USD/JPY October Market Analysis: Bearish Structure and Key Sell
USD/JPY October Market Analysis and Trading Setup
In the month of October, we are observing an open high-low-close structure on the USD/JPY, which strongly suggests the development of a potential sell setup. At this point, we are awaiting further confirmation through a TDI (Traders Dynamic Index) cross, which will signal the appropriate entry points for sell positions.
Key Observations:
1. Bearish Divergence: Since August 16, 2024, there has been a clear bearish divergence, extending from that date to the current market high.
2. Daily Timeframe Structure: The open-high structure on the daily chart for October further strengthens the bearish outlook.
3. Overbought Conditions: The market appears significantly overbought, following a bullish breakout that began on October 1, 2024.
4. TDI Cross as Confirmation: A bearish cross in the TDI indicator will serve as confirmation of the presence of sellers, providing an essential signal for initiating sell positions.
Targeted Take Profit Levels:
- Take Profit 1: 147.500
- Take Profit 2: 146.500
- Take Profit 3: 145.500
- Take Profit 4: 144.500
Trading Advice:
It is crucial to wait for valid signals, such as the TDI cross, to confirm entries before taking action. Always trade with caution, and ensure risk management strategies are in place to protect your capital.
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Fibonacci
Gilead Sciences (GILD): Will Support Hold or Will We See a Drop?We've neglected Gilead Sciences for a while, but it's time for an update. Unfortunately, our entry looking back wasn't ideal, as the stock has fallen below the 61.8% retracement level. It found support just below the 78.6% level, which marks the bottom of our range. This level was precisely touched, and we saw a relatively good movement upward from there.
However, the outlook remains uncertain. We hope that the stock does not fall below this range bottom, as it would prompt us to consider cutting it. Our first take-profit target is at the range high around $86.5, but reaching this level will take time as Gilead Sciences is currently underperforming.
Unlike most other stocks, Gilead Sciences operates in the research sector, not the tech sector. This means it follows a different cycle and is influenced by different capital flows. It tends to perform well when tech stocks do poorly. If tech stocks remain bullish, Gilead Science might continue to struggle. However, if there's a shift, Gilead Science could reverse and potentially reach up to $123, though this is quite far off.
We are holding our position for now, hoping not to cut if the stock falls out of the range. If it does, we will take necessary action.
Gilead Sciences (GILD): Pattern Still Intact—What’s the Plan?Let’s quickly review our open position in $GILD. We’ve managed to turn the whole chart around, and I hope everyone who bought in had the strength to sit it out. It was a close call with the stop loss, but now we’re up significantly, and we’ve moved our stop loss closer to $65.46. So far, we’re up 17%, and we don’t want to dictate when to take profits. If you’re in, do your own research and take profits whenever you feel comfortable—it's all up to you 👍.
If you take a closer look, you’ll see that NASDAQ:GILD has been following a nice upward pattern: a surge, then three candles down, then another surge. I’m not sure how long this pattern will hold, but as long as we don’t retrace too much, we should be fine. I also like that we’re respecting all the key levels. The RSI is about to be overbought, so we might see another three candles down, but this time it could be a deeper pullback.
We’ll see how it plays out, but we’re very pleased with this swing trade so far. Congratulations to everyone who’s been riding this wave 🍾.
Bitcoin Analysis==>>Risk-To-Reward:4.40Bitcoin started to rise after the UAE exempted cryptocurrency transactions from Value Added Tax (VAT) .
The UAE exempts crypto transactions from VAT starting November 15, aiming to attract more investments and solidify its position as a crypto hub.
Bitcoin is currently moving near the Resistance zone($67,400-$65,000) , the Potential Reversal Zone(PRZ) , and above the ascending channel .
Regarding Elliott wave theory , Bitcoin has restructured a bit since my previous post . Bitcoin seems to be completing wave C inside the ascending channel.
Also, Regular Divergence (RD-) between Consecutive Peaks .
I expect Bitcoin to decline to at least the Support zone($62,860-$62,110) again, and because there is still a high possibility of tension between Israel and Iran , it is very likely that Bitcoin will come back below 21_SMA(Weekly) and 200_SMA(Daily) .
⚠️Note: This analysis is valid until Bitcoin does not touch $66,500.⚠️
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My position: Of course, I manage this position with price changes.
BTCUSDT
🔴Position: Short
✅Entry Point: 64347.0 USDT (Limit Order)
⛔️Stop Loss: 65283.0 USDT [ You can open a Short position where the Stop Loss(SL) is $66,500 ]
💰Take Profit:
🎯62493.0 USDT ===>>>Risk-To-Reward: 1.98
🎯60229.0 USDT ===>>>Risk-To-Reward: 4.40
Please don't forget to follow capital management ⚠️
Please pay attention to the style of opening the position.⚠️
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Bitcoin Analyze (BTCUSDT), 1-hour time frame⏰.
Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open).
Please follow your strategy and updates; this is just my Idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post.
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Gilead Sciences (GILD): First Take Profit in a High RangeGilead Sciences is now back trading at the high end of its range, and we’ve decided to take our first profit here. It’s crucial to respect range-bound trading, and there is a strong possibility of a pullback at this point. However, we don’t expect this pullback to reach the lower end of the range again but rather settle in the middle. If NASDAQ:GILD reclaims this range high, it could provide even more upside and new opportunities.
We are also raising our stop loss to $65.80 to lock in gains. Gilead serves as our "natural hedge" against broader risk-on market conditions, and with a 40% bounce from the range low at the same time the S&P 500 is hitting new all-time highs, it’s clear that Gilead can benefit as well.
We’re keeping a close eye on this stock, and if another opportunity arises, we’ll be ready to act.
NOTCOIN (NOTUSDT) Elliott Wavehello friends
In NOTCOIN (NOTUSDT) digital currency, we see the formation of a 5-wave and zigzag pattern.
Waves 1 or A and 2 or B have been completed. Wave 3 or C has not yet formed.
According to the above, one (upward) scenario can be considered in two possible scenarios.
In the first scenario, we consider the formation of 5 impulse waves.
Assuming 5 waves and considering the formation of waves 1 and 2, we will expect the formation of wave 3 and the range of 0.00872 can be its first target. The loss limit of this scenario can be considered 0.007232.
The microwaves 1 and 2 are also formed from 3 or C, and microwave 3 is being formed from 3 or C. The second scenario is to consider a zigzag, which is fully explained above.
The final target could be 0.009646.
To support me, I recommend you install Trading View software on your phone and see my analysis and support me with your comments and Boost. Be successful and profitable.
USDCAD hit the 61.8% retracement Intraday Update: As expected in the end of day update yesterday, the USDCAD has hit the 61.8% retracement at 1.3748 (high of 1.3747 this far) and the overbought RSI may suggest that we may see a bit of a pullback near these levels ahead of CPI. A strong US CPI print could put the 1.3791 in play next.
What will happen next on gold. We've reached an area structurally where something has to give on Gold. If price breaks the highs we could see a continuation of the uptrend. On the other side of the coin the 200 day EMA is right above price on the 15 min time frame. If a rejection occurs we could see a pull back to the 50 FIB.
ETHEREUM → Support breakdown? Zone of interest 1550 ↓BINANCE:ETHUSD continues to give up positions. Buyers do not believe in growth in the near future. Bears are increasing their pressure, which may lead to the breakout of the strong support zone...
As seen on W1, the next potential target, in terms of liquidity, could be the 1550 support. Any attempt to buy back the asset on a retest of the support does not result in anything radically bullish. The market will not allow the price to approach the intermediate highs, which indicates the buyer's weakness.
On H4 the price is squeezed by local ascending support (bottom of the triangle) and descending conglomerate of moving averages, which clearly dictate the location of strong resistance. In the mid-term, there may be a rebound to the local highs or SMAs before a further decline.
Resistance levels: 2471, 2520, SMA
Support levels: 2310, 2250, 2111
So far there are no technical or fundamental reasons in favor of the buyer. Seller's pressure may be intensified. The breakout trigger is 2325. The trigger for a pullback is 2475 - 2500.
Rate, share your opinion and questions, let's discuss what's going on with ★ BINANCE:ETHUSD ;)
Regards R. Linda!
Copper Pulls Back as China Optimism FadesCopper extended the August rebound into autumn and reached three-month highs, helped by the Fed’s jumbo rate cut and massive stimulus from Chinese authorities aiming to prop the economy and the property sector. However the measures do little to address the structural problems and the real estate market is unlikely to return to its former glory, while the lack of follow through on the fiscal front this week caused prior optimism to subside. Furthermore, the Fed has struck a more cautious approach towards further easing and Friday’s strong jobs report supported the reserved commentary. Markets have now priced out previous aggressive bets for 75 bps of cuts this year, aligning with the Fed’s 50 bps projections.
Copper pulls back as a result, threatening the EMA200 (black line) and the 50% Fibonacci of the recent recovery. A breach would pause the upside bias, send the non-ferrous metal into the daily Ichimoku Cloud and expose it to the ascending trend line from the August lows. Deeper correction however does not look easy under the current technical and fundamental backdrop.
There are still hopes for additional Chinese stimulus (potentially within the weekend), while prospects of US soft-landing and easier monetary policies in major economies can support higher prices. So do the AI boom and the green energy transition. Copper tries to defend the EMA200 that maintains its recovery momentum. This will allow it to push again towards 4.791, but we are cautious around further strength at this stage.
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Past Performance is not an indicator of future results.
BTCUSD down AB=CDIn the 4-hour chart, BTCUSD encountered resistance and fell back after rebounding to 0.618 ratio in the previous band, and the short-term bearish trend is dominant. At present, we can pay attention to the downward band AB=CD mode, and the downward target is around 58,000. At present, we can pay attention to the short-selling opportunities around 62,000.
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 10/10/2024 SessionCME_MINI:NQZ2024
- PR High: 20452.75
- PR Low: 20435.75
- NZ Spread: 38.0
Key scheduled economic events
08:30 | Initial Jobless Claims
- Core CPI (MoM/YoY)
13:00 | 30-Year Bond Auction
--Temp AMP margin increase
Pushing auction to Sep 26 pivot high
- Inside previous session highs
Session Open Stats (As of 12:55 AM 10/10)
- Weekend Gap: N/A
- Session Gap 7/24: -0.32% (open > 19946)
- Gap 10/30/23 +0.47% (open < 14272)
- Session Open ATR: 316.95
- Volume: 14K
- Open Int: 253K
- Trend Grade: Bull
- From BA ATH: -2.5% (Rounded)
Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges)
- Long: 20954
- Mid: 19814
- Short: 17533
Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions.
BA: Back Adjusted
BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone
NZ: Neutral Zone
$SPY October 10, 2024AMEX:SPY October 10, 2024
15 Minutes.
2 days patience paid off.
AMEX:SPY broke 575 made a high 577.06 and retraced back to 575 to make a new high 577.71.
So consider the 2 fibs
Rise from 574..99 to 577.71. For this holding 575-576 is important.
For the fib extension 564.49 to 573.36 to 566.63 (because two LL 566.24 and 565.49 had oscillator divergence) 100% extension was 575 levels.
Hence was waiting to cross 575.
Now holding 575 which is 38.2% retracement for the rise 566.63 to 577.71 we have a target 578-579 levels.
On downside it is important to hold 570 levels as it is 61.8 retracement for the last rise from 566.63 and also 20 averages in 15 minutes.
So today I will buy on retrace at 575-576 levels for 579 as target.
The small rectangle box drawn is crucial to hold today.
GOLD CPI MOVEMENT Gold is currently undergoing a correction phase after reaching record highs earlier this year. Today, prices have continued their downward movement, with key support levels being tested. Analysts suggest that gold's decline is mainly driven by the strength of the U.S. dollar and revised expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, which are now seen as less aggressive than previously expected. As a result, gold has seen pressure from these macroeconomic factors.
For the rest of the day, gold may continue to fluctuate around the $2,600 mark. If the price stays below $2,632, further downside to $2,585 is possible, according to technical forecasts. However, if buyers step in, a rebound could push prices back toward the $2,640 to $2,663 range
Xau/Usd Xau/Usd Gold
This week I'm going to be in shorts for gold . I'm already in a short position at 2662 . If you look at the weekly timeframe we are at a resistance and all time highs . We been consolidating on the h4 timeframe but I do expect a downside move to the -0.27 or -0.6186 before taking buys . Yes , its pretty obvious gold is overall bullish especially since its a safe haven and everything going on in the world right now but before we buy we need a daily / weekly pullback . For now I recommend following the h4 as your main timeframe .