Ethereum - Expecting Bullish Continuation In The Short TermH1 - We have a clean bullish trend with the price creating a series of higher highs, higher lows structure.
This strong bullish momentum is followed by a pullback.
No opposite signs.
Until the two Fibonacci support zones hold I expect the price to move higher further.
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Fibonacci
HLI: Four Boxes, One TruthEvery chart tells a story, but sometimes... you need boxes to make sense of the chaos. Here's how the price action of HLI unfolded through four carefully framed boxes, each revealing a new chapter of this market narrative.
Box 1: The Fall Begins
The first act opens with a classic five-wave impulse decline from the high of $191.99 to $164.05. Textbook.
Every wave fits: clean subdivisions, sharp acceleration in wave 3, and a modest wave 4.
This structure confirms one thing: this was no correction — it was the beginning of something bigger.
I labeled it as Wave A of a possible zig-zag. Or… maybe the start of a complex W?
Box 2: The Deceptive Pause
Enter Box 2: a tricky A-B-C correction (3 waves up) peaking at $187.93 .
Classic fakeout setup — just enough strength to draw in bulls, but not enough to erase the previous drop.
The form and proportion suggest it was just a connector, not a trend changer.
I tagged this one as Wave B — or the (X) in a WXY structure. A pause, not a pivot.
Box 3: The Deep Cut
Next, the market tumbles in another five-wave impulse, bottoming at $137.99.
This leg confirms the pattern: it mirrors Box 1, creating the signature 5-3-5 of a zig-zag — or the W-Y of a complex correction.
Final labeling:
If Box 1 was Wave A, this was Wave C — and together they form a Zig-Zag .
If Box 1 was Wave W, this became Wave Y, closing a potential WXY correction .
A clear bearish tale. Or was it?
Box 4: The Mystery Unfolds
The current rally — from 137.99 to 182.99 (and counting) — is the real wildcard.
Structurally, it’s looking like a clear 5-wave impulse, with sub-waves i-ii-iii-iv-v all marked and playing out.
But wait — if this is just another corrective X wave, it's way too aggressive… isn't it?
Here’s the plot twist:
If price gets rejected below $191.99, this might be Wave X2 in a massive WXYXZ correction.
But if it extends beyond 192 and pushes toward $200, then forget the correction — this rally is likely a new trend, and Wave Z may never arrive.
Key Invalidation Levels
$191.99: The upper limit for X2 — breach it, and the entire corrective scenario collapses.
$161.00: The lower guardrail for the impulse — drop below this, and the impulsive interpretation gets voided.
Indicators I Trust (But Still Watch Closely)
MACD: Momentum slowing.
RSI: Hovering near 50. Neutral, but bears need a breakdown.
Closing Thoughts
Four boxes.
Three corrective legs.
Two competing counts.
One impending breakout — or breakdown.
The price may lie, but the structure doesn’t.
So traders — keep your wave counts tight and your invalidation levels tighter.
Part of the ongoing #WaveTracker series
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 5/29/2025 SessionCME_MINI:NQM2025
- PR High: 21597.00
- PR Low: 21489.00
- NZ Spread: 241.5
Key scheduled economic events:
08:30 | Initial Jobless Claims
- GDP
12:00 | Crude Inventories
Open session with momentum break beyond 21600
- 2% value increase before London hours
Session Open Stats (As of 1:15 AM 5/29)
- Session Open ATR: 455.84
- Volume: 81K
- Open Int: 267K
- Trend Grade: Neutral
- From BA ATH: -3.7% (Rounded)
Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges)
- Long: 22096
- Mid: 20383
- Short: 19246
Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions.
BA: Back Adjusted
BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone
NZ: Neutral Zone
10YR US Treasury Note Chart Fibonacci Analysis 052825Trading Idea
1) Find a FIBO slingshot
2) Check FIBO 61.80% level
3) Entry Point > 112/61.80%
Chart time frame:B
A) 15 min(1W-3M)
B) 1 hr(3M-6M)
C) 4 hr(6M-1year)
D) 1 day(1-3years)
Stock progress: A
A) Keep rising over 61.80% resistance
B) 61.80% resistance
C) 61.80% support
D) Hit the bottom
E) Hit the top
$ZB - 30y Treasury Futures Sell off in Equity Risk OnThe 30-Year Treasury Bond Futures (ZB) sold off notably, driven by a combination of macro headlines and technical positioning. A key catalyst was the European Union’s decision to postpone the implementation of retaliatory auto tariffs until July 9th, which temporarily eased geopolitical tensions and triggered a risk-on rotation into equities — at the expense of duration-heavy fixed income assets.
From a technical standpoint, ZB fell sharply from the upper 3 standard deviation Bollinger Band and found support near the 2 standard deviation band, where it stabilized. It then retraced roughly 50% of the move, tagging the 20-period simple moving average. Market participants are now closely watching whether the contract completes a full measured move lower to 111'19, a level that represents:
The 100% Fibonacci extension of the prior decline
A test of the lower 3 standard deviation band
A notable inefficiency zone on the hourly chart
While the MOVE Index has declined and is now tracking sideways — signaling reduced bond market volatility — traders remain focused on long-end supply, fiscal slippage, and global rate re-alignments. Until these themes settle, technical levels like 111'19 may continue to act as magnets for price discovery in long-dated Treasuries.
LTC/USDT 4H ChartHello everyone, let's look at the 4H LTC to USDT chart, in this situation we can see how the price is moving in a specific yellow triangle, in which we can see an attempt to exit from the bottom. On the other hand, the blue lines mark the main channel of the downtrend and here we can see how the price is fighting with its upper limit, but it is a strong resistance.
Let's start by defining the goals for the near future that the price has to face:
T1 = 101 USD
T2 = 111 USD
Т3 = 124 USD
Т4 = 147 USD
Now let's move on to the stop-loss in case the market continues to fall:
SL1 = 90 USD
SL2 = 80 USD
SL3 = 63 USD
The RSI indicator shows a rebound, but the movement remains around the middle of the range, which further leaves room for a potential deepening of the rebound.
BTC Trap & Reverse: The Power of SFPs in ActionBTC continues to chop in a tight range near its previous all-time high. While price action may appear messy at first glance, traders using a combination of structure, Fibonacci levels, and order flow tools are spotting clean opportunities — especially through Swing Failure Patterns (SFPs).
🔍 What Just Happened?
Bitcoin recently rejected from the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level — a classic reaction zone. What made this move powerful was the SFP that formed at that level. Price swept above a prior high, triggering breakout buys, only to reverse. This type of move traps late longs and offers an ideal short entry.
🧠 Educational Insight: Why SFPs Are One of the Best Setups
SFPs (Swing Failure Patterns) are some of the highest-probability trades you can take for a few key reasons:
1️⃣ Liquidity-driven: They form where stop losses cluster — above highs or below lows — creating a magnet for price.
2️⃣ Clean invalidation: The wick high/low gives a natural stop-loss level, keeping risk tight.
3️⃣ Fast reaction: Once trapped traders are forced to exit, price often reverses sharply — giving you strong follow-through.
4️⃣ Confirmable with order flow: Using tools like Exocharts, you can see aggressive longs/shorts piling in just before the reversal. This adds conviction to the setup.
📏 Current Confluence:
Rejection from the 0.786 Fib retracement
SFP confirmed on high volume
1:1 trend-based Fib extension sits at ~$105,410
That level also lines up with the 0.666 Fib retracement
Anchored VWAP around $105K
Liquidity pool right at that zone too — a likely magnet
🎯 Trade Idea:
Short triggered at the SFP wick, stop just above it. First target: the 1:1 extension near $105.4K. Risk-reward is excellent with high probability if price continues to unwind late longs.
✅ Key Takeaway:
In ranges like this, you don’t need to guess direction — you need to react to structure. SFPs give you that edge. When paired with real-time tools like Exocharts and anchored VWAPs, these trades become sniper entries rather than coin flips.
Let the market show its hand — and trade the reaction, not the prediction.
📌 Summary:
This is how you avoid overtrading in chop: wait for key levels, watch how price reacts, and let trapped traders create the move. If BTC revisits the $105K region, it’s a major area to watch for reaction — or to take partials if you’re in a short.
The best trades come from patience + precision.
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If you found this helpful, leave a like and comment below! Got requests for the next technical analysis? Let me know.
Bitcoin soon above 114K and market there would be nonstop pumpAs we can see price is near our possible ATH resistance zone which soon can break and any breakout there cause a bullish market which Alts will pump hard after a years of sleep.
Major supports are also mentioned on the chart too and previous ATH resistance zone now is strong support which retest also completed.
DISCLAIMER: ((trade based on your own decision))
<<press like👍 if you enjoy💚
Outbreak with HesitationAlready on May 12th we had left the trading range since 23rd April but then the price has fluctuated around the outbreak level.
After the last backtest of the upper band of the edge it seems that we can go ahead now.
As we could not fall back into the range we seem to get momentum now. A new high would confirm the willingness of the market to try to correct the large fall since mid January.
WATCH OUT FOR VERITASKAPFrom around 0.83, VERITASKAP created an all-time high of around 1.81. This happened between August 2024 and September 2024. Then, price dropped into the discount level where is currently. The current price action shows that price is in a discount level, at a demand zone and within a falling wedge.
From a chart pattern perspective, falling wedge can be seen on the chart and a break out of the downtrend and resistance level around 1.06 with a bullish candle closing above these levels will serve as a strong indication that the stock is ready to rally up as much as the all-time high.
From a technical indicator perspective, awesome oscillator is below 0, showing that the stock is oversold. In addition, there is a bullish indication on the awesome oscillator as shown by its colour and upward movement. This is pointing to the fact that the value of the awesome oscillator is moving towards 0 and can cross over it which can be a good indication for a rise in price as well.
From a smart money concept perspective, a break of the last high (around 1.27) that led to the last bearish internal break of structure will as serve as indication of a bullish trend. Hence, the target will the all-time high.
Either way, the stock has a good potential. An aggressive trader or investor may buy at the current market price. While a conservative trader or investor may wait for a breakout.
Watch out for the confluences indicating potential rise in price so as to not miss out on the benefit.
QBTS eyes on $17.86: Golden Genesis fib a "lower high" of top?QBTS and all quantums have been on the rampage.
This one is currently testing a Golden Genesis fib.
Rejection here could mark a "lower high" of the top.
Break-and-Retest would start the next leg of uptrend.
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Previous Analysis that caught the Break Out:
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BTC - Bottom soon?I recently published this idea privately because I was unable to post it publicly at the time. Now, I’d like to make it public.
(Click the picture above to view the TA-Chart.)
I'll be copying and pasting all the text from the original private idea here, along with the missing links I had prepared on April 2nd.
The purpose of this chart is just to illustrate how my three target levels align with my Fibonacci retracement levels — which is also the reason I selected them.
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We are currently in a complex situation. Markets have been experiencing a sell-off due to uncertainty surrounding Trump's tariffs. Additionally, Trump needs to refinance a massive sum of government debt ($7 trillion) over the next 10 years. To achieve this, he must lower the 10-year yield to reduce interest payments.
One way to lower yields is by increasing government efficiency, thereby reducing borrowing needs and bond issuance, which in turn decreases yields. Another method is cutting interest rates, yet his tariff policies counteract this approach. This raises the question: does he want a recession? During a recession investors would flock toward bonds as a safe haven, ultimately pushing yields down.
Bad Signs
- Fed Atlanta GDPNow Gold adjusted at -0.8%
- PMI below 50
- Major uncertainty due to enormous tariffs
-> Michigan Consumer Sentiment (57) and Expectation (52.6) are at levels seen during the recession of 2022
- FED cannot cut interest rates due to persistently high inflation
Are we heading towards a recession?
People tend to overreact and overlook key indicators—one of which is liquidity. Examining the WTREGEN, we see a steep decline since mid-February, indicating that cash has been injected into the system.
This is further supported by the rising RRPONT since mid-February. Additionally, the Fed has been slowing down QT, meaning the liquidity injection is not being offset as much.
Additionally due to the tariffs countries like China could bring a liquidity stimilus into the markets to help their domestic markets.
In summary, liquidity levels should be sufficient for at least a blow-off top. The reason markets have not rallied yet is due to uncertainty stemming from Trump’s tariffs. This is reflected in recession-level Michigan Consumer Sentiment and the Fear & Greed Index.
A key bullish signal would be a falling RRPONT alongside a declining WTREGEN, as this would indicate that cash injections are flowing into risk assets, showing regained confidence. For confidence to return, we need a positive catalyst, such as an stop to QT, an increase of the balance sheet or an interest rate cut. However, the Fed is holding off on cuts due to high inflation and the tariffs.
But this is where it gets interesting:
According to Truflation, inflation has dropped significantly below the Fed’s 2% target since early March. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data lags by a full month, so if Truflation’s data holds any truth, the upcoming inflation report on April 10 may reflect this decline. This could restore confidence and provide the Fed with room to give us a positive catalyst.
Where is BTC headed?
Compared to my expectations from early february ( ibb.co ) I expect BTC to first move into the $78K–73K range before rallying toward $115K instead of rallying now at 82k. This range aligns with my Fibonacci levels, and 73K was the high of March 2024. Additionally there is currently a fractality compared to the bottom of 2022 where the bottom now would be rougly at 75k.
To reach $115K, BTC must first break the black downward trendline and the double-top neckline at around $95K. My blow-off top target is $115K, and if BTC holds above $100K, I will eye $145K and $185K as the next targets.
Furthermore there could be a chance that the tariffs are just a negotiation tool since the tariffs do not make any sense % wise.
However if Trump does intend to impose these tariffs at the said % and other countries stab back with their tariffs, then we might actually see a stagflation if the Fed does not intervene-or intervenes too late.
SPX500 watch 5900 then 6103: Double Golden zone Was/Will be TOP?SPX500 with a ferocious recovery after tariff relief.
About to test a most important zone of its lifetime.
Double Golden zone of a Genesis plus a Covid pair.
Such a tight confluence of two major Goldens is rare.
It warned us of a top BEFORE Trump even won (click).
The retest could form a "Wave B" or "Bull Trap" lower high.
It is PROBABLE that we "Orbit" these high gravity objects for a while.
It is PLAUSIBLE that we "Blast" by them but have to retest soon after.
It is POSSIBLE that "wave B" ends here and we drop deep for "wave C".
I am personally a bull, but we should be PREPARED for a BULL TRAP.
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Previous Plots below
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5901 TOP warning:
5668 Tariff warning:
5100 Tariff Relief Entry:
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BTC - the trendline no-one is watchingDaily TF / logarithmic chart
A trendline has been in play since September 2023 where Bitcoin has found support on multiple occasions (thick white line). With a brief breakthrough in April.
Currently looking a bearish div. on 4H chart which would signify a move down. Using the fib chart, a break below said trendline could take us to the 618 which is also a liquidity-rich zone (around 66-68K price range).
The trendline could begin to act as resistance if this scenario plays out.
Based on previous Bitcoin halving cycles the "peak" always occurs in Nov-Dec of the year following the halving event 2013 / 2017 / 2021... 2025?
Tellor Tributes TRB price analysis⁉️ We don't know what caused yesterday's rise in the price of #TRB, but it is a very, very manipulative asset, just remember the “short squeeze” liquidation on New Year's night 2024.
Now the price of OKX:TRBUSDT has come to the zone where longs had been taking for more than six months, with the hope that the growth trend is about to resume.... but no...
🔽 You shouldn't short it, because it's a very manipulative asset - see p.1
🔼 But whether to take longs with the hope of increasing the deposit or sitting in a drawdown is a matter of individual choice.
We depicted our thoughts at the chart.
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US 100 – Further Moves Await NVIDIA Earnings UpdateGlobal stock indices have reacted positively at the start of this new trading week to President Trump’s decision to extend a deadline which would impose a tariff of 50% on EU goods imported into the US from June 1st to July 9th.
Taken alongside a new willingness being signalled from the EU side to speed the negotiating process along in key areas, means trader hopes have increased that a deal between the first and third largest of the world’s economies can be agreed in principle within the allotted time.
Focusing on US stock indices, the US 100 has risen 2.4% this week, taking it only a small step away from its recent highs at 21493 seen on May 20th. However, later today, the rally is about to face possibly its biggest challenge of the week in the form of earnings from the second biggest company on the planet ($3.3 trillion mkt cap) and AI bellwether NVIDIA, which are released after the market close.
Traders will not only be looking to judge company’s actual performance against expectations but will be eager to receive updates on the impact of President Trump’s tariffs on future revenue, chip deals with the Middle East, competition and its outlook for AI demand moving forward.
Answers to these questions and others may well impact sentiment towards technology stocks and the US 100 moving into the end of the week, and month, on Friday.
With increased volatility a possibility, knowing the technical outlook can also be helpful.
Technical Update: Focus on the May Highs at 21493
While last week did see correction themes develop within the US 100 index, there appears to be no clear-cut signs of a negative sentiment shift yet, as fresh buying developed above support provided by the rising Bollinger mid-average, currently at 20772 (see chart below).
However, looking forward, if the NVIDIA earnings prompt an increase in US 100 price volatility, what are the levels traders may be watching for clues to the next directional themes?
Potential Support Levels:
It is possible the rising Bollinger mid-average, currently at 20772, represents a first support for traders, and as such, closing breaks below this level might lead to a more extended phase of price weakness.
Such moves while not a guarantee of declines, could lead to a deeper sell-off towards 20001, which is equal to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of April 21st to May 20th 2025 price strength.
Potential Resistance Levels:
With this week seeing fresh price strength emerge from above the rising Bollinger mid-average, a positive price pattern of higher highs and higher lows, may still be evident. This reflects buyers currently being willing to pay higher prices, each time a setback materialises.
However, to maintain this uptrend pattern in price, the focus could now be on resistance provided by the May high at 21493 (May 20th), with closing breaks above this level required to suggest further strength might then be on the cards, towards what could prove to be the next potential resistance level at 22226, which is the February 18th 2025 all-time high.
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AUS200 - Bullish Continuation Using 3 Bar Reversals, Fibs, AB=CDAfter a recent violation of a previous structure high, the AUS200 shown signs of relief with a pullback into the previous level of structure resistance which we would now look to act as present structure support.
At this level price has also given us a 3-Bar Reversal which can be used as a reason for entry.
Targets are protected at a previous level of structure highs on the daily, also being supported by a Fibonacci extension level and an AB=CD pattern projection.
If you have any questions, comments, or just want to share your ideas, please do so below. A please show your support by hitting that LIKE button before you go.
Akil
TER watch $82.18/51: Significant Resistance to make Dip or BreakTER trying to break out of the range bound action.
Currently testing significant resistance $82.18-82.50
Look for a Dip-to-Fib or Break-n-Retest for long entry.
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Previous Analysis that caught the local bottom:
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