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Fibonacci

XRP Is Quiet—But This Calm Is Deceptive!Yello Paradisers—have you noticed how #XRP isn't on anyone’s radar right now? It’s not trending, no one’s hyping it, and to many, it’s just another slow mover. But here’s the thing: this type of silence often comes before the real storm, and the technical are quietly lining up. 💎#XRPUSDT is seeing now a period of consolidation The 1D bullish trend structure has been broken, and since then, price has entered into a tightening consolidation phase. While this may seem like indecision, it’s more likely a preparation for a potential high-probability upside expansion. 💎Price is now hovering just above the 0.786 Fibonacci level (~$2.25), which has started acting as a soft support. This is not a level to blindly trust, but one to monitor for reactions. If price manages to hold here, the next high-probability target lies at the short-term resistance around $2.5917, followed by major resistance at $2.9480, which aligns with a broader liquidity zone. 💎One key factor to keep in mind: the descending trendline liquidity has not been swept for a long time. That uncollected liquidity still sits just overhead, and markets usually don’t leave such inefficiencies behind forever. A spike toward that zone becomes increasingly probable the longer we range here. 💎At the same time, the MTF EMA on the daily chart is acting as a soft dynamic resistance, pushing the price down gradually. This setup increases the probability that we may see another touch of the 0.786 level. If that fails to hold decisively, the next likely area of interest will be the major support zone around $2.00. 💎Still, that major support remains unbroken and continues to act as a probability-backed structure for potential bullish defense. Until we get a clean daily candle close below $1.791 (invalidation level), this entire zone remains technically favorable for a potential reversal or liquidity sweep to the upside. We are playing it safe right now, Paradisers. If you want to be consistently profitable, you need to be extremely patient and always wait only for the best, highest probability trading opportunities. MyCryptoParadise iFeel the success🌴
Long
by MyCryptoParadise
6
USD/JPY Battle Lines Drawn at Key Support- CPI on TapUSD/JPY plunged 4.4% into the close of May- The bears have been unable to break the 2021 original slope line, and the immediate focus is on a breakout of near-term range above support. Initial weekly resistance is now eyed with the May high-week close (HWC) / 61.8% retracement of the May decline at 145.63-146.15- a breach / weekly close above this level would be needed to suggest a larger rebound is underway. Subsequent resistance objectives eyed at the December low / May high at 148.65 and the 52-week moving average (currently ~150.08). Ultimately a weekly close above the 61.8% retracement of the yearly range / 2022 & 2023 highs at 151.62/95 would be needed o threaten resumption of the broader multi-year uptrend in USD/JPY. Weekly support rests with the yearly low-week close (LWC) at 143.68 with a close below the 2021 slope needed to fuel another run at key support (multi-year bullish invalidation) at the yearly lows near 139.58-140.49- a region defined by the December 2023 & 2024 lows and the 61.8% retracement of the 2023 advance. Look for a larger reaction there IF reached. Subsequent support objective seen at the 100% extension of the 2024 decline / July 2023 swing low around 136.51-137.24. Bottom line: USD/JPY is trading just above multi-year uptrend support with a tight-range in view early in the month. From a trading standpoint, the immediate focus is on a breakout of the 143.68-146.15 range for guidance here with the yearly downtrend vulnerable while above the 2021 trendline. Look for the breakout in the days ahead. -MB
by FOREXcom
1
U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) Weekly 2025Summary: The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has corrected down to the key 38.60% Fibonacci retracement zone and is currently showing signs of a potential bullish reversal, bolstered by a clear hidden bullish divergence on the MACD. This may signal a renewed rally toward key upside targets, especially if the 93.3–99.9 support Zone holds. Chart Context: Current Price: 98.864 Key Fib Support: 38.60% @ 99.906, 48.60% @ 93.310, 61.80% @ 87.476 Support Zone: 93.3–99.9 USD Hidden Bullish Divergence: Observed both in 2021 and now again in 2025 on the MACD Trendline Support: Long-term ascending trendline holding since 2011 Fib Extension Targets (Trend-Based): TP1: 115.000 TP2: 120.000 TP3: 126.666 Key Technical Observations: Fibonacci Confluence: DXY is bouncing from a strong Fib cluster between 93.310 and 99.906, historically acting as a reversal zone. Hidden Bullish Divergence: Suggests potential upside despite price weakness. Downtrend Retest: Price may revisit 93.3–87.4 before confirming full reversal. Breakout Pathway: Green dashed arrows outline the likely recovery trajectory toward 114–126 range. Indicators: MACD: Showing hidden bullish divergence and potential signal crossover. Trendline Support: Holding intact from 2021 low. Fib Levels: Used for retracement and trend-based extension. Fundamental Context: Interest Rate Outlook: If U.S. inflation remains controlled and Fed signals future hikes or sustained high rates, DXY strength may persist. Global Liquidity & Recession Risk: If risk aversion returns, the dollar may rise as a safe haven. Geopolitical Risks: Conflicts, trade tensions, or BRICS dedollarization efforts may create volatility. Our Recent research suggests the Fed may maintain higher-for-longer rates due to resilient labor markets and sticky core inflation. This supports bullish USD bias unless macro shifts rapidly. Why DXY Could Continue Strengthening: Robust U.S. economic performance & monetary policy divergence U.S. GDP growth (~2.7% in 2024) outpaces developed peers (~1.7%), supporting stronger USD The Fed maintains restrictive rates (4.25–4.50%), while the ECB pivots to easing, widening the policy and yield gap . Inflation resilience and Fed hawkishness Labor markets remain tight, keeping inflation “sticky” and delaying expected rate cuts; market-implied cuts for 2025 have been pushed into 2026 Fed officials (e.g. Kugler) emphasize ongoing tariff-driven inflation, suggesting rates will stay elevated. Safe-haven and yield-seeking capital flows With global risks, capital favors USD-denominated assets for yield and stability Why the Dollar Might Face Headwinds Fiscal expansion & trade uncertainty Ballooning U.S. deficits (~$3.3 trn new debt) and erratic tariff policy undermine confidence in USD Wall Street’s consensus bearish position. Major banks largely expect a weaker dollar through 2025–26. However, this crowded bearish sentiment poses a risk of a sharp rebound if data surprises occur barons Tariff policy risks Trump's new tariffs could dampen dollar demand—yet if perceived as fiscal stimulus, they could unexpectedly buoy the USD . Synthesis for Our Biases A bullish DXY thesis is well-supported by: Economic and policy divergence (U.S. growth + Fed vs. peers). Hawkish Fed commentary and sticky inflation. Safe-haven capital inflows. Conversely, risks include: Deteriorating fiscal/trade dynamics. Potential Fed pivot once inflation shows clear decline. A consensus that could trigger a short squeeze or reversal if overstretched. Philosophical / Narrative View: The dollar remains the world’s dominant reserve currency. Periodic dips often act as strategic re-accumulation phases for institutional capital—especially during global macro uncertainty. A return toward 120+ reflects this persistent demand for USD liquidity and safety. Bias & Strategy Implication: 1. Primary Bias: Bullish, contingent on support at 93.3–99.9 holding. 2. Risk Scenario: Breakdown below 93.3 invalidates bullish thesis and targets 87.4–80 zones. Impact on Crypto & Gold and its Correlation and Scenarios: Historically, DXY has had an inverse correlation to both gold and crypto markets. When DXY strengthens, liquidity tends to rotate into dollar-denominated assets and away from risk-on trades like crypto and gold. When DXY weakens, it typically acts as a tailwind for both Bitcoin and gold. Correlation Coefficients: DXY vs. Gold: ≈ -0.85 (strong inverse correlation) DXY vs. TOTAL (crypto market cap): ≈ -0.72 (moderate to strong inverse correlation) Scenario 1: DXY Rallies toward 115–126 then, Expect gold to correct or stagnate, especially if yields rise. Crypto likely to pull back or remain suppressed unless specific bullish catalysts emerge (e.g., ETF flows or tech adoption). Scenario 2: DXY ranges between 93–105 then Gold may consolidate or form bullish continuation patterns. Then Crypto may see selective strength, particularly altcoins, if BTC.D declines. Scenario 3: DXY falls below 93 and toward 87 Then Gold likely to rally, possibly challenging all-time highs. Crypto could enter a major bull run, led by Bitcoin and followed by altcoins, fueled by increased liquidity and lower opportunity cost of holding non-USD assets. Understanding DXY’s direction provides valuable insight for portfolio positioning in macro-sensitive assets. Notes & Disclaimers: This analysis reflects a technical interpretation of the DXY index and is not financial advice. Market conditions may change based on unexpected macroeconomic events, Fed policy, or geopolitical developments.
TVC:DXYLong
by BitonGroup
Nasdaq-100 (NDX) Weekly Chart 2025 Chart Context This weekly timeframe analysis of the Nasdaq-100 Index (NDX) forms a key pillar in our 2025 macro analysis series. Following the breakout structure seen in TOTAL, TOTAL2, BTC.D, and US10Y, this chart utilizes 2 Fibonacci tools (1 trend-based extensions and 1 retracement) to project potential corrective and expansion scenarios. Fibonacci Tools Used: Fibonacci Retracement : Applies to the recent smaller swing to determine micro retracement zones and cluster supports. 0=20674 and 100=10504 Trend-Based Fibonacci Extension: Drawn using a three-leg structure (point A= 3993 to B=16724 to C10504) to forecast upside targets beyond ATH. All take-profit (TP) levels: TP1 (~23,400), TP2 (~26,700), and TP3 (~30,344.49)—are located at confluence zones where Fibonacci levels from different tools align, reinforcing their validity and strength. There is a 4TP above all the Visible TPs Key price references: 0% retracement: ~20,674.71 Next Resistance ~23,400 (confluence of extensions and psychological resistance) Projected TPs: 1TP=~23,400, 2TP=~26,700, 3TP=~30,344.49, 4TP=44000 Support/Resistance: Red zone: ~16,700–18,300 (historical S/R and correction target and Fib Confluences) Resistance zone: ~23,000–23,400 , 22000(ATH area) Key Technical Observations: Fibonacci Retracement from ~20674 to ~15732 marks the initial corrective range. Trend-Based Extensions forecast: TP1 (~23,400): First breakout resistance TP2 (~26,700): Medium-term expansion zone TP3 (~30,344): Long-term target if macro tailwinds persist Scenario Pathways: Bullish Continuation: Breaks above ATH to reach TP2/TP3 Healthy Correction: Pullback to ~20,600 or deeper ~18,300 before resumption Deep Correction: Revisits ~16,700 zone if macro environment deteriorates Fundamental Context: Tech Stocks & Economic Sentiment: NDX is often the first to move during liquidity expansions. Its performance signals risk-on behavior across global equity markets. Rate Cuts in 2025: With anticipated Fed rate cuts, tech stocks are primed for inflows. Forward earnings valuations rise, justifying extended upside in high-beta tech. AI Boom & Earnings Growth: Nasdaq is heavily weighted toward AI, cloud, and semiconductors—sectors expected to lead earnings surprises. NDX Influence on Gold and Crypto When NDX rallies: Crypto: Risk appetite improves. Capital rotation flows into altcoins and layer-1 assets. Bitcoin: Often sees parallel inflows, especially during strong tech rallies (e.g., 2020). TOTAL & TOTAL3: Begin breakout patterns if NDX continues to surge. Gold: May stall or correct as investors favor risk assets. However, gold still holds due to macro hedging and real yield pressures. When NDX corrects: Crypto: Volatility spikes. Altcoins bleed faster. Bitcoin: Short-term dip but may decouple if viewed as digital gold. Gold: Benefits from flight-to-safety behavior. US10Y: Often reacts inversely to NDX moves—used for confirmation. Search Highlights (2024–2025): Institutions view NDX correction as signal to rotate into commodities (incl. gold). Cross-market correlations show NDX peaks often precede crypto mini-rallies. De-risking from NDX often triggers gold strength, especially in geopolitical or inflationary backdrops. Bias & Strategy Implication Primary Bias: Bullish Expecting upside continuation to 26,700–30,000 zone Multiple correction opportunities are present even during rally Strategic Actions: Monitor for correction to yellow/red zones for accumulation Use NDX behavior as leading macro signal for crypto rotations Watch resistance at 23,400 closely; breakout confirms trend extension Time Horizon Short-Term (1–2 months): Watch for breakout or correction to ~20,600–18,300 Mid-Term (3–6 months): Probable test of ~26,700 Long-Term (6–12 months): Potential expansion to ~30,344.49
NASDAQ:NDXLong
by BitonGroup
2
Bitcoin’s Final Wave & Time Reversal Zone _ New ATH Loading?Today, I want to analyze Bitcoin ( BINANCE:BTCUSDT ) on the weekly time frame and answer these questions : Can Bitcoin create a new All-time High(ATH) or not!? At what price range can Bitcoin's uptrend end!? When can we expect the uptrend to end!? Please stay with me. Bitcoin appears to have managed to break the Resistance lines , although we saw a fake break a few months ago , and it also appears to have a Hammer Candlestick Pattern in the previous weekly candle , which could signal the completion of Bitcoin's pullback to the Resistance lines(broken). In terms of time , if we want to analyze the Bitcoin chart and look at Bitcoin's past, in general, the months of June(Average=-0.13%/Median=+2.20%) and especially July(Average=+7.56%/Median=+8.90%) have been among the most productive months for Bitcoin , and the months of August(Average=+1.75%/Median=-8.04%) and September(Average=-3.77%/Median=-4.35%) were the months when Bitcoin had a correction . Technical analysis tools show the end of the upward trend and the beginning of Bitcoin's correction at the Time Reversal Zone(TRZ=June 23 to August 4) . In terms of Elliott Wave theory , Bitcoin appears to be completing the main wave 5 , as the main wave 3 was extended . I expect Bitcoin to trend higher(+10%) in the coming weeks and create a new ATH . New ATH could be created in the Potential Reversal Zone(PRZ) and TRZ , and then we can wait for the start of the main correction . What do you think about Bitcoin’s future movement? Can Bitcoin create a new ATH? When and at what price? Note: If Bitcoin falls below $100,000, we should expect further declines. Please respect each other's ideas and express them politely if you agree or disagree. Bitcoin Analyze (BTCUSDT), weekly time frame. Be sure to follow the updated ideas. Do not forget to put a Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open). Please follow your strategy and updates; this is just my Idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post. Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
Long
by pejman_zwin
33
GOLD → Hunt for liquidity ahead of continued correctionFX:XAUUSD is strengthening due to uncertainty while the dollar consolidates. Amid heightened volatility, a retest of the 3340 liquidity zone may form, and if buyers fail to keep the price above this zone, gold may form a correction Demand for the dollar is supported by the rise in USD/JPY after soft comments on interest rates by Bank of Japan Governor Ueda. Gold is responding with a correction. Traders remain cautious ahead of the outcome of the second day of trade talks between the US and China in London. Donald Trump confirmed that dialogue with Beijing is continuing, but key differences remain. Investors are also awaiting US inflation data (CPI), which could determine the further dynamics of the dollar and gold. Meanwhile, inflation expectations in the US fell from 3.6% to 3.2% in May. Technically, gold broke the structure and confirmed key resistance during the correction. A hunt for liquidity is possible before the decline continues towards the key target of 3275. Resistance levels: 3340, 3361 Support levels: 3301, 3275 The price is forming a new trading range of 3340 - 3301 (3294). Before declining, especially if the fundamental background changes to positive as negotiations progress, gold may test the liquidity zone of 3340 and form a false breakout, which will trigger a continuation of the correction to 3275. Best regards, R. Linda!
FX:XAUUSDShort
by RLinda
15
Gold is expected to continue to fall to 3280 or even 3250In the short term, the operation of gold is completely in line with my expectations. I clearly pointed out yesterday that gold will encounter resistance in the 3330-3340 area and will at least retest the area around 3315-3305 again. At present, gold has rebounded slightly after retesting the area around 3302 and is trading around 3309. According to the strength of yesterday's rebound, gold did not effectively break through the 3300-3340 area. Gold is still weak in the short term, and the head and shoulders top structure is constructed in the 3328-3338-3328 position area in the short term, which suppresses gold to a certain extent and limits the rebound space of gold. After multiple tests, the area around 3300 may be more conducive to being broken. After gold has been under pressure and fallen many times, the current short-term resistance area has been reduced to the 3310-3320 area; so I think gold still has a good downward space in the short term, which may continue to 3280, or even around 3250. So for short-term trading, I think it is possible to consider continuing to short gold.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Steffen_Schade