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Fibonacci Projection

Unlock Market Targets with Fibonacci: Precise Entries & Exits Hey there! In this video, I’ll walk you through how I use the 50% and 100% Fibonacci levels to get a clear sense of where the market might move next. It’s a simple, no-fuss approach that helps me trade with more confidence—without cluttering my charts with tons of indicators. The projection marks where a move might wrap up—perfect for deciding when to exit or take profits. Whether you’re into forex, crypto, or stocks, this strategy can keep things simple and effective. If you found this helpful, feel free to like, boost, comment, or follow—I’d love to know your thoughts and hear how this method works for you! Mindbloome Trading Trade What You See
Education
by Mindbloome-Trading
Gold’s Push to 2766—But an $80 Correction May Be Coming!Gold is eyeing key levels at 2719, 2738, and up to 2766, but let’s not ignore the potential for an $80+ correction along the way. I’ll walk you through the key targets and where the market might throw us a curveball. Join me as we break down the technical and figure out if gold is set to rally or hit a correction. If this analysis helped (or at least gave you something to think about), give it a like, drop your comments below, and hit follow for more updates. Your support keeps the content rolling—unlike gold, which might need a timeout soon! Mindbloome Trader Happy Trading
CAPITALCOM:GOLDLong
by Mindbloome-Trading
$XAU | Watchlist | Sell Limits |Technical Confluences: - Stochastics is very close to Overbought conditions in D1 timeframe - Price is close to the 161% Fibo Extension Line - Projection using Elliot Wave count is pointing that the price may push up towards the Fibo Extension Line Fundamental Confluences: - With ongoing geopolitical tensions between Israel & Iran, there is a pressure for XAU to remain supported - The reversal carry trade story may have legs to further push XAU up another leg as a safe haven - With incoming FED cuts, there is potential for a weaker USD coming into September - The above 3 points are the supporting for a higher XAU price. - Assuming we hit the Wave 3 projected price, the US election will pose a big risk to the global outlook and may see USD strengthen back during that period. A stronger USD may induce a weaker XAU. ----- Will be placing Sell Limit orders and update if the projection comes true. Remember, DYOR. -----
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by weekendanalyst
$BTC | Buy Trade 1D | Buy Limit |Technical Confluences: - Price action is condolidating at the mid of downward parallel channel - Targeting the price action to move towards the area of resistances (Interest Zones, Lower-Bound of Parallel Channel, Horizontal Trendline & 50% Fibo Retracement level) - Elliot Wave 4 completed or will it extend and then, aim for the 100% Fibo Extension line @ 93,359 to complete Wave 5 Fundamental Confluences: - It's Bitcoin; it can go to whatever level it wants. - Many disagree and feel it will replace fiat. IMO, not in the near term and it will be many more moons before it happens. In the meantime, it's my speculative asset, Lol. - As the world embraces more of the blockchain adoption, Bitcoin hype will still remain. ________________________________ CRYPTOCAP:BTC orders set at the Buy Limit zones. Patiently waiting. Remember, DYOR. ________________________________ Boosts 🚀, Follows ✌️, Shares 🙌 & Comments ✍️ are much appreciated! If you have any ideas or charts, do share them in the 'Comments' section below and we can discuss our perspectives to improve or strengthen our strategies. If you want something analyzed, do drop me a DM. :D ________________________________ Disclaimer: The above suggestion is an personal opinion in general and does not constitute as investment advice. Any decisions taken based on the above suggestion is purely your own risks. DYOR.
BINANCE:BTCUSDLong
by weekendanalyst
IWM: Something is Rotten in the State of MarketsPrimary Chart: IWM on a weekly timeframe with downtrend line and major support and resistance zones Note1: IWM is an iShares ETF that represents the Russell 2000 small-cap index in the United States. Though not as widely tracked as SPX, NDX, or DJIA, the Russell 2000 ( TVC:RUT ) is one of the major US indices. It is likely the fourth most watched US index. Note2: The phrase "something is rotten in the state of Denmark" is a well-known line from Shakespeare's play Hamlet used to describe a situation where something is wrong or even corrupt within a government, institution, or system. No corruption is intended to be implied discussed. The title's allusion to this phrase is meant to suggest only that something is off / wrong in the markets, i.e., that everything is not well despite the strength of the Nasdaq 100 lately and the support seen in SPX. The Russell 2000 (IWM) is often a leading indicator in US markets. It led to the downside in early November 2021 after a false breakout out of its 2021 topping-pattern's resistance around $234. SPX topped nearly two months later on January 4, 2022. While small-caps are not necessarily always the first to make a move, it is something frequently cited by commentators and analysts. The primary chart shows how IWM has struggled below the upper blue rectangular zone, a resistance / supply zone going back to highs in March and April 2022. This zone also rejected price at the end of the impressive August 2022 rally that had everyone debating whether the bull-market had returned in earnest. Lastly, on February 2, 2023, IWM was unable to even tag the lower edge of this zone, eking out a high at $199.26. The lower edge of this blue resistance zone as drawn here is at HKEX:200 - HKEX:201 approximately. The Primary Chart above also shows an important Fibonacci support level at $170. This the 50% retracement of the entire bull market from the 2020 Covid lows to the highs in November 2021. This has also marked important support since late October 2022 (a week or two after the October 2022 lows). Notice the weekly candle wicks protruding below this line but recovering back above it. The final point about the Primary Chart is the down TL from the all-time high in magenta. This was broken to the upside, which was one of the reasons many market participants and commentators got excited about the bear being complete. That trendline was retested in late March 2023. But despite this positive development, IWM has not acted well. In fact, it has broken decisively below a multi-month upward trendline from October 2022 lows as shown on the Primary Chart as well. This trendline was also important and signifies weakness on the decisive break below it. On the larger scale, price is trapped between the blue rectangular zones of support and resistance. Until these break, not much progress is likely in either direction. Sideways action is likely for the coming weeks. The one thing that would negate the sideways action view is a clean break back below the down trendline from the all-time high. So keep an eye out for that development. Next, Supplementary Chart A.1 and A.2 below shows a hypothetical illustration of how price could move sideways for the coming weeks / months before a flush below major support (if one is bearish about equities generally) or a rally above the key resistance zone (if one is bullish about equities generally). SquishTrade gives an edge to the bears in the intermediate to longer-term time frames—as long as price stays below both (1) the uptrend line from October 2022 lows, and (2) the key Fibonacci levels of the most recent decline (shown on the Primary Chart at $183.36 and $187.11). Supplementary Chart A.1 (measured corrective move upward where the legs of the corrective move might be equal or share a 1.272 Fibonacci relationship) Supplementary Chart A.2 (choppy sideways action that retests the upward TL from the October 2022 lows that had broken down in March 2023 before heading lower again) Supplementary Chart B is a zoomed-out version of the major resistance and support level shown on the Primary Chart. This is intended to show the ranging action for months that has taken place despite periods of seemingly impressive strength and sharp weakness. Supplementary Chart B The next chart, Supplementary Chart C, illustrates what a trendline might look like if someone were considering this chart afresh, i.e., for the first time without having tracked the prior trendlines during the 2021-2022 bear market. The TL has been re-drawn to account for the recent major highs at the end of the January to February 2023 rally. Supplementary Chart C IWM's anchored VWAPs are not encouraging. Here, the only VWAPs considered are the one anchored to the all-time high in November 2021 (blue-purple line) and the 2022 low (orange line). Price made a false breakout above the VWAP from the all-time high and failed back below. That in itself is a negative especially given that this occurred on a larger time frame going back to 2021. Price has also failed below the October 2022 VWAP as well. Supplementary Chart D Finally, and most importantly, consider the ratio spread of IWM/SPY in Supplementary Chart E below . This tracks the performance of the Russell 200 relative to the S&P 500. This is why something might be rotten in the state of Denmark (markets). A healthy market should not have an index looking this bad. Let me know what you think in the comments. Supplementary Chart E The ratio spread shows that IWM's underperformance just broke below a key support level for that ratio. But bigger support lies below. However, the overall picture looks bleak for IWM with a downtrend line that has lasted for a while, and lower highs for the ratio's value on higher time frames. ________________________________________ Author's Comment: Thank you for reviewing this post and considering its charts and analysis. The author welcomes comments, discussion and debate (respectfully presented) in the comment section. Shared charts are especially helpful to support any opposing or alternative view. This article is intended to present an unbiased, technical view of the security or tradable risk asset discussed. Please note further that this technical-analysis viewpoint is short-term in nature. This is not a trade recommendation but a technical-analysis overview and commentary with levels to watch for the near term. This technical-analysis viewpoint could change at a moment's notice should price move beyond a level of invalidation. Further, proper risk-management techniques are vital to trading success. And countertrend or mean-reversion trading, e.g., trading a rally in a bear market, is lower probability and is tricky and challenging even for the most experienced traders. DISCLAIMER: This post contains commentary published solely for educational and informational purposes. This post's content (and any content available through links in this post) and its views do not constitute financial advice or an investment or trading recommendation, and they do not account for readers' personal financial circumstances, or their investing or trading objectives, time frame, and risk tolerance. Readers should perform their own due diligence, and consult a qualified financial adviser or other investment / financial professional before entering any trade, investment or other transaction.
AMEX:IWM
by SquishTrade
18
OKB analysis: expecting wave 5 🚀Hello, in this post I will share a detailed analysis of OKB. 🛠️ OKB is a utility token from OKX exchange. With it, it is possible to have discounts on trading fees and passive income in DeFi/CeFi. OKX is one of the largest CEX (Centralized Exchange). 📆 Previously on August 2, 2022, I had already analyzed this token, but in the BTC quote: As seen, the Fibonacci target of 1,618 has already been reached. Now the next target is on projection 2, copying the same height as the triangle below. 🟢 Going back to the USDT quoted chart, reducing the timeframe to 1 day, we have a symmetrical triangle. Price broke above the triangle, and performed a throwback, allowing for an entry. That said, we have a bullish bias for this asset. 🌲 So far we've analyzed the tree. Let's analyze the forest. Comparing the 1-year performance of the main exchanges plus BTC: Which shows that the token is above average.
Long
by andre_007
1
SPY Continues Trapping Bulls / Bears; Rally Traps Bears NextPrimary Chart: S&P 500 represented by AMEX:SPY (SPDR S&P 500 ETF trust, an ETF traded on ARCA and NYSE) SUMMARY US equity markets may continue to trap bears and bulls alike in the coming weeks and months on the short-term to intermediate-term timeframes. SPY / SPX may rally in the coming days and weeks into April 2023. Such a rally makes sense from a technical viewpoint but would be considered irrational given the broader macro environment. But consider how many irrational and unexpected price swings have occurred since this bear-market began in early 2022. The price range in SPY has been compressing over time since the October 2022 lows. The anchored VWAPs (discussed in detail below) confirm this compression and tightening of the range. Price is finding support at the 3900 SPX / 390 SPY level. If this does not hold as support (or if it breaks and does not quickly reclaim), the entire thesis of a rally is invalidated. Conservative targets begin at $398-$399 ($4000 SPX). The list of targets appear below: 1. 398.48 SPY / 4000 SPX (most conservative) 2. 401.14 SPY (conservative) 3. 404.42 SPY (conservative) 4. 407.70 SPY (moderately aggressive) 5. 409.25 SPY (moderately aggressive) It is easy to come up with bearish stories about how price will run in a straight line to new lows. Perhaps that may happen this spring. But perhaps not. The crash-right-now scenario seems far too easy and predictable without sufficient pain (max pain theory) for bears and bulls alike. Instead, price may continue to chop within its ever-tightening range. A few more traps and tricks may lie ahead before a major trend move can occur. The following SPY charts show a reasonable argument and analysis for higher SPY prices the coming few weeks. Keep in mind, this is a shorter-term view only lasting only 2-10 weeks. Whether all-time highs will be reached before new bear market lows are achieved seems unlikely, but markets can do whatever they want. It's helped me to realize that anything is always possible in markets no matter how irrational. And it doesn't make sense to spend a lot of time thinking about which will happen first: new all-time highs or new bear-market lows. Why? Because it doesn't matter and it probably can't be known with even the best Elliott-wave counts or the most extensive macro deep dives. Turning to what the charts are showing us currently, one can see that US equity markets continue to trap bulls and bears in difficult whipsaws that defeat longer-term positioning in both directions. Bulls were trapped in late January 2023 and early February 2023 when SPY rallied convincingly above 410 (4100 SPX) to reach nearly 420 (4200 SPX). Many said that the lows were final and that the market was traveling back to new all-time highs. The macro and monetary-policy environment has suggested caution as to forming optimistic, inflexible bullish biases about reaching new all-time highs with a new uptrend. In any event, few strategies have worked in this price environment. One famous trader discussed in Jack Schwager's Market Wizards series said recently he was down somewhat this year on the few positions he has taken, and that this market has been extremely difficult. In general, from his public statements, one can glean this particular "market wizard" has been staying largely away from investing and trading (a trading decision in itself which requires great discipline) given that his breakout-trading strategy does not work in this type of market. Given the whipsaw and chop on a daily and weekly basis, shorter-term strategies between major levels may have the most success. As one veteran trader once said, trading from the edge in chop will give you an edge. The edge has been difficult to define, however. For example, in early February 2023, SPY / SPX pushed deviously above December 2022 highs. The December 2022 highs appeared to be the chop-range's edge. But price pushed above that in a tricky way that trapped many bulls. Bears have had their share of pain too, as price has broken below key levels only to reverse higher. For instance, in December 2022, after the FOMC presser that killed the rally, price fell into the 375-385 SPY range only to fail to follow through to the downside as many market players may have expected. Similar shorter-time frame failed breakdowns have also appeared on January 19, February 9-10 and February 22, 2023. The anchored VWAPs confirm what might be inferred from the choppy price action alone. Supplementary Chart A below shows several key VWAPs anchored to major turning points since the all-time high in SPY / SPX on January 4, 2022. Notice how they show price compression as VWAPs from major highs drift downward and VWAPs from major lows drift upward with price caught in the middle except for the trappy breals above and below that failed. Supplementary Chart A.1 In a way, the VWAP from the October 2022 low and the VWAP from the January 2022 high have together formed the boundary for price action since the October 2022 lows. The next chart, Supplementary Chart A.2, shows just these two anchored VWAPs to allow a better visualization of this phenomenon (compression): Supplementary Chart A.2 Next, consider the Fibonacci levels shown on Supplementary Chart C below. This shows where price could rally in the coming days and weeks. The shorter-term Fibonacci retracements were drawn from the intraday low on Friday, March 9, 2023, which may not be the low of this particular swing. If this low changes, SquishTrade may likely provide an update on this. Supplementary Chart B Considering Supplementary Chart B further, the most reasonable targets are also the closest resistance areas under Fibonacci analysis. The most obvious target is the $398.48 Fibonacci level, which is the .382 retracement of the entire bear market decline (retracements drawn from the all-time high in January 2022 to the current bear-market low in October 2022). This level is approximately 4000 on SPX, a key psychological level and an important positioning level. None of the upside shown on any of SquishTrade's charts can occur without a decisive recovery above this area. Assuming the 390 SPY area holds as support next week, the key Fibonacci areas to watch as targets and resistance are the 50% and 61.8% retracements of the recent swing high to low (starting at February 2, 2023). This gives us conservative targets for a rally of $401.14, $404.42, and $407.70. If a lower low is made in the next few days on this decline, then these Fibonacci retracements will be revised somewhat lower. The next target is the VWAP from the all-time high at $409.25 today. This shows a gentle decline over time, so in the coming days it may be marginally lower or higher depending on price direction. Reclaiming this anchored VWAP would require a substantial move in the face of hostile macro and rate environment. So SquishTrade will refrain from extensive discussion of targets above this January 2022 VWAP at 409.25 (4100 SPX) and mention them merely as possibilities to watch. In other words, these targets remain inchoate and tenuous until lower levels reclaim first. In any case, the Fibonacci analysis on Supplementary Chart B above reveals confluence around the August 2022 peaks. This shows $429.61 SPY as a major Fibonacci level, i.e., the .618 retracement of the entire bear market high to low range. This coincides with the August 2022 peaks at $431 as well as the 1.272 external retracement (or extension) at $425.87. SquishTrade's analysis does not assert definitively that this $425-$431 area will be reached as that would be premature. No confidence on a technical basis can exist as to whether can zone will be reached until price can reclaim critical lower levels first. But it seems plausible technically speaking (and setting aside macro biases for purposes of this analysis). That would cause a great deal of market pain and suck in a lot of investors and bulls into the chase of a new bull / primary uptrend. For now, this post's analysis is limited to a call for SPY to move higher into the more conservative targets discussed above ($398, $401, 404, 407, $409). Again, these lower price levels must be reclaimed first before considering any SPY / SPX targets above $410 SPY / 4100 SPX. And this author prefers to take price action a bit more granularly, i.e., level by level, to avoid forming rigid biases that work against one's ability to read price action objectively, and to resist getting too far ahead the present action and the charts as they appear here and now, which provide valuable information daily that is better than any forecaster on Wall Street can provide. Lastly, consider the final two supplementary charts below showing (1) gap fill areas just above $420 (SPX 4200) and (2) the measured-move from October 13, 2022. This could result in a move to $437.02. This would seem outrageous and irrational given the macro environment, right? But how many times this year have equities acted outrageous and irrational? Perhaps even this technical area can be reached before the great slide begins in earnest. Flows from positioning (CTAs) and options can be affected by a number of things that don't involve the terminal rate or inflation prints. In any event, look at how price is finding support at the $389-$391 area (shown by a blue rectangle on the Primary Chart and the supplementary charts. As long as this holds, price can move higher into April 2023. Supplementary Chart C Supplementary Chart D ________________________________________ Author's Comment: Thank you for reviewing this post and considering its charts and analysis. The author welcomes comments, discussion and debate (respectfully presented) in the comment section. Shared charts are especially helpful to support any opposing or alternative view. This article is intended to present an unbiased, technical view of the security or tradable risk asset discussed. Please note further that this technical-analysis viewpoint is short-term in nature. This is not a trade recommendation but a technical-analysis overview and commentary with levels to watch for the near term. This technical-analysis viewpoint could change at a moment's notice should price move beyond a level of invalidation. Further, proper risk-management techniques are vital to trading success. And countertrend or mean-reversion trading, e.g., trading a rally in a bear market, is lower probability and is tricky and challenging even for the most experienced traders. DISCLAIMER: This post contains commentary published solely for educational and informational purposes. This post's content (and any content available through links in this post) and its views do not constitute financial advice or an investment or trading recommendation, and they do not account for readers' personal financial circumstances, or their investing or trading objectives, time frame, and risk tolerance. Readers should perform their own due diligence, and consult a qualified financial adviser or other investment / financial professional before entering any trade, investment or other transaction.
AMEX:SPYLong
by SquishTrade
35
NQ - update: Within "normal" correction (so far)A "correction" can be very much expected after every few days of running up. The bull is very much intact if NQ can stay above 12,800, with Potential resistence-turned-support @ 12,850. (worst case support @ 12,500, the most recent pivot low). The 200 day Moving Average is slightly curving up now too. As long as one isn't a short term / day trader, just stay the course unless we see a break down of near term supports. So Let's see. Picking the right stocks is important too, unless the market gets euphoric and every Tom, Dick and Harry stocks starts to run. Disclaimer: Just my 2 cents and not a trade advice. Kindly do your own due diligence and trade according to your own risk tolerance and don't forget that money management is important! Take care and Good Luck!
TVC:NDQLong
by Juliac
Will AMZN's Primary Downtrend Break Its Secular Uptrend?Primary Chart: Primary Down Trendline from 2021, Secular Up Trendline from 1997, Long-Term Up TL from 2008 GFC Low, and Fibonacci Retracements from Covid 2020 Low Summary: 1. This post provides a broader view of the technical environment within which AMZN's day-to-day price action takes place. 2. AMZN remains within a primary downtrend (see the parallel channel from the all-time highs). But it remains within a secular uptrend, and has tagged and remains near the secular up trendline from 1997. Such long-term trendlines could be drawn perhaps a bit higher or lower. SquishTrade drew it conservatively as possible from the bearish perspective. If the trendline were moved slightly higher, given its length, such a slight move results in a fairly large change in the current level. This is like adjusting an arrow slightly after it leaves a bow, and over time, a slight adjustment makes a huge difference in the destination. 3. Being within a primary downtrend but nearing a secular uptrend makes trades more tricky perhaps as the uptrend line is neared. But until the primary downtrend structure changes, SquishTrade favors a break of the 1997 up trendline after some messy whipsaws perhaps. The 14-year 2008 upward trendline broke earlier this year, although it was retested several times with some whipsaws as well. 4. A break of the secular up trendline puts Covid lows, coinciding with a Fibonacci levels, in play as a target. These lows and the Fibonacci levels range from $78 to $82. If the downward trendline breaks, SquishTrade forecasts that price will likely reach this range within 2 to 4 months (March 2023 at the latest). 5. A more aggressive target range lies at $64 to $67. 6. In the very short-term, it appears that a bounce is imminent, and this bounce may be sold before it reaches the most recent swing high. But this will be covered in a separate post to be published soon. The Primary Chart shows AMZN's downtrend at the primary degree of trend. This is represented by a parallel channel on a logarithmic chart. A parallel channel on this weekly chart comprises both a down trendline across the material highs and a return line across the material lows. This downtrend broke below the upward TL from the 2008 GFC low. That TL was retested several times after it was broken. Major long-term support and resistance levels are not broken easily, and often require more than one attempt. As the price action around this 2008 trendline illustrates, price may often retest or whipsaw around longer-term trendlines or longer-term levels. In any event, this chart helps to keep AMZN trading in context. In the event a bearish flush takes place, check out the long-term secular uptrend line from 1997. Below is a broader view (zoomed out) of both the 2008 and the 1997 trendlines, combined with the current one-year down trendline from all-time highs: Supplementary Chart A: Monthly Chart of AMZN's Long-Term Trendlines Such long-term trendlines as the 1997 up trendline could be drawn perhaps a bit higher or lower. SquishTrade drew it conservatively as possible from a bearish perspective. If the trendline were moved slightly higher, given its length, such a slight move results in a fairly large change in the current level. This is like adjusting an arrow slightly after it leaves a bow, and over time, a slight adjustment makes a huge difference in the destination. In short, AMZN is trading within a primary downtrend but also nearing a secular uptrend, and this makes trading, investing and forecasting more tricky as the secular uptrend line is neared. But until the primary downtrend structure changes, SquishTrade favors a break of the 1997 secular upward trendline after some messy whipsaws perhaps. The 14-year 2008 upward trendline broke earlier this year, although it was retested several times with some whipsaws as well. A break of the secular up trendline puts Covid lows, coinciding with a Fibonacci levels, in play as a target. These lows and the Fibonacci levels range from $78 to $82. If the downward trendline breaks, SquishTrade forecasts that price will likely reach this range within 2 to 4 months (March 2023 at the latest). A more aggressive target range lies at $64 to $67. RSI on a daily chart shows that lower prices should be expected. Consider that momentum has remained in a downtrend as well for a while: Supplementary Chart B: AMZN's RSI (Daily) in a Downtrend Price could pause at the secular uptrend line, break below and whipsaw back above, or do a series of whipsaws above and below before choosing a direction. A good example of how price can whipsaw above and below a long-term trendline is seen on Apple's chart here . Over the past several weeks, AAPL has whipsawed above and below the line about seven times. That doesn't have to happen every time, but it should not be expected that price will slice through such key trendlines (assuming correctly drawn) like a hot knife through butter with no hesitation and no looking back. In any case, the main argument here is that the primary downtrend must continue to be respected, especially when AMZN remains below the .618 and .50 Fibonacci retracements of its rally from December 2018 lows to November 2021 highs. The .618 retracement lies at $97.98, and the .50 retracement lies at $111.03. So the intermediate term forecast (2-4 months) is for price to continue trending lower to about the March 2020 pandemic lows and perhaps to the Fibonacci 1.00 projection area at $78, acknowledging that this move will not be in a straight line and that downtrends include highs—albeit lower ones at the degree of trend where the downtrend exists. But the secular uptrend from 1997 should be carefully watched. Shorts at this level are higher risk than shorts taken above the level, depending on the trading time frame. This post is not exactly a trade idea, although it does forecast lower prices with some targets over the coming weeks and months. Rather, it attempts to provide a broader view of the technical environment within which AMZN's daily price action occurs. It's not quite as straightforward as the primary downtrend (yellow parallel channel) might suggest. In any event, seeing the longer-term view may help those who may approach AMZN with both short-term and long-term trading and investing plans. Within the next few days, another short-term post will accompany this one with a short-term outlook (several days to a couple weeks). ________________________________________ Author's Comment: Thank you for reviewing this post and considering its charts and analysis. The author welcomes comments, discussion and debate (respectfully presented) in the comment section. Shared charts are especially helpful to support any opposing or alternative view. This article is intended to present an unbiased, technical view of the security or tradable risk asset discussed. Please note further that this technical-analysis viewpoint is short-term in nature. This is not a trade recommendation but a technical-analysis overview and commentary with levels to watch for the near term. This technical-analysis viewpoint could change at a moment's notice should price move beyond a level of invalidation. Further, proper risk-management techniques are vital to trading success. And countertrend or mean-reversion trading, e.g., trading a rally in a bear market, is lower probability and is tricky and challenging even for the most experienced traders. DISCLAIMER: This post contains commentary published solely for educational and informational purposes. This post's content (and any content available through links in this post) and its views do not constitute financial advice or an investment or trading recommendation, and they do not account for readers' personal financial circumstances, or their investing or trading objectives, time frame, and risk tolerance. Readers should perform their own due diligence, and consult a qualified financial adviser or other investment / financial professional before entering any trade, investment or other transaction.
NASDAQ:AMZN
by SquishTrade
13
AAPL Update: Log Chart Reveals Key Levels and CluesPrimary Chart: Parallel Channel Defining Downtrend from All-Time High, Uptrend Line from Covid Lows Through June 2022 Low, Fibonacci Levels AAPL's logarithmic chart reveals some interesting technical facts that are not as apparent on a linear / arithmetic chart. 1. AAPL remains in a trading range. This range developed and persisted over the past month. The top of the range is about $157 and the bottom of the range is about $134 (lows on October 13, 2022). The breakout of this range may determine the next multi-week trend leg in AAPL. Supplementary Chart: 65m Chart Showing Chop Range for AAPL over Past Month 2. Uptrend Line from March 2020 through June 2022. First, consider the uptrend line (light blue) from the Covid 2020 lows that connects through the June 2022 low. On October 12, 2022, SquishTrade discussed this trendline, showing it on both linear and logarithmic charts. This TL formed the lower boundary of a very large multi-month triangle. SquishTrade's previous AAPL post forecasted whipsaws around this trendline stating on October 12, 2022 as follows: "But when multi-month triangles like this break, and when multi-year trendlines like this break, it should be expected this could be a process rather than a quick event, assuming the trendline is valid. In part, this is because multi-year trendlines and multi-month triangles do not break and dissipate easily. The lower trendline of the triangle pattern is a multi-year trendline from the Covid lows to the present. Price does not always just break right through such an important level. On occasion, it can slice right through a level deemed consequential and long-term. But often when encountering a very important longer-term level, price can tag it, then break it repeatedly in both directions, whipsawing above and below the line a few times before following the ultimate direction it will take. Or it can break the line and then retest it from underneath a couple times as well." On the Primary Chart for October 12, 2022, SquishTrade stated: "watch for a retest or whipsaw moves around this line." The expected whipsaw has occurred to an even greater degree than was expected. Notice on today's Primary Chart the black line showing seven breakouts above and below the line. Price has been whipsawing back and forth around this TL for more than four weeks (since September 29, 2022). On the log chart, price seems to be making progress, however, back to the downside. But with the long lower wick on the candle for November 4, 2022, one might expect yet another retest or whipsaw before moving lower. If AAPL were to retest this TL, the retest would be at approximately 152.70 if it were to occur next week—the line slopes, so the retest resistance level increases with each day that passes. 3. Major Support and Target Areas in the $128-$131 range . The immediate support zone arises at the base of the parallel channel, currently at $130-$131. The VWAP anchored to the 2020 low lies around $128.03 over the next few days. SquishTrade forecasts that AAPL will reach $128-$131 within the coming weeks or couple months though this will not likely happen in a straight line given the choppy price action in both AAPL and equity indices like SPX and NDX. This $128-131 level shows confluence with the YTD price low at $129.04 as well as a key Fibonacci level at $133. 4. Major Support and Target Areas in the $114 to $122 range. If this $128-131 target is reached and violated to the downside, then further downside targets will be considered as viable and effective. The next lower targets are (i) a Fiboancci projection at $122.25, (ii) a long-term Fibonacci retracement at $118.02 (.50 Fib retracement of the 2020-2022 rally on a linear chart), and (iii) another key Fibonacci retracement at $114.07 (.382 Fibonacci retracement of 2020-2022 rally on a logarithmic chart). This area should be considered as a significant support / target zone from $114 to $122.
NASDAQ:AAPLShort
by SquishTrade
48
Say It Ain't So, Tesla Is a Heartbreaker!Primary Chart: 1W Chart Showing Head and Shoulders Pattern with Its Proportional Objective along with Fibonacci Levels Summary: TSLA held up for much of the year better than most tech / growth stocks, but it has recently shown a great deal of weakness, breaking to new YTD lows. Initial targets are $175-$185, from which zone a corrective bounce may be likely, though not certain depending on how much acceleration this stock has to the downside. Only when this zone is broken decisively should lower targets be considered viable. Next level targets are $151-$157. Only if this zone is broken decisively should lower targets be considered viable. Next level targets are $130-$138. Only if this zone is broken decisively should lower targets be considered viable. The last targets for this analysis are $98-$107. TSLA broke the neckline of a multi-year H&S pattern, and by measuring proportions of the pattern and projecting them, an objective for the breakout is around $100, a price level that shows confluence with several Fibonacci levels that are long-term. This analysis and all the targets identified assume the breakout succeeds. If the breakout fails, and the neckline is reclaimed, this would be short and intermediate term bullish and negate the bearish case until / unless the neckline is broken again. Fibonacci targets align with the H&S proportional objective. Many TSLA fans are perhaps more disappointed in TSLA's stock price this year than with their electric vehicles this year. TSLA has been selling off sharply since mid-September 2022 after declining less (relatively) than most tech / growth stocks. Initial support may be the $175-$185 range from which a bounce might be anticipated. Supplementary Chart A: Initial Support But a head and shoulders pattern has been confirmed on a larger time frame. "Confirmed" means a break of the neckline has occurred, shown as the dotted blue line on the H&S pattern shown on the Primary Chart. A H&S is a common and widely recognized technical pattern. So because everyone is looking at the pattern and readily identifying it, the pattern does not always work out as expected. In this case, the proportional objective for a downside breakout from the pattern is around $100. Before the most recent 3-for-1 split, that would have been about $300. The head-and-shoulders price objective derives from a proportion of the pattern projected from the breakout point. The proportion used is the maximum height of the pattern, measured from the peak of the head to the neckline just below. Then this height is projected from the neckline breakout. Finally, a number of key Fibonacci levels—on both linear and log charts—align with the H&S pattern's objective, in the $98 to $100 range. This could take some time to achieve, so multi-week rallies should not invalidate this analysis unless they reclaim the neckline, in which case the entire H&S argument should be negated (which is bullish). Note that the linear Fibonacci levels are shown below: Supplementary Chart B: Linear Chart Fibonacci Levels For a easier visual comparison, here are the logarithmic Fibonacci Levels to be viewed adjacent to the linear Fibonacci levels: Supplementary Chart C: Linear Chart Fibonacci Levels Lastly, just because this chart is super bearish does not mean that jumping in to short is a good idea especially after the stock is well extended to the downside. Do what works best with your trading system and specific risk-management rules. SquishTrade prefers to short after failure at well-defined resistance levels towards the end of bear bounces. ________________________________________ Author's Comment: Thank you for reviewing this post and considering its charts and analysis. The author welcomes comments, discussion and debate (respectfully presented) in the comment section. Shared charts are especially helpful to support any opposing or alternative view. This article is intended to present an unbiased, technical view of the security or tradable risk asset discussed. Please note further that this technical-analysis viewpoint is short-term in nature. This is not a trade recommendation but a technical-analysis overview and commentary with levels to watch for the near term. This technical-analysis viewpoint could change at a moment's notice should price move beyond a level of invalidation. Further, proper risk-management techniques are vital to trading success. And countertrend or mean-reversion trading, e.g., trading a rally in a bear market, is lower probability and is tricky and challenging even for the most experienced traders. DISCLAIMER: This post contains commentary published solely for educational and informational purposes. This post's content (and any content available through links in this post) and its views do not constitute financial advice or an investment or trading recommendation, and they do not account for readers' personal financial circumstances, or their investing or trading objectives, time frame, and risk tolerance. Readers should perform their own due diligence, and consult a qualified financial adviser or other investment / financial professional before entering any trade, investment or other transaction.
NASDAQ:TSLAShort
by SquishTrade
56
SPX's Bear Rally May Tag Resistance Zone at 4100-4143Primary Chart: Down Trendline and Anchored VWAP from All-Time Highs, Fibonacci Retracements and Extensions Summary of Key Points: 1. SPX remains in a countertrend rally (an uptrend on shorter time frames) from the October 13, 2022 lows. See the parallel channel on the Primary Chart. The post-FOMC selloff found support right at the base of this channel. 2. A pullback and consolidation should be expected, though it's not necessarily a given. Though prices moved in almost a straight line late last week, that is not the norm and even with that nearly straight line, prices never move in a straight line on higher time frames. If a pullback / consolidation occurs, it would be in the blue box area shown on the Primary Chart. 3. SquishTrade will only consider targets above 4000 if SPX can successfully reclaim 4000 with a daily close above, i.e., 4000 works as as a condition precedent to 4100-4143. 4. The truth is that no one can see the future and predict with consistency and accuracy exactly what happens next. Technical analysis is a tool used to evaluate probabilities, not certainties. 5. Bear rallies, in the mean time, should be respected. After all, how many times have bears (including SquishTrade) had their heads handed to them on a shiny platter this year? They go higher than anyone expects. And they tend to turn back lower to resume the bear market just when everyone starts thinking the lows are in and a new uptrend at the primary degree has begun. SPX's bear rally may continue higher, with pullbacks / consolidations of course, to reach 4100-4143. Why is it still being called a bear rally? Some may wonder whether the lows are in after last week's powerful rally on incredibly strong breadth on November 10, 2022, with follow through on Friday, November 11, 2022. Social media is filled with calls for markets to move back to all-time highs given markets uncanny ability to "sniff out" the final stages of inflation and a return to normalcy with a Fed pivot not long afterwards. Sound too good to be true? Maybe it is. The truth is that no one can see the future and predict with consistency and accuracy exactly what happens next. Technical analysis is a tool used to evaluate probabilities, not certainties. The probabilities suggest the market heads lower at some point once the extreme emotions surrounding the "relief rally" (likely fueled by a nice mix of FOMO, algos and short-covering) have faded and price exhausts to the upside. Bear rallies, in the mean time, should be respected. After all, how many times have bears (including SquishTrade) had their heads handed to them on a shiny platter this year? They go higher than anyone expects. And they tend to turn back lower to resume the bear market just when everyone starts thinking the lows are in and a new uptrend at the primary degree has begun. SquishTrade's analysis suggests the bear rally should continue at least another week, perhaps two. Sure, a pullback is likely after the run up last week to consolidate those excessive gains, but the countertrend rally is likely to continue. Please interpret this analysis correctly—SquishTrade is labeling this a countertrend rally until the larger trend structure is definitively broken. SquishTrade is not long-term bullish or calling for a new uptrend at the primary degree. Comments asking why the view has flipped are misplaced: the long-term and even intermediate-term view has not flipped as every downtrend by definition includes both highs and lows in an ebb and flow progressing downward over time. At this stage, the downtrend at the primary degree remains intact. Note the downward trendline in dark blue from the all-time highs. Note the VWAP anchored to the all-time highs in January 2022. These represent actual price data, not opinions. The structure remains down at the primary degree no matter what macro chatter is out there. Tom Lee, a sort of permabull who correctly called the 2-year rally to SPX 4800 off the Covid lows is still calling for SPX 5100 by year end, and thinks that this rally leg can reach 4400. Other macro and technical analysts have said the lows are in and SPX is rallying having sensed the final stages of inflation. Of course, for every bull, there is an equally persuasive bear. SquishTrade believes all that information is contained in the technicals, so why argue the data when it may not matter in the end? Markets will do whatever they want. If markets break the downtrend, then the bulls are right. If they continue the downtrend, the bears are right. Squish remains a bear until the technicals on the larger timeframes can change. Consider two supplementary charts. First is the key anchored VWAPs from major pivots in this bear market. Note the VWAPs from the mid-August 2022 high, the mid-June 2022 low, the mid-October 2022 low. Those VWAPs are converging and beginning to rise, suggesting a strong support zone from 3800-$3879. If this support breaks along with the parallel channel support (the up TL from October 13, 2022), then all bets are off. If this support holds, then watch for a move to the targets identified above. Supplementary Chart A: Anchored VWAPs Supplementary Chart B: Fibonacci Time and Price Analysis Note the confluence of key levels in the Fibonacci price analysis around 4100 and just above that level. These also coincide with the all-time high anchored VWAP currently at 4114.25 and the down trendline from the all-time highs as well, at least where that trendline appears in the next couple weeks. As to the Fibonacci time analysis, consider that since the .50 Fibonacci time level didn't produce a meaningful turn lower, perhaps the .618 Fib level will. Full disclosure: the time analysis is the most speculative and unreliable portion of this post, so if it works out well, that would come as a surprise to ST. ________________________________________ Author's Comment: Thank you for reviewing this post and considering its charts and analysis. The author welcomes comments, discussion and debate (respectfully presented) in the comment section. Shared charts are especially helpful to support any opposing or alternative view. This article is intended to present an unbiased, technical view of the security or tradable risk asset discussed. Please note further that this technical-analysis viewpoint is short-term in nature. This is not a trade recommendation but a technical-analysis overview and commentary with levels to watch for the near term. This technical-analysis viewpoint could change at a moment's notice should price move beyond a level of invalidation. Further, proper risk-management techniques are vital to trading success. And countertrend or mean-reversion trading, e.g., trading a rally in a bear market, is lower probability and is tricky and challenging even for the most experienced traders. DISCLAIMER: This post contains commentary published solely for educational and informational purposes. This post's content (and any content available through links in this post) and its views do not constitute financial advice or an investment or trading recommendation, and they do not account for readers' personal financial circumstances, or their investing or trading objectives, time frame, and risk tolerance. Readers should perform their own due diligence, and consult a qualified financial adviser or other investment / financial professional before entering any trade, investment or other transaction.
SP:SPX
by SquishTrade
14
ETH Headed to New Lows Unfortunately, $569 PT Primary Chart: 2D Chart of ETH Showing Fibonacci Targets ETH and most cryptos are moving fast so this post will be brief. But ETH is headed to new lows. It has sliced through every single major retracement of the rally off the June 18, 2022 low. Squish has remained bearish on BTC and other cryptos despite very brief counter-trend forecasts on occasion to take into account the strength from bear rallies. ETH is plummeting along with the rest of the crypto market due to a well-publicized liquidity crisis that has seen SBF's net worth fall over 95%. Further, crypto market cap just broke below a long-term logarithmic TL. That strengthens the bearish outlook for the entire crypto space given the nature of the break. Supplementary Chart: Total Crypto Market Cap with Long-Term TL Squish's first price target is the YTD low around $880. The second price target is $569 , which is still conservative. Yes, that sounds extreme, but for those who lost 80% from buying at the peak, consider that buying at $1000 can quickly lead to a -50% to -60% loss. Caution is warranted for anything other than well-managed, disciplined trades for counter-trend bounces, which are actually low probability as @Scheplick discussed today in a livestream (highly recommend his livestream events in the future). The most aggressive downside target target is $367, which should not be considered unless and until price falls below $569 decisively. This is the measured-move area as well as a Fibonacci 1.00 projection of the first major segment of the decline projected from the peak of the summer's rally. ________________________________________ Author's Comment: Thank you for reviewing this post and considering its charts and analysis. The author welcomes comments, discussion and debate (respectfully presented) in the comment section. Shared charts are especially helpful to support any opposing or alternative view. This article is intended to present an unbiased, technical view of the security or tradable risk asset discussed. Please note further that this technical-analysis viewpoint is short-term in nature. This is not a trade recommendation but a technical-analysis overview and commentary with levels to watch for the near term. This technical-analysis viewpoint could change at a moment's notice should price move beyond a level of invalidation. Further, proper risk-management techniques are vital to trading success. And countertrend or mean-reversion trading, e.g., trading a rally in a bear market, is lower probability and is tricky and challenging even for the most experienced traders. DISCLAIMER: This post contains commentary published solely for educational and informational purposes. This post's content (and any content available through links in this post) and its views do not constitute financial advice or an investment or trading recommendation, and they do not account for readers' personal financial circumstances, or their investing or trading objectives, time frame, and risk tolerance. Readers should perform their own due diligence, and consult a qualified financial adviser or other investment / financial professional before entering any trade, investment or other transaction.
Short
by SquishTrade
11
BTC's Downtrend Cannot Reverse While Sellers Remain in ControlPrimary Chart: Linear Regression Channel, Fibonacci-Derived Price Target, and Two Long-Term Anchored VWAPs Many crypto enthusiasts have called for a bottom at the various lows in the BTC's downtrend over the past year. At each of the major lows, eager dip buyers swooped in and tried to pick a market bottom. The major swing lows in this bear market in BTC have occurred in December 2021, January 2022, February 2022, May 2022, and June 2022. Each low likely was considered as the bottom (a final low) by investors who pounced in to buy or averaged down on already losing positions. Some savvy traders may have identified extreme oversold conditions in crypto markets at each of these lows and traded a 5-20 day rally to make a tidy profit, and such short-term traders are beneficiaries of the sharp bear rallies that have occurred. More patient short sellers have also benefitted from the bounces if they waited until overbought conditions materialized to position bearishly. The linear regression channel shown on the Primary Chart shows how each interim bear-market low has been followed by a rally back to the top of the regression channel. Once there, investors who had hoped the trend had reversed of the most recent lows were once again disappointed. How many more lows will disappoint the long-term bulls? No one knows. But the odds are stacked heavily against dip buyers for anything more than short-term rallies from extremely oversold lows at downtrend support. Both long-term VWAPs shown on the Primary Chart reveal that the average buyer is now underwater. This means sellers remain in control. As long as sellers remain in control, and as long as downtrends remain intact, it's a low-probability bet to hope for major trend reversal—traders, however, who can remain disciplined and follow technical evidence without letting their biases interfere too much, may make handsome profits as price reaches new lows only to sharply rally back to downtrend resistance. The longer-term VWAPs should be evaluated closely on the Primary Chart. They are both in dark blue. Note that this downtrend has caused price to break below both longer-term anchored VWAPs—one of which is anchored to the pandemic lows in March 2020, and the other of which is anchored to August 2017 lows. Price has paused at each of the long-term Fibonacci retracements measured from the pandemic lows on March 13, 2022, to all-time highs at $69,000. Over the summer, when BTC has rallied it has shown support at the long-term .786 retracement level at $17,792.10. But at the other major retracements, price paused for some time and tested and retested before a break of the level occurred. Price has already tested this $17,792.10 level before bouncing back above it. The next time this area is tested, it should prove weaker. Supplementary Chart A: Long-Term Fibo Retracement Levels It is possible that price is forming a giant corrective A-B-C zigzag (or WXY pattern involving multiple zigzags) from the all-time high. Elliott Wave can be tricky, and multiple wave counts can remain valid simultaneously. Additionally, Elliott Wave counts can continually evolve as price action disproves some wave counts while opening up the validity of other alternatives at the same time. At this time, however, the entire downtrend can plausibly be viewed as a 3-wave move at the largest degree of trend, thus an ABC or WXY corrective pattern. Supplementary Chart B: ABC or WXY Elliott-Wave Corrective Pattern from All-Time Highs with Price Target where Two Declining Waves Have Equality or Near Equality If this is true, price could likely find a low near the 1.00 to 1.272 projections of wave A. More specifically, this means that larger-degree wave C equals the larger-wave A x 1.00 (the same numerical distance between waves A and C), or it means that the larger-degree wave C = larger-degree wave A x 1.272 ($2,292.48), another common relationship in zigzags that is considered nearly equal as well but with a Fibonacci proportion adding a twist—this is a long way down from current levels, but remains a possible EW interpretation. In the meantime, it makes sense for experienced traders to continue to view the short side (at stronger resistance levels) as the higher probability trade. ________________________________________ Author's Comment: Thank you for reviewing this post and considering its charts and analysis. The author welcomes comments, discussion and debate (respectfully presented) in the comment section. Shared charts are especially helpful to support any opposing or alternative view. This article is intended to present an unbiased, technical view of the security or tradable risk asset discussed. Please note further that this technical-analysis viewpoint is short-term in nature. This is not a trade recommendation but a technical-analysis overview and commentary with levels to watch for the near term. This technical-analysis viewpoint could change at a moment's notice should price move beyond a level of invalidation. Further, proper risk-management techniques are vital to trading success. And countertrend or mean-reversion trading, e.g., trading a rally in a bear market, is lower probability and is tricky and challenging even for the most experienced traders. DISCLAIMER: This post contains commentary published solely for educational and informational purposes. This post's content (and any content available through links in this post) and its views do not constitute financial advice or an investment or trading recommendation, and they do not account for readers' personal financial circumstances, or their investing or trading objectives, time frame, and risk tolerance. Readers should perform their own due diligence, and consult a qualified financial adviser or other investment / financial professional before entering any trade, investment or other transaction.
Editors' picks
Short
by SquishTrade
165
Five Long-Term VWAPs for BTCPrimary Chart: Five Long-Term VWAPs for BTCUSD with Fibonacci Price Target SUMMARY: BTC continues to consolidate and chop in a tight range around $19,246 since mid-September 2022. This range is from $18,232 to $20,225 approximately. Each breakout move to the upside or downside has failed, confounding directional bears and bulls alike. A longer-term trading range has also been in effect since June 2022. This longer-term range can be identified as between December 2018 and March 2020 VWAPs—$17,929 to $25,486. Or a simple horizontal channel can be drawn at the highs and lows from June 2020 to October 2022, which gives virtually the same range. This 5-month range aligns to some extent with the recent month's price action, which has been in an even tighter range around the $19,246 level. Price could easily test the longer-term VWAP from December 2018 in the coming weeks. This VWAP lies at $17,929. Price could easily test the longer-term VWAP from June 2017 in the coming months. This VWAP coincides with the Fibonacci projection at $12,184 discussed as a viable target since summer 2022. Over the past four to five weeks (over a month), BTC has consolidated around the $19,246 level, which is a Fibonacci level of interest discussed in SquishTrade's prior BTC posts. For example, the following post (and its excerpt quoted below) analyze the specific trading range and how the breakout moves to the upside and downside have failed: "BTC has chopped above and below this $19,246 level quite a few times, forming a tight consolidation range between and $18,232 and $20,225 approximately. Each breakout move has resulted in a bear or bull trap that fails to follow through with a sharp reversal back to the opposite side of this level." Here is the chart posted previously showing the failed breakouts and breakdowns: So the longer-term VWAPs can help place price action in perspective. Like other indicators, they cannot be considered a crystal ball or guarantee. They just help show the broader price environment over a longer term, which can provide a little clarity. 1. The primary trend remains downward. The VWAP anchored to the all-time high remains sloped downward and well above the current price. The average buyer since the all-time high remains well under water. See the Orange VWAP on the Primary Chart. 2. Price remains under the March 2020 anchored VWAP (shown in pink) which is anchored to the pandemic-crash lows. This positioning is bearish. But this is somewhat offset by price trading above the December 2018 anchored VWAP (shown in green). Price is stuck between these two in a sideways range since June 2022. A breakout move to the downside remains a high risk. This sideways action in between these longer-term VWAPS is analogous to the price action in the past month (mid-September to mid-October 2022) showing chop in a range from $18,232 to $20,225. 3. Price remains above the longest anchored VWAPs from the 2017 low and the 2011 all-time low (using all available BITSTAMP data. Price could easily test either of these VWAPs in the coming months given the strength and severity of the downtrend from all-time highs. From a longer-term perspective, these VWAPs can be helpful to watch. 4. The measured move using Fibonacci projections results in a target of $12,184.72, which has been discussed in previous BTC posts. Supplementary Chart: Measured Move using Fibonacci Projections for Targets SquishTrade still thinks the $12,184.72 target is viable especially given that price has not reversed the primary downtrend since November 2021. BTC has shown some relative strength compared to other risk assets (e.g., equity indices) by trading in a chop range sideways while the other assets have plummeted in the past month. But until BTC can change the structure materially to at least an uptrend at the primary degree of trend, it remains prudent to assume the current downtrend should be favored to resume at the primary degree of trend. Note that this Fibonacci projection aligns loosely with the VWAP anchored to the June 2017 low with a value of $13,604.01.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by SquishTrade
9
NQ - correction or turning bearish?NQ currently has an immediate resistance turned support at 12900. Near term support zone is between 12750 - 12900. 12750 is where I marked D which is a confluence of: 1. the 100% fib projection of the previous correction from A to B (projected onto C) 2. the 50% fib retracement level of the BC mini swing up As long as NQ does not go below 12750 (+/- 50), it is still within "normal" correction for now. No need to "panic" yet! p/s all bullish bets off if NQ had a close below 12700 Disclaimer: Just my 2 cents and not a trade advice. Kindly do your own due diligence and trade according to your own risk tolerance and don't forget that money management is important! Take care and Good Luck!
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by Juliac
BTCUSD's Fibonacci Tea Leaves Provide Some Helpful HintsBTCUSD's Fibonacci Tea Leaves May Provide Some Helpful Levels BTC's Downtrend Since November 10, 2021 BINANCE:BTCUSDT (BTC) has been in a downtrend since its all-time high of $69,000. But it has trended higher in a fairly choppy pattern since its major low on June 18, 2022. Many debates have arisen over whether BTC and other cryptocurrencies have found a lasting bottom that will lead to another bull market. The same questions and arguments arise for equity indices, which have experienced a bear market along with cryptocurrencies. The Debate Whether BTC Has Formed a Lasting Low Many different methods—fundamental and technical—have been explored to solve the question of where BTC's price goes next and whether a rally back to all-time highs has begun or whether another series of price declines lies ahead. One fundamental method some analysts use is called on-chain analysis, but that has likely been the basis for opposing conclusions depending on the biases of the analyst. Glassnode's on-chain analysis has suggested recently that an inflection point may require the capitulation of long-term holders (HODLers). In Forbes this week, Glassnode is quoted as saying: "Bottom formation is often accompanied by shouldering an increasingly large proportion of the unrealized loss." It explained further that "for a bear market to reach an ultimate floor, the share of coins held at a loss should transfer primarily to those who are the least sensitive to price, and with the highest conviction." In any event, this article will not attempt to comment on the validity of any particular fundamental view —the fundamental view provided only for context and newsworthy information. Important Levels from Fibonacci Analysis Fibonacci ratios can be used in a variety of ways in technical analysis. Fibonacci analysis does not have any particular edge over all other forms of analysis, but instead, it is one of many tools that may offer helpful information in analyzing the price activity of a liquid security. No form of technical analysis, including Fibonacci, is infalliable, and none serves as a crystal ball that predicts every price move or wiggle. Simply put, technical analysis does not offer a photographic view of the future of price. If it did, markets could not function effectively or efficiently (unless the photographic view of the future were limited to a select few by cost or other means). But using Fibonacci ratios to analyze price may help identify both time and price areas that can be important to watch. In particular, it helps to see how price interacts with such levels. BTC's Longer-Term Fibonacci Retracement Levels Fibonacci retracements apply the Fibonacci ratios to an identifiable price move between a high and a low or between a low and a high. These ratios are applied to the distance between a selected high and low so that as price retraces a previous move, the ratios can be viewed as either support or resistance. For BTC's major retracement levels, see the horizontal levels on the primary chart above and the horizontal levels on the Supplementary Chart 1 below. The primary chart above shows the retracement levels from the all-time low ($2.22) to the all-time high ($69,000). Retracement levels tend to have greater significance when, as here, they apply over a long period of time and cover price action at the highest degree of trend. (No swing high or low has more significance than an all-time high and all-time low of a security or other asset.) Price appears to have remained stuck below the .618 retracement (R) of BTC's entire price range. This major .618 R level is the horizontal yellow line on the main chart above, and it lies at 26,359.37 . BTC broke through this key level on June 13, 2022. It had tested this level on May 12, 2022, when it held as support the same day (note the long candle shadow piercing the .618 R on May 12, 2022, and the close above this level). The fact that price has remained contained below the .618 R for almost a month and a half has bearish weight, though it's not conclusive. The importance of this level combined with the fact that another important longer-term Fibonacci level lies very near to it (a Fibonacci cluster) suggests that this area may attract price in the near term. It will be important see whether these levels repel price, or whether price can break above them. The next chart shows the Fibonacci cluster described. The .618 R level of BTC's entire range has been drawn on the chart next to the other key level, the .618 projection of the first leg in the bear market as measured from the start of the second leg. This .618 projection lies at 25,950 . Supplementary Chart 1: Fibonacci Cluster with Two Longer-Term Fibonacci Levels Shown in Yellow BTC's Fibonacci Channel Containing Price Since the All-Time High A Fibonacci channel is another approach to Fibonacci. It shows Fibonacci relationships in a more dynamic way. The zero line works as a baseline from which all other Fibonacci levels are then drawn parallel using Fibonacci proportions. The zero line contains price in much the same way as a regular uptrend or downtrend line. The primary chart above shows the Fibonacci channel for BTC's price. It has identified a significant number of support and resistance areas. The most prominent area is the diagonal .618 line which has acted as support a number of times such as in February and March 2022 and in May 2022. The .618 diagonal line also operated as resistance a few times (e.g., December 2021 and mid-January 2022). Note how the .618 diagonal line for the channel held support at the pivotal selloff on May 12, 2022, and on this date, the .618 diagonal line coincided with the .618 R ( horizontal yellow line showing BTC's .618 retracement of its entire price range). Finally, over the past 10 days, it appears that BTC's price has been working to push through the .236 diagonal line (teal). It has pushed above it slightly on several days but closed back below it: note the candle wicks piercing the line with closes below it. Today's push above the .236 diagonal line may end the same way as prior days. But if BTC holds the .236 diagonal line as support, the next level will be the zero diagonal line (blue), which was strong resistance at the end of the rally in late March 2022. Importantly, to even approach the zero diagonal line (blue), BTC's price must push through the major .618 R (horizontal yellow line) unless BTC's price consolidates or pulls back and only later tries to reach the zero diagonal line on August 19-20, 2022 . Why this date? BTC's .618 R (horizontal yellow line) coincides with the zero diagonal line (blue) on August 19-20, 2022. See the blue-filled circle on the main chart above showing where the two levels coincide. August 19, 2022 is significant date for equity indices: it is monthly options expiration, which can sometimes, though not always, serve to shift the direction of equity indices. This will be interesting to track. Tug of War Between BTC's 1.00 Projection Level at 12,173 and the Horizontal Fibonacci Cluster at 25,950 to 26,359 The Fibonacci cluster described above includes the major .618 retracement (horizontal yellow line on the main chart above) as well as the .618 projection (horizontal line shown in Supplementary Chart 1). As noted, the Fibonacci Cluster coincides with the zero diagonal line from the Fibonacci Channel on August 19-20, 2022. This Fibonacci cluster and the zero diagonal line may play tug of war with another key level at 12,173 (see green horizontal line on Supplementary Chart 1 below). This 12,173 level is the Fibonacci 1.00 projection of the first wave of the decline as measured from the start of the second wave of the decline. Each wave of the decline has been labeled on Supplementary Chart 1 below. Perhaps price will tag them both in the coming weeks. Supplementary Chart 1: Fibonacci Cluster with Two Longer-Term Fibonacci Levels Shown in Yellow Fibonacci Time Analysis with Potential Dates for Turning Points Supplementary Chart 2 below shows some Fibonacci time analyses drawn vertically with TradingView's Trend-Based Fib Time tool. The blue circles indicate where the Fibonacci proportions in time identified—or nearly identified, meaning within one to three days—a significant price move. The red circles indicate upcoming dates at Fibonacci proportions in time based on the length of time of the prior price swings. Coincidentally, consider the August 19-20, 2022 date discussed above where a horizontal .618 R of BTC's entire price range coincides with the zero diagonal line of the Fibonacci channel. This falls quite close in time to another Fibonacci time-based level: the 1.272 extension of the time span between March 28, 2022 high and the June 18, 2022 low (shown vertically in teal). Note also how other recent minor price highs in the past month were captured by this Fibonacci time-based tool. Lastly, October 29 to November 1, 2022 also appears that it might have significance. Three golden ratios (.618, 1.618, and 2.618) based on the entire price decline in terms of time, and based on the March 28-June 18, 2022 price decline, fall in this period. It may be worth watching what sort of price moves lead to this level and whether other technical evidence supports a potential reversal there. Supplementary Chart 2: Fibonacci Time Analysis BITSTAMP:BTCUSD COINBASE:BTCUSD KRAKEN:BTCUSD BINANCE:BTCUSDT CME:BTC1!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by SquishTrade