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Fibonacci Retracement

Will Solana experience a major correction again?Hello everyone, let's look at the 1D SOL to USD chart, in this situation we can see how the price is moving in the formed downward channel, where the price is currently recovering again. Let's start by defining the targets for the near future that the price has to face: T1 = 133 USD T2 = 145 USD Т3 = 155 USD Т4 = 167 USD Now let's move on to the stop-loss in case the market continues to fall: SL1 = 121 USD SL2 = 111 USD SL3 = 103 USD SL4 = 95 USD If we look at the RSI indicator, we can see how the movement is constantly moving in the lower part of the range, where we have another downward bounce, and here we can see how we are approaching a test of the local uptrend that is close to breaking.
COINBASE:SOLUSD
by cryptodailyuk
1
BITCOIN → Short-squeeze 86-89K before falling further to 75KBINANCE:BTCUSD continues to form a downtrend after breaking the bullish structure on the weekly timeframe. There is no bullish driver yet, and technically, the price is heading to the global imbalance zone of 75-73K The past crypto summit and any other talk of cryptovalt support cannot support the market. Such events end with further market decline. Technically, the market continues to form a downtrend (global counter-trend), based on this alone, we can say that the price is now going against the crowd and this is generally logical behavior. Globally, the zone of interest is located in the following zones - 75K, 73K and order block 69-66K Locally, I would emphasize the nearest liquidity zones, located at the top, which can be tested before the further fall: 86697, 89.397 Resistance levels: 85135, 86678, 89397 Support levels: 79987, 78173, 73512 After the false break of 78K support there is no strong reaction, the market is forming a struggle for 84-85K zone, which generally indicates buying weakness. Before the further fall there may be a short-squeeze relative to the above mentioned zones of liquidity, which may lead to a further fall Regards R. Linda!
BINANCE:BTCUSDShort
by RLinda
33
$TRUMP ─ @realDonaldTrump Long Trade SETUP$TRUMP ─ @realDonaldTrump Long Trade SETUP 👀 Looking for another long trade entry. ⚠️If the Twin OB fails, then a new low is on the table. ENTRY = TwinOB + FibFan + nPOC + Fib Golden Pocket + WO + DO SL = below VAL + TwinOB ------------ ------------ As always, my play is: ✅ 50% out at TP1 ✅ Move SL to entry ✅ Pre-set the rest of the position across remaining TPs It's important to take profits along the way and not turn a winning trade into a losing trade.
Long
by Bulltro
SOL Trading Plan: Stacking Entries Like a ProSolana (SOL) has been in a slow uptrend over the past five days, after hitting the low at $112. The current price action looks like an ABC corrective pattern, which could mean we’re setting up for lower prices. To get the best trade execution, we'll use a laddered entry approach, meaning we’ll scale into positions gradually instead of going all in at once. This helps us get a better average entry price while managing risk effectively. By placing orders at key levels, we increase our chances of catching the right move without overcommitting too early. Resistance Zone ($136 - $143.80) A major resistance zone has formed between $136 - $143.80, where price is likely to struggle. This area contains multiple technical confluences that suggest a potential reversal or strong reaction: $136 – 0.618 Fibonacci Retracement $140.09 – 1:1 Trend-Based Fibonacci Extension $141.40 – Anchored VWAP from the $179.85 swing high $143.80 – Point of Control (POC) from the 19-day Fixed Range Volume Profile This makes $136 - $143.80 a prime area to consider short positions, especially if price starts showing weakness. Support Zone ($102.1 - $98.50) On the downside, a major demand zone is forming between $102.1 - $98.50, where buyers are likely to step in aggressively. This zone has multiple technical confluences, making it a high-probability long entry area: $102.1 – 2024 Yearly Open & Monthly Support $100 – Bullish Monthly Order Block & Anchored VWAP Support $98.50 – Final key demand zone This zone presents a solid long opportunity, allowing for gradual scaling into positions as price moves deeper into support. Short Trade Setup – Laddered Entry Approach Instead of entering all at once, we’ll ladder into the short position gradually, starting small and increasing size as price moves deeper into resistance. Short Entry Levels & Position Sizing Trade Details Average Entry Price: $140.12 Take Profit Target: slightly above $102.10 (Monthly Level) Stop Loss: slightly above $146.70 (Above POC) Risk-Reward Ratio (R:R): ~6:1 Long Trade Setup – Laddered Entry Approach For the long setup, we start with small entries at higher prices and increase size as price moves deeper into support, ensuring a better average entry in a key demand zone. Long Entry Levels & Position Sizing Trade Details Average Entry Price: $102.72 Take Profit Target: slightly below $120.00 Stop Loss: slightly below $95.00 Risk-Reward Ratio (R:R): ~2.45:1 Market Outlook Short Bias: Until price reclaims $143.80, this remains a strong resistance zone for potential short trades. Short Setup: Laddering into resistance ensures better risk management and higher average entry efficiency. Long Setup: Starting small at $112 and increasing position size down to $98.50 ensures strong positioning in a high-confluence demand zone. By scaling into trades rather than committing at a single price, we increase flexibility, improve trade execution, and adapt better to price movements. 🚀 Weekly Timeframe - 200 EMA Support $100 coincides with the 200 EMA on the weekly timeframe, adding confluence to this area as strong support. If Solana decisively breaks above $144, it would invalidate the short thesis and suggest a potential move higher toward $150. Conversely, a strong rejection from the resistance zone would likely accelerate the move toward $112 to test demand at swing low.
Short
by SiDec
14
DEGOUSDT → An attempt to change the trend will end in a fallBINANCE:DEGOUSDT.P tried to break the trend, but faced strong resistance and a weak cryptocurrency market. The fall may continue... After breaking through the resistance of the descending channel, a bullish momentum (distribution) of 45% is formed, but the price bumps into a strong resistance of 2.11 - 2.18, which forms a trading range. Bears are not ready to give this zone to buyers and put pressure, a false breakout of resistance is formed after a long struggle for this zone and liquidation is formed when the base of 2.0 is broken. Buyers are in the panic zone. If the price fixes below 2.11 - 2.18, the fall in the short or medium term may continue. Resistance levels: 2.00, 2.18, 2.274 Support levels: 1.75, 1.584, 1.359 The market is generally weak and altcoins are reacting aggressively to local bitcoin movements (the point of which is to gather liquidity before a further fall). BTC has not yet reached a key target, which together with the lack of a bullish driver in the market creates pressure for altcoins. Regards R. Linda!
Short
by RLinda
2
GOLD → Distribution phase. One step away from $3000. Up!FX:XAUUSD breaks upward and reaches the intermediate target. After strong growth there is no pullback at all. A consolidation is forming which shows us strong levels. Gold updates ATH to +2990, preparing to overcome $3,000. Growth is being fueled by Trump's trade war and expectations of a Fed rate cut. Investors are cautious ahead of the Fed meeting. A stronger dollar and hopes for a US-Canada trade truce may temporarily cause a correction, but it is not the strongest factor. However, recession risks and escalation of trade and geopolitical conflicts may increase demand for protective assets, supporting the growth of gold prices Technically, the price is in consolidation, relative to which there may be a breakthrough of resistance and further growth. Or a local false breakout, correction to support at 2980 and continuation of growth after support retest Resistance levels: 2993, 3000, 3008 Support levels: 2981, 2956 Thus, if the bulls are able to consolidate above 2993, the price may continue its aggressive growth. BUT! There is a possibility of correction to the risk (liquidity) zone 2981 - 2977 before gold resumes its growth. Regards R. Linda!
FX:XAUUSDLong
by RLinda
12
GOLD → Testing ATH. High chance of a breakout 2954FX:XAUUSD in the distribution phase of the previously formed consolidation. The price is testing ATH and the market has all chances for a breakout and further update of the high. We are close to 3K Gold price continues to rise, approaching a record high of $2,956, amid fears of a global trade war. Lower US inflation has weakened the dollar and bond yields, boosting demand for gold. Markets now await PPI data, but escalating trade conflict remains key. Technically, gold is testing global range resistance a month after last touching it. I don't like to trade primary breakouts in such a case and the ideal scenario would be to wait for a small consolidation near the level or a correction to 2945 - 2935 before the metal starts to tetse 2954.5 for a breakout Resistance levels: 2954.5 Support levels: 2945, 2935, 2930 As a first move I expect a pullback after resistance test. A retest of 2954.5 (retest) will mean that buyers are ready to break the resistance and go higher. BUT, we have important news today. Gold could break the level without a pullback. A close above 2954.5 will trigger a rally. Regards R. Linda!
FX:XAUUSDLong
by RLinda
18
relief pumpSeems like election bull was already priced in, new money got washed. Bonds are making a comeback, cash is a position. Expecting more downturn after a relief pump, coinciding with yields retracement. Yields trending with equity price are usually signs of either economical expansion or economical fears, such as slowdown or recession, during up and downs. The markets just jumped from one narrative to the other: expansion(trump gets in office) ---> slowdown(tariffs imposed) I think the expansion narrative will take a while to settle back(end of Q2 at least) after all the executive orders signed. Although, I'm still long for the month of March, nice opportunity for a relief pump, before resuming of slowdown narrative.
TVC:US10YLong
by Osmanomics
GOLD → Retest of 2926 before a possible breakout. CPI aheadGold is rising after long-squeeze and consolidating at the top of the 2926 - 2893 range, which is generally a hint that the market is getting ready to break resistance. But it all depends on CPI Traders awaiting US CPI data. The dollar is partially recovering before the news, which is holding back gold, which continues to consolidate in front of 2921, but weak inflation data may push prices up again. New trade measures as part of Trump's tariff war and geopolitical tensions are having an additional impact. The negative part for the markets presents the lack of a clear position of the leaders of the countries and constantly changing opinions: then they specify tariffs, then cancel them. Inadequate swings in the markets. Resistance levels: 2920, 2926 Support levels: 2910, 2905, 2893 Emphasis on 2926, breakdown of this level will trigger a bullish rally. Now the price is trying to get out of the local consolidation to test 2926, from which a small correction is possible before another breakout. The focus on CPI, weak data may support further price growth. Regards R. Linda!
FX:XAUUSDLong
by RLinda
13
QUICKUSDT → Pending a false breakout of resistanceBINANCE:QUICKUSDT is forming counter-trend movement to the resistance of the range - 0.02957. A false breakdown of the key level is formed against the background of the downtrend The cryptocurrency market is experiencing bad times. While bitcoin is testing new lows - 76K, altcoins are cutting through to find another bottom. QUICK stands out in this picture, testing a strong resistance (liquidity) zone 0.02845 - 0.02957 and forming a false breakout. BUT! in the morning session bitcoin strengthens after a strong fall and can pull the whole market up with it. Thus, before the further fall another attempt to retest 0.02953 or update the tail of the false breakout at 0.03000 (0.7fibo) is possible. Resistance levels: 0.0285, 0.02953, 0.0300. Support levels: 0.0243, 0.02118 If the next resistance retest ends in a false breakdown and price consolidation under 0.02957, QUICK coin may continue its decline in the short and medium term. Regards R. Linda!
Short
by RLinda
1
PEAQ down 87% – Is it Time to Buy the Dip?PEAQ has been in a brutal downtrend, dropping 87% within 92 days and printing 9 straight weekly red candles, with the 10th currently red as it trades below the weekly open. Now, price is attempting to stabilise around the key $0.10 level, hinting at a potential high-probability long trade setup. Key Levels to Watch: Support: $0.10 (Price has been trying to hold this level for two days.) Resistance: $0.11 (A reclaim of this level increases the probability of a move higher.) Major Resistance: $0.1260 – $0.1280 (Weekly open + bearish order block.) Technical Confluences Supporting the Trade: The Fib retracement from $0.1337 to $0.0989 shows that the 0.786 Fib level ($0.1263) aligns with the bearish order block from the previous trading range. The weekly open at $0.128 strengthens the take-profit zone, making it a logical exit point. Price has failed to break below $0.10, signaling a possible accumulation phase. Long Trade Setup Entry: Around $0.10 Stop Loss: Below $0.0989 (Tight SL for minimal risk) Take Profit Target: $0.1260 (Right before key resistance) Risk-to-Reward (R:R): 17:1 🚀 (Risking only 1.5% to potentially gain 25%) Additional Play: If price reclaims $0.11 with strong volume, look for order flow confirmation to add to the position. The move towards $0.12+ could be quick, as there's little resistance in between. This setup offers a strong risk-reward ratio, making it an attractive trade with minimal downside and high upside potential. Watch for bullish momentum above $0.11, as that could confirm a stronger push to the weekly open at $0.128.
Long
by SiDec
5
ETH/USD 1D Chart ReviewHey everyone, let's look at the 1D ETH to USD chart, in this situation we can see how the price has reverted back to the long-standing uptrend, and here we can see a significant decline below the uptrend line. In the event that the trend reverses and growth begins again, it is worth setting targets for the near future that the price must face: T1 = 2246 USD T2 = 2533 USD Т3 = 2785 USD Т4 = 3010 USD Т5 = 3365 USD However, here we can see how the current decline has been maintained by the support zone from $ 1904 to $ 1686, however, if the zone is broken further, we can see a decline to the level of $ 1338, and then again we can have the price go down to the area of ​​$ 921 The RSI indicator shows a continuing downward trend, and here we can see a decline to the lower part of the range, but there is still room for the price to go lower to the lower limit.
INDEX:ETHUSD
by cryptodailyuk
Hedera Goes From April Highs, To ATH, To Elliot Wave Theory? Lets break down what COINBASE:HBARUSD may be setting up for a long-term scenario! We saw a impressive Bullish Rally from beginning of November 2024 that facilitated a Breakout of the April 2024 High @ .1842 to then create its All Time High @ .4010. With this Price Action going from a Significant Low to create a new Higher High, we can apply the Elliot Wave Theory which is first supported by seeing some sort of Fibonacci Retracement from the Low to New High and we see that February of 2025 delivered a Fibonacci Retracement to the Golden Ratio Zone twice to now be showing support from Bulls pushing price higher! Technically, with Wave 1 having been corrected successfully by Wave 2, both being completed, we now can expect price to give us another extension starting Wave 3, giving us a Break of the ATH created by Wave 1, to then confirm our directional bias and validate the Elliot Wave Theory. Based on the Fibonacci Extension, we can project a potential "Roadmap" price may follow while outlining the rest of the Impulse and Corrective Waves where we see Price ultimately ending Wave 5 at the Potential Range Target of ( .7571 - .89441 ) Rules: - The 2nd Wave cannot retrace the 1st Wave more than 100% - The 3rd Wave can never be the shortest of the Impulse Waves ( 1,3,5 ) - The 4th Wave cannot retrace the 3rd Wave more than 100%
COINBASE:HBARUSDLong
by Novi_Fibonacci
5
SUI - Short or Long? The Ultimate SUI Trade BlueprintHere’s an update to the analysis I did one month ago on February 10. Since then, SUI has continued to show its bearish tendencies—making lower highs and lower lows. After that dramatic 30% drop from a golden pocket short opportunity, the price started inching up on low volume. This weak rally suggests that while buyers are testing the ceiling, the overall trend remains down. That sets the stage for two possible plays: a short trade if the price reaches the resistance zone, and a long trade if it bounces off a strong support level. 1. Identification of Support and Resistance Zones Resistance Zone (for the Short Trade): Daily Resistance: ~2.7888 Point of Control (POC): Around 2.8035 Monthly Open: 2.83 0.618 Fibonacci Retracement: 2.8711 All these levels combine to create a robust resistance area where sellers are likely to step in. Support Zone (for the Long Trade): $2 Psychological Level: A key round number that attracts attention. 0.7 Fibonacci Retracement: Derived from the swing low of $0.4625 to the high of $5.3687, this places an important level at 1.9344 (just below $2). Monthly Bullish Order Block: At 1.9137, indicating buying interest. Fib Speed Fan (0.786): Points to support near the $2 mark. POC: 2.0225 Anchored VWAP: Calculated from the deep low at $0.362, which again aligns around $2. These multiple layers of confluence make the $2 area a strong support zone and an attractive entry point for a long trade. 2. Short Trade Setup The Plan: Building a short position gradually using a laddering strategy. With a $15,000 allocation from a $100,000 account, scale in at different levels to keep risk in check. Scaling In (Entry Levels): Entry # Entry Price % of Position Amount Invested ($) 1 2.6808 5% $750 2 2.7070 5% $750 3 2.7314 10% $1,500 4 2.7552 10% $1,500 5 2.7755 10% $1,500 6 2.7990 15% $2,250 7 2.8242 20% $3,000 8 2.8485 25% $3,750 Total: Avg. ~2.7924 $15,000 Stop Loss: Set at $3.07, limiting the risk to about $1,506 (roughly 10% of the trade allocation or 1.51% of the account). Scaling Out (Exit Levels): Exit Cover Price % of Position Amount Paid to Cover ($) 1 2.7925 5% $750.02 2 2.1715 5% $583.23 3 2.1365 10% $1,147.66 4 2.0981 20% $2,254.07 5 2.0630 20% $2,216.36 6 2.0257 10% $1,088.14 7 1.9930 15% $1,605.87 8 1.9625 15% $1,581.29 Outcome: Total: Avg. ~2.09 $11,226.65 Net Profit: $15,000 (initial proceeds) – $11,226.65 (cost to cover) = $3,773.35 Profit % on Trade: +25.16% Risk-to-Reward Ratio (R:R): Approximately 2.51 This laddering approach helps to secure profits at various levels while managing the risk effectively. 3. Long Trade Setup The $2 support zone is a magnet, backed by multiple confluences. When SUI tests this area and shows signs of a rebound, it sets up a great opportunity to go long. Key Support Details: $2 Psychological Level: A well-watched price point. 0.7 Fibonacci Retracement: Places a key level at 1.9344 from the low ($0.4625) to the high ($5.3687). Monthly Bullish Order Block: At 1.9137, adding to the support. Fib Speed Fan (0.786): Confirms support near $2. POC & Anchored VWAP: Both clustering around $2 (POC at 2.0225 and VWAP from a low of $0.362). Trade Details: Entry: Buy at $2.00 Target: Sell at $2.337 for an approximate 20%+ gain Stop Loss: Set just below $1.80 to protect against further downside Risk-to-Reward Ratio: About 2.44 or better Wrapping It Up In this dual-setup strategy, we're well-prepared for different market outcomes: Short Trade: If SUI rallies into the tightly clustered resistance zone, scale into a short with defined entries, exits, and a stop loss that caps our risk at about 1.51% of the account. Exit ladder aims for an average cover price of around $2.09, netting a neat profit of approximately $3,773 (or +25.16% on the trade). Long Trade: Conversely, if SUI finds strong footing at the confluence-rich $2 support zone, we can flip to a long position. Entering at $2.00, with a target of $2.337 and a stop loss below $1.80, gives an attractive risk-to-reward ratio of roughly 2.44. This approach lets us capitalise on both sides of the market. Keep an eye on volume and price action. Happy trading! P.S. If you have any coin requests, feel free to share them in the comments. I will be selecting one or two for the next TA.
Short
by SiDec
4
GOLD → Long-sqeeze (double bottom) before breakout 2926FX:XAUUSD is forming the maneuver we need regarding the previously mentioned consolidation. False break of support on the background of the rising market, we discussed it with you yesterday. The reaction is the formation of a reversal set-up and bullish momentum This week the markets are awaiting the JOLTS jobs report (today) and CPI data (Wednesday), which could provide fresh impetus to prices. Additional pressure comes from expectations of US-Ukraine peace talks, a possible mineral agreement and ongoing trade tensions related to Trump's protectionism. However, a weaker dollar and lower bond yields are supporting gold, limiting its losses Gold may test yesterday's high and after a slight pullback continue to rise with a target of retesting the 2926 consolidation resistance. The market structure is bullish at the moment and it plays to our advantage.... Resistance levels: 2918, 2926, 2942 Support levels: 2905, 2893.5, 2880 At the moment the price is still in consolidation, but the price is forming a bullish rally due to the collected liquidity in the Asian session. The local pattern “double bottom” is formed (false breakdown of support) and the next target is the resistance of consolidation 2926. Also focus on 2918 - possible retest and pullback to 0.5 fibo before the price will storm 2926. Regards R. Linda!
FX:XAUUSDLong
by RLinda
6
GOLD → Strong consolidation. What could happen?FX:XAUUSD is consolidating in the range of 2926 - 2890. The market is generally bullish, but there is a high probability of a short / long-squeeze before the strong news, which will be on Wednesday. Markets are waiting for data on inflation and employment in the U.S., which may affect the Fed's decisions. Despite a weaker dollar and expectations of monetary easing, Fed chief Jerome Powell remains cautious. Gold demand is supported by China, which is increasing purchases, as well as growing fears of stagflation in the US. However, traders are keeping an eye on new economic data and the impact of Chinese tariffs on US goods Technically, the focus is on 2926 - 2890. The ideal scenario in a bull market would be a false break of the support at 2893 - 2890 and further growth due to the change of imbalance in the market after liquidation and liquidity capture. But, based on the current situation (strong range) there is a high probability of short-squeeze or long-squeeze. Resistance levels: 2926, 2942 Support levels: 2893, 2890 At the moment the emphasis is on 2926. Formation of pre-breakout consolidation, further breakout and price consolidation above the resistance can provoke a bullish impulse. But the difficulty is that the support has not been tested yet. If the price approaches 2926 very quickly, a false breakout could be made and in that case the price could go down to 2890 to retest the liquidity zone before storming 2926 for further upside. Regards R. Linda!
FX:XAUUSDLong
by RLinda
9
POPCATUSDT → False breakout of bearish trend resistanceBINANCE:POPCATUSDT.P is testing trend resistance on the 4H timeframe. A sharp approach and a false breakdown of the upper boundary of the channel may provoke a correction or continuation of the decline The global trend is downtrend, the locational trend also coincides with the global trend. Bitcoin cannot become a bullish driver for altcoins yet. Yesterday's economic news also had a negative impact on the market. In addition, the cryptocurrency community was betting big on Trump, but he has put cryptocurrencies on the back burner. Technically, POPCAT is testing the channel resistance with a false breakout within the downtrend. Consolidation of the price below 0.322 could trigger further selling. Resistance levels: 0.322, correction resistance Support levels: 0.2386, 0.1596 I do not exclude the possibility of retesting the resistance of the correction channel, but due to bearish pressure and weak market the decline may continue. Regards R. Linda!
Short
by RLinda
4
SOLVUSDT → Retest of resistance in a bearish trendBINANCE:SOLVUSDT is strengthening within a neutral range, which is formed amid a downtrend. Cryptocurrency market quickly sells off potential after Sunday's news Bitcoin is back to the selling zone, under the 90K area. A subsequent decline in the flagship could negatively impact the entire market. SOLV is forming a range of 0.044 - 0.0292. The price is strengthening and tends to the zone of interest and liquidity. Against the background of key preconditions (downtrend, weak market, absence of driver, falling bitcoin) we can assume that the coin has no potential for further growth and the current maneuver may end up with a false break of resistance followed by a fall. Resistance levels: 0.0436, 0.0439, 0.0494 Support levels: 0.0369, 0.0345 From the opening of the session, the daily ATR will be exhausted by the time resistance is reached, thus there will be no potential for resistance breakout. High probability of a bounce from 0.0436-0.0439 with the purpose of further fall to the key zones of interest located below. Regards R. Linda!
Short
by RLinda
1
End of hibernation for the bears?AMEX:SPY is at a pivotal point and could potentially be at the top of the bullish cycle that began in October 2022. If this prediction proves accurate, I think we could see a maximum low of $510 for this year. There are a couple of caveats, including one that will be a clear indicator of whether or not this wave count is accurate, which I will explain later. On the 1000R chart ($10), this uptrend was confirmed by Supertrend and volume activity. Volume drastically increased at the start of Wave (3) in March 2023 and did not taper off until the start of Wave (4) in July 2024. This was the strongest impulse in the trend, which is common for Wave 3. You can also see the ADX line of the DMI indicator (white line) was at its highest level during that period. Assuming Wave (5) is already complete, we can observe that the volume in Wave (3) was considerably less than Wave (5). Other observations supporting this wave count: - Wave (4) retracing into the territory of Wave 4 of (3) - Alternation in corrective patterns between Wave (2) and Wave (4); flat in (2) and straight down in (4) - Wave (5) extending to nearly 1.618 of (1) While the points I’ve made so far suggest that the market may be on the verge of a crash, the image gets more complicated when you take a closer look on the 250R chart ($2.50). I’ll start with what I’m counting as Wave 4 of (5). The price ended at ATH in Wave 3 and then corrected in an unmistakable five wave descending wedge pattern. This can only be a fourth wave of a larger impulse, so we can conclude with a fair amount of confidence that the wave that follows will be the last. Here is where things get interesting. The price moved from $575 on January 13th to a slightly higher ATH of $609.24 on January 24th before being rejected again. This uptrend unfolded in a typical bullish pattern and left a notable gap at $584, which is the only gap still left unfilled. The trend change is confirmed on the moving averages. Notice the serious drop in volume that followed as well. Despite the shift in volume, there are two issues I have with this wave count that are preventing me from calling this a confirmed correction: 1. Wave 5 of (5) was awfully short and only extended roughly $2 above the end of Wave 3 of (5). This does not break any rules, but it is unusual. 2. What I have labelled as Wave B of Wave (1) or (A) of the correction made a new ATH on Friday February 14th, which should invalidate this wave count since the end of Wave 5 of (5) should be the peak. The second point is why some may think that we are about to resume the larger bull trend, however there is a possibility that they are mistaken based off the PA on the actual index SP:SPX and futures CME_MINI:ES1! . On the SP:SPX chart, we can see that the index did not break the ATH at $6128.18 set on January 25th, and instead rejected at $6,127.24. CME_MINI:ES1! also failed to notch a new ATH on Friday and I have observed the price action create a nearly perfect bearish butterfly pattern. Also notice how the volume is significantly lower than in the uptrend that began on January 31st. So the question remains: are we at a tipping point or will the bulls regain control? Right now it’s unclear, but I will keep my bearish sentiment until SP:SPX makes a new ATH, which will invalidate this theory. Since only the ETF that tracks it only made a slightly higher high on low volume, I’m skeptical of the PA on AMEX:SPY at the moment. This is why I entered puts on Friday. If the trade plays out, I expect the price to quickly move to fill the gap at $584, which is still conveniently located at what I cam considering the 1.236 extension of Wave A, which is a common target extension in flat corrections. I will keep my puts open until this idea is invalidated, as the Wave C drop will likely be caused by a news event that could come at any time. Let me know if you guys are seeing the same thing or something different. Good luck to all!
AMEX:SPYShort
by ap769
3