The Magic of Fibonacci- Remember this older chart ( December 18 - 2022 ):
- Please feel free to check it to understand the new one 👇👇
- BTC Finalized his movement at exactly 161.8% Fibo.
- BTC did what it had to do at the perfection of the Fibonacci Law.
- when the FUDs and Bad News not influence the trend.
- No need any Magic Ball, we just have to follow the beauty of Fibonacci.
- Everything is in Graph, this is a bit advanced trading.
- This is one of the core's method of big hands Trade ( with Volumes ).
- Feel free to DYOR about Fibonacci extensions and Retracements and learn about it.
-- The more that you read, the more things you will know!
Happy Tr4Ding !
Fibonacci Extension
Gold ForecastGold Forecast
Gold is in a bullish cycle, and we will look for long opportunities when we see a clear 3 legs-down corrective structure. Unfortunately, the connector (B) of the current (A)(B)(C) is too shallow and it does not retrace enough according to our strategy to allow us to enter when the price reaches the IZ (grey zone). We do expect the price will bounce from the IZ, but it can be only the connector from a deeper (W)(X)(Y), so we are not going to take this trade.
What to do? 2 scenarios:
-The prices resume the bullish cycle ->We should wait for the price to break the 1,960 level before looking for buying opportunities.
-The price makes a deeper correction-> A new IZ will be created, and we will analyze its structure to check whether it is tradable or not.
In any case, we will keep you updated on the TRS community
Please remember to do not to risk more than 2% of your account on each trading idea
Feb 24 CADJPY Short-term bear before LONG PositionMTF Analysis
Monthly TF had a big push up from tapping the 38.2 Monthly Fib retracement.
On a weekly TF, this retracement bounce on a Monthly 38.2 Fib is a bull run.
This weekly TF bull run has run out right at the previous month's high, previous week's high, and prev day's high -- which was the best entry point had i done Wyckoff analysis earlier
Anyway, since price has ran out of gas on this weekly bull run, it's actually about to break the weekly/daily trendline it's been bouncing off of.
My bias is that price will retrace from a Weekly TF perspective to the 38.2 weekly fib level which also perfectly aligns with the previous week's low & an H4 imbalance/inefficiency.
Fundamentals to support my bias.
JPY had a good inflation YoY rate this morning.
CAD had some wobly numbers from yesterday's economic updates.
CABLE H&S UPDATECABLE has been very interesting lately. Sterling has surprised with decent data but the overall outlook for the sterling fundamentally remains the same, the market is expecting one more rate hike.
The strong data however is creating a very RANGY environment for this pair. We saw this when the last bearish move was RETESTED all the way to the 68 fib zone.
My bias on this pair remains BEARISH however, and i believe that the USDX will continue to control the OVERALL DIRECTION of this currency pair. From a short term standpoint we can see a HEAD AND SHOULDERS pattern forming, with the HEAD being the afformentioned 68 retest of our bearish momentum. this is a strong indication that the pair will continue to move downward, so long as our NECKLINE is protected by price action.
Look for a formation of a RIGHT SHOULDER here potentially coming, before the true trend takes over.
Trail your stops on this pair folks it has been swinging back and forth and i expect it to CONTINUE to do so.
CABLE WEAKNESS CONT.GBP/USD swing has played out almost as expected
CABLE touched the 50 fib, dropped, then came back up and tested the next fib zone at 68
Price action rejected nicely at this point followed by very nice bearish momentum
CURENTLY, IT APPEARS AS IF GBPUSD IS RETESTING THE TREND INTENSITY AND SHOULD NOT BE RETESTING AS DEEP
Target is painted by our FIB EXTENSION
Keep your charts clean and keep your trading simple. stick to your plans
WC1202 EURUSD Outlook: Waiting for reversal to position LONGPrice is at a key zone atm.
Markups and notes on the chart but essentially I am waiting for price to signal for a long entry -- potentially at the low of previous month or at the H4 OB / unmitigated demand area within the key zone (blue highlight). The 50% of the H4 OB is in confluence with the 27ext. This area is also a 50's level. Either way, I am looking to see price tap either and rocket up.
If price doesn't want to further go down, and my bias is wrong, we are just going to wait for a break & retest of the 0700 level and hold to the upside @1.1200 area
LINKUSDT is testing the support right nowLINKUSDT is testing a key level at the $9.1 area, where the market has previously encountered resistance.
This level is important because it has acted as a significant point of resistance in the past, and traders will be closely watching the price action to see if the level is broken. If the price of LINKUSDT is able to break through this key level and establish new support, this could signal a potential bullish trend.
To apply Plancton's Rules in this scenario, traders should wait for the new liquidity and a new breakout to be confirmed before taking a long position. This means waiting for the price to break through the key resistance level and establish new support, which can provide more reliable signals for traders.
So, According to Plancton's strategy , we can set a nice order
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Keep in mind.
🟣 Purple structure -> Monthly structure.
🔴 Red structure -> Weekly structure.
🔵 Blue structure -> Daily structure.
🟡 Yellow structure -> 4h structure.
⚫️ black structure -> <= 1h structure.
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Follow the Shrimp 🦐
Bitcoin looks ready for a runBitcoin reacted at the 886 level as shown in last outlookbut came right back up, ignoring every potential sell zone in its way and is now about to break the area.
Some kind of "disbelief" move is very likey to happen at this point with a quick rally to 30k as a very important psichological level and has many fibonacci confluence.
Overall market sentiment still seems to be bearish, the more people doubt this move, the higher it will go.
Still thinking the bootom is yet to be put, if we break 30k i might change my mind.
NASDAQ 100 Futures for the week 2/21 to 2/14
The clear up trend and the symmetry of the prior swing pattern have been broken.
The resistance turned support so well. It’s possible to see another 100% extension as bulls’ target price.
However, considering what is shown in the previous point and the descending triangle that the market is forming now, I stay neutral at this moment.
Conclusion:
1. Long only if the market up breaks the descending triangle.
2. Short only if the market drops below the prior low.
3. What to do when the price is going between center line and prior low?
- The price would be under the center line, meaning the market is more bearish like.
- But the prior low has not been broken so the down trend has not been confirmed.
→ The direction is not clear, and the market is likely to go sideways. Or only enter short position.
**Not Financial Advice**
The information contained in this article is not intended as, and should not be understood as financial advice. You should take independent financial advice from a professional who is aware of the facts and circumstances of your individual situation.
GOLD BEAR FLAG UPDATEOur GOLD BEAR FLAG literally could not have played out any better. USD strength is being bolstered by multiple good data releases but that final rate hike and impending recession is on the horizon, gold eventually will be the best buy BUT Anyone who was not expecting this drop is realistically suffering from "Over-Analysis" as this example of a BEAR FLAG is so TEXTBOOK that it could be used as a "Forex Tutorial" on what a proper bear flag should look like. From here on out GOLD is essentially in a FREE FALL. Any buyers are going to be completely and utterly demolished, until a BOTTOM is found and this bottom isnt going to come EASILY.
FIB extension tells the clear story, gold has a LONG WAY TO GO FROM HERE
Do not get caught on the wrong side of this falling knife. Looking to enter long term buy swings at key fib levels: 1780, 1730
DOT / USDT 4H CHART - Targets and Stoploss!Hello everyone, let's look at the DOT to USDT chart on a 4-hour timeframe. As you can see, the price is moving in the uptrend channel indicated by the yellow lines.
Let's start with the support line and as you can see the first support in the near future is $6.69, if the support is broken then the next support is $6.50, $6.36 and $6.21.
Now let's move to the resistance line, as you can see the first resistance is $6.69, if you manage to break it, the next resistance will be $7.14 and $7.37.
Looking at the CHOP indicator, we see that we have a lot of energy for the next move, the MACD indicates a local uptrend, while the RSI has approached the upper end of the range, which may give an impending price rebound.
SPX - Just a "correction" so farThe correction in the markets last week may appear steep & violent, especially for some stocks. However, on the bigger scale of things, SPX is still looking like a "normal" correction (within a bull trend) so far.
In fact, a few factors could be aligning for a possible bounce in the near term:
1.SPX closed a "dragon-fly" candlestick last Friday, signifying some buying towards the close of the session
2.A bullish divergence between price and RSI could be emerging
3.So far, the magnitude of the current retracement (CD) is similar to that of the previous retracement (AB), ie CD swing is the 100% fibonacci extension of AB, projected from point C.
4. The pullback to D is 50% fib retracement of the BC upswing (still within reasonable limits of a "correction")
There is no real reason "panic" yet, unless we have SPX going below 4000 (worst case 3950) again for a start.
Let's see how this week will play out.
Disclaimer: Just my 2 cents and not a trade advice. Kindly do your own due diligence and trade according to your own risk tolerance and don't forget that money management is important! Take care and Good Luck!
WC0213 NZDCAD Outlook: M-W LongMTF Analysis
Monthly TF perspective
Pattern: Inverted Head & Shoulders
-Right shoulder forming at the Low of previous Month January. Price is also at the previous week's level.
-Looking at the next 3 months might be LONG til pattern's completed.
Weekly TF perspective
- My bias for Weekly Fibonacci retracement level for violent push upward is at 38.2 -- this retracement level also coincides with the downtrend Daily TF Fib 27 ext level.
- Many confluence at the 00 levels on H4 and H1 OB's and wick on wick area.
- .8350 is in confluence with the weekly key level
Daily TF
- .0875 / quarter level coincides with Daily Fib's 27 ext
Bias:
-Price will reach .8400 and will do a stop hunt until the 50's (.8350) before going up.
-Looking at the next 3 months might be LONG til pattern's completed.
GOLD BEAR FLAGGOLD CUP & HANDLE on the weekly tells the overall story. Gold is getting ready to make a bottom, Before new highs
Right now we see a BEAR FLAG that was formed, with a BROKEN NECKLINE. This is a nice continuation and frames our overall trajectory for GOLD very nicely.
Cup and Handle on the weekly is showing that a retest of a bottom will happen before a new top is created and the pattern we see here is a medium term sell signal into said bottom.
USDJPY RESTEST USDJPY the famous carry trade is about to, carry trade.
Trend reversal is basically all but confirmed, in the medium term, with USD being propped up by MASSSSIVEEEEE job data, along with the inverse Head & Shoulders that is being formed. Some bullish momentum should resume in this key support area.
NASDAQ 100 Futures short term goal
Trend: Up trend. Although the market failed going up to the next channel, it's still in the up trend channel. Better not to do a counter trade.
Symmetry: I use 12119 as a centerline for the symmetry. Let's look at a larger picture on the daily chart. 12119 is the key R/S line and also the 0.5 retracement line of prior swing from A to B, which I found meaningful most of the time. Below the centerline, the market is seen weaker; above the centerline, the market is seen stronger. Therefore, I will set my short-term price goal at 13485.
What if the up trend channel broke?
There are two situations.
1. The price is below the up trend channel but still above the centerline. → Uncertainties become more. Better wait for the price to be back to the channel or more clear signals to enter a trade.
2. The price drops even more below the centerline. → If the price drops below the center line, I see the symmetry broke. By then I will pay more attention to possible triangle forming.
**Not Financial Advice**
The information contained in this article is not intended as, and should not be understood as financial advice. You should take independent financial advice from a professional who is aware of the facts and circumstances of your individual situation.
MATICMonthly MATIC chart shows MATIC breaking the 8 month marco down trend line since 2021 highs.
Should be on our way to wave 5 now, ending around $9.50
The Ultimate Algorand (ALGO) Analysis - Bottom $0.1618On the 22nd June 2019, Algorand opened at a price of around $3.28 on Coinbase, and slightly higher on Binance.
Over the next few months, it dropped to around $0.1648 (maybe $0.1618 on some exchanges) and then $0.097 at the Covid crisis.
Before the 2021 bull run, in November, ALGO's Support level was around $0.2247 (Point X of the harmonic) before it began its ascend.
In early February of 2021, ALGO topped around $1.8427 (Point A of the harmonic)
This increase is by an exact amount of $1.618, the main number in the Fibonacci sequence.
Coincidence? I don't think so.
After it dropped to Point B of the harmonic, around $0.67, which is a very strong Support/Resistance level.
Notice the number - 0.67 is exactly 2/3 of 100.
If I multiply 0.6667 by 0.6667 I get 0.44444.
0.6667 - 0.44444 = 0.223, the EXACT NUMBER of Algorand's Support level before the bullrun.
OK, now this is getting crazy.
Algorand then increased by 161.8% (A-B) to create Point C (around 2.5589).
It then dropped to around $1.5144 - the 0.444 support level (which I have marked "S"). (Remember that 0.4444 number from earlier? Yeah.....)
The price was then manipulated up to around $2.99-$3.
This manipulation point is a whole new conversation involved with even more complex numbers and I think its best we avoid this in this argument, since it doesn't affect this current idea.
ANYWAY, if we ignore the manipulation which we usually do in these circumstances and create Point C as our harmonic level, we can see that BC is a +1.618% of AB.
Now if we draw a fib between ZERO and A we get 0.618 which is at point B
OR
if we draw a fib between $0.223 (Start of 2021 bull run) and $1.84 ish (Point A), we get the retracement value around 0.707 which is half of the value of 1.414, and 1.414 is the square root of 2.
So AB is (XA x half of the square root of 2) and the next move entails a 1.618 move of that figure.
Crazy maths...
Anyway, In a standard AB=CD HARMONIC PATTERN, we have 3 different variations, AB=CD, AB=CDx1.272 or AB=CDx1.618.
The most common one is 1.272, which is the square root of 1.618.
Now what happens if we measure BC x 1.272?
The answer is a price of ALGO of $0.1618.
As soon as I saw that it hit me.
That's the bottom.
$0.1618, the Fibonacci golden number will likely be the bottom of Algorand in this cycle.
So what is the profit target?
So I checked a few measurements.
I tried CD x 1.618 (if we hypothetically say that $0.1618 is the bottom of Algorand this cycle) and that gave me a figure of around $4.03.
I also did (All Time High minus All Time Low) x 1.272 (the square root of 1.618)
and that gave me a similar figure of around $4.03.
OH ALSO, one last thing...
Algorand is currently in a Bear Flag, the target is around $0.223-0.226 to Buy the bounce. It will go lower around Christmas time, but if you look at the 1.414 level (square root of 2) of the Bear Flag, it also reaches the same point around $0.1618!
Still according to planAll is going according to plan, I don't believe we are yet out of correction waters. There needs to be a healthy pull back to accommodate the growth that is coming up, and we have yet to see the completion of the final Elliot wave. Historically pull backs of this magnitude reach the 2.0 fib level but I am planning my take profits at the 1.68 level.
Pivotal week (or 2) ahead for the S&P The S&P500 / ES is sitting right at a critical point which I believe will break this week or next
The weekly chart shows that the S&P is now above most key moving averages, including the 200 moving average (displayed in black), the 20 moving average (displayed in white) and the 50 moving average (displayed in yellow). Also it has broken above the upper resistance trend line (displayed in red), these are all obviously very bullish but a few major headwinds remain that may upset this upwards momentum.
Price last week touched the 100 moving average (displayed in blue) but then rejected back down to end up finishing right at the Fib Extension 0.236 level. Ironically the 100 moving average has been a menacing level that has been difficult for the S&P to break through, 7 weeks ago and 21 weeks ago exactly the same touch and rejection of the 100ma occurred. Further to this we are about to enter one of the most bearish seasonal periods of the year for the S&P, I've included a seasonality indicator in my chart which shows 3 year, 6 year and 9 year tendencies and they all have exactly the same downwards pattern starting in February. The indicator below the Seasonality scan is RVI (relative volatility index), this is good for measuring both the volatility along with direction. Inline with what the market has been doing the past few years the RVI had been generally trending up and created a support line that was largely unbroken from end 2018 - Jan 2022, and since been broken the RVI is now showing a downwards trend and instead of a support line there is a resistance level over head that price is close to approaching.
The last indicator on the chart includes Larry Williams Vix_Fix which had turned red recently (2 bars/weeks), signalling we are in historically low volatility period in the VIX, most traders know that large moves often follow periods of very low and/or contracting volatility. This last indicator also includes a display for the bond yield curve and this is currently shown in the maroon/deep red which confirms a fairly long period inverted curve which is also known as a precursor sign of recession and market sell off.
The recent closed weekly candle was an indecision candle so this week that is coming or perhaps the one that follows should tell a lot about where the market will be heading over the course of the next few months
A bullish bias would mean
Price this coming week will disregard the seasonal bearish tendency and instead break above both the 100ma and the 0.236 Fib and close the week above these levels.
A bearish bias would mean
Price has closed back below the resistance level on the chart (both price resistance & RVI resistance) and price has tracked the normal declining seasonal pattern that plays out around this time of the year.
I see more chart evidence of a coming decline than an incline but in any case we still need to wait for direction confirmation which should look like one of the above scenarios. So it is time to pay very close attention to the charts and In the week that follows the market direction confirmation signal I suspect we will see some large and fast moves of either sideline money coming into the market to cause one last blow off top before some kind of recession sell off later in the year or heavy selling as these key levels get rejected and the seasonal sell of takes hold.
WAVESUSD: Higher Timeframe Support Zone ReclaimedThere is currently an active Bullish trade setup on the Intraday Timeframers that could take it up about 20% but when looking at the context of the higher timeframe i can see the weekly candles reclaiming an old Congestion Zone which could set it up to make a macro recovery. In the scenario of a Macro Recovery i think it could go all the way back up to the 0.886 retrace and if it's feeling even more Bullish it could go all the way up to the 1.414 Extension.