BTC- the backdoor to the bear marketI know there is and will never be one magical trend line, fibonacci tool, or technical indicator that can predict with 100% accuracy when a bull run may start, when we've reached a bottom, and when a bear market may officially start, but bare with me here. These fib circles are drawn from the top of the 2018 bull run, to the top of the 2019 run. If you look at the outer band, the 4.618, you can clearly see the significance of this level. After the blowoff top of 2018, we bounced off of this exact level 3 times before entering a mind numbing consolidation phase from July until November of 2018, before we saw capitulation that led to a 50% drop the moment we lost support of this band.
Then, from January 2019, we had a 300% increase (mild for bitcoins standards) in which we blew straight through this same level, until we were halted at 1.618, which marked the end of the bull run of 2019. From there, we then saw another 50% drop right back down to, you guessed it, the 4.618 in November 2019. Keep it mind that, at this point, one could have actually drawn these circles on their chart, as both market cycle tops were confirmed. We then ranged between this 4.618 as support and the 4.136 as resistance until January 2020, where we broke above and started what we all thought was the start of the bull run, only to be halted in March 2020, not by fib circles, but by covid. However brief (one weekly candle wick) it was, that was another 50% drop immediately upon losing the support of the 4.618. We recovered rather rapidly as markets go, and got back on track. In October 2020, we had a strong reaction to claiming support on the 3.618, the purple band, that marked the beginning of the 2020 bull run. We saw absolutely zero price reaction to any level until we again reach the 4.618, where we saw a mild 13% pull back to the 4.136, where we ranged in 2018 before capitulating 50%. From here, as we all know, we had another 100% run up to these recent all time highs around 65k before running into a sell wall that retail investors simply could not break.
From this point, at 65k, we had a 50% correction in May 2021 (as well all know). What we may NOT all know, is that we have actually landed on none other than this infamous 4.618 fib circle band, and for the last 63 days, we have held support on this band. Now, think back to the previous times I described above, where we rode this same band as support until an eventual 50% capitulation. The significance of the white trend line I've drawn remains to be seen, but we did see a strong bounce off of it just a few days ago, getting us back on top of the 4.618, as we have been flirting with the idea of testing yet again the range between the 4.618 and the 4.136. I say flirting because we have really only had wicks down below the 4.618. There is about 15% between these two levels at the current state of the chart.
I think you guys know where im going with this. Again, there will never be a magical indicator that says WARNING BEAR MARKET, but if history serves as a roadmap of the future, then we can safely assume that losing the support of this level will indeed lead to yet another 50% capitulatory event. We are treading on extremely thin ice here guys, assuming losing this level of support would have similar affects in this present day.
I would love to hear some of you guys' thoughts about this, as I dont see many people using fib circles on here. Try messing around with conecting market cycle tops and bottoms, and see what things you find. You can actually connect several different areas and observe price action respecting all those levels. For example, if you measure swing high of the 4 sort of "mountain tops" we formed between February and May to the lows we have just formed recently, then you will see that each set of those bands are very well respected, in a series of waves, if you will.
godspeed traders
Fibonacci Circles
The next move for BTC, according to fib circlesso i cleaned up the last post i made in my mind and took this route instead, using the last full market cycle to measure my circles from. quite interesting to say the least. we either fall 50+ % to the next pink band down, or we fight to reclaim the blue band. there really is no other way it can be, if these macro fib circles continue to be respected as flawlessly as they have been. (i actually have a massive grid on my own chart, just cant realistically show that all in a comprehensive way, so i just used the main levels to watch for)
BTC macro fib circle levelsso bare with me here, i connected several different macro points to come up with a little grid. between august 16th and 24th it looks like we will be kind of forced into a major decision to either fight to reclaim the blue band at 40k, or we continue slowly down the downward channel until dropping quite demonically, about 50% to around 12 to 15k as the ultimate bearish scenario. at this point the first ultimate bullish scenario is getting to and closing a weekly candle above the blue band around 39.5k
fib circle breakoutive kind of fallen down a rabbit hole with fib circles recently... but i have noticed that if you measure from highs and lows (and many other points that i wont get into now lol) you can pretty accurately predict where the breakout of said pattern will be with the outer bands. highly recommend playing around with some things, and you can actually measure several price points and build like, a grid if you will, of fib circles that will blow your mind when you see what happens
Turtle coin World (buy and hold)Hi
The drawing is done with a Fibonacci circles
Support with Fibonacci circles is clear
History is repeating , Buy and hold turtlecoin
zoom out chart !
FIB circle appreciation postidk if many of you guys are using fib circles in your TA, but something ive noticed is that if you measure price action from inside of a pattern thats forming, in this case the rise wedge, then you can many times use the outer bands to a pretty high degree of accuracy to anticipate volatile movements when the pattern does break. in this case we broke down from the rise wedge and rode an outer fib circle in a straight line down. i am now in the process of successfully swing trading this little possible inverse head and shoulders mini bullish reversal using fib circles, retracement and pitch fan to identify very accurate price targets. ive been stopped out once. happy trading! FIB CIRCLES!
that thick white line btw is what i see as the neckline of a massive double top we formed upon breaking down from the wedge. i see us retesting that line and probably bonking our heads before reaching further
Sticky CirclesAn example of Fib circles exhibiting their "stickiness"
Price prefers to trend along the circle, rather than break out. Although this breakout will come, it finds it 'easier'
I'm not sure of the mathematical relationship that allows this, but it is common and I have seen it among many of charts published and during personal time
If anyone has insight please enlighten me
Two examples here the USDOLLAR and ZRXUSD
BTC - 5th wave finished? Hello trader,
Good mood and profitable deals 💲
After the sharp drop in the 28k range, we were able to see beautiful 4h reversal candles with good volume . Supported by WMA 50. Now the question is can we expect further upward movements in the 50k range or are we currently in wave 3 of the 5th downward wave. I prefer further upward movements. Anything over 50k would make me longtherm bullish , but there is still a long way to go.
4h chart
1h chart
15m chart
BTC.D vs OTHERS.D
I call the top
I manage to call the end of the 5th wave as well? Follow the green arrow to the point
FIB logscale roadmap with fractal
I would like to mention that all I post are just options and my own opinion !
Always trade with SL, and do not risk more than 1% of your portfolio (max 3%) per trade.
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NASDAQ100 - FIB experiment !Hy trader !
This NASDAQ100 6h chart is a combination of Fib channel,Fib Circle, Fib retracement and Fib time !
No trading advice !
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Thanks for reading my idea,
Trade save!!
BTC - FIB roadmap II - Fractal in play !Hello trader,
Nice week and profitable deals 💲
This BTC logscale weekly chart is a combination of Fib Channel , Fib retracement, Fib cycle, 2 Gann Fans and Time cycles !
Fractals of significant movements from 2014, 2018 and 2019 !
Previous roadmaps
No trading advice !
➡️If you like my posts smash the like👍👍 button, comment or follow me.⬅️
Thanks for reading my ideas,
Trade save!!
Fibonacci Circles GuideA guide for Fib circles
1 - Draw the trendline
2 - look for areas of confluence around the circle at levels for example 0.618, 1.618, 2.618, 3.618 ...
3 - Make an assessment
This is the 4Hour chart for Ethereum and isn't as reliable as using a higher timeframe, say drawing the trendlines through the entire bear market on the weekly for Ethereum would be more effective. Regardless it still serves its purpose.
This is little data for the current bull run.
This trendline drawing can be applied to any (weekly preferable) chart and assessments can be made based on the position of the price, above or below a key Fib level E.g (0.618)
Hope this helps aspiring chartists
BTTUSD Has A Support Been Found?Affection for 4.618 is present
This is on the larger fib circle trend present
Which emphasizes its validity as a support
Hope!