Fibonacci
Nifty & Sensex Analysis & Trade Plan for 19th DecemberNifty & Sensex Analysis & Trade Plan for 19th December
GOLD → Ahead is the Fed and the rate decision. What to do?FX:XAUUSD tested strong support on Tuesday at 2633 before traders moved into a buying phase, hoping a possible rate cut would support their intentions
There is a 93% probability that the Fed may cut interest rates by 0.25%. But the thing to pay attention to here is the general backdrop - the Fed's stance. Hawkish hints about 2025 could have a much bigger impact than a rate cut, which is partially already factored in by the market.
Any hint of fewer rate cuts next year could be a growth driver for the dollar. Powell's comments play an important role in assessing the situation for next year against the backdrop of Trump's policies
Downside risks for gold are quite high due to the controversial situation in favor of the Fed's hawkish stance.
Technically, the emphasis is on the local channel. A price exit beyond 2658 or 2633 will be accompanied by a strong impulse.
Resistance levels: 2658, 2675
Support levels: 2645, 2633, 2620
The situation is very controversial and complicated, that's why several directions relative to the key zones are indicated on the chart.
Everything depends not only on the actual rate numbers, but also on the Fed comments, namely we are interested in the tone and stance for next year. Recommendation - skip trading before the event and wait until volatility decreases to be able to adequately perceive the market position
Regards R. Linda!
FNMA Daily wave 5 projection3x potential ends of wave 5s,
Likely to see some significant moves up to finish a wave
It will be interesting to see what happens from there but I suspect there will be some retracement and possible complex correction for quite a while before pushing higher
The triangle is over a decade long... so likely to continue higher medium to long term
FNMA Weekly UpdateLooking for another push into an intermediate term wave 5, see lower timeframe view
Supply level is close to a fib projection cluster level so may see some resistance there or profit taking...
AUDUSD - What message will the Federal Reserve's dotplot have?!The AUDUSD currency pair is below the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe and is moving in its downward channel. In case of a valid failure of the channel ceiling, we can see the supply zones and sell within those zones with the appropriate risk reward. If the downward momentum decreases, we will look for buy positions on the midline and bottom of the channel.
Investors are cautiously anticipating the key decisions from the U.S. Federal Reserve’s upcoming policy meeting. It is widely expected that the central bank will announce its third rate cut of the year and provide projections for 2025.
Giovanni Staunovo, an analyst at UBS, noted that market participants are eagerly awaiting updates from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and any hints regarding the trajectory of future rate cuts. He stated, “We expect the Federal Reserve to implement a 25 basis point rate cut this week, followed by four additional cuts next year.”
The Federal Reserve’s two-day meeting is anticipated to confirm a quarter-point rate reduction while also providing updated projections for potential rate cuts in 2025 and possibly 2026.
Meanwhile, the U.S. services sector has expanded at its fastest pace since October 2021, injecting fresh momentum into the economy, even as the manufacturing sector faces a deeper downturn. The S&P Global services index rose from 56.1 to 58.5 in December, while the manufacturing PMI fell to 48.3, marking its lowest level in 55 months.
These figures highlight a widening gap between sustained growth in the services sector and further declines in manufacturing. Factory output and order volumes have dropped at a faster pace, while the cost of imported raw materials from China has risen due to concerns over potential tariffs from the Trump administration.
Following the release of this data, projections for real private gross investment growth in the fourth quarter dropped from 2.4% to 1.2%, while forecasts for real government spending growth in the same period rose from 2.4% to 2.6%. Additionally, U.S. holiday retail sales for 2024 are expected to reach a remarkable $979 billion.
According to a recent report by Fitch Ratings, declining demand poses the most significant risk to global commodity markets if the U.S. imposes new tariffs and affected countries retaliate.
Fitch has warned that potential U.S. tariffs on China, Canada, and Mexico could weaken global economic growth, particularly in China, the world’s largest consumer of commodities. This could exert significant pressure on base metals, chemical products, and oil markets.
However, Fitch also noted that China’s economic stimulus measures could offset some of this pressure. At the same time, new tariffs on specific goods, such as steel and aluminum, could increase price volatility and disrupt trade routes.
Bloomberg reported that J.P. Morgan believes the upward trend in European government bonds is nearing its end. The firm now views Australia as the next promising market for stronger performance.
Kim Crawford of J.P. Morgan explained that there is limited room for further gains in Europe, as swap markets have already priced in the potential rate cuts by the European Central Bank. He also highlighted that the Reserve Bank of Australia’s stance, which has yet to reduce rates in this cycle, positions Australian bonds for stronger growth compared to other developed markets.
USDJPY → Consolidation of price in the sell zoneFX:USDJPY reaches a strong resistance at 153.87 within an uptrend. Will this direction continue, as the Fed rate meeting is ahead....
Fundamentally, today is a big day for the markets. At 19:00 GMT the Fed rate meeting, where with a 93% probability the decision to cut interest rates by 0.25% will be made, which will make the dollar less attractive, but for how long, given Trump's policy?
Accordingly, the dollar is in a consolidation phase, traders are waiting. If the dollar starts a downward correction, it will affect the currency pair accordingly. But I do not exclude that on the background of high volatility the price may form a retest of resistance and a false breakout.
Resistance levels: 154.95, 156.75
Support levels: 151.44, 159.69
At the moment, after the retest of 0.79 fibo and the key resistance at 153.877, the price is consolidating in the selling zone. The fundamental background may increase the pressure, which may lead to a fall.
Regards R. Linda!
Pediatrix Medical Group, Inc. | Chart & Forecast SummaryKey Indicators On Trade Set Up In General
1. Push Set Up
2. Range Set up
3. Break & Retest Set Up
Notes On Session
# Pediatrix Medical Group, Inc.
- Double Formation
* 9.50 USD | Uptrend Bias | A+ Settings | Subdivision 1
* Pennant Structure | Survey Valid | Subdivision 2
- Triple Formation
* Retracement 1| Bias On hold | Entry Settings | Subdivision 3
* Retracement 2| ((50)) & 0.236)) | Hypothesis
* Retracement 3| 0.382)) & 1.618)) | Hypothesis
Active Sessions On Relevant Range & Elemented Probabilities;
London(Upwards) - NYC(Downwards)
Conclusion | Trade Plan Execution & Risk Management On Demand;
Overall Consensus | Neutral
AKT Trade Setup: Risk-to-Reward Ratio 4AKT Trade Setup: Risk-to-Reward Ratio 4
Entry: cmp
Take Profit (TP): 4.27
Stop Loss (SL): 3.567
Timeframe: 4H
Technical Confluences:
Fibonacci Golden Pocket: Price aligns within the golden pocket zone, increasing the probability of a reaction.
4H Order Block Tap: Entry is based on a retest of a high-probability demand zone.
Risk-to-Reward Ratio: 4
Trade Plan:
Enter at cmp after confirming bullish reactions from the order block.
Target profit at 4.27, aligned with resistance
Protect capital with a stop loss at 3.567, just below the order block and invalidation level.
Disclaimer:This analysis is for educational and informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets involves significant risk and may result in the loss of your invested capital. Ensure proper risk management and trade only with funds you can afford to lose. This setup is not financial advice.
Vistra Energy Stock Quote | Chart & Forecast SummaryKey Indicators On Trade Set Up In General
1. Push Set Up
2. Range Set up
3. Break & Retest Set Up
Notes On Session
# Vistra Energy Stock Quote
- Double Formation
* 130.00 USD | Survey Area Valid | Subdivision 1
* (Neckline) | Entry Bias Valid
- Triple Formation
* Pennant Structure | Uptrend & Continuation At 115.00 USD
* Retracement | 0.382)) | Retest | Hypothesis | Subdivision 2
* Daily Time Frame | Valid Area & Entry Settings | Subdivision 3
Active Sessions On Relevant Range & Elemented Probabilities;
London(Upwards) - NYC(Downwards)
Conclusion | Trade Plan Execution & Risk Management On Demand;
Overall Consensus | Buy
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 12/18/2024 SessionCME_MINI:NQH2025
- PR High: 22309.25
- PR Low: 22206.00
- NZ Spread: 230.75
Key scheduled economic events:
10:30 | Crude Oil Inventories
14:00 | FOMC Economic Projections
- FOMC Statement
- Fed Interest Rate Decision
14:30 | FOMC Press Conference
AMP raised margins for expected FOMC volatility spikes
- Retraced 50% of Monday's ATH breakout range
- +100 point value decline at session open
- Auctioning long above previous session close
Session Open Stats (As of 12:25 AM 12/18)
- Weekend Gap: N/A
- Gap 10/30/23 +0.47% (open < 14272)
- Session Open ATR: 287.63
- Volume: 24K
- Open Int: 196K
- Trend Grade: Bull
- From BA ATH: -0.5% (Rounded)
Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges)
- Long: 22667
- Mid: 21525
- Short: 19814
Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions.
BA: Back Adjusted
BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone
NZ: Neutral Zone
BTC/USD Possible Trade Idea 18/12/2024 After a bullish break of structure, I can identify
discounted price for possible long positions targeting the newly created swing high
1.Bitcoin is in a bullish trend, currently experiencing the Counter trend,
3.Expecting a HL formation around 71.8%-78.8% FIB levels but Point of origins/ OB can be used as sensitive areas
2. After forming a HL, BTC consolidates then expands for new HH then return to test POI/Point of origin
Boyd Gaming Stock Quote | Chart & Forecast SummaryKey Indicators On Trade Set Up In General
1. Push Set Up
2. Range Set up
3. Break & Retest Set Up
Notes On Session
# Boyd Gaming Stock Quote
- Double Formation
* (Neckline) | Survey Valid | Subdivision 1
* 50.00 USD | A+ Set Up Area
- Triple Formation
* Retracement | 0.382)) | Subdivision 2
* Trend Line 1 & 2 | Configuration
* Daily Time Frame | 85.00 USD Trend Entry | Subdivision 3
Active Sessions On Relevant Range & Elemented Probabilities;
London(Upwards) - NYC(Downwards)
Conclusion | Trade Plan Execution & Risk Management On Demand;
Overall Consensus | Buy
Northrop Stock Quote | Chart & Forecast SummaryKey Indicators On Trade Set Up In General
1. Push Set Up
2. Range Set up
3. Break & Retest Set Up
Notes On Session
# Northrop Stock Quote
- Double Formation
* 530.00 USD| Survey | Subdivision 1
* (Neckline) | Bias On Hold | Method 1
- Triple Formation
* ABC Flat Correction | Configuration | Subdivision 2
* Inverted Head & Shoulders Pattern | Method 2
* Retracement Area| Pullback Entry | Hypothesis | Subdivision 3
Active Sessions On Relevant Range & Elemented Probabilities;
London(Upwards) - NYC(Downwards)
Conclusion | Trade Plan Execution & Risk Management On Demand;
Overall Consensus | Neutral
BXP Inc. Stock Quote | Chart & Forecast SummaryKey Indicators On Trade Set Up In General
1. Push Set Up
2. Range Set up
3. Break & Retest Set Up
Notes On Session
# BXP Inc. Stock Quote
- Double Formation
* 52.60 USD | Uptrend Bias | Subdivision 1
* 012345 | Wave (1)) & (2)) | Extended Survey
- Triple Formation
* Retracement | 0.382)) | 0.236)) & 0)) | Subdivision 2
* 012345 | Wave (3)) | (4)) & (5)) | Subdivision 3
* (1) & (0.618) | Neutral Area
Active Sessions On Relevant Range & Elemented Probabilities;
London(Upwards) - NYC(Downwards)
Conclusion | Trade Plan Execution & Risk Management On Demand;
Overall Consensus | Neutral
Transform Your Gold Trades: Ultimate Price Action Insights!FXOPEN:XAUUSD @Alexgoldhunter Price Action Analysis and Strategy
Key Levels and Zones
Order Blocks (OB):
Upper OB: Around 2,653.023 USD
Lower OB: Around 2,644.000 USD
Break of Structure (BOS):
BOS Level: Around 2,644.000 USD
Fibonacci Retracement Levels:
0.786 Level: 2,653.09345 USD
0.705 Level: 2,651.001625 USD
0.618 Level: 2,648.75485 USD
0.5 Level: 2,645.7075 USD
0.382 Level: 2,642.66015 USD
Volume Profile:
Indicates areas with significant trading activity. Higher volume bars at levels like 2,644.000 USD and 2,653.023 USD suggest strong interest and potential support/resistance.
Significant Price Levels:
p1D High: Noted on the chart.
Swing High: Noted on the chart.
BMR Low: Noted on the chart.
Buy Strategy
Entry Point:
Consider entering a buy position near the lower OB around 2,644.000 USD, especially if the price shows signs of support and bullish reversal patterns.
Stop Loss:
Place a stop loss below the lower OB or the BMR Low to minimize risk.
Take Profit:
Target the upper OB around 2,653.023 USD or the Fibonacci retracement levels (0.618 or 0.786) for potential profit-taking.
Sell Strategy
Entry Point:
Consider entering a sell position near the upper OB around 2,653.023 USD, especially if the price shows signs of resistance and bearish reversal patterns.
Stop Loss:
Place a stop loss above the upper OB or the Swing High to minimize risk.
Take Profit:
Target the lower OB around 2,644.000 USD or the Fibonacci retracement levels (0.5 or 0.382) for potential profit-taking.
Conclusion
By using these price action techniques, traders can develop a strategic approach to buying and selling based on key levels and market structure. Remember to always manage risk with appropriate stop loss and take profit levels.
Happy trading! 📈📉
If you have any more questions or need further details, feel free to ask!
Follow @Alexgoldhunter for more strategic ideas and minds
Mastering BNB/USDT with Pro Price Action Techniques!BINANCE:BNBUSDT @AlexGoldHunter Price Action Analysis and Strategy
Key Levels and Zones
Support and Resistance Levels:
Resistance Block (RB): Around 735.00 USDT
Support Block (RB): Around 705.00 USDT
Strong Low: Around 705.00 USDT
Equal Lows: Around 705.00 USDT
Fibonacci Retracement Levels:
0.786 Level: 730.9076 USDT
0.705 Level: 728.753 USDT
0.618 Level: 726.4388 USDT
0.5 Level: 723.3 USDT
0.382 Level: 720.1612 USDT
Volume Profile:
High volume nodes around 715.00 USDT and 705.00 USDT
Price Action Markers
CHoCH (Change of Character): Indicates a potential reversal in trend.
MSS (Market Structure Shift): Indicates a shift in market structure, often signaling a change in trend direction.
BOS (Break of Structure): Indicates a break in the previous market structure, confirming a trend change.
Buy Strategy
Entry Point:
Look for a bullish CHoCH or MSS around the support block (RB) at 705.00 USDT. Confirmation of a bullish reversal can be further validated by a break above the 0.382 Fibonacci level (720.1612 USDT).
Stop Loss:
Place a stop loss below the strong low at 705.00 USDT to minimize risk.
Take Profit:
Target the resistance block (RB) around 735.00 USDT. Partial profits can be taken at intermediate Fibonacci levels (726.4388 USDT and 728.753 USDT).
Sell Strategy
Entry Point:
Look for a bearish CHoCH or MSS around the resistance block (RB) at 735.00 USDT. Confirmation of a bearish reversal can be further validated by a break below the 0.618 Fibonacci level (726.4388 USDT).
Stop Loss:
Place a stop loss above the recent swing high at 735.00 USDT to minimize risk.
Take Profit:
Target the support block (RB) around 705.00 USDT. Partial profits can be taken at intermediate Fibonacci levels (723.3 USDT and 720.1612 USDT).
Conclusion
This chart shows a detailed technical analysis setup for BNB/USDT, incorporating price action techniques, volume profile, and Fibonacci retracement levels to generate a buy and sell strategy. The key levels and zones identified provide potential entry and exit points for traders.
If you have any more questions or need further details, feel free to ask! 📈📉
Follow @Alexgoldhunter for more strategic ideas and minds
Estee Lauder (Extended Hours) | Chart & Forecast SummaryKey Indicators On Trade Set Up In General
1. Push Set Up
2. Range Set up
3. Break & Retest Set Up
Notes On Session
# Estee Lauder (Extended Hours)
- Double Formation
* Retracement | Not Numbered | Subdivision 1
* ABC Flat Correction
- Triple Formation
* 118.20 USD | Wave 2 | Extension | Subdivision 2
* Retracement | Numered | 1))
* Cup & Handle Pattern | Daily Time Frame | Subdivision 3
Active Sessions On Relevant Range & Elemented Probabilities;
London(Upwards) - NYC(Downwards)
Conclusion | Trade Plan Execution & Risk Management On Demand;
Overall Consensus | Neutral
US500 evening analysisTechnical analysis of US500.
This analysis has price in wave 4 of (5).
Wave 4 would appear to be an Elliott Triangle Wave.
If accurate, wave 5 of (5) would provide one more all-time-high to complete top (unless truncated).
Price is very unlikely to tag median line of pitchfork (red line), a bearish side which suggests price should fall back to 5835.6 at a minimum.
Count valid for price below 6197.
CYCLE 4 | RSI Monthly TrendA quick post to cover Bitcoins Cycles with respect to the Monthly RSI.
We can see based on the monthly close RSI values, a descending trend where each consecutive peak for consecutive bitcoins cycles have reduced in magnitude (i.e. a lower low RSI value coinciding with the trend reversal points. This trend is also evident with monthly RSI low values.
Using trend lines (based on historic BTC behavior in the past), we can speculate what would not be abnormal monthly RSI behavior for this cycles (Cycle 4) top and the future bear market low.
Have a play with the interactive tools in the post to observe details more clearly.
I have also detailed Cycle 1-3 length from the bottom to the top, bear markets (top to bottom), halving's and each cycles Fib extensions for your reference.
For greater detail, reference the below companion post to this discussion.
