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Fibonacci

USDCAD Wave Analysis – 6 February 2025 - USDCAD reversed from the support zone - Likely to rise to resistance level 1.4400 USDCAD currency pair recently reversed from the support zone between the pivotal support level 1.4290, which has stopped the previous corrections A, C , as can be seen below and the lower daily Bollinger Band. The upward reversal from this support zone created the daily Japanese candlestick reversal pattern Doji, which stands near the 50% Fibonacci correction of the previous upward impulse from November. Given the clear daily uptrend, USDCAD currency pair can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 1.4400.
Long
by FxProGlobal
Mexican Peso at a Key Monetary Policy MomentIn a global environment still marked by uncertainty, the Mexican peso is showing relative stability ahead of the imminent monetary policy decision by the Banco de México (Banxico). The expectation of a 50 basis points cut in the interest rate this month reflects a strategic calculation: to seize an opportunity to continue stimulating the economy while the relative exchange rate stability permits it. I personally believe that Banxico’s decision is based on two key factors. First, general inflation fell below 4% in the first half of January, levels not seen since 2021, bringing the central bank closer to its primary inflation target. Second, a one-month pause in trade tensions between Mexico and the United States has provided the peso with some relief, avoiding additional pressures that would complicate a more extensive monetary easing. I believe this is the right time for Banxico to further support growth with a more significant normalization of rates. It is important to emphasize that the rate cut contrasts with the stance of the Federal Reserve (Fed), which maintains a restrictive tone after noting in January a strong labor market and persistent inflationary pressures. This divergence, however, could eventually put pressure on the peso against the dollar. Nonetheless, Banxico seems confident that the maneuvering room gained from the recent stability of the MXN compensates for the risks. While Banxico acts, consumer confidence in Mexico fell to 46.7 points in January, its lowest level since October 2023. The deterioration in future economic outlooks (50.3 vs. 51.2 in December) and the decreased willingness to purchase durable goods (29.9 points) reveal growing pessimism. Although the perception of the current situation in households improved slightly (51.5), this data reinforces the urgency for policies that stimulate domestic consumption, aligning with the need to provide a less restrictive monetary policy environment that can drive greater economic dynamism. Beyond national borders, the postponed—though not non-existent—trade tensions and the potential escalation of protectionism in the U.S. add layers of complexity. A dollar strengthened by aggressive U.S. policies could unbalance the peso, limiting Banxico's room to maneuver. Banxico faces the challenge of stimulating an economy showing signs of fragility without triggering currency pressures in a volatile global scenario. The window of opportunity exists, but it is narrow: any shift by the Fed or changes in trade relations could considerably limit it. Banxico’s next move is not just about interest rates, but about navigating increasingly turbulent international waters. Pepperstone doesn’t represent that the material provided here is accurate, current or complete, and therefore shouldn’t be relied upon as such. The information, whether from a third party or not, isn’t to be considered as a recommendation; or an offer to buy or sell; or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security, financial product or instrument; or to participate in any particular trading strategy. It does not take into account readers’ financial situation or investment objectives. We advise any readers of this content to seek their own advice. Without the approval of Pepperstone, reproduction or redistribution of this information isn’t permitted.
by Pepperstone
PEPE price trading plan🐸 The OKX:PEPEUSDT price is moving quite nicely between the dynamic fib levels on the chart. But given that in a few hours there will be an announcement of a “fresh” Fed rate (forecast of a decrease of -0.25%), the crypto market may be volatile!) Therefore, we highlight the critical level of $0.0000184 for the CRYPTOCAP:PEPE price, from where: 🐳 if the price is kept above - growth according to the blue scenario, at least to $0.0000332 💔 in case of failure and breakdown, a protracted corrective red scenario will be activated, somewhere to around $0.0000106 What do you prefer?)
by P_S_trade
8
Bitcoin Reversal? Demand Zone Holding Strong! BTCUSD has shown a strong reaction to the Demand Zone, indicating potential bottom formation. The price has tested this level multiple times, suggesting institutional interest and a possible bullish reversal. 🔹 1.272 | Conservative Takeprofit → 116,847.33 USD (+19%) 🔹 1.618 | Most common Takeprofit after retracement → 123,783.73 USD (+26%) 🔹 2 | Strong uptrend Takeprofit → 133,358.11 USD (+36%) With a favorable risk-to-reward setup, Bitcoin could be positioned for a significant upward move. Will BTC reach these Fibonacci targets? 📈 What’s your view on this setup? Drop your thoughts in the comments! 👇
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by ProcessAndIntercept
2
BTC Fractal PredictionFacts: The orange oval shows the part of the chart I used to create the forecast. Yelllow green zones are demand FVGs and purple zones are supply. The green zone signifies the demand order block, and the zones are based on 9h TF. Fibs are based on long term levels (not drawn from renko values). *Note this is a Renko chart Opinion: If the prediction has any semblance to what will happen, it would be reasonable to suggest longs are accumulating down to maybe 88k without going too low where traders will then try to grab as much liquidity from 91-99k on the way up to sell after they push the price past ATH. A wick down to 88k, as low as even 84k could be expected here, and if the fear index continues dropping we might even see 80k being the target with a wick down to 76k. A bottom in the 70k range might result in an ATH target around 169k, while 141k would be what I think is the next top for a less extreme scenario, 123-125k being either the consolidation or retracement level for all cases. Next level after 141/169 would be the big 200k, where in most attempts at using this method of pattern prediction has shown it would very quickly retrace from. As time passes, confidence in the 73k level as final support is increasing quickly as VWAPS, ATR based supports and moving averages continue to meet and surpass that price level on longer and longer timeframes and lengths. It might require very specific circumstances along with a very coordinated selloff to cause the price to drop below 73. How the market reacts once we break our 91k support will be interesting to see as there are more new investors and crytpo derivatives this season than ever.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by sadture
Understanding Fibonacci ExtensionsUnderstanding Fibonacci Extensions Have you ever noticed that market movements often occur in repeatable patterns? Well, that’s where Fibonacci extensions come into play. Join us in this article as we dive into the world of Fibonacci extensions and discover how they can be a strong addition to your trading arsenal. A Primer on Fibonacci Ratios Fibonacci ratios originate from the Fibonacci sequence, where each number is the sum of the two preceding ones (e.g., 0, 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34). The key ratio, known as the Golden Ratio, is approximately 1.618. This is calculated by dividing a number in the sequence by its immediate predecessor (e.g., 34 ÷ 21 ≈ 1.619). Conversely, dividing a number by the next number yields approximately 0.618 (e.g., 21 ÷ 34 ≈ 0.618). In trading, these ratios are used to identify potential support and resistance levels through Fibonacci retracements and extensions: - Fibonacci Retracements. These indicate where the price might pull back within an existing trend. Common retracement levels are 23.6%, 38.2%, 50%, 61.8%, and 78.6%. They are derived from the ratios between numbers in the sequence and are applied to measure potential correction points. - Fibonacci Extensions. These project potential price targets beyond the current range. Key extension levels include 100%, 161.8%, 200%, 261.8%, and 423.6%. They are calculated by extending the Fibonacci ratios past the 100% level to anticipate where the price might move following a retracement. Note that these ratios can be expressed as either integers or percentages, e.g. 0.618 or 61.8%. What Are Fibonacci Extensions? Fibonacci extensions (also known as Fibonacci expansions or Fib extensions) are a technical analysis tool that allows traders to determine potential levels of support and resistance for an asset’s price. Like regular support and resistance levels, they are considered as areas of interest rather than where the price will turn with pinpoint precision. They’re most frequently used to set profit targets, although they can also be used to find entries. Fibonacci extensions can be applied to any market, including forex, commodities, stocks, cryptocurrencies*, and more, and work across all timeframes. While not foolproof, using the Fibonacci extension tool combined with other forms of technical analysis might be an effective way to spot potential reversal points in financial markets. Fibonacci Retracements vs. Extensions Both Fibonacci retracements and extensions are based on the Fibonacci sequence and the Golden Ratio, but they are used to measure different things in the market. The former shows support and resistance levels during a pullback from a larger move. The latter measures the potential levels of support and resistance for an asset's price after a pullback has occurred. As shown in the chart above, the Fibonacci retracement tool can be applied to identify where the price may pull back to – 50% in this scenario. Then, the Fibonacci extension tool is used to plot where the price could end up beyond this pullback. The 100% and 161.8% levels posed significant resistance, causing the price to reverse. It’s easy to see how both tools can be used in conjunction to build a strategy. Generally speaking, traders tend to enter on a pullback to one of the key retracement levels, and then take potential profits at the extension levels. However, either tool can be used to find areas suitable for entries and exits. Fib Extensions: How to Use Them in a Trading Strategy If you’re wondering how to use Fib extensions in your own trading, here are the steps you need to follow. - Click to set the first point at a major swing low if expecting bullishness or swing high if expecting bearishness. - Place the second point at a swing in the opposite direction. - Put the third point at the low of the pullback if a bullish move is expected or the high if a bearish move is expected. That’s it! You now have an idea of where price may reverse as the trend progresses, allowing you to set profit targets or plan entries. You can also double-click the tool to adjust it to your preferences, like removing certain levels and changing colours. Bullish Example In this example, we have a swing low (1) followed by a swing high (2) that makes a retracement (3). These three points are all we need to plot a Fibonacci extension. Notice that the 138.2% level didn’t hold, showing that price isn’t always guaranteed to reverse in these areas. However, the wicks and sustained moves lower at the 100% and 161.8% areas gave traders confirmation that a reversal might be inbound. Bearish Example Here, we can see that each of the three areas prompted a pullback. Some traders might not consider the 138.2% area valid to trade. However, the most common way to get around this is to look for confirmation with a break of the trend, as denoted by the dotted line between extensions. Once the price gets beyond that swing high (intermittently breaking the downtrend), traders have confirmation that what they’re looking at is likely the start of a reversal. Some traders believe that if the price closes beyond a level, it’ll continue progressing to the next area. While this can sometimes be the case, it can just as easily reverse. Here, the price briefly closed below the 161.8% level before continuing much higher. How Can You Confirm Fib Extensions? While Fibonacci extensions suggest potential areas where price movements may reverse or stall, traders often seek additional confirmation to enhance their confidence in these levels. Here are some methods traders typically use to validate Fib extension levels. - Confluence with Other Fibonacci Levels. Traders can look for alignment between Fibonacci extensions and retracements from different timeframes or price swings. This overlap may indicate a more significant level where the price could react. - Support and Resistance Zones. If a Fibonacci extension level coincides with established support or resistance areas on the chart, it can reinforce the likelihood of a market response at that point. - Candlestick Patterns. Observing specific candlestick formations, such as doji, hammer, or engulfing patterns at Fibonacci extensions, can provide insights into potential reversals or continuations. - Technical Indicators. Incorporating indicators like moving averages, RSI, or MACD can help confirm the validity of a Fibonacci extension level. For example, if the RSI indicates overbought conditions at a key extension level, traders might anticipate a pullback. - Trendlines and Chart Patterns. Aligning Fibonacci extensions with trendlines or chart patterns like the Head and Shoulders can offer additional confirmation. Traders often find that extension levels intersecting with these tools carry more significance. - Volume Analysis. An increase in trading volume near a Fibonacci extension level may suggest stronger market interest, potentially validating the importance of that level. - Multiple Timeframe Analysis. Traders might analyse Fibonacci extensions across various timeframes to identify consistent levels of interest. A level that appears significant on both charts could be considered more reliable. - Market Sentiment and News Events. While primarily technical, acknowledging fundamental factors such as economic news or market sentiment can help traders assess whether a Fibonacci extension level might hold or be surpassed. Limitations of Fibonacci Extensions Fibonacci extensions are valuable for projecting potential price targets, but they come with limitations that traders should consider. Understanding these can lead to more informed use within a trading strategy. - Lack of Confidence in Price Movements. While based on mathematical ratios, Fibonacci extensions don't account for unexpected market events like economic news or geopolitical developments that can significantly impact prices. - Subjectivity in Point Selection. The effectiveness of extension levels hinges on correctly identifying swing highs and lows. Different traders may choose varying reference points, leading to inconsistent levels and interpretations. - Ineffectiveness in Certain Market Conditions. In sideways or highly volatile markets, prices may not respect Fib extensions, reducing their reliability as indicators of support or resistance. - Conflicting Signals Across Timeframes. Extension levels vary between different timeframes, potentially causing confusion and conflicting signals in analysis and decision-making. - Overreliance on Technicals. Focusing solely on Fib extensions might cause traders to overlook other critical technical indicators or fundamental factors influencing the market. - Unnatural Price Movements. Widespread use of Fibonacci levels can lead to price reactions simply because many traders expect them, creating artificial support or resistance that may not hold. - Psychological Biases. Traders might experience confirmation bias, seeing what they expect at Fib levels, which can lead to misguided trading decisions. Making the Most of Fibonacci Extensions By now, you may have a decent understanding of what Fib extensions are and how to use them. But how do you make the most out of Fibonacci extensions? Here are two points you may consider to improve your trading strategy. - Look for confirmation. Instead of blindly setting orders at extension levels, you can look for price action confirmation that the price is starting to reverse at the area before taking potential profits or entering a position. You could do this by looking for breaks in the trend, as discussed in the example above. - Find confluence. Similarly, you can use other technical analysis tools like trendlines, indicators like moving averages, or even multiple Fibonacci extensions, to give you a better idea of how price will likely react at a level. Your Next Steps Now, it’s time to put your understanding to the test. Spend some time practising how to use Fibonacci extensions and try backtesting a few setups to see how you could get involved in a trade. Once you feel you have a solid strategy, open an FXOpen account to start using your skills in the live market. In the meantime, why not try exploring other Fibonacci-related concepts, like Fibonacci retracements and harmonic patterns? Good luck! FAQ How Can You Use Fibonacci Extensions? Fibonacci extensions help traders identify potential future support and resistance levels beyond the current price range. To use them, traders select three points: the start of a trend, its end, and the retracement point. They then apply the Fibonacci extension tool to project where the price may move following a retracement. How Should You Draw Fibonacci Extensions? The process starts with choosing the trend-based Fib extension tool in your charting software. Then, the next step is to select the swing low/high (start of the trend), then the swing high/low (end of the trend), and finally the retracement low/high. The tool will display extension levels indicating possible future price targets. What Is the Difference Between Fibonacci Retracements and Extensions? Fibonacci retracements identify potential support and resistance levels during a price pullback within an existing trend. Extensions, on the other hand, project levels beyond the current price range, indicating where the price might move after the retracement. Retracements focus on corrections; extensions focus on trend continuations. *Important: At FXOpen UK, Cryptocurrency trading via CFDs is only available to our Professional clients. They are not available for trading by Retail clients. To find out more information about how this may affect you, please get in touch with our team. Trade on TradingView with FXOpen. Consider opening an account and access over 700 markets with tight spreads from 0.0 pips and low commissions from $1.50 per lot. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Education
by FXOpen
7
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 2/6/2025 SessionCME_MINI:NQH2025 - PR High: 21775.50 - PR Low: 21749.75 - NZ Spread: 57.75 Key scheduled economic events: 08:30 | Initial Jobless Claims Holding 1400 point range since late December - Rotating back towards ATH, advertising potential break above 21970 - Value climbing above previous session high Session Open Stats (As of 12:35 AM 2/6) - Weekend Gap: -1.72% (filled) - Gap 10/30/23 +0.47% - Session Open ATR: 413.33 - Volume: 29K - Open Int: 257K - Trend Grade: Bull - From BA ATH: -2.9% (Rounded) Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges) - Long: 22667 - Mid: 21525 - Short: 19814 Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions. BA: Back Adjusted BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone NZ: Neutral Zone
CME_MINI:NQH2025Long
by mv3trader5
$SPY February 6, 2025AMEX:SPY February 6, 2025 15 Minutes. Yesterday we had 604 levels. Today for the rise 598.58 to 604.36 holding 602 levels we can expect 605-606 levels as initial target. Once 606 is held i expect 609-610 levels tomorrow or by Friday. AMEX:SPY is above all moving averages. At the moment uptrend intact as long AMEX:SPY above 598 levels being the last LL. Not for shorting today as per chart at the moment. The top of channel is around 610 levels for the day on time.
AMEX:SPYLong
by RiderTrader
2
XAU/USD Analysis – H1 Prediction for 06/02/2025 📊 Gold Price Action & Key Levels 🔸 Price hovering around 2869.70 with consolidation. 🔸 Fibonacci Resistance Levels: 0.786: 2877.63 0.618: 2873.86 0.5: 2871.22 🔸 Support Zones: 2855-2858 (First demand area) 2836-2844 (Potential liquidity grab) 2830.55-2825 (Fair Value Gap - FVG) 2812-2817 (Deeper correction zone) 📉 Bearish Scenario: If price breaks below 2865, expect a move towards 2855-2858, followed by 2836-2844. 📈 Bullish Scenario: Holding above 2868 could lead to a retest of 2873-2877 before further highs. #XAUUSD #GoldTrading #ForexAnalysis #SmartMoneyConcepts #GoldForecast #PriceAction
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by FXFOREVER_87
Elliott Wave View: Gold Miners ETF (GDX) Impulse Rally ProgressShort Term Elliott Wave View in Gold Miners ETF (GDX) suggests rally from 12.30.2024 low is in progress as an impulse. Up from 12.30.2024 low, wave 1 ended at 38.2 and dips in wave 2 ended at 36.84. Internal subdivision of wave 2 unfolded as a zigzag Elliott Wave structure. Down from wave 1, wave ((a)) ended at 37.31 and wave ((b)) ended at 37.95. Wave ((c)) lower ended at 36.83 which completed wave 2 in higher degree. The ETF has extended higher in wave 3 with subdivision as a 5 waves with extension (a nesting impulse). Up from wave 2, wave ((i)) ended at 38.16 and pullback in wave ((ii)) ended at 36.84. The ETF extended higher in wave (i) towards 39.73 and pullback in wave (ii) ended at 38.14. Up from there, wave i ended at 39.92 and wave ii ended at 39.24. Wave iii higher ended at 41.53 and pullback in wave iv ended at 40.80. Expect the ETF to end wave v of (iii), then it should pullback in wave (iv) before higher again. Near term, pullback should find support in 3, 7, or 11 swing against 36.83 low for further upside.
AMEX:GDX
by Elliottwave-Forecast
2
Nasdaq (March 2025) - NFP Week! #S1E4It is very evident that whenever there are indecisions around global trade or policies, the market tends to freeze up and spew out error codes. From the market opening on Sunday, we have been exposed the the wild, aggressive swings that follows with Trading and many gaps has appear. Do you think this has anything to do with the decision to pause the tariffs Donald Trump was planning on implementing on Mexico and Canada? Remember, the tariffs might sound positive for the strength of the dollar but US businesses will have to fork out the extra in logistics and taxes if the tariffs was to go ahead. How exposed are US consumers to price hikes? Looking forward to the UK interest rates being released today as well as NFP on friday. It'll be a WILD ride!
CME_MINI:NQH2025Long
by LegendSince