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Fibonacci

USDCHF Wave Analysis – 7 March 2025 - USDCHF broke the support zone - Likely to fall to support level 0.8750 USDCHF currency pair recently broke the support zone between the support level 0.8900 (which has been reversing the price from December), the support trendline of the daily down channel from January and the 61.8% Fibonacci correction of the upward impulse from December. The breakout of this support zone accelerated the active strong downward impulse wave C of the ABC correction (B) from January. USDCHF currency pair can be expected to fall further to the next support level 0.8750 (the monthly low from December and the target for the completion of wave C).
Short
by FxProGlobal
Tariffs = Black Swan EventDid not account for tariff's being such a contentious issue. The market does not like UNCERTAINTY and we have that in droves right now. The very positive outcome of this is we have some unimaginable buying opportunities here to make some very serious money in a relatively short (1-3years) time period. Like 2x to 5x. This is game changing stuff. Supply/demand is showing that if 30.45 breaks then we are going down to the mid-20's. I suspect this is a higher than normal probability, so personally I'm waiting it out. What we are seeing is not panic, but market makers and trading algorithms triggering to approach and break through "support" areas. This is intentional. It's designed to maximize the most future gains. Good luck to all. Buy what you can safely afford to spend. Don't gamble, but stick to your plan.
AMEX:TNALong
by ep7
1
Walmart Makes a Lower HighWalmart rallied for more than a year, but some traders may see risk of a deeper pullback. The first pattern on today’s chart is the rising trendline along the lows of August and January. WMT dropped under that support last month and began March turning it into resistance. Second, prices have breached the 50-day moving average. That may suggest its intermediate-term uptrend is ending. Third, the 8-day exponential moving average (EMA) has crossed under the 21-day EMA. MACD is also falling. Both of those may signal short-term bearishness. Fourth, the recent peak occurred at a 50 percent retracement of the initial drop. That may also confirm direction is pointing lower. Finally, the overall price action may be viewed as the start of an A-B-C correction. Such a pattern could potentially include a push to a lower low. Traders may also eye levels around $85, near a price gap from November 19. TradeStation has, for decades, advanced the trading industry, providing access to stocks, options and futures. If you're born to trade, we could be for you. See our Overview for more. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is no guarantee of future performance or success. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss equal to or greater than your entire investment regardless of which asset class you trade (equities, options or futures); therefore, you should not invest or risk money that you cannot afford to lose. Online trading is not suitable for all investors. View the document titled Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options at www.TradeStation.com . Before trading any asset class, customers must read the relevant risk disclosure statements on www.TradeStation.com . System access and trade placement and execution may be delayed or fail due to market volatility and volume, quote delays, system and software errors, Internet traffic, outages and other factors. Securities and futures trading is offered to self-directed customers by TradeStation Securities, Inc., a broker-dealer registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission and a futures commission merchant licensed with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission). TradeStation Securities is a member of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, the National Futures Association, and a number of exchanges. TradeStation Securities, Inc. and TradeStation Technologies, Inc. are each wholly owned subsidiaries of TradeStation Group, Inc., both operating, and providing products and services, under the TradeStation brand and trademark. When applying for, or purchasing, accounts, subscriptions, products and services, it is important that you know which company you will be dealing with. Visit www.TradeStation.com for further important information explaining what this means.
NYSE:WMT
by TradeStation
Bitcoin: Mastering the Art of Resistance and SupportBitcoin recently broke below a 105‐day trading range, anchored by the critical 90K level. After the breakdown, it found support around 80K, prompting a sharp rebound back toward the previous range. This rebound, however, was short‐lived: BTC tested 95K, then quickly retraced, only to rally again toward 90K, where it trades at present. Overview of BTC’s 105‐Day Range Break and Retest: Yearly Open at $93,576: This is the single most important level to watch. Price currently sits below the yearly open, suggesting that, for now, bears hold the upper hand. If bulls cannot reclaim this threshold, the yearly candle remains vulnerable to turning red. 90K–95K Resistance Zone: With Bitcoin failing to sustain gains above 95K, this band becomes a natural focal point for potential short entries. Bears are expected to defend this region aggressively. The question: Where do we go next? Let’s break down both the resistance (short setup) and an upcoming support zone (long setup), incorporating a variety of confluences—from volume profiles and trend lines to Fibonacci retracements and pitchfork alignments. 1. Resistance Analysis & Short Thesis 1.1. Double Top Target at $72,800 A double top pattern has formed, suggesting a measured‐move target near $72,800. While not a guaranteed endpoint, this target serves as an early directional clue. Price could still find support at higher levels, so we use this only as one piece of a larger puzzle. Double Top Pattern with $72,800 Target: 1.2. The 105‐Day Trading Range & Retest Bitcoin spent over 100 days ranging between roughly 90K and 105K. The downside break turned that prior range into a new resistance zone—specifically 90K–95K, with an even stronger cluster up to $96,418 (Point of Control from that range). Fixed Range Volume Profile: The POC (Point of Control) from this 105‐day period lies at $96,418.05, further extending our resistance zone. Price retesting anywhere between 90K and the POC around 96K sets up potential short entries. Fixed Range Volume Profile Showing POC at $96,418.05: Stop Loss Guidance: Given the possibility of wicks or “stop hunts,” a safer invalidation point sits above 98K. That buffer allows the trade room to breathe without prematurely stopping out on minor spikes. 1.3. Daily & Weekly Moving Averages In addition to the above factors, both the daily 21 EMA/SMA and the weekly 21 EMA/SMA are converging in the 90-92K region, acting as additional resistance. 1.4. Bearish Trend Line & Pitchfork Alignment Bearish Trend Line: Connecting the all‐time high at $109,588 and the swing high at $106,457.44 yields a downward sloping line. This trend line has already acted as resistance near 100K on February 21. Pitchfork (Modified Schiff): Anchoring from the all‐time high (109,588) to the swing low (97,777.77) and back up to 106,457.44 confirms the same bearish trajectory, aligning neatly with the trend line around 95K. Bearish Trend Line & Pitchfork Convergence Around 95K: 1.5. Monthly Order Block & Fibonacci Confluence Monthly Order Block: Spanning from the yearly open (93,576) up to the POC (~96,418), this monthly order block forms a substantial supply zone. Price often gravitates toward the median line of an order block, which sits near 94–95K. Fibonacci Retracement (0.786): From the swing high at 99,475 (Feb 21) down to the low at 78,258.52, the 0.786 retracement is at 94,934.67—almost exactly the median line of the monthly order block. Monthly Order Block, Median Line, and 0.786 Fib at ~94,934.67: When price rallies swiftly to the 0.786 for the first time, it often presents an ideal short entry—especially under a confluence of bearish signals: 2. Short Trade Setup: Laddering In & Out 2.1. Scaling In (Entries) We allocate $25,000 (from a $100,000 account) and ladder our entries from 89,736 up to 96,206: Short Trade Laddered Entries: Stop Loss: $97,560 (slightly below the higher “breathing room” area of 98K). Max Risk: Approximately $1,028.16 (about 4.11% of the GETTEX:25K position, or 1.03% of the $100k account). 2.2. Scaling Out (Exits) We plan to take profits in increments as price drops, aiming for an average exit around $79,822.10: Potential Profit: Approximately $3,704.16 on a $25,000 position, which is +14.82% (or +3.70% of the $100k account). Risk‐to‐Reward Ratio: 3.60, an attractive R:R for a swing trade. 3. Support Analysis & Long Thesis Having addressed the downside retest and short scenario, let’s turn to potential support where Bitcoin might reverse for a long trade. 3.1. Double Top Target & 5‐Wave Structure The double top projected target near $72,800 aligns with a broader Elliott Wave possibility, where BTC may have completed a 5‐wave structure from the low at $15,476 to the all‐time high at $109,588. A typical Fibonacci retracement of this 5‐wave move suggests the 0.382 level at $73,637.22, which sits near a notable swing high of $73,777—coincidence? 5‐Wave Structure & 0.382 Fib Retracement at ~$73,637: 3.2. Monthly Bullish Order Block & Further Fib Confluence Monthly Bullish Order Block: Located around $71,280, historically a place where buyers have stepped in. Fib Retracement (49K to 109K): The 0.618 retracement lands at $72,144.62, adding further confluence around the 72–73K zone. Taken together, we begin to see a support band forming between $73,777 and $71,280. Monthly Bullish Order Block & 0.618 Fib ~$72,144.62: 3.3. Fib Speed Fan & Bullish Trend Line Fib Speed Fan (0.7): On higher timeframes, the 0.7 fan lines up with the same 71–73K region if BTC dips this month. Bullish Trend Line: Connecting the lows at 49K and 52,550 also aligns with this zone, reinforcing the idea that a cluster of support awaits if price slides that far. Bullish Trend Line & Fib Speed Fan ~$71–73K: 3.4. Potential Long Trade Setup Entry Range: Ladder in from 76K down to 71K (or adjust according to personal risk appetite within that 73–71K zone). Stop Loss: Below 70K, providing sufficient buffer. Target: At least the monthly open ($84,350), or higher if momentum supports a stronger bounce. Risk‐to‐Reward (R:R): Aim for 2:1 or better, depending on exact entries and the final target. 4. Summary Short Trade: Resistance Zone: 90K–95K, extending up to $96,418 (POC) and with the daily/weekly 21 EMA/SMA acting as additional resistance in the 90-92K region, plus a stop‐hunt buffer above 98K. Laddered Entry: GETTEX:25K allocated, averaging around $93,706, with a stop near $97,560. Scaling Out: Average exit near $79,822, netting a +14.82% gain on the position (+3.70% on account). R:R: 3.60—solid for a swing setup. Long Trade: Support Zone: Between $73,777 and $71,280, with multiple Fibonacci and structural confluences. Laddered Entry: Potential DCA from around 76K down to 71K, with a stop under 70K. Target: At least $84,350 (monthly open), likely offering a 2:1 or better risk‐to‐reward. Sharp moves up or down have been the norm lately, often gravitating to the 0.786 fib retracement on each leg, so remain vigilant for sudden volatility. Ultimately, flexibility is key. If Bitcoin reclaims the yearly open at $93,576 and pushes decisively above 95–98K, the bearish case weakens. Conversely, a significant drop below 80K brings the deeper support zone near 73–71K into sharper focus. Always be prepared for shifts in market conditions—confirm each setup with multiple indicators and chart patterns before entering any trade. Stay up to date with evolving market dynamics and adjust your strategy accordingly. Happy trading! P.S. If you have any coin requests, feel free to share them in the comments. I will be selecting one or two for the next technical analysis.
Short
by SiDec
8
Pivoting Automatic Data Processing. ADPStrong bearish candle starts the picture painting. MIDAS cross follows, along with divergent RSX now out of OBOS territory. Would you look at that long combo on BB%PCT, now flipping to bearish. Interestingly, VZO and Ehlers Stoch RSI have been chronically divergent along the fifth wave, which is often seen. Fifth wave has often been attributed to traders big and small pushing the price beyond sustainable levels, which gets high lighted by divergences being throw off all over the place.
NASDAQ:ADPShort
by Rykin_Capital
DXY filling gaps downward - expect correction soonLooks like the dollar is filling GAPs as the chart shows. Last 2 are at 102.826 and 101.601. Follow Fibs for areas of reaction where we may get a correction.(yes fibs go beyond 1.618) Look for the correction very soon, if we have one, to go as high as 105.5-ish. It should NOT correct higher than that if we are going much lower...according to Elliott Wave I'm assuming we are in the 3rd wave. Watch for the trend(price) to move toward the blue line as an area/direction while it's correcting.
TVC:DXYShort
by rabbitinvestmentsstrategies
GOLD → Consolidation ahead of NFP. What can happen?FX:XAUUSD is heading for resistance after a false breakdown of 2895. The market continues to test 2926 with the aim to break this zone. There is news ahead and the risks of increased volatility are growing. Markets remain jittery over Trump's tariff plans, which supported gold demand. Trade tensions and mixed U.S. jobs data are adding to inflation risks, which could weaken the dollar. All eyes are on the NFP report. Based on the analysis of the last few reports, a rough conclusion is that on average in the first 15 minutes, weak data led gold to rise 60 points and strong data led gold to fall 50 points However, other factors such as inflation and data revisions may dampen the market reaction. The final effect depends on investors' assessment of the Fed's future policy. Resistance levels: 2926, 2942 Support levels: 2912.5, 2909.5, 2895 Before the news, the price may test 2926 with a false breakout (MM trap for liquidity) and roll back to the nearest support. But further prospects depend on the news. Gold is in consolidation 2926 - 2895. On the background of possible weak data gold may overcome 2926 and accelerate to ATH. Strong data may provoke profit taking and correction to 2895 - 2875 Regards R. Linda!
FX:XAUUSDLong
by RLinda
9
AUDUSD → Retest of the imbalance zone before growth FX:AUDUSD on the back of strong dollar decline has all chances for further growth, but today, Friday, the risks are quite high, as NFP is ahead... The currency pair is forming a local uptrend, in tandem with the falling dollar the Aussie may continue its strengthening course. On the 4H a local correction to the imbalance zone is forming, where a rather strong support line 0.63 is just passing. The price is forming a false breakout and after capturing liquidity is trying to consolidate higher. If the bulls can keep the defense above 0.63 - 0.633, the price will be able to continue the growth phase in the short and medium term. Support levels: 0.63, 0.6255 Resistance levels: 0.633, 0.6363 Consolidation above 0.63, subsequent rise and consolidation above 0.633 is an ideal scenario that could confirm the bulls' intentions to go higher. But, NFP and other news are ahead. Risks are rising and we should expect high volatility in the markets Regards R. Linda!
Long
by RLinda
2