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Fibonacci

EUR/JPY – High-Probability Short Setup 1️⃣ Market Overview – Bearish Bias Confirmation EUR/JPY remains in a strong downtrend, forming lower highs and lower lows. Currently, the price is retracing into a critical Fibonacci resistance zone, making this a prime opportunity to short the pair in line with institutional sentiment and seasonality trends. 2️⃣ Fibonacci Levels – Identifying Key Resistance The Fibonacci retracement is drawn from the most recent bearish impulse. Resistance Zone: 0.5 (156.888) to 0.786 (157.107) – a high-probability rejection area. If price fails to break above this zone, a continuation to the downside is expected. Prime Seasonality Insights – Historical Data Supports the Short Bias 📊 Seasonality trends over 15 years indicate that EUR/JPY historically declines in late February and early March. 🔻 February seasonality performance: -0.7% average return 🔻 Next 3-5 day forecast: Bearish probabilities (-0.06% to -0.21%) 🔻 Seasonality prediction candles show a short-term retracement, followed by downside continuation. 💡 This aligns with the technical setup, reinforcing a short bias. 4️⃣ Retail Sentiment – Smart Money Edge 🚨 79% of retail traders are LONG on EUR/JPY – a contrarian signal for a short trade. 🔻 Institutions (Smart Money) are aggressively shorting EUR/JPY, as seen in COT data. 🔻 Commitment of Traders (COT) Report shows increased institutional short positioning. 🔻 Retail traders trapped in longs will likely get stopped out, fueling further downside. 5️⃣ Technical Confirmation – Trendline & Indicators ✅ Price is below all major EMAs (6, 24, 72, 288) on the 4-hour chart. ✅ Supertrend remains bearish on the 4-hour timeframe. ✅ A downward sloping trendline aligns with the Fibonacci resistance zone. 💡 I will wait for confirmation (rejection wick, bearish engulfing candle) before entering a short position. 6️⃣ Conclusion – Trade Plan for EUR/JPY 🔹 Bias: Bearish due to downtrend, Fibonacci resistance, seasonality, and institutional short positioning. 🔹 Trade Setup: Sell EUR/JPY at 156.88 - 157.10 (Upon rejection) Stop Loss: Above 157.26 Take Profit Targets: 156.30, 156.04, 156.00 🔹 Key Confirmation: Retail traders are trapped in longs, seasonality supports further downside, and institutions are short. 🚀 This is a prime example of how combining Seasonality, Smart Money Positioning, and Technicals can create a powerful trade setup. 📌 What’s your outlook on EUR/JPY? Let’s discuss in the comments!
Short
by LDForex_
Gold’s Rally Continues – Next ATH?Gold ( OANDA:XAUUSD ) again managed to form a new All-Time High(ATH) . Are you used to this? Gold has already managed to break the Uptrend line . But as long as Gold is above 100_SMA(1-hour) , we can hope for the continuation of the upward trend . According to the theory of Elliott waves , Gold seems to have succeeded in completing the main wave 3, so that the main wave 3 was extended . I expect Gold to start rising again after a temporary decline from the levels I charted and create a new All-Time High(ATH) . Note: If Gold can go below 100_SMA(1-hour) again, we should expect more dumps. Be sure to follow the updated ideas. Gold Analyze ( XAUUSD ), 15-minute time frame. Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open). Please follow your strategy; this is just my idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post. Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by pejman_zwin
1
XRP Bullish Setup – AB=CD Pattern on 1H Timeframe!#XRP is in a strong uptrend, showing no bearish signs, and currently forming a classic AB=CD pattern on the 1-hour timeframe. This pattern is a well-known harmonic structure that often leads to a continuation of the trend! Key Technical Insights: 🔹 AB=CD Pattern Completion: Price is approaching the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement zone. 🔹 No Bearish Signs: Momentum remains bullish, with increasing volume. 🔹 Confluence Support: The 0.618 FIB level aligns with previous demand zones, increasing the probability of a bounce. Trading Plan: Entry: Around the 0.618 FIB level, Price is 2.65 🔹 Targets: TP at 2.88 🔹 Stop-Loss: Below structure 0.5 FIB level, Price is 2.6 What do you think? Will #XRP respect the AB=CD pattern and continue higher? Drop your thoughts in the comments! Like & Follow for more high-probability trade setups!
Long
by mudusir
Levels to consider for Crude oil Futures CL1!On this video i discuss what I think is the next long/short to consider and illustrate how not to get caught up in the noise of low probability setups . Currently we are trading inside of a range between the POC and the VAH . I look back on previous highs in the chart and how we reacted at those levels and what I potentially see looking forward . My bias overall is expecting more downside but I dont marry that one bias and simply look at the PA from both sides with a focus on having a plan in the event of a move up or Down .
NYMEX:CL1!
by SJTRADESFUTURES
GBP/USD at Key Resistance: Potential Reversal or Continuation?The GBP/USD 15-minute chart indicates a strong uptrend, with price action forming a **Crab harmonic pattern**, suggesting a potential overextension. The pair has reached a key resistance zone at **1.26323**, aligning with significant Fibonacci levels, with the **Harmonic Optimal Point (HOP) at 1.26469** acting as a potential reversal area. If a pullback occurs, the first downside targets are 1.26127 and 1.25993 , while the ** 200 EMA ** below may provide further support. A sustained break above 1.26469 could signal continued bullish momentum. Traders should monitor price action for confirmation before positioning accordingly.
Short
by BeaucoupPips
1
USD/CHF - 1H Analysis & Trade Plan📊 USD/CHF - 1H Analysis & Trade Plan 🔹 Market Structure: ✅ Break of Structure (BOS) confirms a bearish trend continuation. ✅ Change of Character (ChoCH) indicates potential reversals. ✅ Fair Value Gaps (FVG) highlight imbalance zones that may get filled. 🔹 Key Levels: ✅ Resistance Zones: • 0.91441 - 0.91552 (Major resistance) • 0.91171 - 0.91228 (Lower resistance zone) • 0.90892 - 0.90933 (Reaction zone) ✅ Fibonacci Retracement Levels: • 0.382 (0.8997), 0.5 (0.9004), 0.618 (0.9010), 0.705 (0.9015), 0.786 (0.9020) 📌 Trade Idea: 🔹 Bearish bias remains valid unless price breaks 0.9020. 🔹 A rejection from FVG and Fibonacci levels could push price down to the 0.89139 - 0.89335 demand zone. 🔹 If price breaks above 0.9020, the next target could be 0.9089 - 0.9093. #FXFOREVER #USDCHF #ForexAnalysis #SmartMoney #LiquidityHunt #BOS #FVG #PriceAction
by FXFOREVER_87
XAU/USD - 1H Analysis & Trade Plan📉 XAU/USD - 1H Analysis & Trade Plan 🔹 Market Structure: ✅ Break of Structure (BOS) confirms bullish continuation. ✅ Change of Character (ChoCH) signals potential reversals. ✅ Fair Value Gaps (FVG) indicate imbalance and possible retracements. ✅ Order Blocks (OBs) marked for potential reaction zones. 🔹 Key Levels: ✅ Support Zones: 2924-2929, 2902-2905, 2872-2882, 2834-2853 ✅ Fib Retracement Levels: 0.382 (2935.84), 0.5 (2937.49), 0.618 (2943.43), 0.705 (2945.83), 0.786 (2948.37) ✅ Major Resistance: 2960 📊 Trade Plan: 🔹 Watch for a reaction at the 2924-2929 zone for a potential bounce. 🔹 If support holds, bullish move toward 2960 is likely. 🔹 If price breaks below 2902-2905, expect further downside to 2872-2882. #FXFOREVER #XAUUSD #GoldAnalysis #SmartMoney #LiquidityHunt #BOS #FVG #PriceAction
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by FXFOREVER_87
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 2/21/2025 SessionCME_MINI:NQH2025 - PR High: 22174.50 - PR Low: 22123.25 - NZ Spread: 114.75 Key scheduled economic events: 09:45 | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI - S&P Global Services PMI 10:00 | Existing Home Sales Quick peak below previous daily lows - Now advertising rotation above 22200 Session Open Stats (As of 12:55 AM 2/21) - Weekend Gap: N/A - Gap 10/30/23 +0.47% - Session Open ATR: 331.32 - Volume: 19K - Open Int: 294K - Trend Grade: Bull - From BA ATH: -1.4% (Rounded) Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges) - Long: 22667 - Mid: 21525 - Short: 19814 Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions. BA: Back Adjusted BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone NZ: Neutral Zone
CME_MINI:NQH2025
by mv3trader5
Basic Outline idea for the next week.Note- This Prediction is purely depending on Fundamentals & technical only Hi Friends my suggestion is the market can be expected to move to 1.05353 Level and come down for Liquidity grab/fag/retracement .But remember the area between 1.04251-1.03850 acts as a caution zone why ?? Its because of the fib retracement 1) If we trace from 2022 low to 2023 high This zone is the 50% zone. 2) if we take the Jan low to Jan high this zone acts as 30% zone. 3) from last week low to high this zone acts as mid for 30% as well as 50% For additional Info when ever the market is inside this range we could see high support and resistance taken place. so i would suggest to be cautious or if there is any strong fundamental the market could first resist 1.05353 and break then retest and go more higher using fundamental red folder news I wish you for a success full trading week.
Long
by shreyasflaming
1
USDJPY Wave Analysis – 20 February 2025 - USDJPY broke support zone - Likely to fall to support level 148.70 USDJPY currency pair recently broke the support zone between the support level 151.00 (which formed the daily Morning Star at the start of February) and the 50% Fibonacci correction of the previous upward impulse from September. The breakout of this support zone accelerated the active short-term impulse wave 3 – which belongs to wave (3) from January. USDJPY currency pair can be expected to fall to the next support level 148.70 (the former monthly low from December).
Short
by FxProGlobal
WLD (Worldcoin); my notes for long-termFor now, the charts and formations don't mean much. I think it will move in line with these coins, along with Ethereum and Optimism movements and the artificial intelligence category. Since these categories have been weak for a long time, WLD is also weak. There is not much to comment on. The levels of 2.8 and 7.8 are very important. In daily closings above 2.8, $7.8 and above can be tried. Long-term targets are $18 - $24 in a positive scenario. I have indicated the trend lines and levels in the chart for the negative scenario, I am following them. This is not investment advice.
by murat355555
Copper Elliott Wave Forecast: Bullish Breakout Targeting $5+Copper’s Elliott wave price structure suggests a completed contracting symmetrical triangle (ABCDE) correction, followed by the start of a five-wave impulse. The chart shows: Primary Degree Count: The rally from the $4.00 low (Wave E) marks the start of a five-wave impulse pattern. Intermediate Degree Count: Wave (i) of ((iii)) topped at $4.8346. Wave (ii) of ((iii)) is in progress, likely finding support above $4.42-4.54. Wave (iii) of ((iii)) is expected to extend toward the 1.618 Fibonacci extension level (~$5.00). Wave (v) of ((iii)) could reach the 2.618 Fibonacci extension (~$5.59). The Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows overbought conditions, suggesting a short-term correction before the next rally. COPPER'S ALTERNATE COUNT There is an alternate count we are keeping an eye on (labeled in red). The alternate count would suggest that the February 14 high was wave ((iii)) and a sideways grind is unfolding in wave ((iv)). This sideways grind would need to hold above $4.46 to remain valid. The alternate count would imply a more mature advance with less upside potential. BOTTOM LINE Copper’s Elliott Wave count suggests an impulsive rally targeting $5.00+. A corrective pullback toward $4.42-4.54 offers potential buying opportunities. Bulls remain in control unless price drops below $4.18.
FX:COPPERLong
by JWagnerFXTrader
2
EURJPY - The 0.618 Fibonacci zone acting as resistanceThe EURJPY pair is one of the most interesting assets to watch. Overall, the long-term trend has shifted from strongly bullish to neutral since the highs of July 2024. However, we can observe that each successive bullish rebound is reaching lower highs. With the ECB lowering interest rates and the recent rate hikes by the Bank of Japan, a rebalancing is gradually taking place. As a result, at best, we can expect a range-bound movement between 156.00 and 164.00 in the coming weeks, and at worst, a sustained decline in the exchange rate in favor of the yen. Holding yen long-term is not attractive from a swap perspective, but in the short term, attempting bearish rebounds is more interesting. Here, I initiated a short trade, betting on a continuation of the downtrend after the pair rebounded from the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement zone. Historically, this level is significant and acts as resistance when trends establish themselves.
Short
by Traderscope
Next Fib target is the 1.618 at 100KIf there is a consolidation here expect GETTEX:48K Pre-Halving sell off, If no sell of now, then the 1.618 is the target and possibly seeing a distribution event at that point, and possibly 32% retrace back to the 68k area. from there the next stop will be the 2.618 fib which is the at $154k yielding 123% gains from 68k. a possible sell off expected... let's see how close the money face is, which is the convergence of two trend lines that are from previous low to high events. overall, the 4.236 is expected for the session highs of this halving cycle around 240k, although this would be the lower estimate as historical cycles have far exceeded the 4.236, yet the last cycle is exactly where the top was put in and we may see more traditional fibs being respected now that big money is playing the game. BTC topped out at 1T in 2021, and may top out at 10T next, estimating a Price in the high 600ks if that happens. this chart is only intended to predict the future supports and resistances for swing trading through the next 1-2 years.
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by BrianCisco