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Fibonacci

BTC Monthly Fib Extension and External Range Targets High or LowFib extension drawn from Fib ext A (start month low local low) to Fib ext B (high) to Fib ext C (low of the range). Formation is a decending wedge - obvious rejection 0.382. Only drawn 2 low Naked Daily PoCs (Naked Point of controls). Depicted, looking at a rejection fromm he wedge to loweest NPOC. Looking higher, elevated higher highs that could be putting in with the low nPocs acting as support. The external Fib is based of a Fib extension from the previous consolidation range, Zoom out to see how I got this.
by hmaroudas
AUDUSD Wave Analysis – 17 February 2025 - AUDUSD broke the resistance zone - Likely to rise to resistance level 0.6400 AUDUSD currency pair recently broke the resistance zone between the key resistance level 0.6320 (which stopped the previous minor correction iv) and the 50% Fibonacci correction of the downward impulse from December. The breakout of this resistance zone accelerated the c-wave of the active ABC correction 2. AUDUSD currency pair can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 0.6400 (former strong support from April and August of 2024).
Long
by FxProGlobal
EURUSD Shor-term SellMy Analysis on EURUSD Based on my technical evaluation of this currency pair, the price action appears to be retesting the key resistance level within the current market structure. This phase is critical, as resistance zones often act as barriers where selling pressure may intensify. To optimize risk-reward dynamics, I recommend exercising patience and awaiting confirmation of a bearish reversal signal—such as a rejection candlestick pattern, loss of momentum, or a decisive close below the resistance line I’ve identified. A validated bounce from this zone could serve as a high-probability sell signal for traders looking to capitalize on a potential downward move. Additionally, monitoring volume trends and broader market context would further strengthen the conviction in this setup. As always, prudent risk management, including stop-loss placement above the resistance, remains essential. What are your thoughts, everyone? Does this align with your technical outlook, or are there alternative factors you’d consider in this scenario?
Short
by sirkamal
4
Bitcoin Seasonality - Best Month (October) and Best Day (Monday)It's very important for every Bitcoin trader to know its seasonality because this will significantly increase the probability of successful trades. I have been trading Bitcoin for almost 10 years, and I successfully use seasonality patterns to predict Bitcoin price movements. For example, you don't want to go long on Bitcoin during August or September; that's probably a very bad idea. The biggest market crashes usually happen in September. But you definitely want to go long in October or April, as these months are the most promising. Knowledge of these patterns will give you an advantage over standard retail traders. Every trade matters. Average return by Month (%) January: +5.1% February: +12.1% March: +4.8% April: +18.7% May: +14.2% June: +4.4% July: +6.1% August: -3.1% September: -8.4% October: +22.2% November: +17.9% December: +7.3% Average return by Weekday (%) Monday: +0.63% Tuesday: +0.18% Wednesday: +0.54% Thursday: +0.40% Friday: +0.37% Saturday: +0.45% Sunday: +0.10% Currently I am bullish on Bitcoin as the price is in an uptrend and the bear market is not confirmed; I expect Bitcoin to hit 115k probably at the end of February/March. What I also expect is an alt season - alt season is starting right now! So it's time to buy some altcoins. Ethereum should outperform BTC in the next weeks as well. Write a comment with your altcoin, and I will make an analysis for you in response. Also, please hit boost and follow for more ideas. Trading is not hard if you have a good coach! This is not a trade setup, as there is no stop-loss or profit target. I share my trades privately. Thank you, and I wish you successful trades!
Long
by Xanrox
52
Nasdaq Bullish/Dump?Been a while since i uploaded an update, but this is the second update for the year 2025. Nasdaq has been maintaining its bullish momentum for quite sometime now, but that doesn't necessarily mean that the bulls are no longer in control, indices did show gaps today(03.02.2025) due to market fear on the implimentation of new tarrifs. However i don't think its signaling an end to the bulish rally, i think season does aloow the Nas to be bullish, as the tech bubble and Ai developements kick in we will see more investors buy tech stock which will reflect posetiviley on the indices. More update still coming, for now my sentiment is long.
SKILLING:US100Long
by mr_mat_sa
BNX - Finding Support, Resistance and Trade SetupsAfter yesterday's push to test the $1 level, BNX got hit with some rejections. Following the swing high SFP (Swing Failure Pattern), the price is down about 10%. Let's update our analysis with some key levels that clearly outline our support and resistance zones, and then we'll dive into the trade setups. Support & Resistance Criteria Resistance Levels BNX faced rejection around the $1 mark, with the resistance zone clearly defined between $1.0137 and $1.0263 A short trade could have been initiated from this zone, with a stop loss placed just above $1.03 The Fibonacci retracement highlights key resistance levels at: 0.618 retracement at ~$0.9774, 0.786 retracement at ~$0.9952 The Point of Control (POC) of the current trading range sits around 0.786, and the daily open is at $0.9966 The pitchfork upper resistance trend line further reinforces this area Moving Averages Adding Resistance: 15-minute 200 SMA: Currently at $0.9836, aligning with the fib retracement 0.618 and adding extra resistance 1-hour 55 SMA: Currently at $0.98085, further supporting the resistance Note: These SMAs are expected to move down in price over time Support Levels Primary Support for Long Trade Opportunity: The overall short trade target remains at around $0.8, supported by multiple Fibonacci confluences: -0.6 negative Fibonacci retracement at $0.7912 Trend-based Fibonacci extension 1.272 at $0.7914 The previous key high at $0.7801 and Fibonacci extension 0.133 at $0.7924 These levels give us a strong support window between $0.8 and $0.78. If the price reaches this level by 17th February, the pitchfork's lower support trendline adds even more strength. Moving Average for Support: Daily 200 SMA: Currently at $0.7786, which confirms the support zone Note: This SMA is expected to move up as time passes, reinforcing support over time Additional Support Zone: Another key support region lies between $0.72 and $0.7075, with a key level at $0.7177 supported by a weekly bullish order block, trend-based Fibonacci extension 1.618 at $0.7075, and the anchored VWAP (yellow line) just below. Trade Setups Short Trade Setup Entry Strategy: Look for short entries between $0.981 and $1 as the price tests the resistance area. Confirm entry through order flow and rejection candles Stop Loss (SL): Place the SL just above the recent high at around $1.018 Target: Aim to reach $0.8, where our confluence of Fibonacci levels and moving averages align Risk/Reward Ratio: This setup offers an amazing risk/reward ratio of approximately 5:1! Potentially up to 9:1 with effective DCA (dollar-cost averaging) into the short trade Long Trade Setup Entry Strategy: If price drops decisively and reaches the support window between $0.8 and $0.78, consider a long trade on confirmation Stop Loss (SL): Place the SL below $0.77 Target: Aim for a profit target at $0.85 Risk/Reward Ratio: This setup offers an approximate risk/reward ratio of 2.5:1 Keep an eye on the charts, set your alarms to the key support and resistance zones, and wait for a solid signal before jumping in. Be ready to tweak your strategy as the market shifts. Happy trading!
Short
by SiDec
6
BNX Breakdown: The Next Trade SetupBNX has recently been testing a key resistance zone around the $1 level. After hitting the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement at $1.10, the market shifted into a downtrend. Let's analyse where our next trade opportunity might arise. Market Structure & Confluence Zones $1 to $1.1: BNX encountered robust resistance between $1 and $1.1, where the 0.618 Fib retracement aligns perfectly with the fib speed fan (0.618-0.65). Additionally, the anchored VWAP taken from the high at $1.1 aligns beautifully with the $1 mark, adding another robust layer of resistance. This convergence reinforces the strength of this zone and signals potential continuation of the downtrend. Recent price action shows that BNX has repeatedly bounced off the 0.618/0.666 levels during small downward corrections. Moving Averages on the 1-Hour Chart: The 21 EMA/SMA on the 1-hour timeframe is clustering between $0.97 and $1, providing additional confirmation of the resistance and offering an ideal entry region for short trades. Primary Short Trade Setup Given the multiple confluences around the resistance zone, our main focus is a short trade with a well-defined laddering strategy: Entry Strategy (Laddering): Initiate short positions with staggered entries between $0.97 and $1.019. This dollar-cost averaging (DCA) approach allows for flexibility and optimises your entry as price tests the resistance zone. Stop Loss (SL): Place your stop loss around $1.0375, just above the Point of Control (POC) or the previous high in this range to effectively manage risk. Target: Aim for a profit target at $0.8. This target is supported by multiple technical indicators. Risk/Reward Ratio: With these levels, you are looking at an approximate risk/reward ratio of 4:1 or better, depending on your specific DCA weighting. Confirmation: As always, await confirmation through order flow analysis and the appearance of rejection candles at key levels before entering the trade.
Short
by SiDec
3
To fade or not to trade? (Example: EUR/USD)There is a correction taking place in the US dollar uptrend. Do we trade against the prevailing trend, or sit on our hands and do nothing? To fade or not to trade, that is the question. On a surface level, the current environment is a trading range - following a long downtrend. When a strong major trend has been in place for around 3 months - sometimes sooner - sometimes later (we have observed 3 months as a good benchmark) something has to change - either there is a significant correction or the trend reverses. The challenge lies in distinguishing between the two. Reacting too early risks fighting momentum, while reacting too late means missing an opportunity. After years of trading, I’ve realised the goal is not to guess – but to follow a structured trading system that tilts the odds in our favor. The system doesn’t work every time of course but it gives you a way to approach the market. Let me outline now - a system using Fractals & the 30-Week Moving Average to help you decide which way to trade the market 1. Identify the Primary Trend Use the 30-week moving average (30 WMA) as the trend filter. Uptrend: Price is consistently above the 30 WMA, and the slope is rising. Downtrend: Price is consistently below the 30 WMA, and the slope is falling. A strong trend remains in place as long as price respects the 30 WMA. A violation suggests a shift is possible. 2. Look for Fractal Confirmation of a Shift In an uptrend, a higher low followed by a higher high confirms continuation. In a downtrend, a lower high followed by a lower low confirms continuation. * The key fractal to watch for a potential bottom after a downtrend – is the first higher low after a downtrend correction that made a higher high (potential bottom) * The key fractal to watch for a potential top after an uptrend – is the first lower high after an uptrend correction that made a lower low (potential reversal) So, how about what’s happening now? The weekly chart shows a base has formed at 1.02 in EUR/USD. Price closed last week right at support-turned-resistance around 1.05. A ‘higher high’ was formed followed by a ‘higher low’ as demonstrated by the green and red fractals accordingly. However, the price remains below the 30-week moving average. We can see the setup better on the daily chart as a shallow downtrend line. The pattern beneath the trendline is a messy inverse head and shoulders. As such, should the trendline break to the upside it is a bullish signal. And if the trendline holds, it signals the trend is still just consolidating before a continuation lower. We think there’s a good chance this trendline breaks given the alignment of the weekly fractals. So fade the downtrend or ignore the move upwards? To answer that it helps to think about the next step. If the price does break higher, how high is it likely to go? There is resistance at 1.06 from the late November and December peaks. Then the 50% Fibonacci retracement and the 30-week moving average come in around 1.07. The reason fading a trend has a lower probability of success vs trading with the trend is because there is so much nearby resistance (in the case of trading a bottom). You can absolutely fade this trend but our experience tells us the price often fails at a nearby resistance level, capping the risk:reward potential on long positions- and simultaneously offering a nice opportunity for short positions. But - as always - that’s just how the team and I are seeing things, what do you think? Share your ideas with us - OR - send us a request! Drop us a comment! cheers! Jasper
by jasperlawler
8
NIO Inc May Start a New Trend to the Upside. NIOI really like the divergences on the new low on more than one occasion and an encompassing divergence between the first low and the very last one. This is a common set piece in these type of complex corrections, where the Elliott count proves to be problematic. I am confident of a high chance of a profitable long, because almost simultaneously there is a flip on BB%PCT, VZO and Stoch/RSI, plus a MIDAS line course. I used Fibonacci clusters to paint some stationary goals.
NYSE:NIOLong
by Rykin_Capital
4
GOLD → Price is confirming the flat. Emphasis on 2905FX:XAUUSD within the 2% correction that happened on Valentine's Day confirmed that one should not fall in love with the market. Technically the market is still bullish, the price is inside the range of 2880 - 2940 Investors are waiting for the meeting between Trump and Putin, which may influence the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and reduce geopolitical risks. Additional support for gold is provided by expectations of Fed rate cuts after weak US retail sales data. At the same time, the markets are watching the escalation of the tariff confrontation between the US and the EU. High volatility is possible in the coming days due to holidays in the USA and speeches of the Fed representatives The key figure is the ascending support, relative to which a false breakdown and the range of 2880 - 2940 is formed. If the price holds in the buying zone, under the bullish support, we can still see the growth. Resistance levels: 2904.7, 2922.6 Support levels: 2893, 2880 A pre-breakdown consolidation is forming around 2904.7. If the resistance is broken and the bulls can keep the defense above this zone, the gold may continue its strengthening. I do not exclude a retest of the support at 2893 - 2880 before further growth. Regards R. Linda!
FX:XAUUSDLong
by RLinda
17