Fibonacci Extension
Bitcoin - 130k by January, then crash to 60k!Comment your altcoin, and I will make a technical analysis for you!
Bitcoin is almost ready to start a new and last huge wave to the upside! My target is around 130k for multiple reasons, which I will tell you in this analysis. But what happens after Bitcoin hits 130k? We all know that Bitcoin is extremely volatile, and during its bearish cycles, a 70% - 80% is standard. We can definitely expect a crash from 130k to 60k in the next bearish cycle to retest the current bullish flag (that you can see on the chart). That's why it's very important for you to take profit and potentially enter a long-term short position on futures!
Why is 130K important? First we have the 0.618 fibonacci extension measured from wave 1+3 -> wave 4. Also, we have the long-term trendline of this bullish cycle, which is even stronger dynamic resistance level!
From the Elliott Wave perspective, we need to complete this impulse wave and make the last wave 5! This wave 5 already started at 49k in August. On the chart, we can see 2 major consolidation periods marked as wave 2 and wave 4.
The best plan on Bitcoin is to buy it and sell around 130k, then enter a short position on futures to make money in the next bearish cycle. You will also get funding fees for holding your short position!
Let me know what you think about my analysis in the comment section, and please hit boost and follow for more ideas. Trading is not hard if you have a good coach! Thank you, and I wish you successful trades.
GOLD → Consolidation in correction phase ahead of news...FX:XAUUSD is in correction phase, but before important news a consolidation is formed due to fear and unpredictability factor. Analysts are expecting a decline in inflation, but what will happen in fact? A bull run or a dump?
Markets are pricing in an 81% chance of a 0.25% interest rate cut in November. But yesterday's minutes showed that most officials supported an excessive 0.5% rate cut to balance inflation confidence and labor market concerns.
Ahead of CPI, Initial Jobless Claims ...
If CPI shows stronger data, the question among regulators will be in a different vein of “should we cut 0.25?” which will only reinforce the dollar's rally and markets will continue a solid correction.
A larger decline in CPI could revive hopes of an excessive Fed rate cut in November, triggering a correction in the US dollar. Gold could experience a fresh influx of funds.....
Resistance levels: 2623, 2627, 2637
Support levels: 2605, 2600, 2585
Technically gold is in correction and the pressure from bears continues. In the mid (short) term, I expect a retest of resistance at 2623 (a false breakdown is possible) followed by a decline to 2600-2585. It is not excluded that the news may have an opposite effect...
Rate, share your opinion and questions, let's discuss what's going on with ★ FX:XAUUSD ;)
Regards R. Linda!
Fibonacci Retracement ExplainedWhat Are Fibonacci Retracement Levels?
In simple terms, Fibonacci Retracement Levels are horizontal lines on a chart that represent price levels. These price levels help identify where support or resistance may likely occur on a chart.
Each retracement level corresponds to a specific percentage, indicating how much of a pullback has taken place from a previous high or low. These percentages are derived from the Fibonacci sequence and include 23.6%, 38.2%, 61.8%, and 78.6%. Although not an official Fibonacci ratio, the 50% level is also commonly used.
This indicator is useful because it can be drawn between a high and a low price point, creating levels that indicate potential retracement areas between those two prices.
The basic Fibonacci Retracement amongst many trading platforms would normally look like this:
While this is okay, I would recommend changing the settings to my suggested format to improve clarity and comprehension. The revised version would look like this:
To copy this, the revised Fibonacci Retracement Settings are bellow:
By doing this, it shows you the “Golden Zone.” This spot is considered one of the most important areas because price often pulls back into this zone right before “extending” in a bullish pattern.
>>>>>NERDY INFO AHEAD<<<<<
Calculating Fibonacci Retracement Levels
The origin of the Fibonacci numbers is fascinating. They are based on something called the Golden Ratio.
This is a sequence of numbers starting with zero and one. Then, keep adding the prior two numbers to get the third number. This will eventually produce a number string looking like this:
• 0, 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144, 233, 377, 610, 987...with the string continuing indefinitely.
Fibonacci retracement levels are derived from the Fibonacci number sequence. As the sequence progresses, dividing one number by the next number yields 0.618, or 61.8% (233 divided by 377 gives you 0.618037.
Divide a number by the second number to its right; the result is 0.382 or 38.2% (233 divided by 610 gives you 0.381967.
All these ratios, apart from 50% (which is not officially part of the Fibonacci sequence), are calculated based on relationships within this number sequence.
The golden ratio can be found in various places in nature as well. This includes spiral patterns of seashells (like nautilus shells), the arrangement of leaves on a plant stem, the petals of certain flowers, and the structure of pinecones; it's also often observed in art and architecture, such as in the proportions of the Mona Lisa and the Parthenon, where artists intentionally incorporated it for aesthetic appeal.
Now, as you can tell, the Fibonacci isn’t just some lines and numbers someone made up. It’s in everything you encounter. It’s on charts. It’s in nature. It’s in geometry. It’s even in HUMAN DNA.
Fibonacci Retracements vs. Fibonacci Extensions
Remember when I said, “price often pulls back into this zone right before extending in a bullish pattern.” ???
That’s because Fibonacci Retracement, sometimes confused with Fibonacci Extension, is the act of price level pulling back to the Golden Zone. The Fibonacci Extension is when price level continues to move in a bullish pattern after pulling back to the Golden Zone.
For example, if a stock goes from $10 to $20, then back to $13. The move from $20 to $13 is the retracement. If the price starts rallying again and goes to $30, that is the extension.
Limitations of Using Fibonacci Retracement Levels
While the retracement levels suggest potential areas for support or resistance, there’s no guarantee that the price will reverse to these levels. This is why traders often look for additional confirmation signals such as price action and patterns. A double bottom in this Golden Zone coupled with an RSI divergence is a very good indication the price will move after entering the Golden Zone.
!!!Fun Fact!!!
Fibonacci retracement levels were named after Italian mathematician Leonardo Pisano Bigollo, famously known as Leonardo Fibonacci. However, Fibonacci did not create the Fibonacci sequence. Instead, Fibonacci introduced these numbers to western Europe after learning about them from Indian merchants. Some scholars suggest Fibonacci retracement levels were formulated in ancient India between 700 BCE and 100 AD, while others estimate between 480-410 BCE.2
Cheers everyone!!! Happy Trading 😊
SMCI - Can Super Micro Computer regain trust of investors?Super Micro Computer received non compliance note from Nasdaq for failing to timely file its annual report for the period ending June 30 by the Aug. 29 deadline.
The company said it had 60 days to file the report or submit a plan to regain compliance.
After Hindenburg short report and notice from Nasdaq, much negativity already priced in. If they can file their report for ending June 30, rebound started from just below 400 , might reach 530-usd (61.8%). In the end, revenue growth for fiscal year is expected at 80%.
BTC bubbling against 3 MAJOR fibs going into FOMC wednesdayStrong bull push from 52.8k Genesis fib to sister Genesis at 61,256
There is also a fib from the "Top Down" wave just below at 60,820
Lastly there is a fib of the "Covid Sitmulus" wave hovering at 60,298
Thus we are hovering just below a MAJOR resistance zone.
Within the next day (of this posting time) is the FED decision.
This FOMC meeting is to start the RATE CUT process tomorrow.
Bulls should be CAREFUL here.
Bears should be CAREFUL here.
Sheep may stay careLESS here.
.
Below are links to the 3 fib sets in full.
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"Genesis" wave (called every top since 2015 including our last one):
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"Covid Stimulus" wave (caused by FED printing and often reacts with FOMC)
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"TopDown" wave (from the top, nailed the lower high from 73k):
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$ETH | Buy Trade | Market Exec | Technical Confluences:
- Price action bounced off the 150% Fibo Extension & 61% Fibo Retracement
- Price action is at an Interest Zone area
Fundamental Confluences:
- Nothing much happening in the Crypto space at the moment and it will follow general market sentiment
- The main mover for Crypto space now will be on the FED interest rate cuts which cheapens cost of money and the US election
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Will be entering an entry here for CRYPTOCAP:ETH & target the $3,244 levels.
Will cut the position if it breaks the $2047 levels and will buy again if it's close to the support trendline and the Demand Zone.
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$GOOG | Watchlist | Buy Limit |Technical Confluences:
- Price is at Oversold levels from 1H all the way till the Weekly timeframe
- Price just broke the 38% Fibo Retracement level (Orange)
- Price bounced off the 61% Fibo Extension (Blue)
- Price is also in a strong Interest zone; previously the highs of end-2021
- However, price has also broken through a Support trendline
Fundamental Confluences:
- No doubt, Google is a strong name in the tech and now, AI space
- Due to their dominance in many sectors, they are bound to face many kinds of regulatory scrutiny and lawsuits from anti-trust laws etc.
- Revenue streams moving forward may also be affected from the court's hearings
- Considering that Generative AI is picking up traction, will it impact Google's core internet search business activity? Google will definitely still be there just facing stiffer competition
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As market is consolidating and rotation out of the tech and AI strategy, I will also bide my time and not rush to get into holding this tech dominant force.
It will be wait and watch story and orders have been set to buy some within the $115 - $130 range.
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$DXY | SilverEdge Insights |Technical Confluences:
Price action is in Oversold conditions in the Daily and Weekly Timeframe. Likely to see some consolidation of positioning here.
Price action broke out of an Upward Sloping Parallel Channel and cleared itself out of the that Interest Zone too. Likely will see a test to re-enter that Channel due to Oversold conditions.
Elliot wave count shows it is trying to compete Wave C (expected target would be to 71% Fibo Extension levels - possible to test the 100% Fibo level)
A new Downward Sloping Parallel Channel is in play now and Price action needs to see it break the mid of the Channel to see a substantial move downwards
Fundamental Confluences:
With the expected cuts, market started unwinding their long USD positions and it is reflected in the TVC:DXY
The extent of Wave C will really depend on how quick and reactive is the FED in cutting rates (the higher chances of 50bps cuts; the likelier we will see USD get sold.
Building into next week, we are likely to see some traders cover their short USD positions as they size down before NFP data.
However, if there is any gyration on the geopolitical front or US elections, it is possible to see the TVC:DXY reverse back to the top of the Downward Sloping Parallel Channel and top out at the Interest Zone area again
$NZDUSD | Sell Trade | Market Exec |Technical Confluences:
Price action is in Overbought conditions for Daily and Weekly Timeframe
Price bounced off the 38% Fibo retracement
Price is also rejecting the Resistance trendline
Price action also reversed away from an Interest Zone
Fundamental Confluences:
With all other Central Banks in the DM space wanting to cut rates, it negates off the yield premium that NZD would be getting against USD
Market is consolidating after all the USD sell-off and profit-taking mood is here now
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Took a short position here targeting the 38% Fibo extension level while will look to cut above the Interest Zone. Risk/Reward ratio is at 2.41.
Price should not break above the Resistance trendline to affirm the recent price has topped out.
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CAMS 3 YEAR BREAKOUT 🎉 CAMS Breakout of 3 Years! 🚀
CAMS: CAMS is India's largest Mutual Fund Transfer Agency, providing services and statements for mutual funds, AIFs, insurance companies, banks, and NBFCs.
I'm excited to share my analysis on CAMS, showcasing a promising long-term positional buy:
Current Market Price: 4186
Stop Loss: 3000
Targets: 4780 and 6500
Analysis and Reasoning:
Pattern: Rounding Bottom Breakout
Breakout Timeframe: Monthly
Calculation: The rounding bottom spans from 2037 to 4067, indicating a potential gain of almost 2000 points. This projects a target of approximately 6100 (4067 + 2000).
This milestone is a testament to my dedication, hard work, and strategic planning in market analysis. I'm passionate about identifying and leveraging market opportunities to achieve financial goals.
Note: I am not a SEBI registered analyst. Please consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
#Achievement #Success #Milestone #CAMS #MarketAnalysis #InvestmentStrategy #RoundingBottom #Breakout #LongTermInvestment #FinancialPlanning
Trading Idea of week 35 - S&P500 - TradingMasteryHubWelcome to the TradingMasteryHub Trading Ideas!
Are you ready to gear up for the upcoming week? Join us as we dive into a detailed analysis to uncover top trading opportunities that could potentially boost your trading account. We’ll break down our strategy, defining precise Entries, managing Risk, and pinpointing the optimal Exit zones—steps that can transform your trading performance. Whether you’re just starting out or looking to fine-tune your approach, these insights are crafted to help you on your path to mastering the markets.
S&P 500 Poised to Break New All-Time Highs!
The S&P 500 has climbed back above its long-term uptrend (green trend line) that’s been in play since early November 2023. The current all-time high (ATH) of 5,680.4, set on July 16th, also marked the beginning of a mid-term downtrend (red trend line). However, two weeks ago, we witnessed a significant breakout from this downtrend, accompanied by high volume, which also reestablished the long-term uptrend. The last four trading days have been range-bound between key support (green) and resistance (blue) zones, with a stable volume profile (orange box) in between.
If the price manages to break through the key resistance zone (blue), new ATHs are highly likely. This presents a clear and compelling trading opportunity that we’re excited to share with you.
How to Turn This into a 5-Star Setup!
Before we rush into a trade, excited by the prospect of bullish momentum, it’s crucial to do our homework. This means waiting for multiple confirmations before entering the trade:
1. The Trend is Your Friend: The chart shows different trends depending on the time frame. We’re trading on a 15-minute chart, where the uptrend is clear. But we also need to confirm that the higher time frame (above our execution trend) is in an uptrend and not in a consolidation phase following a longer-term downtrend.
- Box Checked: We saw a breakout from the mid-term downtrend on August 15th with high volume (RVOL > 3) and a 15-minute close above the last higher low of that downtrend on August 19th, also with high volume.
2. We Need New Bullish Momentum: To hit new ATHs, we require strong buying pressure. This could come from a catalyst like favorable news (e.g., interest rate cuts by the Fed) or a technical breakout above the key resistance zone (blue).
- Box Checked: We’ll look for a 15-minute close above the blue zone, RVOL > 3 at the breakout, and ideally, a U.S. market opening above the previous day’s Volume Profile high to confirm a trending day.
- Plus: Price must be above both the session VWAP and 2-day VWAP.
- Bonus: An additional catalyst in the form of a market-moving news event.
3. We Need Patience: Only when all the above criteria are met should we enter the trade.
- Entry: After a 15-minute candle closes above the blue zone, but only if the risk/reward ratio is >1.3 up to Target 1.
- Risk Management: Stop Loss (SL) at 5,624.7, just below Friday’s Pivot R1 minus 6 points for market noise. Take Profit (TP) Target 1 is set at 5,678, just below Pivot R2 (also the 1.618 Fib Extension), where we’ll scale out 50% of the position and move the SL to the entry level, making the trade risk-free.
- Profit Target 2 (50%): This will likely be around 5,730, just below the 2.618 Fib Extension. If we don’t see new ATHs, TP Target 2 will be triggered by a close below the highest green 15-minute candle.
4. We Need Discipline: Trading only when all conditions are met will give us an edge in the long run.
- Discipline: Sticking to your rules is crucial for consistent trading. Without discipline, you lose the ability to analyze and refine your edge, leaving you at the mercy of emotional decisions.
5. We Need to Review Our Trades: Keeping a Trading Journal is essential for learning from both mistakes and successes. We’ll provide another e-Learning session focused on this vital topic. A simple journal can significantly improve your trading.
Always Have a Plan B!
Sometimes Plan A doesn’t play out. That’s why it’s important to have a Plan B—a slightly less optimal, but still viable, 4-star setup.
In this case, if the breakout above the blue zone doesn’t occur and the market reverses towards the green zone, we might consider a short trade instead. But again, we need a separate checklist:
1. Range Trades Need a History: The market must test key zones (green and blue) more than twice each to confirm a range.
- Confirmation: More than two touches of the green and red zones have already occurred.
2. We Need Bearish Momentum: A bearish environment is necessary for a return to the range. This could be triggered by a negative catalyst (e.g., lower unemployment rates) or a breakdown below VWAP.
- Box Checked: We need a 15-minute candle close below both session VWAP and 2-day VWAP, RVOL > 3, and the market ranging within the Volume Profile.
3. We Need Patience: Enter the trade only when all conditions are met.
- Entry: After a 15-minute candle closes below both VWAPs, with a risk/reward ratio >1.7 up to TP Target 1.
- Risk Management: SL at 5,647, just above Friday’s Pivot R1 plus 6 points for noise. TP Target 1 at 5,602, just above Pivot P (0.382 Fib retracement), where we’ll close 100% of the position.
4. We Need Discipline: As always, sticking to the plan is key.
5. We Need to Review Our Trades: Keeping track of your trades ensures you learn and improve over time.
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Conclusion and Recommendation
By focusing on clear trends, momentum, and discipline, you can capitalize on high-probability trading setups like the ones we’ve outlined here. However, it's crucial to understand that not every 5-star setup will be a winner. Even the most promising setups don’t guarantee success every time. The true key to long-term profitability lies in consistently following a well-defined strategy and maintaining a favorable risk/reward ratio. Over time, this disciplined approach can lead to steady profits, helping you grow your trading account while minimizing losses.
Having a solid Plan B also keeps you prepared for whatever the market throws your way. With these strategies, you’re not just following the market—you’re mastering it.
Can’t Get Enough? Don’t Miss Out!
Subscribe to stay updated on all our latest trading ideas and strategies. Share your thoughts in the comments, and let’s build a community of traders who are committed to learning, growing, and succeeding together. Your journey to market mastery is just beginning, and we’re here to guide you every step of the way!
What You’ll Learn:
- In-depth market analysis
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TradingMasteryHub
$BTC | Sell Trade | Market Exec |Technical Confluences:
- Price action is considered at Overbought conditions in both Daily and H4 Timeframes
- Price action is bouncing off the 78% Fibo retracement line
- Aiming for a retracement to the Fibo Extension's 61% or 78%
Fundamental Confluences:
- The crypto market space has no new impetus at the moment and is in consolidation mode after the risk-on rallies
- Market sentiment is positive with FED cutting rate, but if FED cut rates, what does it mean? Something is wrong with the markets that the FED needs to cut rate.
- In the view that the risk-on rally is overdone now.
$USDJPY | Buy Trade | Market Exec | Technical Confluences:
- Price has been trying to consolidate at these prices
- Prices have bounced off the Interest Zone but will face Resistance Trendlines and interest zones above
Fundamental Confluences:
- Similarly, like the earlier FX:USDCHF post
- Market seems to have overdone their expectation of many rate cuts and based on how FED normally reacts, they are more reactive than pre-emptive.
- In that sense, the Jackson Hole event this Friday may disappoint markets if Powell sticks to his affirmation that Sept cut is highly likely but any other cuts will remain data-dependent (If I'm wrong, then we will cut it if it breaks the 2024 low)
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Taking on a short punt on the FX:USDJPY long trade before Jackson Hole event.
It will be a digital event trade. Make or break.
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$DIS | Allocation | Market Exec |Technical Confluences:
- Price action has bounced off the Demand Zone and a Short-Term Trendline
- Price action seems to be strongly supported at these levels for now
- Few Interest Zones above the current price action and will need to see a proper break above that to go above the 100% Fibo Extension
Fundamental Confluences:
- Disney has a strong moat in the entertainment industry, driven by its vast portfolio of iconic brands, intellectual property (IP), and global reach.
- Earnings are recovering with growth potential in the their streaming services via Disney+ and further expansion of Disneyland parks in China
- FCF has not been good recently due to debt repayment, park expansions and streaming content investments which will target further revenue growth
- Development in it's streaming content and reinstatement of dividend announcements should be monitored
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Have allocated this into my portfolio previously and will be looking to hold this for the Long-Term at least to the 150% Fibo extension range.
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GOLD will rise by +300% in only 3 years! (Better than Bitcoin)I am pretty confident that GOLD will rise by +300% in price in only 3 years! Is gold a better investment than Bitcoin at this moment? Should you sell BTC and buy GOLD? Definitely yes, and I will tell you why!
Gold was in a sideways consolidation period from 2011 to 2024. And this year, in March 2024, the price finally made a strong breakout bullish candle on the monthly chart that changed everything! The big players have a lot of liquidity and then cannot move large amounts of money from one asset class to another with a single order. Also, for them, it's not best to buy all assets at the same time. In 2024, we see that big players are hugely interested in gold again, so this should be your main focus.
Why can Gold go 300% in 3 years and Bitcoin cannot? That would be around 210,000 USD per Bitcoin in 2027, and we know that this is impossible to happen as Bitcoin is statistically dropping every third year by 70% - 90%. Of course, big players are using this high volatility to buy cheap Bitcoin and to force retail investors to sell in a huge loss. They will do it again, as it's extremely profitable for them. Most likely, the price of Bitcoin in 2027 will be below 70k!
From a technical perspective, on the monthly chart we can see that the price of GOLD is inside this ascending parallel channel (since the year 2000). The probability of touching the top of the ascending channel is very high at this moment. From the Elliott Wave perspective, gold is starting an impulse wave (3)! Usually, waves 3 are the strongest! Another indication that huge news is coming for GOLD.
Let me know what you think about my analysis in the comment section, and please hit boost and follow for more ideas. Trading is not hard if you have a good coach! Thank you, and I wish you successful trades.
$SOFI | Allocation | Market Exec |Technical Confluences:
- Price action has bounced off a 78% Fibo retracement
- Below the 78% Fibo retracement is also been a Demand Zone which breaking it would like lead to a new all time low
- For price action to move up higher, it needs to break above the Interest Zone (@ 61% Fibo) and also the resistance trendline
- Upon breaking that, it's next resistance would be the Supply Zone area above
Fundamental Confluences:
- SoFi has shown impressive revenue growth but struggled with profitability, posting net losses due to high operating expenses and investments in growth.
- The path to profitability is improving as the company scales and focuses on higher-margin products, but consistent positive earnings have yet to be realized.
- They have historically reported negative FCF but recent quarters have shown improvements. The company’s ability to generate positive FCF will be critical to sustaining its growth without needing to rely on external financing.
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I have previously allocated to NASDAQ:SOFI before as I feel this company is a high-growth potential with promising narrative as explained above.
Will be happy to add if there is again a dip in the price.
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Gold is set to rise - Bullish Momentum Ahead!Welcome to another analysis, where we dive into the latest market trend and chart the potential path ahead for GOLD !
So is gold a good long-term investment? In my view, the short answer is YES .
Gold is likely to continue rising in the coming years due to several fundamental factors. Firstly, ongoing global economic uncertainty, including inflation concerns and geopolitical tensions, often drives investors toward gold as a safe-haven asset. Central banks around the world are also increasing their gold reserves, reflecting confidence in its long-term value.
If we examine the consolidation period between 2016 and 2019, we can see that the breakout from this consolidation initiated Elliott Wave 3.
What's particularly noteworthy is how well the technical indicators have aligned throughout this process.
The Fibonacci extension tool accurately predicted where gold would peak in 2020. After reaching that peak, gold entered a new period of consolidation and sideways movement as we moved into the new years.
Once again, it appears we've entered another phase of Elliott Wave 3 and will probably soon have a minor correction or sideways time period before going into wave 5.
Looking ahead, my long-term projection for gold suggests a potential peak between $3,200 and $3,500, likely around 2026.
Only time will tell!
Thanks for reading, and make sure to follow me here on tradingview and on X for more updates as we progress: @PuppyNakamoto
CAPITALCOM:GOLD TVC:GOLD MCX:GOLD1!
Gold is set to rise - Bullish Momentum Ahead!Welcome to another analysis, where we dive into the latest market trend and chart the potential path ahead for GOLD !
So is gold a good long-term investment? In my view, the short answer is YES .
Gold is likely to continue rising in the coming years due to several fundamental factors. Firstly, ongoing global economic uncertainty, including inflation concerns and geopolitical tensions, often drives investors toward gold as a safe-haven asset. Central banks around the world are also increasing their gold reserves, reflecting confidence in its long-term value.
If we examine the consolidation period between 2016 and 2019, we can see that the breakout from this consolidation initiated Elliott Wave 3.
What's particularly noteworthy is how well the technical indicators have aligned throughout this process.
The Fibonacci extension tool accurately predicted where gold would peak in 2020. After reaching that peak, gold entered a new period of consolidation and sideways movement as we moved into the new years.
Once again, it appears we've entered another phase of Elliott Wave 3 and will probably soon have a minor correction or sideways time period before going into wave 5.
Looking ahead, my long-term projection for gold suggests a potential peak between $3,200 and $3,500, likely around 2026.
Only time will tell!
Thanks for reading, and make sure to follow me here on tradingview and on X for more updates as we progress: @PuppyNakamoto
CAPITALCOM:GOLD TVC:GOLD MCX:GOLD1!