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Fibonacci Retracement

The doomsday retracementWow, what a week it has been. SPX down 3.5% and up 2.5% the day after. My thought is this backtrack is going to be the biggest retracement for the drop, just like we saw on bitcoin. APPL seems to have DOJ issues, NVIDIA chip issues in Taiwan... all seems to be lining up for potential lower for longer. My only buy this year will be TSLA. More on that. Goldilocks is not going to bring us back to pre-pandemic levels, rate cuts are not going to save the market. The narrative has already changed on July 17th when Trump said he didn't want to invade Taiwan, good luck buying after august.
EIGHTCAP:SPX500Short
by Osmanomics
1
XAUUSD: Get ready for a gold reboundOANDA:XAUUSD Yesterday, financial markets plummeted due to recession fears, but today global stock markets and stock index futures are rebounding. Gold, despite its drop, is expected to bounce back as a safe-haven asset. Interest rate futures have almost fully priced in a 50 basis point rate cut by the Fed in September Once recession risks are mitigated, gold's liquidity will make it a top safe-haven choice, especially as purchasing power declines. Additionally, ongoing geopolitical crises will keep influencing gold prices Technically, 2420 is a key level. Breaking it could open up more upside potential. If not, the downtrend may continue. The 2380-2360 area is strong support; if it holds, prices may rise again, but if broken, further downside is likely If you have different views or questions, let's discuss the latest insights on GOLD
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by AntonyTP
3
GOLD → False break of range support led to a reboundFX:XAUUSD reaches the liquidity zone of 2370, forming a false breakdown, confirms the presence of a strong range boundary. The market may move into a sideways trend. Fundamentally, the situation is still complicated. The U.S. regulators are trying to change the market's mind on the recession issue, trying to keep the market calm. The question of aggressive actions of regulators is still open. At the moment everyone is watching the actions in the Middle East, as the activity on the background of the war already unleashed can again affect the price of gold. Markets continue to estimate almost 90% probability of a 50 basis points cut in US interest rates in September. Let me remind you that it is not the fact of reduction that matters, but the hints and comments of regulators. At this time, gold is forming a global range of 2480 - 2370. Resistance levels: 2420 Support levels: 2400 Technically, gold may go into a consolidation phase, but in the future it is worth watching the resistance at 2420. As a pre-breakout consolidation or a quick retest may lead to a breakout attempt and growth Rate, share your opinion and questions, let's discuss what's going on with ★GOLD ;) Regards R. Linda!
FX:XAUUSDLong
by RLinda
5
GOLD → A retest of trend support. ISM PMI ahead...FX:XAUUSD is moving into the correction phase amid unstable fundamental environment. The price of the metal is declining towards the rather important zone of 2420, which has shown itself more than once. Fundamentally, the market is in fear because of possible recession, which may become a motivation for the Fed to take hasty actions and more aggressive easing of monetary policy Rumors are emerging about a possible emergency FED meeting in the near future. Not to forget gold as a hedge asset, which continues to feel supported in volatile times. Speculators are cautious and refrain from premature actions ahead of the ISM services PMI data and the tense situation in the Middle East. Support levels: 2419,6, 2403, 2382 Resistance levels: 2451, 2474 Technically, gold is at a strong support at 2419 and judging by the reaction of the price to the level, the buyers are acting quite aggressively, trying to hold the market. Against this background, the price may strengthen to the nearest resistance 2430, 2445, 2450, but if the price starts to return to 2419, forming a quick retest, it will increase the chances of a possible breakdown of the bullish channel and further decline to the zone of interest and liquidity. Rate, share your opinion and questions, let's discuss what's going on with ★GOLD ;) Regards R. Linda!
FX:XAUUSD
by RLinda
17
GBPUSD → Support retest amid falling dollarFX:GBPUSD is testing trend support for a breakout, but the situation is complicated by the difficult economic state of the Dollar... GBPUSD is going flat. Technically, GBPUSD could have a chic bullish outlook, provided buyers hold 1.27 support. Fundamentally, things are quite complicated, but more positive for the currency pair's growth: there is a high chance of recession in the US due to last week's unexpected data, indicating a very rapid slowdown in the economy. Rumors of the possibility of an emergency interest rate cut by the US Fed are forming. Also, in UK: Composite PMI +0.5%, Services PMI +0.4%). Technically: it is worth paying attention to the flat 1.28000 - 1.27000. If the bulls hold the lower boundary and bring prices back beyond 1.28 with further consolidation, we should expect a positive outcome and a northward course. Resistance levels: 1.2818, 1.2894 Support levels: 1.2707, 1.2615 Emphasis on this range, the flat boundaries play a key role for the medium-term perspective Rate, share your opinion and questions, let's discuss what's going on with ★GBPUSD ;) Regards R. Linda!
Long
by RLinda
7
All Eyes on Critical Support for Bitcoin!All eyes must now be watching BITSTAMP:BTCUSD 's flag support shown in the primary chart above. Since BTC's all-time high at $73,794, BTC has had a steady, yet volatile, pattern of consolidation that has fit within a downward sloping flag channel, often called a bull flag. Yet a bull flag isn't a bull flag anymore if the lower channel breaks down decisively. So that's why all eyes are on this support now. Interestingly, the yellow line in the primary chart above is a Fibonacci .618 retracement at $51,985. This .618 retracement coincides to some extent with flag support today. If the .618 retracement cannot provide support along with the descending channel's return line, then one can expect lower prices to retest, at a minimum, the major swing low on January 23, 2024. With an escalation in geopolitical conflict, prices can be more volatile than normal. This can mean that support / resistance boundaries are broken more easily. And false rallies and dips can be more fierce and seductive. So be careful out there! Even if relief rallies ensue, price may continue to struggle into next year. But don't rely on anyone's predictions—including mine! Try to stay objective, unbiased, and continue to watch what price is telling you—without trying to force your assumptions into the price action. In other words, what price is doing a week from now, a month from now, a year from now, will give you more information than virtually any trader or technical analyst can tell you. Lastly, here are some longer-term levels that can be watched in the event price breaks down further from this flag / channel.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by SquishTrade
3
BTC is approaching its bottom in the 51k areaIt seems that BTC is approaching its bottom in the 51k area, as seen from several indicators including: 1. Fibo 0.618 (goldenratio) correction from impulsive wave from January to March 2. Major support at 51k has not been visited since February 3. Finishing ABCDE correction wave 4. Bottom trendline descending channel formed since March 5. Liquidity heatmap is around 51k 6. CME gap at 58k has been filled, and another gap has emerged above in the 59.5k - 62k area 7. Fear and greed at 26 (FEAR)
CME:BTC1!Long
by wahing19
ETH-USDT 12HInterval Chart ReviewHello everyone, let's take a look at the ETH to USDT chart on a 12-hour time frame. How can we see how the downtrend channel has been defined for us, in which we are at the lower border. Let's start by determining the support line and here you can see how the support at $2,823 has been broken and we are currently approaching the strong support at $2,626, while when we start going further, the next support is around $2,392. Looking the other way, there is resistance at $2,922, and then the price will again have to face the resistance zone from $3,098 to $3,225.
by cryptodailyuk
Saudi wants production cuts, America doesn'tAlthough everyone is cutting down production, even SHELL, we are seeing the narrative of higher prices for longer. OPEC wants to cut beginning October 2024 until 25. This might be for a multitude of reasons, which makes it quite unclear what the goal is. After falling demand and easing in production, my narrative is that we might see prices fall instead of rise, even though we are trying to limit supply, I think markets are going to want to lower prices as energy scarcity becomes vulnerable and volatility will rise. Geopolitical risks has not eased. US SPR is lower than a quarter of its peak in 2021. My bet of dropping prices lies on that. As well as Trump having 70% chance of coming into office, I expect a welcoming gift from MBS giving us discounts on gas!
EIGHTCAP:USOUSDShort
by Osmanomics
NVIDIA updateRecently, test of finding a top turned out to be a success. However, after entering into an uptrend on lower timeframes, price had a sudden drop while it was nearing all-time highs. This puts in risk the first trade of the referenced idea at risk. The reason we get a sell signal is because: The recent raise in price action was not enough to overcome the downward movement of the correction. However, the 25 MA usually works as a key support-resistance. Therefore, it's currently being used as support, but if this support fails its likely price will return to the current lows where the 25 MA would most likely become resistance and would test price action before determining to create a new low or continue an uptrend. The best movement for technical uptrend health is a slight correction into current lows before forming a new uptrend. This movement will also be important for the SP:SPX as NASDAQ:NVDA holds a quite large share of the index at the moment. This could be the formations of the downtrend brought by the cyclicality of uptrends and downtrends. As it was mentioned in the referenced idea.
NASDAQ:NVDALong
by DarkMessiah777
4
NZD/JPY Daily setupThe NZD/JPY pair has fallen by 920 pips over the past 15 days. Such a significant and sustained decline is unlikely to continue indefinitely without a corrective pullback. Currently, the price has halted its downward momentum and is beginning to reverse near my key area of interest. Key Confluences: The pair is rebounding off a descending trend line that has been in place since November 2023. It is also bouncing off an ascending trend line that has been in place since August 2023. The price is reacting to the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level. It is rejecting the significant psychological level of 90.000. Market Structure The JPY basket has reached a resistance level and is starting to decline. These factors suggest a potential reversal or correction in the NZD/JPY pair. NZD/JPY 4hr TF Has currently closed on the 4 hour TF nicely I expect NZD/JPY to start having an healthy pull back. JPY Basket weekly TF Is currently reacting off my area of interest I expect price to start moving lower. JPY Basket Daily TF JPY Basket 4hr TF
Long
by ChartStrategist
2
Gold 4hr setup Gold is presently experiencing a bearish trend, characterized by a pattern of lower highs and lower lows since peaking at 2484.14. I anticipate that gold will encounter resistance at the temporary rejection level before declining further. Subsequently, I expect it to rebound and ascend to my target area, which is approximately between 2400 and 2402.02. Confluences supporting this analysis include: A downward trendline indicating a continuation of the bearish trend. An upward trendline suggesting a potential reversal point. A rejection zone between 2400 and 2402.02, which is a significant area of interest. The round number of 2,400, often a psychological level in trading. The 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level Market structure. Expectations of the US Dollar strengthening. Gold Daily Dollar Index Silver
TVC:GOLDShort
by ChartStrategist
2
ETH-USDT 12HHello everyone, let's take a look at the ETH to USDT chart on the 12h time frame. As you can see, the price broke out of the falling triangle, which resulted in a strong downward price movement. Let's start by determining the support line, but here you can see how we are first in the support zone, but if we fall lower, the next support is at $2,823 and then we have strong support at $2,626. Looking the other way, we have visible resistance at $3,146, then strong resistance at $3,263, and then the price must overcome the strong resistance zone from $3,441 to $3,566.
by cryptodailyuk
GOLD → Ahead of NFP. Shall we get to 2500?FX:XAUUSD is making new highs and approaching a strong resistance zone from which a small correction may follow before a further rise. NFP is ahead, which may set a short-term backdrop The dollar is in a sideways range ahead of the news, which generally indicates a neutral mood among traders. Strong news can either renew the dollar's decline, which will be favorable for gold, or have the opposite reaction, so it is necessary to look at the actual data. Technically, the gold is approaching the ATH and there is a high probability that the price will not only test the high, but also update it. In general, the fundamental and technical background is positive this week and I think that in the short and medium term we should wait for the continuation of growth. Resistance levels: 2368, 2475, 2483 Support levels: 2451, 2440, 2430 Gold reduces volatility before the news as speculators go into wait-and-see mode. High volatility is expected, on this background the price may test the support before further growth. But if the resistance of 2483-2475 is broken at once, the price may go to 2500-2550. Rate, share your opinion and questions, let's discuss what's going on with ★GOLD ; Regards R. Linda!
FX:XAUUSDLong
by RLinda
20
SMCI: The Next Major Inflection Point! (D&W charts)On the daily chart, the stock experienced a notable downward breakout, moving sharply below a confluence of trendlines that had previously served as support. This breakout is significant as it suggests a strong bearish momentum, possibly indicating a shift in investor sentiment. The price is below the 21-day EMA, and there is no bottom signal on it yet. In our previous public SMCI analysis, I warned you about this trend line, as a downwards breakout would frustrate any possibility of a bullish thesis, mid-term speaking. The link to our previous study, here on TradingView, is below this post. Transitioning to the weekly chart provides a broader perspective, showing the stock's performance over a longer timeframe. Here, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level stands out as the next significant support level following the recent declines. This specific Fibonacci level is often watched by traders for potential reversal zones and could act as a strong area of interest for buying activities if prices were to reach this point. The weekly chart also underscores a general downtrend after failing to maintain higher levels, which aligns with the bearish sentiment observed on the daily chart. The consistency of lower highs further emphasizes the pressure on the stock. Overall, the convergence of these technical factors across different timeframes suggests that SMCI may face continued downward pressure in the near term, with crucial support at the 61.8% Fibonacci level possibly serving as a pivotal area for the stock's next directional moves. For more detailed technical analyses and insights like this, be sure to follow my account. Your support helps me continue providing valuable content to help you make informed trading decisions. Remember, real trading is reactive, not predictive, so let's stay focused on the key points described above and only trade when there is confirmation. “To anticipate the market is to gamble. To be patient and react only when the market gives the signal is to speculate.” — Jesse Lauriston Livermore All the best, Nathan.
NASDAQ:SMCI
by Nathan_The_Finance_Hydra
2
GBPJPY → Ahead of a rate hike in Japan...FX:GBPJPY intends to continue the current bearish rally. The price temporarily stops at the 197.00 zone for a short respite before falling further. The market is expecting an interest rate hike in Japan... Price breaks the bullish market structure and then confirms the bearish one, indicating a change in the global trend. Volatility is rising in Japanese markets, with the Bank of Japan expected to discuss a rate hike this week and consider a plan to halve government bond purchases. This is a strong scenario for the strengthening of the national currency, traders are reducing the number of short positions this time. Technically, the focus is on the level of 197.2, this zone splits the market into two zones. Accordingly, price consolidation below this level will be the starting point before the rally. Support levels: 195.8, 193.8, 191.8 Resistance levels: 197.2, 198.75 Both fundamentally and technically everything is steamed towards further decline. The actions of the Central Bank of Japan affect the rate quite strongly... Rate, share your opinion and questions, let's discuss what's going on with ★GBPJPY ;) Regards R. Linda!
Short
by RLinda
5