Risk aversion in China-US negotiations cools down!Gold closed with an "inverted hammer" positive line this week. The upper shadow line was mainly due to the continued stimulation of gold's safe-haven properties by the news at the beginning of the week. However, the tariff war with previous lessons helped the gold price to hit a historical high of 3500. The reaction of gold prices to this news this week was not as enthusiastic as before, which also led to the stop of the rise at 3439. The announcement of the interest rate decision in the second half of the week was in line with expectations. The gold price plunged 170 points in two days and stabilized above the 3300 mark as of yesterday's closing. Based on the previous evening star combination and this week's inverted hammer, it is believed that the gold price will continue to fall next week and will close below the real time, that is, below 3306.
From the perspective of daily K, this week is generally a trend of rising and falling, and a slight rebound follows after the decline at the end of the week. Weekly Review We continue with the analysis of the second half of the week. From the perspective of the gold price trend since the high point of 3500, the first wave of decline has been considered to be over. The rebound from 3200 to 3439 did not exceed the previous high, so we will continue to analyze the second wave of decline, and strictly implement this idea in the operation. Now the overall trend of gold prices is also the same. Next week's operation will focus on the key suppression position of 3378 near the end of the week. If it cannot stand firm in the first half of the week, there is still a lot of room for further decline.
From the four-hour level, the triangle convergence pattern we analyzed is still there. Unexpectedly, there was a false break of the lower track in the Asian session on Friday. Next week, we still need to continue to pay attention to the support of this position. In general, next week, we will first pay attention to the operation of the range from 3378 to 3274, and wait for the break before I will re-analyze the structure. Once again, I would like to remind you that the news market is repeated, and the base of gold prices is too large, so the intraday volatility has also increased. It is also common to go up and down more than 100 points in a single day. Everyone needs to pay attention to the risk control of their positions.
In the short term, if we move to the hourly level, we can analyze the last wave of structure. The gold price rebounded after breaking through 3288 in the Asian session on Friday. After this action, the gold price rebounded quickly. Let’s not talk about who has the upper hand. From the last wave of rebound, the continuation is insufficient. If it is a restart of the bulls, the European and American sessions also need to cross the previous downward high point of 3368 to confirm. However, the European session was sideways throughout, and the US session also slightly continued the rebound trend and closed hastily. Therefore, at the opening of next week, it is necessary to continue to watch the gold price to test the support of the low point of the Asian session on Friday. In general, the operation ideas for next week are mainly high-altitude, and low-long also look at the rebound short-term.
