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Fibonacci Extension

NDX / QQQ Resumes Downtrend But Approaches Multi-Year SupportPrimary Chart: Several NDX / QQQ Trendlines and Multi-Year Support Zone at $254-$267 SUMMARY : The downtrend has resumed since the consolidation pause in the days leading up to the FOMC presser on September 21, 2022. Shorter-term targets include June lows at $269-$270, and if June lows are violated, the next target range is $254-$267 on QQQ, which equates to $10,720 to $11,000 on NDX. This target range is supported by Fibonacci projections as well as a multi-year zone of support, which could lead to an interim (temporary) low. Importantly, watch for any undercut of the June 2022 low, and watch for a failed breakout below that level of support—which could lead to another countertrend rally or a period of sideways chop. The bear rally in July and August 2022 had even the bears scratching their heads with their tired paws—"tired" because this year has been anything but an easy ride for bears and bulls alike. In July and August 2022, AAII sentiment even showed some bears took off their furry suit and put on some horns, as the number of bears dropped as price continued to rip higher. But the more steadfast and patient bears were rewarded yet again after the August 16, 2022 peak. In the end, the entire summer's rally was a mirage, a rally that drew in many thinking the worst was finished. This is common in bear markets, with bear rallies in the Nasdaq in 2002 ripping 30-60% higher over weeks, and sometimes months. But now, the Nasdaq 100 NASDAQ:NDX NASDAQ:QQQ has resumed its downtrend decisively since the August 16, 2022, swing high. Every time a multi-day rally has appeared, sellers have pounced to flood the market with supply, sending the NDX / QQQ back on its downward path. The next target from a purely technical perspective appears to be the multi-year zone of support near $254/$255 up to $267 on QQQ, which equates to approximately $10,720 to $11,000 on NDX. This is not far below where price traded today. The Nasdaq 100 closed at 11,501.66 / QQQ at $280.07. This zone of support is also supported by Fibonacci analysis. Fibonacci projections show conservative targets for this leg of the decline around $255.68-$267.53 (Supplementary Chart A), which closely align with the multi-year zone of support (shown on the Primary Chart). Supplementary Chart A: Fibonacci Analysis with Projections Based on Structure of the Current Decline from August 2022 Highs Supplementary Chart B: Fibonacci Channel Showing Potential Target Assuming Bear Market Continues into Next Year The Fibonacci Channel is plotted on a logarithmic chart going back 22 years to 2000 approximately, and the lows in the 2000-2002 bear market. Coincidentally, the $228 price level at the 2.00 line coincides with the longer-term trendline support at about $225-$230 early next year —shown on the Primary Chart as the upward trendline, the lowest trendline on the chart. ________________________________________ Author's Comment: Thank you for reviewing this post and considering its charts and analysis. The author welcomes comments, discussion and debate (respectfully presented) in the comment section. Shared charts are especially helpful to support any opposing or alternative view. This article is intended to present an unbiased, technical view of the security or tradable risk asset discussed. Please note further that this technical-analysis viewpoint is short-term in nature. This is not a trade recommendation but a technical-analysis overview and commentary with levels to watch for the near term. This technical-analysis viewpoint could change at a moment's notice should price move beyond a level of invalidation. Further, proper risk-management techniques are vital to trading success. And countertrend or mean-reversion trading, e.g., trading a rally in a bear market, is lower probability and is tricky and challenging even for the most experienced traders. DISCLAIMER: This post contains commentary published solely for educational and informational purposes. This post's content (and any content available through links in this post) and its views do not constitute financial advice or an investment or trading recommendation, and they do not account for readers' personal financial circumstances, or their investing or trading objectives, time frame, and risk tolerance. Readers should perform their own due diligence, and consult a qualified financial adviser or other investment / financial professional before entering any trade, investment or other transaction.
NASDAQ:QQQShort
by SquishTrade
8
EURCHF TREND CHANNEL BREAK OR BOUNCE ?Pair: EURCHF Timeframe: 4H Analysis: Round number level, trend line, volume profile, support and resistance, trend channel break or bounce ————— Key Takeaway: Alot of bullish movement for the pair so we could see break of the trend channel although this momentum could be exhausted and we could bounce and reverse bearish ————— Level needed: need a close by — ————— Trade: Neutral RISK:REWARD — ————— DO NOT ENTER OUR SETUPS WITHOUT CONFIRMATION
by TheGoldRoom
EURUSD WILL WE BREAK OR BOUNCE ?Pair: EURUSD Timeframe: 4H Analysis: Round number level, trend line, volume profile, support and resistance, double top?, ascending triangle pattern ————— Key Takeaway: Price has reached resistance level and could possibly be forming a double top, if we do we will look for short trades. On the other hand EUR has been showing some signs of bullish steam so we could break, retest and continue bullish from broken resistance ————— Level needed: need a close by — ————— Trade: Neutral RISK:REWARD — ————— DO NOT ENTER OUR SETUPS WITHOUT CONFIRMATION
by TheGoldRoom
Long for Maximum 40 pointsHello Traders, I was trying to analyze this stock. Actually i need to share it when the "Bat Pattern" completed but i miss the point. It already achieved Level 'B' . So we are expecting it will going upside till the Final Target. Whatever Target i mention here it on the basis of Fibonacci , Trend-lines , an Harmonic. Stop loss at 100 1st Target -->130 2nd Target -->140 Final Target -->150 I hope my prediction will get success...... Regard ChandR
NSE:TATASTEELLong
by practicalStar12288
3
✨Golem GLM - On fire! +2000% | Bullish flag + Huge breakout! Golem is on fire! You really want to buy Golem right now because the bullish flag is breaking out and an ascending triangle on the GLMBTC pair also! How can you not love the name of the coin? But you definitely will with the massive profits! As per my Elliott Wave analysis, we are prepared for the third impulse wave to the upside. The third wave is usually the strongest, so you don't want to miss it. The ABC correction has been completed, and we are forming a bullish flag pattern that is currently breaking out. You often find ZigZags corrections in bullish flags.  1:1 FIB extension is the next profit target (wave 3). Look at my idea about the GLMBTC pair in the related section down below. For more analysis, hit "Like" and "Follow"!
Long
by UnknownUnicorn2537518
159
Irregular but effective setup for GoldAs we can see on the chart, WXY pattern is clear with an irregular X wave (because of yesterday's Fed news), but still valid and didn't break the low of wave W. A contracting triangle is forms wave B in the ABC pattern for wave W, even if a huge wick went out of it: closing above the downside of the triangle, this candle on H1 shows that the setup was still valid (second irregular form). Wave Y can be the extension of 0.618, 1 and fib level of wave W and X, to give a chance to this sideways trading market to take a direction. Wait for 1690 and 1700, Goodluck, Joe.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by joe-abdallah
2
EUR/JPY FINAL TP HIT!Trade Plan 1. Price was trending down so i wait for a break of my key level 2. Price broke below my Key level (1.425) 3. I placed a Fib tool from the last high to the low as we are trending down. 4. I wanted a second layer of confluence which was a fib level, the level had to line up with my Key level (1.425) before my trade idea is valid 5. Price retraced to 61.8 fib level and rejected so i entered the trade. 6. It took a couple of hours for my trade to hit tp.
Short
by Damianagbodza
1
SPX Breakeven 9/19/22Moved my SL too early and flushed out at BE. Not a lot of volume on SPX shown until 10:02am at the TDO. NAS showed the volume kick in just before the bell and 9:32am was the actual move up. NAS made a HL while SPX and US30 both made LL on the daily charts. Then on the 4H we saw the first up candle and price held inside of that candle with volume to the upside. Things to improve: Trade management, leave my SL alone, it's there for a reason. When risk is properly established then there should not be a reason to make any adjustments to it. Needed to practice a bit more patience. Things done well: The setup, building this hypothesis was well thought out. Both side of the possibility for a continued sell and a rejection buy were setup. Risk management, even if I'd loss the entire trade I was only wagering 0.25% on the trade
BLACKBULL:SPX500Long
by Cory4rex
1
USDCAD, extended wave to end soonUSDCAD has been trading in a zigzag structure (channel) with higher highs and higher lows on daily timeframe. It has reached a horizontal resistance zone. we can notice a WXYXZ Elliot structure, with ABC patterns in every impulse and X correction after it (11 waves in the channel). USDCAD is close to the end of the last extended wave C: we can notice in it 12345 Elliot waves structure. With Fibonacci extensions, wave 5 can reach 1.335 (or the rectangle we draw based on the fib extension). However, a head and shoulders pattern is recognized on m30, waiting for USDCAD to break the neckline with a candle closing below it to take the sell. Be careful with your risk management, the last extended wave can still reach 1.25 fib extension before ending. Goodluck everyone, Joe.
Short
by joe-abdallah
8
ETH, looks like a long way down. Hey everyone, just some quick TA. On HTF there is a H&S unfolding. Monthly open lost (1554) now opens the flood gates to lower prices. Based on fibs and where previous lows are it appears those lvls will be reached sooner rather then later. 1.618 lines up around $900 which also coincides with previous lows. This is not financial advice just what I’m seeing in the charts and what looks likely to play out. Also factoring in fed meeting next week on the 22nd with an expected .75 basis points. Don’t be surprised with a 100 basis point rise and markets to react negatively. Well that’s how I’m playing it. Good luck happy trading! NFA
COINBASE:ETHUSDShort
by SpaceCadetAcademy
A last chance for the Euro ?Under the US dollar pressure, EURUSD has been making lower lows and lower highs recently. However, RSI on the monthly chart is oversold for the 3rd time in this century. MACD is showing bullish divergence on multiple timeframes, and the EURUSD on H4 has just achieved a higher high this time with 5 impulse waves: the ABC correction is clear on the chart, wave C is nearly around 0.76 to 0.8 fib retracement. With today's good news on euro CPI and core CPI (higher than expected for both), we can give this currency a chance to retest the end of impulse wave 5, or even to make a higher high. Stoploss can go below the impulse wave 2 for some people, or below the lowest low (the beginning of the impulse wave). Note that on a long term perspective, USD is still stronger than EURO, we will just give eurusd a chance after the new high we saw lately. Goodluck everyone, Joe.
Long
by joe-abdallah