Caught the pivots up, now what?If you find this information inspiring/helpful, please consider a boost and follow! Any questions or comments, please leave a comment!
After catching the directional turn and key pivot level ahead of the recent move, Ethereum delivered the reaction we were anticipating. But what comes next?
The current W2 corrective structure isn’t textbook, so what do we do?
At this stage, we’re anchoring our analysis off the Wave 3 price action, which likely completed before the latest correction. That sets us up to track a potential Wave 4 development.
Here’s what’s still on the table:
We have a sideways style W2
For a wave 4, based off of alternation, we should be looking for a:
A sharp zigzag
Or a contracting triangle coiling up for the next breakout
Key Level to Watch:
👉 A clean break below 2159 would invalidate the more bullish interpretations and open the door to deeper corrective action. ⚠️
Until then, staying patient and letting the structure develop will be key.
Trade safe, trade smart, trade clarity.
Fibonacci
AUDJPY Wave Analysis – 21 May 2025
- AUDJPY reversed from key resistance level 95.30
- Likely to fall to support level 92.00
AUDJPY currency pair recently reversed down from the key resistance level 95.30 (which has been reversing the price from the middle of March).
The downward reversal from the resistance level 95.30 started the active intermediate correction (B).
Given the strength of the resistance level 95.30 and clear daily downtrend, AUDJPY currency pair can be expected to fall to the next support level 92.00.
Nikkei 225 Wave Analysis – 21 May 2025
- Nikkei 225 reversed from the resistance level 38280.00
- Likely to fall to support level 36000.00
Nikkei 225 index recently reversed down from the pivotal resistance level 38280.00 (former top of wave 4 from the start of this year).
The downward reversal from the resistance level 66.00 created the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern, Shooting Star.
Given the strength of the resistance level 38280.00, Nikkei 225 index can be expected to fall to the next support level 36000.00.
Brent crude oil Wave Analysis – 21 May 2025
- Brent crude oil reversed from key resistance level 66.00
- Likely to fall to support level 62.00
Brent crude oil recently reversed down from the key resistance level 66.00, which has been reversing the price from the start of April, as can be seen from the daily Brent crude oil chart below.
The downward reversal from the resistance level 66.00 created the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Evening Star.
Given the clear daily downtrend, Brent crude oil can be expected to fall to the next support level 62.00.
Bitcoin to touch the 236 next?4H timeframe
Bitcoin near-touched the ATH and currently we are yet to break above this level. Candle closes above the ATH could send BTC into price discovery however for now we should assume that it could be resistance.
Liquidity Zone @ 100,500
We could see a reaction to the 236 which is sat directly below the liquidity.
Microphone pattern formed during recent p.a.
I do think that if BTC is unable to succeed the previous ATH then we could see bearish price movement.
Going short on the Nasdaq 100CAPITALCOM:US100
The Nasdaq 100 has moved up impulsively on a 5-wave move over the past 6 weeks, which is very bullish long term. However, in the short term, it is overextended, with the RSI indicator over the 70 level.
I expect it to decline over the next couple of weeks to the area marked in the green rectangle, between the 50% and the 78.6% Fibonacci Retracement level.
I hope you find this interesting.
Good luck to you
Going Short on EthereumBINANCE:ETHUSDT
Ethereum has moved up strongly in the last 6 weeks to a key resistance level, which is the 50% Fibonacci Retracement, leaving a huge Fair Value Gap between the $2,400 USDT and the $1,900 USDT level. Most Fair Value Gaps get filled, and I expect it to be the case this time. The Gap closes at around $1,900 USDT.
I also see this move overextended in the short term and do for a correction, so I am going short here.
I hope you find this interesting.
Good luck to you
Going Short on BitcoinBINANCE:BTCUSDT
Bitcoin has moved up strongly in the last 5 weeks in a 5-wave up move, which is very bullish long term. However, after a 5-wave move, there is usually a 3-wave corrective move to the opposite direction. The most common target will be the Golden Pocket, which is between the 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement and the 78.6% Fibonacci Retracement. Which would be between $86,500 USDT and $81,200 USDT. This move will probably take several weeks, probably between 2 and 4 weeks, before it resumes to the upside.
Another point to consider is that the RSI indicator has reached overbought levels, above the 70 level. I would like to see it near oversold levels, 30 level, before considering going long.
I hope you find this interesting.
Good luck to you
BTC Back to $100K — The Final Dip Before All-Time Highs?Bitcoin has been trading slowly and steadily just below its all-time high at $109588. The key question now is:
💭 Is BTC ready to break through and print a new all-time high? Or does it need one more dip before liftoff?
Let’s break it down.
Elliott Wave Structure & Market Context
BTC recently completed a clean 5-wave impulsive structure, with Wave 5 topping out into a major resistance zone. That confluence included:
Value Area High (VAH)
Weekly resistance
Daily multi-level clusters
Final resistance zone before price discovery
After multiple rejections from this zone, BTC lacked the momentum for a breakout — so a retracement was expected.
And that’s what we’re now seeing: a textbook ABC correction.
📉 ABC Correction Breakdown
✅ Wave A: Dropped sharply, nearly tapping the psychological $100K level
✅ Wave B: Retraced into the prior resistance band between $106133 and $104464 — rejected perfectly off the 0.786 Fib of Wave A
🔄 Wave C: Now unfolding
To project the potential bottom of Wave C, we use the trend-based Fib extension (Wave A = Wave C). The 1:1 extension lands at:
🎯 $99875 — Right at the $100K psychological magnet
Add this confluence:
🟢 Key swing high at $99475
✅ 0.5 Fib retracement of the entire 5-wave rally
🔍 Psychological Level: $100K
🔑 Liquidity and demand zone
This makes the $99K–$101K area a strong, high-conviction support zone.
🟢 Long Trade Setup
Entry zone: Ladder between $101K – $99K
Stop-loss: Below GETTEX:97K
Target: New all-time high at $109588
R:R: ~3:1+
Structure: Correction into high-confluence zone + psychological level = high probability setup
📌 Summary:
BTC likely finishing Wave C of ABC correction
$100K = confluence of Fib, structure, psychology, and liquidity
Setup is simple: Wait for price to retest this zone and trigger your plan
If this level holds, BTC may be ready to attempt a breakout into price discovery
Let the chart come to you — and trade the reaction, not the anticipation. 📉🔁📈
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EURUSD – CME Gap and 0.786 Fib Align at Key Demand ZoneEURUSD has been trading with a strong bullish tone recently, breaking through previous resistance levels with conviction. However, after the latest impulse move to the upside, the market is now showing signs of exhaustion. Price has begun to pull back in a controlled manner, creating a potential opportunity for a deeper retracement into a more favorable area of interest. This kind of pullback is typical after an aggressive rally, and right now, there’s clear evidence that price may need to revisit lower levels before any further continuation higher.
Technical Confluence at Its Best:
Below the current range, there is a high-probability demand zone that combines three powerful elements: a well-respected historical support area, a CME gap that was left unfilled during the previous rally, and a 0.786 Fibonacci retracement from the latest bullish leg. These levels don’t just sit close to each other, they stack right on top of one another, forming a dense pocket of liquidity and technical confluence. The market often gravitates toward these types of zones to rebalance price and fuel the next directional move.
Short-Term Bearish Setup – Let Price Come to You:
The expectation is for price to dip lower in the short term. This would allow the market to tap into the unfilled CME gap and sweep the liquidity resting below the current structure. Traders who went long late in the move are likely to have their stops sitting just beneath recent lows, and this sets the stage for a classic inducement and stop hunt scenario. Price doesn't need to collapse, just a healthy retracement into this confluence zone to rebalance and refill the inefficiency before the real move begins.
Bullish Reversal Expectations:
Once price fills the CME gap and reaches into the 0.786 Fib retracement level, the focus shifts back to bullish. If the market holds this support cleanly and shows early signs of strength, like a displacement back above short-term structure or a strong engulfing candle, this could signal the beginning of a new upward leg. Given the context and momentum from the previous rally, it’s reasonable to anticipate a strong reaction that could drive price back toward the recent highs or potentially even higher.
The Psychology Behind the Setup:
This type of setup is a textbook example of how smart money operates. Price leaves a gap, traders pile in on the breakout, and then the market retraces to fill the imbalance and shake out weak hands before resuming the trend. Understanding the logic behind the CME gap, the liquidity below price, and how the Fib level ties everything together gives this setup depth. It’s not just about lines and zones, it’s about how liquidity flows through the market and how structure sets up to trap and reward.
Conclusion:
Patience is key. Rather than chasing the bullish momentum at current levels, the plan is to wait for price to revisit the zone where the CME gap, historical support, and the 0.786 Fib level align. That’s where the real value lies. If the reaction from this zone is clean and confirms strength, it offers a high-probability entry for the next leg up. No need to force anything, let the market come to you, then execute with precision.
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btc fibonacci levels btc has made it to 109500 we are holding levels I'd put them on your chart if i was you haha good times if you holds btc sats if we can hold 108632 we will continue to uptrend my Gann Master calculator has given me a trade setup Trade Strategy
Long to $112,975:
Entry: Current price ($109,093) or on a pullback to $107,774.
Target: $112,975 (Fibonacci extension, GMC 1080°).
Stop-Loss: Below $106,465 (Square of Nine -720°), risking ~$2,600.
Time: Exit by May 26 (14-day cycle).
Short for Pullback (Post-Target):
Entry: If BTC hits $112,975 and shows rejection, enter short.
Target: $107,774 (Square of Nine -360°).
Stop-Loss: Above $113,091, risking ~$1,200.
Time: Expect the dip by June 2 (21-day cycle).
this is still experimental so be careful and lock in profits
At ATH, blast continuation or tap and turn?If you find this information inspiring/helpful, please consider a boost and follow! Any questions or comments, please leave a comment!
🚀 Tap & Turn… or Blast?
Bitcoin is reacting well to mapped levels, maintaining structure and respecting key zones. Price action continues to print HLs and HH keeping the bulls confident, atm.
💥 Levels Still Respecting
Recent price action has shown solid reactions at prior resistance and support zones. Nothing overly aggressive, but clean enough to keep structure traders engaged.
🐂 Bulls Still in Control (for Now)
Higher lows remain intact, keeping the bullish structure alive. I did take a lower-degree short, but without a clean break of those HLs, there's no reason to call a shift yet. A break of that pattern would be the first real sign of momentum fading.
🚧 Key Watch Zone: 106K–104K
This is where things get more critical. A clean break below that zone could tilt the balance.
Trade safe, trade smart, trade clarity.
As gold's rally stalls, do bears have a chance?Technical aspect:
Gold is currently fluctuating in a narrow range around 3310, and the short-term direction is not clear. However, the rebound potential is relatively weak, but for the London market, gold's willingness to retreat is not strong; however, from a technical perspective, the current gold structure is still biased towards bulls, and gold still has the potential to continue to rebound to the area around 3330, or even the area around 3350;
However, after the rise of gold stagnates, we still cannot aggressively chase gold in trading, one is to prevent technical retracement after the sharp rise of gold; the other is to prevent the retracement of gold in order to grab liquidity after the rise of gold stagnates. In the short term, the support area we must pay attention to is in the 3285-3275 area, followed by the 3260-3250 area. If gold cannot break through the 3320-3330 area in the short term, gold may still continue to test the support area.
Trading strategy:
1. If gold still cannot effectively break through the area around 3320 in the short term, you can consider trying to short gold in small quantities around 3310-3320; TP: 3280-3270, set up protection to prevent gold from continuing to rise to 3330 or even 3350;
2. Consider going long on gold when gold retreats to the 3285-3280 area, set up protection to prevent gold from continuing to retreat to the 3260 area.
USD/CAD Rejected at Key Resistance The Canadian Dollar is attempting to mount a counter-offensive this week with USD/CAD trying to snap a two-week rally. A reversal off technical resistance is now approaching initial support and the first test for the US Dollar bulls.
Initial weekly support rests with the 61.8% retracement of the recent advance at 1.3852 and is backed by key support at 1.3729/94- a region defined by the 38.2% retracement of the 2021 advance and the 61.8% retracement of the late-2023 advance. Look for a larger reaction there IF reached with a break / weekly close below needed to invalidate the 2021 uptrend / suggest a larger reversal is underway. Subsequent support objectives seen at 1.618% extension of the February decline / 78.6% retracement near 1.3504/23.
Weekly resistance stands at 1.3965/97- a region defined by the 52-week moving average, the 2022 swing high, and the 23.6% retracement of the yearly range. A break above this key pivot zone exposes confluent resistance at the 38.2% retracement / February lows at 1.4149/51- note that basic channel resistance converges on this zone over the next few days and a topside breach / close above would be needed to suggest a more significant low is in place / a larger recovery is underway. Subsequent resistance objectives eyed at the high-week reversal close at 1.4292 and the 2025 yearly open at 1.4383.
Bottom line : The USD/CAD recovery has responded to initial resistance around the yearly moving average. The immediate focus is on this pullback with initial support now in view. From at trading standpoint, losses would need to be limited to the 2022 trendline (red) IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a close above 1.3997 needed to fuel the next leg of the advance. Watch the weekly closes for guidance here.
-MB
NFLX heads up into $1230: Major Resistance zone may give a DipNFLX has been on a tear but nearing a major resistance.
$1215.37 is a Golden Covid fib forming bottom bound.
$1231.61 is a minor Genesis fib forming the top bound.
It is PROBABLE that we see a dip from there.
It is POSSIBLE to consolidate within the zone.
It is PLAUSIBLE to break-and-retest to go more.
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Previous Analysis that caught the BOTTOM
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TRUMPUSDT – RSI Bounce & Symmetrical Triangle BreakoutTRUMPUSDT is showing a strong technical setup on the 8H timeframe, with bullish confirmation from both momentum and pattern breakout.
✅ Key Technical Signals:
RSI 50 Bounce: Price recently bounced off the RSI 50 midline, a classic sign of a continuation of bullish momentum.
Symmetrical Triangle Breakout: We've broken out above the triangle resistance, suggesting a potential trend reversal or continuation to the upside.
📈 Trade Setup:
Entry: On confirmed triangle breakout.
Stop Loss: Just below recent structure at 13 USDT — the price before breakout confirmation.
Take Profit Targets (Fibonacci Levels):
🎯 TP1 – 0.236 Fib: 24.260 USDT
🎯 TP2 – 0.382 Fib: 34.854 USDT
🎯 TP3 – 0.5 Fib: 43.905 USDT
🎯 TP4 – 0.618 Fib: 52.956 USDT
🎯 TP5 – 0.786 Fib: 65.371 USDT
⚠️ Always use proper risk management. Not financial advice – DYOR.
Update GoldGold currently has a hard stop on the daily frame. If the price breaks the 3350 threshold, we wait for the old supply to recover to buy at the above 2 thresholds.
I am still short gold on this idea at the moment with a stop loss of 3248.
In case the market reverses the plan to break through 3248, we should consider capital management by cutting losses, and waiting in a buying position like this idea. However, this strategy has a high stop loss of 1000 pips. So we need to consider the trading volume by allocating at each level. I will update the positions in smaller time frames.
GBPCHF - Expecting Bearish Continuation In The Short TermH1 - Clean bearish trend with the price creating series of lower highs, lower lows.
No opposite signs.
Expecting further continuation lower until the two Fibonacci resistance zones hold.
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