FUBO "B" wave bottoming? First upside target 4.85USD?This is a followup idea on my previous one where we "idezied" the bottoming process, which so far has been manifested. So far I see it as a huge (A)(B)(C) forming to the upside, hence the choppiness, which overall LIKELY will stay as 3 wave structure hitting a several year upside target of between 22 - 84 USD, too soon to projectile anything more proper target. Can it be something even more bullish? Yes, but it has to proove a lot in the upcoming years. In that case it is LIKELY to be a huge overall diagonal.
What I lean towards is that we are in the huge white (A) wave, unfinished still, within that we likely to have a big ABC structure, in which the "A" wave likely completed, and we are in the "B" wave down. I have already removed the 0.382 and 0.5 fib retracement levels, generally we are reaching/has reached a very good risk/reward ratio already for the long term.
As this could be the b wave down, it is quiet tricky, morphing, wavecount changing and evolving, and likely to have more choppiness. Even it COULD undershoot as still be valid, hence I have carefully, but constantly scaling back-in for long
Next support levels to watch: 1.65-1.50
After that: 1.30-1.20 (less likely, but CAN happen)
After that: 1.16-1.05 (even less likely, but CAN happen)
Currently we are below all meaningfull moving averages (9/21/50/180&200 day MA's), but within support.
I have added a "bearish" route/count as well, for the very long term I am still bullish even in that scenario, however likely to have 1 or 2 more swingdowns deeper to complete the yellow route big wave 5, and THEN (assuming no banktrupcy) would have at least a very strong correction to the upside.
Fibonacci Retracement
ASML Elliot ABC Correction Wave I think ASML will decline with the Elliot correction wave after today's financials.
I think this correction could be up to $680-820 levels.
There is a gap around $ 780, at least I think this gap will be filled.
Every upward reaction in ASML above around $900 is an opportunity for a short position. As long as ASML remains below $1050, I plan to increase my short position on any upward price reaction above $900.
All Eyes on Critical Support for Bitcoin!All eyes must now be watching BITSTAMP:BTCUSD 's flag support shown in the primary chart above. Since BTC's all-time high at $73,794, BTC has had a steady, yet volatile, pattern of consolidation that has fit within a downward sloping flag channel, often called a bull flag. Yet a bull flag isn't a bull flag anymore if the lower channel breaks down decisively. So that's why all eyes are on this support now.
Interestingly, the yellow line in the primary chart above is a Fibonacci .618 retracement at $51,985. This .618 retracement coincides to some extent with flag support today. If the .618 retracement cannot provide support along with the descending channel's return line, then one can expect lower prices to retest, at a minimum, the major swing low on January 23, 2024.
With an escalation in geopolitical conflict, prices can be more volatile than normal. This can mean that support / resistance boundaries are broken more easily. And false rallies and dips can be more fierce and seductive. So be careful out there!
Even if relief rallies ensue, price may continue to struggle into next year. But don't rely on anyone's predictions—including mine! Try to stay objective, unbiased, and continue to watch what price is telling you—without trying to force your assumptions into the price action. In other words, what price is doing a week from now, a month from now, a year from now, will give you more information than virtually any trader or technical analyst can tell you.
Lastly, here are some longer-term levels that can be watched in the event price breaks down further from this flag / channel.
BTC is approaching its bottom in the 51k areaIt seems that BTC is approaching its bottom in the 51k area, as seen from several indicators including:
1. Fibo 0.618 (goldenratio) correction from impulsive wave from January to March
2. Major support at 51k has not been visited since February
3. Finishing ABCDE correction wave
4. Bottom trendline descending channel formed since March
5. Liquidity heatmap is around 51k
6. CME gap at 58k has been filled, and another gap has emerged above in the 59.5k - 62k area
7. Fear and greed at 26 (FEAR)
ETH-USDT 12HInterval Chart ReviewHello everyone, let's take a look at the ETH to USDT chart on a 12-hour time frame. How can we see how the downtrend channel has been defined for us, in which we are at the lower border.
Let's start by determining the support line and here you can see how the support at $2,823 has been broken and we are currently approaching the strong support at $2,626, while when we start going further, the next support is around $2,392.
Looking the other way, there is resistance at $2,922, and then the price will again have to face the resistance zone from $3,098 to $3,225.
Saudi wants production cuts, America doesn'tAlthough everyone is cutting down production, even SHELL, we are seeing the narrative of higher prices for longer. OPEC wants to cut beginning October 2024 until 25.
This might be for a multitude of reasons, which makes it quite unclear what the goal is. After falling demand and easing in production, my narrative is that we might see prices fall instead of rise, even though we are trying to limit supply, I think markets are going to want to lower prices as energy scarcity becomes vulnerable and volatility will rise. Geopolitical risks has not eased.
US SPR is lower than a quarter of its peak in 2021. My bet of dropping prices lies on that. As well as Trump having 70% chance of coming into office, I expect a welcoming gift from MBS giving us discounts on gas!
BTC Wedge Approaching 3 Targets3 Targets derived from the rising wedge that developed into the Trump Speech looking for a final low before the Bull Run can begin.
1) Rising wedge target ~57k lining up with 0.786 fib of that move.
2) Bear pole leg into the rising wedge gives us target 2 around 52K if 57k does not hold.
3) More unlikely we go this low but ~49k for the entire bear pole leg going into the wedge as target 3.
NVIDIA updateRecently, test of finding a top turned out to be a success. However, after entering into an uptrend on lower timeframes, price had a sudden drop while it was nearing all-time highs. This puts in risk the first trade of the referenced idea at risk.
The reason we get a sell signal is because: The recent raise in price action was not enough to overcome the downward movement of the correction. However, the 25 MA usually works as a key support-resistance. Therefore, it's currently being used as support, but if this support fails its likely price will return to the current lows where the 25 MA would most likely become resistance and would test price action before determining to create a new low or continue an uptrend. The best movement for technical uptrend health is a slight correction into current lows before forming a new uptrend.
This movement will also be important for the SP:SPX as NASDAQ:NVDA holds a quite large share of the index at the moment. This could be the formations of the downtrend brought by the cyclicality of uptrends and downtrends. As it was mentioned in the referenced idea.
NZD/JPY Daily setupThe NZD/JPY pair has fallen by 920 pips over the past 15 days. Such a significant and sustained decline is unlikely to continue indefinitely without a corrective pullback. Currently, the price has halted its downward momentum and is beginning to reverse near my key area of interest.
Key Confluences:
The pair is rebounding off a descending trend line that has been in place since November 2023.
It is also bouncing off an ascending trend line that has been in place since August 2023.
The price is reacting to the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level.
It is rejecting the significant psychological level of 90.000.
Market Structure
The JPY basket has reached a resistance level and is starting to decline.
These factors suggest a potential reversal or correction in the NZD/JPY pair.
NZD/JPY 4hr TF
Has currently closed on the 4 hour TF nicely I expect NZD/JPY to start having an healthy pull back.
JPY Basket weekly TF
Is currently reacting off my area of interest I expect price to start moving lower.
JPY Basket Daily TF
JPY Basket 4hr TF
Gold 4hr setup Gold is presently experiencing a bearish trend, characterized by a pattern of lower highs and lower lows since peaking at 2484.14. I anticipate that gold will encounter resistance at the temporary rejection level before declining further. Subsequently, I expect it to rebound and ascend to my target area, which is approximately between 2400 and 2402.02.
Confluences supporting this analysis include:
A downward trendline indicating a continuation of the bearish trend.
An upward trendline suggesting a potential reversal point.
A rejection zone between 2400 and 2402.02, which is a significant area of interest.
The round number of 2,400, often a psychological level in trading.
The 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level
Market structure.
Expectations of the US Dollar strengthening.
Gold Daily
Dollar Index
Silver
ETH-USDT 12HHello everyone, let's take a look at the ETH to USDT chart on the 12h time frame. As you can see, the price broke out of the falling triangle, which resulted in a strong downward price movement.
Let's start by determining the support line, but here you can see how we are first in the support zone, but if we fall lower, the next support is at $2,823 and then we have strong support at $2,626.
Looking the other way, we have visible resistance at $3,146, then strong resistance at $3,263, and then the price must overcome the strong resistance zone from $3,441 to $3,566.
GOLD → Ahead of NFP. Shall we get to 2500?FX:XAUUSD is making new highs and approaching a strong resistance zone from which a small correction may follow before a further rise. NFP is ahead, which may set a short-term backdrop
The dollar is in a sideways range ahead of the news, which generally indicates a neutral mood among traders. Strong news can either renew the dollar's decline, which will be favorable for gold, or have the opposite reaction, so it is necessary to look at the actual data.
Technically, the gold is approaching the ATH and there is a high probability that the price will not only test the high, but also update it. In general, the fundamental and technical background is positive this week and I think that in the short and medium term we should wait for the continuation of growth.
Resistance levels: 2368, 2475, 2483
Support levels: 2451, 2440, 2430
Gold reduces volatility before the news as speculators go into wait-and-see mode. High volatility is expected, on this background the price may test the support before further growth. But if the resistance of 2483-2475 is broken at once, the price may go to 2500-2550.
Rate, share your opinion and questions, let's discuss what's going on with ★GOLD ;
Regards R. Linda!
SMCI: The Next Major Inflection Point! (D&W charts)On the daily chart, the stock experienced a notable downward breakout, moving sharply below a confluence of trendlines that had previously served as support. This breakout is significant as it suggests a strong bearish momentum, possibly indicating a shift in investor sentiment. The price is below the 21-day EMA, and there is no bottom signal on it yet.
In our previous public SMCI analysis, I warned you about this trend line, as a downwards breakout would frustrate any possibility of a bullish thesis, mid-term speaking. The link to our previous study, here on TradingView, is below this post.
Transitioning to the weekly chart provides a broader perspective, showing the stock's performance over a longer timeframe. Here, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level stands out as the next significant support level following the recent declines. This specific Fibonacci level is often watched by traders for potential reversal zones and could act as a strong area of interest for buying activities if prices were to reach this point.
The weekly chart also underscores a general downtrend after failing to maintain higher levels, which aligns with the bearish sentiment observed on the daily chart. The consistency of lower highs further emphasizes the pressure on the stock.
Overall, the convergence of these technical factors across different timeframes suggests that SMCI may face continued downward pressure in the near term, with crucial support at the 61.8% Fibonacci level possibly serving as a pivotal area for the stock's next directional moves.
For more detailed technical analyses and insights like this, be sure to follow my account. Your support helps me continue providing valuable content to help you make informed trading decisions.
Remember, real trading is reactive, not predictive, so let's stay focused on the key points described above and only trade when there is confirmation.
“To anticipate the market is to gamble. To be patient and react only when the market gives the signal is to speculate.” — Jesse Lauriston Livermore
All the best,
Nathan.
BTC retracement dumpAs you can see, potential final Elliot wave lower high on daily.
Like to see final discounts before potential rate cut cycle.
(FED spoke yesterday and seemed bullish for rate cuts during 2025, coinciding with elections and time variable with potential price action picking back up during then)
GBPJPY → Ahead of a rate hike in Japan...FX:GBPJPY intends to continue the current bearish rally. The price temporarily stops at the 197.00 zone for a short respite before falling further. The market is expecting an interest rate hike in Japan...
Price breaks the bullish market structure and then confirms the bearish one, indicating a change in the global trend. Volatility is rising in Japanese markets, with the Bank of Japan expected to discuss a rate hike this week and consider a plan to halve government bond purchases. This is a strong scenario for the strengthening of the national currency, traders are reducing the number of short positions this time.
Technically, the focus is on the level of 197.2, this zone splits the market into two zones. Accordingly, price consolidation below this level will be the starting point before the rally.
Support levels: 195.8, 193.8, 191.8
Resistance levels: 197.2, 198.75
Both fundamentally and technically everything is steamed towards further decline. The actions of the Central Bank of Japan affect the rate quite strongly...
Rate, share your opinion and questions, let's discuss what's going on with ★GBPJPY ;)
Regards R. Linda!
GOLD → Bulls hold the defense. Retest of resistance...FX:XAUUSD is strengthening from 2370 and testing the resistance of the actual local trend. Dollar in range ahead of news...
Traders are waiting for Wednesday and the FOMC conference, where they may discuss atcual situation on inflation and monetary policy, as well as Fed Interest Rate Decision, where most likely the interest rate will remain at the same level, but may make a good hint on a soon decline....
Gold on D1 is consolidating above the support line, which generally determines the future prospects for us. Locally, the bulls hold the defense above 2370, forming further growth, within which they break the resistance of the local triangle, but the price is held back by the global descending channel. It is not excluded that the price may test 2377-2370 before further growth, but at the moment the focus is on the nearest resistance zone.
Support levels: 2377, 2370
Resistance levels: 2391, 2400
Fundamentally, everything is quite positive for gold. Technically, the price is in consolidation, as traders are not ready to take serious actions early. But, all the attention is on the resistance, if the bulls manage to break 2390 and consolidate above, we will have a good chance to continue the growth.
Rate, share your opinion and questions, let's discuss what's going on with ★GOLD ;)
Regards R. Linda!
Advance Enzyme: Prempting a Cup and Handle Breakout!🚀 Advance Enzyme: Prempting a Cup and Handle Breakout! 🚀
Current Market Price: 425
Stop Loss: 330
Targets: 540, 640, 740
Advance Enzyme is on the verge of a significant move, showing signs of a cup and handle breakout. A monthly close above 429 could mark the end of a nearly 2-year consolidation, setting the stage for a big rally. A large wick in the chart suggests that strong momentum could come above 510. Additionally, a clear double rounding bottom pattern on the line chart indicates a potential breakout above 430, supported by the Fibonacci 62% level.
📉 Risk Management: Ensure to manage risk with a stop loss at 330.
📊 Disclaimer:
As a non-SEBI registered analyst, I recommend conducting thorough research or seeking advice from financial professionals before making investment decisions. Exciting times ahead!
#MarketAnalysis #AdvanceEnzyme #TechnicalAnalysis #CupAndHandle #InvestmentOpportunities #BreakoutTrading
MKR-USDT 4HHello everyone, I invite you to a quick review of MKR in pair with USDT on the 4H time frame. Let's start by discussing the movement, because we can see the upward exit from the local downtrend channel, which resulted in maintaining the upward trend line.
Currently, you can see that the price is approaching a significant resistance level of $2,986, when it breaks above it, the next resistance is at $3,256, and then a very strong resistance at $3,446.
However, if the current resistance rejects the price, we can see strong support at $2,688, further support at $2,419, and very strong support at $2,229.
STORJ / USDT → Wedge breakout with trend change target BINANCE:STORJUSDT shows positive dynamics to the change of trend and the beginning of bullrun. The coin is moving to the phase of implementation of a pattern that can change the direction of the market.
Bitcoin sets the general trend of the cryptvault market. The general fundamental background, which is formed around BTC and ETH sets positive prospects for other altcoins, which can still surprise us.
Technically, STORJ is coming out of consolidation and is essentially entering the distribution phase. A false break of the key resistance is formed, which can be broken after the next retest. High probability of a small correction before a subsequent attempt to break through this zone and enter a new range of 0.500 - 0.900.
Resistance levels: 0.4882, 0.6034
Support levels: 0.5 Fibo, 0.3530
The task of the bulls is to keep the defense above the key support, if it succeeds, the next target will be the breakout of resistance and bullrun.
Regards R. Linda!
ETHEREUM → False breakdown of MA-200 could lead to a BULLRUN ↑ BINANCE:ETHUSD in the correction phase, testing zones of interest (0.5 fibo and MA-200), forming a false breakdown, which in general can lead to a strong upward movement supported by strong fundamentals.
Fundamentally, ETH is quite positive. ETH-ETFs were launched on July 23 and continue to gain momentum. The correction, which has been observed for the last two days is mainly due to the outflow from GrayScale (exactly the same scenario was with BTC), also a slight pressure is created by the situation with Mt.Gox, but against the background of BTC transfers to exchanges and their distribution among its debtors, bitcoin is strengthening, such behavior of the flagship indicates support for eth.
Technically, the price is forming a correction to 0.5 fibo relative to the bullish momentum as well as a retest of the Daily MA-200, forming a false breakdown with a fairly aggressive buyback, indicating the presence of a strong buyer who is not ready to go down beyond $3000.
Resistance levels: 3357, 3540
Support levels: 3200, MA-200
The main task of the bulls is to keep the defense above the zone of interest at $3200. Further it remains to wait for resistance retest with the purpose of its breakthrough and further bull run to $4000 - $4500 - $4900.
Rate, share your opinion and questions, let's discuss what's going on with ★ BINANCE:ETHUSD
Regards R. Linda!