherently uncertain due to the wild randomness and complex nature of markets. Heresy: Precise prediction of market movements is a fool’s errand. Mandelbrot's ideas answered why markets behave the way they do, rather than relying on surface-level analysis. It was definitely more convincing than any traditional TA material that had not much information on cause-effect mechanisms that reveal the deeper structural relationship within price movements. Fortunately, long before becoming acquainted with Mandelbrot’s take on markets, I had already developed my own perspective, thanks to the experiments I conducted right here on TradingView years back. My work perfectly aligned with his vision that acknowledges complexity, extreme events, irregularities and the interconnectedness of historic data. Concept of Relativity I got another inspiration from reading a story about the most pivotal breakthroughs in Albert Einstein’s intellectual journey, leading directly to his formulation of the theory of relativity that later on forever changed the world. His thought experiment revealed the strange and counterintuitive nature of time when viewed from different frames of reference. As Einstein imagined himself racing alongside a beam of light, he realized that from his perspective on the bus, as it was moving away from clocktower, the clock would appear frozen because the light carrying the image of the clock’s moving hands would no longer reach him. This insight, combined with his deep understanding of the constancy of the speed of light, led him to question the absolute nature of time and space. The culmination of this “storm” in his mind was the realization that time is not universal; it is relative to the observer’s motion. This revolutionary idea, published in his 1905 paper on special relativity, fundamentally changed our understanding of the universe, introducing concepts like time dilation and the interdependence of time and space—a unified spacetime . Einstein’s ability to visualize such extraordinary scenarios highlights the power of thought experiments in scientific discovery. It was not only the mathematics but also his imagination that allowed him to redefine our understanding of reality. PriceTime Model via Fibonacci Channels After being able to visualize and somehow digest the complexity behind mathematical model of relativity, I returned to Mandelbrot's book to read more about his stance on time itself. "Price is a function of trading time, which in turn is a function of clock time" - B. Mandelbrot I mean who am I to disagree with a professor... Moreover, it really begins to look like Price and Time are connected similarly to the concept of SpaceTime. Given that the psychology of the masses is inherently sensitive to the golden ratio, I was inspired to create a unified graphical framework that interconnects price dynamics, enabling navigation through the complexities of ever-evolving financial markets. By directly measuring trend angles within significant cycles, I realized that the chart’s complexity could essentially simulate itself. I incorporate psychological levels (via Fibonacci ratios) into my analysis, acknowledging how emotions shape market behavior. By embedding these emotional drivers into fractal structures, I align with Mandelbrot’s understanding of the market as a blend of human psychology and mathematical order. This led to the discovery that Fibonacci ratios influence not only the price axis but also the time axis, unveiling a deeper fractal harmony in market behavior. The way mass (or energy) curves the spacetime fabric to explain the behavior of objects in physics is strikingly similar to how historic price movements (a manifestation of energy) shape the pricetime fabric, revealing the fractal cyclicality inherent in financial markets. My work builds on Mandelbrot’s groundbreaking theories by turning his insights into practical tools. By combining his principles of self-similarity, chaos, and complexity with innovations like Fibonacci-based fractal mapping and trend directionality, I offer a fresh perspective on market behavior. This approach personally helps me to navigate the complexity of financial markets, staying true to Mandelbrot’s legacy while pushing the boundaries of fractal analysis. My motivation for staying on TradingView and analyzing charts transcended being money-driven. I could no longer see markets the same way. I broke free from the rat race and devoted my life to studying charts as a reflection of reality, aiming to uncover the intrinsic rhythm that truly drives price fluctuations. That realization inspired me to prioritize structure-based prediction over blind forecasts driven by subjective narratives, which are often flawed at their core. Sadly, great minds like Benoit Mandelbrot are no longer with us, but it is our responsibility as TradingView users to carry forward their work, treating it as our own mission to honor their legacy. The bottom line is that we should not confine ourselves to the literature of Technical or Fundamental Analysis alone. Instead, we must draw insights from any field, using diverse methods and approaches, to develop a robust probabilistic framework for anticipating future price movements.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by fract
17