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Fibonacci Retracement

USDCHF: Key Level Rejection, Fibonacci Retracement ExpectedPrice recently broke out of the daily (D) descending channel. It then pushed up to meet the daily (D) 50% Fibonacci retracement level, converging with resistance. Price then rejected this level and pushed down to retest support before breaking out of the four-hour (4H) downtrend line, suggesting strong bullish momentum. Price then pushed up and reached the daily (D) key level and converged with yet another 50% Fibonacci level. Price has proceeded to reject this level, highlighting temporary reversal and suggesting a possible retracement. I expect price to temporarily retrace to around the 38.2% level before continuing to the upside. **Rationale:** **Rationale:** ~ (L1): Breakout of channel (D) ~ (L2): Retest of support (D) ~ (L3): Break of trendline (4H) ~ (L4): Retest of support ~ (L5): Fib retracement convergence + Rejection ~ (F1): 38.3% Fib retracement **Disclaimer:** My trading ideas are market predictions and therefore should be viewed as such. As an intraday trader (scalper), I use my observations to identify potential trade opportunities on the higher time frames. I then aim to pinpoint key entry points on the lower time frames. Entries should always be verified by additional confirmations. --- #scalping #intraday
Short
by Forexity
EURUSD → Weak market. The target is 1.06. But, news... FX:EURUSD is forming a consolidation, characteristic of a pre-breakout, against a key support line as the dollar index continues to gain support and hold north. A strong bearish situation is developing on D1. There is no strong buyer in the market that can turn around a weak market under pressure from strong bears. The market is below the MA200-MA50 daily moving averages and is also forming consolidation relative to the support, which with a high degree of probability speaks about the intentions to go lower. On H4 the price is in consolidation, above the local maximum is the area of liquidity, as well as resistance, which can test the market before the subsequent decline. BUT! Today's news. Traders are waiting for PCE inflation data.... Resistance levels: 1.07238, 1.07816 Support levels: 1.0664, 1.0606 Technically and fundamentally, the currency pair is in a neutral-negative outlook. If the fundamental background does not change today, I will still stick to the downward movement to 1.06- 1.055. Regards R. Linda!
Short
by RLinda
7
GBPCAD → Trend Change. The fall may continue to 1.710OANDA:GBPCAD breaks the uptrend, a bearish rally is forming and the price is testing local support. A break of the liquidity area will renew the sell-off against a weaker GBP and a rising CAD. Pound sterling is moving from accumulation to realization and downward distribution on the background of expectations that the UK central bank will start an earlier interest rate cut relative to the US Fed. The Canadian, on the contrary, is growing on the background of monetary policy tightening in the country. The resistance at 1.7336 plays a key role for the currency pair at the moment. A false breakdown (touching the SMA) is possible before the subsequent price drop, a breakdown of 1.7297 will strengthen the sell-off. Resistance levels: 1.7336, 1.7387, 1.7415. Support levels: 1.7297, 1.7228 I expect consolidation in the local range, which may turn into a phase of further decline. Key liquidity zones are 1.7228 - 1.7085. Regards R. Linda!
Short
by RLinda
1
Assessing Forex Dynamics: EUR/USD Analysis📅 Let's dive into today's analysis. We're focusing on the EUR/USD pair, which shows the value of the Euro against the US Dollar. This analysis will help us understand whether the US or European economy is stronger. 🧩 To better compare these currencies, it's helpful to also consider the DXY chart. For a full DXY analysis, you can find the link in the description. In that analysis, I mentioned that the DXY is likely to trend downward in the long term because the interest rate has reached 5.5%, which is quite high. The US might soon need to start lowering interest rates. However, since the inflation target in the US is 2%, the interest rate could reach 6% to control the current 3.3% inflation and bring it down to 2%. 💶 On the other hand, the economic situation in Europe is better than in the US, with both better interest rates and lower inflation. The average interest rate in Europe is 3.75%, and the average inflation rate is 2.4%. So, if the US eventually begins to lower its interest rate, the EUR/USD could start moving upwards. 🔍 Let's look at the chart. In the weekly timeframe, we see a downtrend in the High Wave Cycle, which is currently undergoing a correction up to 0.618. In the Medium Wave Cycle, within the downtrend correction, there's an uptrend that, after reaching 0.618 of our larger cycle, entered a correction phase down to 0.5. Currently, in the Low Wave Cycle, we are ranging, and we need to see whether the HWC or MWC will dominate to determine the next market move. 🧲 In the LWC, there's also a descending trendline that has brought the price down to the middle of the range box, and now the price is at 1.06245. This trendline could start a bearish momentum, but since it formed within a range box, it's unreliable. 📉 If 1.06245 is broken, the price could move down to 1.05195. A break of 106.723 in the DXY could confirm this breakdown. If the 0.5 area, which overlaps with 1.05195, is broken, the price could move to at least the 0.618 Fibonacci level. However, since the HWC is bearish, the downtrend might be much more significant. 📈 If the trendline is broken to the upside, after the trigger, we can expect the price to move to the top of the range box. In the DXY, a break of 104.5 could be suitable for confirmation. The main long trigger is 1.10464. The first barrier for the price is 1.12015, overlapping with the 0.618 level, which might hold the price for a few weeks. But if this area is surpassed, the price could move to 1.16558. 🎲 Moving to the daily timeframe, there's a gently sloping ascending trendline supporting the price, and a compression has formed in recent days. There's a hidden static line, not immediately apparent, but I've marked it in black on the chart. 📈 For a long position, we can enter riskily upon breaking 1.07370, but as I mentioned, it's a risky position, so the risk taken should be less than usual. The next long trigger is 1.09023, and if this trigger breaks, we can move to 1.11055. The final long trigger is the break of the range box top at 1.11055. 📉 For a short position, we first need to wait for the ascending trendline to break and then for 1.06687 to break. In this case, we can move to 1.06136, the main trigger for breaking the trend. Breaking this support can take us to the bottom of the range box. The third short trigger is breaking the bottom of the range box at 1.04610. 📝In conclusion, the EUR/USD pair is at a crucial juncture with potential for both upward and downward movements depending on key trigger levels. Keep an eye on economic indicators from both the US and Europe, and use strict risk management strategies to navigate the market. 🧠💼 Always remember the inherent risks in forex trading. Adhere to strict capital management principles, use stop-loss orders, and aim for an initial target with a risk-to-reward ratio of at least 2. 🫶 If you found this analysis helpful and want to support me, please boost this analysis. Feel free to leave a comment or suggest a currency pair you'd like me to analyze next.
Long
by itsparham96
4
GOLD → Correction before the news. Bears may resist ↓FX:XAUUSD after falling to 2293 is forming a correction before the news as traders are shrugging off fear of unpredictability. Important news ahead that determines the medium term strategy Traders are waiting for US GDP and PCE inflation data. Bullish data against the dollar could hurt the price of gold quite a bit, which could head towards 2220 and get a downward correction phase change to a downtrend. Regulators are still sticking to the fact that inflation is high and it is still hard to fight it. Technically, price is forming a bounce. Local rally is directed towards interest and liquidity: 2315-2325. Possible retest of local resistance before the news, if the general mood does not change, the fall will continue from the above zones. But, a break of the resistance at 2325 will bring the market back to the range boundaries.... Resistance levels: 2315, 2325, 2332 Support levels: 2306, 2397, 2287 Unpredictable news makes trading difficult, but based on the current data the market is bearish, there is no big buyer yet, local data may form a shakeout and increased volatility, after the exhaustion of which traders may return to sell-offs of metal Regards R. Linda!
FX:XAUUSDShort
by RLinda
22
AUD/USD Upside Bias Supported by Hot AU InflationAustralian inflation accelerated 4% y/y in May, according to Wednesday’s data, marking the fastest pace in six months. The Reserve Bank of Australia was already worried around price pressures and had once again discussed raising rates during this month’s hold, while keeping the door open to further tightening. Yesterday’s hot CPI report likely aggravated these concerns and strengthens the case for a rate hike, while diminishing chances for a shift to a less restrictive chance this year. AUD/USD erased its gains yesterday after the initial jump, but remains constructive and the monetary policy differential supports further upside. The US Fed is reluctant to pivot, but still sees a rate cut this year, while markets are more aggressive and price in two moves. The technicals are also favorable, since the Aussie has defended the 38.2% Fibonacci of the last leg up and trades above the EMA200 (black line). This provide a solid basis for higher highs (0.6714) that would bring the 2024 peak in the spotlight (0.6839), although bulls don’t inspire yet confidence for challenging it. On the other hand, the bar is high for further tightening by the RBA, while the weak Australian economy creates pressure for an easier monetary stance. The Fed meanwhile expects just one cut this year, due to the disinflation slowdown, which supports the greenback. As such, the there is scope for renewed pressure towards the pivotal 38.2% Fibonacci and the daily Ichimoku Cloud, but sustained weakness below it is not easy given the favorable monetary policy differential. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 68% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider . You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (trading as “FXCM” or “FXCM EU”), previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider . You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763). Please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this video are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interests arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed via FXCM`s website: Stratos Markets Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Europe Ltd clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Trading Pty. Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC clients please see: www.fxcm.com Past Performance is not an indicator of future results.
Long
by FXCM
GOLD → An attempt to break H4-D1 support. Fear?FX:XAUUSD is updating the low. The breakdown of the structure confirms the dominant bearish potential. But, the price is moving reluctantly in anticipation of the news. There could be a retest of resistance (trap) before falling. The dollar is strongly bullish. The US market situation is difficult and regulators have hinted more often about rate hike, inflation is uncontrollably rising and this is a negative scenario for the markets. The situation in the Middle East is heating up: the Israeli army continues to pull heavy military equipment to the borders of Lebanon. The intensification of the conflict will increase the interest in gold as a safe-haven asset. At the moment, technically, gold is in a selling zone, as the price is breaking the strong support area H4-D1. A retest is possible before the subsequent fall (if the overall fundamental environment does not change dramatically). Resistance levels: 2326, 2332, 2341 Support levels: 2315, 2306, 2297 Traders are waiting for the US GDP, which will be released tomorrow. Traders expect the DXY to continue its northward course, accordingly, the expensive dollar on gold may have a negative impact... Regards R. Linda!
FX:XAUUSDShort
by RLinda
32
PEPE → The end of the correction may take us back to an uptrend BINANCE:PEPEUSDT - the meme coin is showing signs of a possible end to the correction and a return of price to the bullish trend continuation phase. On the local timeframe, the price forms an exit beyond the resistance of the descending channel, characteristic of the correction against the background of the bullish trend. Against the background of bitcoin capitulation and the general mass of altcoins, the meme coin PEPE looks quite cheerful. The price can move into the phase of the 5th wave realization if the bulls can keep the defense above 0.0000114. The next boundary is the range resistance. The breakout of this area will be a green traffic light signal for the buyers, the potential of which could strengthen the price towards ATH Resistance levels: 0.0000125 Support levels: 0.0000114, 0.00001084 I expect that the bulls will do their job and will soon be able to bring the price to the nearest resistance, where a fierce struggle for further space between buyers and sellers may take place. Regards R. Linda!
Long
by RLinda
7
USDJPY → False break of support, Yen weakens. 160.0 again?FX:USDJPY fell under the correction wave, which was caused by the liquidation of buyers based on the change in the fundamental sentiment of the dollar index. It didn't last long. Buyers liquidation on the back of strong bullish trend. (A big player collects the position) In general, both technically and fundamentally, the situation remains unfavorable for the Japanese yen. The national currency may continue to weaken and thus test the current ATH. False breakdown of trend support brings the price back to the range of 155.95-157.23. Possible retest of resistance with the subsequent breakout and growth to the far liquidity zones. Resistance levels: 157.23, 158.44 Support levels: 155.95, 154.77 The bulls should hold the defense above 155.95 with the aim to continue rising. The intermediate key point is 157.23 with the possibility of further breakout and growth. Regards R. Linda!
Long
by RLinda
10
NZDUSD Possible retest and continuation to the downsideThe price recently broke out of the ascending channel (4H) and went on to retest the recent swing high, creating an Equal High (EQH). It then rejected the wedge (W) and downtrend line (M) resistance convergence and continued to push downward. Currently, the price is converging with resistance and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. We anticipate that the price may continue to reject this resistance area and push further to the downside. **Rationale:** ~ Wedge (W) and downtrend line (M) resistance convergence ~ Multiple rejections of resistance ~ Shallow pullback (Fib 38.2%) resistance convergence ~ Possible retest ~ Possible lower low formation **Disclaimer:** My trading ideas are market predictions and therefore should be viewed as such. As an intraday trader (scalper), I use my observations to identify potential trade opportunities on the higher time frames. I then aim to pinpoint key entry points on the lower time frames. Entries should always be verified by additional confirmations. --- #scalping #intraday
Short
by Forexity
USDCHF Tests Critical Resistance on Dovish SNBHaving pivoted away from its tightening cycle in March, the Swiss National Bank delivered the second straight rate cut last week, making it a frontrunner in the shift to monetary easing. Officials also lowered their inflation forecasts, creating scope for more moves ahead. Its US counterpart on the other hand, is reluctant to pivot due to stubborn inflation and Fed officials see just one cut this year. This monetary policy divergence is beneficial for USD/CHF, which surges after the SNB back-to-back rate cut. It now tries to take out a pivotal resistance cluster, comprising of the EMA200 (black line), the 38.2% Fibonacci of the last decline and the daily Ichimoku Cloud. Successful effort will give control back to the bulls and allow them to look towards the 2024 peak (0.9225-46), but this may prove elusive in the near term. On the other hand, with two rate cuts already under their belt, Swiss policymakers may become less bold. Furthermore, the Fed may have adopted a higher for longer stance, but still sees less restrictive stance ahead and markets are more optimistic, pricing in two rate cuts within the year. Overbought conditions indicated by the RSI and the aforementioned critical resistance confluence, can put pressure on USD/CHF. So a pullback that would challenge 0.8825 would not be surprising, but deeper losses towards and beyond 0.8730 are not compatible with the monetary policy dynamics. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 68% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (trading as “FXCM” or “FXCM EU”), previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763). Please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this video are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interests arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed via FXCM`s website: Stratos Markets Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Europe Ltd clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Trading Pty. Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC clients please see: www.fxcm.com Past Performance is not an indicator of future results.
Long
by FXCM
Gold OverviewGold has broken its 1H Trend line and Retested it again now its moving downwards to our daily Resistance (POI) its a Significant level of Almost on each higher time frame as its Support level over Weekly and monthly charts so we are keeping an eye over this level a long time now as we have said that we are waiting for Some fundamental data which is too significant in this scenario we are waiting home sales data in our favor and gold will likely to rise today but its too early to give any opinion so we will wait for news and then put our position as we have taken a short trade with almost 1.94 R:R which is currently runing Keep your Losses tight and targets higher only thing in market to take care is your balance and your losses
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Wakeel_Saab
GOLD → Trading inside the range. 2340 zone of interest FX:XAUUSD is not preparing to leave the local ascending channel (the nature of the channel is corrective-consolidation), as traders do not seek premature action before the news The U.S. market is facing another problem: slowing economic growth and rising inflation is leading to recession, no matter how much the authorities deny it. Accordingly, the phase of active currency support may continue and this may have a negative impact on the metal price. Today CB Consumer Confidence - the indicator can give some idea about the mood on the market, but in general traders are waiting for the US GDP, which will be published on Thursday. Neutral data is expected, but there is a high probability that the actual data will be different from the expected... Resistance levels: 2341, 2354 Support levels: 2326, 2315, 2305 The general mood is neutral, the big players are not in a hurry to act and are consolidating. Technically, gold may strengthen to 2340 (area of interest and liquidity) within the range. The bulls may stop the micro rally and turn the price to the support, if the market maker is not enough, the price may strengthen to 2354 before coming back down Regards R. Linda!
FX:XAUUSDShort
by RLinda
6
NOT/USDT Bullish Global 3rd Elliott WaveWithin the ascending channel, a five-wave impulse and an ABC correction have been completed, reaching the 0.618 Fibonacci level. The price has encountered the first resistance level (res). Based on the fractal from the initial five-wave pattern, there is potential for growth towards the upper boundary of the channel, into the Fibonacci zone 1.236 - 1.382. From there, an ABC correction is expected towards the Fibonacci zones of the second subwave 3(2) of the global third wave. Subsequently, I anticipate the formation of the first subwave of the third global wave 3(3-1). The Alligator indicator shows an upward trend. There is a support level (sup) below. The scenario will be invalidated if there is a breakout and consolidation below the support zone (sup).
Long
by WoWAcEDuDe
Frankly, I don't feel like explaining, the chart says it all !!BINANCE:ETHUSDT After this downward movement , price now it is close to the most important Fibonacci level, which after reaching it, the price can react. ✨Traders, if you liked this idea or have your opinion on it, write in the comments, We will be glad. _ _ _ _ __ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ ✅Thank you, and for more ideas, hit ❤️Like❤️ and 🌟Follow🌟! ⚠️Things can change... The markets are always changing and even with all these signals, the market changes tend to be strong and fast!!
COINBASE:ETHUSDLong
by CobraVanguard
1
TSLA: Key Support Levels and Potential Breakout (1H/D charts).Hourly Chart: Critical Support at 167.75 The hourly chart for TSLA highlights a crucial support level at 167.75, reinforced by the 50% Fibonacci retracement, marked in yellow. This price area acted as a support twice, one time in May 10, and another one in June 11, indicating its importance. The purple ascending trendline suggests a potential upward movement if the support holds. However, the resistance level at 186.88, marked by the black line, must be closely monitored as it has repeatedly acted as a barrier to price advances. Daily Chart: Congestion and Key Levels On the daily chart, the congestion zone around 167.75 is evident, indicating a period of price consolidation. This congestion area suggests indecision in the market, often preceding a significant price move. The key resistance at 186.88 aligns with the hourly chart, making it a crucial level for us to watch. A break above this level could signal a potential breakout, while a failure could lead to a retest of lower support levels. The 186.88 level is a significant resistance point. A break above this level, confirmed by strong volume, could indicate a bullish breakout, providing a potential buying opportunity. If the support at 167.75 fails, the next significant support level is at 138.80, marked by the black line. This level should be monitored for potential buying opportunities if prices decline further. Key Considerations - Support Holding: The double support at 167.75 has shown strength. Its ability to hold in the future will be crucial for any bullish scenarios. - Breakout Potential: The congestion and repeated tests of resistance at 186.88 suggest a significant move is imminent. We should be prepared for a potential breakout or a sharp move downwards if resistance holds, and if its price misses the short-term support lines seen on the hourly chart. Conclusion The TSLA charts suggest a period of consolidation with critical support at 167.75 and resistance at 186.88. We should closely monitor these levels for potential trading opportunities. A break above the resistance could signal a bullish move to the $206, while a failure to hold support might indicate further downside. For more detailed technical analyses and insights like this, be sure to follow my account. Your support helps me continue providing valuable content to help you make informed trading decisions. Remember, real trading is reactive, not predictive, so let's stay focused on the key points described above and only trade when there is confirmation. “ To anticipate the market is to gamble. To be patient and react only when the market gives the signal is to speculate. ” — Jesse Lauriston Livermore All the best, Nathan.
NASDAQ:TSLA
by Nathan_The_Finance_Hydra
GOLD → Correction after the rally. Bears still dominateFX:XAUUSD has been strengthening since the opening of the session, buyers are trying to hold the defense above 2325 and redeem part of Friday's fall. Fundamental background remains negative. Idea: GOLD → Bears are engulfing the market. What's next? We discussed a possible rebound and the strength of the bear market. The price consolidation above the strong support at 2326 opens the range for maneuvering and may allow traders to strengthen to 2341 (2354) - the area of interest, the target of such maneuvering may be the liquidity inside the range, formed within Friday's rally by those who tried to catch the departing train. If 2341 will be confirmed and the bears will not let the price go beyond its limits, the market may go into the sell-off phase again. Investors this week are interested in GDP and PCE, which are released in the second half of the week, the first half of the trading week may be relatively quiet. Resistance levels: 2341, 2354 Support levels: 2325, 2315, channel support I expect the correction to continue to the area of liquidity and interest. A major player may gather the rest of the potential before further movement in one direction or the other. Watch the price reaction to the level of 2341, which may determine either a fall or further growth to 2354. Regards R. Linda!
FX:XAUUSDShort
by RLinda
2
DXY Weekly Analysis and Its Impact on Forex PairsLet's dive into today's analysis. Today, I want to share a Forex analysis with you, focusing on the DXY index. The timeframe for this analysis is weekly, but we'll also take a look at other timeframes. 🧲 Long-Term Support First, let's examine the curved trend line on the monthly timeframe, which has been significant since 2008, acting like a magnet attracting the price. This trend line is a crucial support for the dollar and has kept the overall trend of the dollar bullish for years. 🔑 Key Resistance Levels Additionally, in this timeframe, if we apply a Fibonacci extension from the previous wave, we see that the top of this wave, which corresponds to 113.7, has completed at the 1 level. If this peak is breached, we could move up to 1.618, which is 131. However, there's a significant resistance at 119.76. 📰 Interest Rates and Economic Outlook Given that the US interest rate is already high, it's unlikely to increase further beyond 5.5% as it could harm the US economy in the long term. On the other hand, inflation has reached 3.25%, nearing the 2% target. Therefore, there's no reason to raise interest rates further. If they start reducing the interest rates, we could see an uptrend in stock markets like crypto and renowned global stocks such as Apple, Microsoft, Tesla, etc. If this happens, the DXY trend will turn bearish and could potentially drop back to the 89.59 support. 📅 Weekly Timeframe Analysis In the weekly timeframe, the curved trend line is also evident, and the price is near this trend. Drawing Fibonacci from the previous wave shows that the price has bounced back from the 0.5 level, overlapping with the old support at 101.195, and has created a range box between this area and the 0.236 level at 106.723, forming since late 2022. 📈 If 106.723 is breached, we could target 113.701 and the next target at 119.76. However, due to anticipated rate cuts, I believe the USD will remain bearish and won't go beyond 113. 📉 For a decline, if 101.195 breaks and the Federal Reserve starts lowering rates, we could expect a drop to the 0.618 and 0.786 Fibonacci levels, which are 98.023 and 94.374, respectively. 🔎 RSI Indicator The RSI is ranging between 66.02 and 34.17. Given that FOMO is less powerful in the Forex market compared to crypto, if we reach either of these numbers, it might be time to take profits as the trend could weaken. 💵 Impact on EURUSD and USDCAD 🇪🇺 EUR/USD If the DXY drops, we might see the EUR/USD break the 1.1064 resistance, and even move towards 1.1205, and then target 1.16588 and 1.22423. However, 1.22423 seems distant and unrealistic given Europe's current strength. In case of a DXY increase, the EUR/USD could head towards the historical low of 0.96801 after breaking 1.05195, though it's likely to find support sooner. 🇨🇦 USD/CAD For USD/CAD, a rising DXY could push it to 1.43687 after breaking 1.38713. Conversely, if the DXY drops, the trend line might break, and after breaking 1.31457, it could move towards 1.20374. 📝 Conclusion In summary, the DXY index is at a critical juncture with significant supports and resistances on both the monthly and weekly timeframes. Anticipated changes in US interest rates could significantly impact its trend. While the USD may see some strength in the short term, a long-term bearish trend seems likely, particularly if interest rates begin to decrease. This will, in turn, affect major Forex pairs like EUR/USD and USD/CAD, with potential bullish moves in EUR/USD and bearish moves in USD/CAD depending on the DXY's movement. Always remember to conduct thorough research and apply sound risk management in your trading strategies.
TVC:DXYShort
by itsparham96
4