Fibonacci Extension
SPY To start leg up SPY seems to be showing bullish signals after the correction, Elliot correction wave is over and has finished in a keltner channel squeeze. (With volume dry up as well)
Retrace down to .618 or lower is possible from here before impulse wave starts, heading to Fibonacci extension points.
long matic to 2.16usdtmatic after a huge drop to .786 fib retracement level. most likely matic will pump towards the 2.16usdt. we will be using the 100% fib extension for finding target.
BCH Price Still Has A Potential To Reach $6k AreaLike majority of mid cap projects BCH is forming very similar crashing pattern as BTC did in 2018. Of course 2018 btc crash happened with different velocity and curve, but price did have some kind of bounce and sideways movement as BCH had this time.
If we extend fib. levels over 2018 bitcoin crash where level 1 sits at 2017 ATH and level 0 at the low, we can see that the price did first reach lo 0.618 retracement, then eventually crashed, closing the gabs above the low, only to have another breakout and pint point nailing level 4. fib. extension (69k). Time will tell very soon if BCH price will react to the same fib. retracement/extension levels, but if does, it would mean that the price would first climb just above 1k, then have an accumulation back below $200, then of to the races to 6k area where level 4 fib. extension level sits at. Imagine that, it would truly be an amazing alt season.
Remember that time is irrelevant here and no one knows when things will happen or for how is anything gonna take to play out. We can only speculate price areas based on historical price movement.
It is only a speculation, we need more time to really confirm all of this but when price is set for new ATHs after a major crash like this, it tends to react to above mentioned fib. levels.
I am not a financial advisor so non of this should be taken as a financial advise. Be well.
Between BlackRock and a TornadoThe connection between traditional finance and crypto is more closely linked than ever before as institutional demand for our treasured asset class rises rapidly. Last week we saw BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager with approximately $8.5 billion under management, endorse bitcoin by offering a spot bitcoin private trust to their U.S-based investors. Being the largest asset manager in the world, it could be likely that all of their competitors will quickly follow suit to ensure they also offer the capability to their clients.
To provide additional access, BlackRock also partnered with Coinbase to provide infrastructure for their institutional clients to invest in crypto assets. BlackRock’s industry leading portfolio management software, Aladdin, is used by over 200 of the world’s largest institutional investors and manages over $21 trillion in assets. Aladdin and Coinbase will combine forces to offer a seamless portfolio management system for crypto, with Coinbase handling the execution and custody of the assets whilst Aladdin will handle the portfolio management aspects all through the Aladdin interface. It could be argued this is a major step in proving the legitimacy of bitcoin, especially with BlackRock being the main influencer on ESG investing. It additionally showcases the demand for exposure to the asset from BlackRock’s institutional clients.
Tornado Cash – the popular mixing service that enables on-chain privacy – came under heavy fire last week from governments globally. The US Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Asset Control (OFAC) sanctioned the protocol – leading to any American using the site breaking sanction laws. The sanction was argued due to the allegedly high number of illicit funds being laundered through the protocol and to prevent hacker groups, such as the Lazarus Group, from laundering stolen crypto funds. Dutch authorities arrested one of the protocol’s developers and have stated they will take further action against DAOs that may enable money laundering. Could this be the start of the war on Decentralised Finance (DeFi)?
The implications of being linked to, or seen facilitating on-chain activity, with a wallet in connection with Tornado Cash have also prompted “decentralised” protocols to ban addresses from using their services to remain compliant with regulatory bodies. Due to the transparency and accessibility of crypto, any individual can send anything to any wallet address, with the owner unable to stop their wallet from receiving transactions.
The banning of Tornado Cash sparked an onslaught of withdrawals from the protocol to famous personas’ wallets, such as Jimmy Fallon and Dave Chappelle, leading to them having broken sanctions laws and being punishable for up to 30 years in prison… technically speaking. Aave, the popular lending and borrowing protocol, banned the wallet of the founder of Tron, Justin Sun, as he was sent funds from Tornado Cash by the same unknown entity.
The act of Aave banning wallet addresses has created a stir in the crypto community, with many individuals doubting how decentralised these protocols actually are with their ability to intervene and ban wallet addresses. Some commentators have argued the act of government submission completely contradicts the ethos of crypto and DeFi. Coin Centre, the crypto privacy advocacy group, has stated they will challenge the sanction as it “exceeds statutory authority”.
Ever since crypto began, nation-states using crypto for their own benefit was seen as the final boss before global adoption. Last week Iran funded an import worth $10 million using crypto. Their usage has been instigated due to them being the second most sanctioned country in the world behind Russia – limiting their ability to trade with other nations using the existing banking systems. One of the country’s ministers also stated that “By the end of September, the use of cryptocurrencies and smart contracts will be widely used in foreign trade with target countries.”
The increased usage of crypto from states like Iran could be seen as a double-edged sword. It demonstrates the key tenets of sovereignty and impartiality where every individual should have the right to transfer value. However, depending on your geopolitical preference it could be deemed only useful by those not accepted into the system and arguably the wrong people.
This use case increasing in prevalence could also give further credence to governments to ban and regulate crypto with the argument and trump card of national security. Conversely, Ukraine has used crypto to raise well in excess of $100 million in donations to aid their fight against Russia – which would likely be viewed as a positive by the same people who condemn its usage by Iran. As with any technology, the usage and the users define its morality, despite the technology always remaining impartial.
When analysing price action, these developments have not had a major impact on the price of bitcoin. From a technical perspective, bitcoin is positioned between a rock and a hard place in an ascending channel, with the $24,500 level proving hard to crack. The 100-Day moving average is also hovering at this level. A higher timeframe close above this level could be a strong indicator that the rally could continue with the next target likely being the $28,000 level where 2021 yearly candle opened and where we consolidated over summer 2021. Rejection from here could see us retest lower levels and the 200-week moving average that is situated around $23,000.
However, with fear and greed reaching the highest levels seen in the past 4 months and Dogecoin and Shiba Inu pumping hard, these are telltale signs that an interim market top may be forming. The S&P 500 is also touching some strong resistance around the $4,300 level and with even further institutional involvement and intertwined portfolio management systems, rejection from this level could be the catalyst for a return to lower levels – with crypto potentially taking the hardest hit.
Bitcoin - Ultimate Guide to $100KHi Traders, Investors and Speculators📈📉
Ev here. Been trading crypto since 2017 and later got into stocks. I have 3 board exams on financial markets and studied economics from a top tier university for a year.
If you have been following me on TradingView for a while, you'll know that I am particularly fond of using multiple methods of chart analysis together, on a macro timeframe. In today's analysis, I revisit the once popular idea that Bitcoin will go to $100K. Is it possible? How do you get to that specific number? Let's break it down and take a look at the chart analysis in more detail.
Firstly, we need to analyze the chart from a macro perspective to determine what market phase / cycle we are currently trading in. We've covered that in detail HERE :
After an in depth study of the Wyckoff Method, it has been established that we currently find ourselves in the accumulation phase. It is important to note that there are multiple shakeouts in this phase before a clear bottom is established. If you want to know more about entering a bottom position, see this educational idea HERE on Ethereum :https://www.tradingview.com/chart/ETHUSDT/gcnzIgRL-ETHUSDT-Learn-to-Trade-a-W-Bottom/
After establishing the market phase , as well as what to look for in a potential bottom , we now need to establish bounce zones for the early stages of the new phase - mark up. My two go-to methods of determining possible bounce zones are Fibonacci and support zones / resistance zones from a macro perspective. These are both pulled up on the chart. Remember that there are intermediary supply zones / demand zones that are more evident on lower timeframes such as the daily. But for this analysis, we'll focus on the bigger picture.
Now that we have a strong foundation, we can start to speculate possible targets . Speculating targets is made possible by using the Trend Based Fibonacci Retracement + Trend Based Fibonacci Extension. This is the most reliable method for speculating potential targets. It is historically proven that most notable zones include any .236 , .618 and .786 numbers.
After we have established a strong argument for possible targets, we need to figure out how to get there! Luckily, there is another reliable chart analysis method called the Elliot Wave Theory. More detail on the Elliot Wave Theory and rules HERE:
Elliot Waves in combination with Fibonacci are arguably the most reliable methods to determine a potential long term trade setup. With all of the above said and done, we find that Bitcoin reaches the infamous $100K mark at notable 1.618 Fibonacci Trend Based Extension. Pulled up, is a potential Elliot impulse wave towards the target.
Final Thoughts 💭
Like the terrible saying goes, there are many ways to kill a cat. Using trusted methods such as the above, guarantees the user an average of 60% success rate. This is according to Wall Street figures taken over extended time, concluding their most profitable traders have a 68% win rate. So be careful when someone claims to make ridiculous profits or pips. Be realistic and realize that methods are not 100% guaranteed but instead, they have an average win rate of 60%, calculated with mathematical rules such as probability over longer periods of time.
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GEOThe crash from ATH's looks about finished, HTF ABC bullish correction. I would think we now impulse 5 up. If that turns into an A wave then there is much more pain. If we do 3 up here and only hit $10 then this would be an X wave and the price action did a fib extension 1 to 1 and would expect much more downside.
XMR break or make the zone?!#XMR/USDT
$XMR is inside ascending channel and near to break or make the descending trend line.
🐮 Break out from descending trend line that in 4h time frame price is above it, will increase price to upper trend line and that is the same with the golden zone between 0.5 and 0.618 fib levels of yellow swing down.
🐻 break down from ascending channel and 0.5 fib level of last swing down will drop price to support zone around $130.
FTX FTT - Strong altcoin! Huge base + Elliott Wave
FTT is a very reliable and strong altcoin that you can find on the crypto market, together with BNB.
FTX exchange is growing really fast, and there is a lot of demand for the token. If you want reliable and stable gains, this is a great choice for the long term.
We have a clear and very bullish structure (rectangle consolidation) and the bulls successfully defended the previous swing low.
My Elliott wave analysis suggests that we have completed an ABC correction (ZigZag 5-3-5) and we are prepared for the next impulse wave from here!
If we take a look at the volume indicator, we can see very low bearish pressure, so it's really good to see.
Our profit target could be 0.618 FIB extension from Wave 1 -> Wave 2, but I think we can go higher. We need to wait for the price to develop.
I expect tremendous gains for selected altcoins. You can find them in the related section down below.
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Bullish scenario for Eth/Usd; Rallying into the Merge As long as we stay above $1500; preferrably finding support at $1800; I'm keen on the idea of strength up into the multiple confluences around $2600; and into the 15th September Eth Merge event
~~Multiple Confluences:
~Eth Futures Gap (on CME Weekly chart)
~0.618 retracement level
~1.618 extension of the recent dynamic down leg
~roughly around the 50% level of the 2yr Range (2020-present)
~fundamental bullish driver being the upcoming Eth Merge; which should take place on the 15th-16th September.
Note: If it does pan out like this, and if we rally sharply into the Merge mid-September; i'd be sure to take profits there: 'Buy the rumor, sell the news' type of idea.
BTC weekly fib levels#BTC/USDT
$BTC Fibonacci levels show that the price now faced a crucial resistance zone.
🐮 Break out from 0.5 fib level of the daily swing down (yellow fib), can pump the price toward 0.382 and 0.5 fib levels of the weekly swing down.
🐻 And rejection from the current resistance zone will cause a correction to $21k or maybe lower.
also in the short-term time frame price shaped rising wedge which is a bearish pattern(review my last analysis).
EURJPY SHORT TREND CONTINUATIONWe broke the trendling and bounce back at A. Confirming the change in trend. Best trades taken for swing positions at point A. We have a continuation to 1.618 Fib extension as out last TP and closing all positions. The trend is making Lower Lows and Lower Highs. We also have a Bearish Engulfing on Support and Resistance 137.50