SOLUSDT: Long or Trap? Breaking Down the Setup
🔥 ** BINANCE:SOLUSDT.P ** is bouncing off the support zone, showing strength from the bulls! After a sharp dump, price held a key level and is now pushing up. The big question — is this a true reversal or just a "bearish retest" before another drop?
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🔑 **Key Levels:**
**Support:**
**171.06 USDT** — strong demand zone.
**160.23 USDT** — critical level, breaking below could trigger more downside.
**Resistance:**
**199.55 USDT** — local resistance; breaking above could accelerate movement.
**272.53 USDT** — key target for profit-taking.
**295.16 USDT** — strong supply zone; breaking above opens the door to 300 USDT+.
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🚀 **Trading Strategy:**
**Entry Point:**
- Long from **171.06 USDT** with volume confirmation.
- Conservative entry after a breakout of **199.55 USDT**.
**Stop-Loss:**
- Below **160.23 USDT** to avoid stop hunts.
**Take-Profit Targets:**
**198.45 USDT** — first target to reduce risk.
**272.53 USDT** — primary target for the bullish move.
**295.16 USDT** — extended target if the uptrend continues.
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📈 **Technical Analysis:**
Increasing volume on the bounce signals strong buyer interest.
A breakout above **199.55 USDT** confirms bullish momentum.
If price drops below **171.06 USDT**, expect a potential retest of **160.23 USDT**.
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💡 **Conclusion:**
SOLUSDT.P is showing bullish reversal signs, but without breaking **199.55 USDT**, we can't confirm a full trend shift yet. Is this just a retest before another sell-off or the start of a new uptrend? Let’s discuss! 🚀💬
Fibonacci
GBP/USD Symmetrical Triangle Setup: Bullish Breakout?Here's an analysis based on the chart:
Key Observations :
1. **Bullish Triangle Pattern:**
- A symmetrical triangle or wedge is forming, suggesting potential consolidation before a breakout.
- The upward trendline indicates possible bullish momentum as price approaches a breakout point.
2. **Price Levels:**
- Resistance: 1.24860 (shown as the 1.13 Fibonacci extension level).
- Support: Around 1.24100, where price is currently hovering near the trendline.
3. **RSI (Relative Strength Index):**
- The RSI is above 50, which leans toward bullish momentum.
- Divergence may be forming as price action creates higher lows while RSI doesn't show the same strength.
4. **Candlestick Patterns:**
- Multiple rejections around support suggest buying pressure near the trendline.
Trading Implications:
1. **Bullish Breakout Setup:**
- If price breaks above 1.24860, it could signify a continuation to higher levels, potentially targeting a Fibonacci extension level beyond 1.25.
2. **Reversal or Bearish Setup:**
- If price fails to hold the ascending trendline, expect a move downward, potentially testing 1.23900 or lower.
Time to turn around? GBPUSD"That's GBP, the price go up if it's USD" = Central Cee, 21 Savage
Looks like these two rappers may be onto something here, reaching the 1.618 resistance, we may see the dollar rise against the pound again causing GBP to continue falling.
GBPUSD has currently pierced it's way out of the trend channel, let's see how this plays out.
USDJPY → Trump crashes the market, dollar ralliesFX:USDJPY breaks downtrend structure. Monday started unexpectedly for traders with Trump's actions, which gutted localized situations not only in the forex...
The imposition of tariffs, another batch of statements about the Eurozone, BRICS, and also this: “Trump said that the Fed made the right decision last week to suspend rate cuts” produced a corresponding reaction in the market. On the back of inflation expectations, the dollar is accelerating its growth, thus provoking a rally in USDJPY.
Technically, the focus is on the resistance at 155.95 and the support of the previously broken channel, which can be tested before further growth.
Resistance levels: 155.95, 156.6
Support levels: 155.0, 153.6
The price is trying to consolidate in the buying zone, but the resistance at 155.95 is holding the price back from active strengthening. Breakdown and consolidation of the price above this area may provoke growth to the trend resistance.
Regards R. Linda!
Oil bullish potential + FibonacciNow, we start thinking about the bullish side. This morning, the oil price formed a new high for the last seven days, since last Monday. By placing Fibonacci on the chart, we see a pullback stop in the 50.0-61.8% zone. Oil has formed a higher low since Friday, and we need an impulse to move back above the EMA 200 hourly moving average to strengthen the bullish momentum. A potential first target is $76.00, then $76.80.
USDCHF H4 | FOREX BEEHey Traders,
Looking at the USD/CHF H4 chart, here's my technical analysis:
Observations:
1. Descending Channel:
- The pair is currently trading within a well-defined descending channel, indicating bearish momentum.
- The price recently touched the upper boundary of the channel and appears to be pulling back.
2. Key Levels
- Support Zone (Red Box): Around 0.8965, coinciding with the 0.50 Fibonacci retracement, acting as a strong potential demand zone.
- Resistance Zone (Red Line): Near 0.9140, where previous price reactions and the channel's upper boundary converge.
3. Potential Scenarios:
- Bullish Breakout: If the price breaks above the descending channel and clears 0.9140, it could signal a reversal to the upside.
- Bearish Continuation: If rejection continues at the upper boundary, the price may head toward the 0.8965 zone, potentially retesting the 0.50 Fibonacci level or even lower near 0.8840 (0.236 Fibonacci).
### My Thoughts:
This setup currently favors short-term bearish momentum unless a breakout above 0.9140 occurs. A sell opportunity may arise on rejection near the current level, while a clean break out of the descending channel offers a potential bullish reversal signal.
NZDUSD H4 | FOREX BEE
Hey Traders,
NZD/USD H4 Chart Analysis
The provided H4 chart for NZD/USD indicates an ascending triangle pattern, a bullish continuation pattern. However, there are two potential scenarios based on price action:
Bullish Scenario:
Key Levels to Watch:
Resistance:** 0.57341 (Fibonacci 0.5 level).
Immediate Support:** 0.56339 (Fibonacci 0.236 level).
Major Support:** Around 0.55800.
Trading Strategy:
Buy Setup: Wait for a confirmed Bull candlestick from near trendline
Sell Setup: If price breaks below the trendline and retests 0.56339 a short position towards 0.55800 is possible.
Overall, watch price action near the key levels before taking a trade.
EURUSD H4 | FOREX BEEEUR/USD H4 Chart Analysis
The H4 chart for EUR/USD shows a critical decision zone, with two possible outcomes based on price action:
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Bullish Scenario:
Breakout Above Resistance (1.04500 - 1.04600 zone): If price breaks and holds above the green resistance area, we can expect an upward move.
Target:The next major resistance is 1.06947 (Fibonacci 0.5 level).
Confluence: The ascending trendline (blue) suggests buyers are still in control unless broken.
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Bearish Scenario:
Break Below Trendline & Support (1.04242 - 1.04000): If price fails to break above resistance and drops below the trendline, we could see a reversal.
Target: A breakdown could lead price towards the 1.02500 demand zone (red).
Confluence: Trendline breakdown + retest would confirm further downside.
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Key Levels to Watch:
Resistance Zone: 1.04500 - 1.04600 (Breakout confirmation required for bullish continuation).
Support Zone:1.04242 - 1.04000 (Potential breakdown zone).
Major Downside Target:1.02500 (Demand zone from previous price action).
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Trading Strategy:
Bullish Entry: Wait for a break and retest above 1.04600 before entering long.
Bearish Entry: If price breaks below trendline and retests 1.04242, shorting towards 1.02500 is a possibility.
Conclusion:
- The trend is bullish as long as the price holds above the trendline and 1.04242 support.
- If price fails to break resistance, a reversal is likely.
- Watch for confirmations before entering trades.
Bajaj Finserv: Preparing for a Big Move! 🚀 Bajaj Finserv: Preparing for a Big Move! 🚀
📍 CMP: ₹1798
📉 Stop Loss: ₹1615
🎯 Target: ₹2025 | ₹2500
🔹 Key Insights:
✅ Rounding Bottom Formation: Neckline at ₹2025—confirmation above this level could unlock strong upside potential.
✅ Channel Trading: The stock is moving within a well-defined upward channel.
✅ Macro Factor: Potential RBI rate cuts could act as a major catalyst.
✅ Strategy: Staggered entry to manage risk in a volatile market.
⚠️ Risk Management: Strict adherence to stop loss at ₹1615 is crucial.
📉 Disclaimer: As a non-SEBI registered analyst, I recommend conducting thorough research or seeking advice from financial professionals before making investment decisions.
#BajajFinserv #TechnicalAnalysis #BreakoutStrategy #SwingTrading #StockMarket
GBP/USD Wave Count Invalidated – Is Wave 3 About to Extend?GBP/USD has entered Wave 1 territory, invalidating the previous Elliott Wave count. Now, all signs point to a possible extended Wave 3, which could drive a strong trend move! 📉📈 Will the momentum continue? What are your views? Stay ahead with expert wave analysis! 🚀 #Forex #ElliottWave #GBPUSD
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 2/3/2025 SessionCME_MINI:NQH2025
- PR High: 21200.00
- PR Low: 20943.00
- NZ Spread: 574.5
Key scheduled economic events:
09:45 | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
10:00 | ISM Manufacturing PMI
ISM Manufacturing Prices
Another wide weekend gap, setting stage for expected excitement for the week
- Touch of 21000 long-term inventory
- Auctioning inside nearly 500 point wick from Jan 27
Session Open Stats (As of 12:45 AM 2/3)
- Weekend Gap: -1.72% (open < 21200)
- Gap 10/30/23 +0.47%
- Session Open ATR: 436.60
- Volume: 83K
- Open Int: 255K
- Trend Grade: Bull
- From BA ATH: -6.4% (Rounded)
Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges)
- Long: 22667
- Mid: 21525
- Short: 19814
Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions.
BA: Back Adjusted
BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone
NZ: Neutral Zone
GBPUSDHey Traders, what you think of this trade?
Price had 61.8% retracement.
Will it Break the High and go bullish or Low and bearish. Think in probabilities.
My analysis on GBPUSD Buy with a micro lot for Long till 1.3000, Strict Risk 1:3.
Notes for Success:
Timeframes Matter: Align entry/exit with higher-timeframe trends.
Adapt: Adjust targets if volatility spikes (e.g., news events).
Disclaimer: Always include “Not financial advice. Trade at your own risk.”
Comment your analysis below. Thank you
AARTI INDUSTRIES : Potential Bounce From Long Term Support!!🚀 Aarti Industries: Potential Bounce from Long-Term Support! 🚀
📍 CMP: ₹466
📉 Stop Loss: ₹385
🎯 Target: ₹530 | ₹660
🔹 Key Insights:
✅ Fibonacci Support at 61.8% on the long-term chart.
✅ Sector Strength: Specialty chemicals & CDMO sector showing positive momentum.
✅ Strategy: Staggered entry to manage risk in a volatile market.
✅ Long-Term Swing Trade: Positioning for monthly gains.
⚠️ Risk Management: Stop loss is big—strict discipline is key!
📉 Disclaimer: As a non-SEBI registered analyst, I recommend conducting thorough research or seeking advice from financial professionals before making investment decisions.
#AartiIndustries #TechnicalAnalysis #SwingTrading #InvestmentOpportunities #FibonacciSupport #SpecialtyChemicals
A decline in EURUSD
EURUSD starts the new week with a gap of over 100 pips.
The US is set to impose tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China.
The market reaction is a shift away from risk, leading to the sell-off of almost everything and a surge in USD buying.
This suggests that the bearish trend in EURUSD on the H4 timeframe will continue.
At the current levels, there are no favorable risk-reward ratios for selling.
Watch how the price reacts to the previous low and whether a correction occurs before the next drop.
Probabilistic RealmI remember taking the CMT exam, where one question referenced the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH), which asserts that price action is purely random. To avoid losing points, I had to select “random” as the correct answer, despite knowing that market behavior is far more structured than EMH suggests. Despite of passing I still won't ever agree that market is random.
Prices are neither random nor deterministic. Market fluctuations follow a chaotic structure, but chaos is not the same as randomness. Chaos operates within underlying patterns and scaling, whereas randomness lacks any order or predictability. Although chaos makes predictions difficult, keep in mind that the universe is not random— effects still follow causes in continuity . No matter how chaotic a system may seem, it always follows a trajectory toward a certain point.
For example, in Lorenz’s model of chaos, the trajectory formed a pattern resembling the wings of a butterfly. Understanding these patterns of chaos has practical applications. In the market, even a slight fluctuation can trigger irreversible changes, reinforcing the idea that we cannot rely on absolute forecasts— only probabilities .
The market is not necessarily a reflection of the economy; rather, it reflects participants’ feelings about the “economy.” The human emotional component drives the uncertainty and chaos, making it essential to visualize price dynamics exclusively through "systematic" lens.
Market Structure Is Self-Referential
Markets move in proportion to their own size, not in fixed amounts. Price is arbitrary, but percentage is universal – A $10 move on Bitcoin at $100 is not the same as a $10 move at $100,000. Percentage metrics reflects this natural scaling and allows comparability across assets and timeframes – A 50% swing in 2011 holds similar structural significance to a 50% swing in 2024, despite price differences. Using log scale is a must in unified fractal analysis.
Percentage swings quantify the intensity of collective emotions—fear, panic, euphoria—within market cycles. Since markets are driven by crowd psychology, percentage changes act as a unit of measurement for emotional extremes rather than just price fluctuations. After all it's the % that make people worry..
The magnitude of percentage swings encodes emotional energy, shaping the complexity of future market behavior. This means that larger past emotional extremes leave deeper imprints on market structure, influencing the trajectories future trends.
The inverse relationship between liquidity and psychology of masses partially explains the market’s fractured movements leading to reversals. In bullish trends, abundant liquidity fosters structured price behavior, allowing trends to develop smoothly. In contrast, during bearish conditions, fear-driven liquidity contraction disrupts market stability, resulting in erratic price swings. This dynamic highlights how shifting sentiment can amplify price distortions, causing reactions that are often disproportionate to fundamental changes.
PROBABILISTIC REALM
Rather than viewing fluctuations as a sequence of independent events, price action unfolds as a probabilistic wave shaped by market emotions. Each oscillation (outcome) is relative to historical complexity, revealing the deep interconnectedness of the entire chart that embodies the “2-Polar Gravity of Prices.”
Fibonacci numbers found in the Mandelbrot set emphasizes a concept of order in chaos. The golden ratio (Phi) acts as a universal constant, imposing order on what appears to be a chaotic. This maintains fractal coherence across all scales, proving that price movements do not follow arbitrary patterns but instead move relative to historic rhythm.
The reason why I occasionally have been referring to concepts from Quantum Mechanics because it best illustrates the wave of probability and probabilistic realm of chaos in general. Particularly the Schrodinger's wave equation that shows probability distributions. Key intersections in Fibonacci-based structures function as "quantum" nodes, areas of market confluence where probability densities increase. These intersections act as attractors or (and) repellers, influencing price movement based on liquidity and market sentiment. Similar to Probability Distribution in QM.
Intersections of Fibonacci channels reveal the superposition of real psychological levels, where collective market perception aligns with structural price dynamics. These points act as probabilistic zones where traders’ decisions converge, influencing reversals, breakouts, or trend continuations. Don’t expect an immediate reversal at a Fibonacci level—expect probability of reversal to increase with each crossing.
To prove that Efficient Market Hypothesis is wrong about prices being random, I'd go back to a very distant past from current times. For example, price fell 93% from 2011 ATH, reversed and established 2013 ATH.
Using a tool "Fibonacci Channels" to interconnect those 3 coordinates reveals that markets move within its fractal-based timing derived from direction.
If prices were random, this would have never happened.
The bottomline is that viewing current price relative to history is crucial because markets operate within a structured, evolving framework where proportions of past movements shape future probabilities. Price action is not isolated—it emerges from a continuous interaction between historical trends as phases of cycles, and liquidity shifts. By analyzing price within its full historical context , we can differentiate between temporary fluctuations and meaningful structural shifts justified by the fractal hierarchy. This approach helps identify whether price is expanding, contracting, or aligning with larger fractal cycles. Without referencing historical complexity, there is a risk misinterpreting patterns from regular TA, overreacting to short-term noise, and overlooking the deeper probabilistic structure that governs price behavior.
BTCUSDT IMPORTANT PRICE LEVEL BTCUSD currently formed an inside bearish candle and the daily ADL is moving horizontally (possible Distribution). The bullish scenario is to grab liquidity and continue the uptrend and the bearish scenario is to continue its decline toward the OB and balance multiple FVG blocks . If the daily close is outside the channel and below the 50% level then the price will have a higher probability to decline deeper but if the price touches the 50% level and grab liquidity and form an IFC candle then the up trend will have a higher probability to continue .
The Weekly/Daily/4H market structure are still in a strong uptrend
Good LUck
Clear Short bias on NQ I was about to post this earlier but was quite busy, anyways I have my targets set and bias determined, last week has shown some weakness by the moment the markets closed as we have received the strong short reaction from the median of the bearish breaker.
We have also opened with significant NWOG which I expect to be partially retraced and use it as the range to be positioned short, however, not thoughtless. I will be looking after this range because the retracement levels will tell us of the following dynamic, we can surely surge now and breakdown to the sellside but this will be very bearish and weakness signal which I believe we are unlikely to see unless there is some gigantic manipulation coming in which will drown the markets down.
I expect the level of 20700 to be swept after which I will look at the price action dynamic to determine the future direction