Fibonacci
MMTC LTD Inverse H&S Breakout with Wave 3 PotentialMMTC is showcasing a clean Inverse Head & Shoulders breakout with price already retesting the neckline as support, followed by a strong bounce.
We’re now tracking Wave 3 development, with a projected target near ₹416.35, slightly above the classical H&S measured move.
The structure is well-defined and offers a favorable setup for both traders and positional investors.
Keep it on watch as momentum is building.
ADBE watch $387.21/97: Key Resistance to the Recovery WaveADBE has been struggling to paint a bottom.
Despite what AI could do, revenues not rising.
About to hit major resistance at $387.21-387.97
It is PROBABLE that we get a dip from it.
It is PLAUSIBLE that it will paint a local top.
It is POSSIBLE to Break-n-Retest to continue.
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U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) Weekly 2025Summary:
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has corrected down to the key 38.60% Fibonacci retracement zone and is currently showing signs of a potential bullish reversal, bolstered by a clear hidden bullish divergence on the MACD. This may signal a renewed rally toward key upside targets, especially if the 93.3–99.9 support Zone holds.
Chart Context:
Current Price: 98.864
Key Fib Support: 38.60% @ 99.906, 48.60% @ 93.310, 61.80% @ 87.476
Support Zone: 93.3–99.9 USD
Hidden Bullish Divergence: Observed both in 2021 and now again in 2025 on the MACD
Trendline Support: Long-term ascending trendline holding since 2011
Fib Extension Targets (Trend-Based):
TP1: 115.000
TP2: 120.000
TP3: 126.666
Key Technical Observations:
Fibonacci Confluence: DXY is bouncing from a strong Fib cluster between 93.310 and 99.906, historically acting as a reversal zone.
Hidden Bullish Divergence: Suggests potential upside despite price weakness.
Downtrend Retest: Price may revisit 93.3–87.4 before confirming full reversal.
Breakout Pathway: Green dashed arrows outline the likely recovery trajectory toward 114–126 range.
Indicators:
MACD: Showing hidden bullish divergence and potential signal crossover.
Trendline Support: Holding intact from 2021 low.
Fib Levels: Used for retracement and trend-based extension.
Fundamental Context:
Interest Rate Outlook: If U.S. inflation remains controlled and Fed signals future hikes or sustained high rates, DXY strength may persist.
Global Liquidity & Recession Risk: If risk aversion returns, the dollar may rise as a safe haven.
Geopolitical Risks: Conflicts, trade tensions, or BRICS dedollarization efforts may create volatility.
Our Recent research suggests the Fed may maintain higher-for-longer rates due to resilient labor markets and sticky core inflation. This supports bullish USD bias unless macro shifts rapidly.
Why DXY Could Continue Strengthening:
Robust U.S. economic performance & monetary policy divergence
U.S. GDP growth (~2.7% in 2024) outpaces developed peers (~1.7%), supporting stronger USD
The Fed maintains restrictive rates (4.25–4.50%), while the ECB pivots to easing, widening the policy and yield gap .
Inflation resilience and Fed hawkishness
Labor markets remain tight, keeping inflation “sticky” and delaying expected rate cuts; market-implied cuts for 2025 have been pushed into 2026
Fed officials (e.g. Kugler) emphasize ongoing tariff-driven inflation, suggesting rates will stay elevated.
Safe-haven and yield-seeking capital flows
With global risks, capital favors USD-denominated assets for yield and stability
Why the Dollar Might Face Headwinds
Fiscal expansion & trade uncertainty
Ballooning U.S. deficits (~$3.3 trn new debt) and erratic tariff policy undermine confidence in USD
Wall Street’s consensus bearish position.
Major banks largely expect a weaker dollar through 2025–26. However, this crowded bearish sentiment poses a risk of a sharp rebound if data surprises occur
barons
Tariff policy risks
Trump's new tariffs could dampen dollar demand—yet if perceived as fiscal stimulus, they could unexpectedly buoy the USD .
Synthesis for Our Biases
A bullish DXY thesis is well-supported by:
Economic and policy divergence (U.S. growth + Fed vs. peers).
Hawkish Fed commentary and sticky inflation.
Safe-haven capital inflows.
Conversely, risks include:
Deteriorating fiscal/trade dynamics.
Potential Fed pivot once inflation shows clear decline.
A consensus that could trigger a short squeeze or reversal if overstretched.
Philosophical / Narrative View:
The dollar remains the world’s dominant reserve currency. Periodic dips often act as strategic re-accumulation phases for institutional capital—especially during global macro uncertainty. A return toward 120+ reflects this persistent demand for USD liquidity and safety.
Bias & Strategy Implication:
1. Primary Bias: Bullish, contingent on support at 93.3–99.9 holding.
2. Risk Scenario: Breakdown below 93.3 invalidates bullish thesis and targets 87.4–80 zones.
Impact on Crypto & Gold and its Correlation and Scenarios:
Historically, DXY has had an inverse correlation to both gold and crypto markets. When DXY strengthens, liquidity tends to rotate into dollar-denominated assets and away from risk-on trades like crypto and gold. When DXY weakens, it typically acts as a tailwind for both Bitcoin and gold.
Correlation Coefficients:
DXY vs. Gold: ≈ -0.85 (strong inverse correlation)
DXY vs. TOTAL (crypto market cap): ≈ -0.72 (moderate to strong inverse correlation)
Scenario 1: DXY Rallies toward 115–126 then, Expect gold to correct or stagnate, especially if yields rise. Crypto likely to pull back or remain suppressed unless specific bullish catalysts emerge (e.g., ETF flows or tech adoption).
Scenario 2: DXY ranges between 93–105 then Gold may consolidate or form bullish continuation patterns. Then Crypto may see selective strength, particularly altcoins, if BTC.D declines.
Scenario 3: DXY falls below 93 and toward 87 Then Gold likely to rally, possibly challenging all-time highs. Crypto could enter a major bull run, led by Bitcoin and followed by altcoins, fueled by increased liquidity and lower opportunity cost of holding non-USD assets.
Understanding DXY’s direction provides valuable insight for portfolio positioning in macro-sensitive assets.
Notes & Disclaimers:
This analysis reflects a technical interpretation of the DXY index and is not financial advice. Market conditions may change based on unexpected macroeconomic events, Fed policy, or geopolitical developments.
CDNS watch $325.10: Golden Genesis Fib ceiling for over 2 yearsCDNS has topped here many times over the last 2 years.
Golden Genesis fibs are massive landmarks for any asset.
This one has marked THE TOP for over 2 years thus far.
It is PROBABLE that we "Orbit" this a few times.
It is POSSIBLE that we reject for another top.
It is PLAUSIBLE to Break and run to new ATH.
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Nasdaq-100 (NDX) Weekly Chart 2025 Chart Context
This weekly timeframe analysis of the Nasdaq-100 Index (NDX) forms a key pillar in our 2025 macro analysis series. Following the breakout structure seen in TOTAL, TOTAL2, BTC.D, and US10Y, this chart utilizes 2 Fibonacci tools (1 trend-based extensions and 1 retracement) to project potential corrective and expansion scenarios.
Fibonacci Tools Used:
Fibonacci Retracement : Applies to the recent smaller swing to determine micro retracement zones and cluster supports.
0=20674 and 100=10504
Trend-Based Fibonacci Extension: Drawn using a three-leg structure (point A= 3993 to B=16724 to C10504) to forecast upside targets beyond ATH.
All take-profit (TP) levels: TP1 (~23,400), TP2 (~26,700), and TP3 (~30,344.49)—are located at confluence zones where Fibonacci levels from different tools align, reinforcing their validity and strength.
There is a 4TP above all the Visible TPs
Key price references:
0% retracement: ~20,674.71
Next Resistance ~23,400 (confluence of extensions and psychological resistance)
Projected TPs:
1TP=~23,400,
2TP=~26,700,
3TP=~30,344.49,
4TP=44000
Support/Resistance:
Red zone: ~16,700–18,300 (historical S/R and correction target and Fib Confluences)
Resistance zone: ~23,000–23,400 ,
22000(ATH area)
Key Technical Observations:
Fibonacci Retracement from ~20674 to ~15732 marks the initial corrective range.
Trend-Based Extensions forecast:
TP1 (~23,400): First breakout resistance
TP2 (~26,700): Medium-term expansion zone
TP3 (~30,344): Long-term target if macro tailwinds persist
Scenario Pathways:
Bullish Continuation: Breaks above ATH to reach TP2/TP3
Healthy Correction: Pullback to ~20,600 or deeper ~18,300 before resumption
Deep Correction: Revisits ~16,700 zone if macro environment deteriorates
Fundamental Context:
Tech Stocks & Economic Sentiment: NDX is often the first to move during liquidity expansions. Its performance signals risk-on behavior across global equity markets.
Rate Cuts in 2025: With anticipated Fed rate cuts, tech stocks are primed for inflows. Forward earnings valuations rise, justifying extended upside in high-beta tech.
AI Boom & Earnings Growth: Nasdaq is heavily weighted toward AI, cloud, and semiconductors—sectors expected to lead earnings surprises.
NDX Influence on Gold and Crypto
When NDX rallies:
Crypto: Risk appetite improves. Capital rotation flows into altcoins and layer-1 assets.
Bitcoin: Often sees parallel inflows, especially during strong tech rallies (e.g., 2020).
TOTAL & TOTAL3: Begin breakout patterns if NDX continues to surge.
Gold: May stall or correct as investors favor risk assets. However, gold still holds due to macro hedging and real yield pressures.
When NDX corrects:
Crypto: Volatility spikes. Altcoins bleed faster.
Bitcoin: Short-term dip but may decouple if viewed as digital gold.
Gold: Benefits from flight-to-safety behavior.
US10Y: Often reacts inversely to NDX moves—used for confirmation.
Search Highlights (2024–2025):
Institutions view NDX correction as signal to rotate into commodities (incl. gold).
Cross-market correlations show NDX peaks often precede crypto mini-rallies.
De-risking from NDX often triggers gold strength, especially in geopolitical or inflationary backdrops.
Bias & Strategy Implication
Primary Bias: Bullish
Expecting upside continuation to 26,700–30,000 zone
Multiple correction opportunities are present even during rally
Strategic Actions:
Monitor for correction to yellow/red zones for accumulation
Use NDX behavior as leading macro signal for crypto rotations
Watch resistance at 23,400 closely; breakout confirms trend extension
Time Horizon
Short-Term (1–2 months): Watch for breakout or correction to ~20,600–18,300
Mid-Term (3–6 months): Probable test of ~26,700
Long-Term (6–12 months): Potential expansion to ~30,344.49
Bitcoin’s Final Wave & Time Reversal Zone _ New ATH Loading?Today, I want to analyze Bitcoin ( BINANCE:BTCUSDT ) on the weekly time frame and answer these questions :
Can Bitcoin create a new All-time High(ATH) or not!?
At what price range can Bitcoin's uptrend end!?
When can we expect the uptrend to end!?
Please stay with me.
Bitcoin appears to have managed to break the Resistance lines , although we saw a fake break a few months ago , and it also appears to have a Hammer Candlestick Pattern in the previous weekly candle , which could signal the completion of Bitcoin's pullback to the Resistance lines(broken).
In terms of time , if we want to analyze the Bitcoin chart and look at Bitcoin's past, in general, the months of June(Average=-0.13%/Median=+2.20%) and especially July(Average=+7.56%/Median=+8.90%) have been among the most productive months for Bitcoin , and the months of August(Average=+1.75%/Median=-8.04%) and September(Average=-3.77%/Median=-4.35%) were the months when Bitcoin had a correction . Technical analysis tools show the end of the upward trend and the beginning of Bitcoin's correction at the Time Reversal Zone(TRZ=June 23 to August 4) .
In terms of Elliott Wave theory , Bitcoin appears to be completing the main wave 5 , as the main wave 3 was extended .
I expect Bitcoin to trend higher(+10%) in the coming weeks and create a new ATH . New ATH could be created in the Potential Reversal Zone(PRZ) and TRZ , and then we can wait for the start of the main correction .
What do you think about Bitcoin’s future movement? Can Bitcoin create a new ATH? When and at what price?
Note: If Bitcoin falls below $100,000, we should expect further declines.
Please respect each other's ideas and express them politely if you agree or disagree.
Bitcoin Analyze (BTCUSDT), weekly time frame.
Be sure to follow the updated ideas.
Do not forget to put a Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open).
Please follow your strategy and updates; this is just my Idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post.
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GOLD → Hunt for liquidity ahead of continued correctionFX:XAUUSD is strengthening due to uncertainty while the dollar consolidates. Amid heightened volatility, a retest of the 3340 liquidity zone may form, and if buyers fail to keep the price above this zone, gold may form a correction
Demand for the dollar is supported by the rise in USD/JPY after soft comments on interest rates by Bank of Japan Governor Ueda. Gold is responding with a correction. Traders remain cautious ahead of the outcome of the second day of trade talks between the US and China in London. Donald Trump confirmed that dialogue with Beijing is continuing, but key differences remain. Investors are also awaiting US inflation data (CPI), which could determine the further dynamics of the dollar and gold. Meanwhile, inflation expectations in the US fell from 3.6% to 3.2% in May.
Technically, gold broke the structure and confirmed key resistance during the correction. A hunt for liquidity is possible before the decline continues towards the key target of 3275.
Resistance levels: 3340, 3361
Support levels: 3301, 3275
The price is forming a new trading range of 3340 - 3301 (3294). Before declining, especially if the fundamental background changes to positive as negotiations progress, gold may test the liquidity zone of 3340 and form a false breakout, which will trigger a continuation of the correction to 3275.
Best regards, R. Linda!
Gold is expected to continue to fall to 3280 or even 3250In the short term, the operation of gold is completely in line with my expectations. I clearly pointed out yesterday that gold will encounter resistance in the 3330-3340 area and will at least retest the area around 3315-3305 again. At present, gold has rebounded slightly after retesting the area around 3302 and is trading around 3309.
According to the strength of yesterday's rebound, gold did not effectively break through the 3300-3340 area. Gold is still weak in the short term, and the head and shoulders top structure is constructed in the 3328-3338-3328 position area in the short term, which suppresses gold to a certain extent and limits the rebound space of gold. After multiple tests, the area around 3300 may be more conducive to being broken. After gold has been under pressure and fallen many times, the current short-term resistance area has been reduced to the 3310-3320 area; so I think gold still has a good downward space in the short term, which may continue to 3280, or even around 3250.
So for short-term trading, I think it is possible to consider continuing to short gold.
$BIDUSDT might be heading back to ATH!!!
Following a pump and a retest back to a support zone, MEXC:BIDUSDT seems to be gearing up for a continuation of it bullish trend. Once it breaks out and closes above the trendline, It could rally back to its all time high (ATH) and above it possibly.
Kindly support this post to help reach other people and do comment your thoughts about the setup.
GOLD → Correction before a decline or continuation of the trend?FX:XAUUSD is testing the liquidity zone during the Asian session and forming a false breakout. The metal is recovering, but the fundamental background remains unstable...
On Monday, gold is holding steady at around $3,300 amid a weaker dollar and caution among traders ahead of US-China talks and the release of US inflation data (CPI) on Wednesday. Strong NFP data for May strengthened the dollar and lowered expectations for a Fed rate cut. However, domestic problems in the US are putting pressure on the currency... Markets are adjusting positions ahead of CPI. Geopolitics and domestic unrest in the US are holding back gold's decline, despite possible optimism about a trade deal.
Technically, the trend is bullish, with the price previously breaking the structure but rising in the Asian session after a false breakdown of the order block and the 3300 liquidity zone. Further movement depends on 3330 - 3340
Resistance levels: 33301, 3339, 3375
Support levels: 3301, 3275
The price is heading towards 3330-3340 for a retest. If the dollar continues to decline and gold manages to consolidate above 3340, the bullish trend may continue. BUT! A false breakout of the 3330-3340 zone could trigger a further decline after the bullish structure breaks down.
Best regards, R. Linda!
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 6/10/2025 SessionCME_MINI:NQM2025
- PR High: 21847.75
- PR Low: 21823.25
- NZ Spread: 55.0
No key scheduled economic events
Session Open Stats (As of 12:25 AM 6/10)
- Session Open ATR: 393.42
- Volume: 27K
- Open Int: 269K
- Trend Grade: Neutral
- From BA ATH: -3.2% (Rounded)
Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges)
- Long: 22096
- Mid: 20383
- Short: 19246
Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions.
BA: Back Adjusted
BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone
NZ: Neutral Zone